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NASA NTRS2008

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 41 : GDIS Workshop Report

The workshop "An International Global Drought Information System Workshop: Next Steps" was held on 10-13 December 2014 in Pasadena, California. The more than 60 participants from 15 countries spanned the drought research community and included select representatives from applications communities as well as providers of regional and global drought information products. The workshop was sponsored and supported by the US National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program, the World Climate Research Program (WCRP: GEWEX, CLIVAR), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) programs on Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) and Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP). NASA/JPL hosted the workshop with logistical support provided by the GEWEX program office. The goal of the workshop was to build on past Global Drought Information System (GDIS) progress toward developing an experimental global drought information system. Specific goals were threefold: (i) to review recent research results focused on understanding drought mechanisms and their predictability on a wide range of time scales and to identify gaps in understanding that could be addressed by coordinated research; (ii) to help ensure that WRCP research priorities mesh with efforts to build capacity to address drought at the regional level; and (iii) to produce an implementation plan for a short duration pilot project to demonstrate current GDIS capabilities. See http://www.wcrp-climate.org/gdis-wkshp-2014-objectives for more information.

GEO↗
NASA NTRS1987

The mid-quarternary climatic transition as the free response of a three-variable dynamical model

A simplified version of a previously described dynamical model governing global ice mass, atmospheric carbon dioxide, and mean ocean temperature is shown to possess solutions, in a realistic parameter range, that can replicate the main features of the climatic variations implied by the full, two million years, Quaternary delta-O-18 record. These variations include a major 'transition' between a low-ice delta-O-18, low variance mode before roughly 900 kyr BP to a high-ice, high (near 100 kyr period) variance mode after that time to the present. The model contains only three free parameters in this simplified form. No external earth-orbital forcing is prescribed; i.e., the model represents only internal dynamics. From the previous studies it seems clear that additional variance representing such features as the 'rapid' deglaciation and the phase of the major Quaternary oscillation can be largely explained with no more than four additional parameters representing an internal asymmetry and the external perodic forcing. The present results, therefore, constitute a first-order account for the existence of the 'ice age' fluctuations over the last two million years, including the concomitant variations of atmospheric CO2.

Saltzman, Barry↗
NASA NTRS1991

Effects of satellite data resolution on measuring the space/time variations of surfaces and clouds

The correlated distributions of satellite-measured visible and infrared radiances, caused by spatial and temporal variations in clouds and surfaces, have been found to be characteristic of the major climate regimes and can be described by the attributes of bidimensional and monodimensional histograms and time-composite images. Most of the variability of both the surfaces and clouds is found to occur at scales larger than the minimum resolved by satellite imagery. Since satellite imaging data sets are difficult to analyze because of their large volumes, many studies reduce the volume by various sampling or averaging schemes. The effects of data resolution and sampling on the radiance histogram statistics and on the time-composite image characteristics are examined. In particular, the sampling strategy used by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project is tested. This sampling strategy is found to preserve the statistics of smaller cloud variations for most regions, with the exception of very rare events, if they are accumulated over large enough areas (at least 500 km in dimension) and long enough time periods (at least one month).

Seze, Genevieve↗
NASA NTRS2024

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model vs Observations

Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous off-shore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline – leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season – a signal then amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE, a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in Global Climate Model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counter-intuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More importantly, periods with weak correlation between FSIAE and the Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes dominate over late winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline is an ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness.

off-shore ice drift↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airborne Observations of Aerosol Properties in Southeast Asia: Overview of Emissions, Cloud Processing, and Long Range Transport during NASA CAMP2Ex

