Lunex II - A study on manned lunar exploration.
Crew performance evaluation via behavioral and psychophysiological tests in Lunex 2 simulated lunar mobile laboratory
Burns, N. M.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “mobility behavior”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Exploring the Photophysics of N-Type Polymer N2200
The polymer interphase is a complex environment comprised of polymer chains, solvent molecules, and electrolyte ions. However, the microenvironments that these ingredients produce is both poorly-understood and difficult to investigate given the system's inherent structural heterogeneity. Nonetheless, a fundamental understanding of the structure, electrochemical behavior, and excited-state dynamics is a key prerequisite to optimizing devices based on such a system - for instance, photoelectrochemical cells for the direct, light-driven production of solar hydrogen, which may minimize efficiency losses compared to sequential light harvesting and electrochemical hydrogen production in separate but linked devices. This work combines transient absorption (TA) spectroscopy, which is a powerful tool for the observation of a variety of excited states on a femto- to microsecond timescale, with time-resolved microwave conductivity (TRMC) spectroscopy, which selectively probes the dynamics of free charge carriers (FC), of a blend of a donor polymer (PTB7-Th) and acceptor polymer (N2200) in a bulk heterojunction. Initial results indicate an extension of FC lifetime and homogenization of the microenvironment on a whole-film level, not just at the surface of the polymer; however, many questions are still under active investigation, including the changes in energy of the involved polaron states, effective conjugation length, FC mobility and migration distance, etc. Additional experiments regarding the photoinitiated behavior of the blend in different environments and on different timescales are ongoing.
charge recombination↗
Ferromagnetism in a Semiconductor with Mobile Carriers via Low-Level Nonmagnetic Doping
We show that doped cubic iron pyrite, which is a diamagnetic semiconductor, becomes ferromagnetic when p-type doped. We furthermore find that this material can exhibit high spin polarization both for tunneling and transport devices. These results are based on first-principles electronic structure and transport calculations. This illustrates the use of p-type doping without magnetic impurities as a strategy for obtaining ferromagnetic semiconducting behavior, with implications for spintronic applications that require both magnetic ordering and good mobility. This is a combination that has been difficult to achieve by doping semiconductors with magnetic impurities. We show that phosphorus and arsenic may be effective dopants for achieving this behavior.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Thick plate bending wave transmission using a mobility power flow approach
The mobility power flow (MPF) approach is used in this paper to describe the flexural behavior of an L-shaped plate structure consisting of thick plates with rotary inertia and shear deformation effects included in the analysis. The introduction of the thick plate effects significantly increases the complexity of the structural mobility functions used in the definitions of the power flow terms; however, because of the substructuring that is used in the MPF approach, the complexity of the problem is significantly reduced as compared to solving for the global structure. Additionally, with the MPF approach the modal behavior is described. The MPF analysis of the L-shaped plate is performed for the case of point force excitation on one plate, with the two plates being identical in both size and thickness. The results of this analysis are compared to results from the finite-element analysis (FEA) and the statistical energy analysis (SEA) and show very good agreement in the low- and high-frequency regimes, respectively.
