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At least 181 records · Page 10

Observed Land Surface Influence on Atmospheric Heat and Moisture Profiles During Interstorms

Land-atmospheric (L-A) feedbacks have historically been studied using models whose structure and parameterizations influence outcomes and insights. The representation of L-A feedbacks based on observations alone remains an ongoing challenge for understanding boundary layer development and precipitation. To address this gap, we use ground-based passive remote sensing and in-situ observations to present an analysis of the atmosphere during 103 interstorm soil moisture drydown events spanning nine warm seasons (2016–2024) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains region. By separating events based on local L-A coupling signals and characterizing the profiles of atmospheric heat and moisture to surface energy flux behavior, we investigate the physical mechanisms linking land surface processes to boundary layer development. We find that during interstorm drydowns, the atmospheric column follows a consistent pattern: moisture increases within the boundary layer, peaks near its top, and declines rapidly above, while warming occurs through the depth. Drydowns that shift toward evaporation produce stronger and deeper thermodynamic responses than cases dominated by sensible heating, which are weaker and shallower. Additionally, moisture is accumulated faster within the boundary layer during shorter drydowns, with longer drydowns representing slower, moisture-limited growth. Drydowns with wetter initial soil moisture will sustain stronger moistening within and above the boundary layer, accelerating buoyancy growth and convective potential toward the next storm. These results provide observational evidence linking surface flux evolution to boundary layer thermodynamics and offer a process-level benchmark for evaluating coupled L-A representations in models and demonstrating the influence of soil moisture on short-term weather forecasting skill.

Zhang, M. S. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M↗

Large-scale simulation-based parametric analysis of an optimal precooling strategy for demand flexibility in a commercial office building

Achieving success with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) is closely tied to the utilization of flexible loads. A valuable strategy involves the implementation of precooling techniques before high-demand events, such as peak hours, by adjusting zone air temperature setpoints. This leads to a reduction in thermal loads and peak electricity demand during these times, as the building’s thermal mass stores and subsequently releases thermal energy. However, the effectiveness of the pre-cooling optimization is highly contingent on specific conditions such as building thermal properties, weather conditions, utility rate structure, HVAC equipment sizing, etc. Therefore, investigating the impacts of these condition-specific factors is crucial, especially when considering precooling strategies that utilize thermal mass in commercial buildings. In this paper, we first devised a novel heuristic control approach that incorporates parameterized optimal precooling thermostat schedules to enhance demand flexibility in a commercial office building. Subsequently, we conducted a thorough performance evaluation of this control strategy. Here, the optimal thermostat schedule was parameterized using three optimization variables: the precooling start time, the precooling end time, and the precooling temperature setpoint. Utilizing the DOE medium-sized office building as the virtual testbed, we showed that the parameterized schedule effectively approximates model predictive control and requires drastically reduced computational overhead. In addition, we investigated the impact of different influencing factors on the optimal precooling strategy. These factors include building thermal mass, outdoor air conditions, and energy price profiles. Using high-performance computing, we simulated a total of 225 scenarios, consisting of three levels of thermal mass, five typical outdoor air temperature profiles, and fifteen time-of-use price plans. The results demonstrate that optimal thermostat scheduling could save substantial energy cost in medium-sized office buildings with heavy thermal mass but with some energy penalty. Although the potential for cost savings is lower in buildings with low and medium thermal mass, the energy penalty remains consistent in all three thermal mass scenarios. The study also highlights the need to account for zone diversity and recognize that a one-size-fits-all-zone setpoint schedule may not be suitable for all zones and can lead to unnecessary energy wastage. Furthermore, the results highlight that while outdoor air conditions play a role in cost and energy performance, the cooling load exerts a more immediate and substantial influence on cost savings in precooling strategies. Although cost savings are comparable under certain conditions with the same cooling load, observed deviations in energy penalty indicate potential disparities in the efficiency of the HVAC system during the load-shifting process. In addition, the duration of peak pricing and the ratio between peak and off-peak times exhibit clear correlations with cost savings and energy consumption, aligning with intuitive expectations. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing precooling strategies in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Improving energy efficiency while reducing anthropogenic heat from buildings: how retrofits influence the building stock and urban microclimate in Los Angeles

