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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Theory Manual for the Fuel Cycle Analysis Code REBUS

REBUS is a system of programs designed for the fuel cycle analysis of fast reactors and accelerator-driven systems. The first version of REBUS was developed in 1970 for calculating the equilibrium operating conditions of liquid metal fast breeder reactors. During the past five decades, various extensions and refinements have been made in the simulation of material motions in fuel cycle facilities and the solution of the neutronics and isotopic transmutation equations that govern the reactor behavior. The latest version complies with the standard code practices and interface dataset specifications of the committee on computer code coordination (CCCC). This report provides a detailed description of the physical processes and their mathematical models and solution methods of the current production version of REBUS. The models of the facilities and physical processes involved in fast reactor fuel cycle are first discussed. Then the mathematical formulation of these physical models is presented, followed by detailed discussions of solution methods of the resulting set of equations. Finally the output edit quantities are discussed along with their definitions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

hIPPYlib-MUQ: A Bayesian Inference Software Framework for Integration of Data with Complex Predictive Models under Uncertainty

Bayesian inference provides a systematic framework for integration of data with mathematical models to quantify the uncertainty in the solution of the inverse problem. However, the solution of Bayesian inverse problems governed by complex forward models described by partial differential equations (PDEs) remains prohibitive with black-box Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We present hIPPYlib-MUQ, an extensible and scalable software framework that contains implementations of state-of-the art algorithms aimed to overcome the challenges of high-dimensional, PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. These algorithms accelerate MCMC sampling by exploiting the geometry and intrinsic low-dimensionality of parameter space via derivative information and low rank approximation. The software integrates two complementary open-source software packages, hIPPYlib and MUQ. hIPPYlib solves PDE-constrained inverse problems using automatically-generated adjoint-based derivatives, but it lacks full Bayesian capabilities. MUQ provides a spectrum of powerful Bayesian inversion models and algorithms, but expects forward models to come equipped with gradients and Hessians to permit large-scale solution. By combining these two complementary libraries, we created a robust, scalable, and efficient software framework that realizes the benefits of each and allows us to tackle complex large-scale Bayesian inverse problems across a broad spectrum of scientific and engineering disciplines. To illustrate the capabilities of hIPPYlib-MUQ, we present a comparison of a number of MCMC methods available in the integrated software on several high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. These include problems characterized by both linear and nonlinear PDEs, various noise models, and different parameter dimensions. The results demonstrate that large (~ 50×) speedups over conventional black box and gradient-based MCMC algorithms can be obtained by exploiting Hessian information (from the log-posterior), underscoring the power of the integrated hIPPYlib-MUQ framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chaotic Dynamics Driven by Particle-Core Interactions

High-intensity beams in modern linacs are frequently encircled by diffuse halos, which drive sustained particle losses and result in gradual degradation of accelerating structures. In large part, the growth of halos is facilitated by internal space-charge forces within the beams, and detailed characterization of this process constitutes an active area of ongoing research. A partial understanding of dynamics that ensue within space-charge dominated beams is presented by the particle-core interaction paradigm – a mathematical model wherein single particle dynamics, subject to the collective potential of the core, are treated as a proxy for the broader behavior of the beam. In this work, we investigate the conditions for the onset of large-scale chaos within the framework of this model, and demonstrate that the propensity towards stochastic evolution is strongly dependent upon the charge distribution of the beam. In particular, we show that while particle motion within a uniformly charged beam is dominantly regular, rapid deterministic chaos readily arises within space-charge dominated Gaussian beams. Importantly, we find that for sufficiently high values of the beam’s space charge and beam pulsation amplitude, enhanced chaotic mixing between the core and the halo can lead to an enhanced radial diffusion of charged particles. We explain our results from analytic grounds by demonstrating that chaotic motion is driven by the intersection of two principal resonances of the system, and derive the relevant overlap conditions. Additionally, our analysis illuminates a close connection between the mathematical formulation of the particle-core interaction model and the Andoyer family of integrable Hamiltonians

