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DOE OSTI2024

Validating automated resonance evaluation with synthetic data

The integrity and precision of nuclear data are crucial for a broad spectrum of applications, from national security and nuclear reactor design to medical diagnostics, where the associated uncertainties can significantly impact outcomes. A substantial portion of uncertainty in nuclear data originates from the subjective biases in the evaluation process, a crucial phase in the nuclear data production pipeline. Recent advancements indicate that automation of certain routines can mitigate these biases, thereby standardizing the evaluation process and enhancing reproducibility. This research aims to provide a methodology, framework, and metrics for the validation of automated nuclear data evaluation software leveraging high-quality synthetic data that closely mimic real experimental observables. An introduced error metric provides a scale and intuitive measure of the evaluation quality by quantifying the estimate’s accuracy and performance across the specified energy range. Synthetic data provides access to experimental observables and underlying resonance parameters, enabling comparison of different evaluations. The methodology is demonstrated using Ta-181 isotope data in the resolved resonance region. The Automated Resonance Identification Subroutine (ARIS), which operates without prior resonance information, was used to test and showcase the framework’s capabilities utilizing the proposed error metrics. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and framework for optimizing software parameters and testing hypotheses through “what-if” controlled experiments, such as modifying assumptions about experimental conditions or average resonance parameters.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating 239 Pu(n,f) cross sections via machine learning using experimental data, covariances, and measurement features

In this paper, the neutron-induced 239 Pu fission cross section, 239 Pu(n,f), is evaluated from 1–20 MeV using experimental data and associated covariances while also considering information on the measurement, termed features here. For instance, methods to determine the background, sample backing material, or impurities in the sample, are explicitly taken into account in the evaluation process. To this end, outliers in the experimental data are identified with a modified version of the Hybrid Robust Support Vector Machine. In a second step, two machine learning methods (logistic regression with elastic net regularization and random forest regression with SHAP feature importance metric) are used to highlight measurement features that are common among many of the outlying data points. Based on this analysis, penalty uncertainties are added to the experimental covariances of outlying data points that have outlier measurement features and are put through the generalized-least-squares evaluation. The resulting evaluated mean values and covariances differ distinctly from those data evaluated without the penalty uncertainties. These results highlight that certain measurement features should be more closely examined.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multicriterion benefit evaluation methodology for safety enhancements in nuclear power plants and application for FLEX strategies

Here we propose a multicriterion benefit evaluation (MCBE) methodology for evaluating costs and benefits of implementing safety enhancements in nuclear power plants. The MCBE methodology establishes a comprehensive evaluation scope using multiple evaluation criteria (including public risk, occupational risk, plant revenue, and plant cost) and multiple contexts (including plant normal operations, incidents, and accidents). The MCBE methodology formulates a benefit or cost element as the product of a monetary consequence and its occurrence-likelihood change. The MCBE methodology also incorporates a decision maker’ preferences toward occurrence likelihood and monetary consequence into cost and benefit estimations through a modified usage of cumulative prospect theory. This paper applies the MCBE methodology to the implementation of diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX) in a generic nuclear power plant as an illustrative example. The FLEX benefits are evaluated through three types of influence paths: plant safety enhancement, risk-informed activities, and potential additional credit of FLEX in supporting plant operation and maintenance-efficiency improvement. The benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of FLEX implementation is calculated. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to examine the impacts of modeling assumptions and input parameter values on the BCR.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating wind speed and power forecasts for wind energy applications using an open-source and systematic validation framework

Building on the verification and validation work developed under the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project, this work exhibits the value of a consistent procedure to evaluate wind power forecasts. We established an open-source Python code base tailored for wind speed and wind power forecast validation, WE-Validate. The code base can evaluate model forecasts with observations in a coherent manner. To demonstrate the systematic validation framework of WE-Validate, we designed and hosted a forecast evaluation benchmark exercise. We invited forecast providers in industry and academia to participate and submit forecasts for two case studies. We then evaluated the submissions with WE-Validate. Our findings suggest that ensemble means have reasonable skills in time series forecasting, whereas they are often inferior to single ensemble members in wind ramp forecasting. Adopting a voting scheme in ramp forecasting that allows ensemble members to detect ramps independently leads to satisfactory skill scores. Throughout this document, we also emphasize the importance of using statistically robust and resistant metrics as well as equitable skill scores in forecast evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Re-evaluation of the TSL for Yttrium Hydride

