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Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Weather Prediction

The potential role of soil moisture initialization in seasonal forecasting is illustrated through ensembles of simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) model. For each boreal summer during 1997-2001, we generated two 16-member ensembles of 3-month simulations. The first, "AMIP-style" ensemble establishes the degree to which a perfect prediction of SSTs would contribute to the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature over continents. The second ensemble is identical to the first, except that the land surface is also initialized with "realistic" soil moisture contents through the continuous prior application (within GCM simulations leading up to the start of the forecast period) of a daily observational precipitation data set and the associated avoidance of model drift through the scaling of all surface prognostic variables. A comparison of the two ensembles shows that soil moisture initialization has a statistically significant impact on summertime precipitation and temperature over only a handful of continental regions. These regions agree, to first order, with regions that satisfy three conditions: (1) a tendency toward large initial soil moisture anomalies, (2) a strong sensitivity of evaporation to soil moisture, and (3) a strong sensitivity of precipitation to evaporation. The degree to which the initialization improves forecasts relative to observations is mixed, reflecting a critical need for the continued development of model parameterizations and data analysis strategies.

Koster, Randal D.↗

Space Exploration Technologies Developed through Existing and New Research Partnerships Initiatives

The Space Partnership Development Program of NASA has been highly successful in leveraging commercial research investments to the strategic mission and applied research goals of the Agency through industry academic partnerships. This program is currently undergoing an outward-looking transformation towards Agency wide research and discovery goals that leverage partnership contributions to the strategic research needed to demonstrate enabling space exploration technologies encompassing both robotic spacecraft missions and human space flight. New Space Partnership Initiatives with incremental goals and milestones will allow a continuing series of accomplishments to be achieved throughout the duration of each initiative, permit the "lessons learned" and capabilities acquired from previous implementation steps to be incorporated into subsequent phases of the initiatives, and allow adjustments to be made to the implementation of the initiatives as new opportunities or challenges arise. An Agency technological risk reduction roadmap for any required technologies not currently available will identify the initiative focus areas for the development, demonstration and utilization of space resources supporting the production of power, air, and water, structures and shielding materials. This paper examines the successes to date, lessons learned, and programmatic outlook of enabling sustainable exploration and discovery through governmental, industrial, academic, and international partnerships. Previous government and industry technology development programs have demonstrated that a focused research program that appropriately shares the developmental risk can rapidly mature low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) technologies to the demonstration level. This cost effective and timely, reduced time to discovery, partnership approach to the development of needed technological capabilities addresses the dual use requirements by the investing partners. In addition, these partnerships help to ensure the attainment of complimenting human and robotic exploration goals for NASA while providing additional capabilities for sustainable scientific research benefiting life and security on Earth.

Nall, Mark↗

Distribution of Inclusion-Initiated Fatigue Cracking in Powder Metallurgy Udimet 720 Characterized

In the absence of extrinsic surface damage, the fatigue life of metals is often dictated by the distribution of intrinsic defects. In powder metallurgy (PM) alloys, relatively large defects occur rarely enough that a typical characterization with a limited number of small volume fatigue test specimens will not adequately sample inclusion-initiated damage. Counterintuitively, inclusion-initiated failure has a greater impact on the distribution in PM alloy fatigue lives because they tend to have fewer defects than their cast and wrought counterparts. Although the relative paucity of defects in PM alloys leads to higher mean fatigue lives, the distribution in observed lives tends to be broader. In order to study this important failure initiation mechanism without expending an inordinate number of specimens, a study was undertaken at the NASA Glenn Research Center where known populations of artificial inclusions (seeds) were introduced to production powder. Fatigue specimens were machined from forgings produced from the seeded powder. Considerable effort has been expended in characterizing the crack growth rate from inclusion-initiated cracks in seeded PM alloys. A rotating and translating positioning system, with associated software, was devised to map the surface inclusions in low-cycle fatigue (LCF) test bars and to monitor the crack growth from these inclusions. The preceding graph illustrates the measured extension in fatigue cracks from inclusions on a seeded LCF test bar subjected to cyclic loading at a strain range of 0.8 percent and a strain ratio (max/min) of zero. Notice that the observed inclusions fall into three categories: some do not propagate at all (arrest), some propagate with a decreasing crack growth rate, and a few propagate at increasing rates that can be modeled by fracture mechanics. The following graph shows the measured inclusion-initiated crack growth rates from 10 interrupted LCF tests plotted against stress intensities calculated for semi-elliptical cracks with the observed surface lengths. The expected scatter in the crack growth rates for stress intensity ranges near threshold is observed. These data will be used to help determine the distribution in growth rates of cracks emanating from inclusions as well as the proportion of cracks that arrest under various loading conditions.

