Results for “future 2050” — Page 10

DOE OSTI2024

Algae to HEFA : Economics and potential deployment in the United States

Abstract To reach the goals set by the US Department of Energy's Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, currently available feedstocks may be insufficient. Giving priority to developing, prototyping and reducing the cost of algal feedstock before investing and lining up locations is important. As the production of algal feedstocks advances, a simplified conversion approach using more mature technologies can help reduce the investment risk for algae‐based fuels. Reducing process complexity to the steps described here [namely, conversion of lipids to HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids) fuels and relegating the remainder of the biomass to anaerobic digestion or food/feed production] enables the near‐term production of algal SAF but presents challenging economics depending on achievable cultivation costs and compositional quality. However, these economics can be improved by present‐day policy incentives. With these incentives, the modeled algae‐to‐HEFA pathway could reach a minimum fuel selling price as low as $4.7 per gasoline gallon equivalent depending on the carbon intensity reduction that can be achieved compared with petroleum. Uncertainty about algal feedstock production maturity in the current state of technology and the future will play a large role in determining the economic feasibility of building algae‐to‐HEFA facilities. For example, if immaturity increases the feedstock price by even 10%, SAF production in 2050 is about 58% of the production which could have been achieved with mature feedstock. Additionally, growth in this conversion pathway can be notably boosted through the inclusion of subsidies, and also through higher‐value coproducts or higher lipid yields beyond the scope of the process considered here.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Future PM 2.5 emissions from metal production to meet renewable energy demand

A shift from fossil fuel to renewable energy is crucial in limiting global temperature increase to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. However, renewable energy technologies, solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and electric vehicles are metal-intensive, and the mining and smelting processes to obtain the needed metals are emission-intensive. We estimate the future PM 2.5 emissions from mining and smelting to meet the metal demand of renewable energy technologies in two climate pathways to be 0.3–0.6 Tg yr -1 in the 2020–2050 period, which are projected to contribute 10%–30% of total anthropogenic primary PM 2.5 combustion emissions in many countries. The concentration of mineral reserves in a few regions means the impacts are also regionally concentrated. Rapid decarbonization could lead to a faster reduction of overall anthropogenic PM 2.5 emissions but also could create more unevenness in the distributions of emissions relative to where demand occurs. Options to reduce metal-related PM 2.5 emissions by over 90% exist and are well understood; introducing policy requiring their installation could avoid emission hotspots.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spin Formability of High-Strength Aluminum Alloys for Aerospace Applications

Near-net-shape fabrication of launch vehicle tanks and aircraft fuselages is proposed to increase manufacturing rates of aerospace structures. Currently, cryogenic tank manufacturing relies on multi-piece construction requiring hundreds of meters of welds that increase both structural weight and inspection time. Metallic aircraft fuselages involve installation of tens of thousands of rivets resulting in long assembly times. NASA is pursuing spin and flow forming technologies for manufacturing such structures with minimal assembly. These processes enable domes and stiffened barrels to be fabricated using single-piece construction, offering significant manufacturing rate benefits over conventional methods. However, aluminum alloys with sufficient formability, such as Al 6061, tend to have insufficient strength for aerospace structural applications. In contrast, alloys with higher strength, such as Al 2139 and Al 2050, exhibit insufficient formability during ambient temperature forming. This study investigates the spin formability of competitive 5xxx- and 2xxx-series Al alloys, identifies defects impeding formability, and sheds light on future processing routes for successful forming.

Aluminum↗

NASA NTRS2004

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

The most important use of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is to predict the future composition of the atmosphere. The amounts of gases like chlorofluorcarbons, methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane are changing and the stratospheric ozone layer will change because these gases are changing. Methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane all have natural sources, and also change because of human activity. Chlorofluorcarbons are man-made gases; these are known to decrease stratospheric ozone and future production is banned. They are long-lived gases, and many decades will pass before they are insignificant in the atmosphere. The models are used to predict changes in ozone and other gases; this is a straightforward application. The models must be also tested using observations for the present day atmosphere. This is a challenging task, because the model contains more than 50 species and more than 150 chemical reactions. Data from satellites, ground stations, aircraft and balloons are used to evaluate the model. Different models that are used in international assessments produce different results; in the most recent assessment some predict that ozone will return to 1980 levels by 2025 and others predict that this will not happen until 2050. Since all the parts of the models are conceptually the same, there must be differences in implementation that produce these differences, This work takes a single model, two different sets of winds and temperatures, and repeats the same prediction for the future. Here we compare the results for these two simulations with many observations. The purpose is to identify differences in the model results for the present atmosphere that will lead to different predictions. This sort of controlled comparison will reduce uncertainty in the predictions for stratospheric ozone.

