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DOE OSTI2023

Global Nuclear Explosion Discrimination Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Using P-wave seismograms, we trained a seismic source classifier using a Convolutional Neural Network. We trained for three classes: earthquake P-wave, underground nuclear explosion (UNE) P-wave, and noise. With the current absence of nuclear testing by countries that have signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, high quality seismic data from UNEs is limited. Even with limited training data, our model can accurately characterize most events recorded at regional and teleseismic distances, finding over 95% signals in the validation set. We applied the model on holdout datasets of the North Korean test explosions to evaluate the performance on unique region and station-source pairs, with promising results. Additionally, we tested on the Source Physics Experiment events to investigate the potential for chemical explosions to act as a surrogate for nuclear explosions. We anticipate that machine-learning models like our classifier system can have broad application for other seismic signals including volcanic and non-volcanic tremor, anomalous earthquakes, ice-quakes or landslide-quakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Volcanism in Elysium Planitia, Mars

Geomorphic mapping revealed that the three volcanic constructs within Elysium Planitia (Hecates Tholus, elysium Mons and Albor Tholus) are very different in their overall morphology and represent three distinct types of martian volcano. Hecates Tholus was found to possess the most likely possible example of a young, explosively generated, air fall deposit, while the volume of magma erupted from Elysium Mons appears to have been orders of magnitude larger than that erupted from Albor Tholus. A primary aim of the regional geological analysis of Elysium Planitia is to further understand the volcanic and tectonic evolution of the area by the identification and interpretation of individual lava flows and their source vents. Lava flow size, spatial distribution, flow direction and the stratigraphic relationships of these lava flows to adjacent structural features were all measured. The topographic form of Elysium Mons has totally controlled the flow direction of lava flows within Elysium Planitia. Lava flows from Elysium Mons can be traced for distances of 150 to 250 km in a radial direction from the volcano. Parasitic vents located beyond the recognizable volcanic construct also conform to this radial pattern. A second unusual characteristic of the Elysium Planitia region is the high frequency of occurrence of sinuous channels that are morphologically similar to lunar sinuous rilles.

Mouginis-Mark, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Forecasting Rates of Volcanic Activity on Terrestrial Exoplanets and Implications for Cryovolcanic Activity on Extrasolar Ocean Worlds

Like the planets and moons in our solar system, the surfaces of terrestrial exoplanets may be shaped by volcanic activity. The magnitudes and rates of volcanic activity on terrestrial exoplanets will be intimately linked to their sizes and internal heating rates and can either facilitate or preclude the existence of habitable environments. In order to place bounds on the potential for such activity, we estimate total internal heating rates for 53 exoplanets with masses and radii up to∼8M⊕and 2R⊕, respectively, assuming that internal heating is drawn from both radiogenic and tidal sources. We then compare these internal heating rates to those of the planets and moons in our solar system in an attempt to constrain the expected rates of volcanic activity on these extrasolar worlds. We find that all 53 of the exoplanets surveyed are likely to have volcanic activity at their surfaces, and that at least 26% of these planets may be extrasolar ocean worlds. The majority of these ocean worlds may be similar in structure to the icy moons of the giant planets, having internal oceans beneath layers of surface ice. If so, these planets may exhibit cryovolcanism (i.e., icy volcanism)at their surfaces. Recent studies have shown that extrasolar volcanism could be detected by high-resolution spectrographs on existing ground-based telescopes. In the case of planets with densities and/or effective temperatures that are consistent with H2O-rich compositions, spectral identification of excess water vapor and other molecules that are explosively vented into space during cryovolcanic eruptions could serve as a way to infer the presence of subsurface oceans, and therefore indirectly assess their habitability. Considering the implications for habitability, our results suggest that continued characterization of terrestrial exoplanets in terms of their potential for volcanic activity should be a priority in the coming years.

