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Slip and Dilation Tendency Analysis of McGinness Hills Geothermal Area

Slip and Dilation Tendency in focus areas Critically stressed fault segments have a relatively high likelihood of acting as fluid flow conduits (Sibson, 1994). As such, the tendency of a fault segment to slip (slip tendency; Ts; Morris et al., 1996) or to dilate (dilation tendency; Td; Ferrill et al., 1999) provides an indication of which faults or fault segments within a geothermal system are critically stressed and therefore likely to transmit geothermal fluids. The slip tendency of a surface is defined by the ratio of shear stress to normal stress on that surface: Ts = T / on (Morris et al., 1996). Dilation tendency is defined by the stress acting normal to a given surface: Td = (o1-on) / (o1-o3) (Ferrill et al., 1999). Slip and dilation were calculated using 3DStress (Southwest Research Institute). Slip and dilation tendency are both unitless ratios of the resolved stresses applied to the fault plane by ambient stress conditions. Values range from a maximum of 1, a fault plane ideally oriented to slip or dilate under ambient stress conditions to zero, a fault plane with no potential to slip or dilate. Slip and dilation tendency values were calculated for each fault in the focus study areas at, McGinness Hills, Neal Hot Springs, Patua, Salt Wells, San Emidio, and Tuscarora on fault traces. As dip is not well constrained or unknown for many faults mapped in within these we made these calculations using the dip for each fault that would yield the maximum slip tendency or dilation tendency. As such, these results should be viewed as maximum tendency of each fault to slip or dilate. The resulting along-fault and fault-to-fault variation in slip or dilation potential is a proxy for along fault and fault-to-fault variation in fluid flow conduit potential. Stress Magnitudes and directions Stress field variation within each focus area was approximated based on regional published data and the world stress database (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2010; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012; Moeck et al., 2010; Moos and Ronne, 2010 and Reinecker et al., 2005) as well as local stress information if applicable. For faults within these focus systems we applied either a normal faulting stress regime where the vertical stress (sv) is larger than the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (sv>shmax>shmin) or strike-slip faulting stress regime where the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) is larger than the vertical stress (sv) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (shmax >sv>shmin) depending on the general tectonic province of the system. Based on visual inspection of the limited stress magnitude data in the Great Basin we used magnitudes such that shmin/shmax = .527 and shmin/sv= .46, which are consistent with complete and partial stress field determinations from Desert Peak, Coso, the Fallon area and Dixie valley (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2011; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012). Slip and dilation tendency for the McGinness Hills geothermal field was calculated based on the faults mapped McGinness Hills area (Siler 2012, unpublished). The McGinness Hills area lies in the Basin and Range Province, as such we applied a normal faulting stress regime to the McGinness area faults, with a minimum horizontal stress direction oriented 115, based on inspection of local and regional stress determinations, as explained above. Under these stress conditions north-northeast striking, steeply dipping fault segments have the highest dilation tendency, while north-northeast striking 60 degrees dipping fault segments have the highest tendency to slip. The McGinness Hills geothermal system is characterized by a left-step in a north-northeast striking west-dipping fault system...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Distributed asynchronous microprocessor architectures in fault tolerant integrated flight systems

The paper discusses the implementation of fault tolerant digital flight control and navigation systems for rotorcraft application. It is shown that in implementing fault tolerance at the systems level using advanced LSI/VLSI technology, aircraft physical layout and flight systems requirements tend to define a system architecture of distributed, asynchronous microprocessors in which fault tolerance can be achieved locally through hardware redundancy and/or globally through application of analytical redundancy. The effects of asynchronism on the execution of dynamic flight software is discussed. It is shown that if the asynchronous microprocessors have knowledge of time, these errors can be significantly reduced through appropiate modifications of the flight software. Finally, the papear extends previous work to show that through the combined use of time referencing and stable flight algorithms, individual microprocessors can be configured to autonomously tolerate intermittent faults.

