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On the Path to SunShot: Emerging Opportunities and Challenges in Financing Solar

This report analyzes solar financing strategies and their role in achieving the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot goals. Financing is critical to solar deployment, because the costs of solar technologies are paid up front, while their benefits are realized over decades. Solar financing has been shaped by government solar incentives, particularly federal tax incentives, which have spawned complex tax-equity structures that monetize tax benefits for project sponsors who otherwise could not use them efficiently. Although these structures have helped expand solar deployment, they are relatively costly and inefficient. This has spurred solar stakeholders to develop lower-cost financing solutions such as securitization of solar project portfolios, solar-specific loan products, and methods for incorporating residential solar's value into home values. To move solar further toward an unsubsidized SunShot future, additional financial innovation must occur. Development of a larger, more mature U.S. solar industry will likely increase financial transparency and investor confidence, which in turn will enable simpler, lower-cost financing methods. Utility-scale solar might be financed more like conventional generation assets are today, non-residential solar might be financed more like a new roof, and residential solar might be financed more like an expensive appliance. Assuming a constant, SunShot-level installed photovoltaic (PV) system price, such financing innovations could reduce PV's levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by an estimated 25%-50% compared with historical financing approaches. These results suggest that financing can adapt to changing conditions and might ease the transition away from a reliance on tax incentives while driving solar's LCOE toward the SunShot goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Next-Generation Performance-Based Regulation. Volume 1: Introduction - Global Lessons for Success; Volume 2: Primer - Essential Elements of Design and Implementation; Volume 3: Innovative Examples from Around the World

Performance-based regulations (PBRs) provide a regulatory framework to connect goals, targets, and measures to utility performance or executive compensation. Well-designed PBRs provide incentives for utility performance, benefiting consumers and utility owners alike. This report considers the role of both PBRs and more discrete performance incentive mechanisms (PIMs) in 21st century power sector transformation. Innovative technologies are transforming the way electricity is generated, delivered, and consumed. PBRs have the potential to realign utility, investor, and consumer incentives and mitigate emerging challenges to the utility business model, renewable integration, and even cyber security.The goals of PBRs in the form of multi-year rate plans are in many respects the same in terms of providing reasonably priced and reliable service to customers. However, today's technologies have changed, and there is more emphasis on clean energy. Thus, the pathways and the potential outcomes are different than they were in the 20th century when centralized generator stations and large infrastructure additions dominated the utility landscape. Given unprecedented changes underway in the electricity sector, PBRs - by specifying expectations of utility performance and outcomes for consumers, while staying agnostic to the exact means of delivery - constitute a form of prescient regulation that harnesses disruption. PBRs are one tool in a broader toolbox in the transition toward flexible regulatory and market structures that rewards utilities that adapt or evolve in reaction to market and technology change. PBRs and PIMs have great value for the electric industry when designed well and can be applied to many different situations. How exactly PBR mechanisms are most effectively enacted will vary based on the utility ownership model, institutional arrangements, and a variety of other local factors. PBRs should be tailored to the needs and goals of each jurisdiction, and perhaps each utility, to most effectively achieve the needs of a 21st century power grid in that jurisdiction. Presented in three volumes, this report highlights the lessons learned from their evolving history, explores essential elements of their design and implementation as well as considerations for how they may be best applied, and examines leading examples of PBRs from the United Kingdom, New York, Denmark, Mexico, and South Africa. The full report, 'Next-Generation Performance Based Regulation - Emphasizing Utility Performance to Unleash Power Sector Innovation,' published in September 2017, can be accessed at https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68512.pdf.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment

Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.

economics↗

Policy, Regulatory, Legal, and Permitting Case Study Subtask 3.2 – Topical Report

