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At least 181 records · Page 10

Microreactor Core Transportation Cask Model Description for Criticality Safety Validation Basis Assessment (Rev. 1)

Criticality safety analyses are completed on transportation casks used for microreactor whole core shipment to provide examples of models and analyses to industry, regulators, and nuclear community at large to be used in verification and validation analyses of similar applications. The microreactors considered are based on a Gas-Cooled Microreactor (GCMR) and a Heat-Pipe Microreactor (HPMR), both utilize HALEU fuel in the form of TRISO particles and various other design options considered in industry microreactor designs. Variant design options of GCMR and HPMR were also investigated to provide a wider application range for each technology. Criticality safety analyses for the GCMR and HPMR packages were performed using the CSAS6 sequence of SCALE 6.3.2 with the ENDF/B-VII.1-based continuous energy neutron libraries. Different scenarios were investigated, including normal operation and water flooded conditions to represent nominal and hypothetical accident scenarios. Sensitivity and similarity analyses are also performed using the TSUNAMI sequence of SCALE 6.3.2, and the similarity analysis uses all the experiments from the ICSBEP Handbook with Intermediate and mixed Enriched Uranium (IEU) and Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) systems, together with additional experiments that are sponsored by the DNCSH program. Many experiments were found marginally similar to the GCMR and HPMR models, with similarity index (ck) values greater than 0.8 but less than 0.9. Among all the experiments analyzed, no case has a ck value greater than 0.9, indicating that additional critical experiments might be needed to further validate the criticality safety models for microreactors transport packages.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Fatigue crack growth reliability by probabilistic finite elements

Fusion of the probabilistic finite-element method and reliability analysis for probabilistic fatigue-crack growth is presented. A comprehensive method for determining the probability of fatigue failure for mixed-mode cyclic loading is also presented. The loading is mixed-mode with randomness in the initial and final crack lengths, initial crack angle and position, material properties, crack-growth law, crack-direction law, and loading. The methodology consists of calculating the reliability index via an optimization procedure which is used to calculate the probability of fatigue failure. Performance of the methodology presented is demonstrated on a classical mode-I fatigue problem.

Besterfield, Glen H.↗

DNS of a Simplified Gas Turbine Premixer: Auto-Ignition and Flame Stabilization

With the increasing need for fuel-flexibility, an understanding of auto-ignition inside gas turbine premixers is crucial. Direct numerical simulation (DNS) is a great tool to reveal the fine grain details of physics inside the premixer and guide the choice of the models to use for less expensive simulations. We present numerical simulations of a simplified and downscaled premixer, with multiple air jets in rich fuel crossflow. The simulations show intense fuel-air mixing and flame-turbulence interaction. We examine flow acceleration by the incoming jets, and the combustion within the device. We observe low-temperature and high-temperature combustion signatures, and compute the flame index to quantify local stabilization modes.

combustion↗

Validation of the aerosol optical property products derived by the GRASP/Component approach from multi-angular polarimetric observations

The multi-angle polarimetric satellite observations are helpful for improving the retrievals of aerosol parameters. However, practical applications of polarization technology are still limited because of complexity of measurement and interpretation of polarimetric observations. In this study, we analyze the performance of a new component approach developed in the frame of the Generalized Retrieval of Atmosphere and Surface Properties (GRASP) algorithm. In addition to aerosol optical properties including particle size distribution, non-sphericity and index of refraction that are commonly derived from multi-angle radiance and polarization measurements, the GRASP/Component approach also provides some information about aerosol composition. Specifically, in this approach aerosol is modeled as an internal mixture of several components with distinctly different chemical compositions and known refractive indices. The approach is intended not only to provide additional insight on aerosol composition but also to improve retrieval of basic aerosol optical properties. This study presents comprehensive validation and evaluation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Ångstrom exponent (AE), fine mode AOD (AODF), coarse mode AOD (AODC), and single scattering albedo (SSA) as retrieved by the GRASP/Component approach. The GRASP/Component products include aerosol retrievals using two different aerosol component mixing rules, i.e., Maxwell-Garnett (MG) effective medium approximation and a simple Volume- Weighted averaging (VW). The differences between the results obtained using these two assumptions are also discussed. The obtained results show that the aerosol optical property products of GRASP/Component approach have good agreement with the ground-based AERONET measurements, which is comparable to other PARASOL/ GRASP approaches. Specifically, the AOD retrieved by GRASP/Component approach show high correlation and nearly no bias both over land and ocean, as compared with AERONET. The more detailed aerosol properties such as AE, AODF, AODC and SSA also show one of the best comparisons with AERONET. These improvements can probably be attributed to the use of the additional physical constraints on spectral dependence of the complex refractive index and the reduction of total number of aerosol parameters directly retrieved in the GRASP/Component approach. In addition, the choice of mixing rules had no significant effect on optical retrievals. With the exception of SSA, the results obtained based on the MG mixing rule were found to be slightly better over those obtained using VW mixing rule, especially for bias.

