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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

Restoring Distribution System Under Renewable Uncertainty Using Reinforcement Learning: Preprint

Distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution systems, including renewable generation, micro-turbine, and energy storage, can be used to restore critical loads following extreme events to increase grid resiliency. However, properly coordinating multiple DERs in the system for multi-step restoration process under renewable uncertainty and fuel availability is a complicated sequential optimal control problem. Due to its capability to handle system non-linearity and uncertainty, reinforcement learning (RL) stands out as a potentially powerful candidate in solving complex sequential control problems. Moreover, the offline training of RL provides excellent action readiness during online operation, making it suitable to problems such as load restoration, where in-time, correct and coordinated actions are needed. In this study, a distribution system prioritized load restoration based on a simplified single-bus system is studied: with imperfect renewable generation forecast, the performance of an RL controller is compared with that of a deterministic model predictive control (MPC). Our experiment results show that the RL controller is able to learn from experience, adapt to the imperfect forecast information and provide a more reliable restoration process when compared with the baseline MPC controller.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fuel Property Effects on Stochastic Preignition Events During Engine Load Transitions

Stochastic preignition (SPI) is an abnormal combustion phenomenon that can cause catastrophic engine damage. There have been several proposed mechanisms of SPI, where a uniform source is still not certain, however, SPI tendencies have been shown to be influenced by engine operating conditions, oil composition, engine age, and fuel chemical and physical properties. Laboratory research and testing for SPI propensity is challenging given the stochastic nature of events, as well as the potential for significant degradation of the engine platform and measuring equipment over time. Thus, SPI specific experiments are generally conducted under either sustained or cyclic patterning of steady-state operating conditions to avoid the influence of transient engine boundary conditions on test parameters of interest (e.g. oil additive package, fuel properties, engine speed/load, etc.). In this work a cyclically varying SPI test sequence involves a 5 min engine warmup period at a low engine load of around 4 bar gross indicated mean effective pressure (IMEPg), followed by a transition to high load (~20 bar IMEPg) at a constant 2000 rev/min engine speed for a total of 25 min. This individual test sequence load schedule is then sequentially repeated 10 times to generate significant statistical data for analysis. This work examines the influence of fuel chemical and physical properties on SPI tendency during the unsteady portion of the 10-cycle sequence (the first 5 min of the high load operation in each sequence of the loading cycle) which has been discarded from previous analyses due to the uncertainty in engine operating and thermal boundary conditions. Results from this analysis suggest an increasing trend in the ratio of SPI events during the unsteady test period relative to the steady test period with increasing fuel Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), implying differences in uncontrolled ignition source terms, possibly from, fuel wall interactions and retention during the load transition phase of the test.

Splitter, Derek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000174044047)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR (Hybird-Reinforcement-Learning-Model-Predictive-Control-for-Reserve-Policy-Assisted-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Distribution-Grids)

Hybrid-RL-MPC4CLR was developed as a hybrid controller for active distribution grid critical load restoration, combining deep reinforcement learning (RL) and model predictive control (MPC) aiming at maximizing total restored load following an extreme event. The RL determines a policy for quantifying operating reserve requirements, thereby hedging against uncertainty, while the MPC models grid operations incorporating the RL policy actions (i.e., reserve requirements), renewable (wind and solar) power predictions, and load demand forecasts. The developers formulated the reserve requirement determination problem as a sequential decision-making problem based on the Markov Decision Process (MDP) and design an RL learning environment based on the OpenAI Gym framework and MPC simulation. The RL agent reward and MPC objective function aim to maximize and monotonically increase total restored load and minimize load shedding and renewable power curtailment. The software is developed using various software packages in Python. The MPC's optimal power flow (OPF) model is implemented using the Pyomo package, the RL simulation environment is implemented using the MPC simulation with various scenarios of renewable energy and load demand profiles and power outage beginning times, based on the OpenAI Gym framework. The RL agent training is performed using the RLlib Ray package. The RL algorithm is trained offline using historical forecasts of renewable generation and load demand profiles. Simulation analysis and performance tests are conducted using a modified IEEE 13-bus distribution test feeder containing wind turbine, photovoltaic, microturbine, and battery.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗

