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The Scaling and Units of the Elastic Response Term for Rayleigh Waves that is Output by Computer Programs in Seismology (CPS)

We report on the scaling and units of the Rayleigh wave elastic response function A R (ω) that is output from the widely used Computer Programs in Seismology (CPS) to aid in the modeling of ground motion sourced by atmospheric explosions. The program uses mixed units (km, second, km/s, gm/cc) to keep A R (ω) near 10 0 and prevent any numerical underflow or overflow. We compare two models for the response of an elastic half space to the output from CPS. Our application inputs the recommended, mixed unit geological models to determine how researchers must scale this output to obtain physical units for A R (ω) that represents the amplitude scaling for the minimum group velocity (Airy phase) contribution to Rayleigh waves. We determine that a CPS user must scale the output for A R (ω) by 10 -12 (m/km) 2 (g/cc/m 3 /kg) to obtain MKS (meter, kg, second) units and then must multiply this result by the vertical component eigenfunction squared, that is evaluated at the free surface.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub (Final Report)

The Roughrider Carbon Storage Hub was a 2-year project (October 2023 – September 2025) conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) focused on advancing the feasibility of a commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) geologic storage hub in McKenzie County, North Dakota. The project’s objective was to investigate the potential that stacked storage complexes (multiple deep saline formations) can safely and economically store at least 50 million tonnes of CO 2 within 30 years. The captured CO 2 would be sourced from industrial emitters including project partner ONEOK, Inc.’s gas-processing plants and a planned gas-to-liquids facility. Drilling of the Roughrider 1 stratigraphic test well (14,979-ft total depth) was completed in November 2024. The wellbore intersected four candidate storage formations: Inyan Kara, Broom Creek, Mission Canyon, and Black Island–Deadwood. Operational challenges, including a stuck drill string, were resolved without long-term impact. A comprehensive logging and coring program was conducted, followed by successful well abandonment and site reclamation. Over 660 ft of 4-in. whole core was retrieved. Core plug samples were processed and analyzed for petrophysical and geochemical properties. Results confirmed promising porosity and permeability in the Inyan Kara and Broom Creek Formations and removal of the Mission Canyon and Black Island–Deadwood horizons from further investigation. Data derived from the logging and coring program were used to improve initial geologic models built from legacy data. CO 2 injection simulations showed that the Inyan Kara alone can feasibly store the target mass of CO 2 . Because of subtle differences in geologic structure and porosity trends between the formations, a stacked storage scenario using the Broom Creek and Inyan Kara Formations resulted in a larger overall plume area than using the Inyan Kara alone. Preliminary CO 2 pipeline routes from the industrial sources were mapped utilizing existing rights of way and evaluated for capacity and cost using U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management/National Energy Technology Laboratory models and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency emissions data. Integrating capture, transport, and storage cost estimates with policy incentives (e.g., 45Q credits) provided a total cost-per-ton analysis. Results indicate that the small scale of the volumes to be transported over the cumulative large distances does not support the project’s financial viability. However, the groundwork laid during this project from geological, regulatory, and social perspectives positions the Roughrider hub site as a promising candidate for commercial carbon storage in North Dakota, especially if the economy of scale is introduced for CO 2 transportation to the hub site.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

3D Model of the Neal Hot Springs Geothermal Area

The Neal Hot Springs geothermal system lies in a left-step in a north-striking, west-dipping normal fault system, consisting of the Neal Fault to the south and the Sugarloaf Butte Fault to the north (Edwards, 2013). The Neal Hot Springs 3D geologic model consists of 104 faults and 13 stratigraphic units. The stratigraphy is sub-horizontal to dipping

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Quantifying uncertainty in regional-scale seismic moment tensors