This report summarizes the policy, regulatory, legal, and permitting requirements to-date for the siting of a CO 2 injection and storage project in the CarbonSAFE Illinois East Sub-Basin pre-feasibility study area. Where applicable, the East Sub-Basin case study focuses on a proposed carbon capture and storage (CCS) site location in West Terre Haute, Indiana. Indiana has established the legal mechanisms to obtain rights to the subsurface mineral estate with the expectation to apply to reservoir pore space for CO 2 storage in an analogous manner to storage of natural gas, which is a common practice in Indiana. There is, however, no precedent in Indiana to take liability for stored CO 2 . There are currently no Indiana State incentives for CCS, but at the Federal level, tax credits for carbon capture and storage under 26. U.S. Code § 45Q constitute the greatest incentive targeted at CCS projects. The amendment to these credits put forth in the Bipartisan Budget Act (the FUTURE Act) of 2018 substantially increases the per-ton incentive for CCS—from $22.66 per ton in tax year 2017 up to $50 per ton in tax year 2027, for CO 2 not used as an injectant (i.e. saline storage). Additional economic opportunities may exist for the provision of CO 2 for potential EOR in the Illinois Basin. Policies that may support the development of CO 2 pipelines and/or CCS projects in Indiana include: 1) Title 41 of the FAST Act (2015), which created a new governance structure, procedures, and funding authorities in order to improve and expedite Federal review and authorization of covered infrastructure projects, including pipelines, and 2) the Eminent Domain for Transportation of Carbon Dioxide by Pipeline (IC 14-39, Indiana State, 2011), which declares pipeline transportation of CO 2 exclusively to a carbon management application, including sequestration, enhanced oil recovery, and deep saline injection as a benefit to the welfare of Indiana and the people. The US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program Class VI rule and permit requirements address all components pertaining to CO 2 injection and monitoring for long-term storage, and outline the minimum technical criteria to protect underground sources of drinking water at, and surrounding, injection well sites. The Class VI requirements also address financial responsibility for corrective action, post-injection site care, and site closure. In addition, UIC Program public notice requirements include that the EPA issue notice of the draft permit preparation to key stakeholders, and open a public comment period of not less than 30 days. A public hearing about the permit would also be held, if specifically requested by the public. A potential Class VI CO 2 injection well permit for the East Sub-Basin case study site would be obtained through the US EPA Region 5, because the State of Indiana does not have UIC Class VI primacy. Although no CO 2 injection wells have been permitted in Indiana, the US EPA Region 5 (which covers Illinois and Indiana) and the East Sub-Basin CarbonSAFE team (via the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium [MGSC]) have Class VI permitting experience from several projects located in Illinois. Based on our experience, applying for a Class VI permit can be an intensive and iterative process requiring clear communication and numerous interactions with EPA staff. In addition to gathering and preparing the data/models and documentation necessary for a permit application’s initial submittal, the subsequent public comments, EPA response and review, and answering of any follow-up questions/requests by the EPA could significantly increase the timeframe of draft permit issuance. The US EPA offers guidance documents regarding the specific Class VI permit requirements, and shows a general permitting timeline example from the FutureGen Alliance 2.0 covering one-and-a-half years from permit submittal to issuance. However, the overall permitting process to-date has a high degree of variability, and in MGSC’s project experience we observed a more extended timeline to receive Class VI permits for each of two CO 2 injection wells.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

US alternative jet fuel deployment scenario analyses identifying key drivers and geospatial patterns for the first billion gallons ,

The aviation sector's commitments to carbon-neutral growth in international aviation starting in 2020, and the desire to improve supply surety, price stability, and the environmental performance of aviation fuels, have led to broad interest in sustainable alternative jet fuels. Here, we use the system-dynamics-based biomass scenario model (BSM), focused on alternative jet fuel production capacity evolution, and the geospatially explicit Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT), focused on optimal feedstock and fuel flows over the transportation system, to explore the incentive effects on alternative jet fuel production capacity trajectories and potential geospatial patterns of production and delivery in the USA. Scenarios presented here focus on readily available waste feedstocks (waste fats, oils and greases, municipal solid waste, and crop and forestry residues) and conversion technologies included in the ASTM D7566 synthesized aviation turbine fuels specification. The BSM modeling of possible deployment trajectories from 2015 to 2045 suggests that up to 8 billion gallons may be available by 2045 depending on the policies and incentives implemented. Both approaches suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible in 2030 given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate, and that capital costs and technology maturation rates will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies, and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Incentivizing Flexibility in System Operations