DOE OSTI2021

Occupancy-Driven Stochastic Decision Framework for Ranking Commercial Building Loads

For effective integration of building operations into the evolving demand response programs of the power grid, real-time decisions concerning the use of building appliances for grid services must excel on multiple criteria, ranging from the added value to occupants' comfort to the quality of the grid services. In this paper, we present a data-driven stochastic decision-support framework to dynamically rank load control alternatives in a commercial building, addressing the needs of multiple decision criteria (e.g. occupant comfort, grid service quality) under uncertainties in occupancy patterns. We adopt a stochastic multi-criteria decision algorithm recently applied to prioritize residential on/off loads, and extend it to i) consider complex load control decisions (e.g. dimming of lights, changing zone temperature set-points) in a commercial building; and ii) systematically integrate zonal occupancy patterns to better identify short-term (and time-varying) opportunities for grid service participation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed framework for curtailment of air-conditioning, lighting, and plug-loads in a multi-zone commercial office building for a range of design choices. With the help of a prototype system that integrates an interactive \textit{Data Analytics and Visualization} frontend we demonstrate a way for the building operators to monitor and change in real-time the available flexibility in energy consumption and to develop trust in the decision recommendations by interpreting the rationale behind the ranking.

Jain, Milan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Field quality of the 4.5 m-long MQXFA pre-series magnets for the HL-LHC Upgrade as observed during magnet assembly

We report that the U.S. High-Luminosity LHC Accelerator Upgrade Project (HL-LHC AUP) is developing MQXFA magnets, a series of 4.5 m long 150 mm aperture high-field Nb 3 Sn quadrupole magnets for the HL-LHC upgrade at CERN. Five pre-series magnets, MQXFA03 through MQXFA07, have been developed. During the magnet assembly stage, we perform magnetic measurements on the coil-pack sub-assembly and magnets after loading to track the field quality for two purposes. First, it serves as a quality assurance tool to check if the magnetic field quality is on track to meet the acceptance criteria. Magnetic measurements are used to understand if magnetic shims are needed to compensate low-order field errors and to meet the field quality targets. Second, the measurements during the assembly stage can also help understand the field quality, especially the geometric field errors, for Nb 3 Sn accelerator magnets. Here we summarize the measurement results of the pre-series MQXFA magnets, including the magnetic axis and twist angle. The results will provide useful feedback for the series production of Nb 3 Sn magnets and on the optimization of field quality of accelerator magnets based on the wind-and-react Nb 3 Sn technology.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Distributional Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Emergency Frequency Control

Emergency frequency control is one of the most critical approaches to maintain power system stability after major disturbances. With the increasing number of grid-connected renewable energy sources, existing model-based methods of frequency control are facing up with challenges of computational speed and scalability for large-scale systems. In this paper, the emergency frequency control problem is formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and solved through a novel Distributional Deep Reinforcement Learning (DDRL) method, namely the distributional soft actor critic (DSAC) method. Compared with other RL methods that only estimate the mean value, the proposed DSAC model estimates the distribution of value function over returns. This advancement can lead to more insights and knowledge for the agent, with the benefit of a much faster and more stable learning process, and the improved frequency control performance. Here, the simulation results on IEEE 39-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of proposed models, as well as the advantage compared to other state-of-the-art DRL algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of EPA’s finalized power plant greenhouse gas standards

Emissions reductions may be met with relatively small costs.

