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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Neural message-passing for objective-based uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design

Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Importance learning estimator for the site-averaged turnover frequency of a disordered solid catalyst

For disordered catalysts such as atomically dispersed “single-atom” metals on amorphous silica, the active sites inherit different properties from their quenched-disordered local environments. The observed kinetics are site-averages, typically dominated by a small fraction of highly active sites. Standard sampling methods require expensive ab initio calculations at an intractable number of sites to converge on the siteaveraged kinetics. We present a new method that efficiently estimates the site-averaged turnover frequency (TOF). The new estimator uses the same importance learning algorithm [Vandervelden et al., React. Chem. Eng. 5, 77 (2020)] that we previously used to compute the siteaveraged activation energy. We demonstrate the method by computing the site-averaged TOF for a simple disordered lattice model of an amorphous catalyst. The results show that with the importance learning algorithm, the site-averaged TOF and activation energy can now be obtained concurrently with orders of magnitude reduction in required ab initio calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Efficient data-driven regression for reduced-order modeling of spatial pattern formation

We present an efficient data-driven regression approach for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of reaction-diffusion systems exhibiting pattern formation. The ROMs are learned non-intrusively from available training data of physically accurate numerical simulations. The method can be applied to general nonlinear systems through the use of polynomial model form, while not requiring knowledge of the underlying physical model, governing equations, or numerical solvers. The process of learning ROMs is posed as a low-cost least-squares problem in a reduced-order subspace identified via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Numerical experiments on classical pattern-forming systems–including the Schnakenberg and Mimura–Tsujikawa models–demonstrate that higher-order surrogate models significantly improve prediction accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. The proposed method provides a flexible, non-intrusive model reduction framework, well suited for the analysis of complex spatio-temporal pattern formation phenomena.

Data-driven modeling↗

DOE OSTI2023

PCAfold 2.0—Novel tools and algorithms for low-dimensional manifold assessment and optimization

We describe an update to our open-source Python package, PCAfold, designed to help researchers generate, analyze and improve low-dimensional data manifolds. In the current version, PCAfold 2.0, we introduce novel tools and algorithms for assessing and optimizing low-dimensional manifolds. This includes a method that generates a “map” of local feature sizes that can help pinpoint researchers to problematic regions on a manifold. We introduce a novel cost function that characterizes the quality of a manifold topology with a single number. We develop two algorithms for feature selection based on principal component analysis (PCA) that use the cost function as an objective function to minimize. We introduce a quantity of interest (QoI)-aware dimensionality reduction strategy where data projections are computed using an artificial neural network and are directly optimized towards representing various projection-independent and projection-dependent QoIs. We also introduce an implementation of partition of unity networks (POUnets) for efficient reconstruction of QoIs from low-dimensional manifolds based on combining neural network classification with localized polynomial regression. Our software can be broadly applicable in all domains of science and engineering that aim to reduce data dimensionality, as well as in the fundamental research on representation learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multilane Automated Driving With Optimal Control and Mixed-Integer Programming

Road vehicle lane changes often initiate traffic disturbances and can therefore impact road networks’ energy and time efficiency. Furthermore, unexpected changes in traffic conditions may also render lane changes counterproductive for the lane-changing vehicle. Vehicle-to-vehicle connectivity combined with anticipative control could address these challenges via improved lane change decisions by automated vehicles. In a move toward this objective, receding horizon control cast as a mixed-integer quadratic program is used to plan lane changing and acceleration in a coupled optimization. A long-term pacing module, based on Pontryagin’s minimum principle from optimal control theory, sets terminal and input references for receding horizon control to target a user’s expected travel time. To remove nonlinear vehicle dynamics from the receding horizon controller, lane change commands are passed to a pure pursuit steering module whose response is approximated by a second-order linear model. Here, comparison against a rule-based reactive algorithm in arterial and highway scenarios shows an 8.9%–13.7% reduction in energy consumption and a 5.2%–10.3% reduction in the travel time, along with navigational improvements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low-Cost Heliostat for High-Flux Small-Area Receivers (Final Technical Report)