Bonacuse, Peter J.↗

A Coordinated Initialization Process for the Distributed Space Exploration Simulation (DSES)

This document describes the federate initialization process that was developed at the NASA Johnson Space Center with the HIIA Transfer Vehicle Flight Controller Trainer (HTV FCT) simulations and refined in the Distributed Space Exploration Simulation (DSES). These simulations use the High Level Architecture (HLA) IEEE 1516 to provide the communication and coordination between the distributed parts of the simulation. The purpose of the paper is to describe a generic initialization sequence that can be used to create a federate that can: 1. Properly initialize all HLA objects, object instances, interactions, and time management 2. Check for the presence of all federates 3. Coordinate startup with other federates 4. Robustly initialize and share initial object instance data with other federates.

Phillips, Robert↗

Examining the Impacts of High-Resolution Land Surface Initialization on Model Predictions of Convection in the Southeastern U.S.

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within physics parameterizations, model resolution limitations, as well as uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture and temperature, ground fluxes, and vegetation are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of local circulations and summertime pulse convection. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center has been conducting studies to examine the impacts of high-resolution land surface initialization data generated by offline simulations of the NASA Land Informatiot~ System (LIS) on subsequent numerical forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Case et al. 2008, to appear in the Journal of Hydrometeorology). Case et al. presents improvements to simulated sea breezes and surface verification statistics over Florida by initializing WRF with land surface variables from an offline LIS spin-up run, conducted on the exact WRF domain and resolution. The current project extends the previous work over Florida, focusing on selected case studies of typical pulse convection over the southeastern U.S., with an emphasis on improving local short-term WRF simulations over the Mobile, AL and Miami, FL NWS county warning areas. Future efforts may involve examining the impacts of assimilating remotely-sensed soil moisture data, and/or introducing weekly greenness vegetation fraction composites (as opposed to monthly climatologies) into ol'fline NASA LIS runs. Based on positive impacts, the offline LIS runs could be transitioned into an operational mode, providing land surface initialization data to NWS forecast offices in real time.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

A Modeling and Verification Study of Summer Precipitation Systems Using NASA Surface Initialization Datasets

One of the most challenging weather forecast problems in the southeastern U.S. is daily summertime pulse-type convection. During the summer, atmospheric flow and forcing are generally weak in this region; thus, convection typically initiates in response to local forcing along sea/lake breezes, and other discontinuities often related to horizontal gradients in surface heating rates. Numerical simulations of pulse convection usually have low skill, even in local predictions at high resolution, due to the inherent chaotic nature of these precipitation systems. Forecast errors can arise from assumptions within parameterization schemes, model resolution limitations, and uncertainties in both the initial state of the atmosphere and land surface variables such as soil moisture and temperature. For this study, it is hypothesized that high-resolution, consistent representations of surface properties such as soil moisture, soil temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are necessary to better simulate the interactions between the surface and atmosphere, and ultimately improve predictions of summertime pulse convection. This paper describes a sensitivity experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Interpolated land and ocean surface fields from a large-scale model are replaced with high-resolution datasets provided by unique NASA assets in an experimental simulation: the Land Information System (LIS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) SSTs. The LIS is run in an offline mode for several years at the same grid resolution as the WRF model to provide compatible land surface initial conditions in an equilibrium state. The MODIS SSTs provide detailed analyses of SSTs over the oceans and large lakes compared to current operational products. The WRF model runs initialized with the LIS+MODIS datasets result in a reduction in the overprediction of rainfall areas; however, the skill is almost equally as low in both experiments using traditional verification methodologies. Output from object-based verification within NCAR s Meteorological Evaluation Tools reveals that the WRF runs initialized with LIS+MODIS data consistently generated precipitation objects that better matched observed precipitation objects, especially at higher precipitation intensities. The LIS+MODIS runs produced on average a 4% increase in matched precipitation areas and a simultaneous 4% decrease in unmatched areas during three months of daily simulations.