Bistline, John↗

DOE OSTI2021

CSRI Summer Proceedings 2021

The Computer Science Research Institute (CSRI) brings university faculty and students to Sandia National Laboratories for focused collaborative research on Department of Energy (DOE) computer and computational science problems. The institute provides an opportunity for university researches to learn about problems in computer and computational science at DOE laboratories, and help transfer results of their research to programs at the labs. Some specific CSRI research interest areas are: scalable solvers, optimization, algebraic preconditioners, graph-based, discrete, and combinatorial algorithms, uncertainty estimation, validation and verification methods, mesh generation, dynamic load-balancing, virus and other malicious-code defense, visualization, scalable cluster computers, beyond Moore’s Law computing, exascale computing tools and application design, reduced order and multiscale modeling, parallel input/output, and theoretical computer science. The CSRI Summer Program is organized by CSRI and includes a weekly seminar series and the publication of a summer proceedings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

CSRI Summer Proceedings 2021

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

OC6 Phase III Definition Document

The objective of Phase III of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was to evaluate the accuracy of aerodynamic load predictions by offshore wind modeling tools for a floating offshore wind turbine as it experiences large surge-translational and pitch-rotational motion, as would occur during normal operation. A variety of models were examined in the project, with the goal of performing a three-way validation between engineering-level tools, higher-fidelity tools, and measurement data from two wind tunnel experimental campaigns. This document provides the necessary information to model and simulate the system studied in the OC6 Phase III project. This information is not only useful for project participants, but also future modelers who want to replicate this work for verification and validation purposes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2026

DetSuM: Detector Surrogate Model for LArTPC

In large neutrino experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), estimating detector response uncertainties typically requires simulation samples that consume substantial computing resources and time. To mitigate this challenge, we present DetSuM, an uncertainty-aware surrogate model designed to capture the detector response variations with reduced computing load compared to full simulations. This poster describes the construction and evaluation of DetSuM using simulation and reconstruction datasets in a rare-event search at DUNE. We assess DetSuM's ability to predict key detector-response variations and their associated uncertainties, discuss current limitations, and outline improvements to extend its validity in systematics studies of DUNE physics.

Li, Aobo [UC, San Diego]↗

DOE OSTI2020

The STAT7 Code for Statistical Propagation of Uncertainties In Steady-State Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of Plate-Fueled Reactors

STAT7 was written to automate many of the steady-state thermal hydraulic safety calculations for the MIT research reactor, both for conversion of the reactor from highly enriched uranium fuel to low-enriched uranium fuel and for future fuel re-loads after the conversion. A Monte-Carlo statistical propagation approach is used to treat uncertainties in important parameters in the analysis. These safety calculations are ultimately intended to protect against high fuel plate temperatures due to critical heat flux or departure from nucleate boiling or onset of flow instability; but additional margin is obtained by basing the limiting safety settings on avoiding onset of nucleate boiling. STAT7 can simultaneously analyze all of the axial nodes of all of the fuel plates and all of the coolant channels for one stripe of a fuel element. The stripes run the length of the fuel, from the bottom to the top. Power splits are calculated for each axial node of each plate to determine how much of the power goes out each face of the plate. By running STAT7 multiple times, full core analysis can be performed by analyzing the margin to ONB for each axial node of each stripe of each plate of each element in the core.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

popclass: A Python Package for Classifying Microlensing Events

popclass is a Python package that provides a flexible, probabilistic framework for classifying the lens of a gravitational microlensing event. Gravitational microlensing occurs when a massive foreground object (e.g., a star, white dwarf or black hole) passes in front of and lenses the light from a distant background source. This causes an apparent brightening, and shift in position, of the background source. In most cases, characteristics of the microlensing signal do not contain enough information to definitively identify the lens type. Different lens types lie in different but overlapping regions of the characteristics of the microlensing signal. For example, black holes tend to be more massive than stars and therefore cause microlensing signals that are longer. Current Galactic simulations enable us to predict where different lens types lie in the observational space and can therefore be used to classify events (e.g., Lam et al., 2020). popclass allows the user to match the characteristics of a microlensing signal with a simulation of the Galaxy to calculate lens type probabilities for the event (see Figure 1). Constraints on any microlensing signal properties and any Galactic model can be used. popclass comes with an interface to ArviZ (Kumar et al., 2019) and PyMultiNest (Buchner et al., 2014) for microlensing signal constraints, as well as pre-loaded Galactic models, plotting functionality, and methods to quantify the classification uncertainty. The probabilistic framework for popclass was developed in Perkins et al. (2024), used in Fardeen et al. (2024) and has been applied to classifying events in Kaczmarek et al. (2025).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