Douglas, Anne R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected increase in compound dry and hot events over global land areas

Abstract Under global warming, dry and hot events have been increasing in recent decades and are projected to increase in the future across global land areas. The impacts of compound dry and hot events may lead to increased stress to the natural and human systems than separate dry or hot events. Thus, quantitative assessments of global land areas affected by these compound events are needed to understand their risks. This study focuses on the variation in global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events for both historical and future periods using observations from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. Based on historical observations and simulations, a substantial increase in the spatial extent of these compound events was detected, especially since the 1980s. Climate model projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario reveal that both global land and cropland areas affected by compound dry and hot events will increase to approximately 1.7–1.8 times by the end of the 21st century. Based on different thresholds of compound events, the spatial extent of global land areas during the June–July–August (December–January–February) season will increase by 12.38–17.20% (7.83–11.19%) in 2050–2099 relative to that in 1950–1999, and the spatial extent of global cropland areas will increase by 14.69–19.63% (9.60–14.48%). The increase in areas affected by compound dry and hot events may lead to more losses in different sectors in the future and more efforts are needed to cope with their potential impacts.

Wu, Xinying↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States

This report presents the results of a study on the potential grid impacts of national-scale mass deployment of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) coupled with weatherization in single-family homes (SFHs) from 2022 to 2050. GHPs are a technology readiness level 10, commercially available technology across the United States. This study is an impact analysis only; installed costs and available land areas for installing GHPs are not accounted for in determining their estimated deployment. The three scenarios studied were (1) continuing to operate the grid as it is today (the Base scenario), (2) a scenario to reach 95% grid emissions reductions by 2035 and 100% clean electricity by 2050 (the Grid Decarbonization scenario), and (3) a scenario in which the Grid Decarbonization scenario is expanded to include the electrification of wide portions of the economy, including building heating (the Electrification Futures Study or EFS scenario). The analysis team modeled each of these three scenarios with and without GHP deployment to a large percentage of US building floor space. In all cases, deployment of approximately 5 million GHPs per year demonstrated system cost savings on the grid, consumer fuel cost savings through eliminated fuel combustion for space heating, and CO 2 emission reductions from avoided on-site fuel combustion—and, in the case of the Base scenario, CO 2 emissions reductions from the electric power sector. GHPs have traditionally been viewed as a building energy technology. The most notable result of this study, however, is the demonstration that GHPs coupled with weatherization in SFHs are primarily a grid cost reduction tool and technology that, when deployed at a national scale, also substantially reduces CO 2 emissions, even in the absence of any other decarbonization policy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Solar Futures Study

The Solar Futures Study explores potential pathways for solar energy to drive deep decarbonization of the U.S. electric grid by 2035, and envisions how further electrification could decarbonize the broader U.S. energy system by 2050.

2050↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida: Preprint

Ocean current technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding ocean current to each. NREL's capacity expansion model, Resource Planning Model, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current. The first scenario, Business as Usual, Base case assuming current policies, ocean current does not replace fossil-based technologies. In the second scenario, we allow solar and storage to have lower costs than the first scenario which allows ocean current to retire gas earlier and more variable generation technologies to be deployed. In the third scenario, the Florida carbon constraint 95 by 2050 from 2020 levels case, ocean current can play a bigger role in decarbonization than the two other cases when coupled with other technologies.

capacity expansion model↗

DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the Air Quality Impacts of Future Energy Scenarios

Many greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction measures achieve simultaneous reductions in air pollutants. Human-Earth system models can estimate such emission changes in the energy system but using them in chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to study their air quality impacts involves resource-intensive emissions processing. This is greatly simplified by an emissions scaling approach linking state-level emissions estimated by a human-Earth system model to a CTM. A scenario continuing pre-2022 energy policy in the U.S. to 2050 shows widespread air quality improvements over the 2015 baseline from SO 2 and NO x emission reductions of 50–80% from electricity generation and light-duty vehicles. Scenarios of GHG mitigation and vehicle electrification at the state and national level add further benefits. However, PM 2.5 increases from increased use of wood heating and bioenergy suggest that additional PM 2.5 management may be needed when using biofuels. In conclusion, this approach helps assess multiple future energy scenarios efficiently without sacrificing chemical detail in the air quality simulations.