Jonathan L. Case↗

Initialization and Restart in Stochastic Local Search: Computing a Most Probable Explanation in Bayesian Networks

For hard computational problems, stochastic local search has proven to be a competitive approach to finding optimal or approximately optimal problem solutions. Two key research questions for stochastic local search algorithms are: Which algorithms are effective for initialization? When should the search process be restarted? In the present work we investigate these research questions in the context of approximate computation of most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). We introduce a novel approach, based on the Viterbi algorithm, to explanation initialization in BNs. While the Viterbi algorithm works on sequences and trees, our approach works on BNs with arbitrary topologies. We also give a novel formalization of stochastic local search, with focus on initialization and restart, using probability theory and mixture models. Experimentally, we apply our methods to the problem of MPE computation, using a stochastic local search algorithm known as Stochastic Greedy Search. By carefully optimizing both initialization and restart, we reduce the MPE search time for application BNs by several orders of magnitude compared to using uniform at random initialization without restart. On several BNs from applications, the performance of Stochastic Greedy Search is competitive with clique tree clustering, a state-of-the-art exact algorithm used for MPE computation in BNs.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗

Initial Assessment of Open Rotor Propulsion Applied to an Advanced Single-Aisle Aircraft

Application of high speed, advanced turboprops, or propfans, to subsonic transport aircraft received significant attention and research in the 1970s and 1980s when fuel efficiency was the driving focus of aeronautical research. Recent volatility in fuel prices and concern for aviation s environmental impact have renewed interest in unducted, open rotor propulsion, and revived research by NASA and a number of engine manufacturers. Unfortunately, in the two decades that have passed since open rotor concepts were thoroughly investigated, NASA has lost experience and expertise in this technology area. This paper describes initial efforts to re-establish NASA s capability to assess aircraft designs with open rotor propulsion. Specifically, methodologies for aircraft-level sizing, performance analysis, and system-level noise analysis are described. Propulsion modeling techniques have been described in a previous paper. Initial results from application of these methods to an advanced single-aisle aircraft using open rotor engines based on historical blade designs are presented. These results indicate open rotor engines have the potential to provide large reductions in fuel consumption and emissions. Initial noise analysis indicates that current noise regulations can be met with old blade designs and modern, noiseoptimized blade designs are expected to result in even lower noise levels. Although an initial capability has been established and initial results obtained, additional development work is necessary to make NASA s open rotor system analysis capability on par with existing turbofan analysis capabilities.

Guynn, Mark D.↗

Correlated Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and Radar Observations of the Initial Stages of Florida Triggered Lightning Discharges

We characterize the geometrical and electrical characteristics of the initial stages of nine Florida triggered lightning discharges using a Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), a C-band SMART radar, and measured channel-base currents. We determine initial channel and subsequent branch lengths, average initial channel and branch propagation speeds, and channel-base current at the time of each branch initiation. The channel-base current is found to not change significantly when branching occurs, an unexpected result. The initial stage of Florida triggered lightning typically transitions from vertical to horizontal propagation at altitudes of 3-6 km, near the typical 0 C level of 4-5 km and several kilometers below the expected center of the negative cloud-charge region at 7-8 km. The data presented potentially provide information on thunderstorm electrical and hydrometeor structure and discharge propagation physics. LMA source locations were obtained from VHF sources of positive impulsive currents as small as 10 A, in contrast to expectations found in the literature.

Hill, J. D.↗

Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which configuration options are best to address this specific forecast concern, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) was employed. In addition to the two dynamical cores, there are also two options for a "hot-start" initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; McGinley 1995) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996). Both LAPS and ADAS are 3- dimensional weather analysis systems that integrate multiple meteorological data sources into one consistent analysis over the user's domain of interest. This allows mesoscale models to benefit from the addition of highresolution data sources. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, provides SMG and MLB with considerable flexibility as well as challenges. It is the goal of this study to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗

SMOS Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System: Impact on LSM Initialization and NWP Forecasts

Land surface models are important components of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, partitioning incoming energy into latent and sensitive heat fluxes that affect boundary layer growth and destabilization. During warm-season months, diurnal heating and convective initiation depend strongly on evapotranspiration and available boundary layer moisture, which are substantially affected by soil moisture content. Therefore, to properly simulate warm-season processes in NWP models, an accurate initialization of the land surface state is important for accurately depicting the exchange of heat and moisture between the surface and boundary layer. In this study, soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite radiometer are assimilated into the Noah Land Surface Model via an Ensemble Kalman Filter embedded within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) software framework. The output from LIS-Noah is subsequently used to initialize runs of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model. The impact of assimilating SMOS retrievals is assessed by initializing the WRF model with LIS-Noah output obtained with and without SMOS data assimilation. The southeastern United States is used as the domain for a preliminary case study. During the summer months, there is extensive irrigation in the lower Mississippi Valley for rice and other crops. The irrigation is not represented in the meteorological forcing used to drive the LIS-Noah integration, but the irrigated areas show up clearly in the SMOS soil moisture retrievals, resulting in a case with a large difference in initial soil moisture conditions. The impact of SMOS data assimilation on both Noah soil moisture fields and on short-term (0-48 hour) WRF weather forecasts will be presented.

