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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Sparse Direct Effects in Multivariate Regression With the Spike-and-Slab LASSO

The multivariate regression interpretation of the Gaussian chain graph model simultaneously parametrizes (i) the direct effects of p predictors on q outcomes and (ii) the residual partial covariances between pairs of outcomes. We introduce a new method for fitting sparse versions of these models with spike-and-slab LASSO (SSL) priors. We develop an Expectation Conditional Maximization algorithm to obtain sparse estimates of the p × q matrix of direct effects and the q × q residual precision matrix. Our algorithm iteratively solves a sequence of penalized maximum likelihood problems with self-adaptive penalties that gradually filter out negligible regression coefficients and partial covariances. Because it adaptively penalizes individual model parameters, our method is seen to outperform fixed-penalty competitors on simulated data. We establish the posterior contraction rate for our model, buttressing our method’s excellent empirical performance with strong theoretical guarantees. Using our method, we estimated the direct effects of diet and residence type on the composition of the gut microbiome of elderly adults.

EM algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sempervirens: A Fast Reconstruction Algorithm for Noisy and Incomplete Binary Matrix Representations of Trees

Applications such as reconstructing cell lineage trees (represented as phylogenetic trees) from single-cell sequencing data require reconstructing a {0,1}-matrix that has many errors and missing entries. We introduce Sempervirens, a very fast matrix reconstruction algorithm for noisy and incomplete matrix representations of phylogenetic trees. Sempervirens uses an iterative maximum-likelihood approach to determine the topology tree represented by the corrupted data. We show that Sempervirens is at least three orders of magnitude faster than other methods on thousand by thousand matrices, with the speed gap widening with larger matrices. We also show that Sempervirens matches state-of-the-art methods in reconstruction accuracy. The speed of Sempervirens enables it to be tractably applied to reconstructing much larger matrices than those that other methods can reconstruct. In addition to experimental results, we justify the algorithm with a mathematical treatment of its subprocedures.

algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2021

X-ray computed tomography using partially coherent Fresnel diffraction with application to an optical fiber

A reconstruction algorithm for partially coherent x-ray computed tomography (XCT) including Fresnel diffraction is developed and applied to an optical fiber. The algorithm is applicable to a high-resolution tube-based laboratory-scale x-ray tomography instrument. The computing time is only a few times longer than the projective counterpart. The algorithm is used to reconstruct, with projections and diffraction, a tilt series acquired at the micrometer scale of a graded-index optical fiber using maximum likelihood and a Bayesian method based on the work of Bouman and Sauer. The inclusion of Fresnel diffraction removes some reconstruction artifacts and use of a Bayesian prior probability distribution removes others, resulting in a substantially more accurate reconstruction.

Levine, Zachary H. (ORCID:000000029928276X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-assisted generative adversarial network for X-ray tomography

X-ray tomography is capable of imaging the interior of objects in three dimensions non-invasively, with applications in biomedical imaging, materials science, electronic inspection, and other fields. The reconstruction process can be an ill-conditioned inverse problem, requiring regularization to obtain satisfactory results. Recently, deep learning has been adopted for tomographic reconstruction. Unlike iterative algorithms which require a distribution that is known a priori , deep reconstruction networks can learn a prior distribution through sampling the training distributions. In this work, we develop a Physics-assisted Generative Adversarial Network (PGAN), a two-step algorithm for tomographic reconstruction. In contrast to previous efforts, our PGAN utilizes maximum-likelihood estimates derived from the measurements to regularize the reconstruction with both known physics and the learned prior. Compared with methods with less physics assisting in training, PGAN can reduce the photon requirement with limited projection angles to achieve a given error rate. The advantages of using a physics-assisted learned prior in X-ray tomography may further enable low-photon nanoscale imaging.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phylogenetic diversity, trichothecene potential, and pathogenicity within Fusarium sambucinum species complex

