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NASA NTRS1989

Seasonal variations of volcanic eruption frequencies

Do volcanic eruptions have a tendency to occur more frequently in the months of May and June? Some past evidence suggests that they do. The present study, based on the new eruption catalog of Simkin et al.(1981), investigates the monthly statistics of the largest eruptions, grouped according to explosive magnitude, geographical latitude, and year. At the 2-delta level, no month-to-month variations in eruption frequency are found to be statistically significant. Examination of previously published month-to-month variations suggests that they, too, are not statistically significant. It is concluded that volcanism, at least averaged over large portions of the globe, is probably not periodic on a seasonal or annual time scale.

Stothers, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Magnetic field evolution during prominence eruptions and two-ribbon flares

Simple models for the MHD eruption of a solar prominence are presented in which the prominence is treated as a twisted magnetic flux tube that is being repelled from the solar surface by magnetic pressure forces. Including a background magnetic field allows the prominence to be in equilibrium initially with an inverse polarity and then to erupt due to magnetic nonequilibrium when the background magnetic field is too small or the prominence twist is too great. The electric field at the neutral point below the prominence rapidly increases to a maximum value and then declines. Including the effect of gravity also allows an equilibrium with normal polarity to exist. Finally, an ideal MHD solution is found which incorporates self-consistently a current sheet below the prominence and which implies that a prominence will still erupt and form a current sheet even if no reconnection occurs. When reconnection is allowed it is, therefore, driven by the eruption.

Priest, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Initial assessment of the stratospheric and climatic impact of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption - Prologue

An overview is given of the techniques employed to evaluate the early effects of the volcanic eruption on the stratosphere and climate, and data are given on the initial eruption yield. Global satellite measurements were taken by TOMS, SAGE II, AVHRR, and other devices, and the initial results indicate an eruption yield of 20 megatons of SO2 and 20-30 megatons of H2SO4/H2O aerosol mass. The predicted effects of the eruption - accelerated global ozone depletion and surface cooling - can be compared to meteorological data to test the validity of present climate models based on these data.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Pinatubo eruption winter climate effects: Model versus observations

Large volcanic eruptions, in addition to the well-known effect of producing global cooling for a year or two, have been observed to produce shorter-term responses in the climate system involving non-linear dynamical processes. In this paper, we use the ECHAM2 general circulation model forced with stratospheric aerosols to test some of these ideas. Run in a perpetual-January mode, with tropical stratospheric heating from the volcanic aerosols typical of the 1982 El Chichon eruption or the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, we find a dynamical response with an increased polar night jet in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and stronger zonal winds which extended down into the troposphere. The Azores High shifts northward with increased tropospheric westerlies at 60N and increased easterlies at 30N. Surface temperatures are higher both in northern Eurasia and North America, in agreement with observations for the NH winters or 1982-83 and 1991-92 as well as the winters following the other 10 largest volcanic eruptions since 1883.

Graf, HANS-F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

Robock, Alan↗
NASA NTRS1992

Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

Robock, Alan↗
NASA NTRS1993

Changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature due to the eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo

The paper investigates the impact of the Mt. Pinatubo eruptions on the total column ozone measured from the Nimbus 8 TOMS and the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectrometers. Within a few months after the eruptions, the total column ozone decreased by 5-6 percent in the tropics, 3-4 percent at midlatitudes, and 6-9 percent at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. After the effects of quasi-biennial oscillations and interannual variability are taken into account, the decrease in the column ozone attributed to volcanic eruptions at these latitudes may not be more than 2-4 percent. The most noticeable effect on the Pinatubo eruptions, as observed during the El Chichon period, is the breakdown of the phase relation between ozone and temperature. This is attributed to additional heating in the lower stratosphere caused by volcanic aerosols.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Reconstruction of the dynamics of the 1800-1801 Hualalai eruption: Implications for planetary lava flows

The 1800-1801 eruption of alkalic basalt from the Hualalai volcano, Hawaii provides a unique opportunity for investigating the dynamics of lava flow emplacement with eruption rates and compositions comparable to those that have been suggested for planetary eruptions. Field observations suggest new considerations must be used to reconstruct the emplacement of these lava flows. These observations are: (1) the flow traversed the 15 km from the vent to the sea so rapidly that no significant crust formed and an observation of the eruption reported that the flow reach the sea from the vent in approximately 1 hour; (2) the drainage of beds of xenolith nodules indicates a highly fluid, low viscosity lava; (3) overspills and other morphologic evidence for a very low viscosity host fluid; (4) no significant longitudinal increase in flow thickness that might be associated with an increase in the rheological properties of the lava; and (5) the relatively large size of channels associated with the flow, up to 80 meters across and several km long. Models for many geologic mass movements and fast moving fluids with various loadings and suspensions are discussed.