We examine the ability of three different inversion methods: 1) first motion (FM) inversions, 2) amplitude inversions, and 3) full waveform (FW) time variable moment tensor (TVMT) inversions, to recover an accurate source mechanism for simulated data for an earthquake as well as an explosion. The ability of inversion methods, such as the ones described above, to recover accurate models representative of the data depends on both a priori information as well as the quality of data being inverted. Therefore, we examine the effect that station geometry, geologic model, and noise level has on the inversion and estimated source mechanism. We find that FM data can provide more robust solutions than amplitude data and are not as sensitive to inaccurate earth models, especially in low-noise cases, and overall FW inversions are the most accurate out of the methods examined, but can still be biased by inaccurate earth models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

3D Model of the Tuscarora Geothermal Area

The Tuscarora geothermal system sits within a ~15 km wide left-step in a major west-dipping range-bounding normal fault system. The step over is defined by the Independence Mountains fault zone and the Bull Runs Mountains fault zone which overlap along strike. Strain is transferred between these major fault segments via and array of northerly striking normal faults with offsets of 10s to 100s of meters and strike lengths of less than 5 km. These faults within the step over are one to two orders of magnitude smaller than the range-bounding fault zones between which they reside. Faults within the broad step define an anticlinal accommodation zone wherein east-dipping faults mainly occupy western half of the accommodation zone and west-dipping faults lie in the eastern half of the accommodation zone. The 3D model of Tuscarora encompasses 70 small-offset normal faults that define the accommodation zone and a portion of the Independence Mountains fault zone, which dips beneath the geothermal field. The geothermal system resides in the axial part of the accommodation, straddling the two fault dip domains. The Tuscarora 3D geologic model consists of 10 stratigraphic units. Unconsolidated Quaternary alluvium has eroded down into bedrock units, the youngest and stratigraphically highest bedrock units are middle Miocene rhyolite and dacite flows regionally correlated with the Jarbidge Rhyolite and modeled with uniform cumulative thickness of ~350 m. Underlying these lava flows are Eocene volcanic rocks of the Big Cottonwood Canyon caldera. These units are modeled as intracaldera deposits, including domes, flows, and thick ash deposits that change in thickness and locally pinch out. The Paleozoic basement of consists metasedimenary and metavolcanic rocks, dominated by argillite, siltstone, limestone, quartzite, and metabasalt of the Schoonover and Snow Canyon Formations. Paleozoic formations are lumped in a single basement unit in the model. Fault blocks in the eastern portion of the model are tilted 5-30 degrees toward the Independence Mountains fault zone. Fault blocks in the western portion of the model are tilted toward steeply east-dipping normal faults. These opposing fault block dips define a shallow extensional anticline. Geothermal production is from 4 closely-spaced wells, that exploit a west-dipping, NNE-striking fault zone near the axial part of the accommodation zone.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Mid-Atlantic U.S. Offshore Carbon Storage Resource Assessment Project (Final Technical Report)

