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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Linear model decision trees as surrogates in optimization of engineering applications

Machine learning models are promising as surrogates in optimization when replacing difficult to solve equations or black-box type models. This work demonstrates the viability of linear model decision trees as piecewise-linear surrogates in decision-making problems. Linear model decision trees can be represented exactly in mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and mixed-integer quadratic constrained programming (MIQCP) formulations. Furthermore, they can represent discontinuous functions, bringing advantages over neural networks in some cases. We present several formulations using transformations from Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) formulations and modifications of MILP formulations for gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT). We then compare the computational performance of these different MILP and MIQCP representations in an optimization problem and illustrate their use on engineering applications. Importantly, we observe faster solution times for optimization problems with linear model decision tree surrogates when compared with GBDT surrogates using the Optimization and Machine Learning Toolkit (OMLT).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-invertible defects from the Conway SCFT to K3 sigma models. Part I. General results

We initiate the study of supersymmetry-preserving topological defect lines (TDLs) in the Conway moonshine module V f♮ . We show that the tensor category of such defects, under suitable assumptions, admits a surjective but non-injective ring homomorphism into the ring of $\mathbb{Z}$-linear maps of the Leech lattice into itself. This puts strong constraints on possible defects and their quantum dimensions. We describe a simple construction of non-invertible TDLs from orbifolds of holomorphic (super)vertex operator algebras, which yields non-trivial examples of TDLs satisfying our main theorem. We conjecture a correspondence between four-plane-preserving TDLs in V f♮ and supersymmetry-preserving TDLs in K3 non-linear sigma models, which extends the correspondence between symmetry groups to the level of tensor category symmetry. We establish evidence for this conjecture by constructing non-invertible TDLs in special K3 non-linear sigma models.

Conformal Field Models in String Theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing methods in fusion and fitting for time series construction in remote sensing-based earth observations

This study evaluates the comparative performance of spatiotemporal fusion and time-series fitting methods for constructing high-spatiotemporal-resolution remote sensing time-series data. Due to in-class similarity of fusion methods and fitting methods, we employ the Fit-FC (Fitting, spatial Filtering, and residual Compensation) model as a representative fusion method and the linear harmonic fitting model as a representative fitting method. Both Fit-FC and the linear harmonic fitting are widely used for high-spatiotemporal-resolution time-series data construction, and we modify the original Fit-FC model to enable automatic time-series fusion. To ensure data representativeness, we use 3 years (2019–2021) of Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 surface reflectance datasets and Terra MCD43A4 products. Eight experimental regions are selected worldwide to guarantee generalization of the comparative performance between fusion and fitting methods, covering diverse land-use types (cropland, developed land, forest, and grassland) and varying climatological conditions. Time-series of NDVI and surface reflectance are analyzed under both actual observations and simulated data-missing scenarios. The constructed time-series data reveals that (1) the modified Fit-FC and linear harmonic fitting model achieve excellent performance in constructing high-resolution time-series images; (2) the fusion method outperforms the fitting method in constructing time-series of NDVI and surface reflectance images in cropland-, forest-, and grassland-dominated regions; (3) both methods achieve comparable performance in developed-dominated regions; (4) the fusion method is more robust to missing data, and better captures abrupt phenological transitions under conditions of continuous missing data; (5) the fitting method is computationally more efficient, making it suitable for large-scale time-series image reconstruction. This study provides valuable insights for selecting optimal strategies to generate high-resolution time-series images across diverse application scenarios and lays a foundation for extensions to other vegetation indices or land surface variables.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A modeling pipeline to relate municipal wastewater surveillance and regional public health data

As COVID-19 becomes endemic, public health departments require improved passive indicators, which are independent of voluntary testing data, to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 in local communities. Quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from wastewater has the potential to be a powerful passive indicator. However, connecting measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA to community prevalence is challenging. We have developed a generalized methodology to improve the predictive power of wastewater measurements and applied it to data collected from treatment plants in the Chicago area. We built and compared a set of multi-linear regression models, which incorporate pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) as a population biomarker, Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) as a recovery control, and wastewater system flow rate into a corrected estimate for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration. For our data, models with BCoV performed better than those with PMMoV, but all model estimates of prevalence significantly improved correlation compared to doing no correction. We also investigate the utility of RNA measurements in wastewater as a leading indicator of COVID-19 trends. We do this in a rolling manner for corrected wastewater data and for other prevalence indicators, and statistically compare the temporal relationship between new increases in the wastewater data and those in other prevalence indicators. We find that wastewater trends often lead other COVID-19 indicators in predicting new surges.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global energy balance simulations of shattered pellet injection