Defining flexibility has been a challenge that a number of industry members and researchers have attempted to address in recent years. With increased variability and uncertainty of variable generation (VG), the resources on the system will have to be more flexible to adjust output, so that power output ranges, power ramp rates, and energy duration sustainability are sufficient to meet the needs of balancing supply with demand at various operational timescales. This chapter discusses whether existing market designs provide adequate incentives for resources to offer their flexibility into the market to meet the increased levels of variability and uncertainty introduced by VG in the short-term operational time frame. It presents a definition of flexibility and discusses how increased levels of VG require increased needs for flexibility on power systems. Following this introductory material, the chapter examines how existing market designs ensure that resources have the right incentives to provide increased flexibility, and then discusses a number of emerging market design elements that impact flexibility incentives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Deployment of plug-in electric vehicles in China and the USA: issues and opportunities, foreword

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), have been promoted globally for their emission reductions and energy conservation. In addition to financial incentives for PEVs in many countries (Stephens et al. 2018), emission and energy regulatory systems provide additional incentives for PEVs in the USA, Europe, and China (European Union 2014; Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation 2019; U.S. EPA and NHTSA 2012). These incentives, together with PEV technology advances and cost reductions, have caused PEV sales to grow exponentially in many countries and global regions; PEV stocks totaled more than 5 million by the end of 2018 (Fig. 1). The International Energy Agency (2019) projects that PEV sales will grow even more quickly through 2030 to reach a total global PEV stock of 130 million to 250 million.

China↗

Optimizing the performance of Ice-storage Systems in Electricity Load Management through a credit mechanism. An analytical work for Jiangsu, China

Ice-storage air-conditioning is a technique that uses ice for thermal energy storage. Replacing existing air conditioning systems with ice storage has the advantage of shifting the load from on-peak times to off-peak times that often have excess generation. However, increasing the use of ice-storage faces significant challenges in China. One major barrier is the inefficiency in the current electricity tariff structure. There is a lack of effective incentive mechanism that induces ice-storage systems from achieving optimal load-shifting results. This study presents an analysis that compares the potential impacts of ice-storage systems on load-shifting under a new credit-based incentive scheme and the existing incentive arrangement in Jiangsu, China. The study indicates that by changing how ice-storage systems are incentivized in Jiangsu, load-shifting results can be improved.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Impact of residential PV adoption on Retail Electricity Rates

The price of electricity supplied from home rooftop photo voltaic (PV) solar cells has fallen below the retail price of grid electricity in some areas. A number of residential households have an economic incentive to install rooftop PV systems and reduce their purchases of electricity from the grid. A significant portion of the costs incurred by utility companies are fixed costs which must be recovered even as consumption falls. Electricity rates must increase in order for utility companies to recover fixed costs from shrinking sales bases. Increasing rates will, in turn, result in even more economic incentives for customers to adopt rooftop PV. In this paper, we model this feedback between PV adoption and electricity rates and study its impact on future PV penetration and net-metering costs. We find that the most important parameter that determines whether this feedback has an effect is the fraction of customers who adopt PV in any year based solely on the money saved by doing so in that year, independent of the uncertainties of future years. These uncertainties include possible changes in rate structures such as the introduction of connection charges, the possibility of PV prices dropping significantly in the future, possible changes in tax incentives, and confidence in the reliability and maintainability of PV. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cai, DWH↗

System benefits of industrial battery storage: A comparison of grid and facility control and dispatch

Customer-owned, distributed battery installations are being incentivized by utilities to increase installed battery capacity. In many of these incentive agreements, the battery owner relinquishes battery control to the utility in exchange for incentive money. The industrial sector has lagged in storage installation when compared to the residential and commercial sectors. This study compares the economic advantages to utilities and industrial facilities in different dispatch control situations. The study presents a novel framework for the optimization of multiple systems using load profiles from the industrial, residential, and commercial sectors. Case studies are presented to illustrate different dispatch scenarios. Further, the simulations showed more fiscal benefit for the industrial facilities to dispatch the battery for electrical demand reduction than utility dispatch. In the case studies, facility dispatch control resulted in an increase of facility savings by a factor of about 8.7 when compared to utility dispatch. Battery size plays a significant factor on the impact of the grid’s generating costs, showing that larger batteries can provide significant benefit even if dispatched by the facility. Future policies concerning industrial battery installations should consider overall economic benefits to utility and facility in the form of rate structures and incentive participation based on battery size.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Realistic Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Croplands for Climate Mitigation

