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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bootstrapping quantum extremal surfaces. Part I. The area operator

Quantum extremal surfaces are central to the connection between quantum information theory and quantum gravity and they have played a prominent role in the recent progress on the information paradox. We initiate a program to systematically link these surfaces to the microscopic data of the dual conformal field theory, namely the scaling dimensions of local operators and their OPE coefficients. We consider CFT states obtained by acting on the vacuum with single-trace operators, which are dual to one-particle states of the bulk theory. Focusing on AdS 3 /CFT 2 , we compute the CFT entanglement entropy to second order in the large c expansion where quantum extremality becomes important and match it to the expectation value of the bulk area operator. We show that to this order, the Virasoro identity block contributes solely to the area operator.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting September Arctic Sea Ice: A Multimodel Seasonal Skill Comparison

This study quantifies the state of the art in the rapidly growing field of seasonal Arctic sea ice prediction. A novel multimodel dataset of retrospective seasonal predictions of September Arctic sea ice is created and analyzed, consisting of community contributions from 17 statistical models and 17 dynamical models. Prediction skill is compared over the period 2001–20 for predictions of pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE), regional SIE, and local sea ice concentration (SIC) initialized on 1 June, 1 July, 1 August, and 1 September. This diverse set of statistical and dynamical models can individually predict linearly detrended pan-Arctic SIE anomalies with skill, and a multimodel median prediction has correlation coefficients of 0.79, 0.86, 0.92, and 0.99 at these respective initialization times. Regional SIE predictions have similar skill to pan-Arctic predictions in the Alaskan and Siberian regions, whereas regional skill is lower in the Canadian, Atlantic, and central Arctic sectors. The skill of dynamical and statistical models is generally comparable for pan-Arctic SIE, whereas dynamical models outperform their statistical counterparts for regional and local predictions. The prediction systems are found to provide the most value added relative to basic reference forecasts in the extreme SIE years of 1996, 2007, and 2012. SIE prediction errors do not show clear trends over time, suggesting that there has been minimal change in inherent sea ice predictability over the satellite era. Overall, this study demonstrates that there are bright prospects for skillful operational predictions of September sea ice at least 3 months in advance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Giant-planet Influence on the Collective Gravity of a Primordial Scattered Disk

Axisymmetric disks of high-eccentricity, low-mass bodies on near-Keplerian orbits are unstable to an out-of-plane buckling. This “inclination instability” exponentially grows the orbital inclinations, raises perihelion distances, and clusters in the argument of perihelion. Here we examine the instability in a massive primordial scattered disk including the orbit-averaged gravitational influence of the giant planets. We show that differential apsidal precession induced by the giant planets will suppress the inclination instability unless the primordial mass is ≳20 Earth masses. We also show that the instability should produce a “perihelion gap” at semimajor axes of hundreds of astronomical units, as the orbits of the remnant population are more likely to have extremely large perihelion distances (O(100 au)) than intermediate values.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

De-Risking Large-Scale PV Systems Through Data Analytics

Large-scale photovoltaic system performance analysis is being conducted within the US Department of Energy's-sponsored PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative. This collaboration with commercial PV system owners collects and evaluates PV field performance data, and provides reports on aggregated results. Drawing on over 2200 sites across the US and over 24,000 separate PV inverters we have collected in excess of 8.3 gigawatts (GW) of performance data, representing 6-7% of the entire US installed PV capacity. A mixture of utility-scale and large commercial systems are represented, averaging 4.1 megawatts (MW) in size and 5 years in age. Initial results show average system degradation rates at -0.75% / year, which is slightly higher than historically reported module-level values of -0.5%/year. We also found that the availability of systems averaged 97.7%, which is lower than the typical 99% uptime assumed by many project economic forecasts. Given these results, we compared monthly performance with expected production values, based on satellite weather data and a simple PVWatts performance model. We found that systems were performing within 10% of monthly expectation over 90% of the time, with a fleet average vs expected monthly value of 0.994. We also evaluated the impact of extreme weather events on system performance, and found a range of short-term and longer-term performance effects ranging from grid outage, system downtime, module damage and accelerated long-term degradation rate.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme Precipitation Over the Southern Slope of the Tibetan Plateau and the Associated Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

The southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (SSTP) is one of the rainiest regions in the world where geological hazards caused by extreme precipitation often occur. This study investigates the characteristics and mechanisms of extreme precipitation over SSTP from June to September during 2001–2020 using Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observation. The extreme precipitation days are defined as the days with top 5% of regional-mean daily precipitation over SSTP in this period, which has an average precipitation of 27.2 mm/d. Averaging over the extreme precipitation days, precipitation peaks at an altitude of about 300 m, coinciding with the climatological maximum precipitation, but with a much larger value of 37.2 mm/d than the climatology of 11.9 mm/d. Composite analysis of circulations on extreme days reveals significant circulation anomalies in both the lower and upper troposphere. Specifically, the lower-tropospheric circulations are characterized by significant westerly anomalies over northern India, and the upper-tropospheric circulations are characterized by northerly anomalies over the central Tibetan Plateau, which are statistically independent. The lower-tropospheric westerly anomalies blowing toward SSTP are blocked by the topography, favoring extreme precipitation over SSTP. The upper-tropospheric northerly anomalies, on the other hand, correspond to anomalous northeasterlies north of SSTP in the middle troposphere and southeasterlies to the south in the lower troposphere, and the convergence of these circulation anomalies favors extreme precipitation over SSTP. Lastly, the lower-tropospheric westerly and upper-tropospheric northerly anomalies, respectively, correspond to less precipitation over the South Asian monsoon region and the Tibetan Plateau.

Extreme precipitation, Tibetan Plateau↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bias-Adjustment Methods for Future Subdaily Precipitation Extremes Consistent Across Durations

Model output from climate projections often requires bias-adjustment to compensate for systematic model errors. A bias-adjustment method for extreme precipitation intensity is proposed that preserves the scaling equation for different accumulation levels from hourly to daily, using intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) modeling. A validation is performed within a pseudo-reality setting, based on hourly precipitation from 28 regional climate model projections of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble over Belgium. The scaling-based adjustment methods improve upon previous methods, an optimal method is identified, and, analytical quantile mapping methods must be avoided due to three identified problems. The ensemble mean of the adjusted extreme precipitation intensity obeys the above-mentioned scale-invariance property, which is consistent with observed extreme intensities. We thus show that IDF modeling provides added value in the context of bias-adjustment, and, that the particular IDF model proposed balances well between accuracy and the preservation of desired properties such as scale invariance and consistency among rainfall durations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S.

Abstract Behind the meter rooftop solar plus storage (PVESS) has the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Whereas the bill reduction and environmental benefits of PVESS are well studied, its monetary resilience benefits are less understood. The increasing trend of power interruptions driven by extreme weather events heightens the need to understand these benefits. This study leverages various publicly available datasets to perform a cost benefit analysis of adding to determine the resilience value of PVESS for a typical single family home in each county in the continental U.S. We find that PVESS is very effective to technically mitigate interruptions across the country. However, the monetary benefits in the base case only cover about 14% of battery costs, with no county exceeding 60%. This is somewhat expected, given that PVESS provide other monetary benefits that are not part of this analysis. Through sensitivities, we find that higher frequency of extreme weather events roughly triples the resilience value of PVESS and that higher values of lost load double the same metric. Our sensitivity analysis shows that the benefit cost ratio of PVESS for customers living in areas with higher-than-average frequency of long duration interruptions and value of lost load is already above one even without considering other value streams. We conclude with recommendations that regulators and utilities could implement to enable customers to calculate and capture the resilience value of PVESS more efficiently.