Mccollum, M. D.↗
The role of irradiation-enhanced interstitial diffusion in over-pressurizing fission gas bubbles in UO 2
Fission gas bubbles in UO 2 nuclear fuel have been observed to exhibit pressures in excess of the equilibrium bubble pressure; however, the cause of bubble over-pressurization has not yet been demonstrated. The mechanical interaction between a bubble and the surrounding matrix or grain boundary depends on the internal pressure of the bubble and local stress state, such that over-pressurized bubbles are thought to be responsible for fragmentation and pulverization, when exposed to a temperature ramp. Here, in this work, we investigate the role of U interstitials, produced through irradiation, in over-pressurizing bubbles by using a combined molecular dynamics (MD) and cluster dynamics approach. Firstly, the energies for the capture of interstitials and vacancies by bubbles have been determined from MD as a function of the ratio of gas atoms to vacancies that make up the bubble. Secondly, these reaction energies have been implemented in the cluster dynamics code Centipede to predict bubble over-pressurization as a function of temperature for typical fission rates. It was found that there is a transition from low pressure bubbles (at high temperatures) to high pressure bubbles (at lower temperatures). The cause of this behavior was shown to be the creation of irradiation-induced interstitials that are highly mobile relative to vacancies at low temperature; whereas, vacancies are sufficiently mobile at high temperatures to limit bubble pressures. This result supports the hypothesis that over-pressurized bubbles form during steady-state operation and that this behavior is highly sensitive to the local pellet temperature.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Effects of Mineral Impurities and Heat on Uranium(VI) Sorption onto Bentonite (Final Report)
Most nuclear waste disposal options include compacted bentonite, consisting of montmorillonite clay, as part of a barrier system to minimize contaminant mobility. Uranium (U) is the primary element in spent nuclear fuel, and from an environmental perspective, a potential contaminant of water resources. Furthermore, uranium may control nuclear fuel degradation rates and the consequent release of other radioactive contaminants based on its diffusive transport away from waste canisters. Uranium sorption onto clay and other mineral surfaces is expected to limit U(VI) mobility in these systems. However, at this point a prediction of U(VI) sorption and transport behavior in performance assessment (PA) models is complicated by a series of factors, such as: (1) the presence of various U(VI) solution species with different charges and sorption characteristics; (2) the complex microstructure of montmorillonite clay resulting in two types of clay porosities and multiple sorption sites; (3) the largely unknown effects of bentonite mineral impurities on pore water chemistry, U(VI) sorption and diffusion behavior; and (4) the potential impacts of heat, generated by the decay of spent fuel, on mineralogical and microstructural transformations, and any subsequent effects on radionuclide sorption and mobility. In this project, we investigated the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion onto montmorillonite before and after mineral exposure to heat. Overall, our main goals were to: 1. Gain a mechanistic understanding of the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion in montmorillonite/bentonite at variable chemical conditions, and before and after mineral exposure to heat; and to 2. Work towards the development of new surface complexation and diffusion models to predict U(VI) sorption and mobility in montmorillonite/bentonite while accounting for the impacts of calcite impurities and heat. In order to achieve these goals, we pursued the following research objectives and tasks: 1. Characterize the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption onto Na-montmorillonite, and evaluate if and how these effects change due to solids’ exposure to heat (Task 1). 2. Characterize U(VI) surface speciation in solid samples from Task 1, with a particular focus on U(VI) precipitates and co-precipitates (Task 2). 3. Test the relevance of observed changes in U(VI) sorption characteristics for U(VI) diffusive transport behavior in bentonite barriers (Task 3). 4. Evaluate the exclusion of anionic U(VI) solution complexes from clay nanopores (Task 4). 5. Building on Tasks 1-4, start the development of new surface complexation and reactive transport models that can simulate and predict U(VI) sorption and diffusion in complex bentonite systems (Task 5). A detailed description of all tasks, and their specific results and conclusions is provided in this report.
