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DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Acoustic Source Model for Chemical Explosions in Air

Chemical explosions generate pressure disturbances in air that radiate as nonlinear shock waves near the source and transition into acoustic waves with distance. Because low-frequency acoustic waves generally travel large distances without significant loss of energy, they are often used for explosion monitoring and yield estimation. However, quantitative relationships between acoustic energy and explosion yields are required for accurate yield estimation. Here, we develop an empirical acoustic source model for chemical explosions from experimental data. The empirical model returns the acoustic pressure waveform for the detonation of 1 kg of trinitrotoluene, which is conventionally used to represent the explosive release of 4.184 MJ of explosion energy. The full-waveform model can be used to predict acoustic signals for an arbitrary yield of a high-explosive detonation based on the standard scaling law and to estimate acoustic energies in a specific frequency range. We evaluate the accuracy of the acoustic source model independently by estimating the yield of other explosive events that are not included in the model development. Finally, statistical characteristics of the model and their implications for the uncertainty quantification of estimated yields are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Investigation and validation of the dynamic response of an acoustically levitated particle using the lattice Boltzmann method

The stable levitation of an analyte sample in an acoustic levitator is a primary requirement for accurate x-ray characterization of its scientific structure. A rigid particle oscillates in an under-damped manner when introduced into the node of established standing acoustic waves. This investigation has employed the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM), a computational fluid dynamics technique, for the analysis of such rigid particle dynamics in acoustic levitation. The simulation uses the two dimensional and nine velocity (D2Q9) Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook formulation to levitate a rigid 1.6 mm diameter nylon ($\rho$ = 1150 kg/m 3 ) particle in the air at standard pressure and temperature conditions. The presented work is the first reported simulation of realistic acoustic levitator boundary conditions using the LBM. The simulation can capture the particle-fluid interactions that produce dynamic levitation at less than one-period timescale in the ultrasonic frequency regime. An experiment was conducted by levitating a 1.6mm-diameter nylon sphere to estimate the oscillations, and the oscillating frequency was found to be 50 Hz. The dynamic simulation results are consistent with experimental results for particle oscillations within the same order of magnitude, indicating that LBM formulation can be successfully used to study acoustic levitation to understand and mitigate particle jitter. The distortion of the acoustic field due to a levitating particle's presence was also analyzed to demonstrate how the presence of the particle can disrupt adjacent levitating nodes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Open Source Fault-tolerant Grid Frequency Measurement for Solar Inverters

The Discrete Fourier transform (DFT) based measurement algorithms are one of the most common measurement algorithms for grid parameter estimation such as rms, phase angle, frequency. Over the past few years, many DFT based algorithms have been developed to enhance its measurement accuracy under steady-state and/or dynamic grid conditions. For example, an adaptive band-pass filter utilizing exponential modulation filter has been proposed to reduce measurement errors at the presence of large frequency deviations. Measurement accuracy of different algorithms including FIR filter, extended Kalman filtering (EKF), and enhanced DFT method have been compared in detail under different grid conditions. Two artificial signals that have 90-degree phase difference were constructed by the Clarke transformation to address the frequency spectrum leakage of DFT. A multi-module approach was developed to enhance both steady-state and dynamic measurement accuracies, in which each module was developed to eliminate some specific errors. Besides DFT-based measurement algorithms, some signal model-based algorithms have been developed to further improve the accuracy under dynamic conditions. However, a key drawback of the state-of-the-art algorithms is that they cannot perform measurements accurately during system transient faults. In the Blue Cut Fire event, there was a phase angle jump of about 26 degrees in the voltage waveform during the transient fault. The phase angle jump fault will cause waveform discontinuity, and these algorithms will fail to provide reliable measurements during this period because they typically assume the waveform to be measured is continuous, no matter what method (DFT, PLL, EKF, FIR, or Taylor WLS) is used for estimation. In fact, the measurement errors during the system transient faults like phase-jump is not required in the IEEE Standard. As a result, although a measurement instrument can pass the strict IEEE Standard, it could still be the source of the problem in the future if we have similar system transient faults, which could happen again. Therefore, developing the fault-tolerant measurement technology is the key to solve the problem.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Importance of Site Diversity and Connectivity in Electrochemical CO Reduction on Cu