Anthropogenic heat (AH) from buildings contributes to urban overheating, especially during heat waves, yet building retrofit studies usually evaluate energy savings without assessing impacts on AH. This study quantifies how common building retrofit measures affect both building energy use and AH emissions across the City of Los Angeles. Using a bottom-up urban building energy modeling framework coupled with high-resolution local weather from the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Building Effect Parameterization (WRF-BEP), we evaluate eleven retrofit measures and two multi-measure retrofit packages. HVAC and LED lighting retrofits provide the largest city-wide annual site energy savings, while roof coating is most effective for reducing AH. A package optimized for energy savings reduces summer site energy use by about 32% (2.3 TWh), while a package incorporating AH-focused measures reduces the total AH by over 50% (137 PJ) with minimal difference in energy savings. The AH-aware package produces substantially greater urban cooling, reducing mean near-surface air temperature by up to 0.62 ℃ and peak temperature by up to 3.79 ℃. These results show that retrofit strategies selected only for energy savings may overlook major opportunities for urban heat mitigation. The study provides a framework for integrating AH into building retrofit planning and urban heat resilience policy.

Anthropogenic heat↗

Adaptation of virtual synchronous generators to dynamic conditions in power grids

Virtual synchronous generators (VSGs) are widely adopted as grid-forming controls for inverter-based resources. However, when grid conditions vary significantly as characterized by changes in short-circuit ratio (SCR) and the reactance-to-resistance (X/R) ratio, fixed-gain designs and the commonly used P–Q decoupling assumption can become inaccurate. Such conditions can degrade transient power performance, leading to oscillations, prolonged settling, and overshoot, particularly in stiff-grid operating points. This paper quantifies how grid strength and impedance-dependent coupling affect the active–reactive power dynamics of a conventional VSG over a broad range of SCR and X/R values. An adaptive VSG tuning framework is then developed by combining (i) a coupling-explicit, impedance-parameterized state-space model to enable systematic controller synthesis, (ii) a full-state-feedback law designed via pole placement to meet prescribed damping and settling-time specifications, and (iii) a physics-informed neural network (PINN)–based online grid-impedance estimator that updates controller gains in real time as grid conditions vary. Offline simulations in MATLAB/Simulink and real-time validation on an OPAL-RT platform show that the proposed method preserves consistent damping and settling behavior with reduced overshoot across wide SCR and X/R ranges, compared with fixed-gain VSG baselines.

Adaptive control↗

Ab-initio informed cluster dynamics simulation of self- and Xe diffusivity in uranium mononitride under irradiation

Uranium mononitride (UN) is one of the ceramic nuclear fuel alternatives to oxide fuels considered for light water reactor and advanced reactor designs, as it presents significant advantages such as high uranium density (better economics) and high thermal conductivity and melting point (increased safety). Self- and fission gas diffusivities need to be better understood, given that they influence key fuel performance phenomena like swelling and fission gas release. Recently, radiation enhanced diffusivity was investigated in UN by means of cluster dynamics simulations relying on empirical potential-based parameterizations, the reliability of which highly depends on the interatomic potential accuracy. Here, in this work, we refine this approach by determining, using ab-initio calculations, the properties of defect clusters containing vacancies, self-interstitials and Xe impurities. We also consider larger clusters than previous studies. The obtained dataset (formation enthalpies, entropies, and migration barriers) is used to parameterize a cluster dynamics model of mobile clusters, and to calculate the defect cluster concentrations under irradiation. This gives us access to the radiation enhanced self- and fission gas diffusivities. Although the resulting diffusivities are close to the values reported in the literature, we find important qualitative differences in the diffusion mechanisms. Capturing the correct mechanisms is crucial to properly describe the chemistry and fission rate dependence of the model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Future Changes in Midwest Extreme Precipitation Depend on Storm Type

