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NASA NTRS2019

MERRA-2 Data and Analytic Services at NASA GES DISC for Climate Extremes Study

NASA's climate reanalysis datasets from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) contains numerous long-term atmosphere, land, and ocean data products from 1980-present. MERRA-2 datasets, such as precipitation, soil moisture, and temperature, have been used widely to study extreme events. The native archived MERRA-2 data files are day-file (hourly time interval) and month-file, containing up to 125 parameters in one file. Due to the large number of data files and volumes, it is challenging for users, especially the applications research community, to handle the original hourly data files for long time periods to analyze extreme events. In this presentation, we review MERRA-2 data for studies of extreme conditions, and demonstrate analytic services at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). One of the current operational services, 'subsetter', allows users to download only specific data of interest, i.e. data selected by parameter, region, and time period. New services are under development that will provide more 'on-the-fly' statistical calculations when downloading data; improve efficiency when accessing long time-series data. We will provide additional "How-to" resources that include step-by-step instructions on data access and usage. We have tested restructuring of day-files in an optimized data cube, which has significantly improved system performance for accessing long time-series. Overall performance is associated with cube size and structure, data compression method, and how the data are accessed. The optimized data cube structure will enable better online analytic services for statistical analysis and extreme events mining. To demonstrate the service, we use an extreme drought associated with the anomalous 2016 monsoon over southern Asia. This prototype time-series service may be augmented in the cloud infrastructure in the future.

data access↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA Provides the Capability to Deliver Near Real-Time JPSS Data to Users in Order to Monitor Time-Sensitive Applications Such as Wildfires, Floods, Volcanic Eruptions, Tropical Cyclones and Extreme Weather Events

NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (Earth Observing System) (LANCE https://earthdata.nasa.gov/lance) serves near real time (NRT) data to monitor time sensitive applications such as monitoring wildfires, floods, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones and extreme weather events. It currently serves data and imagery from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) S NPP (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership) instruments and is in the process of integrating continuity data products from VIIRS and OMPS onboard the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), via the JPSS data Hub, to continue to meet the needs of agencies, scientists and members of the general public. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) sponsored the EOSDIS development of LANCE in 2009 to provide a central point of access to high quality NRT data products and imagery for applications users. LANCE makes data available to the public within 3 hours of satellite observation and imagery within 4-5 hours of satellite observation. Full resolution browse imagery from LANCE are provided through the Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) which also fuels NASA's Worldview tool so that users can interactively browse near real time data. This data supports time critical applications and allows users to view current natural hazards and events and animate the imagery over time.

Near real time↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised discovery of extreme weather events using universal representations of emergent organization

Spontaneous self-organization is ubiquitous in systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium. While organized structures that emerge dominate transport properties, universal representations that identify and describe these key objects remain elusive. Here, we introduce a theoretically grounded framework for describing emergent organization that, via data-driven algorithms, is constructive in practice. Its building blocks are spacetime lightcones that embody how information propagates across a system through local interactions. We show that predictive equivalence classes of lightcones—local causal states—capture organized behaviors in complex spatiotemporal systems. Employing an unsupervised physics-informed machine learning algorithm and a high-performance computing implementation, we demonstrate automatically discovering organized structures in two real-world domain science problems. We show that local causal states identify vortices and track their power-law decay behavior in two-dimensional fluid turbulence. We then show how to detect and track familiar extreme weather events—hurricanes and atmospheric rivers—and discover other novel structures associated with precipitation extremes in high-resolution climate data at the grid-cell level.

Rupe, Adam [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Historical Extreme Weather Event Impacts

Resilience planning, particularly energy and water resilience planning, has been a key priority for the federal government for many years, leading federal agencies to develop processes for identifying and addressing critical resilience gaps at their facilities and sites. Furthermore, recent federal policy is driving agencies to prioritize climate change impacts as a more central component of their resilience planning efforts. To achieve this, federal sites must understand their vulnerability to climate change, which involves identifying climate hazards projected to impact the site (known as exposure), as well as understanding the sensitivity (the degree to which a site, including its people and the things they value, could be harmed by that exposure), and adaptive capacity of the site (the degree to which the site could lessen bathe potential for harm by taking action to reduce exposure and sensitivity). To assess and understand sensitivity and adaptive capacity, it is important to first obtain a baseline and understand how a site has been impacted by past events, in addition to considering the potential for unprecedented impacts based on climate projections. This information paper highlights current limitations for developing event history assessments and suggests a framework for more consistently capturing key data points. The purpose of this paper is to help inform how organizations could begin structuring a comprehensive process for recording the impacts of extreme weather events in order to facilitate climate vulnerability assessments, and thus, resilience planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning for Probabilistic Modelling of Extreme Storm Events