Electrochemical CO 2 reduction on Cu is a promising approach to produce value-added chemicals using renewable feedstocks, yet various Cu preparations have led to differences in activity and selectivity toward single and multicarbon products. Here, we find, surprisingly, that the effective catalytic activity toward ethylene improves when there is a larger fraction of less active sites acting as reservoirs of *CO on the surface of Cu nanoparticle electrocatalysts. In an adaptation of chemical transient kinetics to electrocatalysis, we measure the dynamic response of a gas diffusion electrode (GDE) cell when the feed gas is abruptly switched between Ar (inert) and CO. When switching from Ar to CO, CO reduction (COR) begins promptly, but when switching from CO to Ar, COR can be maintained for several seconds (delay time) despite the absence of the CO reactant in the gas phase. A three-site microkinetic model captures the observed dynamic behavior and shows that Cu catalysts exhibiting delay times have a less active *CO reservoir that exhibits fast diffusion to active sites. The observed delay times and the estimated *CO reservoir sizes are affected by catalyst preparation, applied potential, and microenvironment (electrolyte cation identity, electrolyte pH, and CO partial pressure). Notably, we estimate that the *CO reservoir surface coverage can be as high as 88 ± 7% on oxide-derived Cu (OD-Cu) at high overpotentials (–1.52 V vs SHE) and this increases in reservoir coverage coincide with increased turnover frequencies to ethylene. We also estimate that *CO can travel substantial distances (up to 10s of nm) prior to desorption or reaction. It appears that active C–C coupling sites by themselves do not control selectivity to C 2+ products in electrochemical COR; the supply of CO to those sites is also a crucial factor. More generally, the overall activity of Cu electrocatalysts cannot be approximated from linear combinations of individual site activities. Future designs must consider the diversity of the catalyst network and account for intersite transportation pathways.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Caribbean deepwater snappers: Application of the bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation in understanding aspects of ecology and life history

Reef fishes have been utilized as food fish throughout the U.S. Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters for centuries, with increasing fishing effort in recent decades. As a result, many species have experienced declines in landings, including deepwater snappers such as queen snapper Etelis oculatus and blackfin snapper Lutjanus buccanella . However, little to no peer-reviewed published research exists on basic life history parameters for either species. Confirming the accuracy of an age estimation method for a fish species is essential for ensuring sustainable fisheries management. This is because in the assessment of fisheries species population age-based parameters, including longevity, age at sexual maturity, growth rate, mortality, age-specific reproductive output, and lifetime reproductive output, are important in understanding overall life history strategies of managed stocks. The past stock assessment on U.S. Caribbean queen snapper utilized an estimated longevity of 8 y, derived from length frequencies for fish from St. Lucia. Blackfin snapper has an estimated longevity of 27 y based on a relatively small study from offshore waters of the southeastern U.S. The focus of our investigation was to estimate maximum longevity of two data-poor species in the U.S. Caribbean. The accuracy of ageing methods was tested via bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation and effects of depth on Δ 14 C in otolith cores and eye lens core values were examined. Results from our work indicate a maximum validated age of 45 y for queen snapper, and 43 y for blackfin snapper. Our findings indicate queen snapper and blackfin snapper are long-lived (> 40 y). The resulting Δ 14 C comparison between eye lens cores and otolith cores has important implications for the study of age validation, specifically when deepwater species are involved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

SCEC/USGS Community Stress-Drop Validation Study: How Spectral Fitting Approaches Influence Measured Source Parameters