Midwestern U.S. extreme precipitation is associated with multiple storm types including mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and/or training thunderstorms, tropical cyclone (TC) remnants, and winter storms. Anthropogenic warming is expected to increase climatological precipitation globally, however, there may be little correspondence with regional storm-based changes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains in precipitation-temperature scaling due to use of convective parameterization in most global models. In this study, we investigated historically impactful extreme precipitation events from multiple types of Midwest storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution. We simulated five-member ensembles of historical hindcasts and experiments representing the storms in the future using the pseudo-global warming method. We found that future precipitation changes depend on storm type, with increases near Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) for winter storms, no consensus for MCSs and/or training thunderstorms, and sub-CC increases for TC remnants. This research highlights the importance of considering storm type in future extreme precipitation projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global quantification of the dispersion effect with POLDER satellite data

Increased aerosols can modify the shape of the cloud Particle Size Distribution (PSD), thereby influencing the radiative properties of clouds, known as the Dispersion Effect (DE). However, a global, observation-based quantification of its impact on Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) is lacking, leading to DE being typically ignored in satellite-based estimates of ACI forcing. Here we propose a physics-based method that combines polarimetric satellite data on cloud PSD to achieve global observational quantification of DE’s impact on ACI in liquid-phase stratiform clouds. Globally, DE offsets ACI changes induced by droplet number concentration variation and liquid water path adjustment by 7% and −1.4%, respectively. Furthermore, a parameterization based on the global dataset of PSD shape parameters is developed to improve DE estimation in large-scale models. Both the quantification and parameterization enhance our understanding of DE and facilitate the inclusion of this non-negligible impact of DE on ACI in estimating aerosol climate forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental signature of layer skyrmions and implications for band topology in twisted WSe 2 bilayers

Twisted homobilayers of transition-metal dichalcogenides have been established as an ideal platform for studying strong correlation phenomena, as exemplified by the recent discovery of fractional Chern insulator states in twisted MoTe 2 , as well as Chern insulators and unconventional superconductivity in twisted WSe 2 . In these systems, a non-trivial topology in the strongly layer-hybridized regime can arise from a spatial patterning of interlayer tunnelling amplitudes and layer-dependent potentials that yields a lattice of layer skyrmions. Here, in this work, we report experimental signatures of skyrmion textures in the layer degree of freedom of rhombohedral-stacked twisted WSe 2 homobilayers. Using scanning tunnelling spectroscopy that separately resolves the Γ-valley and K-valley moiré electronic states, we reveal opposite layer polarizations of the K valley at two different lattice sites with opposite stacking order within the moiré unit cell. These findings are consistent with the theoretically predicted layer-skyrmion texture. We also use our experimental results to parameterize a common continuum model of moiré bands in twisted bilayers, further establishing a direct correlation between the shape of the local density of states in real space and the topology of the topmost moiré band.

electronic properties and materials↗

Complex carbonate phases drive geologic CO2 mineralization

Abstract Geologic carbon sequestration in mafic and ultramafic reservoirs is a scalable strategy for carbon dioxide removal, offering permanent storage via mineralization as stable carbonates. However, there is limited information on the structure and composition of key mineralization endpoints during sequestration. Here, we unravel the atomic structure, composition, and nanoscale morphology of carbonates recovered from a field-scale demonstration of CO 2 mineralization in basalt. Using transmission electron microscopy, we mapped mineralogical variations from the initial to later stages of subsurface carbonate growth and identified a previously unknown cation-ordered ankerite phase that exerts a primary control over carbonation processes. This study has provided a new understanding of subsurface carbonation pathways which will impact the parameterization of predictive geochemical models for future sequestration efforts in basalt formations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Constraints on the structure growth from cluster number counts

