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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris‐Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Prefire Approach for Probabilistic Assessments of Postfire Debris-Flow Inundation

Increases in wildfire activity and rainfall intensification are driving more postfire debris flows (PFDF) in many regions around the world. PFDFs are most common in the first postfire year and may even occur before a fire is fully controlled. This underscores the importance of assessing postfire hazards before a fire starts. Evaluation of PFDF hazards prior to fire can help strategize interventions lessening the negative effects of future fires. However, debris-flow runout and inundation analyses are not routine in PFDF hazard assessments, partially due to time constraints and substantial uncertainties in boundary conditions. Here, we propose a prefire PFDF inundation assessment framework using a debris-flow runout model based on the Herschel-Bulkley (HB) rheology (HEC-RAS v6.1). We constrain model inputs and parameters using Bayesian posterior analysis, rainfall-runoff simulations, and a debris-flow volume model. We use observations from recent PFDF incidents in northern Arizona, USA, to calibrate model components and then apply our prefire inundation assessment framework in a nearby unburned area. Specifically, we (a) identify yield stress as the most influential factor on inundation extent and arrival time in a HB model, (b) establish posterior distributions for model parameters suitable for forward modeling by leveraging uncertainties in field observations, and (c) implement a predictive forward analysis in an area that has not burned recently to evaluate PFDF inundation under several future fire scenarios. This study improves our ability to assess postfire debris-flow hazards before a fire begins and provides guidance for future applications of single-phase rheological models when assessing PFDF hazards.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

CloudSat-Constrained Cloud Ice Water Path and Cloud Top Height Retrievals from MHS 157 and 183.3 GHz Radiances

Ice water path (IWP) and cloud top height (ht) are two of the key variables in determining cloud radiative and thermodynamical properties in climate models. Large uncertainty remains among IWP measurements from satellite sensors, in large part due to the assumptions made for cloud microphysics in these retrievals. In this study, we develop a fast algorithm to retrieve IWP from the 157, 183.3+/-3 and 190.3 GHz radiances of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) such that the MHS cloud ice retrieval is consistent with CloudSat IWP measurements. This retrieval is obtained by constraining the empirical forward models between collocated and coincident measurements of CloudSat IWP and MHS cloud-induced radiance depression (Tcir) at these channels. The empirical forward model is represented by a lookup table (LUT) of Tcir-IWP relationships as a function of ht and the frequency channel.With ht simultaneously retrieved, the IWP is found to be more accurate. The useful range of the MHS IWP retrieval is between 0.5 and 10 kg/sq m, and agrees well with CloudSat in terms of the normalized probability density function (PDF). Compared to the empirical model, current operational radiative transfer models (RTMs) still have significant uncertainties in characterizing the observed Tcir-IWP relationships. Therefore, the empirical LUT method developed here remains an effective approach to retrieving ice cloud properties from the MHS-like microwave channels.

cloud top height↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of a Computational Framework for Bayesian Inverse Problems: Ensemble Kalman Updates and MAP Estimators under Mesh Refinement

This paper analyzes a popular computational framework to solve infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems, discretizing the prior and the forward model in a finite-dimensional weighted inner product space. We demonstrate the benefit of working on a weighted space by establishing operator-norm bounds for finite element and graph-based discretizations of Matérn-type priors and deconvolution forward models. For linear-Gaussian inverse problems, we develop a general theory to characterize the error in the approximation to the posterior. We also embed the computational framework into ensemble Kalman methods and MAP estimators for nonlinear inverse problems. Furthermore, our operator-norm bounds for prior discretizations guarantee the scalability and accuracy of these algorithms under mesh refinement.