Lynnae C Quick↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tracking the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Eruption Stratospheric Aerosol and Trace Gas Plumes Using Machine Learning

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai (HTHH) submarine volcano had an explosive eruption phase on January 15, 2022, that thrusted ash, gases, and water vapor through the troposphere and into the stratosphere. The stratospheric volcanic plume included aerosol precursor gases such as SO2 and H2S as well as anomalously high water vapor concentrations due to the submarine oceanic origin. With these atmospheric constituents, the sulfuric gases and water vapor formed sulfate (SO4) particles via gas-to-particle reactions and these aerosols likely increased in size due to hygroscopic growth within anomalously humid regions. Strong easterlies and gravity waves propagated the volcanic impacts throughout the stratosphere. Orbital and suborbital passive sensor retrievals detected changes in the aerosol and trace gas characteristics within the atmospheric column for cloud-free regions over the southern hemisphere. While the CALIPSO lidar can detect aerosol layers in the stratosphere, passive sensors such as MODIS retrieved the total column aerosol abundance and characteristics. Previous studies used manual tracking methods to determine volcanic plume positions and compared them to ground observations. In this study, we examine the machine learning (ML) approaches including segmentation, object detection, and object tracking to identify and track aerosol and trace gas plumes using orbital and suborbital sensor data. This ML implementation strives to provide a more systematic approach to separate total column effects from those of the stratosphere. Similar ML tracking may be useful for stratospheric impact events observed historically by CALIPSO and in the future with EarthCare and the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) lidar-capable missions.

Rhys Leahy↗

NASA NTRS1989

Seasonal variations of volcanic eruption frequencies

Do volcanic eruptions have a tendency to occur more frequently in the months of May and June? Some past evidence suggests that they do. The present study, based on the new eruption catalog of Simkin et al.(1981), investigates the monthly statistics of the largest eruptions, grouped according to explosive magnitude, geographical latitude, and year. At the 2-delta level, no month-to-month variations in eruption frequency are found to be statistically significant. Examination of previously published month-to-month variations suggests that they, too, are not statistically significant. It is concluded that volcanism, at least averaged over large portions of the globe, is probably not periodic on a seasonal or annual time scale.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Project “Analogs for VENus’s GEologically Recent Surfaces” (AVENGERS): Unveiling Active Volcanism on Venus

The recently selected missions to Venus opened a new era for the exploration of the Earth’s hellish twin sister. One of the key questions that the selected missions to Venus will address is whether the planet is volcanically active. The identification of ongoing volcanic activity on Venus can indeed unveil important clues on the geologic evolution of the planet, also helping us to better understand how volcanic and atmospheric processes work on Earth, especially those related to the climate change produced by greenhouse gases. To fully contextualize the higher resolution datasets to be provided by the future missions to Venus, we need to be able to exploit the wealth of data to be produced in the best possible way. Different types of instruments will indeed perform unprecedent orbiting and in-situ investigations of the surface and subsurface of Venus. To this regard, the Project “Analogs for VENus’s GEologically Recent Surfaces” (AVENGERS) aims to build a comprehensive database of Terrestrial active volcanoes which may act as suitable analogs for identifying ongoing volcanic activity on Venus. To do this, the project AVENGERS will combine the implementation of terrestrial orbiter radar data analysis techniques (i.e., radar interferometry) with infrared and laboratory analyses of lava flow samples from Terrestrial active volcanoes. As a first suitable analog of the Project AVENGERS, we selected Mount Etna in Sicily for a direct comparison with potentially active volcanic structures of Venus, and with Idunn Mons, one of the most promising possibly active volcanoes of Venus. Given its composite nature, Mount Etna offers the opportunity to identify and study multiple types of eruptive products (both effusive and explosive) from the analysis of high-resolution radar images. The frequent eruptions characterizing this volcano will also allow to test techniques of radar interferometry. Moreover, its ease of access facilitates geologic field trips and in-situ investigations with related sample retrieving. Ongoing infrared laboratory analysis on several altered and unaltered samples retrieved by Mount Etna will help to distinguish spectral signatures of fresh vs weathered volcanic deposits.

P. D’Incecco↗

NASA NTRS1992

Pyroclastic deposits on the western limb of the moon

A geologic characterization is presented of 17 newly identified localized pyroclastic deposits on the western limb of the moon. The results show that lunar pyroclastic deposits are more pervasive on the western limb of the moon than once thought. The western limb dark-mantle deposits in the proximal zone are probably related to faults and fractures associated with the Cordillera ring of Orientale Basin. All the localized pyroclastic deposits on the western limb for which near-infrared reflectance spectra have been obtained exhibit parameter that allowed them to be assigned to the three spectral groups described elsewhere. Western limb pyroclastic deposits appear to represent various stages in a formational sequence in which an initial explosive phase is followed by varying amounts of mare flooding. In view of their sequential formation, both the pyroclastic and mare materials associated with individual volcanic complexes may be the products of the same parent magmas and have very similar compositions.