The Southwest Monsoon represents an important synoptic scale meteorological feature that modulates precipitation throughout Southeast Asia. In addition, southwesterly flow can funnel large amounts of biomass burning aerosol into heavily populated areas throughout the Philippines, mixing with urban emissions and representing a significant air quality issue. From a climate perspective, understanding interactions between these particles and clouds has important societal ramifications through frequent extreme periods of flood and drought. Here we present airborne observations made in support of the NASA CAMP2Ex (Cloud and Aerosol Monsoonal Processes-Philippines Experiment) mission aboard the Wallops Flight Facility P-3 research aircraft, based at Clark International Airport in the Luzon region of Northern Philippines. Nineteen research flights were conducted in August-October of 2019. An extensive suite of aerosol microphysical, optical, and chemical instrumentation was deployed, along with trace gas and remote sensing measurements, to characterize aerosol emissions and their vertical/spatial variability associated with moderately convective marine cloud systems in the region. Analysis will focus on characterizing disparate aerosol sources with respect to derived chemical and optical properties relevant to global circulation modeling. For example, higher than expected mass scattering efficiencies for aged biomass burning emissions, derived from a combination of nephelometer and aerosol mass spectrometer measurements, are attributed to increased particle size and decreased density. Results will also illustrate the evolution of aerosols from Indonesian agricultural biomass burning activities into the Philippines region, in comparison with urban emissions from the megacity Manila and transported air masses from mainland Asia.

Luke David Ziemba↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Characterizing the Seasonal and Diurnal Aerosol Cycles using CATS Space-Based Lidar

The broader effects aerosols have on the earth and climate system is determined by a host of factors including their composition and vertical distribution. Characterizing the vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols is especially important considering it remains one of the greatest uncertainties in climate predictions. Space-based lidar, such as Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS), is especially well suited as a remote sensing tool in determining this vertical distribution. CALIOP has been used for over a decade to observe the global and vertical distribution of clouds and aerosols but is limited by Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations’ (CALIPSO’s) polar orbit to set equatorial crossing times of ~1:30AM/PM. This limited temporal sampling limits the use of CALIOP in determining the full diurnal variability of clouds and aerosols. On the International Space Station (ISS), with its inclined orbit and variable equatorial crossing times, the CATS lidar provided an opportunity to study the vertical profile of clouds and aerosols at a variety of local times. With this 33-month CATS record, we show that CATS captured the seasonal changes in global aerosol distributions and compares favorably with other instruments and models. Specifically targeting biomass burning regions, we also find CATS could observe the documented diurnal cycle in aerosol altitudes with some caveats. With the next generation of proposed space-based lidars including designs in similar orbits as the ISS and CATS, future studies of the aerosol diurnal and seasonal cycles would also be possible.

Kenneth Christian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Power: Global Solar Insolation, Meteorological Parameter Data, and Web Services to Support Sustainable Building Design and Operations

The buildings industry is currently striving to adopt green solutions to make infrastructure more energy-efficient in order to meet the 2050 net-zero climate goals. This planning requires reliable environmental datasets that are crucial in designing, building, and maintaining our world’s-built environment, as well as other energy-related processes and investments. This webinar for the National Institute of Building Sciences provides an overview of NASA’s Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project that informs decision-making and development for sustainable building design and operations by enabling public open discovery, efficient access, and convenient distribution of NASA’s Earth Observations and global atmospheric model datasets. POWER’s datastore is comprised of solar radiation and surface meteorology parameters, spanning nearly 40 years of hourly data, that are easily accessible via several access methods and tools to support three focus areas: 1) renewable energy deployment and management, 2) sustainable infrastructure, and 3) agroclimatology applications. POWER and NASA Earth Science both plan future data parameters, updated tools, and improved observations that could directly support U.S. and international sustainable development goals, climate strategies, and building information modeling. To this end, solar data from several NASA projects and meteorological data from NASA assimilation models have already been reformatted and disseminated to the public via a user-friendly web GIS-enabled based data portal through the POWER Project. POWER data is analysis-ready and accessible through an Application Programming Interface (API), ArcGIS Image Services, and the project’s Data Access Viewer enhanced (DAVe), an interactive online tool. The POWER DAVe also features data consistent with ASHRAE Climate Design Conditions and has developed web image services showing Building Climate Zones and their variability. Through those tools, the data can be downloaded into multiple formats that support the infrastructure community, including CSV and Energy Plus Weather (EPW). POWER’s entire data product catalog is available through Amazon Web Services (AWS) Open Data Registry (ODR) via a free and publicly accessible Simple Storage Service (S3). This webinar provides a full overview of the NASA POWER Project's data and services developed in collaboration with the sustainable infrastructure community. Examples of how the renewable energy and building communities have utilized POWER data products to make decisions and a preview of future data product expansion, including climate projections, and web services will also be provided. Additionally, use case stories from our broad community of users will be presented.

