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At least 181 records · Page 10

Investigation of the role of thermal boundary layer processes in initiating convection under the NASA SPACE Field Program

The current NWS ground based network is not sufficient to capture the dynamic or thermodynamic structure leading to the initiation and organization of air mass moist convective events. Under this investigation we intend to use boundary layer mesoscale models (McNider and Pielke, 1981) to examine the dynamic triggering of convection due to topography and surface thermal contrasts. VAS and MAN's estimates of moisture will be coupled with the dynamic solution to provide an estimate of the total convective potential. Visible GOES images will be used to specify incoming insolation which may lead to surface thermal contrasts and JR skin temperatures will be used to estimate surface moisture (via the surface thermal inertia) (Weizel and Chang, 1988) which can also induce surface thermal contrasts. We will use the SPACE-COHMEX data base to evaluate the ability of the joint mesoscale model satellite products to show skill in predicting the development of air mass convection. We will develop images of model vertical velocity and satellite thermodynamic measures to derive images of predicted convective potential. We will then after suitable geographic registration carry out a pixel by pixel correlation between the model/satellite convective potential and the 'truth' which are the visible images. During the first half of the first year of this investigation we have concentrated on two aspects of the project. The first has been in generating vertical velocity fields from the model for COHMEX case days. We have taken June 19 as the first case and have run the mesoscale model at several different grid resolutions. We are currently developing the composite model/satellite convective image. The second aspect has been the attempted calibration of the surface energy budget to provide the proper horizontal thermal contrasts for convective initiation. We have made extensive progress on this aspect using the FIFE data as a test data set. The calibration technique looks very promising.

Mcnider, Richard T.↗

Modeling the Stochastic Response of Fiber Reinforced Composites with Varied Representative Volume Element Sizes

Fiber reinforced composites are desirable in applications where low weight and high strength are needed, but are susceptible to variability and flaws during manufacturing, making failure predictions difficult. These flaws may occur at the microscale where mechanical properties vary locally due to regions of fiber clusters and matrix pockets. In this study, a multiscale approach was taken to model 3-point bend, 4-point bend, and tensile experiments of a unidirectional composite from only having microstructure scans of these samples and constituent properties from literature. These scans were sampled with different sized windows, and statistically equivalent microstructures were generated, then simulated for stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness using a reduced order micromechanical model and NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). Mesoscale models were created with equivalent element sizes to microstructures and properties sampled from microscale simulation results. Results showed how microscale size affects certain mechanical properties. Also shown is how well mesoscale models agree to experiments when using stochastic element properties and varying element size.

microstructure↗

Atmospheric Turbulence Estimates from a Pulsed Lidar

Estimates of the eddy dissipation rate (EDR) were obtained from measurements made by a coherent pulsed lidar and compared with estimates from mesoscale model simulations and measurements from an in situ sonic anemometer at the Denver International Airport and with EDR estimates from the last observation time of the trailing vortex pair. The estimates of EDR from the lidar were obtained using two different methodologies. The two methodologies show consistent estimates of the vertical profiles. Comparison of EDR derived from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) mesoscale model with the in situ lidar estimates show good agreement during the daytime convective boundary layer, but the WRF simulations tend to overestimate EDR during the nighttime. The EDR estimates from a sonic anemometer located at 7.3 meters above ground level are approximately one order of magnitude greater than both the WRF and lidar estimates - which are from greater heights - during the daytime convective boundary layer and substantially greater during the nighttime stable boundary layer. The consistency of the EDR estimates from different methods suggests a reasonable ability to predict the temporal evolution of a spatially averaged vertical profile of EDR in an airport terminal area using a mesoscale model during the daytime convective boundary layer. In the stable nighttime boundary layer, there may be added value to EDR estimates provided by in situ lidar measurements.

