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At least 181 records · Page 10

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Downscaling↗

Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating the statistics of extreme precipitation over Eastern Africa

We report the Eastern Africa region experiences frequent extreme precipitation events that can cause destruction of property and environment, and loss of lives. Thus, there is a need to understand how these events may change in the future and how well the global climate models that are used to make projections can simulate precipitation extremes in this region before they can be used in downscaling or flood and drought impact assessment studies. In this work, we evaluated the ability of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to simulate present-day precipitation extremes over the Eastern Africa region during the two rainy seasons (March–May and September–November). We used nine extreme precipitation indices (including seven (one) indices of wet (dry) extremes) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The CMIP6 models were evaluated against two gridded observation datasets: Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42. Three model performance metrics (percentage bias, normalized root-mean-square error, and pattern correlation coefficient) were employed to further assess the strengths and weakness of the models. Our results show that the multi-model ensemble mean generally provides a better representation of observed precipitation and related extremes compared to individual models when considering all metrics and seasons. Several consistent biases are evident across CMIP6 models, which tend to overestimate the total-wet day precipitation and consecutive wet days, and underestimate very wet days and maximum 5-day precipitation in both seasons. Furthermore, no single model consistently performs best, model performance varies with the season and index under consideration and is generally independent of horizontal resolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Phase Identification in Synchrotron X-ray Diffraction Patterns of Ti–6Al–4V Using Computer Vision and Deep Learning

X-ray diffraction patterns contain information about the atomistic structure and microstructure (defect population) of materials, extracting detailed information from diffraction patterns is complex, demanding and relies on prior knowledge. Here, we hypothesize that deep-learning techniques can help to perform an effective and accurate analysis with high throughput rates. To demonstrate this concept, we applied a novel deep learning framework to determine the evolution of the β-phase volume fraction in a Ti–6Al–4V alloy during heat-treatment from video sequences of 2D diffraction patterns recorded in transmission and with highly monochromatic radiation in a synchrotron beamline. In particular, we studied the impact of network design on prediction reliability and computational performance. Networks of different architectures were trained using 3008 experimental 2D patterns. A well-tuned model was found to reproduce the phase fractions of another experimental data set, consisting of 1100 diffraction patterns, with a mean-square error as small as 2.6 x 10 -4 . The average prediction error of β-phase volume fraction was within 1.6 x 10 -2 (in each diffraction pattern) of the values obtained by conventional methods. Our work demonstrates that convolutional neural networks can evaluate high energy X-ray diffraction patterns with a remarkable level of reliability. Furthermore, it demonstrates the significance of network design on the reliability of predictions and computational performance. The most complex models do not necessarily result in highest accuracy and may even fail to learn from the data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Connecting Large‐Scale Meteorological Patterns to Extratropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Climate Models Using Self‐Organizing Maps

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for the majority of cool‐season extreme events in the northeastern United States (NEUS), often leading to high‐impact weather conditions that can have wide‐ranging socioeconomic impacts. Evaluating the ability of climate models to adequately simulate ETC dynamics is essential for improving model performance and increasing confidence in future projections used by stakeholders and policymakers. ETCs are traditionally studied using techniques such as case studies and synoptic typing, however, these approaches can be time‐consuming, require subjective analysis, and do not necessarily identify the coincident large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Here, we apply self‐organizing maps (SOMs) as an automated machine‐learning approach to characterize the LSMPs and associated frequency and intensity of discrete ETC events over NEUS. The dominant patterns of geopotential height variability are identified through SOM analysis of five reanalysis products during the last four decades. ETC events are tracked using TempestExtremes and are integrated with SOMs to classify the accumulated cyclone activity (ACA) associated with each pattern. We then evaluate the skill of CMIP6 historical experiments in simulating the LSMPs and ETC events identified in the SOM. Our results identify a robust bias toward more zonal patterns, with models struggling to reproduce the more amplified patterns typically associated with the highest cyclone activity. While model resolution has some impact on simulation credibility, model configuration appears to be more important in LSMP representation. The vast majority of CMIP6 models produce too few ETCs, although model errors are distributed around historical reanalyses when ACA is normalized by storm frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using the optimal combined index weight ratio to improve the probability of anomaly detection in big area additive manufacturing

Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) of composites requires significant time, energy, and material, so it is critical to reduce production inefficiencies to make functional parts without multiple iterations. Statistical process control coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a powerful technique that provides a quick, computationally inexpensive, and intuitive way for operators to detect defects that form in a manufacturing process without massive datasets. Recently, a combined index that is a weighted sum of the Hotelling's T 2 and squared residual error statistics has been proposed that can be monitored in one chart, improving interpretation accuracy and simplicity. However, the literature does not offer a formal method to optimise the weights. Here, we introduce two new approaches to the traditional weight selection approach using simulated and BAAM image data. Approach 1 uses a theoretically motivated optimum inspired by probabilistic principal component analysis. Approach 2 systematically varies the ratio of the weights to find the optimum. We show that approach 1 delivers optimal anomaly detection performance in select cases while approach 2 fares better in practice. Surprisingly, we also show that choosing a more complex PCA model has a minimal negative impact on anomaly detection performance compared to a more simplistic model.