Yttrium hydride (YH x ) is of interest as a high-temperature moderator material in advanced nuclear reactor systems because of its superior ability to retain hydrogen at elevated temperatures. Thermal neutron scattering laws (TSL) for hydrogen bound in yttrium hydride (H-YH 2 ) and yttrium bound in yttrium hydride (Y-YH 2 ) were previously evaluated by Naval Nuclear Laboratory using the ab initio approach and released in ENDF/B-VIII.0. In that work, density functional theory, incorporating the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) for the exchange-correlation energy, was used to simulate the face-centered cubic structure of YH 2 and calculate the interatomic Hellmann-Feynman forces for a 2×2×2 supercell containing 96 atoms. Lattice dynamics calculations using PHONON were used to determine the phonon density of states. The calculated phonon density of states for H and Y in YH 2 were then used to prepare H-YH 2 and Y-YH 2 TSL evaluations, in the incoherent approximation, using the LEAPR module of NJOY. In addition, elastic scattering was assumed to be incoherent for both H and Y. While the incoherent elastic scattering approximation is appropriate for H-YH 2 , it introduces an undesirable approximation for Y-YH 2 . In this work, we re-evaluate the TSL for Y-YH 2 using FLASSH (Full Law Analysis Scattering System Hub). Y-YH 2 is evaluated using the FLASSH generalized coherent elastic scattering capability in order to capture the Bragg peaks associated with the YH 2 crystal structure which were neglected in the prior NJOY-based evaluation due to limitations in LEAPR. An experimental approach to validate the Y-YH 2 TSL using neutron transmission measurements is discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Guidelines and Specifications for Enhanced Durability Evaluation of Insulating Glass and Vacuum Insulating Glass Units

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has conducted research into durability of advanced fenestration technologies for almost thirty years. NREL has recently begun to research potential methods to enhance durability evaluation of present market insulating glass units (IGU). This document outlines a proposed process flow for adoption of these methods by interested parties. The proposed evaluation process flow described below is still a topic of active research at NREL as well as with industry partners. NREL will periodically update this document based on research results, both internal and external to NREL that may inform development of improved durability evaluation. This document is also meant to serve as a guideline for interested parties who may wish to engage in enhanced durability evaluation of IGU's both internally or with external testing laboratories. NREL will work to support adoption of the suggestions in this guideline by interested partners in the hope that these practices are more broadly adopted by the industry. Further research into this area will continue to inform both adaptations of this guideline as well as development of improved durability evaluation standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Building 23-620, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory J-3 Office, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) plans to demolish Building 23-620, the Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL) J-3 Office Building (Nevada State Historic Preservation Office [SHPO] Resource No. B15283) at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The NNSA/NFO is implementing a long-term project to modernize the town of Mercury for future mission needs. The project is considered an undertaking subject to review under Title 54 of United States Code (USC) § 306108, commonly known as Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act, Title 54 USC § 300101, et seq., and its implementing regulations, Title 36 of the Code of Federal Regulations (36 CFR) Part 800. In 2018, Desert Research Institute (DRI) completed an architectural survey of the town of Mercury. This effort resulted in the identification, recordation, and evaluation of the Mercury Historic District (MHD, SHPO Resource No. D230), including the identification of its contributing elements (Reno et al. 2018). The MHD was recommended eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP, National Register) under the Secretary of the Interior’s (SOI) Significance Criteria A and C, as defined in 36 CFR Part 60.4, as a significant concentration of buildings and structures with a direct and important association with Cold War-era nuclear testing from 1951 through 1992. It has not been evaluated under Criteria B and D to date. As part of a larger modernization program for Mercury, the NNSA/NFO and the SHPO executed the 2018 Programmatic Agreement between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada (Mercury PA). The Mercury PA includes streamlined Section 106 procedures for undertakings in the MHD based on contributing element categories. Building 23-620 is identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element, indicating that it might be individually eligible for the NRHP. It is a historic property for the purposes of Section 106 compliance and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA. Per Stipulation VI of the Mercury PA, when the Area of Potential Effect (APE) for an undertaking includes Category I elements, the NNSA/NFO must evaluate the Category I elements for individual NRHP eligibility under all of the SOI Significance Criteria prior to initiating any activity that may affect the elements. The purpose of this report is to evaluate Building 23-620 as a potential individually eligible historic property in fulfillment of Stipulation VI of the Mercury PA. The evaluation detailed herein concludes that Building 23-620 is not individually eligible for listing in the NRHP. Although it retains aspects of integrity and continues to contribute to the MHD, it is not individually significant under any of the SOI Significance Criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comparative Evaluation and Selection of High-Temperature Heat Exchangers for Application to Integrated Energy Systems

