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NASA NTRS2020

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (MXMCPy)

Multi Model Monte Carlo with Python (\mxmc {}) is a software package developed as a general capability for computing the statistics of outputs from an expensive, high-fidelity model by leveraging faster, low-fidelity models for speedup. Motivated by uncertainty propagation problems where classical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is computationally intractable, various multi-model MC approaches have recently emerged that yield unbiased estimators with significantly reduced variance relative to MC for the same cost. These existing methods include multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC), multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC), and approximate control variates (ACV). Given a fixed computational budget and a collection of models with varying cost/accuracy, each method seeks a sample allocation strategy across the models that results in an estimator with optimal variance reduction. \mxmc {} is a versatile tool that enables convenient access to many existing multi-model MC approaches within one modular and extensible package. With \mxmc {}, users can easily compare existing methods to determine the best choice for their particular problem, while developers have a basis for implementing and sharing new variance reduction approaches. This report introduces the \mxmc {} software, providing a summary of the problem-solving workflow for users as well as a brief overview of the code layout for developers.

Geoffrey F Bomarito↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation amongst the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning

Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation among the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning Framework Based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This paper proposes a risk-aware framework for Safe Multi-Agent Planning (SafeMAP) that unifies disparate models for multi-agent systems in a Markovian process that allows for simultaneous system health monitoring, decision making under uncertainty, and multi-agent system collaboration. As operations beyond low earth orbit mature, there is an increased need for autonomous cyber-physical systems with onboard decision making capabilities. Multi-agent cyber-physical systems in particular offer the potential of increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission capabilities for future applications such as multi-rover terrain operations, distributed satellite operations, and management of smart lunar habitats. SafeMAP utilizes physics-based models of each agent and the relevant components, probability models of the environment and component operational states, and reward models for mission-specific objectives such as scientific task completion or resource consumption. The output of SafeMAP is a set of mission plans that satisfy the mission objective under specified risk/reward constraints. A readable interpretation of each of these generated mission plans is provided as an additional output. SafeMAP has been demonstrated on a simulated case study involving a four-rover system performing surface mapping operations and science tasks. Results of this paper demonstrate SafeMAP’s ability to generate explainable mission plans that satisfy the mission objective while minimizing risk under nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Mohammad Hejase↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning framework based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This paper proposes a risk-aware framework for Safe Multi-Agent Planning (SafeMAP) that unifies disparate models for multi-agent systems in a Markovian process that allows for simultaneous system health monitoring, decision making under uncertainty, and multi-agent system collaboration. As operations beyond low earth orbit mature, there is an increased need for autonomous cyber-physical systems with onboard decision making capabilities. Multi-agent cyber-physical systems in particular offer the potential of increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission capabilities for future applications such as multi-rover terrain operations, distributed satellite operations, and management of smart lunar habitats. SafeMAP utilizes physics-based models of each agent and the relevant components, probability models of the environment and component operational states, and reward models for mission-specific objectives such as scientific task completion or resource consumption. The output of SafeMAP is a set of mission plans that satisfy the mission objective under specified risk/reward constraints. A readable interpretation of each of these generated mission plans is provided as an additional output. SafeMAP has been demonstrated on a simulated case study involving a four-rover system performing surface mapping operations and science tasks. Results of this paper demonstrate SafeMAP’s ability to generate explainable mission plans that satisfy the mission objective while minimizing risk under nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Mohammad Hejase↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MULTI-OMICS ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CHRONIC LOW-DOSE RADIATION AND HINDLIMB SUSPENSION ON MURINE BRAIN AND RETINA