Bayesian inverse problem↗
NASA NTRS2022

Effective Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Aerosol Remote Sensing Over Ocean

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements can enable detailed characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties and improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere–ocean system. Theoretical pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties based on error propagation have been used to quantify retrieval performance and determine the quality of data products. However, standard error propagation techniques in high-dimensional retrievals may not always represent true retrieval errors well due to issues such as local minima and the nonlinear dependence of the forward model on the retrieved parameters near the solution. In this work, we analyze these theoretical uncertainty estimates and validate them using a flexible Monte Carlo approach. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on efficient neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification on both synthetic HARP2 (Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2) and AirHARP (airborne version of HARP2) datasets. In addition, for practical application of the uncertainty evaluation technique in operational data processing, we use the automatic differentiation method to calculate derivatives analytically based on the neural network models. Both the speed and accuracy associated with uncertainty quantification for MAP retrievals are addressed in this study. Pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties are further evaluated for the real AirHARP field campaign data. The uncertainty quantification methods and results can be used to evaluate the quality of data products, as well as guide MAP algorithm development for current and future satellite systems such as NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission.

PACE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Correction and verification of x-ray imaging crystal spectrometer analysis on Wendelstein 7-X through x-ray ray tracing

X-ray ray tracing is used to develop ion-temperature corrections for the analysis of the X-ray Imaging Crystal Spectrometer (XICS) used at Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) and perform verification on the analysis methods. The XICS is a powerful diagnostic able to measure ion-temperature, electron-temperature, plasma flow, and impurity charge state densities. While these systems are relatively simple in design, accurate characterization of the instrumental response and validation of analysis techniques are difficult to perform experimentally due to the requirement of extended x-ray sources. For this reason, a ray tracing model has been developed that allows characterization of the spectrometer and verification of the analysis methods while fully considering the real geometry of the XICS system and W7-X plasma. Through the use of ray tracing, several important corrections have been found that must be accounted for in order to accurately reconstruct the ion-temperature profiles. The sources of these corrections are described along with their effect on the analyzed profiles. The implemented corrections stem from three effects: (1) effect of sub-pixel intensity distribution during de-curving and spatial binning, (2) effect of sub-pixel intensity distribution during forward model evaluation and generation of residuals, and (3) effect of defocus and spherical aberrations on the instrumental response. Possible improvements to the forward model and analysis procedures are explored, along with a discussion of trade-offs in terms of computational complexity. Finally, the accuracy of the tomographic inversion technique in stellarator geometry is investigated, providing for the first time a verification exercise for inversion accuracy in stellarator geometry and a complete XICS analysis tool-chain.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2000

Preliminary Results from an Assimilation of Saharan Dust Using TOMS Radiances and the GOCART Model

At NASA Goddard we are developing a global aerosol data assimilation system that combines advances in remote sensing and modeling of atmospheric aerosols. The goal is to provide high resolution, 3-D aerosol distributions to the research community. Our first step is to develop a simple assimilation system for Saharan mineral aerosol. The Goddard Chemistry and Aerosol Radiation model (GOCART) provides accurate 3-D mineral aerosol size distributions. Surface mobilization, wet and dry deposition, convective and long-range transport are all driven by assimilated fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-DAS. Our version of GOCART transports sizes from .08-10 microns and only simulates Saharan dust. We draw the assimilation to two observables in this study: the TOMS aerosol index (Al) which is directly related to the ratio of the 340 and 380 radiances and the 380 radiance alone. The forward model that simulates the observables requires the aerosol optical thickness, the single scattering albedo and the height of the aerosol layer from the GOCART fields. The forward model also requires a refractive index for the dust. We test three index values to see which best fits the TOMS observables. These are 1) for Saharan dust reported by Patterson, 2) for a mixture of Saharan dust and a highly reflective material (sea salt or sulfate) and 3) for pure illite. The assimilation works best assuming either pure illite or the dust mixture. Our assimilation cycle first determines values of the aerosol index (Al) and the radiance at 380 nm based on the GOCART aerosol fields. Differences between the observed and GOCART model calculated Al and 380 nm radiance are first analyzed horizontally using the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). A quasi-Newton iteration is then performed to produce analyzed 3D aerosol fields according to parameterized background and observation error covariances. We only assimilate observations into the the GOCART model over regions of Africa and the Atlantic where mineral aerosols are dominant and carbonaceous aerosols are minimal.