Baloga, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climatic and Demographic Consequences of the Massive Volcanic Eruption of 1258

Somewhere in the tropics, a volcano exploded violently during the year 1258, producing a massive stratospheric aerosol veil that eventually blanketed the globe. Arctic and Antarctic ice cores suggest that this was the world's largest volcanic eruption of the past millennium. According to contemporary chronicles, the stratospheric dry fog possibly manifested itself in Europe as a persistently cloudy aspect of the sky and also through an apparently total darkening of the eclipsed Moon. Based on a sudden temperature drop for several months in England, the eruption's initiation date can be inferred to have been probably January 1258. The frequent cold and rain that year led to severe crop damage and famine throughout much of Europe. Pestilence repeatedly broke out in 1258 and 1259; it occurred also in the Middle East, reportedly there as plague. Another very cold winter followed in 1260-1261. The troubled period's wars, famines, pestilences, and earthquakes appear to have contributed in part to the rise of the European flagellant movement of 1260, one of the most bizarre social phenomena of the Middle Ages. Analogies can be drawn with the climatic aftereffects and European social unrest following another great tropical eruption, Tambora in 1815. Some generalizations about the climatic impacts of tropical eruptions are made from these and other data.

Stothers, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Sulfur Dioxide Plume from the February 26, 2000 Eruption of Mt. Hekla, Iceland

The February 2000 fissure eruption of Mt. Hekla, Iceland was captured in sulfur dioxide data from the Earth Probe TOMS. A special algorithm is used to discriminate sulfur dioxide from ozone. The eruption began at 18:19 GMT on February 26, 2000 and was first viewed by TOMS at 09:55 GMT on February 27. The volcanic cloud at that time appeared as a very long and narrow arc extending west from the volcano in southern Iceland, then north across Greenland, and finally east towards Norway. The cloud altitude was reported from aircraft sightings and data to be above 10 km. The circulation of a ridge located north of Iceland produced the large arc shaped cloud. As the eruption is non-explosive the high altitude cloud contains little ash. Almost all the ash from the eruption fell out locally across Iceland. By February 29, the sulfur dioxide cloud had drifted eastward in a band along the Barents Sea coast of Norway and Russia. The analysis includes an assessment of the initial sulfur dioxide content and its rate of conversion to sulfate.

Krueger, Arlin J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Tether-Cutting Energetics of a Solar Quiet Region Prominence Eruption

We study the morphology and energetics of a slowly-evolving quiet region solar prominence eruption occurring on 1999 February 8-9 in the solar north polar crown region, using soft X-ray data from the soft X-ray telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh and Fe xv EUV 284 A data from the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on SOHO. After rising at approx. 1 km/s for about six hours, the prominence accelerates to a velocity of approx. 10 km/s, leaving behind EUV and soft X-ray loop arcades of a weak flare in its source region. Intensity dimmings occur in the eruption region cospatially in EUV and soft X-rays, indicating that the dimmings result from a depletion of material. Over the first two hours of the prominence s rapid rise, flare-like brightenings occur beneath the rising prominence which may correspond to "tether cutting" magnetic reconnection. These brightenings have heating requirements of up to approx. 10(exp 28)-10(exp 29) ergs, and this is comparable to the mechanical energy required for the rising prominence over the same time period. If the ratio of mechanical energy to heating energy remains constant through the early phase of the eruption, then we infer that coronal signatures for the tether cutting may not be apparent at or shortly after the start of the fast phase in this or similar low-energy eruptions, since the plasma-heating energy levels would not exceed that of the background corona.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Tether-Cutting Energetics of a Solar Quiet Region Prominence Eruption

