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At least 181 records · Page 10

Derivation and Validation of Supraglacial Lake Volumes on the Greenland Ice Sheet from High-Resolution Satellite Imagery

Supraglacial meltwater lakes on the western Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are critical components of its surface hydrology and surface mass balance, and they also affect its ice dynamics. Estimates of lake volume, however, are limited by the availability of in situ measurements of water depth,which in turn also limits the assessment of remotely sensed lake depths. Given the logistical difficulty of collecting physical bathymetric measurements, methods relying upon in situ data are generally restricted to small areas and thus their application to largescale studies is difficult to validate. Here, we produce and validate spaceborne estimates of supraglacial lake volumes across a relatively large area (1250 km(exp 2) of west Greenland's ablation region using data acquired by the WorldView-2 (WV-2) sensor, making use of both its stereo-imaging capability and its meter-scale resolution. We employ spectrally-derived depth retrieval models, which are either based on absolute reflectance (single-channel model) or a ratio of spectral reflectances in two bands (dual-channel model). These models are calibrated by usingWV-2multispectral imagery acquired early in the melt season and depth measurements from a high resolutionWV-2 DEM over the same lake basins when devoid of water. The calibrated models are then validated with different lakes in the area, for which we determined depths. Lake depth estimates based on measurements recorded in WV-2's blue (450-510 nm), green (510-580 nm), and red (630-690 nm) bands and dual-channel modes (blue/green, blue/red, and green/red band combinations) had near-zero bias, an average root-mean-squared deviation of 0.4 m (relative to post-drainage DEMs), and an average volumetric error of b1%. The approach outlined in this study - image-based calibration of depth-retrieval models - significantly improves spaceborne supraglacial bathymetry retrievals, which are completely independent from in situ measurements.

Spectrally-based depth-retrieval models↗

An Initial Validation of Landsat 5 and 7 Derived Surface Water Temperature for U.S. Lakes, Reservoirs, and Estuaries

The United States Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research Control Act of 2014 identified the need for forecasting and monitoring harmful algal blooms (HAB) in lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries across the nation. Temperature is a driver in HAB forecasting models that affects both HAB growth rates and toxin production. Therefore, temperature data derived from the U.S. Geological Survey Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus thermal band products were validated across 35 lakes and reservoirs, and 24 estuaries. In situ data from the Water Quality Portal (WQP) were used for validation. The WQP serves data collected by state, federal, and tribal groups. Discrete in situ temperature data included measurements at 11,910 U.S. lakes and reservoirs from 1980 through 2015. Landsat temperature measurements could include 170,240 lakes and reservoirs once an operational product is achieved. The Landsat-derived temperature mean absolute error was 1.34 C in lake pixels (is) greater than180 m from land, 4.89 C at the land-water boundary, and 1.11 C in estuaries based on comparison against discrete surface in situ measurements. This is the first study to quantify Landsat resolvable U.S. lakes and reservoirs, and large-scale validation of an operational satellite provisional temperature climate data record algorithm. Due to the high performance of open water pixels, Landsat satellite data may supplement traditional in situ sampling by providing data for most U.S. lakes, reservoirs, and estuaries over consistent seasonal intervals (even with cloud cover) for an extended period of record of more than 35 years.

Schaeffer, Blake A.↗

Lake Chad Total Surface Water Area as Derived from Land Surface Temperature and Radar Remote Sensing Data

Lake Chad, located in the middle of the African Sahel belt, underwent dramatic decreases in the 1970s and 1980s leaving less than ten percent of its 1960s surface water extent as open water. In this paper, we present an extended record (dry seasons 1988-2016) of the total surface water area of the lake (including both open water and flooded vegetation) derived using Land Surface Temperature (LST) data (dry seasons 2000-2016) from the NASA Terra MODIS sensor and EUMETSAT Meteosat-based LST measurements (dry seasons 1988-2001) from an earlier study. We also examine the total surface water area for Lake Chad using radar data (dry seasons 2015-2016) from the ESA Sentinel-1a mission. For the limited number of radar data sets available to us (18 data sets), we find on average a close match between the estimates from these data and the corresponding estimates from LST, though we find spatial differences in the estimates using the two types of data. We use these spatial differences to adjust the record (dry seasons 2000-2016) from MODIS LST. Then we use the adjusted record to remove the bias of the existing LST record (dry seasons 1988-2001) derived from Meteosat measurements and combine the two records. From this composite, extended record, we plot the total surface water area of the lake for the dry seasons of 1988-1989 through 2016-2017. We find for the dry seasons of 1988-1989 to 2016-2017 that the maximum total surface water area of the lake was approximately 16,800 sq. km (February and May, 2000), the minimum total surface water area of the lake was approximately 6400 sq. km (November, 1990), and the average was approximately 12,700 sq. km. Further, we find the total surface water area of the lake to be highly variable during this period, with an average rate of increase of approximately 143 sq. km per year.