Weaver, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Snow Process Estimation Over the Extratropical Andes Using a Data Assimilation Framework Integrating MERRA Data and Landsat Imagery

A data assimilation framework was implemented with the objective of obtaining high resolution retrospective snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates over several Andean study basins. The framework integrates Landsat fractional snow covered area (fSCA) images, a land surface and snow depletion model, and the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis as a forcing data set. The outputs are SWE and fSCA fields (1985-2015) at a resolution of 90 m that are consistent with the observed depletion record. Verification using in-situ snow surveys showed significant improvements in the accuracy of the SWE estimates relative to forward model estimates, with increases in correlation (0.49-0.87) and reductions in root mean square error (0.316 m to 0.129 m) and mean error (-0.221 m to 0.009 m). A sensitivity analysis showed that the framework is robust to variations in physiography, fSCA data availability and a priori precipitation biases. Results from the application to the headwater basin of the Aconcagua River showed how the forward model versus the fSCA-conditioned estimate resulted in different quantifications of the relationship between runoff and SWE, and different correlation patterns between pixel-wise SWE and ENSO. The illustrative results confirm the influence that ENSO has on snow accumulation for Andean basins draining into the Pacific, with ENSO explaining approximately 25% of the variability in near-peak (1 September) SWE values. Our results show how the assimilation of fSCA data results in a significant improvement upon MERRA-forced modeled SWE estimates, further increasing the utility of the MERRA data for high-resolution snow modeling applications.

SWE↗
NASA NTRS2004

Comparison of Local Scale Measured and Modeled Brightness Temperatures and Snow Parameters from the CLPX 2003 by Means of a Dense Medium Radiative Transfer Theory Model

Microwave remote sensing offers distinct advantages for observing the cryosphere. Solar illumination is not required, and spatial and temporal coverage are excellent from polar-orbiting satellites. Passive microwave measurements are sensitive to the two most useful physical quantities for many hydrological applications: physical temperature and water content/state. Sensitivity to the latter is a direct result of the microwave sensitivity to the dielectric properties of natural media, including snow, ice, soil (frozen or thawed), and vegetation. These considerations are factors motivating the development of future cryospheric satellite remote sensing missions, continuing and improving on a 26-year microwave measurement legacy. Perhaps the biggest issues regarding the use of such satellite measurements involve how to relate parameter values at spatial scales as small as a hectare to observations with sensor footprints that may be up to 25 x 25 km. The NASA Cold-land Processes Field Experiment (CLPX) generated a dataset designed to enhance understanding of such scaling issues. CLPX observations were made in February (dry snow) and March (wet snow), 2003 in Colorado, USA, at scales ranging from plot scale to 25 x 25 km satellite footprints. Of interest here are passive microwave observations from ground-based, airborne, and satellite sensors, as well as meteorological and snowpack measurements that will enable studies of the effects of spatial heterogeneity of surface conditions on the observations. Prior to performing such scaling studies, an evaluation of snowpack forward modelling at the plot scale (least heterogeneous scale) is in order. This is the focus of this paper. Many forward models of snow signatures (brightness temperatures) have been developed over the years. It is now recognized that a dense medium radiative transfer (DMRT) treatment represents a high degree of physical fidelity for snow modeling, yet dense medium models are particularly sensitive to snowpack structural parameters such as grain size, density, and depth---parameters that may vary substantially within a snowpack. Microwave radiometric data and snow pit measurements collected at the Local-Scale Observation Site (LSOS) during the third Intensive Observation Period (IOP3) of the CLPX have been used to test the capabilities of a DMRT model using the Quasi Crystalline Approximation with Coherent Potential (QCA-CP). The radiometric measurements were made by the University of Tokyo s Ground Based Microwave Radiometer-7 (GBMR-7) system. We evaluate the degree to which a DMRT-based model can accurately reproduce the GBMR-7 brightness temperatures at different frequencies and incidence angles.