Pruis, Matthew J.↗

Mesoscale simulations of pressure-shear loading of granular tungsten carbide

Numerical simulations of pressure-shear loading of a granular material are performed using the shock physics code CTH. A simple mesoscale model for the granular material is used that consists of a randomly packed arrangement of solid circular or spherical grains of uniform size separated by vacuum. The grain material is described by a simple shock equation of state, elastic perfectly plastic strength model, and fracture model with baseline parameters for WC taken from previous mesoscale modeling work. Simulations using the baseline material parameters are performed at the same initial conditions of pressure-shear experiments on dry WC powders. Except for some localized flow regions appearing in simulations with an approximate treatment of sliding interfaces among grains, the samples respond elastically during shear, which is in contrast to experimental observations. By extending the simulations to higher shear wave amplitudes, macroscopic shear failure of the simulated samples is observed with the shear strength increasing with increasing stress confinement. The shear strength is also found to be strongly dependent on the grain interface treatment and on the fracture stress of the grains, though the variation in shear strength due to fracture stress decreases with increasing stress confinement. At partial compactions, the transverse velocity histories show strain-hardening behavior followed by formation of a shear interface that extends through the transverse dimensions of the sample. Near full compaction, no strain hardening is observed and, instead, the sample transitions sharply from an elastic response to formation of an internal shear interface. Agreement with experiment is shown to worsen with increasing confinement stress with simulations overpredicting the shear strengths measured in experiment. The source of the disagreement can be ultimately attributed to the Eulerian nature of the simulations, which do not treat contact and fracture realistically.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Three-Dimensional High Fidelity Progressive Failure Damage Modeling of NCF Composites

Performance prediction of off-axis laminates is of significant interest in designing composite structures for energy absorption. Phenomenological models available in most of the commercial programs, where the fiber and resin properties are smeared, are very efficient for large scale structural analysis, but lack the ability to model the complex nonlinear behavior of the resin and fail to capture the complex load transfer mechanisms between the fiber and the resin matrix. On the other hand, high fidelity mesoscale models, where the fiber tows and matrix regions are explicitly modeled, have the ability to account for the complex behavior in each of the constituents of the composite. However, creating a finite element model of a larger scale composite component could be very time consuming and computationally very expensive. In the present study, a three-dimensional mesoscale model of non-crimp composite laminates was developed for various laminate schemes. The resin material was modeled as an elastic-plastic material with nonlinear hardening. The fiber tows were modeled with an orthotropic material model with brittle failure. In parallel, new stress based failure criteria combined with several damage evolution laws for matrix stresses were proposed for a phenomenological model. The results from both the mesoscale and phenomenological models were compared with the experiments for a variety of off-axis laminates.

Aitharaju, Venkat↗

Martian Atmospheric Circulation and Climate

This proposal is focused on using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data and numerical models to address issues of atmospheric mixing of volatiles and aerosols, on defining the mean state of the atmosphere and the degree of variability, and on the processes which exchange volatiles and aerosols between the surface and atmosphere. Specifically, five areas of research were defined: In the first, we proposed to use TES data to examine the general circulation of the atmosphere both through retrieval of the residual circulation, and by comparison of the TES data with a Mars General Circulation Model (GCM). In the second, we proposed to look at synoptic and mesoscale atmospheric mixing processes (baroclinic storms, etc.) by combining TES and MOC Wide Angle data, and by employing a Mars Mesoscale Model. In the third section, we proposed to examine the record of the Martian atmospheric state provided by MGS, Viking, and Mariner 9 - as well as published ground-based observations - in order to assess the nature of interannual variability. In the forth section, we proposed to compare numerical models of the Martian water and dust cycles with TES and MOC data, specifically looking at water ice cloud distributions, dust distribution, etc. In the fifth section, we propose to use the mesoscale model to study the Mars Pathfinder Lander data. This work has now concluded its final of three years.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗

Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

Pielke, Roger↗

The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting entities, including a number of National Weather Service offices. SPoRT transitions real-time NASA products and capabilities to its partners to address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is applying convection-allowing numerical models to predict mesoscale convective weather. In order to address this specific forecast challenge, SPoRT produces real-time mesoscale model forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that includes unique NASA products and capabilities. Currently, the SPoRT configuration of the WRF model (SPoRT-WRF) incorporates the 4-km Land Information System (LIS) land surface data, 1-km SPoRT sea surface temperature analysis and 1-km Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) greenness vegetation fraction (GVF) analysis, and retrieved thermodynamic profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The LIS, SST, and GVF data are all integrated into the SPoRT-WRF through adjustments to the initial and boundary conditions, and the AIRS data are assimilated into a 9-hour SPoRT WRF forecast each day at 0900 UTC. This study dissects the overall impact of the NASA datasets and the individual surface and atmospheric component datasets on daily mesoscale forecasts. A case study covering the super tornado outbreak across the Ce ntral and Southeastern United States during 25-27 April 2011 is examined. Three different forecasts are analyzed including the SPoRT-WRF (NASA surface and atmospheric data), the SPoRT WRF without AIRS (NASA surface data only), and the operational National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF (control with no NASA data). The forecasts are compared qualitatively by examining simulated versus observed radar reflectivity. Differences between the simulated reflectivity are further investigated using convective parameters along with model soundings to determine the impacts of the various NASA datasets. Additionally, quantitative evaluation of select meteorological parameters is performed using the Meteorological Evaluation Tools model verification package to compare forecasts to in situ surface and upper air observations.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Joint sessions on modeling of boundary layer and radiative transfer processes

During the session on modeling of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes the following topics were addressed: current PBL parameterizations used in mesoscale models; critical issues in improving PBL parameterizations for mesoscale models; suggestions for future modeling efforts; and suggestions for observing system strategies.