Dunn, W. R.↗

Slip and Dilation Tendency Analysis of the Patua Geothermal Area

Critically stressed fault segments have a relatively high likelihood of acting as fluid flow conduits (Sibson, 1994). As such, the tendency of a fault segment to slip (slip tendency; Ts; Morris et al., 1996) or to dilate (dilation tendency; Td; Ferrill et al., 1999) provides an indication of which faults or fault segments within a geothermal system are critically stressed and therefore likely to transmit geothermal fluids. The slip tendency of a surface is defined by the ratio of shear stress to normal stress on that surface: Ts = T / on (Morris et al., 1996). Dilation tendency is defined by the stress acting normal to a given surface: Td = (o1-on) / (o1-o3) (Ferrill et al., 1999). Slip and dilation were calculated using 3DStress (Southwest Research Institute). Slip and dilation tendency are both unitless ratios of the resolved stresses applied to the fault plane by ambient stress conditions. Values range from a maximum of 1, a fault plane ideally oriented to slip or dilate under ambient stress conditions to zero, a fault plane with no potential to slip or dilate. Slip and dilation tendency values were calculated for each fault in the focus study areas at, McGinness Hills, Neal Hot Springs, Patua, Salt Wells, San Emidio, and Tuscarora on fault traces. As dip is not well constrained or unknown for many faults mapped in within these we made these calculations using the dip for each fault that would yield the maximum slip tendency or dilation tendency. As such, these results should be viewed as maximum tendency of each fault to slip or dilate. The resulting along-fault and fault-to-fault variation in slip or dilation potential is a proxy for along fault and fault-to-fault variation in fluid flow conduit potential. Stress Magnitudes and directions Stress field variation within each focus area was approximated based on regional published data and the world stress database (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2010; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012; Moeck et al., 2010; Moos and Ronne, 2010 and Reinecker et al., 2005) as well as local stress information if applicable. For faults within these focus systems we applied either a normal faulting stress regime where the vertical stress (sv) is larger than the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (sv>shmax>shmin) or strike-slip faulting stress regime where the maximum horizontal stress (shmax) is larger than the vertical stress (sv) which is larger than the minimum horizontal stress (shmax >sv>shmin) depending on the general tectonic province of the system. Based on visual inspection of the limited stress magnitude data in the Great Basin we used magnitudes such that shmin/shmax = .527 and shmin/sv= .46, which are consistent with complete and partial stress field determinations from Desert Peak, Coso, the Fallon area and Dixie valley (Hickman et al., 2000; Hickman et al., 1998 Robertson-Tait et al., 2004; Hickman and Davatzes, 2011; Davatzes and Hickman, 2006; Blake and Davatzes 2011; Blake and Davatzes, 2012). Slip and dilation tendency analysis for the Patua geothermal system was calculated based on faults mapped in the Hazen Quadrangle (Faulds et al., 2011). Patua lies near the margin between the Basin and Range province, which is characterized by west-northwest directed extension and the Walker Lane province, characterized by west-northwest directed dextral shear. As such, the Patua area likely has been affected by tectonic stress associated with either or both of stress regimes over geologic time. In order to characterize this stress variation we calculated slip tendency at Patua for both normal faulting and strike slip faulting stress regimes. Based on examination of regional and local stress data (as explained above) we applied at shmin direction of 105 to Patua. Whether the vertical stress (sv) magnitude is larger than th...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Characterizing Stress Orientations in Southern Kansas

We repot that Induced seismicity predominantly occurs along faults that are optimally oriented to the local principal compressive stress direction, and the characterization of these stress orientations is an important component of understanding seismic hazards. The seismicity rate in southern Kansas rapidly increased in 2013 primarily due to the disposal of large volumes of wastewater into the Arbuckle Group. Previously, local stress orientations in this area were poorly constrained, which limited our understanding of the complex faulting and diverse earthquake mechanisms in this region. We use shear-wave splitting and focal mechanism inversion techniques to create multiple, independent estimates of maximum horizontal stress directions (S Hmax ) and their spatial variation across the study area. We then create an integrated model of stress orientations for southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma using our local results in conjunction with previous, regional stress orientation estimates. We find that S Hmax in both southern Kansas and central Oklahoma exhibits an east-northeast (~N78°E) orientation, and these regions bound a northeast (~N59°E) rotation within a ~20km area in northern Oklahoma near the Nemaha ridge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS) in Elasto-Plastic Fault Zones With a Hybrid Finite Element Spectral Boundary Integral Scheme