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
2022 Bull E-Bike Pilot Program Study
In 2022, the City of Durham conducted an e-bike pilot program study to learn more about how electric bikes (e-bikes) could improve the transportation experience in the "Bull City" (a.k.a., Durham, North Carolina). The study used pedal-assist e-bikes, which feature an electric motor and battery to help power the bike. The motor amplifies the power behind each pedal stroke, augmenting the energy you put into the bike. #### Data Collection Agency The City of Durham's Transportation Department conducted the study. #### Survey Methodology Program participants used electric-assist e-bikes for at least 4 weeks between August and November 2022 in exchange for sharing information about their experiences, including tracking their travel via a smartphone app. In addition to the e-bike, participants received maintenance support along with a helmet, bike lock, and other accessories. Data collection was enabled by the [NLR OpenPATH platform](https://www.nlr.gov/transportation/openpath.html). #### Survey Records and Data Survey records include a total of 76 participants. The dataset contains 3 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed travel behavior data—patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic and socioeconomic information from participants. The number of total trips was 6,488, the number of e-bike trips was 2,183, and the number of e-bike miles traveled was 5,450.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Impacts and emerging research opportunities in Vehicle-Grid Integration for transportation: A review
This review provides a comprehensive examination of Vehicle-Grid Integration (VGI) technologies and their impacts on transportation systems, with a particular emphasis on the transportation-energy nexus. It systematically explores how VGI affects key transportation applications such as charging infrastructure planning, electric vehicle (EV) routing, smart charging coordination, shared mobility, and dynamic pricing. By synthesizing recent literature from both transportation and energy systems perspectives, this study highlights how advanced methodologies, such as reinforcement learning, game theory, and optimization techniques, are used to model the complex interactions between EVs, mobility patterns, and distributed energy systems. Furthermore, the review also identifies critical challenges, including behavioral factors, data limitations, and system scalability. Drawing on these insights, the paper outlines emerging research opportunities to support the design of integrated, resilient, and user-centric VGI solutions that advance sustainable mobility and energy system efficiency.
Charging coordination↗
Domain Wall Reactions in Multiple-Order Parameter Ferroelectrics
The motion of domain walls is crucial for ferroelectric switching. Conventionally, the switching dynamics is believed to be determined by the motion of one or a few low-energy domain wall types of dominant population. Here, we challenge this conventional idea in multiple-order-parameter ferroelectrics. Using hafnia as example, we show that the multiple-order-parameter nature not only provides various mobile domain walls and defectlike immobile domain walls, but also enables the domain wall reactions. In analogy with chemical reactions where substances react to form new substances, domain walls could also react to form other domain walls during switching. We identify several elementary domain wall reaction types including synthesis, decomposition, and exchange reactions. Domain walls are continually changed by these reactions during switching so that the switching behavior reflects the statistical average of many domain wall types with distinct mobility and stability. These reactions also lead to phenomenon like remanent nuclei and defect-site nucleation that facilitate switching and lower coercive field. Finally, the concept of domain wall reaction is not limited to hafnia but can be generalized to any multiple-order-parameter ferroelectric. As a result, this Letter conceptualizes domain wall reaction, expands the theory of ferroelectric switching, and suggests a practical way for defect engineering to control switching behavior.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Integrated Research Plan to Assess the Combined Effects of Space Radiation, Altered Gravity, and Isolation and Confinement on Crew Health and Performance: Problem Statement