The following report aims to create a refined and well-structured method for comparatively evaluating heat exchanger technologies for integrated energy systems that caters customers’ specific needs while meeting engineering requirements. For the evaluation, this study elevates previous evaluation metrics, enhances the knowledge base via literature and market surveys, and identifies the figures of merit with robust rationales to enhance the quality of decisions made throughout the proposed heat exchanger evaluation process. The heat exchanger designs evaluated as part of the case study are shell and tube heat exchangers, printed circuit heat exchangers, plate heat exchangers, spiral heat exchangers, and heat pipe heat exchangers. The information presented in this report is meant for industries interested in making a preliminary screening process to identify the most suitable heat exchanger design for their application of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identification and Evaluation of Thermal Transport Components for Integrated Energy Systems

A proper evaluation and selection of component technologies is a critical aspect in the development of Integrated Energy System (IES). This study aims to investigate the key components and associated technologies required to build high-temperature heat transport systems for IES. Of particular interest is the component technologies needed to design and construct IES that combines advanced nuclear reactors with high-temperature industrial processes. This study particularly delved into knowledge base, evaluation metrics, and state-of-the-art commercial technologies, aiming to facilitate the evaluation and selection process of various thermal transport components. In addition, an evaluation process was proposed in order to assist in the optimal selection of the thermal transport components based on the knowledge base and evaluation metrics investigated through this study.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Heat Exchanger Technology for Integrated Energy System: Methodology and Preliminary Application

This report proposes a novel heat exchanger evaluation method, based on integrated QFD-AHP technique, to support strategic optimal selection of heat exchanger (HX) technology for integrated energy systems. The term “optimal selection” is defined as selecting a product (i.e., HX) that best meets various aspects of end user demand, including both technical and economic requirements. Compared to previous HX evaluation methods, the proposed approach allows decision makers to explicitly take into account the practical demand of customers (i.e., HX end users) which may vary depending on the HX application target. In addition, the proposed evaluation method can be used not only for high-level decisions to select HX type, but also for low-level decisions such as the selection of the key components including HX material or heat transfer fluid. The focus of this study is to describe the new HX evaluation method and to illustrate the overall HX evaluation and selection processes using the three nuclear heat application cases that represent the thermal integration between advanced nuclear reactors and industrial processes. As a preliminary study, three different types of HX, i.e., shell-and-tube heat exchanger, printed circuit heat exchanger, and heat pipe heat exchanger, were compared.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydropower Biological Evaluation Toolset Best Practice Guide

Field studies using live fish are necessary for the evaluation of turbine biological performance, but they cannot determine the specific hydraulic conditions or physical stresses experienced by the fish, the locations where deleterious conditions occur, or the specific causes of the biological response. Using the Sensor Fish (SF) sensing technology, this deficiency can be overcome because the SF can be released independently or concurrently with live fish directly into operating infrastructure, and it takes high-frequency measurements of hydraulic conditions such as pressure, acceleration, and rotation acting on a body in situ during downstream passage. The Hydropower Biological Evaluation Tools (HBET; Hou et al. 2018) software package, developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), is designed to assemble, organize, and process data collected by the PNNL-developed SF and by live fish. HBET was developed specifically to design SF field studies, process the raw data, and analyze the processed data efficiently and scientifically. Its objectives are to facilitate SF studies focused on characterizing hydraulic conditions and to apply SF data for evaluating the impacts on fish from passage through hydro-structures. HBET allows users to design new studies, analyze data, perform statistical analyses, and evaluate predicted biological responses. It can be used by researchers, turbine designers, hydropower operators, and regulators to evaluate hydro-structures to enhance environmental sustainability in a cost-effective manner.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comparative Evaluation and Selection of High-Temperature Heat Exchangers for Application to Integrated Energy Systems