Brent N Holben↗

WASP-117 b: An Eccentric Hot Saturn as a Future Complex Chemistry Laboratory

We present spectral analysis of the transiting Saturn-mass planet WASP-117 b, observed with the G141 grism of the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Wide Field Camera 3. We reduce and fit the extracted spectrum from the raw transmission data using the open-source software Iraclis before performing a fully Bayesian retrieval using the publicly available analysis suite TauREx 3.0. We detect water vapor alongside a layer of fully opaque cloud, retrieving a terminator temperature of T{sub term}=833{sub -156}{sup +260} K. In order to quantify the statistical significance of this detection, we employ the atmospheric detectability index (ADI), deriving a value of ADI = 2.30, which provides positive but not strong evidence against the flat-line model. Due to the eccentric orbit of WASP-117 b, it is likely that chemical and mixing timescales oscillate throughout orbit due to the changing temperature, possibly allowing warmer chemistry to remain visible as the planet begins transit, despite the proximity of its point of ingress to apastron. We present simulated spectra of the planet as would be observed by the future space missions such as the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey and the James Webb Space Telescope and show that, despite not being able to probe such chemistry with current HST data, these observatories should make it possible in the not too distant future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Greenhouse Gas Concentration Data Recovery Algorithm for a Low Cost, Laser Heterodyne Radiometer

The goal of a coordinated effort between groups at GWU and NASA GSFC is the development of a low-cost, global, surface instrument network that continuously monitors three key carbon cycle gases in the atmospheric column: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), as well as oxygen (O2) for atmospheric pressure profiles. The network will implement a low-cost, miniaturized, laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) that has recently been developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. This mini-LHR is designed to operate in tandem with the passive aerosol sensor currently used in AERONET (a well established network of more than 450 ground aerosol monitoring instruments worldwide), and could be rapidly deployed into this established global network. Laser heterodyne radiometry is a well-established technique for detecting weak signals that was adapted from radio receiver technology. Here, a weak light signal, that has undergone absorption by atmospheric components, is mixed with light from a distributed feedback (DFB) telecommunications laser on a single-mode optical fiber. The RF component of the signal is detected on a fast photoreceiver. Scanning the laser through an absorption feature in the infrared, results in a scanned heterodyne signal io the RF. Deconvolution of this signal through the retrieval algorithm allows for the extraction of altitude contributions to the column signal. The retrieval algorithm is based on a spectral simulation program, SpecSyn, developed at GWU for high-resolution infrared spectroscopies. Variations io pressure, temperature, composition, and refractive index through the atmosphere; that are all functions of latitude, longitude, time of day, altitude, etc.; are modeled using algorithms developed in the MODTRAN program developed in part by the US Air Force Research Laboratory. In these calculations the atmosphere is modeled as a series of spherically symmetric shells with boundaries specified at defined altitudes. Temperature, pressure, and species mixing ratios are defined at these boundaries. Between the boundaries, temperature is assumed to vary linearly with altitude while pressure (and thus gas density) vary exponentially. The observed spectrum at the LHR instrument will be the integration of the contributions along this light path. For any absorption measurement the signal at a particular spectral frequency is a linear combination of spectral line contributions from several species. For each species that might absorb in a spectral region, we have pre-calculated its contribution as a function of temperature and pressure. The integrated path absorption spectrum can then by calculated using the initial sun angle (from location, date, and time) and assumptions about pressure and temperature profiles from an atmospheric model. The modeled spectrum is iterated to match the experimental observation using standard multilinear regression techniques. In addition to the layer concentrations, the numerical technique also provides uncertainty estimates for these quantities as well as dependencies on assumptions inherent in the atmospheric models.