The greatest potential for carbon storage in the northeastern United States lies in the offshore geologic formations comprising the outer continental shelf (Monteverde et al., 2011). Offshore storage can be linked to large point-sources of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) while avoiding many of the logistical difficulties and potential risks encountered when siting onshore projects, especially in densely populated areas of the East Coast. Offshore CO 2 storage assessment and research in the United States is underway to address uncertainty in potential storage resources, particularly in the mid- and north-Atlantic offshore area. Given the current knowledge base and access to publicly available data, the objectives of the Mid-Atlantic U.S. Offshore Carbon Storage Resource Assessment Project (MAOCSRAP) were fourfold: (1) complete a systematic carbon storage resource assessment of the mid-Atlantic offshore coastal region from the Georges Bank Basin (GBB) through the Long Island Platform (LIP) to the southern Baltimore Canyon Trough (BCT); (2) define key input parameters to reduce uncertainty for offshore storage resource and efficiency estimates; (3) perform a preliminary assessment of risk factors, uncertainties, and data gaps; and (4) engage industry and regulatory stakeholders through development of a Road Map to assist future project planning and implementation. The MAOCSRAP project has compiled, inventoried, and assimilated various publicly available data sets to provide a strong technical basis on which future carbon storage studies and applications can be built. The knowledge infrastructure necessary to support the development of full-scale offshore carbon storage include: Defining the geologic characteristics of candidate storage sites (Chapter 2). Using existing seismic data to better define the continuity of the storage zones and seals (Chapter 3). Cataloguing the hydrogeologic properties of mid-Atlantic offshore storage sites (Chapter 4). Calculating prospective CO 2 storage resources using net effective pore volumes and fluid displacement properties specific to offshore lithologies (Chapter 5). Examining risk factors related to offshore storage (Chapter 6). Communicating with industry and other stakeholders about the future prospects for offshore storage (Chapter 7). Ensuring technology transfer to industry and other stakeholders (Chapter 8). Led by Battelle, this project was conducted by public and private entities with expertise in offshore geology and resources for the study region, including state geological surveys of Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania; United States Geological Survey-Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center and Haifa University; Rutgers University; Harvard University; and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) at Columbia University. The storage resource assessment was completed for a broad region offshore of the U.S. East Coast, from Massachusetts to Virginia. The results include high-level storage resource estimates for areas not previously characterized and improved storage resource estimates for geographically expansive portions of offshore geologic units. Results of the project provide a foundation for developing CO 2 storage along offshore areas of the mid-Atlantic United States. A combination of information was used to provide confidence in project results. Key findings of the major project tasks are summarized as follows. Subsurface Data Analysis: Legacy seismic, well-log, core, and biostratigraphic data were digitized, reprocessed, and analyzed using modern techniques, augmenting previous characterization efforts. The sequence stratigraphic framework for the Cretaceous and Jurassic strata was developed by correlating well-log depositional sequences to seismic reflectors identified in the BCT, LIP, and GBB. The integration of well-log stratigraphy with seismic stratigraphy and petrophysical analysis helped to identify and map potential storage zones within sequences of the Logan Canyon (LC), Missisauga, and Mohawk formations, as well as the regionally extensive caprock comprised of the Dawson Canyon shale. Approximately 4,000 kilometers (km) of seismic data was reprocessed to create a structural framework that was used to tie together all available well data, constrain sequence stratigraphic interpretations, and make regional assessments of offshore carbon storage resources. Prospective storage resource estimates were 150 to 1136 megatons (Mt) for the combined storage zones. This suggests mid-Atlantic U.S. offshore formations can store decades of CO 2 from industrial sources in the region. Preliminary local reservoir simulations suggest that injection rates of 1 Mt CO 2 /year may be sustained for 30 years in single injection wells in the BCT. Advanced geologic modeling and new data acquisition are needed to address data gaps and advance carbon capture and storage (CCS) in key offshore areas selected for further investigation. Offshore Risk Factors: Offshore geologic risk factors include soft sediment deformation, unit continuity, sedimentological and structural features, seismicity and hydrates. CO 2 storage risks include inadequate seals, migration/leakage, and chemical interactions leading to decreased storage. Sensitive habitats, environmental impacts, disturbance to seafloor, and other risks need to be identified in advance of project activities and integrated into detailed mitigation plans for all project phases. Stakeholder Engagement: Input and participation from government, industry, and environmental groups provided input into the Road Map and address next steps needed for project deployment. Early engagement and ongoing communication, as well as policy framework development, is key to large-scale deployment of CCS. Next Steps: This project represents an important first step by completing a high-level CO 2 storage resource assessment and building the knowledge infrastructure necessary to improve quantitative storage resource estimates. The data sets that have been curated under this project provide an opportunity to conduct research and development (R&D) needed to address data gaps and reduce risk and uncertainty. Offshore characterization and validation strategies that are systematically designed to provide data and infrastructure that can be upscaled to meet commercial requirements could be developed off of this foundation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modeling gravity and magnetic fields for crustal and upper mantle structures

Research was conducted to: (1) make a direct comparison between the gravity and magnetic fields near the ellipsoid and at the height expected for the Geopotential Research Mission (GRM) for the same geologic model, (2) obtain realistic estimates of the gradients that can be expected at the orbit height of the GRM, and (3) demonstrate the value of data that the GRM could provide for investigating upper mantle and deep crustal anomalies.