Recent advancements in methods used in wide-area surveys have demonstrated the reliability of the number density of galaxy clusters as a viable tool for precision cosmology. Beyond testing the current cosmological paradigm, cluster number counts can also be used to investigate the discrepancies currently affecting cosmological measurements. In particular, cosmological studies based on cosmic shear and other large-scale structure probes routinely find a value for the amplitude of the fluctuations in the universe S​ 8 = σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 smaller than the one inferred from the primary cosmic microwave background. In this work, we investigate this tension by measuring structure evolution across cosmic time as probed by the number counts of massive halos with the first SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey cluster catalog in the western Galactic hemisphere, complemented with the overlapping Dark Energy Survey Year-3, Kilo-Degree Survey, and Hyper Suprime-Cam data for weak lensing mass calibration, by implementing two different parameterizations and a model-agnostic method. In the first model, we measured the cosmic linear growth index as γ = 1.19 ± 0.21, which is in tension with the standard value of γ = 0.55 but in good statistical agreement with other large-scale structure probes. The second model is a phenomenological scenario in which we rescale the linear matter power spectrum at low redshift to investigate a potential reduction of structure formation, and it provided similar results. Finally, in a third strategy, we considered a standard ΛCDM cosmology, but we separated the cluster catalog into five redshift bins, measuring the cosmological parameters in each and inferring the evolution of the structure formation, finding hints of a reduction. Interestingly, the S ​8 value inferred from the number counts of the cluster eRASS1 when we add a degree of freedom to the matter power spectrum recovers the value inferred by cosmic shear studies. The observed reduction in the growth rate or systematic uncertainties associated with various measurements may account for the discrepancy in the S 8 ​ values suggested between cosmic shear probes and eROSITA cluster number counts and Planck CMB measurements.

cosmological parameters↗

Optimal reconstruction of baryon acoustic oscillations for DESI 2024

Baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) provide a robust standard ruler to measure the expansion history of the Universe through galaxy clustering. Density-field reconstruction is now a widely adopted procedure for increasing the precision and accuracy of the BAO detection. With the goal of finding the optimal reconstruction settings to be used in the DESI 2024 galaxy BAO analysis, we assess the sensitivity of the post-reconstruction BAO constraints to different choices in our analysis configuration, performing tests on blinded data from the first year of DESI observations (DR1), as well as on mocks that mimic the expected clustering and selection properties of the DESI DR1 target samples. Overall, we find that BAO constraints remain robust against multiple aspects in the reconstruction process, including the choice of smoothing scale, treatment of redshift-space distortions, fiber assignment incompleteness, and parameterizations of the BAO model. We also present a series of tests that DESI followed in order to assess the maturity of the end-to-end galaxy BAO pipeline before the unblinding of the large-scale structure catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Diffusion power spectra as a window into dynamic materials architecture

Chemical recycling of commodity and specialty polymers presents a multifaceted challenge for industrial societies. On one hand, macromolecular architectures must be engineered to yield durable products that, on the other hand, rapidly deconstruct to recyclable monomers under pre-determined conditions. Polymer deconstruction is a chemical process that requires deep understanding of molecular reactivity in heterogeneous media, where porous material architectures evolve in both space and time. To build this understanding, we develop herein experimental and analytical methods describing sets of diffusive eigenmodes that exist within time-varying, non-Euclidean boundary conditions, a situation commonly encountered in the reactive deconstruction of polymers where chain fragments splay, alter their local dynamics, and evolve in their confinement of reacting media. Diffusion power spectra, discerned experimentally by NMR, yield polymer and solvent frequency-domain velocity autocorrelation functions that are analyzed in the context of physical models for chemical reactions parameterized with fractal mathematics. The results connect local motion in polymers to chemical reactivity during acidolysis of circular elastomers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Shoreline wave breaking strongly enhances the coastal sea spray aerosol population: Climate and air quality implications