Existing estimates of the climate mitigation potential from cropland carbon sequestration (C-sequestration) are limited because they tend to assume constant rates of soil organic carbon change over all available cropland area, use relatively coarse land delineations, and often fail to adequately consider the agronomic and socioeconomic dimensions of agricultural land use. This results in an inflated estimate of the C-sequestration potential. We address this gap by defining a more appropriate land base for cover cropping in the United States for C-sequestration purposes: stable croplands in annual production systems that can integrate cover cropping without irrigation. Our baseline estimate of this suitable stable cropland area is 32% of current U.S. cropland extent. Even an alternative, less restrictive definition of stability results in a large reduction in area (44% of current U.S. croplands). Focusing cover crop implementation to this constrained land base would increase durability of associated C-sequestration and limit soil carbon loss from land conversion to qualify for carbon-specific incentives. Applying spatially-variable C-sequestration rates from the literature to our baseline area yields a technical potential of 19.4 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 annually, about one-fifth of previous estimates. We also find the cost of realizing about half (10 Tg CO 2 e yr –1 ) of this potential could exceed 100 USD Mg CO 2 e –1 , an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. While our economic analyses suggest that financial incentives are necessary for large-scale adoption of cover cropping in the U.S., they also imply any C-sequestration realized under such incentives is likely to be additional.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards cost-competitive middle distillate fuels from ethanol within a market-flexible C2 platform-based biorefinery concept

Ethanol to middle distillates (ETMD) is a promising pathway to produce sustainable liquid fuels to decarbonize the hard-to-electrify transportation sectors due to (1) the abundant sugar/starch and lignocellulosic biomass, (2) the existing deployment scale of fuel ethanol production (similar to 29 billion gallons per year globally), and (3) emerging opportunities in C2+ alcohol synthesis from CO2. Here we report a conceptual market-responsive biorefinery centered around a new ETMD pathway based on one-step ethanol to butene-rich olefins (ETO) over a Cu-Zn-Y/Beta catalyst. Specifically, this ethanol conversion pathway comprises one-step ETO, oligomerization, and hydrotreating. This ETO is distinct from that in the conventional ethanol-to-jet process which is based on two-step ethanol to ethylene and ethylene oligomerization to butenes. Butene-rich olefins can be shifted to butadiene-rich products by simply changing the reaction atmosphere from hydrogen to inert gas over the same ETO catalyst. Leveraging the experimental results, baseline techno-economic analysis (TEA) and sensitivity analysis indicate that the ethanol conversion cost is $0.60 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), with opportunities for further cost reduction via improving the liquid hydrocarbon yield and space velocities, and process optimization on balancing dewatering of ethanol feed prior to the ETO step. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of liquid hydrocarbons derived from corn starch ethanol with butadiene as coproduct is $1.64 per GGE, in the range that is cost competitive with petroleum kerosene-type jet fuel. Projected MFSP for cellulosic ethanol (corn stover) derived hydrocarbons is below $3.00 per GGE and co-production of butadiene further reduces the MFSP to $1.70 per GGE. The Well-to-Wake life-cycle analysis indicates that 85% greenhouse gas emission reduction can be achieved when using corn stover compared to petroleum reference and the associated carbon credits will provide significant economic incentives to favor the cellulosic ethanol-derived hydrocarbon fuels. This study demonstrates a low-cost pathway to middle distillate fuels leveraging existing ethanol infrastructure, where catalysis innovation drives the reduction of process complexity and flexible coproduction of a value-added chemical product.