This project analyzed a two-stage heliostat concept consisting of a tracking stage and a concentrating stage. The tracking stage uses mirrors mounted on a common drive that move to track the sun. The concentrating stage consists of stationary mirrors that each have a unique angle to direct rays towards a small-area, high-flux, point-focused receiver. By splitting the collection and concentrating process into two stages, multiple small, inexpensive mirrors can share a structure and be controlled by a single drive in the tracking stage. The project effort developed modeling techniques that were specifically relevant to this two-stage heliostat concept. Both field-level and unit-level models were developed. The field-level model does not explicitly consider unit-level losses which are predicted by the unit-level model and then integrated into the field-level model through a correlation referred to as an efficiency modifier. This approach is referred to as the two-model approach; the development and demonstration of this two-model approach for a multi-stage heliostat technology is a key outcome of this work. The field-level model is used to design a field that hits a specific design day power given a set of heliostat design parameters. An oversized field is simulated and then heliostat units are removed based on their annual energy production in order to generate the highest performing field. The field reduction procedure fits a smooth curve fit to annual energy production as a function of position in the field which has the effect of reducing the noise that is otherwise caused by the Monte Carlo ray tracing technique. This approach is referred to as the annual energy fit method and substantially reduces computational run time for a given field level modeling accuracy. The annual energy fit approach enables the selection of a properly sized, high-performing field using orders of magnitude fewer rays than would otherwise be possible and the development of this approach is a second key outcome of this work. These models are used within a genetic optimization algorithm in order to optimize the geometric parameters associated with a heliostat in order to achieve the lowest cost per unit of collected design day power. The cost modeling that underlies the optimization is a simple, scaling type analysis backed up by a much more detailed Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) analysis. Although the figure of merit used for optimization was not cost per mirror area, this metric is reasonable to use as a means of comparison. The optimally designed 500 kW design has a tracking mirror specific cost of $181.85/m 2 , which is significantly larger than the target value and also larger than the current state of the art. The cost of the torque-tube type linkages contributed substantially to the overall cost. Based on this observation, potentially attractive alternative design configuration utilizing a capstan type actuation system should be investigated. Finally, NREL compared the performance of the two-stage heliostat to the performance of a focused and different sized flat conventional heliostats and showed that, as expected, additional losses versus the convention heliostat caused by a worse cosine efficiency, two stages of reflection, and interstage interactions. The two-stage heliostat requires around 75% more reflective area than a flat 1x1 meter conventional heliostat (similar to a focused heliostat) and 40% more than a flat 2x2 meter conventional heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multilevel and multifidelity uncertainty quantification for cardiovascular hemodynamics

Standard approaches for uncertainty quantification in cardiovascular modeling pose challenges due to the large number of uncertain inputs and the significant computational cost of realistic three-dimensional simulations. Here, we propose an efficient uncertainty quantification framework utilizing a multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo (MLMF) estimator to improve the accuracy of hemodynamic quantities of interest while maintaining reasonable computational cost. This is achieved by leveraging three cardiovascular model fidelities, each with varying spatial resolution to rigorously quantify the variability in hemodynamic outputs. We employ two low-fidelity models (zero- and one-dimensional) to construct several different estimators. Our goal is to investigate and compare the efficiency of estimators built from combinations of these two low-fidelity model alternatives and our high-fidelity three-dimensional models. We demonstrate this framework on healthy and diseased models of aortic and coronary anatomy, including uncertainties in material property and boundary condition parameters. Our goal is to demonstrate that for this application it is possible to accelerate the convergence of the estimators by utilizing a MLMF paradigm. Therefore, we compare our approach to single fidelity Monte Carlo estimators and to a multilevel Monte Carlo approach based only on three-dimensional simulations, but leveraging multiple spatial resolutions. We demonstrate significant, on the order of 10 to 100 times, reduction in total computational cost with the MLMF estimators. We also examine the differing properties of the MLMF estimators in healthy versus diseased models, as well as global versus local quantities of interest. As expected, global quantities such as outlet pressure and flow show larger reductions than local quantities, such as those relating to wall shear stress, as the latter rely more heavily on the highest fidelity model evaluations. Similarly, healthy models show larger reductions than diseased models. In all cases, our workflow coupling Dakota’s MLMF estimators with the SimVascular cardiovascular modeling framework makes uncertainty quantification feasible for constrained computational budgets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Critical nuclei at hetero-phase interfaces