The Fusarium sambucinum species complex (FSAMSC) is one of the most taxonomically challenging groups of fusaria, comprising prominent mycotoxigenic plant pathogens and other species with various lifestyles. Among toxins produced by members of the FSAMSC, trichothecenes pose the most significant threat to public health. Herein a global collection of 171 strains, originating from diverse hosts or substrates, were selected to represent FSAMSC diversity. This strain collection was used to assess their species diversity, evaluate their potential to produce trichothecenes, and cause disease on wheat. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian analyses of a combined 3-gene dataset used to infer evolutionary relationships revealed that the 171 strains originally received as 48 species represent 74 genealogically exclusive phylogenetically distinct species distributed among six strongly supported clades: Brachygibbosum, Graminearum, Longipes, Novel, Sambucinum, and Sporotrichioides. Most of the strains produced trichothecenes in vitro but varied in type, indicating that the six clades correspond to type A, type B, or both types of trichothecene-producing lineages. Furthermore, five strains representing two putative novel species within the Sambucinum Clade produced two newly discovered type A trichothecenes, 15-keto NX-2 and 15-keto NX-3. Strains of the two putatively novel species together with members of the Graminearum Clade were aggressive toward wheat when tested for pathogenicity on heads of the susceptible cultivar Apogee. In planta, the Graminearum Clade strains produced nivalenol or deoxynivalenol and the aggressive Sambucinum Clade strains synthesized NX-3 and 15-keto NX-3. Other strains within the Brachygibbosum, Longipes, Novel, Sambucinum, and Sporotrichioides Clades were nonpathogenic or could infect the inoculated floret without spreading within the head. Moreover, most of these strains did not produce any toxin in the inoculated spikelets. These data highlight aggressiveness toward wheat appears to be influenced by the type of toxin produced and that it is not limited to members of the Graminearum Clade.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Origin and evolution of HIV-1 subtype A6

Background: HIV outbreaks in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries were characterized by repeated transmission of the HIV variant AFSU, which is now classified as a distinct subtype A sub-subtype called A6. The current study used phylogenetic/phylodynamic and signature mutation analyses to determine likely evolutionary relationship between subtype A6 and other subtype A sub-subtypes. Methods: For this study, an initial Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analysis was performed using a total of 553 full-length, publicly available, reverse transcriptase sequences, from A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, and A6 sub-subtypes of subtype A. For phylogenetic clustering and signature mutation analysis, a total of 5961 and 3959 pol and env sequences, respectively, were used. Results: Phylogenetic and signature mutation analysis showed that HIV-1 sub-subtype A6 likely originated from sub-subtype A1 of African origin. A6 and A1 pol and env genes shared several signature mutations that indicate genetic similarity between the two subtypes. For A6, tMRCA dated to 1975, 15 years later than that of A1. Conclusion: The current study provides insights into the evolution and diversification of A6 in the backdrop of FSU countries and indicates that A6 in FSU countries evolved from A1 of African origin and is getting bridged outside the FSU region.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Indirect Search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles in the Sun Using Upward-going Muons in NOvA

I present the first Dark Matter search results using the full data set collected with the upward-going muon trigger in NOvA. Weakly Interactive Massive Particles (WIMPs) are a theoretical non-baryonic form of Dark Matter. The nature of Dark Matter is one of the most exciting open questions in modern physics. Though its existence can be inferred by astrophysical evidence, its properties are not yet understood. If we assume that Dark Matter particles can produce Standard Model particles through their interactions, an indirect search can help shed light on this mystery.The NOvA collaboration has built a 14 kton, fine-grained, low-Z, total absorption tracking calorimeter at an off-axis angle to the NuMI neutrino beam. Even though the detector is optimized to observe electron neutrino appearance from a muon neutrino beam, it has a unique potential for more exotic searches given its excellent granularity and energy resolution and relatively low-energy neutrino thresholds. In fact, with an efficient upward-going muon trigger and sufficient background suppression offline, NOvA is capable of a competitive indirect Dark Matter search for low-mass WIMPs.The idea of the upward-going muon trigger is first to select high-quality muon tracks, then use the timing information of all of the hits of each track to estimate directionality. In this way, the background flux is suppressed by more than a factor of 10^5 at trigger level to a rate of approximately 1 Hz. To further optimize this search, we use only upward-going muons that point to the Sun, so our search occurs at night when the Sun is on the other side of the Earth. This strategy also allows us to use the time when the Sun is above the horizon as a control region to estimate the background. Ultimately, implementation of a cut based and maximum likelihood analysis provides a powerful tool for rejecting background and selecting a sample of neutrino-induced upward-going muons. The overall background rejection power achieved by the analysis is substantial and impressive. Starting with approximately 150,000 events per second, we reduced it to 40 events per year. Since no statistically significant excess was found, a 90\% C.L. upper limit on the expected muon flux of upward-going muons has been set using the upper limit on the number of events given the number of observed events in the signal region. Lastly, by assuming the theory behind the upward-going muon flux, a limit on the WIMP-nucleon spin-dependent cross-section in the Sun was estimated. Although the limits on the spin-dependent cross-section do not appear to be competitive with previous indirect Dark Matter searches, the upward-going muon flux limits are promising. The upward-going muon flux limits could extend these results to a broader class of models that are not specific to the dark matter theory but produce upward-going muons, leading to competitive results.