Zhang, Junyan↗

Scheduling and Pricing for Expected Ramp Capability in Real-Time Power Markets

Higher variable renewable generation penetrations are occurring throughout the world on different power systems. These resources increase the variability and uncertainty on the system which must be accommodated by an increase in the flexibility of the system resources in order to maintain reliability. Many scheduling strategies have been discussed and introduced to ensure that this flexibility is available at multiple timescales. To meet variability, that is, the expected changes in system conditions, two recent strategies have been introduced: time-coupled multi-period market clearing models and the incorporation of ramp capability constraints. To appropriately evaluate these methods, it is important to assess both efficiency and reliability. But it is also important to assess the incentive structure to ensure that resources asked to perform in different ways have the proper incentives to follow these directions, which is a step often ignored in simulation studies. Here we find that there are advantages and disadvantages to both approaches. We also find that look-ahead horizon length in multi-period market models can impact incentives. This paper proposes scheduling and pricing methods that ensure expected ramps are met reliably, efficiently, and with associated prices based on true marginal costs that incentivize resources to do as directed by the market. Case studies show improvements of the new method.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Pecan Street Grid Demonstration Program. Final technology performance report

This document represents the final Regional Demonstration Project Technical Performance Report (TPR) for Pecan Street Inc.’s (Pecan Street) Smart Grid Demonstration Program, DE-OE-0000219. Pecan Street is a 501(c)(3) smart grid/clean energy research and development organization headquartered at The University of Texas at Austin (UT). Pecan Street worked in collaboration with Austin Energy, UT, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), the City of Austin, the Austin Chamber of Commerce and selected consultants, contractors, and vendors to take a more detailed look at the energy load of residential and small commercial properties while the power industry is undergoing modernization. The Pecan Street Smart Grid Demonstration Program signed-up over 1,000 participants who are sharing their home or businesses’s electricity consumption data with the project via green button protocols, smart meters, and/or a home energy monitoring system (HEMS). Pecan Street completed the installation of HEMS in 750 homes and 25 commercial properties. The program provided incentives to increase the installed base of roof-top solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, plug-in electric vehicles with Level 2 charging, and smart appliances. Over 200 participants within a one square mile area took advantage of Austin Energy and Pecan Street’s joint PV incentive program and installed roof-top PV as part of this project. Of these homes, 69 purchased or leased an electric vehicle through Pecan Street’s PV rebate program and received a Level 2 charger from Pecan Street. Pecan Street studied the impacts of these technologies along with a variety of consumer behavior interventions, including pricing models, real-time feedback on energy use, incentive programs, and messaging, as well as the corresponding impacts on Austin Energy’s distribution assets.The primary demonstration site was the Mueller community in Austin, Texas. The Mueller development, located less than three miles from the Texas State Capitol, is a 711-acre LEED Neighborhood Development mixed-use, urban infill redevelopment on the site of Austin’s former airport, currently under development through a public-private project between the City of Austin, and Catellus Austin LLC. Currently, Mueller is less than 50% complete and more than 3,500 people live or work at Mueller. At full build-out, the project will include more than 3 million square feet of commercial and institutional space, more than 13,000 residents from approximately 5,700 single-family and multi-family dwelling units. Figure 1 shows a Google Map image of the Mueller community, zoomed in on the residential streets participating in the project.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Orange County Government Solar Demonstration and Research Facility