We present a coupled finite element spectral boundary integral framework for modeling sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip on a 2-D planar rate-and-state fault with off-fault visco-plastic response in the plane strain approximation. The model resolves both slow aseismic deformation and inertia effects during rapid slip. As an application, we perform two sets of simulations with different choices of cohesion to explore the co-evolution of fault slip, bulk plasticity and local stress fields. The first set implements a relatively large value of the cohesion parameter, which results in limiting inelastic strain accumulation to dynamic rupture phases. The second set implements a smaller cohesion, allowing for plastic strain to accumulate in both seismic and aseismic phases. For the first model, our results indicate that the extent and distribution of plastic strain depend on the angle of maximum compressive principal stress. At larger angles, inelastic strain accumulates on the extensional side of a dynamically propagating rupture. At smaller angles, the extent of plasticity is limited to the compressional side of the domain. At smaller cohesion values, off-fault plasticity may occur during aseismic slip, which alters the nucleation characteristics and earthquake sequence pattern. Furthermore, our results at lower cohesion values indicate that plastic strain accumulation may occur in both the extensional and compressional sides of the off-fault bulk even at higher angles of maximum compression. In conclusion, this produces damage patterns that deviate from the traditional off-fault fan-like distribution observed in dynamic rupture simulations and emphasizes the significance of long-term deformation in interpreting observations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geologic influence on induced seismicity: Constraints from potential field data in Oklahoma

Abstract Recent Oklahoma seismicity shows a regional correlation with increased wastewater injection activity, but local variations suggest that some areas are more likely to exhibit induced seismicity than others. We combine geophysical and drill hole data to map subsurface geologic features in the crystalline basement, where most earthquakes are occurring, and examine probable contributing factors. We find that most earthquakes are located where the crystalline basement is likely composed of fractured intrusive or metamorphic rock. Areas with extrusive rock or thick (>4 km) sedimentary cover exhibit little seismicity, even in high injection rate areas, similar to deep sedimentary basins in Michigan and western North Dakota. These differences in seismicity may be due to variations in permeability structure: within intrusive rocks, fluids can become narrowly focused in fractures and faults, causing an increase in local pore fluid pressure, whereas more distributed pore space in sedimentary and extrusive rocks may relax pore fluid pressure.

Shah, Anjana K.↗

Late Quaternary Tectonics, Incision, and Landscape Evolution of the Calchaquí River Catchment, Eastern Cordillera, NW Argentina

Unraveling the relative impacts of climate, tectonics, and lithology on landscape evolution is complicated by the temporal and spatial scale over which observations are made. We use soil and desert pavement classification, longitudinal river profiles, 10 Be–derived catchment mean modern and paleo–erosion rates, and vertical incision rates to test whether, if we restrict our analyses to a spatial scale over which climate is relatively invariant, tectonic and lithologic factors will dominate the late Quaternary landscape evolution of the Calchaquí River Catchment, NW Argentina. We find that the spatial distribution of erosion rates, normalized channel steepness indices, and concavity indices reflect active tectonics and lithologic resistance. Knickpoints are spatially coincident with tectonic and/or lithologic discontinuities, indicating local base–level control by faulting. Catchment mean erosion rates, ranging from 22.5 ± 2.6 to 121.9 ± 13.7 mm/kyr, and paleo–erosion rates, ranging from 56 +43 / –19 to 105 +60 / –33 mm/kyr, are similar, possibly suggesting that Quaternary climate changes have not had a strong enough influence on erosion rates to be detected using cosmogenic 10 Be. However, punctuated abandonment of pediment and strath terraces at 43.6 +15.0 / –11.6 , 91.2 +54.2 / –22.2 , and 151 +92.7 / –34.1 ka and disparities between vertical incision rates and catchment mean erosion rates could suggest periods of landscape transience, possibly reflecting climate cyclicity. Furthermore, our results emphasize the role of tectonic uplift and lithologic contrasts in shaping long–term erosion rates and channel morphology at the relatively local scale of the Calchaqui River Catchment, in contrast to regional–scale studies which find precipitation to exert the dominant control.