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generating Massive Scale-free Networks: Novel Parallel Algorithms using the Preferential Attachment Model

Recently, there has been substantial interest in the study of various random networks as mathematical models of complex systems. As real-life complex systems grow larger, the ability to generate progressively large random networks becomes all the more important. This motivates the need for efficient parallel algorithms for generating such networks. Naïve parallelization of sequential algorithms for generating random networks is inefficient due to inherent dependencies among the edges and the possibility of creating duplicate (parallel) edges. In this article, we present message passing interface-based distributed memory parallel algorithms for generating random scale-free networks using the preferential-attachment model. Our algorithms are experimentally verified to scale very well to a large number of processing elements (PEs), providing near-linear speedups. The algorithms have been exercised with regard to scale and speed to generate scale-free networks with one trillion edges in 6 minutes using 1,000 PEs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical and methodological challenges in hierarchical Bayesian inference for model-form uncertainty

This report describes challenges associated with the hierarchical Bayesian approach to inform model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to a mathematical models’ governing equations to express uncertainty in form of the equations. To inform model-form uncertainties, hierarchical Bayesian inference is often employed. Here, the MFU parameters are distributed parametrically, and the hyperparameters of the parametric distribution are informed through Bayesian inference, with the aim of determining the MFU parameter distribution that best agrees with calibration data. In practice, however, we have found the hierarchical Bayesian approach falls short of this aim. We discuss theoretical and methodological challenges of the approach, and we present several numerical demonstrations of these challenges. To conclude, we suggest promising alternative approaches for future investigation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing quantitative models of soil microbiology, ecology, and biochemistry

Rapid advances in soil biology are increasingly reflected in mathematical models. From molecular to global scales, models contribute to fundamental understanding and prediction of critical soil processes, such as carbon sequestration. Recent models explicitly incorporate microbial control over soil carbon and nutrient cycling, an approach that offers greater biological realism but raises new challenges in model parameterization and stability. Although they have proliferated at community and ecosystem scales, microbial-explicit models have yet to be incorporated into most Earth system models. Applying soil models across scales requires integration with data to support parameterization and validation using approaches such as Bayesian data assimilation. In conclusion, to catalyze future progress, we recommend breaking down barriers between modeling and empirical disciplines while broadening access to the computational infrastructure that supports soil biological modeling.

Xie, Wally↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Time-Dependent Surrogates of Additive-Manufactured Nuclear Fuels Processes

Additive manufacturing (AM) technology is being increasingly adopted in a wide variety of application areas for its ability to rapidly produce, prototype, and customize designs. Recently, a hybrid AM technique was successfully developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to manufacture nuclear fuels [1]. Despite the advantages, this AM technique needs optimization due to defects from a highly complex melting and sintering process. The complex metallurgical phenomena during AM processes are strongly related to parameters such as applied laser power, traveling speed, and scan style, which could lead to differences in density, residual stress, crystallographic texture, and mechanical properties. In addition, stochastic variations in laser energy interaction and associated multiscale/multiphysics phenomena cause variations in microstructure evolution and mechanical properties. Currently, researchers at INL are focusing on developing a comprehensive modeling framework, leveraging INL’s simulation tools MOOSE/MARMOT/BISON/RAVEN [2-4] to describe all steps of this AM process across multiple length scales. Although this advanced framework plays a critical role in enabling enhancements to traditional trial and error approaches for design and optimization of nuclear fuel materials, it remains computationally intense, limiting its use in sensitivity and optimization analysis. In this case, an accurate and inexpensive surrogate becomes an effective tool for providing a tractable approximation of the underlying underline physics. Surrogate models generally not based on the physics of a system are purely mathematical models used to capture the relationships between specific system inputs and outputs. Popular approaches, including neural networks [5], response surfaces [6], and subspace-based reduced order models [7], have been applied to a wide range of disciplines, such as nuclear reactor design, aerospace design and automotive design. In this summary, we employ advanced time-dependent surrogate models such as high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) [8] and physics-informed deep neural network (PINNs) [9] to accelerate the design and optimization of AM process.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating tactical planning, operational planning and scheduling using data-driven feasibility analysis

