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Towards an MHD theory for the standoff distance of Earth's bow shock

An MHD theory is developed for the stand-off distance a(sub s) of the bow shock and the thickness delta(sub ms) of the magnetosheath, using the empirical Spreiter et al. relation delta(sub ms) = kX and the MHD density ratio X across the shock. The theory includes as special cases the well-known gasdynamic theory and associated phenomenological MHD-like models for delta(sub ms) and a(sub s). In general, however, MHD effects produce major differences from previous models, especially at low Alfven (M(sub A)) and sonic (M(sub S)) Mach numbers. The magnetic field orientation, M(sub A), M(sub S) and the ratio of specific heats gamma are all important variables of the theory. Three principal conclusions are reached. First, the gasdynamic and phenomenological models miss important dependances on field orientation and M(sub S) and generally provide poor approximations to the MHD results. Second, changes in field orientation and M(sub S) are predicted to cause factor of approximately 4 changes in delta(sub ms) at low M(sub A). Third, using Spreiter et al.'s value for k in the MHD theory leads to maximum a(sub s) values at low M(sub A) and nominal M(sub S) that are much smaller than observations and MHD simulations require. Resolving this problem requires either the modified Spreiter-like relation and larger k found in recent MHD simulations and/or breakdown in the Spreiter-like relation at very low M(sub A).

Cairns, Iver H.

Spatially Complete Surface Albedo Data Sets: Value-Added Products Derived from Terra MODIS Land Products

Spectral land surface albedo is an important parameter for describing the radiative properties of the Earth. Accordingly it reflects the consequences of natural and human interactions, such as anthropogenic, meteorological, and phenological effects, on global and local climatological trends. Consequently, albedos are integral parts in a variety of research areas, such as general circulation models (GCMs), energy balance studies, modeling of land use and land use change, and biophysical, oceanographic, and meteorological studies. The availability of global albedo data over a large range of spectral channels and at high spatial resolution has dramatically improved with the launch of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft in December 1999. However, lack of spatial and temporal coverage due to cloud and snow effects can preclude utilization of official products in production and research studies. We report on a technique used to fill incomplete MOD43 albedo data sets with the intention of providing complete value-added maps. The technique is influenced by the phenological concept that within a certain area, a pixel s ecosystem class should exhibit similar growth cycle events over the same time period. The shape of an area s phenological temporal curve can be imposed upon existing pixel-level data to fill missing temporal points. The methodology will be reviewed by showcasing 2001 global and regional results of complete albedo and NDVl data sets.

Moody, E. G.

Analysis of Fluorinated Polyimides Flown on the Materials International Space Station Experiment

This Technical Memorandum documents the results from the Materials on International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) series involving fluorinated polyimide films analyzed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. These films may be used in thermal control, sunshield, solar sail, solar concentrator, and other lightweight polymer film applications. Results include postflight structural integrity, visual observations, determination of atomic oxygen erosion yield, and optical property changes as compared to preflight values.

Finckenor, M. M.

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by, almost 50% and 35%, respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to (1) missing data, (2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, (3) lack of filtering, and (4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C, or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Christy, John R.

Reducing Noise in the MSU Daily Lower-Tropospheric Global Temperature Dataset

The daily global-mean values of the lower-tropospheric temperature determined from microwave emissions measured by satellites are examined in terms of their signal, noise, and signal-to-noise ratio. Daily and 30-day average noise estimates are reduced by almost 50% and 35%. respectively, by analyzing and adjusting (if necessary) for errors due to 1) missing data, 2) residual harmonics of the annual cycle unique to particular satellites, 3) lack of filtering, and 4) spurious trends. After adjustments, the decadal trend of the lower-tropospheric global temperature from January 1979 through February 1994 becomes -0.058 C. or about 0.03 C per decade cooler than previously calculated.

Christy, John R.

Equations for Scoring Rules When Data Are Missing

A document presents equations for scoring rules in a diagnostic and/or prognostic artificial-intelligence software system of the rule-based inference-engine type. The equations define a set of metrics that characterize the evaluation of a rule when data required for the antecedence clause(s) of the rule are missing. The metrics include a primary measure denoted the rule completeness metric (RCM) plus a number of subsidiary measures that contribute to the RCM. The RCM is derived from an analysis of a rule with respect to its truth and a measure of the completeness of its input data. The derivation is such that the truth value of an antecedent is independent of the measure of its completeness. The RCM can be used to compare the degree of completeness of two or more rules with respect to a given set of data. Hence, the RCM can be used as a guide to choosing among rules during the rule-selection phase of operation of the artificial-intelligence system..