Two-step nucleation, in which a metastable intermediate phase acts as a precursor for nucleating a thermodynamically stable phase, has been widely observed in many materials systems and solid-state reactions. Among the advantages of two-step nucleation is that the stable phase may nucleate heterogeneously at the hetero-phase interface between the original and the precursory phases. Although heterogeneous nucleation (HN) theories for homo-phase grain boundaries and inert surfaces are well established, our understanding of HN at reactive hetero-phase interfaces remains incomplete. This deficiency stems from the discontinuity of the chemical potential driving force across the hetero-phase interface, which profoundly affects the fundamental properties of the nucleus in a way that is not properly accounted for in existing models. In this work, we incorporate these effects to extend the classical nucleation theory to HN at hetero-phase interfaces. Our extended model demonstrates that the nucleus shape along the minimum energy path is strongly size-dependent, and this additional degree of freedom can result in the reduction of the critical nucleus volume and associated activation energy barrier by orders of magnitude relative to conventional predictions. The simulation results are used to construct a sensitivity map in the parameter space of interfacial energy and bulk driving force ratios, which quantifies the difference in nucleation barriers predicted by different models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exponential Improvements in the Simulation of Lattice Gauge Theories Using Near-Optimal Techniques

We report a first-of-its-kind analysis on post-Trotter simulation of U(1), SU(2), and SU(3) lattice gauge theories including fermions in arbitrary spatial dimension. We provide explicit circuit constructions as well as T-gate counts and logical qubit counts for Hamiltonian simulation. We find a reduction of up to 25 orders of magnitude in space-time volume over Trotter methods for simulations of non-Abelian lattice gauge theories relevant to the standard model. This improvement results from our algorithm having polynomial scaling with the number of colors in the gauge theory, achieved by utilizing oracle constructions relying on the sparsity of physical operators, in contrast to the exponential scaling seen in state-of-the-art Trotter methods, which employ explicit mappings onto Pauli operators. Our work demonstrates that the use of advanced algorithmic techniques leads to dramatic reductions in the cost of simulating fundamental interactions, bringing it in step with resources required for first-principles quantum simulation of chemistry.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

(2 + δ)-dimensional theory of the electromechanics of lipid membranes: Electrostatics

The coupling of electric fields to the mechanics of lipid membranes gives rise to intriguing electromechanical behavior, as, for example, evidenced by the deformation of lipid vesicles in external electric fields. Electromechanical effects are relevant for many biological processes, such as the propagation of action potentials in axons and the activation of mechanically gated ion channels. Currently, a theoretical framework describing the electromechanical behavior of arbitrarily curved and deforming lipid membranes does not exist. Purely mechanical models commonly treat lipid membranes as two-dimensional surfaces, ignoring their finite thickness. While holding analytical and numerical merit, this approach cannot describe the coupling of lipid membranes to electric fields and is thus unsuitable for electromechanical models. In a sequence of articles, we derive an effective surface theory of the electromechanics of lipid membranes, called the (2 + δ)-dimensional theory, which has the advantages of surface descriptions while accounting for finite thickness effects. The present article proposes a generic dimension reduction procedure relying on low-order spectral expansions. This procedure is applied to the electrostatics of lipid membranes to obtain the (2 + δ)-dimensional theory that captures potential differences across and electric fields within lipid membranes. Finally, this model is tested on different geometries relevant for lipid membranes, showing good agreement with the corresponding three-dimensional electrostatics theory.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of a second-order thermal network model for residential buildings