Supply chain operations and scheduling are well-studied problems in the literature. Although these problems are related, they are often solved sequentially. This uncoordinated approach usually leads to sub-optimal solutions. Here this paper proposes a methodology for integrating scheduling operations into the supply chain network, motivated by the available enterprise data, and feasibility analysis. Existing literature on integrated models for addressing the supply chain is reviewed and classified. Then the mathematical model formulation for each level is discussed, after which the proposed data-driven integrated framework is described. The methodology is tested on two different case studies of varying dimensions. For each case study, the solution solves a multi-objective problem with the overall aim of an optimal solution that is robust towards achieving optimal cost while keeping customer satisfaction in mind.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of a new multispecies tumor growth model coupling 3D phase-fields with a 1D vascular network

In this study, we present and analyze a mathematical model for tumor growth incorporating ECM erosion, interstitial flow, and the effect of vascular flow and nutrient transport. The model is of phase-field or diffused-interface type in which multiple phases of cell species and other constituents are separated by smooth evolving interfaces. The model involves a mesoscale version of Darcy’s law to capture the flow mechanism in the tissue matrix. Modeling flow and transport processes in the vasculature supplying the healthy and cancerous tissue, one-dimensional (1D) equations are considered. Since the models governing the transport and flow processes are defined together with cell species models on a three-dimensional (3D) domain, we obtain a 3D–1D coupled model.

3D–1D coupled blood flow models↗
DOE OSTI2022

Augmented Adam-Gibbs model for glass melt viscosity and configuration entropy as functions of temperature and composition

As the temperature of glass melt increases, its structure approaches the state of a simple liquid while the configuration entropy approaches a maximum value. We describe this gradual change using a power law function of inverse temperature. The Adam-Gibbs model for glass viscosity as a function of temperature and glass composition augmented in this way is greatly simplified when applied to common glass families occupying moderate composition regions, such as float glass or nuclear waste glasses, on which properties can be approximated as linear functions of composition. The parsimonious model thus obtained is preferable for use in optimizing glass formulation and mathematical modeling of glass melting and forming. For multicomponent glasses with N viscosity-affecting components, the augmented Adam-Gibbs model requires 2N + 3 adjustable parameters. The model efficacy is demonstrated by fitting the model to a viscosity-temperature-composition dataset for low-activity nuclear waste glasses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Within-Host Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Case Study in Ferrets

The pre-clinical development of antiviral agents involves experimental trials in animals and ferrets as an animal model for the study of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we used mathematical models and experimental data to characterize the within-host infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in ferrets. We also performed a global sensitivity analysis of model parameters impacting the characteristics of the viral infection. We provide estimates of the viral dynamic parameters in ferrets, such as the infection rate, the virus production rate, the infectious virus proportion, the infected cell death rate, the virus clearance rate, as well as other related characteristics, including the basic reproduction number, pre-peak infectious viral growth rate, post-peak infectious viral decay rate, pre-peak infectious viral doubling time, post-peak infectious virus half-life, and the target cell loss in the respiratory tract. These parameters and indices are not significantly different between animals infected with viral strains isolated from the environment and isolated from human hosts, indicating a potential for transmission from fomites. While the infection period in ferrets is relatively short, the similarity observed between our results and previous results in humans supports that ferrets can be an appropriate animal model for SARS-CoV-2 dynamics-related studies, and our estimates provide helpful information for such studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal well testing pressure prediction by using a hybrid transformer model system: FORGE well use case