The dynamics of shattered pellet injection (SPI) shutdowns are simulated using a time-dependent global energy balance model, based on a modification of the KPRAD framework. The new SPI particle source in the model calculates the ablation of individual pellet fragments that enter the plasma as a temporally resolved plume, thus capturing the effects of earlier fragments on the ablation of those that follow, which has a significant impact on the overall assimilation. Despite the reduced physics and the global averaging of all quantities, results from a large number of DIII-D, KSTAR, and JET experiments are well reproduced, including the plasma cooling timescales, particle assimilation, and current quench (CQ) rates. Cooling timescales and CQ rates are in good agreement for pellets containing as little as ∼1% neon, while particle assimilations are most accurate for neon fractions above ∼15% by number of atoms. Below this, the assimilation tends to be overestimated due to the lack of radial transport in the particle balance, which becomes important in the low-Z limit. Predictive simulations of mixed-composition dual-SPI shutdowns in ITER are compared against those with the 3D non-linear magnetohydrodynamic code JOREK and are found to reproduce overall trends observed in the higher-fidelity modeling across a range of injection scenarios. The general success of the model points to the critical role of energy balance in determining SPI particle assimilation and the subsequent disruption dynamics and highlights the value of these simulations for experimental interpretation and for optimizing the deployment of computationally expensive, higher-fidelity models.

energy balance model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Significance Testing for Mixed Priors: A Combined Bayesian and Frequentist Analysis

In many hypothesis testing applications, we have mixed priors, with well-motivated informative priors for some parameters but not for others. The Bayesian methodology uses the Bayes factor and is helpful for the informative priors, as it incorporates Occam’s razor via the multiplicity or trials factor in the look-elsewhere effect. However, if the prior is not known completely, the frequentist hypothesis test via the false-positive rate is a better approach, as it is less sensitive to the prior choice. We argue that when only partial prior information is available, it is best to combine the two methodologies by using the Bayes factor as a test statistic in the frequentist analysis. We show that the standard frequentist maximum likelihood-ratio test statistic corresponds to the Bayes factor with a non-informative Jeffrey’s prior. We also show that mixed priors increase the statistical power in frequentist analyses over the maximum likelihood test statistic. We develop an analytic formalism that does not require expensive simulations and generalize Wilks’ theorem beyond its usual regime of validity. In specific limits, the formalism reproduces existing expressions, such as the p-value of linear models and periodograms. We apply the formalism to an example of exoplanet transits, where multiplicity can be more than 10 7 . We show that our analytic expressions reproduce the $p$-values derived from numerical simulations. We offer an interpretation of our formalism based on the statistical mechanics. We introduce the counting of states in a continuous parameter space using the uncertainty volume as the quantum of the state. We show that both the $p$-value and Bayes factor can be expressed as an energy versus entropy competition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Cauchy Problem for Boltzmann Bi-linear Systems: The Mixing of Monatomic and Polyatomic Gases

Abstract From a unified vision of vector valued solutions in weighted Banach spaces, this paper establishes the existence and uniqueness for space homogeneous Boltzmann bi-linear systems with conservative collisional forms arising in complex gas dynamical structures. This broader vision is directly applied to dilute multi-component gas mixtures composed of both monatomic and polyatomic gases. Such models can be viewed as extensions of scalar Boltzmann binary elastic flows, as much as monatomic gas mixtures with disparate masses and single polyatomic gases, providing a unified approach for vector valued solutions in weighted Banach spaces. Novel aspects of this work include developing the extension of a general ODE theory in vector valued weighted Banach spaces, precise lower bounds for the collision frequency in terms of the weighted Banach norm, energy identities, angular or compact manifold averaging lemmas which provide coerciveness resulting into global in time stability, a new combinatorics estimate for p -binomial forms producing sharper estimates for the k -moments of bi-linear collisional forms. These techniques enable the Cauchy problem improvement that resolves the model with initial data corresponding to strictly positive and bounded initial vector valued mass and total energy, in addition to only a $$2^+$$ 2 + moment determined by the hard potential rates discrepancy, a result comparable in generality to the classical Cauchy theory of the scalar homogeneous Boltzmann equation.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Viscoelastic Material Characterization and Modeling of Photovoltaic Module Packaging Materials for Direct Finite-Element Method Input

Numerical tools, such as the finite-element method, are increasingly used to design and evaluate the photovoltaic (PV) modules, providing for the reduction of development time and improved performance and reliability. However, high-fidelity material models are necessary to accurately model the complex structural behavior of the involved packaging materials. A common simplification used in recent years is to model the polymer materials (i.e., encapsulant and backsheet) as linear elastic, which will lead to inaccurate results. Therefore, in this work, we present a thorough characterization of the time- and temperature-dependent mechanical response of predominant PV module encapsulant and backsheet materials. Based on this material characterization, we developed and experimentally validated generalized Maxwell models to describe each material's viscoelastic response. In addition, we included measurements of the coefficient of thermal expansion and presented all material models in such a fashion for direct input into commercial finite-element method modeling software.