Tedescol, Marco↗
NASA NTRS2009

Uncertain Representations of Sub-Grid Pollutant Transport in Chemistry-Transport Models and Impacts on Long-Range Transport and Global Composition

Sub-grid transport, by convection and turbulence, is known to play an important role in lofting pollutants from their source regions. Consequently, the long-range transport and climatology of simulated atmospheric composition are impacted. This study uses the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric model to study pollutant transport. The baseline model uses a Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme that represents convection through a sequence of linearly entraining cloud plumes characterized by unique detrainment levels. Thermodynamics, moisture and trace gases are transported in the same manner. Various approximate forms of trace-gas transport are implemented, in which the box-averaged cloud mass fluxes from RAS are used with different numerical approaches. Substantial impacts on forward-model simulations of CO (using a linearized chemistry) are evident. In particular, some aspects of simulations using a diffusive form of sub-grid transport bear more resemblance to space-biased CO observations than do the baseline simulations with RAS transport. Implications for transport in the real atmosphere will be discussed. Another issue of importance is that many adjoint/inversion computations use simplified representations of sub-grid transport that may be inconsistent with the forward models: implications will be discussed. Finally, simulations using a complex chemistry model in GEOS-5 (in place of the linearized CO model) are underway: noteworthy results from this simulation will be mentioned.

Pawson, Steven↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards physics-inspired data-driven weather forecasting: integrating data assimilation with a deep spatial-transformer-based U-NET in a case study with ERA5

Abstract. There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), e.g., using convolutional neural networks such as U-NET that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose three components, inspired by physics, to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their forecast accuracy. These components are (1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of U-NET to capture rotation and scaling transformation in the latent space for spatiotemporal data, (2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and (3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit and feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the spatial-transformer-based U-NET (U-STN) clearly outperforms the U-NET, e.g., improving the forecast skill by 45 %. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. This DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large (O(1000)) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promise; for example, it reduces the average error by factors of 2–3. These results show the benefits and feasibility of these three components, which are flexible and can be used in a variety of DDWP setups. Furthermore, while here we focus on weather forecasting, the three components can be readily adopted for other parts of the Earth system, such as ocean and land, for which there is a rapid growth of data and need for forecast and assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

LATTE: Los Alamos TravelTime package based on Eikonal equation

This Fortran code focuses on traveltime computation and tomography based on eikonal equation. Specifically, the package provides three major functionalities: (1) forward modeling of traveltime from single-point or ensemble source based on factorized eikonal equation, (2) adjoint-state first-arrival traveltime tomography based on picked first arrival traveltime using steepest descent, conjugate gradient, or limited-memory BFGS inversion scheme, and (3) adjoint-state joint transmission-reflection tomography based on picked first-arrival and reflection traveltimes. The package applies to forward modeling and tomography based on traveltime in 2D and 3D isotropic regular-grid models. We name this package LATTE – Los Alamos TravelTime package based on Eikonal equation. * The code is for accompanying a journal paper under preparation. The paper will be submitted via LA-UR separately later.