Moeng, Chin-Hoh↗

Constraining the Sulfur Dioxide Degassing Flux from Turrialba Volcano, Costa Rica Using Unmanned Aerial System Measurements

Observed sulfur dioxide (SO2)mixing ratios onboard unmanned aerial systems (UAS) duringMarch 11-13, 2013 are used to constrain the three-day averaged SO2 degassing flux fromTurrialba volcanowithin a Bayesian inverse modeling framework. A mesoscale model coupled with Lagrangian stochastic particle backward trajectories is used to quantify the source-receptor relationships at very high spatial resolutions (i.e., b1 km). The model shows better performance in reproducing the near-surface meteorological properties and observed SO2 variations when using a first-order closure non-local planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. The optimized SO2 degassing fluxes vary from 0.59 +/- 0.37 to 0.83 +/- 0.33 kt d−1 depending on the PBL scheme used. These fluxes are in good agreement with ground-based gas flux measurements, and correspond to corrective scale factors of 8-12 to the posteruptive SO2 degassing rate in the AeroCom emission inventory. The maximum a posteriori solution for the SO2 flux is highly sensitive to the specification of prior and observational errors, and relatively insensitive to the SO2 loss term and temporal averaging of observations. Our results indicate relatively low degassing activity but sustained sulfur emissions from Turrialba volcano to the troposphere during March 2013. This study demonstrates the utility of low-cost small UAS platforms for volcanic gas composition and flux analysis.

Xi, Xin↗

The Role of Local Inhomogeneities on Dendrite Growth in LLZO-Based Solid Electrolytes

The majority of the ceramic solid electrolytes (LLZO, LATP) demonstrate polycrystalline grain/grain-boundary (G/GB) microstructure. Higher lithium (Li) concentration and lower mechanical stiffness result in current focusing at the GBs. Growth of Li dendrites through local inhomogeneities and subsequent short circuit of the cell is a major concern. Recent studies have revealed that bulk Li metal is a viscoplastic material that has low (~0.3 MPa) and high (~1.0 MPa) yield strength during deformation at smaller and larger rates of strain, respectively. It has been argued that during deposition at smaller current densities, due to its lower yield strength, Li metal should demonstrate plastic flow against stiff ceramic electrolytes, and Li dendrites will be prevented from penetrating through solid electrolytes. In this manuscript, a multiscale modeling framework has been developed for predicting properties of GBs and the bulk of ceramic electrolytes using atomistic calculations for input to mesoscale models. Using the parameters obtained from the atomistic simulations, the mesoscale model reveals that, given enough time, even at low charge rates, lithium dendrites can grow through the GBs of LLZO. The present multiscale model results also provide information regarding the dendrite growth velocity through LLZO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Short-term numerical precipitation forecasts initialized using a diagnosed divergent-wind component

Use of the diagnosed-divergence initialization procedure of Tarbell et al. (1979) to predict the hourly rainfall data used in short-term precipitation forecasts is examined experimentally. Data simulations using a mesoscale model and balanced and internally consistent data were conducted; the physical and numerical characteristics of the mesoscale model are described. The real experiment used rainfall data from April 25-26, 1979 to investigate the capabilities of the initialization procedure to improve short-term precipitation forecasts. The derivation of the diagnosed-divergent wind using a mesoscale omega equation which includes the effects of latent heating is discussed. The diagnosed-divergence initialization forecasts are compared to nondivergence or observed-divergence initializations. It is observed that the diagnosed-divergence initializations provide better rainfall data than the other initializations.

Salmon, Ellen M.↗

Parameterization of sub-grid scale convection

The following topics are discussed: an overview of the cumulus parameterization problem; interactions between explicit and implicit processes in mesoscale models; effects of model grid size on the cumulus parameterization problem; parameterizing convective effects on momentum fields in mesoscale models; differences between slantwise and vertical cumulus parameterization; experiments with different closure hypotheses; and coupling cumulus parameterizations to boundary layer, stable cloud, and radiation schemes.