The space environment includes hazards like radiation and microgravity which can adversely affect biological systems. We assessed multi-omics multi-tissue NASA GeneLab datasets where 6-month-old female mice were gamma irradiated (IR) and/or hindlimb unloaded (HLU) for 21 days. Whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-Seq) and reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) of brain and retina samples collected at 4 months post-exposure was performed to better characterize the retinal and neurological responses to spaceflight. We compared epigenomic and transcriptomic profiles within each exposure group for both tissue types to identify correlation (Pearson’s correlation test; p-value < 0.05) between gene expression and DNA methylation levels that may be related to transcriptional regulation. We then obtained genes with methylation-expression correlation that also showed differences in mean expression or dispersion between exposed and control groups (adjusted p-value < 0.25; relaxed to denote ‘hypothesis’) in the brain (37 genes in HLU, 4 in IR, and 156 in HLU+IR) or retina (92 genes in HLU, 1 in IR, and 55 in HLU+IR). Enriched Gene Ontology (GO) terms for these genes are listed in Table 1 for HLU and HLU+IR for both tissue types. No enriched terms and only a few genes were detected with IR-only exposure in the brain (Chmp1a, Limd1, Rab40b, Ubc) and retina (retinoblastoma binding protein Rbbp7). Cellular components related to synapse were enriched in both tissue types. Previous analysis of differentially expressed genes in the retina after 1 month of HLU+IR showed enrichment in the somatodendritic compartment of the neuron, which was also observed in the brain 4 months post-exposure. Interestingly, genes related to ubiquitination showed correlation between methylation and expression and were differentially expressed or dispersed in different exposure groups indicating that this pathway may play an important role in multi-stressor response (Figure 1). The current multi-omics and multi-tissue analysis interrogates the epigenomic and transcriptomic impacts of radiation and hindlimb unloading, in isolation and in combination, on the retina and the brain. The results provide insight into the adaptive response to individual spaceflight hazard analogs and their interplay, as well as hypotheses to be further tested for understanding spaceflight-induced neurological and vision effects.

Prachi Kothiyal↗
NASA NTRS2016

Managing a Safe and Successful Multi-User Spaceport

Encouraged by the creation of the Office of Commercial Space Transportation within the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 1984 and the Commercial Space Act of 1998, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) now relies on an extensive network of support from commercial companies and organizations. At NASA's Kennedy Space Center (KSC), this collaboration opens competitive opportunities for launch providers, including repurposing underutilized Shuttle Program resources, constructing new facilities, and utilizing center services and laboratories. The resulting multi-user spaceport fosters diverse activity, though it engenders risk from hazards associated with various spaceflight processing activities. The KSC Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate, in coordination with the center's Spaceport Integration and Center Planning & Development organizations, has developed a novel approach to protect NASA's workforce, critical assets, and the public from hazardous, space-related activity associated with KSC's multi-user spaceport. For NASA KSC S&MA, the transformation to a multi-user spaceport required implementing methods to foster safe and successful commercial activity while resolving challenges involving: Retirement of the Space Shuttle program; Co-location of multiple NASA programs; Relationships between the NASA programs; Complex relationships between NASA programs and commercial partner operations in exclusive-use facilities; Complex relationships between NASA programs and commercial partner operations in shared-use facilities. NASA KSC S&MA challenges were met with long-term planning and solutions involving cooperation with the Spaceport Integration and Services Directorate. This directorate is responsible for managing active commercial partnerships with customer advocacy and services management, providing a dedicated and consistent level of support to a wide array of commercial operations. This paper explores these solutions, their relevance to the current commercial space industry, and the challenges that continue to drive improvement with a focus on areas of safety management and risk assessment that have been crucial in KSC's evolution into a multi-user spaceport. These solutions may be useful to government entities and private companies looking to partner with the commercial space industry.