3-dimensional printing↗

Artificial ground reflector size and position effects on energy yield and economics of single‐axis‐tracked bifacial photovoltaics

Abstract Artificial ground reflectors improve bifacial energy yield by increasing both front and rear‐incident irradiance. Studies have demonstrated an increase in energy yield due to the addition of artificial reflectors; however, they have not addressed the effect of varying reflector dimensions and placement on system performance and the impact of these parameters on the reflectors' financial viability. We studied the effect of high albedo (70% reflective) artificial reflectors on single‐axis‐tracked bifacial photovoltaic systems through ray‐trace modeling and field measurements. In the field, we tested a range of reflector configurations by varying reflector size and placement and demonstrated that reflectors increased daily energy yield up to 6.2% relative to natural albedo for PERC modules. To confirm the accuracy of our model, we compared modeled and measured power and found a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.4% on an hourly basis. We modeled a typical meteorological year in Golden, Colorado, to demonstrate the effects of artificial reflectors under a wide range of operating conditions. Seventy percent reflective material can increase total incident irradiance by 1.9%–8.6% and total energy yield by 0.9%–4.5% annually after clipping is considered with a DC–AC ratio of 1.2. Clipping has a significant effect on reflector impact and must be included when assessing reflector viability because it reduces reflector energy gain. We calculated a maximum viable cost for these improvements of up to $2.50–4.60/m 2 , including both material and installation, in Golden. We expanded our analysis to cover a latitude range of 32–48°N and demonstrated that higher‐latitude installations with lower energy yield and higher diffuse irradiance content can support higher reflector costs. In both modeling and field tests, and for all locations, the ideal placement of the reflectors was found to be directly underneath the module due to the optimized rear irradiance increase.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: EnKF System Design and Preliminary Assessment

Abstract Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations collected during the 2018 Lower Atmospheric Process Studies at Elevation—a Remotely Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using an ensemble Kalman filter. The benefit of UAS observations was assessed for a terrain-driven (drainage and upvalley) flow event that occurred within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV) using independent observations. The analysis and prediction of the strength, depth, and horizontal extent of drainage flow from the Saguache Canyon and the subsequent transition to upvalley and up-canyon flow were improved relative to that obtained both without data assimilation (benchmark) and when only surface observations were assimilated. Assimilation of UAS observations greatly improved the analyses of vertical variations in temperature, relative humidity, and winds at multiple locations in the northern portion of the SLV, with reductions in both bias and the root-mean-square error of roughly 40% for each variable relative to the benchmark run. Despite these noted improvements, some biases remain that were tied to measurement error and/or the impact of the boundary layer parameterization on vertically spreading the observations, both of which require further exploration. The results presented here highlight how observations obtained with a fleet of profiling UAS improve limited-area, high-resolution analyses and short-term forecasts in complex terrain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Impacts of Grain-scale Heterogeneity on Mechanical Response

Driven by the exceedingly high computational demands of simulating mechanical response in complex engineered systems with finely resolved finite element models, there is a critical need to optimally reduce the fidelity of such simulations. The minimum required fidelity is constrained by error tolerances on the simulation results, but error bounds are often impossible to obtain a priori. One such source of error is the variability of material properties within a body due to spatially non-uniform processing conditions and inherent stochasticity in material microstructure. This study seeks to quantify the effects of microstructural heterogeneity on component- and system-scale performance to aid in the choice of an appropriate material model and spatial resolution for finite element analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Impact of Glass Irradiation on Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy Data Analysis

Increased absorption of optical materials arising from exposure to ionizing radiation must be accounted for to accurately analyze laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) data retrieved from high-radiation environments. We evaluate this effect on two examples that mimic the diagnostics placed within novel nuclear reactor designs. The analysis is performed on LIBS data measured with 1% Xe gas in an ambient He environment and 1% Eu in a molten LiCl-KCl matrix, along with the measured optical absorption from the gamma- and neutron-irradiated low-OH fused silica and sapphire glasses. Significant changes in the number of laser shots required to reach a 3σ detection level are observed for the Eu data, increasing by two orders of magnitude after exposure to a 1.7 × 1017 n/cm2 neutron fluence. For all cases examined, the spectral dependence of absorption results in the introduction of systematic errors. Moreover, if lines from different spectral regions are used to create Boltzmann plots, this attenuation leads to statistically significant changes in the temperatures calculated from the Xe II lines and Eu II lines, lowering them from 8000 ± 610 K to 6900 ± 810 K and from 15,800 ± 400 K to 7200 ± 800 K, respectively, for exposure to the 1.7 × 1017 n/cm2 fluence. The temperature range required for a 95% confidence interval for the calculated temperature is also broadened. In the case of measuring the Xe spectrum, these effects may be mitigated using only the longer-wavelength spectral region, where radiation attenuation is relatively small, or through analysis using the iterative Saha–Boltzmann method.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Automated Fire Detection for Industrial Settings with Pretrained Convolutional Networks

