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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

QBO Responses to Increased CO2: The Roles of Convection and SSTs

Long-term changes to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Recent multimodel investigations (Richter et al. 2020a, Butchart et al. 2020) suggest that QBO amplitude will weaken in the future, but trends in QBO period and stability are unclear. Additionally, the parameterizations that generate the QBO in CMIP6 models vary greatly, and about half of CMIP6 models do not represent the QBO at all (Richter et al. 2020b). Tropical convection is likely to play a role in QBO trends, yet a majority of gravity wave parameterizations in QBO-resolving models are fixed and cannot respond to changes in convection. We consider future changes of the QBO using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2.2, which has a realistic QBO produced partly through use of a non-orographic gravity wave drag scheme that explicitly links lower stratospheric momentum fluxes to convection (Rind et al., 2014, 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). The experiments include historical integrations and abrupt increases in CO which we use to probe the roles of convection and SST feedbacks. Overall, both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to CO2, and our results link the period response to changes in convection and the amplitude response to changes in upwelling.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)↗
NASA NTRS2021

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO2

Long-term projections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Using the high-top \Middle Atmosphere" (MA) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE (E2.2-AP), we show that increased CO2 reduces the QBO period and weakens its amplitude, consistent with results from recent multimodel studies. The amplitude response is asymmetric, with the easterly phase weakening more than the westerly phase. Results from both coupled atmosphere{ocean and climatologically fixed sea surface temperature simulations link the period response to changes in parameterized convective gravity wave fluxes, whereas the amplitude changes are more closely tied to changes in tropical upwelling. Comparisons of simulations with and without ozone-dynamical feedbacks reveal that ozone feedbacks increase the QBO amplitude and period in pre-industrial control simulations, and reduce the response of the amplitude to increased CO2. The response of stratospheric tracers to projected changes in the QBO is also investigated. Similarity between results using fully interactive (trace gas and aerosol) versus linearized ozone chemical mechanisms suggests that the QBO response to CO2 does not depend on additional chemical feedbacks beyond those associated with ozone, which implies that projected QBO changes may be credibly represented using simpli fied stratospheric ozone schemes.

GISS Model E2.2-AP↗
NASA NTRS2019

Chapter Five - Remote sensing techniques for estimating evaporation

Evaporation of water from the Earth’s surface into the atmosphere is central to the terrestrial energy, water, and carbon cycle. Remote sensing approaches to measure evaporation (ET) combine observable inputs to the energy and water balance within statistical or process-based methodologies. These ET products draw on satellite observations from across the electromagnetic spectrum. The ET retrievals are grouped in two main categories. One category includes approaches that combine meteorological descriptions of potential evaporation with a range of strategies to estimate evaporative stress. A second category includes surface energy balance approaches that retrieve latent heat from the thermal signatures. For each category a practical implementation example is described, including an outlook on progress towards multimodel assessment of global evaporation.

Evaporation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗
NASA NTRS2021

Improving Surface PM2.5 Forecasts in the United States Using an Ensemble of Chemical Transport Model Outputs: 2. Bias Correction with Satellite Data for Rural Areas

This work serves as the second of a two-part study to improve surface PM2.5 forecasts in the continental U.S. through the integrated use of multi satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products (MODIS Terra/Aqua and VIIRS DT/DB), multichemical transport model (CTM) (GEOS-Chem, WRF-Chem, and CMAQ) outputs, and ground observations. In Part I of the study, an ensemble Kalman filter (KF) technique using three CTM outputs and ground observations was developed to correct forecast bias and generate a single best forecast of PM2.5 for next day over non rural areas that have surface PM2.5 measurements in the proximity of 125 km. Here, with AOD data, we extended the bias correction into rural areas where the closest air quality monitoring station is at least 125–300 km away. First, we ensembled all of satellite AOD products to yield the single best AOD. Second, we corrected daily PM2.5 in rural areas from multiple models through the AOD spatial pattern between these areas and non rural areas, referred to as “extended ground truth” or EGT, for the present day. Lastly, we applied the KF technique to reduce the forecast bias for next day using the EGT. Our results find that the ensemble of bias-corrected daily PM2.5 from three CTMs for both today and next day show the best performance. Together, the two-part study develops a multimodel and multi-AOD bias-correction technique that has the potential to improve PM2.5 forecasts in both rural and non rural areas in near real time, and be readily implemented at state levels.