Miller, J. Houston↗

Development and Validation of Physics-Based Sub-Models of High-Pressure Supercritical Fuel Injection at Diesel Conditions Insert

The project sought to develop and validate accurate, physics-based, numerical submodels and implement them in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software codes to enable accurate predictions of diesel sprays at pressures higher than the current systems. The combined experimental-computational effort has four main objectives: (1) acquire spatially and temporally resolved scalar measurements of fuel-oxidizer mixing in the near field of the fuel jet, (2) develop software modules to calculate thermo-physical properties of diesel surrogates and their mixtures with oxidizer of interest in real-gas operating regime, (3) integrate the real-fluid model into a commercial and an open-source CFD code to simulate fuel-air mixing in high-pressure diesel sprays, and (4) assess the robustness, accuracy, and uncertainty of the integrated CFD solvers in computing diesel sprays. Project accomplishments are consistent with the original goals of the project. Although we acquired spatially and temporally resolved scalar measurements, they were limited to refractive index difference and not to thermodynamic properties such as temperature and equivalence ratio. However, we successfully developed the theoretical background needed to acquire such measurements at diesel conditions and demonstrated the capability of the RSD for scalar measurements in a canonical turbulent jet flow replicating features of the diesel jet. Additional work will be needed to implement these procedures at high-pressure, high-temperature engine-like conditions of the CPFR. Mainly, we did not anticipate the need to find the liquid boundary and its statistical features or the state relationships between refractive index and thermodynamic properties, assuming the widely known Dale-Gladstone equation would suffice. Still, efforts devoted to these tasks were essential to fulfil the goals of the project and serves as the foundation on which many of the conclusions and key contributions of this project are based. Further assessment and application of the developed CFD codes is recommended to fully realize the benefits of this research.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Insights of Boundary Layer Turbulence Over the Complex Terrain of Central Himalaya from GVAX Field Campaign

Limited observations hinder understanding of turbulent characteristics in mountainous terrain resulting from heating or cooling of slopes, wind, vertical motions, and heat or moisture advection, which disperse aerosols and other pollutants over the region. In this study, the 1290 MHz radar wind profiler data are utilized to compute the boundary layer height (BLH), the refractive index structure constant (C n 2 ), and the energy dissipation rate (ε) over the central Himalayan site for the period of November 2011 to March 2012, from the intense Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) field measurements. The radar wind profiler (RWP) based estimation of BLH and ε is validated against the radiosonde, representing the effectiveness of the datasets for further investigation. The strong seasonal variation of log C n 2 and log ε, with average values of ≈ -12 m -2/3 and -2 m 2 s -3 , respectively, is associated with the mountain-induced local circulations and stability in the atmospheric boundary layer. The weak stratification during weak flow is found to be responsible for deep mixing, particularly in the nocturnal boundary layer in spring. Furthermore, the level of cloud cover significantly impacts the strength of turbulence, with the highest cloud cover resulting in a substantial increase in log C n 2 (approximately -11 m -2/3 ) due to intense updraft and downdraft motions compared to clear skies. Additionally, the distribution of aerosol loading across the site, coupled with the behavior of BLH, atmospheric stability, and orographic-induced circulations, implies distinctive seasonal mechanisms for transporting aerosols toward the mountains. This study offers valuable insights into the diurnal and seasonal patterns of turbulent mixing and the mechanisms behind the transport of pollutants through boundary layer processes over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Polariton Dynamics in Two-Dimensional Ruddlesden–Popper Perovskites Strongly Coupled with Plasmonic Lattices

Strong coupling between light and matter can produce hybrid eigenstates known as exciton-polaritons. Although polariton dynamics are important photophysical properties, the relaxation pathways of polaritons in different coupling regimes have seen limited attention. This paper reports the dynamics of hybridized states from 2D Ruddlesden-Popper perovskites coupled to plasmonic nanoparticle lattices. The open cavity architecture of Al lattices enables the coupling strength to be modulated by varying either the lead halide perovskite film thickness or the superstrate refractive index. Both experiments and finite-difference time-domain simulations of the optical dispersion diagrams showed avoided crossings that are a signature of strong coupling. Furthermore, our analytical model also elucidated the correlation between the exciton/plasmon mixing ratio and polariton coupling strength. Using fs-transient absorption spectroscopy, we found that both the upper and lower polaritons have shorter lifetimes than the excitons and that polaritons can show faster excited state dynamics when they have access to additional energy transfer channels.