Policelli, Frederick↗

Evaluation of Matthews-WLR-CH4: A New Wetland, Lake, and Reservoir Methane Emissions Data Set

Methane (CH4) is emitted from a variety of sources, both natural and anthropogenic, and is the second most important greenhouse gas contributing to climate change. Natural wetlands are the largest single contributor to annual global CH4 emissions and other inland water sources, such as lakes and reservoirs, produce CH4 but have received less attention. These emission sources are among the most uncertain components of the global CH4 cycle. These uncertainties stem from numerous issues, including the vast variability in these ecosystems and the sensitivity of CH4 emissions to interannual climate variations. Existing CH4 emission models display large differences in wetland spatial extent and include simplified, or lack all together, wetland-type classifications. Furthermore, CH4 emissions from lakes and reservoirs are typically combined with wetlands, or ignored, on a regional and global scale. Our NASA Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science (IDS) study is focused on developing a suite of data sets on wetlands, lakes, and reservoirs (WLR) including global distributions of types, CH4-centric classifications, and daily CH4 emission rates (hereafter Matthews-WLR-CH4). This project is unique in that it comprises source-independent emission data for WLR, the first spatially-explicit data set of lake and reservoir CH4 emissions, and wetland emissions comprising numerous different wetland-type classifications.The focus of this study is to perform the initial evaluation of the wetland and lake CH4 emissions data from Matthews-WLR-CH4. This evaluation will focus on the domain of North America and include: 1) estimates of the contribution of wetland and lake sources to total CH4 emissions and atmospheric mixing ratios, 2) comparisons of wetland fraction and CH4 emissions to a suite of existing models (e.g., Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP), Global Carbon Project (GCP)), and 3) an accuracy assessment with in situ airborne and tower-based atmospheric CH4 observations when the Matthews-WLR-CH4 emissions are implemented in forward and inverse CarbonTracker-Lagrange (CT-L) CH4 model simulations. Here we will present the new Matthews-WLR-CH4 wetland and lake CH4 emissions data, the initial evaluation of these products, and the path forward for our project.

Reservoir↗

Over-Winter Persistence of Supraglacial Lakes on the Greenland Ice Sheet: Results and Insights From a New Model

We present a newly developed 1-D numerical energy-balance and phase transition supraglacial lake model: Glacier Lake. Glacier Lake incorporates snowfall, in situ snow and ice melt, incoming water from the surrounding catchment, ice lid formation, basal freeze-up and thermal stratification. Snow cover and temperature are varied to test lake development through winter and the maximum lid thickness is recorded. Average wintertime temperatures of −2 to −30◦C and total snowfall of 0 to 3.45 m lead to a range of the maximum lid thickness from 1.2 to 2.8 m after ~250 days, with snow cover exerting the dominant control. An initial ice temperature of −15◦C with simulated advection of cold ice from upstream results in 0.6 m of basal freeze-up. This suggests that lakes with water depths above 1.3 to 3.4 m (dependent on winter snowfall and temperature) upon lid formation will persist through winter. These buried lakes can provide a sizeable water store at the start of the melt season, expedite future lake formation and warm underlying ice even in winter.

glacier hydrology↗

Leveraging Google Earth Engine User Interface for Semiautomated Wetland Classification in the Great Lakes Basin at 10 m With Optical and Radar Geospatial Datasets