Huanxin Zhang↗
DOE OSTI2018

Calibrating Climate Model Ensembles for Assessing Extremes in a Changing Climate

Climate models serve as indispensable tools to investigate the effect of anthropogenic emissions on current and future climate, including extremes. However, as low-dimensional approximations of the climate system, they will always exhibit biases. Several attempts have been made to correct for biases as they affect extremes prediction, predominantly focused on correcting model-simulated distribution shapes. In this study, the effectiveness of a recently published quantile-based bias correction scheme, as well as a new subset selection method introduced here, are tested out-of-sample using model-as-truth experiments. Results show that biases in the shape of distributions tend to persist through time, and therefore, correcting for shape bias is useful for past and future statements characterizing the probability of extremes. However, for statements characterized by a ratio of the probabilities of extremes between two periods, we find that correcting for shape bias often provides no skill improvement due to the dominating effect of bias in the long-term trend. Using a toy model experiment, we examine the relative importance of the shape of the distribution versus its position in response to long-term changes in radiative forcing. It confirms that the relative position of the two distributions, based on the trend, is at least as important as the shape. We encourage the community to consider all model biases relevant to their metric of interest when using a bias correction procedure and to construct out-of-sample tests that mirror the intended application.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in seasonal precipitation extremes over the United States in CMIP6 simulations

Quantifying how climate change may impact precipitation extremes is a priority for informing adaptation and policy planning. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 global climate models are analyzed to identify robust signals of projected changes in summer and winter precipitation extremes over the United States (US). Under a projected fossil-fuel based economic (i.e. high greenhouse gas emissions) scenario, our results show consistent changes in the seasonal patterns for many precipitation extremes by the end of the 21st century. We find a robust projected increase in the intensity of winter precipitation across models, with less agreement during the summer. Similarly, a robust projected amplification of heavy precipitation over the northern US is evident in winter, while intermodel spread is prevalent in summer projections. Specifically, the heavy and very heavy winter precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm) exhibit larger increases compared to other aspects of precipitation. Additionally, changes in dry extremes (e.g. consecutive dry days) are found to differ significantly across various subregions and seasons. Overall, our results suggest that the US may suffer more natural disasters such as floods and droughts in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal?

Abstract We use six Earth system models (ESMs) run under SSP3-7.0, a scenario characterized by a relatively large land use change (LUC) over the 21st century, and under a variant of the same scenario where a significantly different pattern of LUC, taken from SSP1-2.6, was used, all else being equal. Our goal is to identify changes in climate extremes between the two scenarios that are statistically significant and robust across the ESMs. The motivation for this study is to test a long-held assumption of the shared socio-economic pathway-representative concentration pathway (SSP-RCP) scenario framework: that the signal from LUC can be safely disregarded when pairing different SSPs to the compatible RCPs, where compatibility only considers global radiative forcing, predominantly determined by well-mixed greenhouse gasses emissions. We analyze extremes of daily minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation, after fitting non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in a way that borrows strength along the length of the simulation (2015–2100) and across initial condition ensembles. We consider changes in the 20 year return levels (RL20s) of these metrics by 2100, and focus on eight locations where LUC is large within each scenario, and strongly differs between scenarios, averaging the RL20s over a neighborhood characterized by the same LUC to enhance the signal to noise. We find that precipitation extremes do not show significant differences attributable to LUC differences. For temperature extremes (cold and hot) results are mixed, with some location-index combination showing significant results for some of the ESMs but not all, and not many coherent changes appearing for indices across regions, or regions across indices. These ESMs are representative of what is typically adopted as the source of climate information for impact studies, when the SSP-RCP framework is put to use. Overall, our analysis suggests that the hypothesis to pair SSPs to RCPs in a flexible fashion is overall defensible. However, the appearance of some coherence in a few locations and for some indices invites further investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Multiphysics Simulations: Challenges and Opportunities

We consider multiphysics applications from algorithmic and architectural perspectives, where ‘‘algorithmic’’ includes both mathematical analysis and computational complexity, and ‘‘architectural’’ includes both software and hardware environments. Many diverse multiphysics applications can be reduced, en route to their computational simulation, to a common algebraic coupling paradigm. Mathematical analysis of multiphysics coupling in this form is not always practical for realistic applications, but model problems representative of applications discussed herein can provide insight. A variety of software frameworks for multiphysics applications have been constructed and refined within disciplinary communities and executed on leading-edge computer systems. We examine several of these, expose some commonalities among them, and attempt to extrapolate best practices to future systems. From our study, we summarize challenges and forecast opportunities.

Keyes, David↗
DOE OSTI2012

Multiphysics Simulations: Challenges and Opportunities

We consider multiphysics applications from algorithmic and architectural perspectives, where “algorithmic” includes both mathematical analysis and computational complexity and “architectural” includes both software and hardware environments. Many diverse multiphysics applications can be reduced, en route to their computational simulation, to a common algebraic coupling paradigm. Mathematical analysis of multiphysics coupling in this form is not always practical for realistic applications, but model problems representative of applications discussed herein can provide insight. A variety of software frameworks for multiphysics applications have been constructed and refined within disciplinary communities and executed on leading-edge computer systems. We examine several of these, expose some commonalities among them, and attempt to extrapolate best practices to future systems. From our study, we summarize challenges and forecast opportunities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fast Responses on Pre-Industrial Climate from Present-Day Aerosols in A CMIP6 Multi-Model Study

In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

Pre-industrial climate↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Hydrological Cycle and Ocean Circulation of the Maritime Continent in the Mid-Pliocene: Results From PlioMIP2