Future crewed exploration missions to Mars could last up to three years and will expose astronauts to unprecedented environmental challenges. Challenges to the nervous system during these missions will include factors of: space radiation that can damage sensitive neurons in the central nervous system (CNS); isolation and confinement can affect cognition and behavior; and altered gravity that will change the astronauts’ perception of their environment and their spatial orientation, and will affect their coordination, balance, and locomotion. In the past, effects of spaceflight stressors have been characterized individually. However, long-term, simultaneous exposure to multiple stressors will produce a range of interrelated behavioral and biological effects that have the potential to adversely affect operationally relevant crew performance. These complex environmental challenges might interact synergistically and increase the overall risk to the health and performance of the astronaut. Therefore, NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) has directed an integrated approach to characterize and mitigate the risk to the CNS from simultaneous exposure to these multiple spaceflight factors. The proposed research strategy focuses on systematically evaluating the relationships among three existing research risks associated with spaceflight: Risk of Acute (In-flight) and Late Central Nervous System Effects from Radiation (CNS), Risk of Adverse Cognitive or Behavioral Conditions and Psychiatric Disorders (BMed), and Risk of Impaired Control of Spacecraft/Associated Systems and Decreased Mobility Due to Vestibular/Sensorimotor Alterations Associated with Spaceflight (SM). NASA’s HRP approach is intended to identify the magnitude and types of interactions as they affect behavior, especially as it relates to operationally relevant performance (e.g., performance that depends on reaction time, procedural memory, etc.). In order to appropriately characterize this risk of multiple spaceflight environmental stressors, there is a recognition of the need to leverage research approaches using appropriate animal models and behavioral constructs. Very little has been documented on the combined effects of altered gravity, space radiation, and other psychological and cognitive stressors on the CNS. Preliminary evidence from rodents suggest that a combination of a minimum of exposures to even two of three stressors of: simulated space radiation, simulated microgravity, and simulated isolation and confinement, have produced different and more pronounced biological and performance effects than exposure to these same stressors individually. Structural and functional changes to the CNS of rodents exposed to transdisciplinary combined stressors indicate that important processes related to information processing are likely altered including impairment of exploratory and risk taking behaviors, as well as executive function including learning, memory, and cognitive flexibility — all of which may be linked to changes in related operational relevant performance. The fully integrated research plan outlines approaches to evaluate how combined, potentially synergistic, impacts of simultaneous exposures to spaceflight hazards will affect an astronaut’s CNS and their operationally relevant performance during future exploration missions, including missions to the Moon and Mars. The ultimate goals are to derive risk estimates for the combined, potentially synergistic, effects of the three major spaceflight hazards that will establish acceptable maximum decrement or change in a physiological or behavioral parameters during or after spaceflight, the acceptable limit of exposure to a spaceflight factor, and to evaluate strategies to mitigate any associated decrements in operationally relevant performance.
Steinberg, Susan L.↗
Plutonium reactive transport in fractured granite: Multi-species experiments and simulations
Plutonium (Pu) in the subsurface environment can transport in different oxidation states as an aqueous solute or as colloidal particles. The transport behavior of Pu is affected by the relative abundances of these species and can be difficult to predict when they simultaneously exist. This study investigates the concurrent transport of Pu intrinsic colloids, Pu(IV) (aq) and Pu(V-VI) (aq) through a combination of controlled experiments and semi-analytical dual-porosity transport modeling. Pu transport experiments were conducted in a fractured granite at high and low flow rates to elucidate sorption processes and their scaling behavior. In the experiments, Pu(IV) (aq) was the least mobile of the Pu species, Pu(V-VI) (aq) had intermediate mobility, and the colloidal Pu, which consisted mainly of precipitated and/or hydrolyzed Pu(IV), was the most mobile. The semi-analytical modeling revealed that the sorption of each Pu species was rate-limited, as the sorption could not be described by assuming local equilibrium in the experiments. The model was able to describe the sorption of the different Pu species that occurring either on fracture surfaces, in the pores of the rock matrix, or simultaneously in both locations. While equally good fits to the data could be achieved using any of these assumptions, a fracture-dominated process was considered to be the most plausible because it provided the most reasonable estimates of sorption rate constants. Importantly, a key result of this work is that the sorption rate constant of all Pu species tends to decrease with increasing time scales, which implies that Pu will tend to be more mobile at longer time scales than observations at shorter time scales suggest. This result has important implications for predicting the environmental impacts of Pu in the safety assessments of geologic repositories for radioactive waste disposal, and we explore potential mechanistic bases for upscaling the sorption rate constants to time and distance scales that cannot be practically evaluated in experiments.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Optimizing protic ionic liquid electrolyte for pre-intercalated Ti 3 C 2 T x MXene supercapacitor electrodes