We study the morphology and energetics of a slowly evolving quiet-region solar prominence eruption occurring on 1999 February 8-9 in the solar north polar crown region, using soft X-ray data from the soft X-ray telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh and Fexv EUV 284 Angstrom data from the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). After rising at approximately equal to l kilometer per second for about six hours, the prominence accelerates to a velocity of approximately equal to 10 kilometers per second, leaving behind EUV and soft X-ray loop arcades of a weak flare in its source region. Intensity dimmings occur in the eruption region cospatially in EUV and soft X-rays, indicating that the dimmings result from a depletion of material. Over the first two hours of the prominences rapid rise, flare-like brightenings occur beneath the rising prominence that might correspond to tether-cutting magnetic reconnection. These brightenings have heating requirements of up to approximately 10(exp 28)-10(exp 29) ergs, and this is comparable to the mechanical energy required for the rising prominence over the same time period. If the ratio of mechanical energy to heating energy remains constant through the early phase of the eruption, then we infer that coronal signatures for the tether cutting may not be apparent at or shortly after the start of the fast phase in this or similar low-energy eruptions, since the plasma-heating energy levels would not exceed that of the background corona.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Initiation of Solar Eruptions: Recent Observations and Implications for Theories

Solar eruptions involve the violent disruption of a system of magnetic field. Just how the field is destabilized and explodes to produce flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is still being debated in the solar community. Here I discuss recent observational work into these questions by ourselves (me and my colleagues) and others. Our work has concentrated mainly on eruptions that include filaments. We use the filament motion early in the event as a tracer of the motion of the general erupting coronal field in and around the filament, since that field itself is hard to distinguish otherwise. Our main data sources are EUV images from SOHO/EIT and TRACE, soft Xray images from Yohkoh, and magnetograms from SOHO/MDI, supplemented with coronagraph images from SOHO/LASCO, hard X-ray data, and ground-based observations. We consider the observational findings in terms of three proposed eruption-initiation mechanisms: (i) runaway internal tether-cutting reconnection, (ii) slow external tether-cutting reconnection ("breakout"), and (iii) ideal MHD instability.

Sterling, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Hinode Observations of the Onset Stage of a Solar Filament Eruption

We use Hinode X-Ray Telescope (XRT) and Solar Optical Telescope (SOT) filtergraph (FG) Stokes-V magnetogram observations, to study the early onset of a solar eruption that includes an erupting filament that we observe in TRACE EUV images. The filament undergoes a slow rise for about 20 min prior to its fast eruption and strong soft X-ray flaring, and the new Hinode data elucidate the physical processes occurring during the slow-rise period. Magnetic flux cancellation occurs along the neutral line of the filament, beginning several hours before eruption. During the slow-rise phase, a soft X-ray (SXR) sigmoid forms from apparent reconnection low in the sheared core field traced by the filament, and there is a low-level intensity peak in both EUV and SXRs at the start of the slow rise.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Questions Concerning the Disconnection and Eruption of Filaments and CMEs

Reviews examples of eruptions and failed eruptions of filaments and CMEs and review questions concerning the processes and mechanisms involved. Where and how does disconnection occur? What can we learn (if anything!) about CME eruptions by observing related filament eruptions?

Kucera, Theresa↗
NASA NTRS2010

Strong Rotation of an Erupting Quiescent Polar Crown Prominence

On 5-6 June 2007, a large quiescent polar crown prominence was observed to erupt by the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft. This eruption was particularly visible in the 304 A channel of the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUVI) telescopes. A detailed analysis of the fine structures in the images allows the three-dimensional structure of the erupting prominence to be derived. The prominence is seen to undergo substantial rotation of at least 90 along the radial axis as it rises, with indications that additional rotation occurred before the prominence rose into the STEREO fields of view. Two temporary structures ("spurs") are seen to form at an angle to the main spine of the prominence, and are interpreted as signs of reconnection. These reconnection events contribute to the overall rotation of the prominence. A significant fraction of the prominence material is drained through new field lines caused by one of the reconnection events, resulting in only a weak coronal mass ejection event observed by the STEREO and SOHO coronagraphs. The eruption is interpreted as being initiated by the helical kink instability, with subsequent modification by the reconnection events.

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