As one of the world’s largest freshwater ecosystems,the Great Lakes Basin houses hundreds of thousands of acres of wetlands that support a variety of crucial ecological and environmental functions at the local, regional, and global levels.Monitoring these wetlands is critical to conservation and restoration efforts, however current methods that rely on field monitoring are labor-intensive, costly, and often outdated. In this study, we present a graphical user interface constructed in Google Earth Engine called the Wetland Extent Tool (WET),which allows semi-automatic wetland classification according to a user-input area of interest and date range. WET composites datasets and conducts multi source, moderate resolution processing utilizing Landsat 8 OLI, Sentinel-2 MSI, Sentinel-1 C-SAR, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets to classify wetlands in the entire Great Lakes Basin. We evaluated classification results of wetlands, uplands, and open water from May-September 2019, and tested whether SRTM elevation, slope,or the Dynamic Surface Water Extent produced the most accurate results in each Great Lake Basin in conjunction with optical indices and radar composites. We found that elevation produced the most accurate classification in Lake Erie, Michigan,and Ontario, while slope performed best in Lake Huron and Superior. Lake Erie, Michigan, Ontario, and Huron achieved high overall accuracy and identification of wetlands. WET leverages cloud-computing for multi source processing of moderate resolution remote sensing data, and employs a user interface in Google Earth Engine that wetland managers and conservationists can use to monitor wetland extent in the Great Lakes Basin in near real-time.

Vanessa L Valenti↗

New Estimates of Ice and Oxygen Fluxes Across the Entire Lid of Lake Vostok From Observations of Englacial Radio Wave Attenuation

Over deep Antarctic subglacial lakes, spatially varying ice thickness and the pressure‐dependent melting point of ice result in distinct areas of melting and freeze‐on at the ice‐water interface, that is, at the lake lid. These ice mass fluxes drive lake circulation and, because basal Antarctic ice contains air clathrate, affect the input of oxygen to the lake, with implications for subglacial life. Inferences of rates of melting and freeze‐on, that is, accretion rates, from radar layer tracking and geodesy are limited in spatial coverage and resolution. Here we develop a new method to estimate accretion rate, and the resulting oxygen input at a lake lid, using airborne radar data over Lake Vostok together with ice‐temperature and chemistry data from the Vostok ice core. Because the lake lid is a coherent reflector of known reflectivity (at our radar frequency), we can infer depth‐averaged radio wave attenuation in the ice, with a spatial resolution of ~1 km along flight lines. Spatial variation in attenuation depends mostly on variation in ice temperature near the lid, which in turn varies strongly with ice mass flux at the lid. We model ice temperature versus depth with ice mass flux as a parameter, thus linking that flux to observed depth‐averaged attenuation. The resulting map of melt and accretion rates independently reproduces features known from earlier studies but now covers the entire lid. We find that freeze‐on is dominant when integrated over the lid, with an ice imbalance of 0.05 to 0.07 cu.km/year, which is robust against uncertainties.

Dale P. Winebrenner↗

Limits on Runoff Episode Duration for Early Mars: Integrating Lake Hydrology and Climate Models

Fluvio-lacustrine features on the martian surface attest to a climate that was radically different in the past. Since climate models have difficulty sustaining a liquid hydrosphere at the surface, multiple cycles of runoff episodes may have characterized the ancient Mars climate. A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these runoff-producing episodes? Here we use morphometric measurements from newly identified coupled lake systems, containing both an open- and a closed-basin lake (n=7). We combined hydrological balances with precipitation outputs from climate models, and found that breaching runoff episodes likely lasted 102−105yr; other episodes may have been shorter but could not be longer. Runoff episode durations are model-dependent and spatiallyvariable, and no27climate model scenario can satisfy a unique duration for all coupled systems. In the near future, these quantitative constraints on early Mars lake persistence may be tested through in situ observations from Perseverance rover. Plain Language Summary Ancient river and lake beds on the martian surface point to a climate that was radically different in the past, unlike the dry, cold desert that Mars is today. It experienced significant liquid water flowing across the surface (i.e., ‘runoff’) and hosted long-lived bodies of water (lakes and seas). However, scientists that generate models to simulate the ancient Mars climate have difficulty sustaining this proposed liquid water cycle at the surface. One possible hypothesis is that multiple cycles of individual liquid water episodes may have characterized the ancient martian climate (i.e. runoff episodes). A fundamental question thus remains: what was the duration of these individual runoff-producing episodes? Here we use an approach that takes advantage of unique martian lake system, ‘coupled’ lake systems, and their shapes. We combined these measurements with precipitation results from previous climate models, and found that runoff episodes likely lasted 100-10,000 years, requiring a global climate mechanism that generated repeated cycles of this duration. Ultimately, our results can be tested through observations made by NASA’s Perseverance rover, shedding light on the uninterrupted duration of surface water on Mars and its potential to host life in the past.