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Machine Learning-Based MRI Reconstruction Using Digital Image Quality Phantoms

Quantitative and objective evaluation tools are essential for assessing the performance of machine learning (ML)-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reconstruction methods. However, the commonly used fidelity metrics, such as mean squared error (MSE), structural similarity (SSIM), and peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR), often fail to capture fundamental and clinically relevant MR image quality aspects. To address this, we propose evaluation of ML-based MRI reconstruction using digital image quality phantoms and automated evaluation methods. Our phantoms are based upon the American College of Radiology (ACR) large physical phantom but created in k-space to simulate their MR images, and they can vary in object size, signal-to-noise ratio, resolution, and image contrast. Our evaluation pipeline incorporates evaluation metrics of geometric accuracy, intensity uniformity, percentage ghosting, sharpness, signal-to-noise ratio, resolution, and low-contrast detectability. We demonstrate the utility of our proposed pipeline by assessing an example ML-based reconstruction model across various training and testing scenarios. The performance results indicate that training data acquired with a lower undersampling factor and coils of larger anatomical coverage yield a better performing model. The comprehensive and standardized pipeline introduced in this study can help to facilitate a better understanding of the performance and guide future development and advancement of ML-based reconstruction algorithms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using radar observations to evaluate 3-D radar echo structure simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the Department of Energy has a goal of addressing challenges in understanding the global water cycle. Success depends on correct simulation of cloud and precipitation elements. However, lack of appropriate evaluation metrics has hindered the accurate representation of these elements in general circulation models. We derive metrics from the three-dimensional data of the ground-based Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over the US to evaluate both horizontal and vertical structures of precipitation elements. We coarsened the resolution of the radar observations to be consistent with the model resolution and improved the coupling of the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observation Simulator Package (COSP) and E3SM Atmospheric Model Version 1 (EAMv1) to obtain the best possible model output for comparison with the observations. Three warm seasons (2014–2016) of EAMv1 simulations of 3-D radar reflectivity features at an hourly scale are evaluated. A general agreement in domain-mean radar reflectivity intensity is found between EAMv1 and NEXRAD below 4 km altitude; however, the model underestimates reflectivity over the central US, which suggests that the model does not capture the mesoscale convective systems that produce much of the precipitation in that region. The shape of the model-estimated histogram of subgrid-scale reflectivity is improved by correcting the microphysical assumptions in COSP. Different from previous studies that evaluated modeled cloud top height, we find the model severely underestimates radar reflectivity at upper levels – the simulated echo top height is about 5 km lower than in observations – and this result is not changed by tuning any single physics parameter. For more accurate model evaluation, a higher-order consistency between the COSP and the host model is warranted in future studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Bus (FCEB) Evaluations in US Public Transit Service

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratory focused on renewable energy and energy efficiency. NREL has evaluated alternative fuel and advanced propulsion transit buses for DOE and the U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Transit Administration (FTA). These evaluations are focused on determining the status of fuel cell systems and the corresponding infrastructure in transit applications to help DOE and FTA assess the progress toward technology readiness. For the last 19 years NREL has evaluated FCEBs in service around the United States and in Canada. The results of these evaluations have been published in numerous reports that compare FCEB performance to conventional technology as well as document the implementation experience and lessons learned by the transit agencies and their demonstration teams. Currently, 70 fuel cell buses are in active service in the US and 66 FCEBs are in development. NREL is evaluating a subset of the active FCEBs that includes three transit agencies demonstrating 25 fuel cell electric buses in California. One bus has exceeded 35,000 hours in service and 12 have exceeded 25,000 hours. Fuel economy for the current generation of FCEBs has improved 35% over the previous generation and is double that of conventional buses. Maintenance cost for FCEBs is equivalent to diesel and BEBs. The most up-to-date performance results will be presented, including fuel economy, availability, reliability, and operational costs.