FEM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensor Anomaly Detection for Nuclear Reactor Systems Utilizing Linear Regression and K-Means Unsupervised Machine Learning

Nuclear reactors and related systems are becoming increasingly complex due to advancing technologies in next-generation power reactors. This increased complexity necessitates enhanced automation and data management capabilities. To successfully realize autonomous systems, methods must be developed to handle vast volumes of data and effectively distinguish anomalous data from noise and expected data. While impressive models utilizing digital twins and similar approaches are under development, here we propose a simplified model for analyzing fundamental methods and techniques. Initially, we created a general dataset by using initial data from PCTRAN in order to represent ideal steady-state conditions. We then inserted anomalies based on prevalent sensor anomaly types (e.g., point anomalies, linear drift, and downward deviations), along with unusual anomalies such as exponential drift and upward deviations. To detect anomalies, we developed a program that employs data partitioning and linear regression to preprocess and filter the anomalous data. A K-Means machine learning (ML) method was then applied to separate and count the data within the anomalous partition. The results from all datasets—apart from exponential growth—demonstrated positive outcomes, with each returning multiple instances of greaterthan-95% accuracy. We conducted further investigations using Idaho National Laboratory’s RAVEN software to perform a sensitivity analysis on the input variables (R 2 Tolerance, Slope Tolerance, and Window Size) and found that the output variables (Accuracy and Time) were most sensitive to the Window Size. Despite the promising results published, further development is required to effectively apply these methods to nuclear systems. Nevertheless, the strengths of this approach are evident and hold promise for future applications in the field.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long range frequency chirping of Alfvén eigenmodes

In this work, a theoretical framework has been developed for an NBI scenario to model the hard non-linear evolution of global Alfvén eigenmodes (GAEs) where the adiabatic motion of phase-space structures (holes and clumps), associated with frequency chirping, occurs in generalized phase-space of slowing down energetic particles. The radial profile of the GAE is expanded using finite elements, which allows an update of the mode structure as the mode frequency chirps. Constants of motion are introduced to track the dynamics of energetic particles during frequency chirping by implementing proper action-angle variables and canonical transformations which reduce the dynamics essentially to 1D. Consequently, we specify whether the particles are drifting inward/outward as the frequency deviates from the initial MHD eigenfrequency. Using the principle of least action, we have derived the non-linear equation describing the evolution of the radial profile by varying the total Lagrangian of the system with respect to the weights of the finite elements. For the choice of parameters in this work, it is shown that the peak of the radial profile is shifted and also broadens due to frequency chirping. The time rate of frequency change is also calculated using the energy balance and we show that the adiabatic condition remains valid once it is satisfied. This model clearly illustrates the theoretical treatment to study the long-range adiabatic frequency sweeping events observed for Alfvén gap modes in real experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bathymetric Influences on Antarctic Ice-Shelf Melt Rates

Ocean bathymetry exerts a strong control on ice sheet-ocean interactions within Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, where it can limit the access of warm, dense water at depth to the underside of floating ice shelves. However, ocean bathymetry is challenging to measure within or close to ice-shelf cavities. It remains unclear how uncertainty in existing bathymetry datasets affect simulated sub-ice-shelf melt rates. In this work, we infer linear sensitivities of ice-shelf melt rates to bathymetric shape with grid-scale detail by means of the adjoint of an ocean general circulation model. Both idealized and realistic-geometry experiments of sub-ice-shelf cavities in West Antarctica reveal that bathymetry has a strong impact on melt in localized regions such as topographic obstacles to flow. Moreover, response of melt to bathymetric perturbation is found to be non-monotonic, with deepening leading to either increased or decreased melt depending on location. Our computational approach provides a comprehensive way of identifying regions, where refined knowledge of bathymetry is most impactful, and also where bathymetric errors have relatively little effect on modeled ice sheet-ocean interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

hi_class background evolution, initial conditions and approximation schemes

Cosmological datasets have great potential to elucidate the nature of dark energy and test gravity on the largest scales available to observation. Theoretical predictions can be computed with hi_class (www.hiclass-code.net), an accurate, fast and flexible code for linear cosmology, incorporating a wide range of dark energy theories and modifications to general relativity. We introduce three new functionalities into hi_class: (1) Support for models based on covariant Lagrangians, including a constraint-preserving integration scheme for the background evolution and a series of worked-out examples: Galileon, nKGB, quintessence (monomial, tracker) and Brans-Dicke. (2) Consistent initial conditions for the scalar-field perturbations in the deep radiation era, identifying the conditions under which modified-gravity isocurvature perturbations may grow faster than adiabatic modes leading to a loss of predictivity. (3) An automated quasistatic approximation scheme allowing order-of-magnitude improvement in computing performance without sacrificing accuracy for wide classes of models. These enhancements bring the treatment of dark energy and modified gravity models to the level of detail comparable to software tools restricted to standard $\Lambda$CDM cosmologies. Finally, the hi_class code is publicly available (https://github.com/miguelzuma/hi_class_public), ready to explore current data and prepare for next-generation experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Iteration-based Linearized Distribution-level Locational Marginal Price for Three-phase Unbalanced Distribution Systems