Orange County Florida completed the construction of a 20 kilowatt Solar Demonstration and Research Facility in March 2015. The system was constructed at the Orange County/University of Florida Cooperative Extension Center whose electric service address is 6021 South Conway Road, Orlando, Florida 32802. The Solar Demonstration and Research Facility is comprised of 72 polycrystalline photovoltaic modules and 3 inverters which convert direct current from the solar panels to alternating current electricity. Each module produces 270 watts of direct current power, for a total canopy production of just under 20,000 watts. The solar modules were installed with a fixed tilt of 5 degrees and face south, toward the equator to maximize the amount of sunlight captures. Each year, the electricity generated by the solar array will help eliminate 20 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions as well as provide covered parking for staff and visitors vehicles. The solar array is expected to generate 27,000 kilowatt hours of electricity annually equating to an estimated $\$$266 savings in the monthly electric bill, or $\$$3,180 annually for the Orange County/University of Florida Cooperative Extension Center. In addition to reducing the electric bill for the Extension Center, Orange County’s solar array also takes advantage of a rebate incentive offered by the local utility, Orlando Utility Commission, which provided a meter that measures the amount of power produced by the solar array. The local utility company’s Solar Photovoltaic Production Incentive will pay Orange County $\$$0.05 per kilowatt hour for the power that is produced by the solar array. This incentive is provided in addition to Net Metering benefits, which is an effort to promote the use of clean, renewable energy on the electric grid. The Photovoltaic Solar Demonstration and Research Facility also serves an educational tool to the public; the solar array is tied directly into a data logger that provides real time power generation accessible for public viewing on an interactive kiosk located in the Orange County/University of Florida Cooperative Extension Center’s lobby where visitors can review “real time” power generation, cost savings and environmental benefits of the system. Site commissioning with the software program was delayed due to Internal Security Software issues within Orange County that needed to be resolved, therefore the “real time” capture of the production data for the solar array using the software program commenced on May 1, 2015. In addition an educational flyer was developed and is available in the Orange County Education Center’s main lobby. The project completed under this grant award assisted Orange County in demonstrating leadership by installing the application of a renewable energy technology combined with energy efficiency measures; resulting in reduced energy costs for the Orange County University of Florida Cooperative Extension Center, and helping Orange County citizens and visitors move towards the goals of greater energy independence and climate protection. The addition of the new Solar Demonstration and Research Facility has advanced the Orange County/University of Florida Cooperative Extension Center’s mission of extending, educating and providing research-based information to residents and visitors of Orange County by demonstrating the application of renewable energy technology combined with energy efficiency measures; resulting in reduced energy costs, and helping Orange County move towards the goal of greater energy independence and climate protection. In 2014, the Orange County Cooperative Extension Center hosted nearly 10,800 visitors to their on-site Exploration Gardens plus 12,686 walk-in visitors to their office plant clinic and other services. The Education Center held 2,217 educational events that were attended by 46,434 adults and youth, but about half of those events occurred off-site. Based on the visitation numbers in 2014 the Orange County Cooperative Extension Center Education is a vital partner to Orange County’s continued outreach and education efforts concerning renewable energy technologies and greenhouse gas emission reduction well in the current 2015 year and future years of operation of the solar array to the future visitors of the Center which help stimulate market demand that will continue to advance the commercialization and the widespread application and use of renewable energy technologies in Orange County and the state of Florida. The project period performance date for this grant was November 1, 2009 through March 1, 2015. The Final Project costs to complete the project as reported in the FINAL SF 425 were $\$$195,512.50 (50% recipient cost share was satisfied as required by grant terms and conditions).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Effects of Deployment Investment on the Growth of the Biofuels Industry. 2016 Update

This report updates the 2013 report of the same title. Some text originally published in that report is retained and indicated in gray. In support of the national goals for biofuel use in the United States, numerous technologies have been developed that convert biomass to biofuels. Some of these biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathways are operating at commercial scales, while others are in earlier stages of development. The advancement of a new pathway toward commercialization involves various types of progress, including yield improvements, process engineering, and financial performance. Actions of private investors and public programs can accelerate the demonstration and deployment of new conversion technology pathways. These investors (both private and public) will pursue a range of pilot, demonstration, and pioneer scale biorefinery investments; the most cost-effective set of investments for advancing the maturity of any given biomass to biofuel conversion technology pathway is unknown. In some cases, whether or not the pathway itself will ultimately be technically and financially successful is also unknown. This report presents results from the Biomass Scenario Model--a system dynamics model of the biomass to biofuels system--that estimate effects of investments in biorefineries at different maturity levels and operational scales. The report discusses challenges in estimating effects of such investments and explores the interaction between this deployment investment and a volumetric production incentive. Model results show that investments in demonstration and deployment have a substantial growth impact on the development of the biofuels industry. Results also show that other conditions, such as accompanying incentives, have major impacts on the effectiveness of such investments. Results from the 2013 report are compared to new results. This report does not advocate for or against investments, incentives, or policies, but analyzes simulations of their hypothetical effects.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Drive Electric Vermont Case Study