10Be catchment mean erosion rates↗

Glacier Ice Mass Fluctuations and Fault Instability in Tectonically Active Southern Alaska

Across southern Alaska the northwest directed subduction of the Pacific plate is accompanied by accretion of the Yakutat terrane to continental Alaska. This has led to high tectonic strain rates and dramatic topographic relief of more than 5000 meters within 15 km of the Gulf of Alaska coast. The glaciers of this area are extensive and include large glaciers undergoing wastage (glacier retreat and thinning) and surges. The large glacier ice mass changes perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. We estimated surface displacements and stresses associated with ice mass fluctuations and tectonic loading by examining GPS geodetic observations and numerical model predictions. Although the glacial fluctuations perturb the tectonic stress field, especially at shallow depths, the largest contribution to ongoing crustal deformation is horizontal tectonic strain due to plate convergence. Tectonic forces are thus the primary force responsible for major earthquakes. However, for geodetic sites located < 10-20 km from major ice mass fluctuations, the changes of the solid Earth due to ice loading and unloading are an important aspect of interpreting geodetic results. The ice changes associated with Bering Glacier s most recent surge cycle are large enough to cause discernible surface displacements. Additionally, ice mass fluctuations associated with the surge cycle can modify the short-term seismicity rates in a local region. For the thrust faulting environment of the study region a large decrease in ice load may cause an increase in seismic rate in a region close to failure whereas ice loading may inhibit thrust faulting.

SauberRosenberg, Jeanne M.↗

Analysis of fault-tolerant neurocontrol architectures

The fault-tolerance of analog parallel distributed implementations of a multivariable aircraft neurocontroller is analyzed by simulating weight and neuron failures in a simplified scheme of analog processing based on the functional architecture of the ETANN chip (Electrically Trainable Artificial Neural Network). The neural information processing is found to be only partially distributed throughout the set of weights of the neurocontroller synthesized with the backpropagation algorithm. Although the degree of distribution of the neural processing, and consequently the fault-tolerance of the neurocontroller, could be enhanced using Locally Distributed Weight and Neuron Approaches, a satisfactory level of fault-tolerance could only be obtained by retraining the degrated VLSI neurocontroller. The possibility of maintaining neurocontrol performance and stability in the presence of single weight of neuron failures was demonstrated through an automated retraining procedure of the neurocontroller based on a pre-programmed choice and sequence of the training parameters.

Troudet, T.↗

Coupled geomechanical investigation of depletion-induced fault reactivation

Fault reactivation during subsurface fluid production pose significant challenges to safe and sustainable resource extraction. Here, this study presents a three-dimensional coupled geomechanical framework to investigate the processes driving fault reactivation, capturing the interactions between reservoir dynamics and geomechanical responses. Verification against theoretical estimations based on linear poroelasticity confirms the model's capacity in representing reservoir background stress responses. However, the study reveals that relying solely on background stress states can underestimate or overestimate fault reactivation potential, emphasizing the importance of including localized stress perturbations such as differential compaction and stress redistribution. Applied to a fault (M1) inspired by the geological characteristics of the Groningen field, the model shows slip initiation at 2965 m depth with 16.0 MPa depletion, aligning with field observations where seismicity occurred at approximately 3 km depth after 15.8 MPa depletion. Parametric studies reveal: (1) inelastic reservoir compaction delays fault reactivation and mitigates fault slip by reducing stress concentration, (2) higher intermediate in-situ stress magnitudes decrease the Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) increase rate and reduce fault slip, (3) larger fault offsets amplify shear stress near the offset zone, promoting earlier reactivation and longer rupture propagation, and (4) fault permeability significantly influences pressure diffusion, with low-permeability faults leading to sharper stress changes and earlier fault destabilization. These insights highlight the critical role of geological and mechanical parameters in fault reactivation and provide a predictive framework for mitigating induced seismicity risks.