2D perovskite↗

Characterization of Aerosol Episodes in the Greater Mediterranean Sea Area from Satellite Observations (2000-2007)

An algorithm able to identify and characterize episodes of different aerosol types above sea surfaces of the greater Mediterranean basin (GMB), including the Black Sea and the Atlantic Ocean off the coasts of Iberia and northwest Africa, is presented in this study. Based on this algorithm, five types of intense (strong and extreme) aerosol episodes in the GMB are identified and characterized using daily aerosol optical properties from satellite measurements, namely MODIS-Terra, Earth Probe (EP)-TOMS and OMIAura. These aerosol episodes are: (i) biomass-burning/urban-industrial (BU), (ii) desert dust (DD), (iii) dust/sea-salt (DSS), (iv) mixed (MX) and (v) undetermined (UN). The identification and characterization is made with our algorithm using a variety of aerosol properties, namely aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (a), fine fraction (FF), effective radius (reff) and Aerosol Index (AI). During the study period (2000e2007), the most frequent aerosol episodes are DD, observed primarily in the western and central Mediterranean Sea, and off the northern African coasts, 7 times/year for strong episodes and 4 times/year for extreme ones, on average. The DD episodes yield 40% of all types of strong aerosol episodes in the study region, while they account for 71.5% of all extreme episodes. The frequency of occurrence of strong episodes exhibits specific geographical patterns, for example the BU are mostly observed along the coasts of southern Europe and off the Atlantic coasts of Portugal, the MX episodes off the Spanish Mediterranean coast and over the Adriatic and northern Aegean Sea, while the DSS ones over the western and central Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, the extreme episodes for all but DD aerosol display more patchy spatial patterns. The strong episodes exhibit AOD at 550 nm as high as 1.6 in the southernmost parts of central and eastern Mediterranean Sea, which rise up to 5 for the extreme, mainly DD and DSS, episodes. Although more than 90% of all aerosol episodes last 1 day, there are few cases, mainly extreme DD episodes, which last up to 4 days. Independently of their type, the Mediterranean aerosol episodes occur more frequently in spring (strong and extreme episodes) and summer (strong episodes) and most rarely during winter. A significant year by year variability of Mediterranean aerosol episodes has been identified, more in terms of their frequency than intensity. An analysis of 5-day back trajectories for the most extreme episodes provides confidence on the obtained results of the algorithm, based on the revealed origin and track of air masses causing the episodes. The 25 and 6% of all strong and extreme episodes, respectively, are MX, thus highlighting the co-existence of different aerosol types in the greater Mediterranean. The intensity of both MX and DSS episodes exhibits similar patterns to those of DD strong ones, indicating that desert dust is a determinant factor for the intensity of aerosol episodes in the Mediterranean, including DSS and MX episodes.

Atmospheric Chemistry↗

Reduction of gaseous pollutant emissions from gas turbine combustors using hydrogen-enriched jet fuel

Recent progress in an evaluation of the applicability of the hydrogen enrichment concept to achieve ultralow gaseous pollutant emission from gas turbine combustion systems is described. The target emission indexes for the program are 1.0 for oxides of nitrogen and carbon monoxide, and 0.5 for unburned hydrocarbons. The basic concept utilizes premixed molecular hydrogen, conventional jet fuel, and air to depress the lean flammability limit of the mixed fuel. This is shown to permit very lean combustion with its low NOx production while simulataneously providing an increased flame stability margin with which to maintain low CO and HC emission. Experimental emission characteristics and selected analytical results are presented for a cylindrical research combustor designed for operation with inlet-air state conditions typical for a 30:1 compression ratio, high bypass ratio, turbofan commercial engine.