Currently in the United States, the heavy majority of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales have been in highly conducive, selected, metropolitan areas; opposed to more broad distribution across the country. The U.S. Department of Energy’s EV Everywhere Grand Challenge is looking carefully at the barriers and opportunities that exist to enable small and midsize communities to partake in the PEV market and benefit from the economic and environmental advantages of PEVs. In order to gain insight into these challenges and barriers, DOE selected a success story (i.e., Drive Electric Vermont) as the subject of this case study, as the state of Vermont is tied with Detroit, Michigan in having the highest percentage of 2014 (most recent complete data) PEV registrations for cold weather U.S. cities and has seen more than a sixfold increase in charging stations over the last three years. The overall objective of this case study was to use the lessons learned from Drive Electric Vermont to determine what activities are most effective at encouraging acquisitions of PEVs and deployment of charging infrastructure in small to midsize communities, prioritizing and sequencing their implementation, identifying robust means for extrapolation, and applying this understanding to other small to midsize communities across the nation. The Drive Electric Vermont Program was formed in 2012 with a goal of increasing the use of electrified transportation in Vermont through policy development, education and outreach, and infrastructure development. The Drive Electric Vermont Program can be broadly broken into four components: (1) strategic planning/leadership, (2) stakeholder/partnership development, (3) education and outreach, and (4) incentives. The early phases of the program focused heavily on strategic planning, and stakeholder and partnership development, followed by a transition to education and outreach activities, charging infrastructure development, and grant and incentive programs that support charging infrastructure deployment and PEV purchases. Future plans include an additional round of consumer/dealer PEV incentives, continuation of the marketing campaign, and utilization of consumer surveys to develop new campaign themes and to optimize information distribution channels. In Vermont, the number of PEVs grew from 88 in July 2012 to 1,113 in January 2016, with a high percentage of the PEVs being plug-in hybrids (i.e., 865) versus all electric vehicles (i.e., 248). The most popular PEVs are Toyota’s Prius Plug-in and Ford’s C-Max Energi, which make up a combined 48% of the total PEV ownership in the state. The PEVs are predominantly clustered in four counties: Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, and Chittenden. There is no evident correlation between community size and PEV penetration; however, over 70% of PEV owners are in communities of 1,000 to 10,000 people. On the other hand, there is a close correlation between where PEVs are registered and where they publically charge. The number of PEV charging stations in Vermont grew from 17 in January 2013 to 111 in January 2016, at a variety of charging venues, including retail, parking (short term and long term), workplace, dealerships, hotels, education, leisure, and hospitals. The vast majority of the charging venues contain Level 2 electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) solely or combined with Level 1 EVSE or direct current fast charging. The average power transferred per charging event for communities across Vermont ranged from 4.8 to 13.8 kWh for direct current fast charging and 1.0 to 11.9 kWh for and Level 2 EVSE. Over half the charging locations offer free charging. For those that do require payment, different pricing models are employed, including monthly memberships, hourly payment (where there is often a higher fee for the first hour followed by a lower hourly fee for the remaining hours), and energy use based on kWh drawn from the EVSE. There is no correlation between pricing models and community size and region, the strongest correlation is by network provider. Charging events across Vermont generally correlate with east-west bands of chargers (Figure ES-1) running from Burlington to Montpelier and in the area of Rutland.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Potential Avenues for Significant Biofuels Penetration in the U.S. Aviation Market

Industry associations have set goals to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase fuel efficiency. One focal area for reducing GHG emissions is in the use of aviation biofuel. This study examines assumptions under which the United States could see large production in aviation biofuel. Our results suggest that a high penetration (6 billion gallons) of aviation biofuels by 2030 could be possible, but factors around policy design (in the absence of high oil prices) contribute to the timing and magnitude of aviation biofuels production: 1) Incentives targeted towards jet fuel production such as financial incentives (e.g., producer tax credit, carbon tax) can be sufficient; 2) Investment in pre-commercial cellulosic technologies is needed to reduce the cost of production through learning-by-doing; 3) Reduction of investment risk through loan guarantees may allow production to ramp up more quickly through accelerating industry learning. In cases with high levels of incentives and investment in aviation biofuels, there could be a 25 percent reduction in overall GHG emissions from the aviation sector.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