Spectral source parameters used to estimate an earthquake’s stress drop (⁠Δσ⁠) can vary significantly across measurement approaches. The Statewide California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey Community Stress‐Drop Validation Study was initiated to compare source parameter estimates, focusing initially on a dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. As part of that validation effort, here we focus on one potential source of uncertainty: whether spectral fitting approaches alone, applied to a common set of spectra from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence result in different source parameter estimates. By using a common set of benchmark spectra analyzed across a consistent frequency band of 1–40 Hz, we eliminate many sources of variability. A subgroup of validation study participants volunteered to estimate the low‐frequency displacement (⁠Ω 0 ⁠) and corner frequency (⁠ƒ c ⁠) by fitting a smooth function to benchmark displacement spectra. Participants used linear‐ or log‐sampled spectra, assumed a Brune or Boatwright spectral model, and applied different misfit criteria. We compare 17 approaches used to estimate ⁠Ω 0 ⁠, ƒ c ⁠, and Δσ for 54 earthquake spectra. Our results reveal that 35% of events have Δσ estimates within a factor of two, whereas others exhibit variations exceeding an order of magnitude. The variability in and can largely be attributed to whether a spectrum is consistent with the smooth function of an idealized simple crack model. The trade‐off between Ω 0 and ƒ c may be more pronounced when using linearly sampled spectra, as higher frequency spectral bumps control the fits. As expected, methods that assumed a Boatwright model tended to have lower Ω 0 and somewhat higher ƒ c compared to those assuming a Brune model, although resulting Δσ estimates are similar. Finally, when compared to the overall validation study results, the fitting approach alone may account for between 5% and 90% (25% on average) of the total variability in spectral Δσ⁠.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing HAARP Beam Pattern for Generation of Strong F‐Region Field‐Aligned Irregularities

Field-aligned irregularities (FAIs) are the signatures of plasma turbulence and convection in the mid- and high-latitude F-region ionosphere, and also provide coherent backscatter targets for HF radars. To serve irregularity generation and characterization studies, we conducted experiments at the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) in August 2023 with the goal of identifying the optimal HAARP beam pattern for reliable generation of intense FAIs over a large geographic region. The HAARP beam patterns we tested were the commonly-used narrow beam, also known as L0, as well as the wider L1 and L2 “twisted” beam patterns. The size and intensity of the FAI region generated by each HAARP beam pattern was quantified using the Kodiak Island Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) radar. Stimulated electromagnetic emissions (SEE) from heater wave-FAI scattering were also recorded using a receiver located near HAARP. The L1 beam pattern was found to produce the strongest SuperDARN backscatter over the largest region. Although the heater frequency was intended to be tuned a few hundred kHz below the F-region critical frequency (foF2) during each experiment, difficulty in estimating foF2 during the campaign likely resulted in HAARP heating at significantly different frequency ranges around foF2 during each experiment. Although this additional free parameter complicated data analysis for this study, the SuperDARN and SEE measurements have led to further inquiry into the role heater frequency plays in the artificial generation of FAIs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modelling integrated quantum frequency processors towards robust quantum networks

Frequency-encoded quantum information offers intriguing opportunities for quantum communications networks, with the quantum frequency processor (QFP) paradigm promising scalable construction of quantum gates. Yet all experimental demonstrations to date have relied on discrete fiber-optic components that occupy significant physical space and impart appreciable loss. We introduce a model for designing QFPs comprising microring resonator-based pulse shapers and integrated phase modulators. We estimate the performance of frequency-bin Hadamard gates, finding high fidelity values sustained for relatively wide-bandwidth frequency bins. Our simple model and can be extended to other material platforms, providing a design tool for future frequency processors in integrated photonics.