air quality↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Site Screening for Underground Hydrogen Storage: Qualitative Site Quality Assessment - SHASTA: Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration Project

The global shift towards renewable energy sources to mitigate fossil fuel dependency and meet carbon emission targets by 2050 has underscored the importance of innovative solutions to address energy supply-demand imbalances. Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) has emerged as a promising strategy to store excess renewable energy in subsurface formations for future retrieval and utilization. This report focuses on enhancing the site screening process for UHS facilities. By drawing on insights from prior research to identify key criteria influencing site suitability, our objective is to present a comprehensive set of sixteen specific criteria essential for refining the selection of UHS sites. These criteria cover various aspects such as reservoir performance, legal access, regulatory compliance, economic viability, public acceptance, and safety and security considerations. Our proposed methodology allows users to evaluate potential sites using binary responses, transitioning from isolated factors to broader considerations that facilitate a qualitative assessment of site suitability. This method enables comparative analysis and informed decision-making, supporting stakeholders in the site selection process. Our approach is designed as a guiding framework rather than a rigid template for site screening, emphasizing the importance of customizing approaches to individual circumstances. As UHS site development project evolves, adopting a comprehensive selection methodology that integrates holistic evaluations will be essential for ensuring efficient and effective site screening processes tailored to specific project needs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Site Screening for Underground Hydrogen Storage: Qualitative Site Quality Assessment - SHASTA: Subsurface Hydrogen Assessment, Storage, and Technology Acceleration Project

The global shift towards renewable energy sources to mitigate fossil fuel dependency and meet carbon emission targets by 2050 has underscored the importance of innovative solutions to address energy supply-demand imbalances. Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) has emerged as a promising strategy to store excess renewable energy in subsurface formations for future retrieval and utilization. This report focuses on enhancing the site screening process for UHS facilities. By drawing on insights from prior research to identify key criteria influencing site suitability, our objective is to present a comprehensive set of sixteen specific criteria essential for refining the selection of UHS sites. These criteria cover various aspects such as reservoir performance, legal access, regulatory compliance, economic viability, public acceptance, and safety and security considerations. Our proposed methodology allows users to evaluate potential sites using binary responses, transitioning from isolated factors to broader considerations that facilitate a qualitative assessment of site suitability. This method enables comparative analysis and informed decision-making, supporting stakeholders in the site selection process. Our approach is designed as a guiding framework rather than a rigid template for site screening, emphasizing the importance of customizing approaches to individual circumstances. As UHS site development project evolves, adopting a comprehensive selection methodology that integrates holistic evaluations will be essential for ensuring efficient and effective site screening processes tailored to specific project needs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study

Over 3 million people still die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM 2.5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (e.g., to avoid 1.5°C of warming) may also dramatically improve air quality and public health. Yet there has been no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes under different energy pathways and local clean air management decisions in China. In particular, further research is needed to understand the relationships among climate and clean air polices and future health burdens in China, where an aging population will further exacerbate the impacts of air pollution. Using a China-focused integrated assessment model (GCAM-China) and a dynamic emission projection model (DPEC), we project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (i.e. 1.5°0C, 2°C, NDC, unambitious, baseline, and 4.5°C) as well as national clean air actions (i.e. 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluate the health impacts of PM2·5 air pollution of scenario matrix using the chemical transport model WRF-CMAQ and the latest epidemiological concentration–response (C-R) functions (i.e. GBD2019). We find that, without ambitious climate mitigation (e.g., under current NDC pledges), Chinese deaths related the PM2.5 air pollution do not substantially decrease—and often grow—by mid-century, regardless of clean air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in scenarios that track China’s current NDC pledge and deploy best-available pollution control technologies, PM 2.5 -related deaths in China decrease slightly by 2030 (to 1.2 million per year) but no further by mid-century (Ambitious-pollution-NDC-goals; 1.2 million deaths in 2050) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (27.2 to 16.0 µg/m 3 from 2030 to 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM 2·5 -related deaths in many of our scenarios reveals the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the established fact of increasing age of China’s population in future. Substantial decreases in China’s PM 2.5 -related deaths and age-standardized death rates (e.g., decreasing by 0.3–0.5 million deaths and 10.2–14.2 per 100,000 population age-standardized death rates per year) thus require the sort of large-scale transition in energy sources entailed by scenarios that meet international climate goals to avoid 1.5°C and 2°C of warming (Ambitious-pollution-2°C- and 1.5°C-goals).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

