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NASA NTRS2013

Assessing the Impact of Pre-gpm Microwave Precipitation Observations in the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

The forthcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission will provide next generation precipitation observations from a constellation of satellites. Since precipitation by nature has large variability and low predictability at cloud-resolving scales, the impact of precipitation data on the skills of mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is largely affected by the characterization of background and observation errors and the representation of nonlinear cloud/precipitation physics in an NWP data assimilation system. We present a data impact study on the assimilation of precipitation-affected microwave (MW) radiances from a pre-GPM satellite constellation using the Goddard WRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (Goddard WRF-EDAS). A series of assimilation experiments are carried out in a Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model domain of 9 km resolution in western Europe. Sensitivities to observation error specifications, background error covariance estimated from ensemble forecasts with different ensemble sizes, and MW channel selections are examined through single-observation assimilation experiments. An empirical bias correction for precipitation-affected MW radiances is developed based on the statistics of radiance innovations in rainy areas. The data impact is assessed by full data assimilation cycling experiments for a storm event that occurred in France in September 2010. Results show that the assimilation of MW precipitation observations from a satellite constellation mimicking GPM has a positive impact on the accumulated rain forecasts verified with surface radar rain estimates. The case-study on a convective storm also reveals that the accuracy of ensemble-based background error covariance is limited by sampling errors and model errors such as precipitation displacement and unresolved convective scale instability.

microwave observations↗

NASA NTRS1973

Metrication study for large space telescope

Various approaches which could be taken in developing a metric-system design for the Large Space Telescope, considering potential penalties on development cost and time, commonality with other satellite programs, and contribution to national goals for conversion to the metric system of units were investigated. Information on the problems, potential approaches, and impacts of metrication was collected from published reports on previous aerospace-industry metrication-impact studies and through numerous telephone interviews. The recommended approach to LST metrication formulated in this study cells for new components and subsystems to be designed in metric-module dimensions, but U.S. customary practice is allowed where U.S. metric standards and metric components are not available or would be unsuitable. Electrical/electronic-system design, which is presently largely metric, is considered exempt from futher metrication. An important guideline is that metric design and fabrication should in no way compromise the effectiveness of the LST equipment.

Creswick, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Plasma Drag Hypervelocity Particle Accelerator (HYPER)

Current debris models are able to predict the growth of the space debris problem and suggest that spacecraft must employ armor or bumper shields for some orbital altitudes now and that the problem will become worse as a function of time. The practical upper limit to the velocity distribution is on the order of 40 km/s and is associated with the natural environment. The velocity distribution of the man-made component peaks at 9-10 km/s with maximum velocity in the 14-16 km/s range. Experience in space has verified that the "high probability of impact" particles are in the microgram to milligram range. These particles can have very significant effects on coatings, insulators, and thin metallic layers. The surface of thick materials becomes pitted and the local debris component is enhanced by ejecta from the impact events. In this paper, the HYPER facility is described which produces a reasonable simulation of the man-made space debris spectrum in a controlled environment. The facility capability is discussed in terms of drive geometry, energetics, velocity distribution, diagnostics, and projectile/debris loading. The facility has been used to study impact phenomena on Space Station Freedom's solar array structure, the calibration of space debris collectors, other solar array materials, potential structural materials for use in space, electrical breakdown in the space environment, and as a means of clarifying or duplicating the impact phenomena on surfaces which have been exposed in space.

Best, Steve R.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Impact experimentation and the microgravity environment: An overview

Impact is an ubiquitous physical process in the solar system. It occurs on all solid bodies and operates over a spectrum of scales, influencing geologic processes ranging from accretion, the early evolution of planetary bodies, the petrogenetic and spatial relations of lunar samples, the surface characteristics and interpretation of spectral data of asteroidal bodies, to the nature of some meteorites. Understanding impact phenomena is therefore paramount in constraining and underpinning a large number of research efforts into fundamental planetary geology. Gravity is an important parameter in impact processes. The physical environment offered by the Space Station represents an unique opportunity to extend the experimental aspect of impact studies into the microgravity (less than 1 g) regime. Through the use of free floating targets, it may be possible to explore in detail phenomena associated with the collision of bodies. Such experiments can address questions regarding early and late accretional processes, catastrophic disruption and asteroidal evolution, as well as the effects of large impacts on the momentum and spin of the target bodies. The last question is of considerable topical interest with respect to the hypothesized origin of the moon by a Mars-sized impact on Earth.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Designing space vehicle shields for meteoroid protection - A new analysis

A new analysis for designing dual-layer shields is presented which is based on energy and momentum conservation, fundamental electromagnetic radiation physics, and the observation of results of extensive experimental impact studies performed at relatively low velocities (near 7 km/s). An important finding is that most of the kinetic energy of a meteoroid striking a dual-layer shield is expended as radiation at the stagnation zone on the face plate of the underlying structure. Systematic procedures for evaluating the response of shield designs for a given impact threat are described. It is noted that similar applications of the analysis can be employed to support a mathematically rigorous procedure for optimum shield design.