Nussbaum, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Slender-body approach for computing second-order wave loads in the frequency domain

This work presents a slender-body approach to evaluate the second-order wave loads acting on a floating structure in the frequency domain. The approach is in the same spirit as the common use of Morison’s equation to approximate the wave loads without solving the radiation/diffraction problem. To do so, we employ Rainey’s equation, which can be seen as an extension of the inertial part of Morison’s equation to include nonlinear effects. We introduce modifications to Rainey’s formulation in order to evaluate wave kinematics at the mean body position instead of the original approach of considering instantaneous displacements. We also propose a simple approximation to partially account for wave scattering effects on the second-order loads based on the analytical solution of a surface-piercing bottom-mounted vertical circular cylinder. Though limited to structures composed of cylinders, this slender-body approach is orders of magnitude faster than computing second-order wave coefficients with a radiation/diffraction code. We implemented this approach for difference-frequency (slow drift) loads in an open-source frequency-domain floating wind turbine model. We present comparisons against results obtained with radiation/diffraction theory for three reference floating wind turbine designs: the OC3-Hywind spar, the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible, and the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible. In general, the results show that the proposed slender-body approach with the correction to approximate wave scattering effects provides useful estimations of the difference-frequency wave loads and the resulting motions of the floater.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Ice Water Content for Winter Storms from Millimeter-Wavelength Radar Measurements Using a Synthesis of Polarimetric and Dual-Frequency Radar Observations

The potential of millimeter-wavelength radar-based ice water content (IWC) estimation is demonstrated using a Ka-band Scanning Polarimetric Radar (KASPR) for the U.S. northeast coast winter storms. Two IWC relations for Ka-band polarimetric radar measurements are proposed: one that uses a combination of the radar reflectivity Z and the estimated total number concentration of snow particles N t and the other based on the joint use of Z, specific differential phase K DP , and the degree of riming f rim . A key element of the algorithms is to obtain the “Rayleigh-equivalent” value of Z measured at the Ka band, i.e., the corresponding Z at a longer radar wavelength for which Rayleigh scattering takes place. This is achieved via polarimetric retrieval of the mean volume diameter D m and incorporating the relationship between the dual-wavelength ratio DWR S/Ka and D m . Those techniques allow for retrievals from single millimeter-wavelength radar measurements and do not necessarily require the dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) measurements, if the DWR–D m relation and Rayleigh assumption for Ka-band K DP are valid. Comparison between the quasivertical profile product obtained from KASPR and the columnar vertical profile product generated from the nearby WSR-88D S-band radar measurements demonstrates that the DWR S/Ka can be estimated from the two close radars without the need for collocated radar beams and synchronized antenna scanning and can be used for determining the Rayleigh-equivalent value of Z. As a result, the performance of the suggested techniques is evaluated for seven winter storms using surface disdrometer and snow accumulation measurements.

Cloud retrieval↗

DOE OSTI2021

Decentralized Data-Driven Estimation of Generator Rotor Speed and Inertia Constant Based on Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filter

This paper proposes an online decentralized and data-driven method for synchronous generator rotor speed and inertia estimation. First, an analytical relationship between the generator terminal voltage/current phasors and its internal rotor speed is derived using the Thevenin equivalent. The parameters of the latter are obtained via a recursive estimator, which allows us to estimate the generator's internal rotor speed from voltage/current phasors without the need for any generator information. Second, we reformulate the equivalent swing equation into the Kalman filter form, which enables us to use a priori-estimated internal rotor speed along with measured real and reactive power injections to obtain an estimate of the inertia for each online synchronous generator. This is achieved through an adaptive unscented Kalman filter. We demonstrate that the use of terminal bus frequency to approximate the rotor speed for inertia estimation by existing methods leads to large estimation biases/errors. Numerical simulations carried out on the IEEE 39-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems reveal that our proposed method is consistently more accurate than existing methods. Moreover, our proposed method is insensitive to both the type and location of system disturbances, and it is robust to different levels of measurement noise.

bus frequency↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the connection between least squares, regularization, and classical shadows