Denoyer, J. M.↗

Plate tectonics and crustal deformation around the Japanese Islands

We analyze over a century of geodetic data to study crustal deformation and plate motion around the Japanese Islands, using the block-fault model for crustal deformation developed by Matsu'ura et al. (1986). We model the area including the Japanese Islands with 19 crustal blocks and 104 faults based on the distribution of active faults and seismicity. Geodetic data are used to obtain block motions and average slip rates of faults. This geodetic model predicts that the Pacific plate moves N deg 69 +/- 2 deg W at about 80 +/- 3 mm/yr relative to the Eurasian plate which is much lower than that predicted in geologic models. Substantial aseismic slip occurs on the subduction boundaries. The block containing the Izu Peninsula may be separated from the rigid part of the Philippine Sea plate. The faults on the coast of Japan Sea and the western part of the Median Tectonic Line have slip rates exceeding 4 mm/yr, while the Fossa Magna does not play an important role in the tectonics of the central Japan. The geodetic model requires the division of northeastern Japan, contrary to the hypothesis that northeastern Japan is a part of the North American plate. Owing to rapid convergence, the seismic risk in the Nankai trough may be larger than that of the Tokai gap.

Hashimoto, Manabu↗

Evaluating the Suitability for CO 2 Storage at the FutureGen 2.0 Site, Morgan County, Illinois, USA

FutureGen 2.0 site will be the first near-zero emission power plant with fully integrated long-term storage in a deep, non-potable saline aquifer in the United States. The proposed FutureGen 2.0 CO 2 storage site is located in northeast Morgan County, Illinois, U.S.A., forty-eight kilometres from the Meredosia Energy Center where a large-scale oxy-combustion demonstration will be conducted. The demonstration will involve > 90% carbon capture, which will produce more than one million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 per year. The CO 2 will be compressed at the power plant and transported via pipeline to the storage site. To examine CO 2 storage potential of the site, a 1,467m characterization well (FGA#1) was completed in December 2011. The target reservoir for CO 2 storage is the Mt. Simon Sandstone and Elmhurst Sandstone Member of the lower Eau Claire Formation for a combined thickness of 176 m. Confining beds of the overlying Lombard and Proviso Members (upper Eau Claire Formation) reach a thickness of 126 m. Characterization of the target injection zone and the overlying confining zone was based on wellbore data, cores, and geophysical logs, along with surface geophysical (2-D seismic profiles, magnetic and gravity), and structural data collected during the initial stage of the project . Based on this geological model, 3D simulations of CO 2 injection and redistribution were conducted using STOMP-CO 2 , a multiphase flow and transport simulator. After this characterization stage, it appears that the injection site is a suitable geologic system for CO 2 sequestration and that the injection zone is sufficient to receive up to 33 MMT of CO 2 at a rate of 1.1 MMT/yr. GHGT-11 conference

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Joint Body- and Surface-Wave Tomography of Yucca Flat, Nevada, Using a Novel Seismic Source

