Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Modeling of Aircraft Unsteady Aerodynamic Characteristics/Part 3 - Parameters Estimated from Flight Data: Parameters Estimated from Flight Data - Part 3

A nonlinear least squares algorithm for aircraft parameter estimation from flight data was developed. The postulated model for the analysis represented longitudinal, short period motion of an aircraft. The corresponding aerodynamic model equations included indicial functions (unsteady terms) and conventional stability and control derivatives. The indicial functions were modeled as simple exponential functions. The estimation procedure was applied in five examples. Four of the examples used simulated and flight data from small amplitude maneuvers to the F-18 HARV and X-31A aircraft. In the fifth example a rapid, large amplitude maneuver of the X-31 drop model was analyzed. From data analysis of small amplitude maneuvers ft was found that the model with conventional stability and control derivatives was adequate. Also, parameter estimation from a rapid, large amplitude maneuver did not reveal any noticeable presence of unsteady aerodynamics.

Klein, Vladislav↗
NASA NTRS1999

Carrier Estimation Using Classic Spectral Estimation Techniques for the Proposed Demand Assignment Multiple Access Service

In any satellite communication, the Doppler shift associated with the satellite's position and velocity must be calculated in order to determine the carrier frequency. If the satellite state vector is unknown then some estimate must be formed of the Doppler-shifted carrier frequency. One elementary technique is to examine the signal spectrum and base the estimate on the dominant spectral component. If, however, the carrier is spread (as in most satellite communications) this technique may fail unless the chip rate-to-data rate ratio (processing gain) associated with the carrier is small. In this case, there may be enough spectral energy to allow peak detection against a noise background. In this thesis, we present a method to estimate the frequency (without knowledge of the Doppler shift) of a spread-spectrum carrier assuming a small processing gain and binary-phase shift keying (BPSK) modulation. Our method relies on an averaged discrete Fourier transform along with peak detection on spectral match filtered data. We provide theory and simulation results indicating the accuracy of this method. In addition, we will describe an all-digital hardware design based around a Motorola DSP56303 and high-speed A/D which implements this technique in real-time. The hardware design is to be used in NMSU's implementation of NASA's demand assignment, multiple access (DAMA) service.

Scaife, Bradley James↗
NASA NTRS2015

Commercial Crew Cost Estimating - A Look at Estimating Processes, Challenges and Lessons Learned

To support annual PPBE budgets and NASA HQ requests for cost information for commercial crew transportation to the International Space Station (ISS), the NASA ISS ACES team developed system development and per flight cost estimates for the potential providers for each annual PPBE submit from 2009-2014. This paper describes the cost estimating processes used, challenges and lessons learned to develop estimates for this key NASA project that diverted from the traditional procurement approach and used a new way of doing business

Battle, Rick↗
NASA NTRS2020

Estimate Early and Estimate Often: How Your Concurrent Engineering Design Team Can Bootstrap Your Organizations Programmatic Capabilities

What do you do when it is necessary to generate reasonable cost estimates at the earliest Concept Maturity Levels and you have never flown any similar missions before? This paper describes the current and future Team X and A-Team cost processes and methods, how they are being used to expand our data frontiers, cost modelling capabilities and how this enables the ability to estimate early and estimate often.

Hihn, Jairus↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Machine Learning Techniques for Simulation-Based Inference: InferoStatic Nets, Kernel Score Estimation, and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation

We propose an intuitive, machine-learning approach to multiparameter inference, dubbed the InferoStatic Networks (ISN) method, to model the score and likelihood ratio estimators in cases when the probability density can be sampled but not computed directly. The ISN uses a backend neural network that models a scalar function called the inferostatic potential $\varphi$. In addition, we introduce new strategies, respectively called Kernel Score Estimation (KSE) and Kernel Likelihood Ratio Estimation (KLRE), to learn the score and the likelihood ratio functions from simulated data. We illustrate the new techniques with some toy examples and compare to existing approaches in the literature. We mention en passant some new loss functions that optimally incorporate latent information from simulations into the training procedure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Monte Carlo estimates of sensitivities to geometric perturbations for shielding problems using kernel density estimators - 25605

A Monte Carlo method to estimate the sensitivity of reaction rates like dose and flux spectra to geometric perturbations using kernel density estimators is demonstrated for shielding problems. The method is used to estimate the sensitivity of the spectrum emitted from a Cf-252 source at the center of an iron sphere as well as the sensitivity of the dose due to Cf-252 neutrons shielded using various materials. Results are compared against reference solutions obtained using Monte Carlo direct perturbations with central differences, with agreement within 5% and 3σ for the majority of results. The results indicate that a bandwidth that is 10-20% of the shielding thickness produces accurate results with statistically insignificant bias for the chosen test problems. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Iterative Importance Sampling Algorithms for Parameter Estimation

In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of such problems. An alternative to MCMC is importance sampling, which can exhibit near perfect scaling with the number of cores on high performance computing systems because samples are drawn independently. However, finding a suitable proposal distribution is a challenging task. Several sampling algorithms have been proposed over the past years that take an iterative approach to constructing a proposal distribution. We investigate the applicability of such algorithms by applying them to two realistic and challenging test problems, one in subsurface flow, and one in combustion modeling. More specifically, we implement importance sampling algorithms that iterate over the mean and covariance matrix of Gaussian or multivariate t-proposal distributions. Our implementation leverages massively parallel computers, and we present strategies to initialize the iterations using “coarse” MCMC runs or Gaussian mixture models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1996

Estimating the Cost of Doing a Cost Estimate

This article provides a model for estimating the cost required to do a cost estimate...Our earlier work provided data for high technology projects. This article adds data from the construction industry which validates the model over a wider range of technology.