Coupled geomechanical modeling↗

Geomechanical simulation of the stress tensor rotation caused by injection of cold water in a deep geothermal reservoir

We present a three-dimensional thermohydromechanical numerical study of the evolution and distribution of the stress tensor within the northwest part of The Geysers geothermal reservoir (in California), including a detailed study of the region around one injection well from 2003 to 2012. Initially, after imposing a normal faulting stress regime, we calculated local changes in the stress regime around injection wells. Our results were compared with previously published studies in which the stress state was inferred from inverting the focal plane mechanism of seismic events. Our main finding is that changes in stress tensor orientation are caused by injection-induced progressive cooling of the reservoir, as well as by the seasonal variations in injection rate. Because of the gravity flow and cooling around a liquid zone formed by the injection, the vertical stress reduction is larger and propagates far below the injection well. At the same time, the horizontal stress increases, mostly because of stress redistribution below and above the cooling area. These two phenomena cause the rotation of the stress tensor and the appearance of a strike-slip regime above, inside, and below the cooling area. The cooling and the associated rotation of the stress regime can play a significant role in the observed long-term deepening of the microseismicity below active injection wells.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic response of vertical dry storage casks under three-dimensional earthquake motions

Ensuring the long-term seismic safety of dry storage casks (DSCs) is becoming increasingly critical as these systems evolve from temporary to de facto permanent repositories for spent nuclear fuels. Traditional seismic soil–structure interaction (SSI) assessment methods use one-dimensional deconvolution or simplified boundary conditions to model incident waves. Although computationally appealing, simplifying assumptions may alter the seismic risk by neglecting the full complexity of three-dimensional (3D) wave propagation effects. To address this challenge, this paper introduces a novel high-fidelity computational framework that leverages the Domain Reduction Method (DRM) with perfectly matched layers (PML) to accurately transfer complex, 3D seismic wavefields from regional-scale fault-rupture simulations into local-scale finite element models of DSCs. Using broadband, physics-based ground motions from a generic M w 7.0 strike-slip event, both single-cask and multi-cask configurations were investigated under near- and far-field conditions. Emphasis is placed on capturing complex SSI, spatial variability in the ground motion, and nonlinear phenomena such as cask rocking and sliding. Numerical results demonstrate that near-field conditions, where forward directivity and fling-step effects dominate, lead to significantly higher DSC rocking and sliding. Far-field cases, by contrast, generally exhibit modest responses. Incorporating SSI tends to amplify or alter DSC response spectra and introduce response variability, which underscores the need for site-specific evaluations and robust modeling approaches to ensure the seismic integrity of DSCs in interim spent fuel storage installations.