In preparation for the next phase of the Source Physics Experiments, we acquired an active–source seismic dataset along two transects totaling more than 30 km in length at Yucca Flat, Nevada, on the Nevada National Security Site. Yucca Flat is a sedimentary basin which has hosted more than 650 underground nuclear tests (UGTs). The survey source was a novel 13,000 kg modified industrial pile driver. This weight drop source proved to be broadband and repeatable, richer in low frequencies (1–3 Hz) than traditional vibrator sources and capable of producing peak particle velocities similar to those produced by a 50 kg explosive charge. In this study, we performed a joint inversion of P–wave refraction travel times and Rayleigh–wave phase–velocity dispersion curves for the P– and S–wave velocity structure of Yucca Flat. Phase–velocity surface–wave dispersion measurements were obtained via the refraction microtremor method on 1 km arrays, with 80% overlap. Our P–wave velocity models verify and expand the current understanding of Yucca Flat’s subsurface geometry and bulk properties such as depth to Paleozoic basement and shallow alluvium velocity. Areas of disagreement between this study and the current geologic model of Yucca Flat (derived from borehole studies) generally correlate with areas of widely spaced borehole control points. This provides an opportunity to update the existing model, which is used for modeling groundwater flow and radionuclide transport. Scattering caused by UGT–related high–contrast velocity anomalies substantially reduced the number and frequency bandwidth of usable dispersion picks. Here, the S–wave velocity models presented in this study agree with existing basin–wide studies of Yucca Flat, but are compromised by diminished surface–wave coherence as a product of this scattering. As nuclear nonproliferation monitoring moves from teleseismic to regional or even local distances, such high–frequency (>5 Hz) scattering could prove challenging when attempting to discriminate events in areas of previous testing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Merging high resolution geophysical and geochemical surveys to reduce exploration risk at glass buttes, Oregon

The engineering and studies phase of the Glass Buttes project was aimed at reducing risk during the early stages of geothermal project development. The project’s inclusion of high resolution geophysical and geochemical surveys allowed Ormat to evaluate the value of these surveys both independently and in combination to quantify the most valuable course of action for exploration in an area where structure, permeability, and temperature are the most pressing questions. The sizes of the thermal anomalies at Glass Buttes are unusually large. Over the course of Phase I Ormat acquired high resolution LIDAR data to accurately map fault manifestations at the surface and collected detailed gravity and aeromagnetic surveys to map subsurface structural features. In addition, Ormat collected airborne hyperspectral data to assist with mapping the rock petrology and mineral alteration assemblages along Glass Buttes faults and magnetotelluric (MT) survey to try to better constrain the structures at depth. Direct and indirect identification of alteration assemblages reveal not only the geochemical character and temperature of the causative hydrothermal fluids but can also constrain areas of upflow along specific fault segments. All five datasets were merged along with subsurface lithologies and temperatures to predict the most likely locations for high permeability and hot fluids. The Glass Buttes temperature anomalies include 2 areas, totaling 60 km2 (23 mi2) of measured temperature gradients over 165° C/km (10° F/100ft). The Midnight Point temperature anomaly includes the Strat-1 well with 90°C (194 °F) at 603 m (1981 ft) with a 164 °C/km (10°F/100ft) temperature gradient at bottom hole and the GB-18 well with 71°C (160 °F) at 396 m (1300 ft) with a 182°C/km (11°F/100ft) gradient. The primary area of alteration and elevated temperature occurs near major fault intersections associated with Brothers Fault Zone and Basin and Range systems. Evidence for faulting is observed in each data set as follows. Field observations include fault plane orientations, complicated fault intersections, and hydrothermal alteration apparently pre-dating basalt flows. Geophysical anomalies include large, linear gradients in gravity and aeromagnetic data with magnetic lows possibly associated with alteration. Resistivity low anomalies also appear to have offsets associated with faulting. Hyperspectral and XRF identified alteration and individual volcanic flow units, respectively. When incorporated into a 3D geologic model, the fault intersections near the highest proven temperature and geophysical anomalies provide the first priority targets at Midnight Point. Ormat geologists selected the Midnight Point 52-33 drilling target based on a combination of pre-existing drilling data, geologic field work, geophysical interpretation, and geochemical analysis. Deep temperatures of well 52-33 was lower than anticipated. Temperature gradients in the well mirrored those found in historical drilling, but they decreased below 1500 ft and were isothermal below 2000 ft.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE: Phase 2C Topical Report