Principato, Cristiana↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Motion Planning Algorithms for Safety and Quantum Computing Efficiency

Motion planning remains a fundamental problem in robotics. Sampling-based algorithms use randomization to allow efficient solutions to this complex problem. As mobile robots and autonomous vehicles become more prevalent in everyday life, motion planning must be applied to increasingly challenging scenarios. Safety has become a paramount concern in motion planning for ensuring robotic applications enrich human lives. To date, many motion planning techniques to increase safety in the face of uncertain and dynamic environments have been developed. This dissertation first addresses distributional safety of Rapidly-Exploring Random Trees (RRT) through our algorithm W-Safe RRT. To acknowledge distributional uncertainty and poor modeling, W-Safe RRT uses the Wasserstein metric to provide a probabilistic bound on the distributional distance between a robot and obstacles. Human-interpretable environmental agent classification allows online safety margin adaptation. We propose and analyze an integrating region method for online classification that increases actor labeling accuracy based on behavioral feature values when compared to state of the art methods. The method performs class assignments based on local maximum likelihood in a created behavioral feature-space, allowing a notion of classification uncertainty. Model-based methods with safety guarantees can quickly become computationally in tractable, especially with multiple agents, higher dimensions, and plentiful unknowns. Sampling based algorithms have been parallelized for computation with multi-core computers and GPUs. We consider the use of quantum algorithms and computers for sampling-based motion planning for the first time. Quantum computing performs operations on superpositions of states and can solve certain problems much more efficiently than classical computers, but introduces previously unseen challenges. With Quantum-RRT, we recast the motion planning problem into a database-search structure and use Quantum Amplitude Amplification to find reachable states in the database with a quadratic performance increase over classical methods. We address two error sources with this method: quantum measurement and quantum oracle errors. We then extend this method to Parallel Quantum-RRT, which uses a manager-worker architecture with multiple parallel quantum workers to increase database search efficiency. We compare algorithm architectures and characterize probabilities of multiple workers finding solutions. Lastly, we test in simulation the quantum algorithms against classical versions in a wide variety of scenarios, concluding that a similar parallelization improvement is to be found in the quantum case as was found in the parallelization of classical RRT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

MultiPEM Toolbox: User Manual [Rev. 2]

This document explains use of the Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (Multi PEM) Toolbox, a collection of R scripts for estimating the unknown device parameters of a new event with uncertainty quantification. The methodology and application used for illustration in this user manual are fully documented in a Los Alamos National Laboratory technical report hereafter designated “WPA” for reference. Additional details on the application are found in a recent journal article. Two assessment types are available: rapid and complete. Rapid assessments are conducted in two stages, as described in Section 2. In the first stage, calibration data are used to estimate forward and error model parameters (WPA, §5.1) and (if relevant) errors-in-variables yield values for calibration sources (WPA, §3, Equation (3)). In the second stage, new event data are used to estimate the unknown new event device parameters (WPA, §5.2) with uncertainty quantification. Two options for treating the inferred first stage parameters in second stage Bayesian analysis are available: fixing them at their maximum likelihood estimate (default), or multiple imputation. Multiple imputation involves utilizing several posterior samples (imputations) of the first stage parameters as fixed values in the second stage posterior sampling of the new event device parameters. Second stage sampling is conducted across imputations in parallel to improve computational efficiency. This method produces improved uncertainty quantification of the new event device parameters compared with the default treatment of the first stage parameters, at the expense of additional computation. Complete assessments are conducted in a single stage, as described in Section 3. Calibration and (if relevant) new event data are used simultaneously to estimate all forward model, error model, and (if relevant) new event device parameters with uncertainty quantification on the latter. As the name suggests, rapid assessments generally run substantially faster than complete assessments (even with multiple imputation), because the results of first stage analysis can be stored and incorporated into estimating a relatively low-dimensional space of new event device parameters whenever relevant new event data becomes available. On the other hand, complete assessments must be run on the full set of model and device parameters with calibration and new event data every time the latter becomes available.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tensor Decompositions for Count Data that Leverage Stochastic and Deterministic Optimization

There is growing interest to extend low-rank matrix decompositions to multi-way arrays, or tensors. One fundamental low-rank tensor decomposition is the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD). The challenge of fitting a low-rank, nonnegative CPD model to Poisson-distributed count data is of particular interest. Several popular algorithms use local search methods to approximate the global maximum likelihood estimator from local minima. Simultaneously, a recent trend in theoretical computer science and numerical linear algebra leverages randomization to solve very large, hard problems. The typical approach is to use randomization for a fast approximation and determinism for refinement to yield effective algorithms with theoretical guarantees. Two popular algorithms for Poisson CPD reflect that emergent dichotomy: CP Alternating Poisson Regression is a deterministic algorithm and Generalized Canonical Polyadic decomposition makes use of stochastic algorithms in several variants. This work extends recent work to develop two new methods that leverage randomized and deterministic algorithms for improved accuracy and performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