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems can maintain the space air temperature of residential buildings, either directly by heating/cooling the air, or indirectly via heat transfer to and from the building structure that acts as a thermal mass. Hence, HVAC systems can help achieve load shifting, peak load reduction, and/or energy cost saving, thus enabling grid-interactive HVAC operation. A home thermal model that can accurately reflect the dynamics of the space air and interior wall surface temperatures, is therefore valuable. This paper develops such a model using the standard RC (resistance-capacitance) approach. The model contains a virtual envelope node and an internal space node and is thus second-order. A hybrid parameter identification scheme, made up of the least-squares and optimal search methods, is also developed. The proposed model and scheme were validated using data collected from a test home. It was found that a modest amount of training data was sufficient to yield reliable parameter estimates and accurate prediction. It was also found that when making 24-hour-ahead prediction of the space air temperature, both methods had comparable performances when the training data began in a transition season. However, when they began in an HVAC season, the optimal search method performed better. Furthermore, the least-squares method is recommended during a transition season due to its lower computational burden, while the optimal search method is recommended during an HVAC season due to its better estimation performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Building Durable Multimetallic Electrocatalysts from Intermetallic Seeds

When combined with earth-abundant metals, Pt-based alloy nanoparticles (NPs) can be cost-effective electrocatalysts. However, these NPs can experience leaching of non-noble-metal components under harsh electrocatalytic conditions. In this work, the Skrabalak group has demonstrated a novel NP construct in which Pt-based random alloy surfaces are stabilized against non-noble-metal leaching by their deposition onto intermetallic seeds. These core@shell NPs are highly durable electrocatalysts, with the ability to tune catalytic performance by the core@shell architecture, surface alloy composition, and NP shape. This versatility was demonstrated in a model system in which random alloy (ra-) PtM surfaces were deposited onto ordered intermetallic (i-) PdCu seeds using seed-mediated co-reduction (SMCR). In the initial demonstration, ra-PtCu shells were deposited on i-PdCu seeds, with these core@shell NPs exhibiting higher specific and mass activities for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) when compared to similarly sized ra-PtCu NPs. These NPs also showed outstanding durability, maintaining ~85% in specific activity after 5000 cycles. Characterization of the NPs after use revealed minimal loss of Cu. The activity enhancement was attributed to the strained surface that arises from the lattice mismatch between the intermetallic core and random alloy surface. The outstanding durability was attributed to the ordered structure of the intermetallic core. The origin of this durability enhancement was investigated by classical molecular dynamics simulations, where Pt atoms were found to have a lower potential energy when deposited on an intermetallic core than when deposited on a random alloy core. Also, ordering of Cu atoms at the core@shell interface appears to enhance the overall binding between the core and the shell materials. Inspired by this initial demonstration, SMCR has been used to achieve shells of different random alloy compositions, PtM (M = Ni, Co, Cu, or Fe). This advance is significant because ligand effects vary as a function of PtM identity and Pt/M ratio. These features also influence the degree of surface strain imparted from the lattice mismatch between the core and shell materials. Like the initial demonstration, standout features of these core@shell NPs were high durability and resistance to non-noble metal leaching. Moving forward, efforts have been directed toward integrating shape-control to this core@shell NP construct. This integration is motivated by the shape-dependent catalytic performance of NPs derived from the selective expression of specific facets. Considering the initial i-PdCu@ra-PtCu system, NPs with a cubic shape have been achieved by judicious selection of capping ligands during SMCR. Evaluation of these NPs as catalysts for the electrooxidation of formic acid found that the nanocubic shape enhances catalytic performance compared to similar core@shell NPs with a spherical morphology. We envision that SMCR can be applied to other NP systems to achieve highly durable catalysts as the syntheses of monodisperse and shape-controlled intermetallic seeds are advanced. This Account highlights the role of intermetallic cores in providing more durable electrocatalysts. More broadly, the versatility of SMCR is highlighted as a route to integrate architecture, alloy surfaces, and shape within one NP system, and how this achievement is inspiring new high-performance and robust catalysts is discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enhanced Dynamic Equivalent Identification Method of Large-Scale Power Systems Using Multiple Event