MPC4CLR (Model-Predictive-Control-for-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Power-Distribution-Systems) [SWR-22-24]

Model predictive control (MPC) is a system or process control technique for making decisions under uncertainty via rolling look-ahead optimizations at each control step where only the current step decisions are applied, and the rest are discarded. In this work, we developed an MPC for a critical load restoration (CLR) in power distribution systems to recover system service (electricity delivery) following an extreme event-triggered substation outage. The method considers the problem of controlling distributed energy resources (DERs) of the distribution system with the objective of achieving maximum load pick up while satisfying distribution network flow and voltage constraints. A linearized optimal power flow (OPF) model is employed to represent the physics of the network. The problem formulation is augmented with a ramping (up) reserve product for the DERs to ensure improved and upward monotonic load restoration as time evolves. Simulation analysis and performance tests are performed using a modified IEEE 13-bus test feeder integrated with wind, solar, microturbine, and energy storage battery. The software is developed using various software packages in Julia and Python. The MPC model is implemented using the JuMP optimization language in Julia while the data analytics including renewable generation and load demand forecasts, running the MPC simulation and visualizations is performed in Python.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗

DOE OSTI2023

OC6 project Phase III: validation of the aerodynamic loading on a wind turbine rotor undergoing large motion caused by a floating support structure

Abstract. This paper provides a summary of the work done within Phase III of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project, under the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme Task 30. This phase focused on validating the aerodynamic loading on a wind turbine rotor undergoing large motion caused by a floating support structure. Numerical models of the Technical University of Denmark 10 MW reference wind turbine were validated using measurement data from a 1:75 scale test performed during the UNsteady Aerodynamics for FLOating Wind (UNAFLOW) project and a follow-on experimental campaign, both performed at the Politecnico di Milano wind tunnel. Validation of the models was performed by comparing the loads for steady (fixed platform) and unsteady (harmonic motion of the platform) wind conditions. For the unsteady wind conditions, the platform was forced to oscillate in the surge and pitch directions under several frequencies and amplitudes. These oscillations result in a wind variation that impacts the rotor loads (e.g., thrust and torque). For the conditions studied in these tests, the system aerodynamic response was almost steady. Only a small hysteresis in airfoil performance undergoing angle of attack variations in attached flow was observed. During the experiments, the rotor speed and blade pitch angle were held constant. However, in real wind turbine operating conditions, the surge and pitch variations would result in rotor speed variations and/or blade pitch actuations, depending on the wind turbine controller region that the system is operating. Additional simulations with these control parameters were conducted to verify the fidelity of different models. Participant results showed, in general, a good agreement with the experimental measurements and the need to account for dynamic inflow when there are changes in the flow conditions due to the rotor speed variations or blade pitch actuations in response to surge and pitch motion. Numerical models not accounting for dynamic inflow effects predicted rotor loads that were 9 % lower in amplitude during rotor speed variations and 18 % higher in amplitude during blade pitch actuations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Origins of Blast-Loaded Vessels

As the Manhattan Project shifted to the theory of implosion assembly in 1944, plutonium was extremely rare and large uncertainties surrounded the function of the Gadget. For these reasons, a team within the Manhattan Project began another ambitious experiment: to confine the effects of detonating two tons of high explosives and enable the recovery of precious plutonium! No data existed on the subject, and the team faced numerous challenges as they engineered what is believed to be the world’s first blast-loaded confinement vessel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