Blankenship, Clay↗

Understanding the Impacts of Soil Moisture Initial Conditions on NWP in the Context of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

The role of soil moisture in NWP has gained more attention in recent years, as studies have demonstrated impacts of land surface states on ambient weather from diurnal to seasonal scales. However, soil moisture initialization approaches in coupled models remain quite diverse in terms of their complexity and observational roots, while assessment using bulk forecast statistics can be simplistic and misleading. In this study, a suite of soil moisture initialization approaches is used to generate short-term coupled forecasts over the U.S. Southern Great Plains using NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) and NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) modeling systems. This includes a wide range of currently used initialization approaches, including soil moisture derived from ‘off-the-shelf’ products such as atmospheric models and land data assimilation systems, high-resolution land surface model spinups, and satellite-based soil moisture products from SMAP. Results indicate that the spread across initialization approaches can be quite large in terms of soil moisture conditions and spatial resolution, and that SMAP performs well in terms of heterogeneity and temporal dynamics when compared against high resolution land surface model and in-situ soil moisture estimates. Case studies are analyzed using the local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) framework that relies on integrated assessment of soil moisture, surface flux, boundary layer, and ambient weather, with results highlighting the critical role of inherent model background biases. In addition, simultaneous assessment of land vs. atmospheric initial conditions in an integrated, process-level fashion can help address the question of whether improvements in traditional NWP verification statistics are achieved for the right reasons.

Southern Great Plains↗

Mid-Air Range-Visual-Inertial Estimator Initialization for Micro Air Vehicles

Monocular Visual-Inertial Odometry (VIO) has become ubiquitous for navigation of autonomous Micro Air Vehicles (MAVs). Yet, state-of-the-art VIO is still very failure- prone, which can have dramatic consequences. To prevent this, VIO must be able to re-initialize in mid-air, either during a free fall or on a constant horizontal velocity trajectory after attitude control has been re-established. However, for both of these trajectories, the visual scale cannot be observed with VIO batch initializers because of the absence of acceleration change. We propose to use a small and lightweight laser range finder and a scene facet model to initialize vision-based navigation at the right scale under any motion condition and over any scene structure. This new range constraint is integrated into a visual-inertial bundle adjustment initializer. We demonstrate in simulation and real data how this approach can address mid-air state estimation failure in real-time and analyze the sensitivity of estimators to initial state errors.

Brockers, Roland↗

Analysis of Mars 2020 Perseverance Entry, Descent, and Landing Attitude Initialization Performance

The Mars 2020 Perseverance rover successfully landed at Jezero Crater on February 18, 2021. To perform this feat, the entry, descent, and landing navigation filter must be initialized with an estimate of the spacecraft state, which includes attitude from the cruise attitude control subsystem. Accuracy of this initial attitude estimate has an impact on important metrics such as touchdown velocity. This paper presents a post-landing reconstruction of the attitude initialization error budget, showing that the requirement of 0.15 deg ($3\sigma$, per axis) was met. Each error source is described and analyzed, including flight telemetry where possible. Analysis of the error budget shows that it is driven by systematic sun sensor errors, star-scanner-to-sun-sensor alignment stability, and inertial-measurement-unit-to-sun-sensor alignment stability. Finally, a contingency plan to initialize the navigation filter in the event of a star scanner failure is presented. While this plan was not needed in flight, results indicate that the attitude initialization requirement could have still been met in this off-nominal scenario.