Electrical double-layer capacitors (EDLCs) are of increasing importance in energy storage from renewable sources. The properties of the electrode and electrolyte materials influence the energy and power densities of EDLCs. We examined the specific capacitance and ion dynamics of a protic ionic liquid confined in pre-intercalated Ti 3 C 2 T x MXene. Our electrochemical measurements demonstrated that the creation of a protic ionic liquid, 1-butyl-3-H-imidazolium bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (BuIMH-NTf2), using a mixture of ionic liquid, 1-butyl imidazole (BuIM), and salt, bis(trifluoromethanesulfonyl)imide (HNTf2), in a ratio of 0.8:0.2 led to the optimal capacitance. Remarkably, quasi-elastic neutron scattering measurements revealed increased particle mobility at this composition, attributed to the more efficient accumulation of BuIMH + on the electrode surface. This deposit of additional ions results in fewer BuIM molecules away from the surface, enhancing their mobility due to reduced crowding. This composition-dependent electrochemical behavior will guide the formulation of more efficient protic ionic liquid systems, enabling faster ion transport in energy storage devices.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Community and Passenger Survey Responses for Bastrop, Texas Low-Speed Electric Vehicle Mobility Service Project
This document describes the contents of the following data products: 1. ALL-survey_results_NREL_LiveWire_04_14_2023 (Excel file with two worksheets) 2. eCab_DOE_NREL_LiveWire_04_14_2023_results_all_surveys_except_SP_csv (CSV file) 3. eCab_DOE_NREL_LiveWire_04_14_2023_SP_survey_results_only_csv (CSV file). These data products contain the results of the surveys conducted throughout the DOE-funded Electric First-/Last-Mile On-Demand Shuttle Service for Rural Communities in Central Texas project. The Excel file is the original database of all the survey results (contained in two worksheets). The CSV files are those two worksheets saved as individual CSV files.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Pseudomorphic InGaAs/AlGaAs modulation-doped FET's with reduced low-frequency noise and thermally stable performance
A high-performance MODFET structure grown by MBE with the incorporation of a single quantum well In(0.15)Ga(0.85)As layer for the transport of two-dimensional electron gas has been critically examined for its thermal stability at 80 K and low-frequency noise form 0.01 to 10 to the 8th Hz. Experimental results indicate that the behavior of this device in both these respects is much superior when compared with the same behavior of conventional MODFETs. A maximum low-field carrier mobility of 29,000 sq cm/s at 80 K and an average carrier saturation velocity of 2 x 10 to the 7th cm/s at 300 K in a 1-micron gate device clearly indicate that the quality of the pseudomorphic quantum well (InGaAs) layer is either comparable or better than that of the usual GaAs buffer layer. The deep level spectra, obtained through photo-FET measurements, and the low-frequency noise spectra at different temperatures obtained for the new pseudomorphic and conventional MODFET's have clearly indicated that contributions from various deep levels present in the new structure are significantly reduced.
Liu, Shih-Ming↗
2021–2022 Can Do Colorado E-Bike Full-Scale Pilot Program Study
In 2021–2022, the Colorado Energy Office conducted a full-scale pilot program study on e-bike usage as part of the Can Do Colorado initiative, providing e-bikes to low-income participants across the state. A [2020 mini pilot program study](https://www.nlr.gov/transportation/secure-transportation-data/tsdc-2020-can-do-colorado-e-bike-pilot-program.html) informed the full-scale study. Both studies used pedal-assist e-bikes, which feature an electric motor and battery to help power the bike. The motor amplifies the power behind each pedal stroke, augmenting the energy you put into the bike. #### Data Collection Agency The Colorado Energy Office conducted the study in partnership with local organizations in Adams and Broomfield counties (Smart Commute Metro North), Boulder (Community Cycles), Durango (Four Corners Office for Resource Efficiency), Fort Collins (City of Fort Collins), Pueblo (Pueblo County), and Vail (Town of Vail). #### Survey Methodology Program