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NASA NTRS1989

Prediction of turbine rotor-stator interaction using Navier-Stokes methods

Flows in turbomachinery are generally complex and do not easily lend themselves to numerical computation. The flows are three-dimensional and inherently unsteady. Complicated blade geometries and flow phenomena such as separation and periodic transition from laminar to turbulent flow add to the numerical complexity. Nevertheless, the accurate numerical analysis of such flows is a problem of considerable interest and practical importance to the turbomachinery community. Much of the early work in turbomachinery flow prediction focussed on airfoil cascades. While such analyses of flows in isolated airfoil rows have helped improve understanding of the flow phenomena and have gained widespread acceptance in the industrial community as a design tool, they do not yield any information regarding the unsteady effects arising out of rotor-stator aerodynamic interaction. These interaction effects become increasingly important as the distance between successive stator and rotor rows is decreased. Thus, the need exists for analytical tools that treat the rotor and stator airfoils as a system and provide information regarding the magnitude and the impact of the unsteady effects. The focus a three-dimensional, time-accurate, thin-layer Navier-Stokes code that was recently developed to study rotor-stator interaction problems. A system of patched and overlaid grids that move relative to each other is used to discretize the flow field and the governing equations are integrated using a third-order upwind scheme set in an iterative, implicit framework. The code was used to simulate subsonic flow through an axial turbine configuration for which considerable experimental data exists. Grid refinement studies were also conducted as part of the code validation process. The current status of the research, along with planned future directions, are also discussed.

Madavan, Nateri K.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Integrated Modeling of Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Land Processes at Satellite-Resolved Scales

In this talk, I will present recent results from a project led at NASA/GSFC, in collaboration with NASA/MSFC and JHU, focused on the development and application of an observation-driven integrated modeling system that represents aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes at satellite-resolved scales. The project, known as the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF), is funded by NASA's Modeling and Analysis Program, and leverages prior investments from the Air Force Weather Agency and NASA's Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO). We define "satellite-resolved" scales as being within a typical mesoscale atmospheric modeling grid (roughly 1-25 km), although this work is designed to bridge the continuum between local (microscale), regional (mesoscale) and global (synoptic) processes. NU-WRF is a superset of the standard NCAR Advanced Research WRF model, achieved by fully integrating the GSFC Land Information System (LIS, already coupled to WRF), the WRF/Chem enabled version of the Goddard Chemistry Aerosols Radiation Transport (GOCART) model, the Goddard Satellite Data Simulation Unit (SDSU), and boundary/initial condition preprocessors for MERRA and GEOS-5 into a single software release (with source code available by agreement with NASA/GSFC). I will show examples where the full coupling between aerosol, cloud, precipitation and land processes is critical for predicting local, regional, and global water and energy cycles, including some high-impact phenomena such as floods, hurricanes, mesoscale convective systems, droughts, and monsoons.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗

NASA NTRS2016

Assimilation of Gridded Terrestrial Water Storage Observations from GRACE into a Land Surface Model

Observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 km(sup 2) at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This work proposes a variant of existing ensemble-based GRACE-TWS data assimilation schemes. The new algorithm differs in how the analysis increments are computed and applied. Existing schemes correlate the uncertainty in the modeled monthly TWS estimates with errors in the soil moisture profile state variables at a single instant in the month and then apply the increment either at the end of the month or gradually throughout the month. The proposed new scheme first computes increments for each day of the month and then applies the average of those increments at the beginning of the month. The new scheme therefore better reflects submonthly variations in TWS errors. The new and existing schemes are investigated here using gridded GRACE-TWS observations. The assimilation results are validated at the monthly time scale, using in situ measurements of groundwater depth and soil moisture across the U.S. The new assimilation scheme yields improved (although not in a statistically significant sense) skill metrics for groundwater compared to the open-loop (no assimilation) simulations and compared to the existing assimilation schemes. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture, which have a shorter memory and receive smaller increments from TWS assimilation than groundwater. These results motivate future efforts to combine GRACE-TWS observations with observations that are more sensitive to surface soil moisture, such as L-band brightness temperature observations from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) or Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Finally, we demonstrate that the scaling parameters that are applied to the GRACE observations prior to assimilation should be consistent with the land surface model that is used within the assimilation system.