Paul W. Stackhouse↗
NASA NTRS2019

Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth Century North American Drought in a Warmer World

In the mid-twentieth century (1948-1957), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, Southern Plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the Southern Plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above pre-industrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and Southern Plains and intensified in the Southeast, while during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and Southern Plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern US, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.

Benjamin I Cook↗
NASA NTRS2005

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions over Indo-Gangetic Basin

About 60% of world population reside in Asia, in term of which sheer population density presents a major environmental stress. Economic expansion in this region is, in fact, accompanied by increases in bio-fuel burning, industrial pollution, and land cover and land use changes. With a growth rate of approx. 8%/yr for Indian economy, more than 600 million people from Lahore, Pakistan to Calcutta, India over the Indo-Gangetic Basin have particularly witnessed increased frequencies of floods and droughts as well as a dramatic increase in atmospheric loading of aerosols (i.e., anthropogenic and natural aerosol) in recent decades. This regional change (e.g., aerosol, cloud, precipitation, etc.) will constitute a vital part of the global change in the 21st century. Better understanding of the impacts of aerosols in affecting monsoon climate and water cycles is crucial in providing the physical basis to improve monsoon climate prediction and for disaster mitigation. Based on climate model simulations, absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) play a critical role in affecting interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. An initiative on the integrated (aerosols, clouds, and precipitation) measurements approach over the Indo-Gangetic Basin will be discussed. An array of ground-based (e.g., AERONET, MPLNET, SMART-COMMIT, etc.) and satellite (e.g., Terra, A-Train, etc.) sensors will be utilized to acquire aerosol characteristics, sources/sinks, and transport processes during the pre-monsoon (April-May, aerosol forcing) season, and to obtain cloud and precipitation properties during the monsoon (May-June, water cycle response) season. Close collaboration with other international programs, such as ABC, CLIVAR, GEWEX, and CEOP in the region is anticipated.

Tsay, S.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

Ahamed, Aakash↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lagrangian Assimilation of Satellite Data for Climate Studies in the Arctic

Under this grant we have developed and tested a new Lagrangian model of sea ice. A Lagrangian model keeps track of material parcels as they drift in the model domain. Besides providing a natural framework for the assimilation of Lagrangian data, it has other advantages: 1) a model that follows material elements is well suited for a medium such as sea ice in which an element retains its identity for a long period of time; 2) model cells can be added or dropped as needed, allowing the spatial resolution to be increased in areas of high variability or dense observations; 3) ice from particular regions, such as the marginal seas, can be marked and traced for a long time; and 4) slip lines in the ice motion are accommodated more naturally because there is no internal grid. Our work makes use of these strengths of the Lagrangian formulation.

Lindsay, Ronald W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Welcome to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise

There are strong scientific indications that natural change in the Earth system is being accelerated by human intervention. As a result, planet Earth faces the possibility of rapid environmental changes that would have a profound impact on all nations. However, we do not fully understand either the short-term effects of our activities, or their long-term implications - many important scientific questions remain unanswered. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working with the national and international scientific communities to establish a sound scientific basis for addressing these critical issues through research efforts coordinated under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, and the World Climate Research Program. The Earth Science Enterprise is NASA's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise will use space- and surface-based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. The space-based components will provide a constellation of satellites to monitor the Earth from space. A major component of the Earth Science Enterprise is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The overall objective of the EOS Program is to determine the extent, causes, and regional consequences of global climate change. EOS will provide sustained space-based observations that will allow researchers to monitor climate variables over time to determine trends. A constellation of EOS satellites will acquire global data, beginning in 1998 and extending well into the 21st century.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