Gao, Kai↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of artificial intelligence for application in contemporary materials science

Abstract Contemporary materials science has seen an increasing application of various artificial intelligence techniques in an attempt to accelerate the materials discovery process using forward modeling for predictive analysis and inverse modeling for optimization and design. Over the last decade or so, the increasing availability of computational power and large materials datasets has led to a continuous evolution in the complexity of the techniques used to advance the frontier. In this Review, we provide a high-level overview of the evolution of artificial intelligence in contemporary materials science for the task of materials property prediction in forward modeling. Each stage of evolution is accompanied by an outline of some of the commonly used methodologies and applications. We conclude the work by providing potential future ideas for further development of artificial intelligence in materials science to facilitate the discovery, design, and deployment workflow. Graphical abstract

Materials Science↗
DOE OSTI2023

Particle inertial effects on radar Doppler spectra simulation

Abstract. Radar Doppler spectra observations provide a wealth of information about cloud and precipitation microphysics and dynamics. The interpretation of these measurements depends on our ability to simulate these observations accurately using a forward model. The effect of small-scale turbulence on the radar Doppler spectra shape has been traditionally treated by implementing the convolution process on the hydrometeor reflectivity spectrum and environmental turbulence. This approach assumes that all the particles in the radar sampling volume respond the same to turbulent-scale velocity fluctuations and neglects the particle inertial effect. Here, we investigate the inertial effects of liquid-phase particles on the forward modeled radar Doppler spectra. A physics-based simulation (PBS) is developed to demonstrate that big droplets, with large inertia, are unable to follow the rapid change of the velocity field in a turbulent environment. These findings are incorporated into a new radar Doppler spectra simulator. Comparison between the traditional and newly formulated radar Doppler spectra simulators indicates that the conventional simulator leads to an unrealistic broadening of the spectrum, especially in a strong turbulent environment. This study provides clear evidence to illustrate the droplet inertial effect on radar Doppler spectrum and develops a physics-based simulator framework to accurately emulate the Doppler spectrum for a given droplet size distribution (DSD) in a turbulence field. The proposed simulator has various potential applications for the cloud and precipitation studies, and it provides a valuable tool to decode the cloud microphysical and dynamical properties from Doppler radar observation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Revised Thorium Abundances for Lunar Red Spots

Lunar red spots are features on the nearside of the Moon that are characterized by high albedo and by a strong absorption in the ultraviolet. These red spots include the Gruithuisen domes, the Mairan domes, Hansteen Alpha, the southern portion of Montes Riphaeus, Darney Chi and Tau, Helmet, and an area near the Lassell crater. It has been suggested that many of the red spots are extrusive, nonmare, volcanic features that could be composed of an evolved lithlogy enriched in thorium. In fact, Hawke et al. used morphological characteristics to show that Hansteen Alpha is a nonmare volcanic construct. However, because the apparent Th abundances (6 - 7 ppm) were lower than that expected for evolved rock types, Hawke et al. concluded that Hansteen Alpha was composed of an unknown rock type. Subsequent studies by Lawrence et al. used improved knowledge of the Th spatial distribution for small area features on the lunar surface to revisit the interpretation of Th abundances at the Hansteen Alpha red spot. As part of their study, Lawrence et al. used a forward modeling technique to show that the Th abundance at Hansteen Alpha is not 6 ppm, but is more likely closer to 25 ppm, a value consistent with evolved lithologies. This positive correlation between the morphology and composition of Hansteen Alpha provides support for the presence of evolved lithologies on the lunar surface. It is possible, however, that Hansteen Alpha represents an isolated occurrence of non-mare volcanism. That is why we have chosen to use the forward modeling technique of Lawrence et al. to investigate the Th abundances at other lunar red spots, starting with the Gruithuisen domes. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Hagerty, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

High Resolution Doppler Lidar

This Grant supported the development of an incoherent lidar system to measure winds and aerosols in the lower atmosphere. During this period the following activities occurred: (1) an active feedback system was developed to improve the laser frequency stability; (2) a detailed forward model of the instrument was developed to take into account many subtle effects, such as detector non-linearity; (3) a non-linear least squares inversion method was developed to recover the Doppler shift and aerosol backscatter without requiring assumptions about the molecular component of the signal; (4) a study was done of the effects of systematic errors due to multiple etalon misalignment. It was discovered that even for small offsets and high aerosol loadings, the wind determination can be biased by as much as 1 m/s. The forward model and inversion process were modified to account for this effect; and (5) the lidar measurements were validated using rawinsonde balloon measurements. The measurements were found to be in agreement within 1-2 m/s.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Transients in Pacific/North American Plate Boundary Deformation: Synthesis and Modeling of GPS and Borehole Strain Observations