Swift, H. F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Charging of interplanetary grains

The objective of this program is to quantify, by laboratory experiments, the charging of ices and other insulators subject to irradiation with electrons, ions and ultraviolet photons and to model special conditions based on the data. The system and conditions to be studied are those relevant for charging of dust in magnetospheric plasmas. The measurements are supplemented by computer simulations of charging or grains under a variety of conditions. Our work for this period involved experiments on water ice, improved models of charging of ice grains for Saturn's E-ring, and the construction of apparatus for electron impact studies and measurements of electron energy distributions.

Baragiola, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Hypervelocity impact facility for simulating materials exposure to impact by space debris

As a result of man's venturing into space, the local debris contributed by his presence exceeds, at some orbital altitudes, that of the natural component. Man's contribution ranges from fuel residue to large derelect satellites that weigh many kilograms. Current debris models are able to predict the growth of the problem and suggest that spacecraft must employ armor or bumper shields for some orbital altitudes now, and that, the problem will become worse as a function of time. The practical upper limit to the velocity distribution is on the order of 40 km/s and is associated with the natural environment. The maximum velocity of the man-made component is in the 14-16 km/s range. The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has verified that the 'high probability of impact' particles are in the microgram to milligram range. These particles can have significant effects on coatings, insulators, and thin metallic layers. The surface of thick materials becomes pitted and the local debris component is enhanced by ejecta from the debris spectrum in a controlled environment. The facility capability is discussed in terms of drive geometry, energetics, velocity distribution, diagnostics, and projectile/debris loading. The facility is currently being used to study impact phenomena on Space Station Freedom's solar array structure, other solar array materials, potential structural materials for use in the station, electrical breakdown in the space environment, and as a means of clarifying or duplicating the impact phenomena on the LDEF surfaces. The results of these experiments are described in terms of the mass/velocity distribution incident on selected samples, crater dynamics, and sample geometry.

Rose, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Impact of geostationary satellite water vapor channel data on weather analysis and forecasting

Preliminary results from NWP impact studies are indicating that upper-tropospheric wind information provided by tracking motions in sequences of geostationary satellite water vapor imagery can positively influence forecasts on regional scales, and possibly on global scales as well. The data are complimentary to cloud-tracked winds by providing data in cloud-free regions, as well as comparable in quality. First results from GOES-8 winds are encouraging, and further efforts and model impacts will be directed towards optimizing these data in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Assuming successful launches of GOES-J and GMS-5 satellites in 1995, high quality and resolution water vapor imagers will be available to provide nearly complete global upper-tropospheric wind coverage.

Velden, Christopher S.↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Importance of Internal Climate Variability in Climate Impact Projections

Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to the role of internal variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may lead to underestimating the socioeconomic costs of climate change. Using large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models with a total of 414 model runs, we partition the climate uncertainty in classic dose–response models relating county-level corn yield, mortality, and per-capita gross domestic product to temperature in the continental United States. The partitioning of uncertainty depends on the time frame of projection, the impact model, and the geographic region. Internal variability represents more than 50% of the total climate uncertainty in certain projections, including mortality projections for the early 21st century, although its relative influence decreases over time. We recommend including uncertainty due to internal variability for many projections of temperature-driven impacts, including early-century and midcentury projections, projections in regions with high internal variability such as the Upper Midwest United States, and impacts driven by nonlinear relationships.

climate impacts↗

NASA NTRS1999

A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid Data Assimilation System for Regional Studies and Applications