GRACE↗

NASA NTRS2021

Strong Regional Influence of Climatic Forcing Datasets on Global Crop Model Ensembles

We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Results show that CFDs demonstrate mean biases and differences in the probability of extreme events, with larger uncertainty around extreme precipitation and in regions where observational data for climate and crop systems are scarce. Countries where simulations correlate highly with reported FAO national production anomalies tend to have high correlations across most CFDs, whose influence we isolate using multi-GGCM ensembles for each CFD. Correlations compare favorably with the climate signal detected in other studies, although production in many countries is not primarily climate-limited (particularly for rice). Bias-adjusted CFDs most often were among the highest model-observation correlations, although all CFDs produced the highest correlation in at least one top-producing country. Analysis of larger multi-CFD-multi-GGCM ensembles (up to 91 members) shows benefits over the use of smaller subset of models in some regions and farming systems, although bigger is not always better. Our analysis suggests that global assessments should prioritize ensembles based on multiple crop models over multiple CFDs as long as a top-performing CFD is utilized for the focus region.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement↗

NASA NTRS2013

Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real ]time configuration of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the Noah land surface model (LSM). Output from the SPoRT ]LIS run is used to initialize land surface variables for local modeling applications at select National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices, and can be displayed in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring. The SPoRT ]LIS is run over a domain covering the southern and eastern United States, fully nested within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV precipitation analysis grid, which provides precipitation forcing to the offline LIS ]Noah runs. The SPoRT Center seeks to expand the real ]time LIS domain to the entire Continental U.S. (CONUS); however, geographical limitations with the Stage IV analysis product have inhibited this expansion. Therefore, a goal of this study is to test alternative precipitation forcing datasets that can enable the LIS expansion by improving upon the current geographical limitations of the Stage IV product. The four precipitation forcing datasets that are inter ]compared on a 4 ]km resolution CONUS domain include the Stage IV, an experimental GOES quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from NESDIS/STAR, the National Mosaic and QPE (NMQ) product from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS ]2) analyses. The NLDAS ]2 dataset is used as the control run, with each of the other three datasets considered experimental runs compared against the control. The regional strengths, weaknesses, and biases of each precipitation analysis are identified relative to the NLDAS ]2 control in terms of accumulated precipitation pattern and amount, and the impacts on the subsequent LSM spin ]up simulations. The ultimate goal is to identify an alternative precipitation forcing dataset that can best support an expansion of the real ]time SPoRT ]LIS to a domain covering the entire CONUS.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Midwest Water Resources II: Evaluating Evapotranspiration with NASA Earth Observations and In Situ Observations to Understand Water Balance in Midwest Agriculture

Seasonal water variability in the midwestern United States extensively affects the agricultural community, as it impacts irrigation schedules, growing seasons, and overall ecosystem function. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical climatic variable in the water cycle and is used to evaluate spatiotemporal trends in drought and flood conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Midwest Climate Hub, the Minnesota Department of Agriculture, the Illinois State Water Survey, and Michigan State University to compare remotely sensed ET products with in situ observations from January 2001 through December 2020. Remotely sensed actual ET (aET) data were sourced from NASA’s Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and reference ET (refET) data were derived from the Gridded Surface Meteorological (gridMET) dataset. For in situ comparison, aET data were downloaded from the AmeriFlux database while refET data were collected from the Illinois Climate Network and Michigan State University’s Enviro-weather database. For a holistic assessment of ET, this project generated comparisons between remotely sensed and in situ observations, calculated descriptive statistics for validation between refET datasets, and spatially produced statistical validation maps regarding in situ sites. The temporal and spatial gaps of AmeriFlux data limited aET analysis. This comparative assessment of ET products across the Midwest can be used by project partners to assess regional water trends and guide future land management decisions.

Addison Pletcher↗

NASA NTRS2014

Impact of Satellite Viewing-Swath Width on Global and Regional Aerosol Optical Thickness Statistics and Trends