participants received an e-bike and accessories at no cost and manually submitted travel data and feedback via the CanBikeCO smartphone app. Developed in partnership with NLR, the app used a customized version of the open-source [NLR OpenPATH platform](https://www.nlr.gov/transportation/openpath.html). #### Survey Records and Data Survey records include 170 participants. The six datasets contain up to 18 months of partially automated travel diaries, combining sensed and surveyed travel behavior data—patterns of multimodal, end-to-end, individual human mobility—as well as demographic information from participants. The number of e-bike trips and e-bike miles traveled per location are 1,560 and 4,179 for Adams and Broomfield counties; 8,481 and 27,000 for Boulder; 2,815 and 6,307 for Durango; 3,483 and 7,080 for Fort Collins; 4,022 and 14,887 for Pueblo, and 1,206 and 3,3361 for Vail.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Microstructure, stored energy, and stability of H/He-filled nanocavities in low temperature irradiated Inconel 718
The microstructure, trapped transmutation gases, stored energy, and mechanical behavior of samples from an irradiated Inconel 718 proton beam window were characterized using transmission electron microcopy, thermal desorption spectrometry (TDS), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and tensile testing. In the as-irradiated condition the microstructure contained a high number density of 1–3 nm gas-filled nanocavities. Emissions of trapped gases, H and He, during TDS correlated with peaks of the energy release curves from DSC examinations, which suggest these gases were likely stored in highly stable defect traps. The stored energy from radiation damage saturated at doses of a few dpa and did not increase with increasing radiation dose, but the amount of stored H and He increased with increasing dose. Effects of post-irradiation annealing were studied as well. After exposure to 700 °C, the nanocavities grew only slightly to 2–4 nm in diameter, but after exposure to 900 °C, the cavities grew to 10–20 nm in diameter and electron energy-loss spectroscopy showed these cavities contained a core of He surrounded by a shell of H. Further, this study demonstrated that the irradiation defect structures containing H and He were remarkably stable during irradiation and after exposure up to 700 °C. The effect of the irradiation temperature, defect mobility, and interaction of H, He, and irradiation defects on mechanical behavior provides insight into the processes responsible for the unusual recovery in ductility with increasing radiation dose observed in Inconel 718 after high energy proton and spallation neutron irradiation.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
(NH 3 (CH 2 ) 7 NH 3 ) 2 Sn 3 I 10 , a Vacancy-Ordered Three-Dimensional Tin(II) Perovskite-Derived Semiconductor
Ordering vacancies in hybrid Sn(II) halide semiconductors provides a strategy for preventing uncontrolled oxidation and formation of mobile holes. In this study, we report the structure and optical and electronic properties of (NH 3 (CH 2 ) 7 NH 3 ) 2 Sn 3 I 10 , a vacancy-ordered perovskite derivative with three-dimensional inorganic connectivity. The crystal structure resembles that of a Dion–Jacobson layered perovskite derivative, but with [SnI 5 ] square pyramids bridging the layers. UV–vis diffuse reflectance spectroscopy reveals a sharp onset of light absorption at 1.86(1) eV with the photoluminescence emission maximum at 1.90(1) eV. However, the maximum excitation occurs from 3.42 to 3.81 eV (325 to 370 nm), revealing a significant Stokes shift of 1.3 eV. The electronic properties determined from dark and time-resolved microwave conductivity measurements reveal a minimum carrier mobility of 4.3 × 10 –2 cm 2 V –1 s –1 and a maximum carrier density of 5.96 × 10 16 cm –3 , a uniquely low value for a hybrid Sn(II) halide semiconductor. The transport behavior in combination with first-principles calculations of the electronic band structure and dielectric permittivity suggest polaron-mediated electronic transport, yet the photogenerated carriers have a fast and fluence-dependent nonradiative recombination rate, suggestive of localized “defect-like” states at the band edge. The observed photoluminescence is most consistent with single-ion-like behavior of an asymmetric Sn(II) environment. Together, these results suggest that defect ordering presents a strategy for the reduction of mobile charge carriers at equilibrium.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study
Background The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. Objective In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. Methods We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. Results Our analysis demonstrated that the pre–national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. Conclusions Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.
Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