Cost cost estimating budgets budget estimating pro↗
DOE OSTI2024

Source shape estimation for neutron imaging systems using convolutional neural networks

Neutron imaging systems are important diagnostic tools for characterizing the physics of inertial confinement fusion reactions at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). In particular, neutron images give diagnostic information on the size, symmetry, and shape of the fusion hot spot and surrounding cold fuel. Images are formed via collection of neutron flux from the source using a system of aperture arrays and scintillator-based detectors. Currently, reconstruction of fusion source geometry from the collected neutron images is accomplished by solving a computationally intensive maximum likelihood estimation problem via expectation maximization. In contrast, it is often useful to have simple representations of the overall source geometry that can be computed quickly. In this work, we develop convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to reconstruct the outer contours of simple source geometries. We compare the performance of the CNN for penumbral and pinhole data and provide experimental demonstrations of our methods on both non-noisy and noisy data.

Machine learning, neutron imaging, source reconstr↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Novel Technique Applying Spectral Estimation to Johnson Noise Thermometry

Johnson noise thermometry is one of many important measurement techniques used to monitor the safety levels and stability in a nuclear reactor. However, this measurement is very dependent on the minimal electromagnetic environment. Properly removing unwanted electromagnetic interference (EMI) is critical for accurate drift-free temperature measurements. The two techniques developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to remove transient and periodic EMI are briefly discussed here. Spectral estimation is a key component in the signal processing algorithm used for EMI removal and temperature calculation. The cross-power spectral density is a key component in the Johnson noise temperature computation. Applying either technique requires the simple addition of electronics and signal processing to existing resistive thermometers. With minimal installation changes, the system discussed here can be installed on existing nuclear power plants. The Johnson noise system developed is tested at three locations: ORNL, Sandia National Laboratory, and the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Kingston Fossil Plant. Each of these locations enabled improvement on the EMI removal algorithm. Finally, the conclusions made from the results at each of these locations is discussed, as well as possible future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust Medium-Voltage Distribution System State Estimation using Multi-Source Data

Due to the lack of sufficient online measurements for distribution system observability, pseudo-measurements from short-term load or distributed renewable energy resources (DERs) forecasting are used. However, the accuracy of them is low and thus significantly limits the performance of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). In this paper, a robust DSSE that integrates multi-source measurement data is proposed. Specifically, the historical low-voltage (LV) side smart meters are used to forecast load and DERs injections via the support vector machine (SVM) with optimally tuned parameters. By contrast, the online smart meters at LV side are utilized to derive equivalent power injections at the MV/LV transformers, yielding more accurate pseudo-measurements compared to the forecasted injections. Furthermore, to deal with bad data caused by communication loss, instrumental errors and cyber attacks, robust DSSE that relies on generalized maximum-likelihood (GM)-estimation criterion is developed. The projection statistics are developed to adjust the weights of each measurement, leading to better balance between pseudo- and real-time measurements. Numerical results conducted on modified IEEE 33-bus system with DG integration demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method.

distribution system state estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Sensor Deployment for Distribution System State Estimation and Fault Identification

Distribution systems are currently facing steep operational challenges as a result of the rapidly increasing integration of renewables and other distributed energy resources (DERs) at both the primary and secondary circuit levels. Distribution utilities and system operators have traditionally had some visibility of their primary circuits using low-frequency supervisory control and data acquisition systems, and they have had very poor if not zero visibility of the secondary circuits where the presence of DERs is constantly increasing. Therefore, this paper presents simulation studies to demonstrate the benefits of an advanced, high-fidelity sensor technology, called as the Meta-Alert System (MAS), developed by Electrical Grid Monitoring, Ltd. (EGM), on the distribution grid. First, a reliable model of the EGM sensors is developed, and then two use cases, distribution system state estimation (DSSE) and fault identification are simulated to evaluate the performance of the MAS technology. Simulation results on the Electric Power Research Institute J1 feeder demonstrate that the MAS can effectively participate in system-level DSSE programs and can detect and locate faults faster than traditional distribution protection schemes.

distribution system↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale analysis in solids with unseparated scales: fine-scale recovery, error estimation, and coarse-scale adaptivity