Sea spray aerosol (SSA) emission is a major source of atmospheric aerosols, influencing global climate and coastal air quality. Much of our knowledge about SSA derives from coastal observations near shorelines, but whether and when these observations accurately represent open oceans remain unclear. Here, we show that strong nearshore SSA production during high-wave periods greatly enhances downwind cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and aerosol mass concentrations. Strong shoreline wave breaking is widespread globally, and swell waves, which are decoupled from local winds, play a dominant role in many coastal regions. Therefore, extrapolating results based on coastal measurements to open oceans may significantly overestimate SSA concentration and its contribution to CCN and, by extension, the impact of SSA on clouds and climate. Additionally, the strong enhancement of coastal aerosol population by shoreline wave breaking and its environmental impact on coastal communities cannot be captured by current regional models, which do not parameterize nearshore SSA generation using wave energy or completely neglect it.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

Carbon↗

Warm-phase microphysical evolution in large-eddy simulations of tropical cumulus congestus: evaluating drop size distribution evolution using polarimetry retrievals, in situ measurements, and a thermal-based framework

Owing to uncertainties in convective microphysics processes, improving parameterizations in Earth system models (ESMs) can benefit from observationally constrained cases suitable for scaling between cloud-resolving models and ESMs. We propose a benchmark large-eddy simulation (LES) cumulus congestus case study from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP 2 Ex) for evaluating and improving ESMs in single-column model (SCM) mode. We seek observational constraints using novel polarimetric retrievals and in situ cloud microphysics measurements. Simulations using bulk and bin microphysics initialized with observed aerosol profiles are compared to cloud-top retrievals of cloud droplet effective radius (R eff ), effective variance (ν eff ), and number concentration (N d ) from the airborne Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). Both schemes reproduce characteristics of cloud-top N d and R eff that increase and decrease with altitude, respectively. Cloud-top N d is low-biased relative to RSP retrievals in both schemes, potentially due to limitations in both simulations and retrieval assumptions. Cloud-top R eff is low-biased in the bulk scheme but reasonably reproduced by the bin scheme. Profiles of N d and R eff are sensitive to the collision–coalescence process and the vertical variation in aerosol size distribution. Comparison of simulated and in situ droplet size distributions (DSDs) shows that, to first order, integrated moments are always sensitive to sizes < ~ 30 µm and can also be sensitive to larger sizes if the DSDs are sufficiently broad, with implications for the assumed maximum observed size retrieved by the RSP. The bin scheme captures the observed extended tail of the DSD, while the bulk scheme is unable to due to parametric constraints. Differences in expected relationships between in situ measurements of cloud cores and cloud-top retrievals by RSP demonstrate difficulty in constraining well the case presented herein. Finally, a thermal-tracking framework demonstrates that the dilution of N d throughout a thermal's lifetime is heavily determined by collision–coalescence and the height-varying aerosol distribution and that, in the absence of these, the impact of entrainment on diluting N d is largely offset by secondary activation. Implications for evaluating warm-phase convective microphysics schemes in ESMs and translating results for use on global, space-based polarimetry platforms are discussed.