Baik, Sunhee↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme methane fluxes driven by changes in climate and vegetation in boreal and temperate wetland ecosystems

Climate warming is expected to increase global methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems. Although in situ eddy covariance (EC) measurements at ecosystem scales can potentially detect CH 4 flux changes, most EC systems have only a few years of data collected, so temporal trends in CH 4 remain uncertain. Here, we use established drivers to hindcast changes in CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) since the early 1980s. We trained a machine learning (ML) model on CH 4 flux measurements from 22 [methane-producing sites] in wetland, upland, and lake sites of the FLUXNET-CH 4 database with at least two full years of measurements across temperate and boreal biomes. The gradient boosting decision tree ML model then hindcasted daily FCH 4 over 1981-2018 using meteorological reanalysis data. We found that, mainly driven by rising temperature, half of the sites (n = 11) showed significant increases in annual, seasonal, and extreme FCH 4 , with increases in FCH 4 of ca. 10% or higher found in the fall from 1981–1989 to 2010–2018. The annual trends were driven by increases during summer and fall, particularly at high-CH 4 -emitting fen sites dominated by aerenchymatous plants. We also found that the distribution of days of extremely high FCH 4 (defined according to the 95th percentile of the daily FCH 4 values over a reference period) have become more frequent during the last four decades and currently account for 10–40% of the total seasonal fluxes. The share of extreme FCH 4 days in the total seasonal fluxes was greatest in winter for boreal/taiga sites and in spring for temperate sites, which highlights the increasing importance of the non-growing seasons in annual budgets. Our results shed light on the effects of climate warming on wetlands, which appears to be extending the CH 4 emission seasons and boosting extreme emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The structure of hypergraphs without long Berge cycles

Here, we study the structure of r-uniform hypergraphs containing no Berge cycles of length at least k for k ≤ r, and determine that such hypergraphs have some special substructure. In particular we determine the extremal number of such hypergraphs, giving an affirmative answer to the conjectured value when k = r and giving a simple solution to a recent result of Kostochka-Luo when k < r.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resonant X-ray excitation of the nuclear clock isomer 45 Sc

Resonant oscillators with stable frequencies and large quality factors help us to keep track of time with high precision. Examples range from quartz crystal oscillators in wristwatches to atomic oscillators in atomic clocks, which are, at present, our most precise time measurement devices. The search for more stable and convenient reference oscillators is continuing. Nuclear oscillators are better than atomic oscillators because of their naturally higher quality factors and higher resilience against external perturbations. One of the most promising cases is an ultra-narrow nuclear resonance transition in 45 Sc between the ground state and the 12.4-keV isomeric state with a long lifetime of 0.47 s (ref. 10 ). The scientific potential of 45 Sc was realized long ago, but applications require 45 Sc resonant excitation, which in turn requires accelerator-driven, high-brightness X-ray sources that have become available only recently. Here we report on resonant X-ray excitation of the 45 Sc isomeric state by irradiation of Sc-metal foil with 12.4-keV photon pulses from a state-of-the-art X-ray free-electron laser and subsequent detection of nuclear decay products. Simultaneously, the transition energy was determined as ${\mathrm{12,389.59}}_{+0.12\left({\rm{syst}}\right)}^{\pm 0.15\left({\rm{stat}}\right)}\,{\rm{eV}}$ with an uncertainty that is two orders of magnitude smaller than the previously known values. These advancements enable the application of this isomer in extreme metrology, nuclear clock technology, ultra-high-precision spectroscopy and similar applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of urbanization, antecedent rainfall event, and cyclone tracks on extreme floods at Houston reservoirs during Hurricane Harvey

The objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of urbanization, antecedent rainfall event (ARE), and varying cyclone tracks on the streamflow—and thus the subsequent reservoir status—during the floods caused by Hurricane Harvey in August-September 2017. Through a hydrological modeling approach, we examined how these factors influenced the inflows, peak pool elevations and outflows of the two most important detention reservoirs in the Houston region, the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs. A high-resolution rainfall reanalysis dataset for extreme storm events, along with a suite of synthetic rainfall values from a variety of storm tracks, were adopted to represent both the truth and the maximum possible rainfall during the Hurricane Harvey period. Results showed the following: Urbanization only led to slight increases in peak inflows, not necessarily leading to an increase in peak pool elevations. ARE contributed to the peak inflow and pool elevation slightly. In contrast, if the cyclone had followed the most adverse track consistent with earlier forecasts (all else being equal), the total volumetric flow into the two reservoirs could have been significantly larger (37.00% and 48.70% respectively), thus increasing the peak pool elevations by 1.06 and 1.37 meters respectively. These results suggest that large uncertainties exist for flood management at a watershed scale during hurricanes, because of the uncertainties with regard to the cyclone track. This is true even if storm-relative precipitation rates could be predicted perfectly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electricity Resilience Projects: State of the Art and Gap Analysis

Utilities and regulators must weigh the benefits of electricity resilience projects against their costs, which would be passed on to customers. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an appropriate method for assessing this tradeoff. Here, in this paper we review the literature on CBA of electricity resilience projects and analyze gaps in the available methods and tools. The costs of resilience projects are typically straightforward to estimate but their benefits — particularly the avoided costs of power interruptions — are complex to quantify and monetize. A common perception among practitioners is that current CBA tools are not sufficiently mature to be adopted into real-world practice. We propose an electricity resilience CBA framework consisting of several elements: risks, physical impacts, power interruptions, economic impacts, and resilience projects. While methods for some elements are well-developed, there is a need for novel approaches to value avoided power interruptions, integrate multiple risks and benefit streams, and incorporate uncertainty.

Cost-benefit analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytical Determination of Radioactive Strontium and Cesium by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry

Thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) has been evaluated for the detection of the radioactive isotopes of strontium and cesium. The instrument was investigated for the analysis of isotopic ratios of 89Sr to 90Sr and 135Cs to 137Cs in the presence of atomic isobars (Y and Zr for Sr analysis and Ba for Cs analysis). Signicant discrimination using TIMS was found for both Sr and Cs through evaluation using stable isotopes. Fusion procedures with different flux were evaluated for preparation of sample matrices. Chemical separations were developed and used after fusion to isolate the Sr and Cs from a prepared background matrix (i.e., Montana Soil). A graded approach, increasing in stable background isotopes, was performed to monitor the chemistry and instrument response. A thermal neutron irradiation was performed to produce a sample that contained the radioisotopes of Sr and Cs. Even though the irradiated sample was not a certified standard it does provide accurate expectation values via published, well understood cumulative fission yield data. The results presented in this work correlate extremely well with the published data. Furthermore, a significant decrease in uncertainty (by a factor of 5 { 10) was found for the isotopic ratios measured with TIMS compared to the published values.

TIMS, environmental contamination, radiostrontium,↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supporting Co-Design of Extreme-Scale Systems with In Situ Visual Analysis of Event-Driven Simulations (Final Report)

Extreme-scale systems for compute- and data-centric science are pushing the boundaries of system architectures in order to achieve ambitious goals in terms of computing capability, resilience, and power efficiency. Future systems necessitate emerging designs that incorporate new technologies, system organizations, and computer science techniques, and these changes are not yet well understood. Discrete-event-driven simulation of computing system architectures and subsystems has emerged as a productive and cost-effective means to evaluating potential designs, along with capabilities for executing these simulations of extreme-scale systems. However, techniques for analyzing the behavior of these simulations have not kept pace with our ability to perform the simulations, preventing us from extracting the most value from this promising approach. The objective of this project is to support the codesign of extreme-scale system architectures for compute and data-centric science through research and development of novel methods for analysis and visualization of large-scale event-driven simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ion-driven destabilization of a toroidal electron plasma—A 3D3V PIC simulation