There are several engineering applications in which the assumptions of homogenization and scale separation may be violated, in particular, for metallic structures constructed through additive manufacturing. Instead of resorting to direct numerical simulation of the macroscale system with an embedded fine scale, an alternative approach is to use an approximate macroscale constitutive model, but then estimate the model-form error using a posteriori error estimation techniques and subsequently adapt the macroscale model to reduce the error for a given boundary value problem and quantity of interest. Here, we investigate this approach to multiscale analysis in solids with unseparated scales using the example of an additively manufactured metallic structure consisting of a polycrystalline microstructure that is neither periodic nor statistically homogeneous. As a first step to the general nonlinear case, we focus here on linear elasticity in which each grain within the polycrystal is linear elastic but anisotropic.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study: Estimation Framework and Initial Estimates

The U.S. DOE Residential Lighting End-Use Consumption Study is an initiative of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Solid-State Lighting Program that aims to improve the understanding of lighting energy usage in residential dwellings. The study has developed a regional estimation framework within a national sample design that allows for the estimation of lamp usage and energy consumption 1) nationally and by region of the United States, 2) by certain household characteristics, 3) by location within the home, 4) by certain lamp characteristics, and 5) by certain categorical cross-classifications (e.g., by dwelling type AND lamp type or fixture type AND control type).

End-Use Consumption↗
DOE OSTI2017

Aerosol and cloud microphysics covariability in the northeast Pacific boundary layer estimated with ship-based and satellite remote sensing observations: NE Pacific Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

Ship measurements collected over the northeast Pacific along transects between the port of Los Angeles (33.7°N, 118.2°W) and Honolulu (21.3°N, 157.8°W) during May to August 2013 were utilized to investigate the covariability between marine low cloud microphysical and aerosol properties. Ship-based retrievals of cloud optical depth (τ) from a Sun photometer and liquid water path (LWP) from a microwave radiometer were combined to derive cloud droplet number concentration Nd and compute a cloud-aerosol interaction (ACI) metric defined as ACICCN = ∂ ln(Nd)/∂ ln(CCN), with CCN denoting the cloud condensation nuclei concentration measured at 0.4% (CCN0.4) and 0.3% (CCN0.3) supersaturation. Analysis of CCN0.4, accumulation mode aerosol concentration (Na), and extinction coefficient (σext) indicates that Na and σext can be used as CCN0.4 proxies for estimating ACI. ACICCN derived from 10 min averaged Nd and CCN0.4 and CCN0.3, and CCN0.4 regressions using Na and σext, produce high ACICCN: near 1.0, that is, a fractional change in aerosols is associated with an equivalent fractional change in Nd. ACICCN computed in deep boundary layers was small (ACICCN = 0.60), indicating that surface aerosol measurements inadequately represent the aerosol variability below clouds. Satellite cloud retrievals from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and GOES-15 data were compared against ship-based retrievals and further analyzed to compute a satellite-based ACICCN. Satellite data correlated well with their ship-based counterparts with linear correlation coefficients equal to or greater than 0.78. Combined satellite Nd and ship-based CCN0.4 and Na yielded a maximum ACICCN = 0.88–0.92, a value slightly less than the ship-based ACICCN, but still consistent with aircraft-based studies in the eastern Pacific.

Painemal, David↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating heterotrophic respiration at large scales: challenges, approaches, and next steps

Heterotrophic respiration (HR), the aerobic and anaerobic processes mineralizing organic matter, is a key carbon flux but one impossible to measure at scales significantly larger than small experimental plots. This impedes our ability to understand carbon and nutrient cycles, benchmark models, or reliably upscale point measurements. Given that a new generation of highly mechanistic, genomic-specific global models is not imminent, we suggest that a useful step to improve this situation would be the development of "Decomposition Functional Types" (DFTs). Analogous to plant functional types (PFTs), DFTs would abstract and capture important differences in HR metabolism and flux dynamics, allowing models to efficiently group and vary these characteristics across space and time. We argue that DFTs should be initially informed by top-down expert opinion, but ultimately developed using bottom-up, data-driven analyses, and provide specific examples of potential dependent and independent variables that could be used. We present and discuss an example clustering analysis to show how model-produced annual HR can be broken into distinct groups associated with global variability in biotic and abiotic factors, and demonstrate that these groups are distinct from already-existing PFTs. A similar analysis, incorporating observational data, could form a basis for future DFTs. Finally, we suggest next steps and critical priorities: collection and synthesis of existing data; more in-depth analyses combining open data with high-performance computing; rigorous testing of analytical results; and planning by the global modeling community for decoupling decomposition from fixed site data. These are all critical steps to build a foundation for DFTs in global models, thus providing the ecological and climate change communities with robust, scalable estimates of HR at large scales.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2018

Application of Unbiased Estimators to Group Classification Risk Estimation

We consider the problem of construction of point and interval estimators for the Bayesian risk of a group classification decision rule provided that the elements of training samples have distributions belonging to the same one-parameter exponential family. We propose a solution to this problem using the asymptotic normality and efficiency of an unbiased risk estimator. An example of application of the obtained theoretical results is given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