We use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product to assess the impact of reduced swath width on global and regional AOT statistics and trends. Alongtrack and across-track sampling strategies are employed, in which the full MODIS data set is sub-sampled with various narrow-swath (approximately 400-800 km) and single pixel width (approximately 10 km) configurations. Although view-angle artifacts in the MODIS AOT retrieval confound direct comparisons between averages derived from different sub-samples, careful analysis shows that with many portions of the Earth essentially unobserved, spatial sampling introduces uncertainty in the derived seasonal-regional mean AOT. These AOT spatial sampling artifacts comprise up to 60%of the full-swath AOT value under moderate aerosol loading, and can be as large as 0.1 in some regions under high aerosol loading. Compared to full-swath observations, narrower swath and single pixel width sampling exhibits a reduced ability to detect AOT trends with statistical significance. On the other hand, estimates of the global, annual mean AOT do not vary significantly from the full-swath values as spatial sampling is reduced. Aggregation of the MODIS data at coarse grid scales (10 deg) shows consistency in the aerosol trends across sampling strategies, with increased statistical confidence, but quantitative errors in the derived trends are found even for the full-swath data when compared to high spatial resolution (0.5 deg) aggregations. Using results of a model-derived aerosol reanalysis, we find consistency in our conclusions about a seasonal-regional spatial sampling artifact in AOT Furthermore, the model shows that reduced spatial sampling can amount to uncertainty in computed shortwave top-ofatmosphere aerosol radiative forcing of 2-3 W m(sup−2). These artifacts are lower bounds, as possibly other unconsidered sampling strategies would perform less well. These results suggest that future aerosol satellite missions having significantly less than full-swath viewing are unlikely to sample the true AOT distribution well enough to obtain the statistics needed to reduce uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing of climate.

remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS2020

Assessing the Impacts of Two Averaging Methods on AIRS Level 3 Monthly Products and Multi-Year Monthly Means

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) onboard NASA’s Aqua satellite provides more than 16 years of data. Its monthly gridded (Level 3) product has been widely used for climate research and applications. Since counts of successful soundings in a grid cell are used to derive monthly averages, this “Averaged By Observations (ABO)” approach effectively gives equal importance to all participating soundings within a month. It is conceivable, then, that days with more observations due to day-to-day orbit shift and regimes with better retrieval skills, will contribute disproportionately to the monthly average within a cell. Alternatively, the AIRS Level 3 monthly product can be produced through an "Averaged By Days (ABD)” approach, where the monthly mean in a grid cell is a simple average of the daily means. The effects of these averaging methods on the AIRS version 6 monthly product are assessed quantitatively using temperature and water vapor at surface and 500hPa. The ABO method results in a warmer (slightly colder) global mean temperature at surface (500hPa) and a drier global mean water vapor than ABD method. The AIRS multi-year monthly mean temperature and water vapor from both methods are also compared with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications – 2 (MERRA-2) product and evaluated with a simulation experiment, indicating the ABD method has less error and is more closely correlated with MERRA-2. In summary, the ABD method is recommended for future versions of the AIRS Level 3 monthly product and more data services supporting Level 3 aggregation are needed.

AIRS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Present and Future Climate Services Based on NASA Data for the Energy, Agricultural, and Sustainable Buildings Communities

NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the renewable energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data at various temporal levels from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). Data users can access these data either through an intuitive data viewer, image services fully integrable with GIS analysis, connections in the cloud through an Amazon Web Services S3 Bucket, or fully customizable access through an API. Data provided by POWER has been successfully used by decision makers to support actions that address climate change. For example, POWER data has been used to remotely monitor solar array fields and integrated in a sizing tool for off-grid solar and storage systems. POWER data has also been coupled with key building decision tools to support design and retrofitting of building energy systems for energy efficiency and reduction of greenhouse gases. POWER is now developing climate services to provide time series of the projected future evolution of key quantities that interest our users, such as heating/cooling degree days, temperature, wind speed, and downwelling solar flux. We demonstrate the potential of the new climate services by presenting here a range of possible future changes in these quantities at different NASA centers across the continental United States. These data services are based on downscaled climate model data from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data set. We highlight the important insights that new climate services can provide. Our climate services will help our user communities quantify the impacts of climate change to support their key decisions in planning for the future, both inside and outside the Federal Government, especially for decisions in renewable energy and in building heating and cooling.

Bradley Hegyi↗

NASA NTRS1998

Local Data Integration in East Central Florida Using the ARPS Data Analysis System

This paper describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) efforts to configure, implement, and test a version of the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS; Brewster 1996) that assimilates all available data within 250 km of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Eastern Range at Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The objective for running a Local Data Integration System (LDIS) such as ADAS is to generate products which may enhance weather nowcasts and short-range (less than 6 h) forecasts issued in support of ground and aerospace operations at KSC/CCAS. A LDIS such as ADAS has the potential to provide added value because it combines observational data to produce gridded analyses of temperature, wind, and moisture (including clouds) and diagnostic quantities such as vorticity, divergence, etc. at specified temporal and spatial resolutions. In this regard, a LDTS along with suitable visualization tools may provide users with a ignore complete and comprehensive understanding of evolving weather than could be developed by individually examining the disparate data sets over the same area and time. The AMU implemented a working prototype of the ADAS which does not run in real-time. Instead, the AMU is evaluating ADAS through post-analyses of weather events for a warm and cool season case. The case studies were chosen to investigate the capabilities and limitations of a LDIS such as ADAS including the impact of non-incorporation of specific data sources on the utility of the subsequent analyses.