Frank, William↗

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

NASA prefers to land the space shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). When weather conditions violate Flight Rules at KSC, NASA will usually divert the shuttle landing to Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB) in Southern California. But forecasting surface winds at EAFB is a challenge for the Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters due to the complex terrain that surrounds EAFB, One particular phenomena identified by SMG is that makes it difficult to forecast the EAFB surface winds is called "wind cycling". This occurs when wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway leading to a challenging deorbit bum forecast for shuttle landings. The large-scale numerical weather prediction models cannot properly resolve the wind field due to their coarse horizontal resolutions, so a properly tuned high-resolution mesoscale model is needed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model meets this requirement. The AMU assessed the different WRF model options to determine which configuration best predicted surface wind speed and direction at EAFB, To do so, the AMU compared the WRF model performance using two hot start initializations with the Advanced Research WRF and Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model dynamical cores and compared model performance while varying the physics options.

Watson, Leela R.↗

ACC Subduction by Mesoscales

The mesoscale contribution to Subduction in the Southern Ocean was recently studied by Salle'e and Rintoul (2011, SR) using the following mesoscale model. The adiabatic A-regime was modeled with the GM stream function, the diabatic D-regime was modeled with tapering functions,the D-A interface was taken to be at the mixed layer depth and the mesoscale diffusivity was either a constant or given by a 2D model. Since the resulting subductions were an order of magnitude smaller than the data of ±200 m/yr (Mazloff et al., 2010), SR showed that if instead of the above model-dependent mesoscale diffusivities, they employed the ones by Salle'e et al. (2008) from surface drifter observations, the subductions compared significantly better with the data. On those grounds, SR suggested a tenfold increase of the diffusivity. In this work, we suggest that since the mesoscale diffusivity is but one component of a muc large mesoscale parameterization, one should first assess the latter's overall performance followed by the assessment of the predicted ACC subduction. We employ the mesoscale model formulated31 in Canuto et al. (2018; 2019, that includes recent theoretical and observational advances and that was assessed against a variety of data including the output of 17 other OGCMs. The ACC diffusivities compare well with drifter data by Salle'e et al. (2008) and the ACC subduction rates are in agreement with the data.

V M Canuto↗

The Impact of TRMM Data on Numerical Forecast of Mesoscale Systems

The impact of surface rainfall data derived from the TRMM Microwave Image (TMI) on the numerical forecast of mesoscale systems is evaluated. A series of numerical experiments are performed that assimilate TMI rainfall data into the Penn State University/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. Experiments are conducted incorporating TMI rainfall data into the mesoscale model to improve hurricane initialization. It is found that assimilation of rainfall data into the model is beneficial in producing a more realistic eye and rain bands and also helps to improve the intensity forecast for the hurricane. Further 4DVAR experiments are performed on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Detailed results and related issues will be presented during the conference.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗

Microphysical modeling of cirrus. 1: Comparison with 1986 FIRE IFO measurements

We have used a one-dimensional model of cirrus formation to study the development of cirrus clouds during the 1986 First ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE) intensive field observations (IFO). The cirrus model includes microphysical, dynamical, and radiative processes. Sulfate aerosols, solution drops, ice crystals, and water vapor are all treated as interactive elements in the model. Ice crystal size distributions are fully resolved based on calculations of homogeneous freezing nucleation, growth by water vapor deposition, evaporation, coagulation, and vertical transport. We have focused on the cirrus observed on November 1, 1986. Vertical wind speed for the one-dimensional simulation is taken from a mesoscale model simulation for the appropriate time period. The mesoscale model simulation suggested that strong upward motions over Wyoming and subsequent horizontal transport of upper level moisture were responsible for the cirrus observed over Wisconsin on this date. We assumed that our one-dimensional model could be used to represent a vertical column moving from Wyoming to Wisconsin over a period of several hours. Ice crystal nucleation occurs in our model in the 8 to 10-km region as a result of the strong updrafts (and cooling) early in the simulation. Growth, coagulation, and sedimentation of these ice crystals result in a broad cloud region (5-10 km thick) with an optical depth of 1-2 after a few hours, in agreement with the FIRE measurements. Comparison with aircraft microphysical measurements made over Wisconsin indicates that the simulation generated reasonable ice water content, but the predicted ice number densities are too low, especially for radii less than about 50 microns. Sensitivity tests suggest that better agreement between simulated and observed microphysical properties is achieved if the nucleation rate is higher or stronger vertical mixing (perhaps associated with multidimensional motions) is present.

Jensen, Eric J.↗