James, Mark

Radiative Forcing in the ACCMIP Historical and Future Climate Simulations

A primary goal of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model IntercomparisonProject (ACCMIP) was to characterize the short-lived drivers of preindustrial to 2100climate change in the current generation of climate models. Here we evaluate historicaland 5 future radiative forcing in the 10 ACCMIP models that included aerosols, 8 of whichalso participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5).The models generally reproduce present-day climatological total aerosol opticaldepth (AOD) relatively well. components to this total, however, and most appear to underestimate AOD over East10 Asia. The models generally capture 1980-2000 AOD trends fairly well, though theyunderpredict AOD increases over the YellowEastern Sea. They appear to strongly underestimate absorbing AOD, especially in East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, SouthAmerica and Southern Hemisphere Africa.We examined both the conventional direct radiative forcing at the tropopause (RF) and the forcing including rapid adjustments (adjusted forcing AF, including direct andindirect effects). The models calculated all aerosol all-sky 1850 to 2000 global meanannual average RF ranges from 0.06 to 0.49 W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.26 W m(sup -2) and a median of 0.27 W m(sup -2. Adjusting for missing aerosol components in some modelsbrings the range to 0.12 to 0.62W m(sup -2), with a mean of 0.39W m(sup -2). Screen20ing the models based on their ability to capture spatial patterns and magnitudes ofAOD and AOD trends yields a quality-controlled mean of 0.42W m(sup -2) and range of0.33 to 0.50 W m(sup -2) (accounting for missing components). The CMIP5 subset of ACCMIPmodels spans 0.06 to 0.49W m(sup -2), suggesting some CMIP5 simulations likelyhave too little aerosol RF. A substantial, but not well quantified, contribution to histori25cal aerosol RF may come from climate feedbacks (35 to 58). The mean aerosol AF during this period is 1.12W m(sup -2) (median value 1.16W m(sup -2), range 0.72 to1.44W m(sup -2), indicating that adjustments to aerosols, which include cloud, water vaporand temperature, lead to stronger forcing than the aerosol direct RF.

Climate Models

Modular Battery Charge Controller

A new approach to masterless, distributed, digital-charge control for batteries requiring charge control has been developed and implemented. This approach is required in battery chemistries that need cell-level charge control for safety and is characterized by the use of one controller per cell, resulting in redundant sensors for critical components, such as voltage, temperature, and current. The charge controllers in a given battery interact in a masterless fashion for the purpose of cell balancing, charge control, and state-of-charge estimation. This makes the battery system invariably fault-tolerant. The solution to the single-fault failure, due to the use of a single charge controller (CC), was solved by implementing one CC per cell and linking them via an isolated communication bus [e.g., controller area network (CAN)] in a masterless fashion so that the failure of one or more CCs will not impact the remaining functional CCs. Each micro-controller-based CC digitizes the cell voltage (V(sub cell)), two cell temperatures, and the voltage across the switch (V); the latter variable is used in conjunction with V(sub cell) to estimate the bypass current for a given bypass resistor. Furthermore, CC1 digitizes the battery current (I1) and battery voltage (V(sub batt) and CC5 digitizes a second battery current (I2). As a result, redundant readings are taken for temperature, battery current, and battery voltage through the summation of the individual cell voltages given that each CC knows the voltage of the other cells. For the purpose of cell balancing, each CC periodically and independently transmits its cell voltage and stores the received cell voltage of the other cells in an array. The position in the array depends on the identifier (ID) of the transmitting CC. After eight cell voltage receptions, the array is checked to see if one or more cells did not transmit. If one or more transmissions are missing, the missing cell(s) is (are) eliminated from cell-balancing calculations. The cell-balancing algorithm is based on the error between the cell s voltage and the other cells and is categorized into four zones of operation. The algorithm is executed every second and, if cell balancing is activated, the error variable is set to a negative low value. The largest error between the cell and the other cells is found and the zone of operation determined. If the error is zero or negative, then the cell is at the lowest voltage and no balancing action is needed. If the error is less than a predetermined negative value, a Cell Bad Flag is set. If the error is positive, then cell balancing is needed, but a hysteretic zone is added to prevent the bypass circuit from triggering repeatedly near zero error. This approach keeps the cells within a predetermined voltage range.