Case, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) 4d-Var and its Adjoint-based Tools

The fifth generation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Data Assimilation System (DAS) is a 3d-var system that uses the Grid-point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system developed in collaboration with NCEP, and a general circulation model developed at Goddard, that includes the finite-volume hydrodynamics of GEOS-4 wrapped in the Earth System Modeling Framework and physical packages tuned to provide a reliable hydrological cycle for the integration of the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). This MERRA system is essentially complete and the next generation GEOS is under intense development. A prototype next generation system is now complete and has been producing preliminary results. This prototype system replaces the GSI-based Incremental Analysis Update procedure with a GSI-based 4d-var which uses the adjoint of the finite-volume hydrodynamics of GEOS-4 together with a vertical diffusing scheme for simplified physics. As part of this development we have kept the GEOS-5 IAU procedure as an option and have added the capability to experiment with a First Guess at the Appropriate Time (FGAT) procedure, thus allowing for at least three modes of running the data assimilation experiments. The prototype system is a large extension of GEOS-5 as it also includes various adjoint-based tools, namely, a forecast sensitivity tool, a singular vector tool, and an observation impact tool, that combines the model sensitivity tool with a GSI-based adjoint tool. These features bring the global data assimilation effort at Goddard up to date with technologies used in data assimilation systems at major meteorological centers elsewhere. Various aspects of the next generation GEOS will be discussed during the presentation at the Workshop, and preliminary results will illustrate the discussion.

Todling, Ricardo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Neural Network Parametrization of Volumetric Cloud Fraction Profiles Using Satellite Observations and MERRA-2 Reanalysis Meteorological Data

Clouds play a crucial role in regulating the hydrologic cycle and Earth's radiative energy budget, yet they are often poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs). This study applies deep machine learning techniques to develop a physical parameterization of volumetric cloud fraction (VCF), the fraction of a 3-D grid volume occupied by clouds using satellite lidar-radar measurements. The neural network (NN) captures the complicated relationships between observed VCF profiles and collocated meteorological variables from MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Our results show that the NN model, particularly a sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (LSTM) network with a sixfactor loss function, effectively learns the underlying cloud physical processes. The NN model outperforms MERRA-2 reanalysis in representing low-level clouds in tropical and subtropical regions and low- and middle-level clouds over midlatitude storm-track regions, and also improves VCF histograms. These improvements are reflected in the vertical distributions of zonally, meridionally, and globally averaged VCFs, geographic distributions of low-, middle-, and high-level clouds, and seasonal variations in monthly-mean VCF. Furthermore, the NN predictions effectively capture the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects and other interannual variations. The NN parameterization is further evaluated through a sensitivity analysis, in which a single predictor is perturbed at a time. This reveals that relative humidity (RH) is the dominant factor influencing variations in globally averaged VCF at low and middle altitudes, followed by temperature. At higher altitudes, temperature becomes the primary driver of VCF through its effect on RH. Changes in wind components had minimal impact on globally averaged VCF.