Range↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Reduction With Multi-Model Monte Carlo for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Additively Manufactured Metals

In this work, multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed to reduce uncertainty in quantities of interest (QoIs) extracted from crystal plasticity simulations of additively manufactured (AM) metals. A significant concern in AM parts is uncertainty in mechanical properties caused in part by complex microstructures that arise from the AM process. Quantifying uncertainty in microstructure-sensitive behavior using experiments alone is costly, especially when mechanical allowables must be established. Quantitative relationships among microstructure, micromechanical metrics like slip accumulation, crack initiation, and failure are also difficult to capture with limited experiments. Crystal plasticity material models instead enable computational prediction of micromechanical stress and strain fields given a discretized microstructure. However, high-fidelity finely discretized crystal plasticity simulations are computationally expensive, while lower-fidelity models are less accurate and generally biased, making uncertainty quantification and reduction computationally difficult as well. Multi-model Monte Carlo methods leverage correlations between high- and low-fidelity models to produce unbiased estimators for QoIs with reduced uncertainty relative to standard Monte Carlo. Crystal plasticity QoIs considered in this work include yield strength and the mean and extreme values of micromechanical fields that are relevant to crack initiation. Multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed for each individual QoI and several groups of QoIs. The results of this work establish relationships among model correlations, sample allocation, and uncertainty reduction for different combinations of QoIs and demonstrate a trend of less uncertainty reduction as QoIs become more sensitive to local microstructure. Limitations from using pilot samples to estimate model covariances and train low-fidelity models are also addressed. The uncertainty reduction achieved by multi-model Monte Carlo is an important step toward using computational mechanics models to predict microstructure-sensitive crack initiation and failure in AM parts.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRS1981

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar hard X-ray bursts

The role of multi-spacecraft observations in solar flare research is examined from the point of view of solar hard X-ray bursts and their implications with respect to models of the impulsive phase. Multi-spacecraft measurements provide a stereoscopic view of the flare region, and hence represent the only direct method of measuring directivity of X-rays. In absence of hard X-ray imaging instruments with high spatial and temporal resolution, multi-spacecraft measurements provide the only means of determining the radial (vertical) structure of the hard X-ray source. This potential of the multi-spacecraft observations is illustrated with an analysis of the presently available observations of solar hard X-ray bursts made simultaneously by two or more of the following spacecraft: International Sun Earth Explorer-3, Pioneer Venus Orbiter, Helios-B and High Energy Astrophysical Observatory-A.

Kane, S. R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Discovery of multi-ring basins - Gestalt perception in planetary science

Early selenographers resolved individual structural components of multi-ring basin systems but missed the underlying large-scale multi-ring basin patterns. The recognition of multi-ring basins as a general class of planetary features can be divided into five steps. Gilbert (1893) took a first step in recognizing radial 'sculpture' around the Imbrium basin system. Several writers through the 1940's rediscovered the radial sculpture and extended this concept by describing concentric rings around several circular maria. Some reminiscences are given about the fourth step - discovery of the Orientale basin and other basin systems by rectified lunar photography at the University of Arizona in 1961-62. Multi-ring basins remained a lunar phenomenon until the fifth step - discovery of similar systems of features on other planets, such as Mars (1972), Mercury (1974), and possibly Callisto and Ganymede (1979). This sequence is an example of gestalt recognition whose implications for scientific research are discussed.

Hartmann, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Coordination in a hierarchical multi-actuator controller

A hierarchical multi-actuator controller is represented as a multi-resolutional information (knowledge) system utilizing a number of intelligent modules with decision making capabilities. The laws of multi-resolutional information (knowledge) organization and processing are presumed to be satisfied including the rules of dealing with redundant knowledge. A general case is considered in which a process to be controlled by a multiplicity of actuators is a distributed one and the condition of distribution can be formulated analytically. Operation of a lumped multi-actuator process is a particular case which has a broad practical application.

Meystel, Alex↗
NASA NTRS1989

Spectral multi-domain for large-scale fluid dynamic simulations

A number of successful applications of a spectral collocation method extended by a multi-domain patching technique are shown. The multi-domain technique can be used to improve resolution for problems with widely disparate scales, and to reduce the ill-conditioning of the spectral operators for problems in which a large number of points are required for distributed resolution. A new nonreflecting outflow boundary treatment for unsteady transition-to-turbulence simulations is also presented, which relies on the multi-domain technique. The role of multi-domain in improving the efficiency of such calculations is discussed.