This is the topical report that wraps up the work and results achieved during Utah FORGE Phase 2C. The zip file includes several folders containing (1) an overview; (2) the results; (3) the lessons learned; and (4) the conclusions. It also contains a folder containing appendices including (1) the updated permitting inventory; (2) the updated site characterization data inventory; (3) the updated conceptual geological model; and (4) the stakeholders engagement and outreach status.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Development of Saturated Zone Three-Dimensional Initial Condition Plumes for the Composite Analysis and Cumulative Impacts Evaluation Modeling

The purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to document and present the methodology, input data, and results of extending two-dimensional (2-D) plume depictions documented in DOE/RL- 2017-66, Hanford Site Groundwater Monitoring for 2017, into three dimensions (3-D) for select contaminants of interest (COIs) in the 200-BP-5, 200-UP-1, 200-ZP-1, and 200-PO-1 Groundwater Operable Units at the Hanford Site. Plumes with sufficient available vertical profile data were interpolated in 3-D using the Leapfrog Geo®1 geologic modeling platform, which includes an interpolation engine for analyzing and visualizing 3-D data. Results of these interpolations are intended for use in developing inputs for transport modeling to support forecasts of Central Plateau contaminant plume fate and transport.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Metal Removal by a Free Surface Constructed Wetland and Prediction of Metal Bioavailability and Toxicity with Diffusive Gradients in Thin Films (DGT) and Biotic Ligand Model (BLM)

The H-02 constructed wetland is a free water surface wetland to remove copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) from the industrial wastewater. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the wetland from 2018 to 2019 and coupled the diffusive gradients in thin films (DGTs) and biotic ligand model (BLM) to explore metal speciation and bioavailability in wetland waters. Surface water samples were collected and piston DGTs were deployed in different sites of the wetland. The H-02 wetland functioned well during the sampling period with high removal efficiencies (Cu: 73.8 ± 1.2% and Zn: 75.2 ± 16.0%). In our study, with the assumption that the combination of BLM predicted inorganic metals species, BLM Cu(II) and BLM Zn(II), were the bioavailable and toxic species, DGT-Cu did not correlate to BLM Cu(II) (P = 0.47), but DGT-Zn positively correlated to BLM Zn(II) (R 2 = 0.35, P < 0.001). Compared to the modeling results of BLM, DGT-indicated labile and/or bioavailable Cu included not only free Cu ions and inorganic Cu complexes but also a high percentage of Cu-labile organic matter complexes. DGT-indicated Zn included free Zn ion, inorganic Zn, and only a low percentage of Zn-labile organic matter complexes. Our findings illustrated the appropriate use of passive sampling techniques and geological modeling when biomonitoring could be substituted. Furthermore, the close monitoring of metal concentrations, speciation, and bioavailability helps us understand metal biogeochemistry and metal removal processes and ensure the long-term sustainability of the constructed wetland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling fracture facies with in-situ permeability measurements to generate stochastic simulations of tight carbonate aquifer properties: Example from the Lower Cretaceous aquifer, Northern Provence, SE France

The relationships between fracture facies and permeability distribution have been explored using a well-constrained 3D implicit structural model of hemipelagic low porosity/low permeability carbonate from the Northern Provence region, SE France. Fracture and permeability facies were determined using an extensive dataset of 99 hydrogeological wells. Data processing was undertaken using a step-by-step approach, involving: (i) identification of the fracture facies based on well logs detailing structure and stratigraphy; (ii) determination of permeability facies from the a priori correlation between the dimension of the hydraulic radius of influence (deduced from slug test analyses) and the type of reservoir heterogeneity (fissure, fracture, fault zone, etc.); (iii) three dimensional plot of fracture and permeability facies in the geological model using a variographic analysis of data. Thirty-three sequential indicator simulations (SIS) based on geostatistic analyses were realised on both fracture and permeability facies. Finally, a connectivity algorithm was developed to compute the probability of connection between selected infiltration areas and the major aquifer springs via moderate- to high-permeability geological bodies. Key results are: (i) fault zones have a greater role in controlling permeability facies distribution than on fracture facies repartition; (ii) there is little correlation between permeability and fracture facies distributions; (iii) connectivity results highlight the compartmentalisation of aquifers in the Cadarache area, the extensions of permeable geological bodies being limited by the N130 faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CO 2 storage and potential fault instability in the St. Lawrence Lowlands sedimentary basin (Quebec, Canada): Insights from coupled reservoir-geomechanical modeling