Gaia Stucky de Quay↗

Recent Changes in Cyanobacteria Algal Bloom Magnitude in Large Lakes Across the Contiguous United States

Cyanobacterial blooms in inland lakes produce large quantities of biomass that impact drinking water systems, recreation, and tourism and may produce toxins that can adversely affect public health. This study analyzed nine years of satellite-derived bloom records and compared how the bloom magnitude has changed from 2008-2011 to 2016-2020 in 1881 of the largest lakes across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We determined bloom magnitude each year as the spatio-temporal mean cyanobacteria biomass from May to October and in concentrations of chlorophyll-a. We found that bloom magnitude decreased in 465 (25%) lakes in the 2016-2020 23 period. Conversely, there was an increase in bloom magnitude in only 81 lakes (4%). Bloom magnitude either didn’t change, or the observed change was in the uncertainty range in the majority of the lakes (n=1335, 71%). Above-normal wetness and normal or below-normal maximum temperature over the warm season may have caused the decrease in bloom magnitude in the eastern part of the CONUS in recent years. On the other hand, a hotter and dryer warm season in the western CONUS may have created an environment for increased algal biomass. While more lakes saw a decrease in bloom magnitude, the pattern was not monotonic over the CONUS. The variations in temporal changes in bloom magnitude within and across climatic regions depend on the interactions between land use land cover (LULC) and physical factors such as temperature and precipitation. Despite expectations suggested by recent global studies, bloom magnitude has not increased in larger US lakes over this time period.

remote sensing↗

Understanding Volume Estimation Uncertainty of Lakes and Wetlands Using Satellites and Citizen Science

We studied variations in the volume of water stored in small lakes and wetlands using satellite remote sensing and lake water height data contributed by citizen scientists. A total of 94 water bodies across the globe were studied using satellite data in the optical and microwave wavelengths from Landsat 8, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2. The uncertainty in volume estimation as a function of geography and geophysical factors, such as cloud cover, precipitation, and water surface temperature, was studied. The key finding that emerged from this global study is that uncertainty is highest in regions with a distinct precipitation season, such as in the monsoon dominated South Asia or the Pacific Northwestern region of the USA. This uncertainty is further compounded when small lakes and wetlands are seasonal with alternating land use as a water body and agricultural land, such as the wetlands of Northeastern Bangladesh. On an average, 45% of studied lakes could be estimated of their volume change with a statistical significant uncertainty that is less than the expected volume in South Asia. In North America, this statistically significant uncertainty in volume estimation was found to be around 50% in lakes eastward of the 108th meridian with lowest uncertainty found in lakes along the East coast of the USA. The article provides a baseline for understanding the current state of the art in estimating volumetric change of lakes and wetlands using citizen science in anticipation of the recently launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission.

Shahzaib Khan↗

Intensified Warming and Aridity Accelerate Terminal Lake Desiccation in the Great Basin of the Western United States

Terminal lakes in the Great Basin (GB) of the western US host critical wildlife habitat and food for migrating birds and can be associated with serious human health and economic consequences when they desiccate. Water levels have declined dramatically in the last 100+ years due to diversion of inflows, drought and climate change. Satellite-derived environmental science data records (ESDRs) from the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (snow cover, evapotranspiration (ET) and land surface temperature (LST)), enable a unique approach to evaluate the effects of aridification on terminal lakes and to study their individual vulnerabilities. Surface and air temperatures in the GB are rising dramatically, with a sharp rise in the rate of increase observed beginning around 2011, while the number of days of snow cover is declining especially in the western mountainous part of the GB as exemplified in Mono Basin, California. Rising temperatures coincide with fewer days of snow cover, a decrease of inflow to the lakes and greater evaporation of water from the lakes. MODIS ESDRs show strong and statistically significant increasing surface temperature (LST) in the GB, a reduction in the number of days of snow cover, and mixed results in ET. ET declined slightly in the more arid parts of the GB due to greater moisture restrictions to evaporation from extended drought, while ET increased in the more-vegetated, wetter, mountainous northeastern parts as temperatures have risen. Severe and costly ecological, human health and economic consequences are expected if the lakes continue to decline as predicted.

land surface temperature↗

Contrasting effects of lake breeze and urbanization on heat stress in Chicago metropolitan area