The variable resolution stretched grid (SG) version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Data Assimilation System (DAS) incorporating the GEOS SG-GCM, has been developed and tested. The area/region of interest used in experiments is a rectangle over the U.S. with -60 km horizontal resolution and 70 layers extending from the surface to 0.1 hPa. The forecast error statistics has been reassessed for finer regional resolution. The experiments are performed for winter and summer seasons. The SG-GCM and SG-DAS experiments show that a definite down-scaling takes place over the area of interest. The SG-DAS is capable of reproducing regional mesoscale patterns and diagnostics that are not produced by coarser uniform resolution runs. The SG-DAS fields and diagnostics are used for regional forecasting, new instrument impact studies, and for validation of regional climate simulation experiments.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

crop modeling↗

NASA NTRS2011

Current Technology Development Efforts on the International X-Ray Observatory

The International X-ray Observatory (IXO) is a collaboration between NASA, ESA, and JAXA which is under study for launch in 2021. IXO will be a large 6600 kilogram Great Observatory-class mission which will build upon the legacies of the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray observatories. There is an extensive ongoing effort to raise the technology readiness level of the X-ray mirror from TRL 3 to TRL 6 in the next decade. Improvements have recently been made in the area of positioning and bonding mirrors on the nanometer scale and developing metals and composites with a matching coefficient of thermal expansion to the glass X-ray mirrors. On the mission systems side, the NASA reference design has been through a preliminary coupled loads analysis and a STOP analysis of the flight mirror assembly has been initiated. An impact study was performed comparing launching IXO on an Ariane 5 or a U.S. EELV. This paper will provide a snapshot of NASA's current observatory configuration and summarize the progress of these various technology and design efforts.

Robinson, David↗

NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors In the GMAO GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation System

The WMO and THORPEX co-sponsored fifth Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on Numerical Weather Prediction will be organized by the Expert Team on the Evolution of the Global Observing System in Sedona, Arizona, United States, from 22 to 25 May 2012. Participants are expected to come from all the major NWP centres which are active in the area of impact studies. The workshop will be conducted in English. As for the first four workshops it is planned to produce a workshop report to be published as a WMO Technical Report that will include the papers submitted by the participants. The previous four workshops in this series took place in Geneva {April 1997), Toulouse (March 2000), Alpbach (March 2004) and Geneva (May 2008). Results from Observing System Experiments (OSEs), both with global and regional aspects were presented and conclusions were drawn concerning the contributions of the various components of the observing system to the large scale forecast skill at short and medium range (Workshop Proceedings were published as WMO World Weather Watch Technical Reports TD No. 868, 1034, 1228 and 1450). Since then, some significant changes and developments have affected the global observing system and more efforts have been devoted to meso-scale observing and assimilation systems. There has also been a trend toward using techniques other than OSEs to document data impact, such as adjoint-based sensitivity to observations or ensemble-based sensitivity. Field experiments have been carried out, in particular through the THORPEX project, and the use of targeted data has been assessed.

Gelaro, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS2019

Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Folberth, Christian↗

NASA NTRS1985

A preliminary report on the study of the impact sites and particles of the solar maximum satellite thermal blanket

A preliminary study of the work on examination of the impact pits in, or penetrations through, the thermal blankets of the Solar Maximum Satellite is presented. The three largest pieces of the thermal blanket were optically scanned with a total surface area of about one half square meter. Over 1500 impact sites of all sizes, including 432 impacts larger than 40 microns in diameter, have been documented. Craters larger in diameter than about 100 microns found on the 75 micron thick Kapton first sheet of the main electronics box blanket are actually holes and constitute perforations through the blanket. A summary of the impact pit population that were found is given. The chemical study of these craters is only in the initial stages, with only about 250 chemical spectra of particles observed in or around impact pits or in the debris pattern being recorded.

Zook, H. A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Extravehicular Suit Impact Load Attenuation Study for Use in Astronaut Bone Fracture Prediction

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fracture of the proximal femur is a traumatic injury that would likely result in loss of mission if it were to happen during spaceflight. The low gravity exposure causes decreases in bone mineral density which heightens the concern. Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center have quantified bone fracture probability during spaceflight with a probabilistic model. It was assumed that a pressurized extravehicular activity (EVA) suit would attenuate load during a fall, but no supporting data was available. The suit impact load attenuation study was performed to collect analogous data. METHODS: A pressurized EVA suit analog test bed was used to study how the offset, defined as the gap between the suit and the astronaut s body, impact load magnitude and suit operating pressure affects the attenuation of impact load. The attenuation data was incorporated into the probabilistic model of bone fracture as a function of these factors, replacing a load attenuation value based on commercial hip protectors. RESULTS: Load attenuation was more dependent on offset than on pressurization or load magnitude, especially at small offsets. Load attenuation factors for offsets between 0.1 - 1.5 cm were 0.69 +/- 0.15, 0.49 +/- 0.22 and 0.35 +/- 0.18 for mean impact forces of 4827, 6400 and 8467 N, respectively. Load attenuation factors for offsets of 2.8 - 5.3 cm were 0.93 +/- 0.2, 0.94 +/- 0.1 and 0.84 +/- 0.5, for the same mean impact forces. Reductions were observed in the 95th percentile confidence interval of the bone fracture probability predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction in uncertainty and improved confidence in bone fracture predictions increased the fidelity and credibility of the fracture risk model and its benefit to mission design and operational decisions.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Simple Postflight Measure of Postural Atania in Astronauts