Geothermal has huge potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of sustainable energy economy, given its capability to provide consistent baseload power to the electric grid. Injection tests are crucial in geothermal energy system as they naturally help to evaluate reservoir properties, understand fluid flow and even enhance reservoir performance. In this research, we developed a hybrid model system that integrates machine learning (ML) regression, a physics-based mathematical model, and transformer deep learning. Trained and validated using FORGE injection test dataset, this system can forecast the pressure variations both upward and downward over time. The pressure prediction achieved prediction accuracy within 3-6% variance of true pressure values. The system can significantly save time and reduce costs by testing only a few cycles and then using model predictions for further analysis, instead of conducting additional real injection cycle tests. The developed model system also holds promise for designing injection test processes and maintaining well production in geothermal energy. Presented at the IMAGE ‘25 Conference led by Shell.

FORGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Temperature Ceramic-Carbonate Dual-Phase Membrane Reactor for Pre-combustion Carbon Dioxide Capture (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Arizona State University, in collaboration with University of South Carolina, worked on a project aimed at development of a new high temperature, high pressure CO 2 perm-selective membrane reactor for water-gas-shift reaction (WGS) with simulated gasifier syngas to produce a high concentration H 2 stream with CO 2 capture. The membrane reactor is made of a CO 2 semi-permeable ceramic-carbonate dual-phase (CCDP) membrane with high CO 2 perm-selectivity/permeance and thermal/mechanical stability for application in WGS reaction. The objectives of this project were to (1) synthesize the chemically/thermally stable tubular CCDP membranes with CO 2 permeance and selectivity (with respect to H 2 , CO or H 2 O) larger than 6.5×10-7 mol/m2·s·Pa and 500, respectively; (2) establish CCDP membrane reactor setup and study high pressure CO 2 permeation and WGS reaction with CO 2 capture using the setup; and (3) identify conditions for WGS in the CCDP membrane reactor that produce CO 2 and H 2 streams with purity of >99% and >90% respectively at CO conversion >95% and overall carbon capture >90%. The work in this project included both membrane development and membrane reactor process study. The membrane development efforts were focused on investigating a H 2 S resistant and highly oxygen-ionic conducting metal oxide material and membrane for CO 2 separation, fabrication of tubular samaria-doped-ceria/molten-carbonate CCDP membrane with high mechanical strength, and experimental and modeling study of high-pressure CO 2 permeation of the CCDP membranes. Mathematical models were developed to describe WGS in the CCDP membrane reactor without a catalyst or packed with a commercial high temperature WGS catalyst. Experiments on WGS in the CCDP membrane reactor with the commercial WGS catalyst, guided by the model analysis, were performed to identify optimum conditions for achieving the CO conversion, carbon capture, and the purity of the H 2 and CO 2 streams mentioned above. At 30 atm feed pressure, 750°C operation temperature, space velocity of 250 h-1, and with steam sweep, a single-stage CCDP membrane reactor with average CO 2 permeation flux of 0.5 cm3(STP)/min.cm2 can achieve CO 2 conversion of 95% and overall carbon capture of 94%, and produce CO 2 and H 2 streams with dry-based purity of >99% and 92% respectively. The project also included process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) for a CCDP membrane reactor process for WGS reaction with CO 2 capture for a 550 MW coal-fired IGCC power plant, and its comparison with the conventional fixed-bed reactor system for WGS with follow-up CO 2 capture by an amine absorption process. The target performance for the reactor for WGS with CO 2 capture includes CO conversion >95%, hydrogen stream purity >90%, CO 2 stream purity >95%, and total carbon capture >90%. The CCDP membrane developed in this project can achieve the performance target, without subsequent CO 2 capture process at the optimum conditions identified in this project. The outcome of the process design and TEA analysis shows that the membrane reactor for WGS with in-situ CO 2 capture has an operating cost about 40% lower than that for the conventional fixed-bed reactor with a separate amine absorption process for CO 2 capture. However, the capital cost of the membrane reactor process is about twice that of the conventional process because of the higher cost of the CCDP membrane. Modeling analysis shows that a membrane reactor using a CCDP membrane with higher CO 2 permeance (about three times the current value) can deliver the targeted performance for WGS reaction with CO 2 capture at a much higher space velocity and lower membrane surface area to catalyst volume ratio, leading to a smaller catalyst amount and/or membrane area and hence significantly reduced membrane reactor capital costs.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational multiphysics modeling of radioactive aerosol deposition in diverse human respiratory tract geometries