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods play an important role in reducing errors in weather forecasting. Conventional approaches in UQ for weather forecasting rely on generating an ensemble of forecasts from physics-based simulations to estimate the uncertainty. However, it is computationally expensive to generate many forecasts to predict real-time extreme weather events. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is an uncertainty-aware deep learning approach designed to provide confidence about its predictions using only one forecast. It treats learning as an evidence acquisition process where more evidence is interpreted as increased predictive confidence. We apply EDL to storm forecasting using real-world weather datasets and compare its performance with traditional methods. Our findings indicate that EDL not only reduces computational overhead but also enhances predictive uncertainty. This method opens up novel opportunities in research areas such as climate risk assessment, where quantifying the uncertainty about future climate is crucial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Extremely Low Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures Due to Thunderstorms

Extreme events by their nature fall outside the bounds of routine experience. With imperfect or ambiguous measuring systems, it is appropriate to question whether an unusual measurement represents an extreme event or is the result of instrument errors or other sources of noise. About three weeks after the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite began collecting data in Dec 1997, a thunderstorm was observed over northern Argentina with 85 GHz brightness temperatures below 50 K and 37 GHz brightness temperatures below 70 K (Zipser et al. 2006). These values are well below what had previously been observed from satellite sensors with lower resolution. The 37 GHz brightness temperatures are also well below those measured by TRMM for any other storm in the subsequent 16 years. Without corroborating evidence, it would be natural to suspect a problem with the instrument, or perhaps an irregularity with the platform during the first weeks of the satellite mission. Automated quality control flags or other procedures in retrieval algorithms could treat these measurements as errors, because they fall outside the expected bounds. But the TRMM satellite also carries a radar and a lightning sensor, both confirming the presence of an intense thunderstorm. The radar recorded 40+ dBZ reflectivity up to about 19 km altitude. More than 200 lightning flashes per minute were recorded. That same storm's 19 GHz brightness temperatures below 150 K would normally be interpreted as the result of a low-emissivity water surface (e.g., a lake, or flood waters) if not for the simultaneous measurements of such intense convection. This paper will examine records from TRMM and related satellite sensors including SSMI, AMSR-E, and the new GMI to find the strongest signatures resulting from thunderstorms, and distinguishing those from sources of noise. The lowest brightness temperatures resulting from thunderstorms as seen by TRMM have been in Argentina in November and December. For SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record-holders for each satellite. The lowest AMSR-E 36.5 GHz brightness temperatures associated with deep convection have been in Argentina; the lowest 89.0 GHz brightness temperatures were from Typhoon Bolaven in the Philippine Sea. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. The study is largely motivated by the new GMI sensor on the Global Precipitation Mission core satellite, launched in February 2014, with its high resolution expected to reveal unprecedented low brightness temperatures when extreme events are encountered.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric rivers, in their duration and clustering, and in the occurrence of short-duration (sub-daily) extreme rainfall as well. Major regional landslide events, in which multiple occurrences are recorded in the catalog for the same day, are too rare to allow a statistical characterization of their triggering events, but a case study analysis indicates that a variety of synoptic-scale events can be involved, including not only atmospheric rivers but also broader cold- and warm-front precipitation. That a news-based catalog of landslides is accurate enough to allow the identification of different landslide/ rainfall relationships in the major urban areas along the US West Coast suggests that this technology can potentially be used for other English-language cities and could become an even more powerful tool if expanded to other languages and non-traditional news sources, such as social media.

landslides↗

NASA NTRS1993

Case studies of extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin

The present exploration of climate-anomaly mechanisms, on the basis of surface-climatological and hydrological series, as well as upper-air and satellite observations, gives attention to the March-April rainy season peak in northern Amazonia. While the moderately wet year 1986 exhibited a far-southerly location of the Atlantic near-equatorial trough, and an embedded intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the extremely dry El Nino year 1983 featured a more northerly ITCZ. Major mechanisms of extreme rainfall events are synthesized on the basis of these analyses.