Lo, Kevin D.↗

Starling Formation-Flying Optical Experiment: Initial Operations and Flight Results

This paper presents initial flight results for angles-only navigation of a swarm of small spacecraft, conducted during the Starling Formation-Flying Optical Experiment (StarFOX). StarFOX is one of four experiments aboard the NASA Starling mission, which consists of four CubeSats launched in July 2023. Angles-only methods apply inter-satellite bearing angles obtained by on-board cameras for navigation, increasing satellite autonomy and enabling new mission concepts. Nevertheless, prior flight demonstrations have only featured one observer and target and have relied upon a-priori target orbit knowledge for initialization, translational maneuvers to resolve target range, and external absolute orbit updates to maintain convergence. StarFOX overcomes these limitations by applying the angles-only Absolute and Relative Trajectory Measurement System (ARTMS), which integrates three novel algorithms. Image Processing detects and tracks multiple targets in images, using multi-hypothesis methods and domain-specific kinematic modeling, and computes target bearing angles. Batch Orbit Determination computes initial swarm orbit estimates from bearing angle batches, via iterative batch least squares and sampling of the weakly observable target range. Sequential Orbit Determination leverages an adaptive, efficient unscented Kalman filter with nonlinear models to refine swarm state estimates over time. Multi-observer measurements shared over an intersatellite link are seamlessly fused to enable robust absolute and relative orbit determination. Initial StarFOX experiments are the first demonstrations of autonomous angles-only navigation for a satellite swarm, including multi-target and multi-observer relative navigation; autonomous initialization of navigation for unknown targets; and simultaneous absolute and relative orbit determination. Relative navigation accuracy of 1% (single observer) and 0.2% (multi-observer) of the inter-satellite range is achieved under challenging measurement conditions. Results demonstrate promising performance with regards to ongoing StarFOX campaigns and the application of angles-only navigation to future distributed missions.

Relative Navigation↗

Safety-Related Instrumentation & Control Pilot Upgrade Initiation Phase Implementation Report

This research report (1) describes the process followed and products developed during the SR I&C Pilot Project Initial Scoping Phase, and (2) captures lessons learned. Exelon Generation and LWRS collaborated to develop a Digital Transformation Strategy as part of a larger Advanced Concept of Operations. The proposed SR I&C Pilot Upgrade provides a foundation stone for this Digital Transformation that will improve plant safety, reliability, and operational performance while lowering plant Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). Initial Scoping Phase activities for this Pilot Project have been performed in accordance with industry processes that have been adapted to better support digital upgrades. These processes include IP-ENG-001, Standard Design Process (SDP) [Reference 2], NISP-EN-04, Standard Digital Engineering Process (SDEP) [Reference 3], and Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) Report 3002011816, Digital Engineering Guide (DEG). Completing Initial Scoping Phase Engineering and Operations, Licensing, and Project Management Activities was necessary to sufficiently bound the scope, schedule, and estimated cost of the Project to enable utility management to authorize moving into the Conceptual Design Phase. A significant finding of the Business Case Analysis (BCA) methodology developed and applied as part of this effort was that the growth rate of material costs for sustaining the operation of obsolete SR I&C equipment is accelerating. This directly contributed to the Project Economic Analysis created to justify continuing the Project. Project Initial Scoping Phase lessons learned have also been captured to assist the larger industry in understanding the Digital Transformation Strategy and SR I&C Pilot Project Initial Scoping Phase efforts. This is in keeping with the public/private partnership that has been established between the Department of Energy (DOE) and Exelon for this effort with engagement from the NRC. By addressing first-of-a-kind (FOAK) risks and capturing lessons learned, the SR I&C Pilot Upgrade Project addresses technical, regulatory, and business risks to enable subsequent implementers of similar upgrades.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Role of Material Condition in Precursor Corrosion Damage and Stress Corrosion Crack Initiation Behavior of Alloy 600 in PWR Primary Water

Stress corrosion crack (SCC) initiation testing has been performed on a 15% cold-worked UNS N06600 (Alloy 600) heat in the mill-annealed (MA), solution annealed (SA), and thermally treated (TT) conditions to assess the role of grain boundary (GB) carbides on stress-assisted intergranular attack (IGA) and short crack nucleation and growth. The SCC initiation tests were conducted at constant load equivalent to materials yield stress in 360oC simulated PWR primary water with dissolved hydrogen at the Ni/NiO stability line. Results revealed the highest SCC initiation susceptibility in the Alloy 600 MA material followed by the TT and SA materials, suggesting the GB carbide distribution did not have a controlling effect on SCC initiation resistance. Quantitative assessments were conducted on IGA and short cracks to help understand this phenomenon and the role of GB carbides on precursor damage development that lead to differences in macroscopic SCC initiation behavior are discussed.

Zhai, Ziqing↗