EW Studies and CP Sensitivity in ZH Production at FCC-ee

Charge-Parity (CP) violation is a necessary condition to explain the relative abundance of matter in the universe in comparison to anti-matter. Nevertheless, known sources of CP-violation are insufficient to explain this disparity. Planned to commence its operations in 2040, the Future Circular Collider (FCC-ee) will collide electrons and positrons at a center of mass energy of 240 GeV, which optimizes the rate of production of a Higgs Boson in association with an on-shell Z boson: a process known as Higgs-strahlung. The associated Z boson is selected from electronic, muonic, and hadronic final states, while the Higgs is not explicitly reconstructed, but rather inferred from the recoiling four-momentum in each event. A binned, maximum-likelihood fit characterizes the relative contributions of CP-odd interactions at the HZZ-vertex while incorporating reconstructed detector effects from a proposed design to be used at FCC-ee.

Pinto, Nicholas [Johns Hopkins U.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Simulator for Neyer Tests of Explosives

Explosives and explosive devices such as detonators are typically tested by applying a range of stimuli such as voltage or mechanical shock, and recording binary “detonated/did not detonate” responses. These are analyzed using maximum likelihood or generalized linear models to provide estimates of quantities such as the all-fire and no-fire points. Given that the true threshold for detonation is unknown a priori , sequential design methods are typically used to optimize the set of test points. One popular method, implemented in commercial software, is Neyer’s algorithm. To support simulation and experimental design, we have developed code in the R programming language to duplicate the functions of the Neyer software. We provide code for the simulator along with a description and examples of usage.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson-response Tensor-on-Tensor Regression and Applications

We introduce Poisson-response tensor-on-tensor regression (PToTR), a novel regression framework designed to handle tensor responses composed element-wise of random Poisson-distributed counts. Tensors, or multi-dimensional arrays, composed of counts are common data in fields such as inter national relations, social networks, epidemiology, and medical imaging, where events occur across multiple dimensions like time, location, and dyads. PToTR accommodates such tensor responses alongside tensor covariates, providing a versatile tool for multi dimensional data analysis. We propose algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation under a canonical polyadic (CP) structure on the regression coefficient tensor that satisfy the positivity of Poisson parameters and then provide an initial theoretical error analysis for PToTR estimators. We also demonstrate the utility of PToTR through three concrete applications: longitudinal data analysis of the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System database, positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction, and change-point detection of communication patterns in longitudinal dyadic data. These applications highlight the versatility of PToTR in addressing complex, structured count data across various domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Data Association for Orbital-Element Estimation Using Multistage Expectation–Maximization

Tracking space objects is important for managing space traffic and predicting collisions, but is difficult in part due to data association and orbit model uncertainty. Expectation–maximization (EM) is a commonly used tracking method that has not been widely considered for tracking space objects. The technique consists of iteratively computing data association probabilities with a set of current element estimates, and updating estimates of the elements by solving a nonlinear weighted least-squares regression problem where the weights are the data association probabilities. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of EM for probabilistic data association and orbital-element estimation by applying the technique to simulated data from two angles-only tracking scenarios. In both scenarios, EM provides correct data associations and accurate maximum likelihood estimates of orbital elements. One scenario considers tracking a single object in clutter and quantifies the improvement of the orbital-element estimates and data associations as the detection probability increases. However, standard application of EM requires knowing the number of objects or may fail when a large number of objects are present. To address these issues, this paper employs a multistage version of EM that is applicable when there are a large and possibly unknown number of objects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the uncertainty of long-period return values of extreme daily precipitation

Methods for calculating return values of extreme precipitation and their uncertainty are compared using daily precipitation rates over the Western U.S. and Southwestern Canada from a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The roles of return-value estimation procedures and sample size in uncertainty are evaluated for various return periods. We compare two different generalized extreme value (GEV) parameter estimation techniques, namely L-moments and maximum likelihood (MLE), as well as empirical techniques. Even for very large datasets, confidence intervals calculated using GEV techniques are narrower than those calculated using empirical methods. Furthermore, the more efficient L-moments parameter estimation techniques result in narrower confidence intervals than MLE parameter estimation techniques at small sample sizes, but similar best estimates. It should be noted that we do not claim that either parameter fitting technique is better calibrated than the other to estimate long period return values. While a non-stationary MLE methodology is readily available to estimate GEV parameters, it is not for the L-moments method. Comparison of uncertainty quantification methods are found to yield significantly different estimates for small sample sizes but converge to similar results as sample size increases. Finally, practical recommendations about the length and size of climate model ensemble simulations and the choice of statistical methods to robustly estimate long period return values of extreme daily precipitation statistics and quantify their uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