Marengo, Jose A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Power Outage Data Informed Resilience Assessment Framework

Catastrophic impacts to power systems due to disruptive events have increased significantly during the last decade. These events highlight the need to develop approaches to assess the resilience of power systems against extreme events. However, the availability of data that capture power system performance during and after disruptive events is scarce. This paper proposes an assessment framework to evaluate the performance aspects of the grid system during extreme outage events using the Environment for Analysis of Geo-Located Energy Information (EAGLE-I) data. EAGLE-I includes information related to the number of impacted customers, duration, and location of power outages in the United States. Statistical analyses were conducted to extract resilient-based outage data and derive probability distribution functions of their impact and recovery characteristics. A list of extreme events is identified based on few predetermined threshold values. Metrics from other power outage assessments were used to measure the characteristics of each event, including impact rate and duration, recovery rate and duration, and impact level. A probability distribution function is obtained for each metric. The obtained results provide a representation of national grid performance during extreme events, which can be applied as a framework to evaluate various resilience enhancement techniques.

EAGLE-I↗

NASA NTRS2022

Impulsive Solar Energetic Particle Events: Extreme-Ultraviolet Waves and Jets

Impulsive solar energetic particle (ISEP) events show peculiar elemental composition, with enhanced 3 He and heavy-ion abundances, markedly different from our Solar System composition. Furthermore, the events are characterized by a wide variety of energy spectral shapes from power laws to rounded spectra toward the low energies. Solar sources of the events have been firmly associated with coronal jets. Surprisingly, new observations have shown that events are often accompanied by so-called extremeultraviolet (EUV) coronal waves–a large-scale phenomenon compared to jets. This paper outlines the current understanding of the linkage of EUV waves with jets and energetic ions in ISEP events.

solar energetic particles↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Evolving Role of Extreme Weather Events in the U.S. Power System with High Levels of Variable Renewable Energy

As weather-dependent renewable generation grows, it is important for power system planning to understand the broad trends and correlations between weather, renewable resources, and load. The traditional planning, performed by utilities and system operators, includes the study of system resource adequacy during peak load periods in the summer and winter to ensure the generation and transmission system is appropriate to meet load. But in a power grid with a high penetration of variable renewable energy (i.e., wind and solar), periods of high risk to system resource adequacy may no longer correspond only to hours of peak load. In particular, high shares of variable renewable energy, even when well-forecasted to inform system operations, can further complicate the stress extreme weather events already place on the grid. They also may lead to changes to the types of weather conditions that are most problematic to system operations and resource adequacy due to widespread and extended deficits of wind and solar generation. Accordingly, the focus of reliability assessments in long-term planning studies may need to evolve in the coming years to more fully incorporate weather events that lead to these deficits. This report seeks to identify these new weather events and understand the characteristics of the events that lead to system risk of future systems with higher penetrations variable renewable energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes II

Water resources management can benefit from applications of remote sensing and hydrologic models. These tools can be especially valuable during extreme events and in data-sparse regions. Observational platforms include the GPM, SMAP, Terra, Aqua, Landsat, GRACE, and Sentinel satellites, and other satellite and airborne platforms. They can support the operational water resources management community in responding to climate change, increases in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events. This session will highlight advances in the use of satellite, airborne and ground-based sensor networks to: measure the quantity/quality of hydrologic resources in the U.S. and internationally; provide information to water managers to improve water resources management; and support risk-based decision making. Topics of interest include (1) extreme events such as floods and droughts; (2) water supply and snow water resource monitoring and forecasting; (3) evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater, and agricultural water management; (4) water quality and (5) global water sustainability.

Bolten, John D.↗

NASA NTRS2018

H53E: Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management, Including Droughts, Floods, and Associated Water Cycle Extremes I

Remote Sensing↗

DOE OSTI2025

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Resilience framework and metrics for energy master planning of communities