Classical shadows (CS) offer a resource-efficient means to estimate quantum observables, circumventing the need for exhaustive state tomography. Here, we clarify and explore the connection between CS techniques and least squares (LS) and regularized least squares (RLS) methods commonly used in machine learning and data analysis. By formal identification of LS and RLS ``shadows'' completely analogous to those in CS---namely, point estimators calculated from the empirical frequencies of single measurements---we show that both RLS and CS can be viewed as regularizers for the underdetermined regime, replacing the pseudoinverse with invertible alternatives. Through numerical simulations, we evaluate RLS and CS from three distinct angles: the tradeoff in bias and variance, mismatch between the expected and actual measurement distributions, and the interplay between the number of measurements and number of shots per measurement. Compared to CS, RLS attains lower variance at the expense of bias, is robust to distribution mismatch, and is more sensitive to the number of shots for a fixed number of state copies---differences that can be understood from the distinct approaches taken to regularization. Conceptually, our integration of LS, RLS, and CS under a unifying ``shadow'' umbrella aids in advancing the overall picture of CS techniques, while practically our results highlight the tradeoffs intrinsic to these measurement approaches, illuminating the circumstances under which either RLS or CS would be preferred, such as unverified randomness for the former or unbiased estimation for the latter.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimal Frequency-domain Analysis for Spacecraft Time Series: Introducing the Missing-data Multitaper Power Spectrum Estimator

While the Lomb–Scargle periodogram is foundational to astronomy, it has a significant shortcoming: the variance in the estimated power spectrum does not decrease as more data are acquired. Statisticians have a 60 yr history of developing variance-suppressing power spectrum estimators, but most are not used in astronomy because they are formulated for time series with uniform observing cadence and without seasonal or daily gaps. Here we demonstrate how to apply the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to spacecraft data with uniform time intervals between observations but missing data during thruster fires or momentum dumps. The F-test for harmonic components may be applied to multitaper power spectrum estimates to identify statistically significant oscillations that would not rise above a white noise–based false alarm probability. Multitapering improves the dynamic range of the power spectrum estimate and suppresses spectral window artifacts. We show that the multitaper–F-test combination applied to Kepler observations of KIC 6102338 detects differential rotation without requiring iterative sinusoid fitting and subtraction. Significant signals reside at harmonics of both fundamental rotation frequencies and suggest an antisolar rotation profile. Next we use the missing-data multitaper power spectrum estimator to identify the oscillation modes responsible for the complex "scallop-shell" shape of the K2 light curve of EPIC 203354381. We argue that multitaper power spectrum estimators should be used for all time series with regular observing cadence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatial decay of electromagnetic waves from hypervelocity impact plasmas

Due to the high kinetic energy of impactors in space, hypervelocity impacts on spacecraft can ablate spacecraft material and produce plasmas. These plasmas have been observed in ground-based experiments to produce electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) and are suspected to be a cause of spacecraft anomalies. The initial EMP that is produced after plasma formation is replicated using a 2D electromagnetic plasma simulation, consisting of a discontinuous Galerkin, particle-in-cell (DG-PIC) framework. The spontaneous formation of EMPs from an initial quasineutral plasma is consistent with previous works and show behavior similar to that of waves emitted by antennas. The EMP emits from the plasma with a frequency less than the plasma frequency associated with the point of maximum density, showing the importance of the density gradient, and the far-field region of the “plasma antenna” is estimated. From the proportionality between plasma frequency and EMP frequency, there is a direct correlation between plasma density and radiation. Finally, as the plasma density decreases, the EMP frequency decreases, which suggests that several observable phenomena, such as optical flashes, radio frequency emission, and microwave emission, all result from the same plasma-related mechanism within a single hypervelocity impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stability of beta-induced Alfvén eigenmodes (BAE) in DIII-D