Coombs, Cassandra R.↗

NASA NTRS2022

The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption -Part 2: Particle-phase dispersion and concurrent wildfire smoke emissions

Between 27 June and 14 July 2019 aerosol layers were observed by the United Kingdom (UK) Raman lidar network in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The arrival of these aerosol layers in late June caused some concern within the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) as according to dispersion simulations the volcanic plume from the 21 June 2019 eruption of Raikoke was not expected over the UK until early July. Using dispersion simulations from the Met Office Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), and supporting evidence from satellite and in situ aircraft observations, we show that the early arrival of the stratospheric layers was not due to aerosols from the explosive eruption of the Raikoke volcano but due to biomass burning smoke aerosols associated with intense forest fires in Alberta, Canada, that occurred 4 d prior to the Raikoke eruption. We use the observations and model simulations to describe the dispersion of both the volcanic and forest fire aerosol clouds and estimate that the initial Raikoke ash aerosol cloud contained around 15 Tg of volcanic ash and that the forest fires produced around 0.2 Tg of biomass burning aerosol. The operational monitoring of volcanic aerosol clouds is a vital capability in terms of aviation safety and the synergy of NAME dispersion simulations, and lidar data with depolarising capabilities allowed scientists at the Met Office to interpret the various aerosol layers over the UK and attribute the material to their sources. The use of NAME allowed the identification of the observed stratospheric layers that reached the UK on 27 June as biomass burning aerosol, characterised by a particle linear depolarisation ratio of 9 %, whereas with the lidar alone the latter could have been identified as the early arrival of a volcanic ash–sulfate mixed aerosol cloud. In the case under study, given the low concentration estimates, the exact identification of the aerosol layers would have made little substantive difference to the decision-making process within the London VAAC. However, our work shows how the use of dispersion modelling together with multiple observation sources enabled us to create a more complete description of atmospheric aerosol loading.

Martin J Osborne↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unusual Seismic Signals in the Sevier Desert, Utah Possibly Related to the Black Rock Volcanic Field

Abstract On September 12, 2018 and April 14, 2019 shallow (<2.5 km from the surface, <1 km relative to sea level) earthquakes ( M w 4.0 and 4.1, respectively) struck a relatively aseismic area in south‐central Utah, within the Black Rock Desert volcanic field. Seismic waveforms are dominated by long‐period energy, no clear direct S‐wave arrivals, and signal durations of ∼100 s. Using co‐seismic interferograms, we detect clear and distinguishable surface deformation confirming the shallowness of the two mainshocks, while full moment tensor solutions rule out an isotropic source, such as an explosion or collapse. For the April 2019 sequence, we build an earthquake catalog using a dense temporary geophone array. The enhanced earthquake catalog shows a rapidly decaying aftershock sequence, with 85% of aftershocks occurring during the first three hours. Combining these observations, we argue that these earthquake sequences are related to the Black Rock Desert volcanic field.

Mesimeri, Maria↗

NASA NTRS1982

Distribution of Mount St. Helens dust inferred from satellites and meteorological data

Visible and infrared pictures from two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Systems satellites, in circular orbits at about 19,000 nautical miles, are available continuously at approximately 30 minute intervals. Still pictures and film loops from this system vividly depict the events associated with the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. The initial explosion, shock wave, and visible horizontal dust distribution during the following week are readily apparent. Meteorological wind and height fields permit the inference of the vertical distribution of volcanic dust as well as explain the atmospheric behavior which caused the visible and nonvisible dust distribution.