Button, Robert

Towards an MHD Theory for the Standoff Distance of Earth's Bow Shock

A magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory is developed for the standoff distance a(s) of the bow shock and the thickness Delta(ms) of the magnetosheath, using the empirical Spreiter et al. relation Delta(ms) = kX and the MHD density ratio X across the shock. The theory includes as special cases the well-known gasdynamic theory and associated phenomenological MHD-like models for Delta(ms) and As. In general, however, MHD effects produce major differences from previous models, especially at low Alfev (Ma) and Sonic (Ms) Mach numbers. The magnetic field orientation Ma, Ms and the ratio of specific heats gamma are all important variables of the theory. In contrast, the fast mode Mach number need play no direct role. Three principle conclusions are reached. First the gasdynamic and phenomenological models miss important dependences of field orientation and Ms generally provide poor approximations to the MHD results. Second, changes in field orientation and Ms are predicted to cause factor of approximately 4 changes in Delta(ms) at low Ma. These effects should be important when predicting the shock's location or calculating gramma from observations. Third, using Spreiter et al.'s value for k in the MHD theory leads to maxima a(s) values at low Ma and nominal Ms that are much smaller than observations and MHD simulations require. Resolving this problem requires either the modified Spreiter-like relation and larger k found in recent MHD simulations and/or a breakdown in the Spreiter-like relation at very low Ma.

Carins, Iver H.

The search for brown dwarfs with infrared surveys

Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS), ISO, Space Infrared Telescope Facility (SIRTF), WIRE, Deep Near-Infrared Survey (DENIS), and Two Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) observations were used to compute the maximum number of observable brown dwarfs for various infrared surveys by combining the maximum possible Oort limit (0.1 'missing' solar mass p/cu c) with all possible brown dwarf mass and age distributions. This approach shows what limits will be placed on the contribution of brown dwarfs to any possible 'missing mass' if no brown dwarfs are observed. I consider brown dwarfs with masses of 0.01-0.08 solar mass and ages of 10(exp 9)-10(exp 10) years. The full range of predicted numbers of brown dwarfs above approx. 6 times the noise of each of the below surveys is: IRAS Point Source Catalog, 0.02-6; IRAS Faint Source Catalog absolute value of b greater than 10 deg, 0.05-16; ISO (2 week 12 micrometer survey), 0.15-80; SIRTF (2 week 12 micrometer survey), 2.50-1600; WIRE (4 month 12 micrometer survey), 21.80-6000; DENIS(half sky) absolute value of b greater than 10 deg, 0.00-2000; and 2MASS(full sky) absolute value of b greater than 10 deg, 0.00-8800. A failure to find brown dwarfs in the IRAS FSC would just barely rule out about half of the mass-age range for Oort limit total masses. A failure to find brown dwarfs in 2MASS/DENIS would rule out roughly the same mass-age range, but would set a limit of 0.1-0.01 times the Oort mass in that mass-age region. No limits would be set for the other half of the mass-age range since both IRAS and 2MASS/DENIS have insufficient sensitivity for brown dwarfs with T less than 750 K. A failure to find brown dwarfs with ISO would rule out almost all of the mass-age range for Oort limit total masses, but would not set a significantly lower limit to the brown dwarf mass limit. A failure to find brown dwarfs with SIRTF or WIRE would rule out the entire mass-age range for Oort limit total masses and set an upper limit of 0.1-0.001 times the Oort mass. To date, about 18% of the IRAS FSC has been searched down to 6 sigma, and no brown dwarfs have been found. This sets a 95% upper limit of 3 in 18% of the sky, or 13 in the entire FSC for absolute value b greater than 10 deg. To begin to set useful limits from 2MASS or DENIS, approximately 400 square degrees needs to be analyzed. To date, only a few square degrees of results from the 2MASS prototype camera have been examined, with no brown dwarfs found so far.

Chester, T. J.

On the Effects of Cloud Water Content on Passive Microwave Snowfall Retrievals

The Bayesian passive microwave retrievals of snowfall often rely on mathematical matching of the observed vectors of brightness temperature with an a priori database of precipitation profiles and their corresponding brightness temperatures. Mathematical proximity does not necessarily lead to consistent retrievals due to limited information content of passive microwave observations. This paper defines imposter (genuine) vectors of brightness temperature as those that are mathematically close but physically inconsistent (consistent) and characterizes them through the Silhouette Coefficient (SC) analysis. The Neyman–Pearson (NP) hypothesis testing is used to separate the imposter and genuine brightness temperatures based on their associated values of cloud ice (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP), given by coincidences of CloudSat Profiling Radar (CPR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The study determines thresholds for IWP and LWP that allow optimal identification of imposter brightness temperatures of non-snowing and snowing clouds, which can mislead the passive microwave retrieval algorithms to falsely detect or miss the snowfall events. It is demonstrated that emission signal of supercooled liquid water in snowing clouds can lead to improved passive microwave retrieval of snowfall and conditioning the retrievals to the cloud IWP and LWP can result in marginal correction of the snowfall detection probability; however, reduce the probability of false alarm by 6%–8% over sea ice and open oceans.