bus↗

DOE OSTI2022

Durability Evaluation of Advanced Fenestration Technologies

In the U.S., more than 40% of primary energy and 70% of electricity is consumed in residential and commercial buildings, resulting in annual energy costs of more than $430 billion. Approximately 35% of this consumption can be attributed to losses through the building envelope, of which windows are currently the weakest link. Multiple technologies are under development to improve this performance. This includes dynamic and photovoltaic glazing as well as emerging highly insulating technologies including vacuum insulating glass (VIG), aerogels and thin-glass based multi-pane configurations. While windows are specified based on expected performance as installed, the energy savings realized by high performance windows are delivered over time. This makes it critical to understand and maximize the durability of high-performance windows to ensure those projected energy savings are delivered. Present methods for evaluating durability are based on existing technologies. These methods may not apply or be adequate for newer emerging technologies which often present novel failure mechanisms that need to be understood and evaluated differently. In this presentation, we will discuss our efforts to define appropriate methods to improve the evaluation of many existing technologies as well as evaluate the durability of emerging window technologies. This work results from the combination of an extensive review of various international standards as well as existing scientific literature. In addition, input was gathered from multiple industry stakeholders regarding present practice as well as feedback on proposed improvements to existing methods. Here we will share these findings and present proposed improvements to developing and existing durability evaluation protocols.

building envelope↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heuristic Evaluation Methods Applied to a Predictive Maintenance Chatbot

The need for an accessible iterative approach for evaluating prospective artificial intelligence (AI)/ML based technologies in the nuclear industry is needed, given the nature of algorithms and rapid advancements. This paper explores existing heuristic design principles for user-centered design and evaluates them based on their relevancy and usefulness for evaluating AI/ ML based technologies. Researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have developed a machine learning software application called VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER), which is used to help users understand and engage with the tool to learn more about work orders, data used, predictive maintenance, and machine learning (ML) algorithms. Early user research studies used to access VIPER’s technology readiness level have occurred; however, there is room for further improvement of the software through heuristic evaluations along with other methods and user testing. This work describes the applicability of heuristic evaluation methods and cognitive walkthroughs to help ensure human readiness for prospective AI/ ML based applications, using VIPER as a candidate use case. This work supports industry in ensuring that prospective AI/ML based technologies are usable and useful for plant personnel at nuclear power plants, ultimately leading to their safe, reliable, and efficient use.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Technical, Economic, Risk, and Adoption Assessment for Evaluating Work Reduction Opportunities in the Nuclear Industry

Automation and cost-saving initiatives, such as process automation with advances in artificial intelligence, are gaining traction in modernization efforts across the nuclear industry. As these innovations are increasingly adopted, it becomes crucial to evaluate their impacts comprehensively. Various technical and economic attributes, along with risk and human readiness factors, must be achieved to ensure that innovative projects enabling automation and modernization are successful. However, no systematic or integrated framework exists that allows plants to evaluate these innovative projects. To address this gap, the Technical, Economic, Risk, and Adoption (TERA) assessment offers a structured method to evaluate innovative technologies, ensuring solutions meet both operational and safety standards. The TERA framework integrates the disparate perspectives to assess modernization opportunities in nuclear operations. It combines qualitative and quantitative models to evaluate the relationship between performance and business impacts, while also enabling continuous re-evaluation during project development. This approach helps plant owners identify high-priority opportunities, optimize cost savings, and minimize risks, ensuring projects remain on track to achieve desired returns. By providing a comprehensive, systematic methodology, TERA enables informed, data-driven decisions that support successful modernization efforts, enhancing efficiency, safety, and cost savings across nuclear operations. This paper explains the TERA framework and its benefits for the nuclear industry.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