Shan Zeng↗

NASA NTRS1997

MFLOP to GFLOP: The Impact on High Fidelity Based Computational Aeroelasticity

Aeroelasticity which involves strong coupling of fluids, structures and controls is an important element in designing an aircraft. Computational aeroelasticity using low fidelity methods such as the linear aerodynamic flow equations coupled with the modal structural equations are well advanced. Though these low fidelity approaches are computationally less intensive, they are not adequate for the analysis of modern aircraft which can experience complex flow/structure interactions. Even at moderate angles of attack supersonic aircraft can experience vortex induced aeroelastic oscillations. Near transonic speeds buffet associated structural oscillations are possible. Aircraft flying in transonic regime may experience a dip in the flutter speed. For accurate aeroelastic computations at these complex fluid/structure interaction situations, high fidelity equations such as the Navier-Stokes for fluids and the finite-elements for structures are needed. Computations using these high fidelity equations require large computational resources both in memory and speed. Current conventional supercomputers have reached their limitations both in memory and speed. As a result, parallel computers have evolved to overco me the limitations of conventional computers. This paper will address the transition that is taking place in computational aeroelasticity from conventional computers to parallel computers. The paper will address special techniques needed to take advantage of the architecture of new parallel computers. Results will be illustrated from computations made on iPSC/860 and IBM SP2 computer by using ENSAERO code that directly couples the Euler/Navier-Stokes flow equations with high resolution finite-element structural equations. Modifications required in both fluids and structural solvers in order to run efficiently on parallel computers will be discussed. Implementation of moving grids and fluid/structural interface on parallel computers will be discussed.

Guruswamy, Guru P.↗

NASA NTRS2019

FUN3D and USM3D Analysis of the Propulsion Aerodynamic Workshop 2018 S-Duct Test Case

This work presents the results of Fun3D and USM3D analyses that were performed for the 4th AIAA Propulsion Aerodynamics Workshop (PAW). The PAW workshop is separated into three sections that focus on internal duct flows, nozzle flows and a special topic. This paper focuses on the internal duct flow section of PAW04 while an accompanying paper discusses the analyses performed for the nozzle portion. For the internal duct flow section, the PAW04 participants were provided with the two configurations consisting of an S-duct with and without aerodynamic interface plane (AIP) rake legs modeled. The participants were asked to perform a grid refinement study as well as a turbulence model study for the configuration with the rake legs. The analyses discussed here were performed on custom grids developed under the guidelines of the workshop. Additionally, the paper discusses the development and use of flow controllers for matching the desired flow characteristics. The results show that both solvers do well for predicting internal flow characteristics of the S-duct based on direct comparison with the experimental data. However, the CFD-to-CFD comparison proved to be more challenging due to the localized occurrence of supersonic flow near the rake legs when using the mass flow controller. A turbulence model study was performed to compare the two-equation SST model to the SA-QCR model. The results show that although the turbulence model does affect the solution, it makes a minimal impact on pressure recovery and inlet distortion intensity for this case. Suggestions for future workshops include gridding guidelines similar to those employed for the Drag Prediction Workshop series for the grid refinement study and a time accuracy study.

Carter, Melissa B.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Use Of EOS-AURA Observation In The MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Meteorological reanalyses provide multi-year gridded datasets that describe the evolution of the atmosphere. Such products use a data assimilation system, comprising of an atmospheric model, a broad suite of observations, and an analysis system that optimally combines the model forecast with the observations, using an algorithm that includes information about model and data accuracy. The mixture of observations is of central importance to the quality of the assimilated datasets. The Modern-era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) included constraints on the thermal structure of the middle atmosphere from nadir sounders on the NOAA polar-orbiting platforms (Stratospheric Sounding Units and Advanced Microwave Sounding Units). These instruments have peak sensitivities that occur well below the stratopause. As such, the radiance measurements do not provide strong constraints on stratopause temperature. The new MERRA-2 reanalysis is using EOS-MLS temperature retrievals after they are available: it will be demonstrated that these data lead to a more realistic stratopause structure in MERRA-2 than in MERRA. Similarly, the work demonstrates the improvements in lower stratospheric ozone in MERRA-2 than in MERRA, for the period when EOS-MLS ozone data are assimilated. This improvement occurs because of the ozone profile information offered by MLS in the low stratosphere, in contrast to the SBUV/2 data used for the rest of MERRA-2. The impacts of choosing to use the EOS-MLS datasets are discussed in context of the continuity of the data record in MERRA- 2.