New York Ecological Conservation: Evaluating Agricultural Conservation Easement Impact Using Earth Observations to Examine Avoided Soil Carbon Loss to Development

Farmland provides ecosystems and communities with services ranging from habitat conservation to food security. As total U.S. farmland continues to decline, agricultural lands near urban areas are especially vulnerable. Our project partners—Finger Lakes Land Trust, Genesee Land Trust, and Saratoga Preserving Land and Nature (PLAN)—can use study results to better profile farmland vulnerability, issuing conservation easements to protect maximum acreage in Saratoga County and the Finger Lakes Region of New York. Multiple existing studies effectively use remote sensing imagery to analyze historical land cover and forecast future change. This study examined soil carbon stocks and land cover change to estimate avoided soil carbon loss. We also predicted farmland vulnerability. We completed these analyses using European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA Earth observations that include Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) for nighttime lights data that aided in the land change model analysis. We determined that the conversion of agriculture to development from 1990 to 2022 occurred at rates of 0.91% (Finger Lakes) and 7% (Saratoga). Urban development is predicted to increase surrounding urban centers through 2030 and 2050. We also estimate that between 26.5 and 348,101 kilotons (Finger Lakes) and 3.7 and 58,006 kilotons (Saratoga) of soil carbon losses have been avoided through agricultural easements. Findings from this study will support our partners in determining agricultural conservation easement benefits and prioritizing the acquisition of future easement sites.

Agriculture↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Fiber Simulations and Analysis for Composites

As the U.S. government and the aviation industry strive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the Sustainable Manufacturing of Aircraft (SUMAC) project, supported by the Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), aims to develop sustainably derived thermoplastic composites and manufacturing technologies for future aviation. A multidisciplinary team of experts drives this initiative through a collective effort. The team’s key focus areas are sustainably derived thermoplastic resins, natural fiber reinforcement, composite manufacturing, structural health monitoring, computational materials modeling, and systems analysis. This presentation will give an overview of the SUMAC project. Fiber-scale microscopy analysis characterized fiber cross sections finding that hemp and flax fibers are very deformable and non-circular (circularities of 0.2 were observed), and diameters range from submicron to 20 μm. Fiber shapes range from flattened, with aspect ratios Rlong/Rshort up to 5, to round, Rlong/Rshort =1. And Fiber core perimeters, which likely drives deformability, were calculated Pcore=7 μm. Explicit-fiber yarn simulations, parameterized from single-fiber measurements, resolved and identified slack as a cause for yarn strain-hardening tensile behavior. The bonded network model of PLA, PHA and PA11 resins captures tensile behavior, and can model an infused weave. Computational models of the weave unit cells matched the pattern (including plain, twill and triaxial braid), yarn ply (1to 2), and yarn twist from optical microscopy.

thermoplastic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Natural Fiber Simulations and Analysis for Composites

As the U.S. government and the aviation industry strive to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the Sustainable Manufacturing of Aircraft (SUMAC) project, supported by the Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), aims to develop sustainably derived thermoplastic composites and manufacturing technologies for future aviation. A multidisciplinary team of experts drives this initiative through a collective effort. The team’s key focus areas are sustainably derived thermoplastic resins, natural fiber reinforcement, composite manufacturing, structural health monitoring, computational materials modeling, and systems analysis. This presentation will give an overview of the SUMAC project. Fiber-scale microscopy analysis characterized fiber cross sections finding that hemp and flax fibers are very deformable and non-circular (circularities of 0.2 were observed), and diameters range from submicron to 20 μm. Fiber shapes range from flattened, with aspect ratios Rlong/Rshort up to 5, to round, Rlong/Rshort =1. And Fiber core perimeters, which likely drives deformability, were calculated Pcore=7 μm. Explicit-fiber yarn simulations, parameterized from single-fiber measurements, resolved and identified slack as a cause for yarn strain-hardening tensile behavior. The bonded network model of PLA, PHA and PA11 resins captures tensile behavior, and can model an infused weave. Computational models of the weave unit cells matched the pattern (including plain, twill and triaxial braid), yarn ply (1to 2), and yarn twist from optical microscopy.

thermoplastic↗