In this paper, coupled reservoir-geomechanical (TOUGH-FLAC) modeling is applied for the first time to the St. Lawrence Lowlands region to evaluate the potential for shear failure along pre-existing high-angle normal faults, as well as the potential for tensile failure in the caprock units (Utica Shale and Lorraine Group). This activity is part of a general assessment of the potential for safe CO 2 injection into a sandstone reservoir (the Covey Hill Formation) within an Early Paleozoic sedimentary basin. Field and subsurface data are used to estimate the sealing properties of two reservoir-bounding faults (Yamaska and Champlain faults). The spatial variations in fluid pressure, effective minimum horizontal stress, and shear strain are calculated for different injection rates, using a simplified 2D geological model of the Becancour area, located ~110 km southwest of Quebec City. The simulation results show that initial fault permeability affects the timing, localization, rate, and length of fault shear slip. Contrary to the conventional view, our results suggest that shear failure may start earlier for a permeable fault than for a sealing fault, depending on the site-specific geologic setting. In simulations of a permeable fault, shear slip is nucleated along a 60 m long fault segment in a thin and brittle caprock unit (Utica Shale) trapped below a thicker and more ductile caprock unit (Lorraine Group) – and then subsequently progresses up to the surface. In the case of a sealing fault, shear failure occurs later in time and is localized along a fault segment (300 m) below the caprock units. The presence of the inclined low-permeable Yamaska Fault close to the injection well causes asymmetric fluid-pressure buildup and lateral migration of the CO 2 plume away from the fault, reducing the overall risk of CO 2 leakage along faults. Finally, fluid-pressure-induced tensile fracturing occurs only under extremely high injection rates and is localized below the caprock units, which remain intact, preventing upward CO 2 migration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimizing and Quantifying CO 2 Storage Resource in Saline Formations and Hydrocarbon Reservoirs

In an effort to reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from large stationary sources, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being investigated as one approach. This work assesses CO 2 storage resource estimation methods for deep saline formations (DSFs) and hydrocarbon reservoirs undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Project activities were conducted using geologic modeling and simulation to investigate CO 2 storage efficiency. CO 2 storage rates and efficiencies in DSFs classified by interpreted depositional environment were evaluated at the regional scale over a 100-year time frame. A focus was placed on developing results applicable to future widespread commercial-scale CO 2 storage operations in which an array of injection wells may be used to optimize storage in saline formations. The results of this work suggest future investigations of prospective storage resource in closed or semiclosed formations need not have a detailed understanding of the depositional environment of the reservoir to generate meaningful estimates. However, the results of this work also illustrate the relative importance of depositional environment, formation depth, structural geometry, and boundary conditions on the rate of CO 2 storage in these types of systems. CO 2 EOR occupies an important place in the realm of geologic storage of CO 2 , as it is likely to be the primary means of geologic CO 2 storage during the early stages of commercial implementation, given the lack of a national policy and the viability of the current business case. This work estimates CO 2 storage efficiency factors using a unique industry database of CO 2 EOR sites and 18 different reservoir simulation models capturing fluvial clastic and shallow shelf carbonate depositional environments for reservoir depths of 1219 and 2438 meters (4000 and 8000 feet) and 7.6-, 20-, and 64-meter (25-, 66,- and 209-foot) pay zones. The results of this work provide practical information that can be used to quantify CO 2 storage resource estimates in oil reservoirs during CO 2 EOR operations (as opposed to storage following depletion) and the uncertainty associated with those estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