Snowfall

Upstream surface roughness and terrain are strong drivers of contrast in tornado potential between North and South America

Central North America is the global hotspot for tornadoes, fueled by elevated terrain of the Rockies to the west and a source of warm, moist air from equatorward oceans. This conventional wisdom argues that central South America, with the Andes to the west and Amazon basin to the north, should have a “tornado alley” at least as active as central North America. Central South America has frequent severe thunderstorms yet relatively few tornadoes. Here, we show that conventional wisdom is missing an important ingredient specific to tornadoes: a smooth, flat ocean-like upstream surface. Using global climate model experiments, we show that central South American tornado potential substantially increases if its equatorward land surface is smoothed and flattened to be ocean-like. Similarly, we show that central North American tornado potential substantially decreases if its equatorward ocean surface is roughened to values comparable to forested land. A rough upstream surface suppresses the formation of tornadic environments principally by weakening the poleward low-level winds, characterized by a weakened low-level jet east of the mountain range. Results are shown to be robust for any midlatitude landmass using idealized experiments with a simplified continent and mountain range. Our findings indicate that large-scale upstream surface roughness is likely a first-order driver of the strong contrast in tornado potential between North and South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Vertex evoked potentials in a rating-scale detection task: Relation to signal probability

Vertex evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing in an auditory detection task with rating scale responses. Three values of a priori probability of signal presentation were tested. The amplitudes of the N1 and P3 components of the vertex potential associated with correct detections of the signal were found to be systematically related to the strictness of the response criterion and independent of variations in a priori signal probability. No similar evoked potential components were found associated with signal absent judgements (misses and correct rejections) regardless of the confidence level of the judgement or signal probability. These results strongly support the contention that the form of the vertex evoked response is closely correlated with the subject's psychophysical decision regarding the presence or absence of a threshold level signal.

Squires, K. C.

An experimental summary of plasma arc exposures of space shuttle high-temperature reusable surface insulation tile array with a single missing tile (conducted at the Ames Research Center)

A space shuttle high temperature reusable surface insulation (HRSI) tile array with a single missing or lost tile was exposed to a hot gas simulated reentry environment to investigate the heating conditions in and around the vicinity of the missing HRSI tile. Heat flux and pressure data for the lost tile condition were obtained by the use of a water cooled lost tile calibration model. The maximum aluminum substrate temperature obtained during the simulated reentry was 128 C (263 F). The lost tile calibration data indicated a maximum heat flux in the lost tile cavity region of 63 percent of the upstream reference value. This test was conducted at the Ames Research Center in the 20 MW semielliptical thermal protection system (TPS) pilot plasma arc test facility.

Galanter, S. A.

Remote sensing estimates of cirrus particle size for tropical and midlatitude cirrus: Hexagonal crystals and ice spheres

A large discrepancy exists in current estimates of a mean cirrus particle size appropriate for calculations of the effects of these ice clouds on solar and thermal infrared radiative fluxes. For spheres with large size parameter (x = (2 pi r / lambda) is greater than 30, where r is particle radius), and moderate absorption (n(sup i) x less than 1, where n(sup i) is imaginary index of refraction for ice), the optimal effective particle radius is given by: r(sub e) = integral of r(exp 3)n(r)dr / integral of r(exp 2)n(r)dr. For the remote sensing of cirrus particle size at wavelengths of 0.83, 1.65, and 2.21 mu m, a 50 mu m ice sphere would have a size parameter of about 200, and values of n(sup i) x of 0, 0.045, and 0.06, satisfying the above conditions. However, while r(sub e) is a well-defined parameter for spheres, this cross-section area-weighted particle radius can only be extended to non-spherical particles by defining some equivalent sphere, typically an equivalent volume or equivalent cross-section area sphere. Using equivalent volume spheres, values of r(sub e) obtained over Lake Michigan on October 28, 1986, during FIRE phase I varied from 200 mu m (King Air 2D Imaging probes) to 60 mu m (Landsat reflectances at 0.83, 1.65, and 2.2 mu m), to 25 mu m (HIS spectrometer thermal emission between 8 and 12 mu m). Three major uncertainties were identified in this comparison: small ice particles missed by the 2D-C aircraft probes, uncertain ice refractive index, and uncertainties in the single scatter albedos and scattering phase functions used in the radiative calculations. Since the first FIRE cirrus results, advances have been made in all three areas. The present paper reports on improvements in the radiative modeling of ice particles at 0.83, 1.65, and 2.21 mu m wavelengths appropriate for comparisons to Landsat Thematic Mapper data. The paper also includes new results for Landsat observations of ice clouds in the eastern and western tropical Pacific.