Early fire detection in industrial environments is critical to preventing equipment damage, personal injury, and operational disruptions. Traditional smoke detectors, while effective, often experience delays due to the time required for smoke to reach sensors, allowing fires to spread. Manual fire watch operations and human surveillance of camera feeds are resource-intensive and prone to human error. To address these challenges, this paper explores the application of convolutional neural networks for automated fire detection, specifically in industrial settings. By leveraging 11 different pre-trained machine vision models from TensorFlow and enhancing them with transfer learning on a custom-built industrial fire dataset, we optimized fire detection performance. Here, we analyzed each machine vision model architecture in terms of its depth, width, and input image resolution, considering both resource requirements and detection accuracy. We further explored the option of combining multiple models into an ensemble classifier to evaluate whether the performance improvements could justify the much greater computational complexity and other practical impacts. A cost-benefit analysis is presented to evaluate the trade-offs between performance and computational expense. Our findings identify that EfficientNetV2L, specifically tailored for industrial applications, provides the optimal balance between costs involved in training and using the model versus the overall fire detection performance. Additionally, we present a qualitative analysis of model performance using the technique of gradient-based class activation mapping to provide explainability by visualizing model decisions.

artificial intelligence↗

Advanced Signal Decomposition Analysis and Anomaly Detection in Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid expansion of large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants, it is paramount for solar stakeholders to understand the reliability and efficiency of their plants to inform maintenance decisions, increase production, and understand the design factors that impact performance. Diagnosing underperformance in PV plants is challenging due to the relatively few monitoring points with respect to the large geographic footprint of the plant. This work introduces a cutting-edge method that transforms the analysis and management of key factors influencing PV plant performance, including performance loss rate (PLR), recoverable soiling, and major system changes. Identifying these factors is critical for deriving actionable insights. Leveraging advanced analytical techniques such as wavelet transformation, robust regression, and extreme point analysis, this approach provides a nuanced understanding of these factors. This method has been tested across two synthetic datasets and one real dataset, consistently surpassing existing benchmarks by achieving a lower median mean absolute error and reduced error variability across all comparable components.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases

Changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models, and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line–by–line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear–sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a re–analysis of present–day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from pre–industrial times to the present–day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m –2 . Six contributing line–by–line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m –2 while even recently–developed parameterizations have typical errors four or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line–by–line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line–by–line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations. Here, the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature change by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest non–linearity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heliostat Consortium: Gap Analysis on Wind Load for Achieving a Fully Competitive Heliostat Industry

The Heliostat Consortium (HelioCon) Wind Load Subtask was initiated with the aim of bringing research work pertaining to wind load measurement, characterization, and prediction taking place across several tasks, including Advanced Manufacturing, Components and Controls, and Field Deployment. The cross-cutting wind load subtopic in the HelioCon roadmap report [1] highlighted standardized methods and tools that are needed for a more detailed understanding of the static and dynamic loads on a heliostat. This will enable cost reduction of wind-dependent heliostat components to avoid unnecessarily conservative, overly constrained designs and increase field efficiency/reliability, to reduce the risk of component failures due to high-wind events (>15 m/s). Gaps related to heliostat wind load include site characterization for wind measurements, critical load cases for heliostat design, turbulence impacts on heliostat tracking error, testing of heliostat array configurations, understanding spatial variation of maximum loads across the solar field, and heliostat field layout and operating strategies. The recommended highest-priority pathway as first steps taken by HelioCon to address these gaps are to develop site characterization guidelines for heliostat design and field load measurements.