Streett, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Coupled multi-disciplinary simulation of composite engine structures in propulsion environment

A computational simulation procedure is described for the coupled response of multi-layered multi-material composite engine structural components which are subjected to simultaneous multi-disciplinary thermal, structural, vibration, and acoustic loadings including the effect of hostile environments. The simulation is based on a three dimensional finite element analysis technique in conjunction with structural mechanics codes and with acoustic analysis methods. The composite material behavior is assessed at the various composite scales, i.e., the laminate/ply/constituents (fiber/matrix), via a nonlinear material characterization model. Sample cases exhibiting nonlinear geometrical, material, loading, and environmental behavior of aircraft engine fan blades, are presented. Results for deformed shape, vibration frequency, mode shapes, and acoustic noise emitted from the fan blade, are discussed for their coupled effect in hot and humid environments. Results such as acoustic noise for coupled composite-mechanics/heat transfer/structural/vibration/acoustic analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of coupled multi-disciplinary computational simulation and the various advantages of composite materials compared to metals.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Coupled multi-disciplinary simulation of composite engine structures in propulsion environment

A computational simulation procedure is described for the coupled response of multi-layered multi-material composite engine structural components which are subjected to simultaneous multi-disciplinary thermal, structural, vibration, and acoustic loadings including the effect of hostile environments. The simulation is based on a three dimensional finite element analysis technique in conjunction with structural mechanics codes and with acoustic analysis methods. The composite material behavior is assessed at the various composite scales, i.e., the laminate/ply/constituents (fiber/matrix), via nonlinear material characterization model. Sample cases exhibiting nonlinear geometrical, material, loading, and environmental behavior of aircraft engine fan blades, are presented. Results for deformed shape, vibration frequency mode shapes, and acoustic noise emitted from the fan blade, are discussed for their coupled effect in hot and humid environments. Results such as acoustic noise for coupled composite-mechanics/heat transfer/structural/vibration/acoustic analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of coupled multi-disciplinary computational simulation the various advantages of composite materials compared to metals.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Full Multi-Grid Method for the Solution of the Cell Vertex Finite Volume Cauchy-Riemann Equations

The system of inhomogeneous Cauchy-Riemann equations defined on a square domain and subject to Dirichlet boundary conditions is considered. This problem is discretised by using the cell vertex finite volume method on quadrilateral meshes. The resulting algebraic problem is overdetermined and the solution is defined in a least squares sense. By this approach a consistent algebraic problem is obtained which differs from the original one by O(h(exp 2)) perturbations of the right-hand side. A suitable cell-based convergent smoothing iteration is presented which is naturally linked to the least squares formulation. Hence, a standard multi-grid algorithm is reported which combines the given smoother and cell-based transfer operators. Some remarkable reduction properties of these operators are shown. A full multi-grid method is discussed which solves the discrete problem to the level of truncation error by employing one multi-grid cycle at each current level of discretisation. Experiments and applications of the full multi-grid scheme are presented.

Borzi, A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

A Loader for Executing Multi-Binary Applications on the Thinking Machines CM-5: It's Not Just for SPMD Anymore

The Thinking Machines CM-5 platform was designed to run single program, multiple data (SPMD) applications, i.e., to run a single binary across all nodes of a partition, with each node possibly operating on different data. Certain classes of applications, such as multi-disciplinary computational fluid dynamics codes, are facilitated by the ability to have subsets of the partition nodes running different binaries. In order to extend the CM-5 system software to permit such applications, a multi-program loader was developed. This system is based on the dld loader which was originally developed for workstations. This paper provides a high level description of dld, and describes how it was ported to the CM-5 to provide support for multi-binary applications. Finally, it elaborates how the loader has been used to implement the CM-5 version of MPIRUN, a portable facility for running multi-disciplinary/multi-zonal MPI (Message-Passing Interface Standard) codes.