Das, Tonmoy↗

New Seismic Monitoring Station at Mohawk Ridge, Valles Caldera

Two new broadband digital seismic stations were installed in the Valles Caldera in 2011 and 2012. The first is located on the summit of Cerros del Abrigo (station code CDAB) and the second is located on the flanks of San Antonio Mountain (station code SAMT). Seismic monitoring stations in the caldera serve multiple purposes. These stations augment and expand the current coverage of the Los Alamos Seismic Network (LASN), which is operated to support seismic and volcanic hazards studies for LANL and northern New Mexico (Figure 1). They also provide unique continuous seismic data within the caldera that can be used for scientific studies of the caldera’s substructure and detection of very small seismic signals that may indicate changes in the current and evolving state of remnant magma that is known to exist beneath the caldera. Since the installation of CDAB and SAMT, several very small earthquakes have already been detected near San Antonio Mountain just west of SAMT (Figure 2). These are the first events to be seen in that area. Caldera stations also improve the detection and epicenter determination quality for larger local earthquakes on the Pajarito Fault System east of the Preserve and the Nacimiento Uplift to the west. These larger earthquakes are a concern to LANL Seismic Hazards assessments and seismic monitoring of the Los Alamos region, including the VCNP, is a DOE requirement. Currently the next closest seismic stations to the caldera are on Pipeline Road (PPR) just west of Los Alamos, and Peralta Ridge (PER) south of the caldera. There is no station coverage near the resurgent dome, Redondo Peak, in the center of the caldera. Filling this “hole” is the highest priority for the next new LASN station. We propose to install this station in 2018 on Mohawk Ridge just east of Redondito, in the same area already occupied by other scientific installations, such as the MCON flux tower operated by UNM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Automatic detection of electric power troubles (AI application)

The design goals for the Automatic Detection of Electric Power Troubles (ADEPT) were to enhance Fault Diagnosis Techniques in a very efficient way. ADEPT system was designed in two modes of operation: (1) Real time fault isolation, and (2) a local simulator which simulates the models theoretically.

Wang, Caroline↗

Studies of molecular-beam epitaxy growth of GaAs on porous Si substrates

GaAs has been grown on porous Si directly and on Si buffer layer-porous Si substrates by molecular-beam epitaxy. In the case of GaAs growth on porous Si, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) reveals that the dominant defects in GaAs layers grown on porous Si are microtwins and stacking faults, which originate from the GaAs/porous Si interface. GaAs is found to penetrate into the porous Si layers. By using a thin Si buffer layer (50 nm), GaAs penetration diminishes and the density of microtwins and stacking faults is largely reduced and localized at the GaAs/Si buffer interface. However, there is a high density of threading dislocations remaining. Both Si (100) aligned and four degree tilted substrates have been examined in this study. TEM results show no observable effect of the tilted substrates on the quality of the GaAs epitaxial layer.

Mii, Y. J.↗

Deformation modeling and constitutive modeling for anisotropic superalloys

A study of deformation mechanisms in the single crystal superalloy PWA 1480 was conducted. Monotonic and cyclic tests were conducted from 20 to 1093 C. Both (001) and near-(123) crystals were tested, at strain rates of 0.5 and 50 percent/minute. The deformation behavior could be grouped into two temperature regimes: low temperatures, below 760 C; and high temperatures, above 820 to 950 C depending on the strain rate. At low temperatures, the mechanical behavior was very anisotropic. An orientation dependent CRSS, a tension-compression asymmetry, and anisotropic strain hardening were all observed. The material was deformed by planar octahedral slip. The anisotropic properties were correlated with the ease of cube cross-slip, as well as the number of active slip systems. At high temperatures, the material was isotropic, and deformed by homogeneous gamma by-pass. It was found that the temperature dependence of the formation of superlattice-intrinsic stacking faults was responsible for the local minimum in the CRSS of this alloy at 400 C. It was proposed that the cube cross-slip process must be reversible. This was used to explain the reversible tension-compression asymmetry, and was used to study models of cross-slip. As a result, the cross-slip model proposed by Paidar, Pope and Vitek was found to be consistent with the proposed slip reversibility. The results were related to anisotropic viscoplastic constitutive models. The model proposed by Walter and Jordan was found to be capable of modeling all aspects of the material anisotropy. Temperature and strain rate boundaries for the model were proposed, and guidelines for numerical experiments were proposed.

Milligan, Walter W.↗

Block rotations, fault domains and crustal deformation

Much of the earth's crust is broken by sets of parallel strike-slip faults which are organized in domains. A simple kinematic model suggests that when subject to tectonic strain, the faults, and the blocks bound by them, rotate. The rotation can be estimated from the structurally-determined fault slip and fault spacing, and independently from local deviations of paleomagnetic declinations from global values. A rigorous test of this model was carried out in northern Israel, where good agreement was found between the two rotations.

Nur, A.↗