Stanford, McKenna Wallace [Columbia Univ., New Yor↗

ARM SGP PBLH and MLH datasets from Raman lidar and Doppler lidar

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) plays a critical role in the atmosphere by transferring heat, moisture, and momentum. The warm PBL has a distinct diurnal cycle including the daytime convective mixing layer (ML) and nighttime residual layer developments. Thus, simultaneous determinations of PBL height (PBLH) and ML height (MLH) are necessary for studying PBL characterization and processes. Here, new approaches are developed to provide reliable PBLH and MLH estimates to characterize warm PBL evolution. The approaches use Raman lidar (RL) water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) and Doppler lidar (DL) vertical velocity measurements at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory, which was established by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility. Compared to widely used lidar aerosol measurements for PBLH, WVMR is a better tracer for PBL vertical mixing. For PBLH, the approach classifies PBL water vapor structures into a few general patterns, then uses a slope method and dynamic threshold method to determine PBLH. For MLH, wavelet analysis is used to reconstruct 2D variance from DL vertical wind velocity measurements according to the turbulence eddy size to minimize the impacts of gravity wave and eddy size on variance calculations; then, a dynamic threshold method is used to determine MLH. Remotely-sensed PBLHs and MLHs are compared with radiosonde measurements based on the Richardson number method. Good agreements between them confirm that the proposed new algorithms are reliable for PBLH and MLH characterization. The algorithms are applied to warm-season RL and ML measurements at the SGP site for five years to study warm-season PBL structure and processes. The weekly composited diurnal evolutions of PBLHs and MLHs in a warm climate were provided to illustrate diurnal and seasonal PBL evolutions. This reliable data set of PBLH and MLH values will be valuable for studying PBL processes, model evolution, and PBL parameterization improvements. The MLH dataset includes the MLH in values of km above ground level. The PBLH dataset includes the PBLH in values of km above ground level, along with a flag ("situation_PBLH") to determine the state of the PBL (1 = Cloudy Condition, 2 = Stable Layer, 3 = Multi-layer WVMR structure, 4 = Well-Mixed PBL, 5 = A de-coupled layer, 6 = Other).

mixing layer height↗

Simultaneous Optimization of Crystal Plasticity Hardening Parameters

Crystal plasticity models relate macroscopic deformation behavior to the evolution of slip systems strength, but their parameterization is often non-unique, with multiple parameter sets being able to describe the same macroscopic behavior. To address this issue, the present work adopts a Bayesian optimization framework for the parameterization of face-centered cubic plasticity models while simultaneously considering multiple experimental datasets from the literature. For single crystal Cu, parameter optimization was guided by the tensile stress–strain curves along several crystallographic orientations, with an adequate fit being found for five orientations at once. While additional parameters allowed for the consideration of more physical mechanisms, like different slip system interaction strengths or misorientations inherent to the experimental data, the extra dimensionality was found to limit the efficiency of the global minimization procedure. For polycrystalline Ni, multiple grain sizes were considered together in a representative polycrystalline model, with the optimization able to reconcile the model with the data for three grain sizes at once. As meaningful interpretation of parameters relies on the uniqueness of their values, incorporating multiple datasets into this discerning parameterization procedure enables more robust prediction and application of crystal plasticity models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Machine Learning Accelerated First-Principles Study of the Hydrodeoxygenation of Propanoic Acid

The complex reaction network of catalytic biomass conversions often involves hundreds of surface intermediates and thousands of reaction steps, greatly hindering the rational design of metal catalysts for these conversions. Here, we present a framework of machine learning (ML)-accelerated first-principles studies for the hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of propanoic acid over transition metal surfaces. The microkinetic model (MKM) is initially parametrized by ML-predicted energies and iteratively improved by identifying the rate-determining species and steps (RDS), computing their energies by density functional theory (DFT), and reparameterizing the MKM until all the RDS are computed by DFT. The Gaussian process (GP) model performs significantly better than the linear ridge regression model for predicting both the adsorption free energies and transition state free energies. Parameterized with energies from the GP model, only 5–20% of the full reaction network has to be computed by DFT for the MKM to possess DFT-level accuracy for the TOF and dominant reaction pathway. While the linear ridge regression model performs worse than the GP model, its performance is greatly improved when only transition states are predicted by the regression model and adsorption energies are computed by DFT. Overall, we find that a high accuracy in adsorption free energies is more important for a reliable MKM than a high accuracy in TS free energies. Lastly, based on the GP model with GOH and GCHCHCO as catalyst descriptors, we build two-dimensional volcano plots in activity and selectivity that can help design promising alloy catalysts for HDO reactions of organic acids.

adsorption↗