Meteorological↗

NASA NTRS2016

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗

NASA NTRS2019

Lightning Strike Distance Distribution Beyond a Preexisting Lightning Area

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) asked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to review the 30-year-old, lightning stand-off distances of 5 nautical miles (nmi) for applicability to today's operations. This was based on the realization that previous lightning strike distance studies did not match how 45 WS issues lightning warnings (Roeder, 2008). The previous lightning distance studies were from the point of origin of the lightning or the average starting location that would tend to be in the core of the thunderstorm. However, the 45 WS issues lightning warnings based on the edge of a preexisting lightning area. Before beginning the AMU project, it took several years to develop a method to calculate a distance distribution beyond a preexisting area (Roeder, 2015). The AMU pulled Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) sensor data from 1/1/2013 to 12/31/2013. This dataset consisted of 37 million individual source data points from the LDAR sensors. Only sources within 50 km north, south, east or west of the LDAR grid center were included in the dataset. This limited the use of LDAR data to that with the greatest accuracy of source detection and increased data processing. Points were grouped into flashes based on spatial and temporal criteria. Based on the sensitivity analysis the AMU performed on the flash clustering algorithm, a time value of 0.3 seconds was found to model flashes adequately. Distance parameters were tested from 1,500 to 7,500 meters (m) in 500 m increments. Distance parameters of both 3,000 m and 4,000 m produced results in the plotting tool that were most representative of the physical behavior of lightning. Thus statistics were gathered for the most representative of these spatial and temporal criteria on the flash size and the polygon expansion distance in order to find the correct data distributions. The best fit curves for the LDAR polygon expansion frequency vs. distances for both the 3 kilometer (km) and 4 km distance threshold values were exponential decay functions and had R2 values of > 0.998, indicating good model fits. The equations of the best fit curves were then used to calculate a desired safety radius of 4 nmi for either 3 km or 4 km distance threshold criteria. The AMU analysis concludes the safe reduction of the 5 nmi lightning warning circles to 4 nmi should improve the operational impact by 36% if based on distance from the center of the property area being protected. If based on the edge of the property being protected, then the reduction is 4.5 nmi to 4 nmi and the operational impact is decreased by 21%. For the 6 nmi lightning warning circles, the recommended 4 nmi stand-off distance will result in a safe reduction of operational impact of 31% if based on the center of the area being protected, or 16% if based on the edge of the property.

Flash clustering algorithm↗

NASA NTRS2013

Multi-Dimensional Damage Detection for Surfaces and Structures

Current designs for inflatable or semi-rigidized structures for habitats and space applications use a multiple-layer construction, alternating thin layers with thicker, stronger layers, which produces a layered composite structure that is much better at resisting damage. Even though such composite structures or layered systems are robust, they can still be susceptible to penetration damage. The ability to detect damage to surfaces of inflatable or semi-rigid habitat structures is of great interest to NASA. Damage caused by impacts of foreign objects such as micrometeorites can rupture the shell of these structures, causing loss of critical hardware and/or the life of the crew. While not all impacts will have a catastrophic result, it will be very important to identify and locate areas of the exterior shell that have been damaged by impacts so that repairs (or other provisions) can be made to reduce the probability of shell wall rupture. This disclosure describes a system that will provide real-time data regarding the health of the inflatable shell or rigidized structures, and information related to the location and depth of impact damage. The innovation described here is a method of determining the size, location, and direction of damage in a multilayered structure. In the multi-dimensional damage detection system, layers of two-dimensional thin film detection layers are used to form a layered composite, with non-detection layers separating the detection layers. The non-detection layers may be either thicker or thinner than the detection layers. The thin-film damage detection layers are thin films of materials with a conductive grid or striped pattern. The conductive pattern may be applied by several methods, including printing, plating, sputtering, photolithography, and etching, and can include as many detection layers that are necessary for the structure construction or to afford the detection detail level required. The damage is detected using a detector or sensory system, which may include a time domain reflectometer, resistivity monitoring hardware, or other resistance-based systems. To begin, a layered composite consisting of thin-film damage detection layers separated by non-damage detection layers is fabricated. The damage detection layers are attached to a detector that provides details regarding the physical health of each detection layer individually. If damage occurs to any of the detection layers, a change in the electrical properties of the detection layers damaged occurs, and a response is generated. Real-time analysis of these responses will provide details regarding the depth, location, and size estimation of the damage. Multiple damages can be detected, and the extent (depth) of the damage can be used to generate prognostic information related to the expected lifetime of the layered composite system. The detection system can be fabricated very easily using off-the-shelf equipment, and the detection algorithms can be written and updated (as needed) to provide the level of detail needed based on the system being monitored. Connecting to the thin film detection layers is very easy as well. The truly unique feature of the system is its flexibility; the system can be designed to gather as much (or as little) information as the end user feels necessary. Individual detection layers can be turned on or off as necessary, and algorithms can be used to optimize performance. The system can be used to generate both diagnostic and prognostic information related to the health of layer composite structures, which will be essential if such systems are utilized for space exploration. The technology is also applicable to other in-situ health monitoring systems for structure integrity.

Williams, Martha↗