Astronauts returning from space flight universally present with postural ataxia. Throughout the Space Shuttle Program, measurement of ataxia has concentrated on sway in the anterior-posterior (AP) plane. The current investigation, as a part of a larger functional study, concentrated on characterizing postural instability using dynamic stabilographic sway patterns in both the AP and medial-lateral (ML) planes. To accomplish this goal, six astronauts from short-duration (Shuttle) and three from long-duration (ISS) flights were required to recover from a simulated fall. Subjects with eyes open, wearing running shoes lay prone on the floor for 2 minutes and then quickly stood up, maintained a quiet stance for 3 minutes, arms relaxed along the side of the body, and feet comfortably placed on the force plate. Crewmembers were tested twice before flight, on landing day (Shuttle only), and 1, 6, and 30 days after flight. Anterior-posterior and ML center-of-pressure (COP) coordinates were calculated from the ground reaction forces collected at 500 Hz. The 3-minute quiet stance trial was broken into three 1-minute segments for stabilogram diffusion analysis. A mean sway speed (rate of change of COP displacement) was also calculated as an additional postural stability parameter. While there was considerable variation, most of crewmembers tested exhibited increased stochastic activity evidenced by larger short-term COP diffusion coefficients postflight in both the AP and ML planes, suggesting significant changes in postural control mechanisms, particularly control of lower limb muscle function. As expected, postural instability of ISS astronauts on the first day postflight was similar to that of Shuttle crewmembers on landing day. Recoveries of stochastic activity and mean sway speed to baseline levels were typically observed by the 30th day postflight for both long-duration and short-duration crewmembers. Dynamic postural stability characteristics obtained in this low-impact study complement the data measured with computerized dynamic posturography.

Reschke, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Postflight Quiet Stance Stability of Astronauts Following Recovery From a Simulated Fall

INTRODUCTION: Astronauts returning from space flight universally present with postural ataxia. Throughout the Space Shuttle Program, measurement of ataxia has concentrated on sway in the anterior-posterior plane. Implementation of an interdisciplinary pre- and postflight study (Functional Task Test, FTT) designed to evaluate both astronaut postflight functional performance and related physiological changes has allowed the investigation of postural instability by characterizing dynamic stabilographic sway patterns. METHODS: Six astronauts from short-duration (Shuttle) and three from long-duration (ISS) flights were required to recover from a simulated fall. Subjects with eyes open, wearing running shoes lay prone on the floor for 2 minutes and then quickly stood up, maintained a quiet stance for 3 minutes, arms relaxed along the side of the body, and feet comfortably placed on the force plate. Crewmembers were tested twice before flight, on landing day (Shuttle only), and 1, 6, and 30 days after flight. Anterior-posterior (AP) and medial-lateral (ML) center-of-pressure (COP) coordinates were calculated from the ground reaction forces collected at 500 Hz. The 3-minute quiet stance trial was broken into three 1-minute segments for stabilogram diffusion analysis. A mean sway speed (rate of change of COP displacement) was also calculated as an additional postural stability parameter. RESULTS/CONCLUSION: While there was considerable variation, most of crewmembers tested exhibited increased stochastic activity evidenced by larger short-term COP diffusion coefficients postflight in both the AP and ML planes, suggesting significant changes in postural control mechanisms, particularly control of lower limb muscle function. As expected, postural instability of ISS astronauts on the first day postflight was similar to that of Shuttle crewmembers on landing day. Recoveries of stochastic activity and mean sway speed to baseline levels were typically observed by the 30th day postflight for both long-duration and short-duration crewmembers. Dynamic postural stability characteristics obtained in this low-impact study complement the data measured with computerized dynamic posturography.

Reschke, M. F.↗