The evaluation of aerosol exposure relies on generic mathematical models that assume uniform particle deposition profiles over the human respiratory tract and do not account for subject-specific characteristics. Here we introduce a hybrid-automated computational workflow that generates personalized particle deposition profiles in 3D reconstructed human airways from computed tomography scans using Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics simulations. This is the first large-scale study to consider realistic airways variability, where 380 lower and 40 upper human respiratory tract 3D geometries are reconstructed and parameterized. The data is clustered into nine groups using random forest regression. Computational fluid and particle dynamics simulations are conducted on these representative geometries using a realistic heavy-breathing respiratory cycle and radioactive iodine-131 as a source term. Monte Carlo radiation transport simulations are performed to obtain detailed energy deposition maps. Our findings emphasize the importance of personalized studies, as minor respiratory tract variations notably influence deposition patterns rather than global parameters of the lower airways, observing more than 30% variance in the mass deposition fraction.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamics and growth rate implications of ribosomes and mRNAs interaction in E. coli

Understanding how cells grow and adapt under various nutrient conditions is pivotal in the study of biological stoichiometry. Recent studies provide empirical evidence that cells use multiple strategies to maintain an optimal protein production rate under different nutrient conditions. Mathematical models can provide a solid theoretical foundation that can explain experimental observations and generate testable hypotheses to further our understanding of the growth process. In this study, we generalize a modeling framework that centers on the translation process and study its asymptotic behaviors to validate algebraic manipulations involving the steady states. Using experimental results on the growth of E. coli under C-, N-, and P-limited environments, we simulate the expected quantitative measurements to show the feasibility of using the model to explain empirical evidence. Our results support the findings that cells employ multiple strategies to maintain a similar protein production rate across different nutrient limitations. Moreover, we find that the previous study underestimates the significance of certain biological rates, such as the binding rate of ribosomes to mRNA and the transition rate between different ribosomal stages. Furthermore, our simulation shows that the strategies used by cells under C- and P-limitations result in a faster overall growth dynamics than under N-limitation. In conclusion, the general modeling framework provides a valuable platform to study cell growth under different nutrient supply conditions, which also allows straightforward extensions to the coupling of transcription, translation, and energetics to deepen our understanding of the growth process.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of Participation Factors Using the Synchrosqueezed Wavelet Transform

This paper proposes a data-driven approach for estimating participation factors for a power system using only simulation results on selected disturbances. The approach is purely response-based and does not need a linearized system model for eigen-analysis, which makes it applicable to systems whose detailed, complete mathematical models are not available. Considering the unavoidable nonlinearity as exhibited in the transient period of a system response, the Synchrosqueezed Wavelet Transform is applied to simulated responses for modal analysis to obtain participation factors. Based on simulations of Kundur's two-area system using both the electromagnetic transient model and phasor model, the participation factors estimated by the proposed approach are compared with two other signal processing tools, the Prony analysis and continuous wavelet transform, and are also benchmarked with conventional model-based participation factors.

participation factor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved biomass feedstock materials handling and feeding engineering data sets, design methods, and modeling/simulation tools

Forest Concepts led a project to develop a set of tools which enable feedstock handing equipment designers to better understand and model the flowability of bulk particulate biomass materials. The work products included improved flowability mathematical models, data sets used to populate the models, and two new laboratory devices – a biomass-scale true cubical triaxial tester and a biomass-scale gas pycnometer. This work was funded in part by the US Department of Energy under contact DE-EE0008254.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