Although the stability of ellipticity, toroidal and reversed-shear Alfvén eigenmodes (EAE, TAE, RSAE) are relatively well understood, less is known about the stability of lower-frequency modes such as the beta-induced Alfvén eigenmode (BAE) but, because they are often unstable in present devices and are implicated in fast-ion transport, understanding their stability is vital. BAE stability is studied in primarily weak or reversed shear DIII-D plasmas with sub-Alfvénic deuterium beams. Modes are classified based on electron cyclotron emission, beam emission spectroscopy, magnetics, and interferometer data. The study is limited to the initial two seconds of the discharge, where the evolving q profile provides an effective scan of the dependence of stability upon q. In a dedicated experiment, BAEs are unstable at times in the discharge when the minimum of the safety factor q min is close to a rational number. The observed mode frequencies are usually close to analytic estimates of the BAE accumulation point and the eigenfunction peaks in the vicinity of q min . Unstable BAEs usually occur in bursts that chirp rapidly in frequency. To isolate the importance of thermal and beam gradients in driving the modes, the beam and electron cyclotron heating power is altered for 50–100 ms durations in reproducible discharges. As expected from the resonance condition, BAEs depend sensitively on the beam power and injection geometry. Modes only persist for ~25 ms because the anisotropic beam population only interacts strongly with the modes over a relatively narrow range of q. Lastly, a database of over 1000 beam-heated discharges shows that BAEs are more likely to be unstable when the poloidal beta exceeds 0.5.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variable Blue Straggler Stars in the Open Cluster NGC 6819 Observed in the Kepler “Superstamp” Field

Abstract NGC 6819 is an open cluster of age 2.4 Gyr that was in the NASA Kepler spacecraft’s field of view from 2009 to 2013. The central part of the cluster was observed in a 200 × 200 pixel “superstamp” during these four years in 30 minute cadence photometry, providing a unique, high-precision, long time-series data set. The cluster contains “blue straggler” stars, i.e., stars on the main sequence above the cluster turnoff that should have left the main sequence to become red giants. We present light curves and pulsation frequency analyses derived from custom photometric reductions for five confirmed cluster members—four blue stragglers and one star near the main-sequence turnoff. Two of these stars show a rich spectrum of δ Scuti pulsation modes, with 236 and 124 significant frequencies identified, respectively, while two stars show mainly low-frequency modes, characteristic of γ Doradus variable stars. The fifth star, a known active X-ray binary, shows only several harmonics of two main frequencies. For the two δ Scuti stars, we use a frequency separation–mean density relation to estimate their mean densities, and then use these values along with their effective temperature to derive their stellar masses and radii. For the two stars showing low frequencies, we searched for period-spacing sequences that may be representative of gravity-mode or Rossby-mode sequences, but found no clear sequences. The common age for the cluster members, considered along with the frequencies, will provide valuable constraints for asteroseismic analyses, and may shed light on the origin of the blue stragglers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Abstract Prior research confirmed the substantial bias from using precipitation‐based intensity‐duration‐frequency curves (PREC‐IDF) in design flood estimates and proposed next‐generation IDF curves (NG‐IDF) that represent both rainfall and snow processes in runoff generation. This study improves the NG‐IDF technology for a snow‐dominated test basin in the Sierra Nevada. A well‐validated physics‐based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), is used to continuously simulate snowmelt and streamflow that are used as benchmark data sets to systematically assess the NG‐IDF technology. We find that, for the studied small snow‐dominated basin, the use of standard rainfall hyetographs in the NG‐IDF technology leads to substantial underestimation of design floods. Thus, we propose probabilistic hyetographs that can represent unique patterns of events with different underlying mechanisms. For the test basin where flooding events are generated entirely by snowmelt, we develop a hyetograph that characterizes snowmelt temporal patterns, which greatly improves the performance of NG‐IDF technology in design flood estimates. In contrast to the standard rainfall hyetographs characterized by a symmetrically peaked, bell‐shaped curve, the snowmelt hyetograph displays a more rapid rise (i.e., greater intensity) and a distinct diurnal pattern influenced by solar energy input. The results also show that the uncertainty of hyetography plays an important role in design flood estimation and can have important implications for future flood projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations

The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.

Intensity-duration-frequency curves↗