Clouds and Aerosols in the Climate System

Remote sensing of cloud and aerosol properties from space is reviewed for present and planned international satellite sensors. Techniques that are being used to enhance our ability to characterize the global distribution of cloud and aerosol properties include well-calibrated multispectral radiometers that rely on visible, near-infrared, and thermal infrared channels, sometimes including polarization as well. The availability of thermal channels to aid in cloud screening for aerosol properties is an important additional piece of information that has not always been incorporated into sensor designs. In this paper, we describe the radiative properties of clouds as currently determined from satellites (cloud fraction, optical thickness, cloud top pressure, and cloud effective radius), and highlight the global and regional cloud microphysical properties currently available for assessing climate variability and forcing. In addition, we will frustrate the radiative and microphysical properties of aerosol particles that are currently available from space-based observations, as well as enhancements to aerosol remote sensing over bright-reflecting surfaces that is anticipated in the next couple of years. Finally, we will describe the aerosol optical and radiative properties available from the globally distributed AERONET network of ground-based sun-sky radiometers.

King, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VALENTInE: A Concept for a New Frontiers Class Long Duration In-Situ Balloon Mission to Venus

Venus and Earth are similar in bulk composition, size, density, and approximate distance from the Sun, yet Venus’s modern-day climate and surface geology is distinctly different [1]. Previous missions to Venus revealed unusual volcanic features, possible continental crust, widespread volcanic plains, a weak magnetic field [2], and insights into the Venusian atmosphere [3,4]. Unfortunately, data from these missions were limited in spatial and temporal resolution and global extent. A future mission to Venus is critical to address fundamental questions surrounding the chemical composition and dynamics of the Venusian atmosphere [5], its geologic history [6,7], its internal structure [8,9], and its habitability throughout time [10,11]. We present the Venus Air and Land Expedition: a Novel Trailblazer for In situ Exploration (VALENTInE) mission to meet this need. VALENTInE is a variable altitude balloon that will passively float in Venus’s atmosphere between 45 and 55 km altitude. VALENTInE will acquire atmospheric data at varying latitudes and longitudes in addition to mapping the surface geomorphology and mineralogy across multiple terrains. Mission Objectives: The VALENTInE mission concept is driven by four main science objectives: 1. Determine whether the driving force of the superrotation of Venus’s atmosphere is caused by horizontal or vertical momentum transport. 2. Determine whether the atmospheric composition and noble gas inventory of the Venusian atmosphere is a product of outgassing from the initial protoplanetary source or if there are significant contributions from exogenic sources. 3. Determine whether the tesserae regions (particularly Aphrodite Terra) are felsic and relatively older than surrounding regions. 4. Determine if there is any evidence of a recent dynamo preserved in the rock record of Venus. Mission Overview: A balloon architecture provides a robust system that can survive long-term in the Venusian environment while taking accurate measurements of the lower cloud deck and surface. Two prior balloon missions to Venus, VEGA 1 and VEGA 2 in 1984, have demonstrated the potential for such planetary exploration; however, these missions were short-lived (46 hr), with limited range (54 km). Our spacecraft concept consists of a battery powered balloon with a gondola and flyby carrier stage (Fig. 1). Our novel design allows for at least 15 days of atmospheric exploration, including multiple ascents and descents in the Venus atmosphere. VALENTInE is baselined to launch in 2032, cruise on solar power for 128 days, enter, descend, and inflate (EDI) into Venus’s atmosphere above Aphrodite Terra, and float in Venus’s atmosphere for a total nominal mission duration of 15 days. The balloon, able to control its altitude by changing its buoyancy, will make one full circumnavigation every 4–8 days and move poleward ~1 o latitude per day; it will be passively directed by the horizontal air currents on Venus. The balloon can only be controlled in the z direction, and the expected latitude range is ±10° from EDI. The balloon itself will be a tracer for atmospheric structures such as zonal winds [5, 12]. During the 15-day operational period, there will be five dips to 45 km for a compositional study of the lower atmosphere and geological and magnetic mapping of the