Emes, Matthew (ORCID:0000000341474387)↗

Stochastic multiscale modeling for quantifying statistical and model errors with application to composite materials

This paper provides a coherent and efficient computational framework for stochastic multiscale analysis of material systems in the presence of parametric uncertainties and modeling errors. Uncertainty in those model parameters that are not deduced as upscaled quantities is attributed to an uncertainty “germ”. While such parameters can appear at any scale, they are predominant at the finest analysis scale. Additional uncertainties stemming from statistical estimation, attributed to lack of data and model error, are associated with each submodel contributing to the multiscale system. Here, a robust and efficient framework based on a generalized extended polynomial chaos expansion (gEPCE) is proposed to simultaneously propagate all these uncertainties in order to provide a probabilistic representation of specific quantities of interest (QoI). We characterize the full probability distribution of the QoI and the uncertainty in the failure probability pertaining to its tails. By combining gEPCE with kernel density estimation (KDE) and directional derivatives, we construct sensitivity measures that connect these statistical metrics of QoI to the various sources of uncertainty to assess their individual and combined impacts. An illustrative problem featuring three-point bending of a composite beam is investigated to demonstrate the presented approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Habit–Dependent Vapor Growth Modulates Arctic Supercooled Water Occurrence

We present an analysis of long-term data collected at Utqiagvik, Alaska, to explore the impacts of cloud processes on the probability of finding supercooled water given cloud temperature, P(L|T), in the topmost unseeded liquid-bearing layers. P(L|T) has local minima at temperatures around –6°C and –15°C. Simulations using habit-evolving ice microphysics models suggest that these minima are the result of efficient vapor growth by non-isometric habits found at these temperatures. Here, we conclude that habit-dependent vapor growth of ice crystals modulates the macrophysical occurrence of supercooled water in polar clouds, the effect of which should be included in model parametrizations to avoid biases and/or error compensation. Our methodology is adaptable for spherical ice treatments implemented in models (example parametrizations provided), amenable for use with satellite measurements to give global impartial observational targets for model evaluations, and may allow empirical characterization of bulk responses to seeding and possibly secondary ice effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variational AutoEncoders Reveal Intensifying GPP Extremes in Continental United States based on CESM2 Simulations

Climate extremes significantly impact terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics, necessitating robust methods for detecting and analyzing anomalous behavior in plant productivity. This study presents a novel application of variational autoencoders (VAE) for identifying extreme events in gross primary productivity (GPP) from Community Earth System Model version 2 simulations across four AR6 regions in the Continental United States. We compare VAE-based anomaly detection with traditional singular spectral analysis (SSA) methods across three time periods: 1850-80, 1950-80, and 2050-80 under SSP5-8.5 scenario. The VAE architecture employs three dense layers and a latent space with input sequence length of 12 months, training on normalized GPP time series to reconstruct the GPP and identify anomalies based on reconstruction errors. Extreme events are defined using 5th percentile thresholds applied to both VAE and SSA anomalies. Results demonstrate strong regional agreement between VAE and SSA methods in spatial patterns of extreme event frequencies, despite VAE consistently producing higher threshold values (179-756 GgC for VAE vs. 100-784 GgC for SSA across regions and periods). Both methods reveal increasing magnitudes and frequencies of negative carbon cycle extremes toward 2050-80, particularly in Western and Central North America. The VAE approach shows comparable performance to established SSA techniques while offering computational advantages and enhanced capability for capturing non-linear temporal dependencies in carbon cycle variability. This research demonstrates the potential of deep learning approaches for extremes detection and provides a foundation for improved understanding of future carbon cycle risks under future conditions.

Sharma, Bharat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000266982487)↗

Development of an Improved RELAP5-3D Model for the High Temperature Test Facility

High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are rapidly approaching deployment. Confidence in transient analysis of these systems for design, optimization, and licensing calculations requires modeling and simulation tools that have been validated against data relevant to HTGR conditions. The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) is an integral effects thermal hydraulics test facility for prismatic HTGRs. In spring and summer of 2019, HTTF was used for a series of experiments that now serve as the basis for the OECD/NEA Thermal Hydraulic Code Validation Benchmark for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors using HTTF Data (HTGR T/H Benchmark). This benchmark contains problems for systems code, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and coupled systems code/CFD modeling representing lower plenum mixing and both the depressurized and pressurized conduction cooldown (DCC and PCC respectively) transients. Benchmark problems include exercises for code-to-code and code-to-data comparisons as well as an exercise for error scaling between HTTF and the Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor, which serves as the basis for the HTTF design. Previous analysis as part of the HTGR T/H benchmark used a RELAP5-3D model developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and demonstrated an ability to reproduce trends in the measured data but difficulties reproducing experimental values within their uncertainty. These difficulties were largely attributed to assumptions made during the development of the initial RELAP5-3D model, which predated the HTTF experiments. A significant cause of difficulty reproducing the measured temperatures may be the radial nodalization of the previous RELAP5-3D model. The new model provides a finer nodalization to assess the impact of radial nodalization and allows for asymmetric heating within the core, which was a feature of multiple HTTF experiments. In this paper, we present the new RELAP5-3D model of HTTF. In addition to describing the new model, this paper compares the new and old models and provides results for a full-power steady state, a DCC, and a PCC in HTTF. These analyses are based on the code-to-code comparison exercises for the DCC and PCC problems of the HTGR T/H benchmark. We present the results of these exercises from the new model and compare them to the results of the old model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