Laver, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Review of Low Frequency Electromagnetic Wave Phenomena Related to Tropospheric-Ionospheric Coupling Mechanisms

Investigation of coupling mechanisms between the troposphere and the ionosphere requires a multidisciplinary approach involving several branches of atmospheric sciences, from meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and fulminology to aeronomy, plasma physics, and space weather. In this work, we review low frequency electromagnetic wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere cavity from a troposphere-ionosphere coupling perspective. We discuss electromagnetic wave generation, propagation, and resonance phenomena, considering atmospheric, ionospheric and magnetospheric sources, from lightning and transient luminous events at low altitude to Alfven waves and particle precipitation related to solar and magnetospheric processes. We review in situ ionospheric processes as well as surface and space weather phenomena that drive troposphere-ionosphere dynamics. Effects of aerosols, water vapor distribution, thermodynamic parameters, and cloud charge separation and electrification processes on atmospheric electricity and electromagnetic waves are reviewed. We also briefly revisit ionospheric irregularities such as spread-F and explosive spread-F, sporadic-E, traveling ionospheric disturbances, Trimpi effect, and hiss and plasma turbulence. Regarding the role of the lower boundary of the cavity, we review transient surface phenomena, including seismic activity, earthquakes, volcanic processes and dust electrification. The role of surface and atmospheric gravity waves in ionospheric dynamics is also briefly addressed. We summarize analytical and numerical tools and techniques to model low frequency electromagnetic wave propagation and solving inverse problems and summarize in a final section a few challenging subjects that are important for a better understanding of tropospheric-ionospheric coupling mechanisms.

Simoes, Fernando↗

DOE OSTI2021

Shocked Transport: Experiments to Study Dynamic Particle Behavior under Varying Volume Fraction Conditions

Shocks interacting with densely-packed porous media is common in volcanic eruptions or in engineering applications such as ordinance. Large-scale, exploratory experiments have been performed by Frost and collaborators examining the behavior of a bed of particles subjected to a detonation wave. The detonation replaces the central explosive with a high-density, high-temperature gas that propagates outward. A shock wave travels through the particle bed, followed by a contact discontinuity between the shocked air and the explosive products. In the early times, the detonation wave causes many of the particles to collide and compact with each other. As the particles disperse, the experiments demonstrate a series of large-scale jets or fingers that form in the advancing particle front.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermo-hydrologic processes in maar eruptions: The role of vapor transport and condensation

Phreatomagmatic eruptions occur when magma interacts directly with water or slurries, commonly from groundwater in the shallow crust, resulting in rapid conversion of thermal energy to mechanical energy in a set of processes known as molten fuel-coolant interaction (MFCI). The efficiency of MFCI is controlled by properties of the magma and coolant, contact surface geometry, and system conditions, such as pressure and temperature; phreatomagmatic behavior can range from passive thermal granulation to violent thermohydraulic explosions (Zimanowski et al., 2015). Maar-diatreme eruptions, characterized by repetitive phreatomagmatic explosions, can form in a wide range of near-surface environments, from soft sediment substrate (e.g., Tecuitlapa, Mexico, Ort and Carrasco-Núñez, 2009; Hopi Buttes, AZ, Lefebvre et al., 2013) to hard, fractured country rock (e.g., West Eifel volcanic field, Germany and Massif Central, France, Lorenz, 2003). Country-rock structure, including faults and joints, rock type, and shallow crustal hydrologic properties, can influence an eruption’s behavior by controlling how much and at what rate water can be supplied to the magma (hydraulic flow rate), and determining the sediment: water ratio in the case of soft-sediment substrate eruptions. In a “soft” substrate environment, volcanic tremor can lead to liquefaction of saturated sediment, producing a slurry that may then interact with magma in unique ways (White, 1996; Auer, et al., 2006).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

On the evolution and activity of cometary nuclei

The thermal evolution of a spherical cometary nucleus, composed initially of very cold amorphous ice and moving in comet Halley's orbit, is simulated numerically for 280 revolutions. It is found that the phase transition from amorphous to crystalline ice constitutes a major internal heat source. The transitions occur in five distinct rounds, with the phase transition front advancing into the nucleus to progressively greater depths. At the time of crystallization, the temperature of the transformed ice rises to 180 K. It is argued that gas tends to accumulate in pockets that eventually explode, forming 'volcanic calderas' and exposing gas-laden amorphous ice which may be a major source of gas and dust jets into the coma. The activity of new comets and, possibly, cometary outbursts and splits may also be explained in terms of explosive gas release following the transition from amorphous to crystalline ice.