Becker, Jeffrey C.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Evaluation of Portable Multi-Gas Analyzers for use by Safety Personnel

During confined space entry operations as well as Shuttle-safing operations, United Space Alliance (USA)/National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) safety personnel use a variety of portable instrumentation to monitor for hazardous levels of compounds such as nitrogen dioxide (N%), monomethylhydrazine (NMM), FREON 21, ammonia (NH3), oxygen (O2), and combustibles (as hydrogen (H2)). Except for O2 and H2, each compound is monitored using a single analyzer. In many cases these analyzers are 5 to 10 years old and require frequent maintenance. In addition, they are cumbersome to carry and tend to make the job of personnel monitoring physically taxing. As part of an effort to upgrade the sensor technology background information was requested from a total of 27 manufacturers of portable multi-gas instruments. A set of criteria was established to determine which vendors would be selected for laboratory evaluation. These criteria were based on requests made by USA/NASA Safety personnel in order to meet requirements within their respective areas for confined-space and Shuttle-safing operations. Each of the 27 manufacturers of multi-gas analyzers was sent a copy of the criteria and asked to fill in the appropriate information pertaining to their instrumentation. Based on the results of the sensor criteria worksheets, a total of 9 vendors out of 27 surveyed manufacturers were chosen for evaluation. Each vendor included in the final evaluation process was requested to configure each of two analyzers with NO2, NH3, O2, and combustible sensors. A set of lab tests was designed in order to determine which of the multi-gas instruments under evaluation was best suited for use in both shuttle and confined space operations. These tests included linearity/repeatability, zero/span drift response/recovery, humidity, interference, and maintenance. At the conclusion of lab testing three vendors were selected for additional field testing. Based on the results of both the lab and field evaluations a single vendor was recommended for use by NASA/IJSA Safety personnel. Vendor selection criteria, as well as the results from both laboratory and field testing of the multi-gas analyzers, are presented as part of this paper.

Lueck, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mars Comm/Nav MicroSat Network Using the Multi-Mission Bus Launched Piggyback by Ariane 5

Recently, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory completed a Mars Exploration Program Architecture Definition Study with strong international participation. The recommendations of this study include establishment of a low cost in-situ communications and navigation satellite network to provide enabling and enhancing support for the international exploration of Mars. This would be the first step toward establishing a "virtual presence throughout the solar system" as called for in NASA's Strategic Plan. Response to the proposed comm/nav satellite network has been very favorably received, as reflected by the inclusion of a line item in NASA's budget submittal to Congress, which provides funding for implementation of the network with first launch in the 2003 opportunity. Funding has already been provided for a phase A study being conducted this year. This paper presents the planned implementation of the comm/nav network, which will utilize microsats based on a multi-mission spacecraft bus being designed for launch by the Ariane 5 as a secondary payload. A companion paper at this conference, entitled "The Multi-Purpose Mars Micro-Mission System Design Utilizing Ariane 5 Piggyback Launch", describes the multimission bus design. This paper addresses the application of the multi-mission bus to the comm/nav microsat mission. Following an introduction, which provides the background that has led to the proposed comm/nav network, the paper discusses the projected user needs with emphasis on the various possible robotic missions (landers, rovers, ascent vehicles, balloons, aircraft, etc.) progressing toward eventual piloted missions. Next, the paper describes the concept for an evolving network of comm/nav microsats and the expected capability to satisfy the user needs. Results of communications and navigation performance analysis are summarized for attractive satellite constellation configurations. The important comm/nav microsat functional requirements on the multi-mission spacecraft bus are described with discussion of the mission-system tradeoffs for the driving requirements. The functional design of the in-situ communications / navigation package, which constitutes the payload of the microsat, is also described. The paper also includes discussion of technologies which are of specific importance to the implementation of the comm/nav microsat network.

Hastrup, R. C.↗