Wielicki, Bruce A.

Integration of ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences for reconstructing the evolutionary history of Galapagos giant tortoises

Genomic data from contemporary and historical samples often need to be coupled for evolutionary reconstructions of multitaxon complexes. However, the genetic data recovered from historical samples may result only in ultra-low coverage whole-genome sequences (ulcWGS; <0.15× depth), leading to inaccurate evolutionary inferences given a preponderance of missing data. Using the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation as a study system (Chelonoidis spp., composed of 13 extant and four extinct lineages), we assembled a novel methodological pipeline that removes potential noise introduced by the missing data and enhances the evolutionary signal from ulcWGS samples. We leveraged existing tools for phylogenomic placement (EPA-ng), population genomic structure (smartsnp) and admixture (Admixfrog, NGSadmix) to demonstrate that the evolutionary history of samples can be uncovered with sequencing depths as low as 0.008–0.139×. Importantly, these approaches do not use genotype imputation of the ulcWGS samples, which would require extensive reference datasets. Our application to two cases of extinct lineages of Galapagos giant tortoises, with and without references from the same lineage, demonstrates the general value of the approach. We confirm where the extinct lineages from San Cristóbal and Santa Fe islands fit into the Galapagos giant tortoise radiation, and that these lineages were evolutionarily distinct entities.

ancient DNA

Interstellar detection of the intersystem line Si II lambda 2335 toward zeta Ophiuchi

We report on the detection of the weak intersystem transistion of Si II lambda 2335 A in the sight line toward zeta Oph using the Ech-B mode (3.5 km/s resolution) of the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph. The high-quality spectrum is characterized by an empirically measured signal-to-noise of 450, in excellent agreement with that expected from photon-statistics. The measured equivalent width of the Si II line is W(sub lambda) = 0.48 +/- 0.12 mA. Using the new experimental f-value of Calamai, Smith, and Bergeson, we find a Si II column density of 2.34 (+/- 0.58) x 10(exp 15) atoms/sq cm and (Si/H)(sub zeta Oph) = 1.78 (+/- 0.44) x 10(exp -6) for the principal absorbing component(s) at v(sub sun) approx. = -15 km/s. Analysis of the Si II lambda 1808 absorption over the same velocity range using the new experimental f-value of Bergeson & Lawler yields a column density (corrected for saturation) that is consistent within the weak line errors and confirms the relative accuracies of these new f-values. Furthermore, these results indicate that accurate abundances can now be derived for Si II, particularly from the weak Si II lambda 2335 A since it is free of saturation effects. For the zeta Oph v(sub sun) approx. = -15 km/s component(s), we find that greater than 95% of the available cosmic abundance (i.e. the 1989 meteoritic abundances of Anders & Grevesse) of Mg, Fe, and Si is 'missing' from the gas phase and is presumably locked up in the dust. These elements are present in the dust grains in ratios of Fe/Si approximately equals 0.9 and Mg/Si approximately equals 1.1, consistent with the ratio of their cosmic abundances. These ratios are in sharp contrast to more diffuse clouds like those seen toward the high-latitude halo star HD 93521 where in the dust Fe/Si approximately equals 1.8 and Mg/Si approximately equals 2.1.

Cardelli, Jason A.

Scheduling For Urban Air Mobility Using Safe Learning

This work considers the scheduling problem for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles travelling between origin-destination pairs with both hard and soft trip deadlines. Each route is described by a discrete probability distribution over trip completion times (or delay) and over interarrival times of requests (or demand) for the route along with a fixed hard or soft deadline. Soft deadlines carry a cost that is incurred when the deadline is missed. An online, safe scheduler is developed that ensures that hard deadlines are never missed and that average cost of missing soft deadlines is minimized. The system is modelled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and safe model based learning is used to find the probabilistic distributions over route delays and demand. Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) Earliest Deadline First (EDF) is used to safely explore the learned models in an online fashion and develop a near-optimal non-preemptive scheduling policy. These results are compared with Value Iteration (VI) and MCTS (Random) scheduling solutions.

Urban Air Mobility