Changes in the nature, intensity, and frequency of climate-related extreme events have imposed a higher risk of failure on energy systems, especially those at the community level. Furthermore, the evolving energy demand patterns and transition towards renewable and localised energy supply can affect energy system resilience. How can an energy system be planned and reconfigured to address these challenges without compromising the system's resilience against chronic stresses and extreme events? Unlike energy system reliability, resilience is neither a common nor an explicit consideration in energy master planning at the community level. In addition, there is no universally agreed-upon method or metrics for measuring or estimating resilience and defining mitigation strategies. This paper introduces a multi-layered energy resilience framework and set of metrics for energy master planning of communities, including the new generation of district energy systems. The potential system disturbances and their short and long-term impacts on various components of the energy system are discussed for commonly expected and extreme events. Three layers of energy resilience are discussed: engineering-designed resilience, operational resilience, and community-societal resilience. A starting set of energy resilience metrics to support engineering design and energy master planning for communities is identified. Implications for future research and practice are noted.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prandtl number effects on extreme mixing events in forced stratified turbulence

Relatively strongly stratified turbulent flows tend to self-organise into a ‘layered anisotropic stratified turbulence’ (LAST) regime, characterised by relatively deep and well-mixed density ‘layers’ separated by relatively thin ‘interfaces’ of enhanced density gradient. Understanding the associated mixing dynamics is a central problem in geophysical fluid dynamics. It is challenging to study LAST mixing, as it is associated with Reynolds numbers $Re := UL/\nu \gg 1$ and Froude numbers $Fr :=(2{\rm \pi} U)/(L N) \ll 1$ ( $U$ and $L$ being characteristic velocity and length scales, $\nu$ the kinematic viscosity and $N$ the buoyancy frequency). Since a sufficiently large dynamic range (largely) unaffected by stratification and viscosity is required, it is also necessary for the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_{b} := \epsilon /(\nu N^{2}) \gg 1$ , where $\epsilon$ is the (appropriately volume-averaged) turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate. This requirement is exacerbated for oceanically relevant flows, as the Prandtl number $Pr := \nu /\kappa = {O}(10)$ in thermally stratified water (where $\kappa$ is the thermal diffusivity), thus leading (potentially) to even finer density field structures. We report here on four forced fully resolved direct numerical simulations of stratified turbulence at various Froude ( $Fr=0.5, 2$ ) and Prandtl ( $Pr=1, 7$ ) numbers forced so that $Re_{b}=50$ , with resolutions up to $30\,240 \times 30\,240 \times 3780$ . We find that, as $Pr$ increases, emergent ‘interfaces’ become finer and their contribution to bulk mixing characteristics decreases at the expense of the small-scale density structures populating the well-mixed ‘layers’. However, extreme mixing events (as quantified by significantly elevated local destruction rates of buoyancy variance $\chi _0$ ) are always preferentially found in the (statically stable) interfaces, irrespective of the value of $Pr$ .

Mechanics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Formation and Propagation of Atmospheric River and Its Impact on Extreme Precipitation Events in the North Pacific and the Western North America

Seasonal and interannual evolution patterns of atmospheric rivers (AR) in the North Pacific are examined as a function of the formation region where an AR is first detected using 43-year MERRA-2 reanalysis data. Integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is used to detect AR with latitude dependent thresholds of IVT to better detect AR-like features in the high latitudes. Based on 3-hourly AR statistics, three main AR genesis regions in the North Pacific (i.e., South China Sea (SCS), Western North Pacific (WNP) and Central Pacific Ocean and Hawaiian Islands (CPO) are identified. WNP is the main source of AR with 1475 ARs detected for 43 cold seasons (NDJFM). Over 70% of all AR formed in the WNP has longer than 2-day. On the other hand, AR from CPO tends to have shorter lifetime than those from WNP and SCS. While propagation patterns of AR from SCS and WNP are similar, AR from WNP tends to reach mature phase quicker and shows higher change of impacting west coast of North America. Longevity and strength of AR are also examined based on three large-scale circulation modes (e.g. ENSO, WP, and EAJS) over the East Asia identified from eigen analysis of upper-level zonal winds. During El Nino, the number of AR formed in the western Pacific increased by 20%. First two days, the average size and intensity shows little difference compared with ARs in La Nina years. AR appears to grow in size in El Nino vs. La Nina years. Positive phase of WP correlated with less, but larger and stronger AR formation over WNP and SCS regions. EAJS has little impact in the numbers of AR and its size, but ARs in a stronger EAJS tends to grow larger. Atmospheric circulation associated with the initial formation and propagation of AR from the different regions in the North Pacific as well as its impact on extreme precipitation events in the North Pacific and the west coast of North America will be also discussed.

Integrated water vapor transport↗