This study used the latest Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with multi -layer urban canopy models to investigate contrasting effects from urbanization and lake breeze on summer heat stress over the Chicago metropolitan area (CMA). Comparisons between the model and in situ observations show that this coupled modeling system better captures urban locations' diurnal pattern of surface air temperature, skin temperature and relative humidity, with root mean square error reduced from 1.58 to 1.80 degrees C to 1.14-1.31 degrees C, 3.11-3.55 degrees C to 1.81-2.21 degrees C, and 10.73-11.35% to 7.84-8.60%, respectively, compared to WRF without coupling the urban canopy models. Two sensitivity experiments were conducted to isolate the influence of lake breeze and urbanization: one replaced the urban land use with cropland over the CMA, and the other filled all of Lake Michigan with cropland. Three different heat stress indices were computed to assess the uncertainties of heat stress response to changes in air temperature, relative humidity, and wind conditions. Results show that, when the lake has the largest cooling effect on air temperature, it also increases the relative humidity the most, and vice versa for urban warming and drying effects. Urbanization intensifies heat stress at night, and extends the heat caution period by up to 4 h over inland urban grids; the lake breeze relieves heat stress during afternoon (when the heat stress is the worst), and shortens the heat caution period by 1-3 h over inland urban grids and 3-4 h over coastal urban grids. In conclusion, the intensification of heat stress over the CMA due to urbanization is more than four times greater than the reduction from the lake breeze in the late afternoon and evening.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trends of Sediment Resuspension and Budget in Southern Lake Michigan Under Changing Wave Climate and Hydrodynamic Environment

Sediment suspension and transport driven by waves and currents play a significant role in both the ecological and physical environments of large lakes. Lake Michigan has faced a rapidly increasing water level associated with intensified wind waves in the past decade. To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and associated coastal sediment budgets in southern Lake Michigan, a 30-year (1991–2020) hindcast was performed using a coupled wave-current-sediment model (SWAN-FVCOM-CSTMS). We found that in southern Lake Michigan, the basin-wide mean SSC increased, and the coastal sediment loss accelerated dramatically, corresponding with intensified waves, currents and lake water level rises over the past decade. The basin-wide mean SSC, coastal sediment loss, wave height, wind speed, current speed, and water level in southern Lake Michigan are highly correlated. Spatially, the results reveal decreases in coastal SSC and sediment loss in the western portion of the southern basin, while the eastern sectors show an increase in both metrics. This reflects a clear shift in the wave climate and hydrodynamic environment. The alterations in long-term coastal sediment budgets imply that considerable shoreline transformations are being influenced by modifications in the wave climate. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSC and coastal sediment budgets is crucial for strategic water resource management and coastal infrastructure planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sentinel protist taxa of the McMurdo Dry Valley lakes, Antarctica: a review

High-latitude meromictic lakes such as those in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) harbor aquatic ecosystems dominated by the microbial loop. Within this habitat, which is limited year-round by light and nutrients, protists, or single celled eukaryotes, play outsized roles in the food web as the dominant primary producers and the apex predators. Thus, the MDV lake ecosystem represents an ideal system to study the role of sentinel protist taxa in carbon and nutrient cycling. The perennially ice-covered lakes are part of the McMurdo Long Term Ecological Research (McM LTER; mcmlter.org) established in 1993. In this review we will highlight the diversity and trophic roles of the MDV lake protist community and compare environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns in key protist taxa in two lakes within the McM LTER, Lakes Bonney and Fryxell. We will then discuss lessons learned from manipulated experiments on the impact of current and future climate-driven environmental change on sensitive protist taxa. Last, we will integrate knowledge gained from 25 years of lab-controlled experiments on key photosynthetic protists to extend our understanding of the function of these extremophiles within the MDV aquatic food webs. Our research group has studied the distribution and function of the MDV microbial community for nearly two decades, training the next generation of scientists to tackle future problems of these globally significant microbes. This review article will also highlight early career scientists who have contributed to this body of work and represent the future of scientific understanding in the Anthropocene.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Antarctic Analogy for Ancient Lakes at Gale Crater, Mars