Ion-driven destabilization of a toroidal electron plasma in a small aspect ratio axisymmetric toroidal device is reported for A r + ions of different initial density values using a high fidelity 3D3V PIC solver. Stability of a recently discovered quiescent quasi-steady state (QQS) of a toroidal electron plasma obtained from “seed” solution as a result of entropy extremization at zero inertia is addressed in the presence of a small ion population. An initial value (f0) of the ion fraction (f = n i / n e) and the corresponding secondary electrons are “preloaded” into the system after the electron plasma attains a QQS state. This procedure is regarded as a proxy to the conventional production of ions in the experimental devices via impact ionization. The resulting electron plasma exhibits destabilized “center of charge motion” (m = 1) along with higher order harmonics with dominant power in the second harmonic. Gradual loss of ions (and also electrons) is observed resulting in time varying f values. Beyond a certain value of f0 (≥ 0.005), growth in wall probe current is observed, which saturates at later simulation time due to the loss of particles. In conclusion, trajectories of ion particles indicate ion trapping in the potential well, which is qualitatively similar to the ion resonance instability in pure electron plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of Doping Density on the Performance of Metamorphic GaInAs Solar Cells Grown by Dynamic Hydride Vapor Phase Epitaxy

We study the effect of doping density on the performance of inverted metamorphic ~1 eV GaInAs solar cells grown by dynamic hydride vapor phase epitaxy. We find that the doping efficiency of Se in this material is extremely high, with 5x10 17 cm -3 being the lowest controlled value we could achieve with our present Se source. We compared rear heterojunction devices grown with intentional n-doping of 5x10 17 cm -3 and unintentional n-doping of 5x10 15 cm -3 . The intentionally doped sample exhibited an open circuit voltage ~80 mV higher than the unintentionally doped sample due to reduced dark current, and a bandgap voltage offset, or W OC , of 0.407 V. We believe that future doping optimization will improve carrier collection and W OC in these devices.

GaAs↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lower viral evolutionary pressure under stable versus fluctuating conditions in subzero Arctic brines

Climate change threatens Earth’s ice-based ecosystems which currently offer archives and eco-evolutionary experiments in the extreme. Arctic cryopeg brine (marine-derived, within permafrost) and sea ice brine, similar in subzero temperature and high salinity but different in temporal stability, are inhabited by microbes adapted to these extreme conditions. However, little is known about their viruses (community composition, diversity, interaction with hosts, or evolution) or how they might respond to geologically stable cryopeg versus fluctuating sea ice conditions. We used long- and short-read viromics and metatranscriptomics to study viruses in Arctic cryopeg brine, sea ice brine, and underlying seawater, recovering 11,088 vOTUs (~species-level taxonomic unit), a 4.4-fold increase of known viruses in these brines. More specifically, the long-read-powered viromes doubled the number of longer (≥25 kb) vOTUs generated and recovered more hypervariable regions by >5-fold compared to short-read viromes. Distribution assessment, by comparing to known viruses in public databases, supported that cryopeg brine viruses were of marine origin yet distinct from either sea ice brine or seawater viruses, while 94% of sea ice brine viruses were also present in seawater. A virus-encoded, ecologically important exopolysaccharide biosynthesis gene was identified, and many viruses (~half of metatranscriptome-inferred “active” vOTUs) were predicted as actively infecting the dominant microbial genera Marinobacter and Polaribacter in cryopeg and sea ice brines, respectively. Evolutionarily, microdiversity (intra-species genetic variations) analyses suggested that viruses within the stable cryopeg brine were under significantly lower evolutionary pressures than those in the fluctuating sea ice environment, while many sea ice brine virus-tail genes were under positive selection, indicating virus-host co-evolutionary arms races. Our results confirmed the benefits of long-read-powered viromics in understanding the environmental virosphere through significantly improved genomic recovery, expanding viral discovery and the potential for biological inference. Evidence of viruses actively infecting the dominant microbes in subzero brines and modulating host metabolism underscored the potential impact of viruses on these remote and underexplored extreme ecosystems. Microdiversity results shed light on different strategies viruses use to evolve and adapt when extreme conditions are stable versus fluctuating. Together, these findings verify the value of long-read-powered viromics and provide foundational data on viral evolution and virus-microbe interactions in Earth’s destabilized and rapidly disappearing cryosphere.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