surface. Dips are used to take images and measurements closer to the surface and to obtain in situ vertical atmospheric profiles between 45 and 55 km. Instruments: The VALENTInE instrument payload will allow for extensive study of the geology, atmosphere, and interior of Venus. The instrument suite consists of six instruments. The mission profile for each instrument is shown in Fig. 2. Lower Atmosphere Meteorology Analyzer (LAMA) is an atmospheric structure instrument consisting of a thermometer, barometer, and accelerometer to continuously measure temperature and pressure as a function of altitude, longitude, and latitude. TracE and Noble Gas Investigator (TENGI) is aneutral mass spectrometer used to sample the dense atmosphere. TENGI will operate continuously at 45 km and 55 km and will measure D/H ratios, as well as Ne, Ar, and O isotopic ratios. Kilometer Scale Spectral Imager (KSSI) is amultispectral imager (850-1150 nm) used to resolve surface features on the order of km. Near InfraRed Multispectral Photometer (NIRMP) is an Infrared (IR) photometer used to image the surface through the clouds to characterize mineral assemblages at five different areas of the surface. NIRMP will be operated during dwell. ELevation REConnaissance (ELREC) is a light detection and ranging (LIDAR) instrument used for measuring topography at five different areas of the surface. The ELREC data will be combined with those of NIRMP to determine mineral assemblages and how they correlate to topography. Magnetic Exploration and Interior Detective (MEID) is a magnetometer used to detect any near-surface magnetic anomalies. The magnetometer will continuously operate at all altitudes. Mission Design: The spacecraft’s propulsion system will have a wet mass of 930 kg and will be launched on an Atlas V rocket. The spacecraft will jettison the payload upon arrival in Venus’s atmosphere before decelerating to orbital velocity. Figure 2. Notional power-dip profile while the balloon is on the dayside. Risks and Challenges: Raising and lowering the spacecraft to dip beneath the haze layer require a large amount of energy. This issue was partly compensated by limiting the number of dips over the 15 day prime mission. Power needs for pumping helium are reduced by slowing the descent speed, which consequently increases spatial resolution of in situ measurements between 45 and 55 km. The main limitation for the duration of the mission is the need to carry 15 days’ worth of batteries. The bus experiences external Venusian temperatures ranging from ~27°C at 55 km altitude to ~110°C at 45 km altitude. These high atmospheric temperatures require thermal protection for the bus (instruments, electronics, and flight systems) during its descent, dwell at 45 km, and ascent. The bus is maintained at a mechanically safe temperature range of -10°C to 50°C using white external paint, multi-layer insulation (MLI), mechanical/thermal isolation (e.g. Ti, composites), and ~57 kg of Phase Change Materials (PCM). Images and spectra taken below the haze dominate the available data transmission regardless of the time spent at 45 km. Therefore, less time at the lower altitude mainly reduces the coverage of in situ measurements there. Further, we assumed an unrealistically low-density material for the helium storage tanks on the gondola. However, this issue is partially resolved if we were to jettison 75% of the spent helium storage tanks. After the entry process, the balloon volume remains mostly inflated and storage tanks are required only for reducing balloon volume in dipping to 45 km. This mission was planned against an expected New Frontiers 5 (NF5) cost cap of $1B, as the NF5 call had not yet been released. The mission we describe fits within the predicted cost cap if the flyby carrier stage, responsible for powering the spacecraft during cruise and for relaying in situ measurements back to Earth, can be contributed by another space agency. Acknowledgments: We thank the JPL Planetary Science Summer School, especially A. Nash, J. Scully, K. Mitchell, L. Lowes, and J. Armijo, and our mentors from JPL Team X. Thank you to our review panel for their insightful review. References: [1] Kane, S. et al. (2019) JGR:Ps, 124 , 2015–2028. [2] Phillips, J. L., & Russell, C. T. (1987). JGR: Space Physics , 92 (A3), 2253-2263. [3] Nakamura, M. et al. (2018) Earth Planets Space, 70 (1), 144. [4] Svedhem, H. et al. (2009) JGR:P 114 (E5). [5] Limaye et al. (2009) Decadal Survey White Paper . [6] Ivanov, M. and Head, J. (2011) PSS, 59 (13) , 1559-1600. [7] Smrekar, S. et al. (2018) Space Sci Rev, 214 (5), 88. [8] O’Rourke, J. et al. (2018) EPSL, 502 , 46-56. [9] O’Rourke J. et al. (2019) GRL , (46), 5768–5777 [10] Way, M. et al. (2016) GRL, 43 (16), 8376-8383. [11] Way, M. et al. (2020) JGR:P, 125 (5), e2019JE006276. [12] Preston, R. A. et al. (1986) Science, 231 (4744), 1414-1416.