The Maritime Continent (MC) forms the western boundary of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and relatively small changes in this region can impact the climate locally and remotely. In the mid-Piacenzian warm period of the Pliocene (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼ 400 ppm, and the subaerial Sunda and Sahul shelves made the land–sea distribution of the MC different to today. Topographic changes and elevated levels of CO2, combined with other forcings, are therefore expected to have driven a substantial climate signal in the MC region at this time. By using the results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2), we study the mean climatic features of the MC in the mPWP and changes in Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) with respect to the preindustrial. Results show a warmer and wetter mPWP climate of the MC and lower sea surface salinity in the surrounding ocean compared with the preindustrial. Furthermore, we quantify the volume transfer through the ITF; although the ITF may be expected to be hindered by the subaerial shelves, 10 out of 15 models show an increased volume transport compared with the preindustrial. In order to avoid undue influence from closely related models that are present in the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we introduce a new metric, the multi-cluster mean (MCM), which is based on cluster analysis of the individual models. We study the effect that the choice of MCM versus the more traditional analysis of multi-model mean (MMM) and individual models has on the discrepancy between model results and data. We find that models, which reproduce modern MC climate well, are not always good at simulating the mPWP climate anomaly of the MC. By comparing with individual models, the MMM and MCM reproduce the preindustrial sea surface temperature (SST) of the reanalysis better than most individual models and produce less discrepancy with reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) than most individual models in the MC. In addition, the clusters reveal spatial signals that are not captured by the MMM, so that the MCM provides us with a new way to explore the results from model ensembles that include similar models.

Hydrological cycle↗
NASA NTRS2024

Acquisition of and Access to Research Omics Data

Omics data are essential for understanding the myriad and complex effects of space environments on humans. To assure maximum benefit from these kinds of data, the NASA Human Research Program Data Management Plan stipulates that human omics data should be archived within and accessed through the NASA Life Sciences Portal (NLSP). The NLSP has the capability to acquire and provision access to omics (and other kinds of) research results for individual and ad-hoc groups of subjects at the direction of institutional review boards, or other authorizing bodies or individuals, per institutional, program and investigation-specific policies and procedures. However, because some single-subject omics data, like CT scans and other kinds of large, complex biomedical data, could be used to identify heretofore unknown risks to the subject’s health, or, in certain cases, be used to identify a subject, NASA Policy Directive 7170.1 describes various policies regarding the management of and access to “research genetic testing” data, which includes many kinds of omics data. For example, NPD 7170.1 prohibits access to human research genetic data by NASA personnel who make employment decisions for the subjects from whom the data were obtained. To meet the objective of acquiring research omics data for NLSP in compliance with the policies in NPD 7170.1 and other applicable NASA policies, we designed NOMADS (the NLSP Omics Multimodal Acquisition of Data System), a new component that supports the transfer of large research data files, including research genetic testing data, using one of several different transfer mechanisms. The choice of mechanism is made by the submitter of the data, with guiding information from the system, and is likely to often be determined in large part by the nature and source location of the data. For example, for small files where the source data files are not already stored in a cloud storage system, users are likely to prefer to transfer their data to the NLSP via a web browser. Conversely, for large sets of files already organized and stored in a cloud storage system, users may opt for NOMAD’s cloud-to-cloud transfer method. All omics datasets targeted for the NASA Life Sciences Data Archive must pass a variety of quality checks to ensure data integrity and adherence to the standards defined by the LSDA Data Submission Guidelines (DSG) (see https://nlsp.nasa.gov/explore/lsdahome/datasubmit). These include requirements that data are consistent with open standards established by the omics community. Non-compliant data will not be accepted however archivists are available to advise submitters on how to revise data submissions and re-submit until compliance is achieved. Following compliance with the LSDA DSG, omics data next undergo a variety of additional quality checks to ensure the data meet omics community standards. Domain specific Omics data quality control tools and techniques are continually evolving and linked to the advancements in omics assays utilized and thus, the tools and techniques utilized by the LSDA for data quality control and validation will need to be sustained accordingly. All human omics data will be access controlled according to the policies described above, and requiring IRB approval for any additional access grants once the data are acquired (including access for analysis using the NLSP workspace tools).

Omics↗
DOE OSTI2013

Multiphysics Simulations: Challenges and Opportunities

We consider multiphysics applications from algorithmic and architectural perspectives, where "algorithmic" includes both mathematical analysis and computational complexity, and "architectural" includes both software and hardware environments. Many diverse multiphysics applications can be reduced, en route to their computational simulation, to a common algebraic coupling paradigm. Mathematical analysis of multiphysics coupling in this form is not always practical for realistic applications, but model problems representative of applications discussed herein can provide insight. A variety of software frameworks for multiphysics applications have been constructed and refined within disciplinary communities and executed on leading-edge computer systems. We examine several of these, expose some commonalities among them, and attempt to extrapolate best practices to future systems. From our study, we summarize challenges and forecast opportunities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