UniverseMachine: Predicting Galaxy Star Formation over Seven Decades of Halo Mass with Zoom-in Simulations
In this work, we apply the empirical galaxy–halo connection model UniverseMachine to dark-matter-only zoom-in simulations of isolated Milky Way (MW)–mass halos, along with their parent cosmological simulations. This application extends UniverseMachine predictions into the ultrafaint dwarf galaxy regime (10 2 M ⊙ ≤ M * ≤ 10 5 M ⊙) and yields a well-resolved stellar mass–halo mass (SMHM) relation over the peak halo mass range of 10 8 –10 15 M ⊙. The extensive dynamic range provided by the zoom-in simulations allows us to assess specific aspects of dwarf galaxy evolution predicted by UniverseMachine. In particular, although UniverseMachine is not constrained for dwarf galaxies with M * ≲ 10 8 M ⊙, our predicted SMHM relation is consistent with that inferred for MW satellite galaxies at z = 0 using abundance matching. However, UniverseMachine predicts that nearly all galaxies are actively star-forming below M * ~ 10 7 M ⊙ and that these systems typically form more than half of their stars at z ≲ 4, which is discrepant with the star formation histories of Local Group dwarf galaxies that favor early quenching.