Mission Concept↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Conflicts in the Middle East

We analyzed the latest climate model projections (CMIP6) of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5, to detect potential future changes in the Middle East. A baseline period (1981-2010) was compared with the middle (2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21st century. The Tigris-Euphrates headwaters was identified as the hotspot of future compound effects of climate change in the region. In particular, the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) region is likely to see the most dramatic compound changes of any area in the Middle East. That assessment was based on the model projections that showed rapid warming, increased interannual precipitation variability, and decreased precipitation all coinciding in an area of massive irrigation development and known transboundary water tension. It is likely that GAP would exacerbate environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region, therefore its adverse impacts might outnumber its benefits in coming decades. This study attempts to warn decision-makers of the urgent need to integrate these trends to water resource planning and international negotiations.

Middle East↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA's Water Solutions Using Remote Sensing

NASA Water Resources works within Earth sciences to leverage investments of space-based observation, model results, and development and deployment of enabling technologies, systems, and capabilities into water resources management decision support tools for the sustainable use of water. Earth science satellite observations and modelling products provide a huge volume of valuable data in both near-real-time and extended back nearly 50 years about the Earth's land surface conditions such as land cover type, vegetation type and health, precipitation, snow, soil moisture, and water levels and radiation. Observations of this type combined with models and analysis enable satellite-based assessment of the water cycle. With increasing population pressure and water usage coupled with climate variability and change, water issues are being reported by numerous groups as the most critical environmental problems facing us in the 21st century. Competitive uses and the prevalence of river basins and aquifers that extend across boundaries engender political tensions between communities, stakeholders and countries. The NASA Water Resources Program has the objective to provide NASA products to help deal with these issues with the goal for the sustainable use of water. The Water Resources program organizes its projects under five functional themes: 1) stream-flow and flood forecasting; 2) water consumptive use (includes evapotranspiration) and irrigation; 3) drought; 4) water quality; and 5) climate and water resources. NASA primarily works with national and international groups such as other US government agencies (NOAA, EPA, USGS, USAID) and various other groups to maximize the widest use of the water products. A summary of NASA's water activities linked to helping solve issues for developing countries will be highlighted.

Toll, David↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying the Influence of Mechanistic Representation of Particle Dry Deposition on Historical Changes in Aerosol-Climate Interactions

Dry deposition removes short-lived climate forcers and their precursors from the atmosphere. The aerosol dry deposition schemes in many global climate models have been untouched for decades. Previous work hints that aerosol dry deposition is an uncertainty with respect to aerosol impacts on climate change. Here we demonstrate the impact of a more mechanistic aerosol dry deposition parameterization on the historical aerosol direct and cloud albedo effects using the NASA GISS global chemistry-climate model. We investigate two aerosol configurations – a “bulk” mass-based scheme and a modal scheme that more explicitly represents internal mixing and microphysics – of the global model. Both configurations show ~20% larger historical increases in non-dust aerosols globally with more mechanistic dry deposition. Changes to particle dry deposition, which are strongly a function of particle diameter, have a greater influence on the cloud albedo effect (up to 0.1 W m-2) when aerosols are more explicitly resolved in the modal scheme. On the other hand, impacts on the direct aerosol effect are small for both model configurations. In both aerosol configurations, the global climate effects are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the strength of the uptake to dry deposition as suggested by (limited) measurements. In general, the low number of aerosol flux measurements and strong variability across existing observations challenge confidence in our understanding of dry depositional processes and changes with environmental conditions. Nonetheless, our work suggests that changes in dry deposition may be important for accurately estimating increases in aerosol abundances over the historical period, which is key for correct inferences about how cooling from aerosols has offset warming from greenhouse gases.

Dry deposition↗