Distributed energy resources (DERs) are rocking the utilities’ business landscape. It calls for competitive market environments that incentivize DERs to form maximum operating efficiency. Among proposed pricing schemes, distribution-level locational marginal price (DLMP) is effective in signaling the marginal generation cost differences driven by energy losses and network constraints. It can be derived from a distribution-level optimal power flow (OPF) framework, as it essentially presents the sensitivity of optimized generation cost towards incremental loads. However, due to the high resistance-to-inductance ratio and unbalanced characteristics of distribution networks, computational affordable DLMPs are highly challenged. This article provides a linear-approximated DLMP that can be solved efficiently and generalized to account for reactive power flow, three-phase unbalanced loads and meshed network structure. The successive linear programming technique is introduced to enhance the model accuracy. Case studies on an IEEE 123-Bus system validate its accuracy against a nonlinear benchmark and capability in offering proper incentives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Commercial Building Electricity Consumption, Zone Airflow and Zone Temperature: Update - Development of a Generalized Machine Learning Approach

The U.S. power grid is being transformed to make it smarter, more efficient, and cleaner. This transformation is leading to the addition of a significant of energy generated by distributed, variable, and renewable resources. Because of the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply and demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalances will be less efficient or cost effective. To address this challenge and to support the mission and the vision of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Building Technologies Office has developed a Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Strategy. The strategy focuses on simultaneously improving building energy efficiency and supporting reliability and resilience of the electric grid more efficiently and at a lower cost. In addition, EERE and DOE’s Office of Electricity created an initiative led by DOE and supported by the national laboratories under the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium structure to enhance grid modernization. The work reported in this document is part of the first set of projects funded under the initiative to design, develop, and validate scalable transactive control technologies for the commercial buildings sector. Transactive controls requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical grey- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility. Although this approach is generally easy to construct and simple to use, it does not capture non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent. Therefore, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with support from Western Washington University conducted this research to explore the use of deep machine learning (ML) techniques. The work reported in this document is limited to forecasting whole building electricity consumption, the zone airflow and the zone temperature predictions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Functional Principal Component Analysis of Radio–Optical Reference Frame Tie

The Gaia optical reference frame is intrinsically undefined with respect to global orientation and spin, so it needs to be anchored in the radio-based International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) to provide a referenced and quasi-inertial celestial coordinate system. The link between the two fundamental frames is realized through two samples of distant extragalactic sources, mostly active galactic nuclei and quasars, but only the smaller sample of radio-loud ICRF sources with optical counterparts is available to determine the mutual orientation. The robustness of this link can be mathematically formulated in the framework of functional principal component analysis using a set of vector spherical harmonics to represent the differences in celestial positions of the common objects. The weakest eigenvectors are computed, which describe the greatest deficiency of the link. The deficient or poorly determined terms are specific vector fields on the sphere that carry the largest errors of absolute astrometry using Gaia in reference to the ICRF. This analysis provides guidelines for the future development of the ICRF maximizing the accuracy of the link over the entire celestial sphere. A measure of the robustness of a least-squares solution, which can be applied to any linear model fitting problem, is introduced to help discriminate between reference frame tie models of different degrees.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Generalized hydrodynamic analysis of transport through a finite open nanopore for two-component single-file systems

Single-file diffusion (SFD) in finite open nanopores is characterized by nonzero spatially varying tracer diffusion coefficients within a generalized hydrodynamic description. This contrasts with infinite SFD systems where tracer diffusivity vanishes. In standard tracer counterpermeation (TCP) analysis, two reservoirs, each containing a different species, are connected to opposite ends of a finite pore. Here, we implement an extended TCP analysis to allow the two reservoirs to contain slightly different mixtures of the two species. Then, determination of diffusion fluxes through the pore allows extraction of diffusion coefficients for near-constant partial concentrations of the two species. This analysis is applied for a lattice-gas model describing two-component SFD through a finite linear pore represented by a one-dimensional array of cells. Two types of particles, A and B, can hop only to adjacent empty cells with generally different rates, $h_A$ and $h_B$. Particles are noninteracting other than exclusion of multiple cell occupancy. Results reveal generalized hydrodynamic tracer diffusion coefficients which adopt small values inversely proportional to pore length in the pore center, but which are strongly enhanced near pore openings.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