Clayton, R. M.↗

Upper atmosphere dynamics

The spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone is useful in diagnosis of some features of the large scale atmospheric circulation, and the ozone may also interact with the atmospheric general circulation. Local maxima in the column ozone distribution are often associated with disturbances in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, which may herald cyclone development in the troposphere. One research objective is to explore these issues by means of time series analysis of a zonal index of total column ozone, to suggest the existence or nonexistence of relationships between column ozone and dynamical processes which are known to occur on various time scales. Another objective is to investigate the correlation between the ozone mixing ratio on the 350 K isentropic surface and the column integrated ozone, and to investigate the use of an easily derived parameter as a proxy for ozone mixing ratio, which is conserved in the stratosphere for time scales shorter than the photochemical time scale. The source of data for these studies is the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data set.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

Combining Spectroscopic Ellipsometry with Transmission Spectroscopy to Derive Accurate Optical Constants for Organic Materials

A method for deriving the optical constants of organic powdered materials in the mid-infrared spectral range is introduced using variable angle spectroscopic ellipsometry and transmission spectroscopy. The approach uses pressed pellets of the powder and is applied to organic solids, which have both strong and weak infrared absorption features. Many powders have significant voids and do not press into smooth, homogenous pellets. To account for pellet non-idealities and to accurately measure both n and k, three different forms of pellets were pressed and measured: A pure analyte pellet, a mixed analyte/KBr pellet with a large analyte percentage, and a KBr transmission pellet with only a small analyte percentage. Using all three pellets in a multi-sample analysis involving both ellipsometric and transmission data, the complex refractive index (n/k) values can be derived for many organic compounds. This method is illustrated to calculate the optical constants for anhydrous lactose from 6000-400 cm-1. The transmission measurements improve the spectral fitting of weak absorption features, and the multi-sample analysis enables a better determination of the significant void space that is present in the pure pellet, leading to lower values for both n and k if not properly accounted for in the multi-oscillator model used to fit the ellipsometric data.

Optical constants, refractive index, extinction co↗

Bounds on the minimum number of data transfers in WFTA and FFT programs

Bounds on the minimum number of data transfers (i.e., loads, stores, copies) required by WFTA and FFT programs are presented. The analysis is applicable to those general-purpose computers with M general processor registers, where M is equal to or greater than 4 but much less than the transform length. It is shown that the 1008-point WFTA requires about 21 percent more data transfers than the 1024-point radix-4 FFT; on the other hand, the 120-point WFTA has about the same number of data transfers as the mixed radix (4 x 4 x 4 x 2) version of the 128-point FFT and 22 percent fewer than the radix-2 version. Finally, comparisons of the 'total' program execution times (multiplications, additions, and data transfers, but not indexing or permutations) are presented.

Nawab, H.↗

The 2140 cm-1 (4.673 microns) solid CO band: the case for interstellar O2 and N2 and the photochemistry of nonpolar interstellar ice analogs

The infrared spectra of CO frozen in nonpolar ices containing N2, CO2, O2, and H2O and the UV photochemistry of these interstellar/precometary ice analogs are reported. The spectra are used to test the hypothesis that the narrow 2140 cm-1 (4.673 microns) interstellar absorption feature attributed to solid CO might be produced by CO frozen in ices containing nonpolar species such as N2 and O2. It is shown that mixed molecular ices containing CO, N2, O2, and CO2 provide a good match to the interstellar band at all temperatures between 12 and 30 K both before and after photolysis. The optical constants (real and imaginary parts of the index of refraction) in the region of the solid CO feature are reported for several of these ices. The N2 and O2 absorptions at 2328 cm-1 (4.296 microns) and 1549 cm-1 (6.456 microns), respectively, are also shown. The best matches between the narrow interstellar band and the feature in the laboratory spectra of nonpolar ices are for samples which contain comparable amounts of N2, O2, CO2, and CO. Co-adding the CO band from an N2:O2:CO2:CO = 1:5:1/2:1 ice with that of an H2O:CO = 20:1 ice provides an excellent fit across the entire interstellar CO feature. The four-component, nonpolar ice accounts for the narrow 2140 cm-1 portion of the feature which is associated with quiescent regions of dense molecular clouds. Using this mixture, and applying the most recent cosmic abundance values, we derive that between 15% and 70% of the available interstellar N is in the form of frozen N2 along several lines of sight toward background stars. This is reduced to a range of 1%-30% for embedded objects with lines of sight more dominated by warmer grains. The cosmic abundance of O tied up in frozen O2 lies in the 10%-45% range toward background sources, and it is between 1% and 20% toward embedded objects. The amount of oxygen tied up in CO and CO2 frozen in nonpolar ices can be as much as 2%-10% toward background sources and on the order of 0.2%-5% for embedded objects. Similarly 3%-13% of the carbon is tied up in CO and CO2 frozen in nonpolar ices toward field stars, and 0.2%-6% toward embedded objects. These numbers imply that most of the N is in N2, and a significant fraction of the available O is in O2 in the most quiescent regions of dense clouds. Ultraviolet photolysis of these ices produces a variety of photoproducts including CO2, N2O, O3, CO3, HCO, H2CO, and possibly NO and NO2. XCN is not produced in these experiments, placing important constraints on the origin of the enigmatic interstellar XCN feature. N2O and CO3 have not been previously considered as interstellar ice components.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Enhanced surface urban heat islands due to divergent urban-rural greening trends