The increasing complexity of the interconnected power system makes high-fidelity dynamic simulation models computationally more intensive. To improve computation efficiency, model reduction techniques have been investigated to only preserve the dynamics in a limited area of interest (study area), while deriving equivalent representation for the external area. For this purpose, a measurement-based reduction approach using system identification techniques has been previously proposed. In that case, external areas are represented by dynamic equivalent loads using transfer function estimation. In this paper, in order to enhance the accuracy of the reduced model in preserving dynamics of the study area, multiple “grid” events of different types and at different locations are considered for identifying the parameters of the equivalent loads. Case studies are carried out in the NPCC 140-bus system. Comparison are made between multiple events training and single event training, highlighting the advantages of the proposed method in providing a better representation of the grid dynamics under different operating conditions.

Xue, Yaosuo↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonintrusive projection-based reduced order modeling using stable learned differential operators

Nonintrusive projection-based reduced order models (ROMs) are essential for dynamics prediction in multi-query applications where underlying governing equations are known but the access to the source of the underlying full order model (FOM) is unavailable; that is, FOM is a glass-box. This article proposes a learn-then-project approach for nonintrusive model reduction. In the first step of this approach, high-dimensional stable sparse learned differential operators (S-LDOs) are determined using the generated data. In the second step, the ordinary differential equations, comprising these S-LDOs, are used with suitable dimensionality reduction and low-dimensional subspace projection methods to provide equations for the evolution of reduced states. This approach allows easy integration into the existing intrusive ROM framework to enable nonintrusive model reduction while allowing the use of Petrov–Galerkin projections. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated for Galerkin and LSPG projection-based ROMs through four numerical experiments: 1-D scalar advection, 1-D Burgers, 2-D scalar advection and 1-D scalar advection–diffusion–reaction equations. In conclusion, the results indicate that the proposed nonintrusive ROM strategy provides accurate and stable dynamics prediction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

HGQ: High Granularity Quantization for Real-time Neural Networks on FPGAs

Neural networks with sub-microsecond inference latency are required by many critical applications. Targeting such applications deployed on FPGAs, we present High Granularity Quantization (HGQ), a quantization-aware training framework that optimizes parameter bit-widths through gradient descent. Unlike conventional methods, HGQ determines the optimal bit-width for each parameter independently, making it suitable for hardware platforms supporting heterogeneous arbitrary precision arithmetic. In our experiments, HGQ shows superior performance compared to existing network compression methods, achieving orders of magnitude reduction in resource consumption and latency while maintaining the accuracy on several benchmark tasks. These improvements enable the deployment of complex models previously infeasible due to resource or latency constraints. HGQ is open-source and is used for developing next-generation trigger systems at the CERN ATLAS and CMS experiments for particle physics, enabling the use of advanced machine learning models for real-time data selection with sub-microsecond latency.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Superelement reduction of substructures for sequential load calculations in OpenFAST

This article presents the superelement formulation newly implemented in OpenFAST to simulate fixed-bottom substructures with a reduced-order model similar to a common industry practice. The Guyan and Craig-Bampton methods are used to reduce the number of degrees of freedom and generate a so-called "superelement". The formulation allows manufacturers to exchange such superelements to perform load calculations without revealing sensitive information about the support structure (e.g., foundation, substructure, and/or tower) or turbine. The source code is made publicly available in the OpenFAST repository. Test cases with varying degrees of complexity are presented to validate the technique, and accuracy issues are discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