In place of the dual choice of “warm and wet” versus “cold and dry” Mars, we reconcile in this paper the notion of a cold Mars with the notion of wet Mars. Both the geological evidences at Gale's for the presence of liquid water during the Hesperian (Grotzinger et al., Science, 350 (6257), 2015) and the failure of climate models make Mars warm (Wordsworth, Review of Earth and Planetary Science, 44, 1-31, 2016) suggested that an alternative scenario could be envisioned. The lake Untersee, Antarctica is an inspiring example of how an aqueous environment can survive for an extended period of the time in a place where the day average temperatures never, ever, each 273K. The key process which maintains a liquid, potentially habitable, environment under the ice is the subaqueous melting of a glacial dam in contact with the lake which provides a constant latent heat flux into the lake (McKay et al, in preparation) Our calculations showed that for certain range of pressures, temperatures and ice optical properties, a large body of water at Gale's will not freeze solid even if the surface temperatures are at all times well below freezing. The rather high sublimation rates of ice at Mars', the sunlight penetrating the ice and the geothermal flux contribute to stabilize the solid/liquid interface at a certain depth. We found that for a mean annual temperature of 245K ice thicknesses range from 3-10 meters which are comparable values to the range of those for the Antarctic lakes (2-7m). Thus, the ice potentially gets thin enough to let sediments penetrate the ice (Rivera-Hernandez et al., in preparation) and geological features associated with aqueous environments may still be possible with a perennially-covered lake, on cold, but wet planet. The Antarctic lakes model is engaging as it relaxes the requirement for a long-lived active hydrological cycle.

The lake Untersee↗

Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change

Millions of lakes inversely stratify during winter. Seemingly subtle variations in the duration of winter stratification can have major ecological effects by, for example, altering the vertical distribution of oxygen and nutrients in lakes. Yet, the influence of climate change on winter stratification has been largely unexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, here we used a lake-climate model ensemble to investigate changes in winter stratification from 1901 to 2099 across 12,242 representative lakes situated throughout the Northern Hemisphere. By the end of the 21st century, winter stratification duration is projected to shorten by an average of 18.5–53.9 d under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5. Projected changes are faster in warmer geographical regions, in which 35–69% of lakes will no longer inversely stratify by 2070–2099 under RCPs 2.6–8.5. This shortening and loss of winter stratification will likely have numerous implications for lakes, including the misalignment of lifecycle events causing shifts in biodiversity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Manganese-Rich Sandstones as an Indicator of Ancient Oxic Lake Water Conditions in Gale Crater, Mars

Manganese has been observed on Mars by the NASA Curiosity rover in a variety of contexts and is an important indicator of redox processes in hydrologic systems on Earth. Within the Murray formation, an ancient primarily fine-grained lacustrine sedimentary deposit in Gale crater, Mars, have observed up to 45× enrichment in manganese and up to 1.5× enrichment in iron within coarser grained bedrock targets compared to the mean Murray sediment composition. This enrichment in manganese coincides with the transition between two stratigraphic units within the Murray: Sutton Island, interpreted as a lake margin environment, and Blunts Point, interpreted as a lake environment. On Earth, lacustrine environments are common locations of manganese precipitation due to highly oxidizing conditions in the lakes. Here, we explore three mechanisms for ferromanganese oxide precipitation at this location: authigenic precipitation from lake water along a lake shore, authigenic precipitation from reduced groundwater discharging through porous sands along a lake shore, and early diagenetic precipitation from groundwater through porous sands. All three scenarios require highly oxidizing conditions and we discuss oxidants that may be responsible for the oxidation and precipitation of manganese oxides. This work has important implications for the habitability of Mars to microbes that could have used Mn redox reactions, owing to its multiple redox states, as an energy source for metabolism.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Phenological shifts in lake stratification under climate change

One of the most important physical characteristics driving lifecycle events in lakes is stratification. Already subtle variations in the timing of stratification onset and break-up (phenology) are known to have major ecological effects, mainly by determining the availability of light, nutrients, carbon and oxygen to organisms. Despite its ecological importance, historic and future global changes in stratification phenology are unknown. Here, we used a lake-climate model ensemble and long-term observational data, to investigate changes in lake stratification phenology across the Northern Hemisphere from 1901 to 2099. Under the high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenario, stratification will begin 22.0 ± 7.0 days earlier and end 11.3 ± 4.7 days later by the end of this century. It is very likely that this 33.3 ± 11.7 day prolongation in stratification will accelerate lake deoxygenation with subsequent effects on nutrient mineralization and phosphorus release from lake sediments. Further misalignment of lifecycle events, with possible irreversible changes for lake ecosystems, is also likely.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