Prialnik, Dina↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Precision Characterization of Seismicity from the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

The earthquake swarm accompanying the January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption includes a large number of posteruptive moderate-magnitude seismic events and presents a unique opportunity to use remote monitoring methods to characterize and compare seismic activity with other historical caldera-forming eruptions. We compute improved epicentroid locations, magnitudes, and regional moment tensors of seismic events from this earthquake swarm using regional to teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling. Precise relative locations of 91 seismic events derived from 59,047 intermediate-period Rayleigh- and Love-wave cross-correlation measurements collapse into a small area surrounding the volcano and exhibit a southeastern time-dependent migration. Regional moment tensors and observed waveforms indicate that these events have a similar mechanism and exhibit a strong positive compensated linear vector dipole component. Precise relative magnitudes agree with regional moment tensor moment magnitude ($M_w$) estimates while also showing that event sizes and frequency increase during the days after the eruption followed by a period of several weeks of less frequent seismicity of a similar size. The combined information from visual observation and early geologic models indicate that the observed seismicity may be the result of a complex series of events that occurred after the explosive eruption on 15 January, possibly involving rapid resupply of the magma chamber shortly after the eruption and additional faulting and instability in the following weeks. In addition, we identify and characterize an $M_w$ 4.5 event five days before the paroxysmal explosion on 15 January, indicating that additional seismic events preceding the main eruption could have been identified with improved local monitoring. As a result, our analysis of the HTHH eruption sequence demonstrates the value of potentially utilizing teleseismic surface-wave cross correlation and waveform modeling methods to assist in the detailed analysis of remote volcanic eruption sequences.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Forecasting Rates of Volcanic Activity on Terrestrial Exoplanets

Similar to the planets and moons in our solar system, terrestrial exoplanets may be shaped by volcanism and tectonics. The magnitudes and rates of geological activity on terrestrial exoplanets will be intimately linked to their sizes and internal heating rates, and can either facilitate, or preclude, the existence of habitable environments. In order to place bounds on the potential for such activity, we estimate total internal heating rates for 52 exoplanets, with masses and radii up to ~ 8M(sub E) and 2R(sub E), respectively, assuming that internal heating is drawn from both radiogenic and tidal sources. We then compare these internal heating rates to those of the bodies in our solar system in an attempt to constrain the rates of volcanic activity on extrasolar worlds. We find that all of the exoplanets surveyed are likely to exhibit volcanic activity at their surfaces. We also find that at least 25% of the of the planets in our study may be extrasolar ocean worlds, the majority of which may contain internal oceans beneath layers of surface ice. These planets may be similar in structure to the icy moons of the giant planets and may have persistent cryovolcanic activity at their surfaces. Volcanic activity on exoplanets could be detected by next-generation space telescopes in transit spectra. In the case of planets with densities and/or effective temperatures that are consistent with H2O-rich compositions, spectral identification of excess water vapor and other molecules that are explosively vented into space during cryovolcanic eruptions could serve as a way to infer the presence of subsurface oceans, and therefore indirectly assess their habitability. Considering the implications for habitability, our results suggest that characterizing Earth-like exoplanets in terms of the potential for geological activity at their surfaces should be a priority in the coming years.

Lynnae C Quick↗

NASA NTRS1981

Topography of Martian central volcanoes

Results are presented of the topographic mapping of six large central volcanoes on Mars. Stereo images of the volcanoes Olympus Mons, Elysium Mons, Albor Tholus, Ceraunius Tholus, Uranius Tholus and Uranius Patera were acquired by Viking Orbiter 1, and pairs of images were compiled into topographic maps through the use of digital image measurement techniques. Olympus Mons is found to have the general form of a terrestrial basaltic shield constructed almost entirely from lava flows, however with an altitude of 20-23 km and flank slopes averaging about 4 deg; a high nominal density indicates that anomalously dense lithosphere underlies the shield. Uranius Patera is observed to be a similar feature of present relief about 2 km, with its lower flanks buried by later lava flood deposits. Elysium Mons has about 13 km of local relief with average slopes of 4.4 deg, although its upper flank slopes are significantly steeper than those of Olympus Mons, suggesting a shield volcano modified by a terminal phase of mixed volcanic activity. Albor Tholus is found to be a partially buried 3-km shield-like construct, while Ceranius and Uranius Tholus are steeper cone-like features with reliefs of about 6 and 2 km, respectively, which may be lava shield constructs modified by a terminal stage of explosive activity.

Blasius, K. B.↗