Abstract Satellite observations show that the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) has been increasing over the last two decades. This is often accompanied by an increased urban-rural contrast of vegetation greenness. However, the contribution of uneven vegetation trends in urban and rural areas to the trend of SUHII is unclear, due to the confounding effects of climate change and changes in man-made infrastructures and anthropogenic heat sources. Here we use a data-model fusion approach to quantify such contributions during the peak growing season. We show that the LAI dif (the urban-rural difference of leaf area index) is increasing ( P < 0.05) in 189 of the selected 228 global megacities. The increasing trend of LAI dif from 2000 to 2019 accounts for about one quarter of the trend in satellite-derived SUHII, and the impact is particularly evident in places with rapid urbanization and rural cropland intensification. The marginal sensitivity of SUHII to LAI dif is the strongest in hot-humid megacities surrounded by croplands and in hot-dry megacities surrounded by mixed woody and herbaceous vegetation. Our study highlights the role of long-term vegetation trends in modulating the trends of urban-rural temperature differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The 2140 cm(exp -1) (4.673 Microns) Solid CO Band: The Case for Interstellar O2 and N2 and the Photochemistry of Non-Polar Interstellar Ice Analogs

The infrared spectra of CO frozen in non-polar ices containing N2, CO2, O2, and H2O, and the ultraviolet photochemistry of these interstellar/precometary ice analogs are reported. The spectra are used to test the hypothesis that the narrow 2140/cm (4.673 micrometer) interstellar absorption feature attributed to solid CO might be produced by CO frozen in ices containing non-polar species such as N2 and O2. It is shown that mixed molecular ices containing CO, N2, O2, and CO2 provide a very good match to the interstellar band at all temperatures between 12 and 30 K both before and after photolysis. The optical constants (real and imaginary parts of the index of refraction) in the region of the solid CO feature are reported for several of these ices.

Elsila, Jamie↗

Southern Ocean Heat Storage, Reemergence, and Winter Sea Ice Decline Induced by Summertime Winds

The observational record shows a substantial 40-yr upward trend in summertime westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, as characterized by the southern annular mode (SAM) index. Enhanced summertime westerly winds have been linked to cold summertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Previous studies have suggested that Ekman transport or upwelling is responsible for this seasonal cooling. Here, another process is presented in which enhanced vertical mixing, driven by summertime wind anomalies, moves heat downward, cooling the sea surface and simultaneously warming the subsurface waters. The anomalously cold SSTs draw heat from the atmosphere into the ocean, leading to increased depth-integrated ocean heat content. The subsurface heat is returned to the surface mixed layer during the autumn and winter as the mixed layer deepens, leading to anomalously warm SSTs and potentially reducing sea ice cover. Observational analyses and numerical experiments support our proposed mechanism, showing that enhanced vertical mixing produces subsurface warming and cools the surface mixed layer. Nevertheless, the dominant driver of surface cooling remains uncertain; the relative importance of advective and mixing contributions to the surface cooling is model dependent. Modeling results suggest that sea ice volume is more sensitive to summertime winds than sea ice extent, implying that enhanced summertime westerly winds may lead to thinner sea ice in the following winter, if not lesser ice extent. Thus, strong summertime winds could precondition the sea ice cover for a rapid retreat in the following melt season.

Southern Ocean↗