This is the Final Technical Report on research conducted between 1 June 1997 and 14 September 2001 entitled "Transients in Pacific/North American plate boundary deformation: Synthesis and modeling of GPS and borehole strain observations." As the project title implies, our effort involved a geodetic study of strain transients, i.e., temporal variations in deformation rates, that occur within plate boundary zones and their relationship to earthquakes and plate motions. Important transients occur during and following large earthquakes, and there are also strain transients not apparently associated with earthquakes. A particularly intriguing class of transients, for which there is a modest but growing list of examples, are preseismic anomalies. Such earthquake precursors, if further documented and understood, would have obvious importance for earthquake hazard mitigation. Because the timescales for these diverse transients range over at least 6 orders of magnitude (minutes to years), no single geodetic technique is optimum. We therefore undertook a systematic synthesis of Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) and borehole strainmeter data in three areas in California where there are adequate numbers of both types of instruments (or their equivalent): the San Francisco Bay region (within the Bay Area Regional Deformation network), southern California (within the Southern California Integrated GPS Network), and Parkfield (where a two-color laser system provides a proxy for continuous GPS measurements). An integral component of our study was the elucidation of the physical mechanisms by which such transients occur and propagate. We therefore initiated the development of multiple forward models, using two independent approaches. In the first, we explored the response to specified earthquake slip in viscoelastic models that incorporated failure criteria and the geometry of major faults in California. In the second approach, we examined the dynamical response of a complex rheological medium to the application of a far-field stress imposed by plate motions. The forward models were used both to gain insight into the range of strain transients to be expected under different assumed mechanical conditions and to develop representations for strain fields that allow GPS, borehole, and other strain data to be combined in a self-consistent, yet well-determined, manner. The models also provided a basis for hypothesis testing, by which data from a strain transient well characterized by GPS and borehole observations were utilized to distinguish among competing candidates for the causative physical mechanism and the governing physical characteristics. During the three years of this project, continued to a fourth year through a no-cost extension of the grant, we published 14 papers and presented or co-authored 37 papers at national scientific meetings.

Solomon, Sean C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using neutrons and x rays to measure plasma conditions in a solid sphere of deuterated polyethylene compressed to densities of 35 g/cc at temperatures of 2 keV and pressures of 40 Gbar

This paper describes an experiment that shock compresses the center of a solid deuterated polyethylene sphere, CD 2 , to densities of 35 g/cc and temperatures of 2 keV with corresponding pressure of 40 Gbar. The design employs a strong spherically converging shock launched through a solid ball of material using a Hohlraum radiation drive. As the shock coalesces at the center it produces a hot spot that we characterize by measuring the x-ray self-emission and 2.45 MeV neutrons emitted. Two-dimensional images and time-resolved measurements of the x rays emitted determine the size and time duration of the hot spot, leading to an estimated 2k eV electron temperature. The neutron time of flight spectrometer measures an average ion temperature of 1.06 ± 0.15 keV and neutron yield of 7.0 (±0.5) × 10 9 DD neutrons. Our new distribution function tool enables us to create a forward model of the experimental data based on 1D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations, leading to a better understanding of the plasma conditions that produce the measured neutrons and x rays. Furthermore, our simulations indicate that the x rays are produced in a short-lived hot-dense core over tens of picoseconds, whereas the neutron emission continues for about 200 ps, as the hot core starts to expand, thereby leading to a lower mean temperature of the plasma during neutron production. This finding is in agreement with the experimental data, and we therefore conclude that the forward-modeling is a useful tool for inferring the conditions of the hot spot in a laser-driven implosion during burn.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