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The effects of aberrations (low order and quilting) on the performance of the all-composite design for the Herschel Space Observatory

The effects of specific aberrations on the optical performance of the all-composite design for the Herschel Space Observatory are examined. A review of the all-composite design for the large aperture (3.5 m) telescope that satisfies the target specifications is presented. Cryogenic experiments with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) 2 m demonstration mirror have yielded empirical bounds on the high-and low-order spatial frequency aberrations that will be anticipated in the full 3.5 m Ritchey-Chretien telescope design. Detailed analysis is presented on the effect of the low order aberrations of the primary mirror on the system wavefront error and encircled energy. Predictable limits of correction via low order shaping of the secondary mirror are described. The impact of higher order surface errors on the encircled energy and the stray light will also be presented. Comments are made regarding the impact of the optical prescription and CRFP design on flight telescope testing.

energy↗

Data Assimilation Experiments using Quality Controlled AIRS Version 5 Temperature Soundings

The AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm has been finalized and is now operational at the Goddard DAAC in the processing (and reprocessing) of all AlRS data. Version 5 contains accurate case-by-case error estimates for most derived products, which are also used for quality control. We have conducted forecast impact experiments assimilating AlRS quality controlled temperature profiles using the NASA GEOS-5 data assimilation system, consisting of the NCEP GSI analysis coupled with the NASA FVGCM. Assimilation of quality controlled temperature profiles resulted in significantly improved forecast skill in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere Extra-Tropics, compared to that obtained from analyses obtained when all data used operationally by NCEP except for AlRS data is assimilated. Experiments using different Quality Control thresholds for assimilation of AlRS temperature retrievals showed that a medium quality control threshold performed better than a tighter threshold, which provided better overall sounding accuracy; or a looser threshold, which provided better spatial coverage of accepted soundings. We are conducting more experiments to further optimize this balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy from the data assimilation perspective. In all cases, temperature soundings were assimilated well below cloud level in partially cloudy cases. The positive impact of assimilating AlRS derived atmospheric temperatures all but vanished when only AIRS stratospheric temperatures were assimilated. Forecast skill resulting from assimilation of AlRS radiances uncontaminated by clouds, instead of AlRS temperature soundings, was only slightly better than that resulting from assimilation of only stratospheric AlRS temperatures. This reduction in forecast skill is most likely the result of significant loss of tropospheric information when only AIRS radiances unaffected by clouds are used in the data assimilation process.

Susskind, Joel↗

A Simplified Pattern Match Algorithm for Star Identification

A true pattern matching star algorithm similar in concept to the Van Bezooijen algorithm is implemented using an iterative approach. This approach allows for a more compact and simple implementation which can be easily adapted to be either an all-sky, no a priori algorithm or a follow on to a direct match algorithm to distinguish between ambiguous matches. Some simple analysis is shown to indicate the likelihood of mis-identifications. The performance of the algorithm for the all-sky, no a priori situation is detailed assuming he SKYMAP star catalog describes the true sky. The impact of errors and omissions in the SKYMAP catalog on performance are investigated. In addition, differing levels of noise in the star observations are assumed and results shown. The implications for possible implementation on-board spacecraft are discussed.

Lee, Michael H.↗

CME Velocity and Acceleration Error Estimates Using the Bootstrap Method

The bootstrap method is used to determine errors of basic attributes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) visually identified in images obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission's Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) instruments. The basic parameters of CMEs are stored, among others, in a database known as the SOHO/LASCO CME catalog and are widely employed for many research studies. The basic attributes of CMEs (e.g. velocity and acceleration) are obtained from manually generated height-time plots. The subjective nature of manual measurements introduces random errors that are difficult to quantify. In many studies the impact of such measurement errors is overlooked. In this study we present a new possibility to estimate measurements errors in the basic attributes of CMEs. This approach is a computer-intensive method because it requires repeating the original data analysis procedure several times using replicate datasets. This is also commonly called the bootstrap method in the literature. We show that the bootstrap approach can be used to estimate the errors of the basic attributes of CMEs having moderately large numbers of height-time measurements. The velocity errors are in the vast majority small and depend mostly on the number of height-time points measured for a particular event. In the case of acceleration, the errors are significant, and for more than half of all CMEs, they are larger than the acceleration itself.

Michalek, Grzegorz↗

Optical Analysis of an Ultra-High resolution Two-Mirror Soft X-Ray Microscope

This work has summarized for a Schwarzschild microscope some relationships between numerical aperture (NA), magnification, diameter of the primary mirror, radius of curvature of the secondary mirror, and the total length of the microscope. To achieve resolutions better than a spherical Schwarzschild microscope of 3.3 Lambda for a perfectly aligned and fabricated system. it is necessary to use aspherical surfaces to control higher-order aberrations. For an NA of 0.35, the aspherical Head microscope provides diffraction limited resolution of 1.4 Lambda where the aspherical surfaces differ from the best fit spherical surface by approximately 1 micrometer. However, the angle of incidence varies significantly over the primary and the secondary mirrors, which will require graded multilayer coatings to operate near peak reflectivities. For higher numerical apertures, the variation of the angle of incidence over the secondary mirror surface becomes a serious problem which must be solved before multilayer coatings can be used for this application. Tolerance analysis of the spherical Schwarzschild microscope has shown that water window operations will require 2-3 times tighter tolerances to achieve a similar performance for operations with 130 A radiation. Surface contour errors have been shown to have a significant impact on the MTF and must be controlled to a peak-to-valley variation of 50-100 A and a frequency of 8 periods over the surface of a mirror.

Shealy, David L.↗

Determination of Fiber Volume in Carbon/Cyanate Ester Composites Using Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA)

The resin content, and by extension the fiber volume, of carbon fiber/cyanate ester composite laminates are measured using thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Conventional measurement involves acid digestion of the laminate to determine resin content. The mean difference between techniques is 0.03%. In addition to eliminating the hazards and environmental impact of standard acid digestion, the TGA technique allows quantification of errors associated with fiber volume measurements, e.g. incomplete resin removal or fiber degradation. An additional benefit of the TGA technique is a reduction in sample size requirements, allowing the examination of fiber volume changes in complex shapes.

Sovinski, Marjorie F.↗

The Impact of the Assimilation of Aquarius Sea Surface Salinity Data in the GEOS Ocean Data Assimilation System

Ocean salinity and temperature differences drive thermohaline circulations. These properties also play a key role in the ocean-atmosphere coupling. With the availability of L-band space-borne observations, it becomes possible to provide global scale sea surface salinity (SSS) distribution. This study analyzes globally the along-track (Level 2) Aquarius SSS retrievals obtained using both passive and active L-band observations. Aquarius alongtrack retrieved SSS are assimilated into the ocean data assimilation component of Version 5 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) assimilation and forecast model. We present a methodology to correct the large biases and errors apparent in Version 2.0 of the Aquarius SSS retrieval algorithm and map the observed Aquarius SSS retrieval into the ocean models bulk salinity in the topmost layer. The impact of the assimilation of the corrected SSS on the salinity analysis is evaluated by comparisons with insitu salinity observations from Argo. The results show a significant reduction of the global biases and RMS of observations-minus-forecast differences at in-situ locations. The most striking results are found in the tropics and southern latitudes. Our results highlight the complementary role and problems that arise during the assimilation of salinity information from in-situ (Argo) and space-borne surface (SSS) observations

Salinty↗

Impact of GMI All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in the NASA GEOS Forecast System

The assimilation of cloud- and precipitation-affected ("all-sky") radiances has become an important focus of development at most numerical weather prediction centers. Efforts at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have focused on all-sky assimilation of GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiances, which became operational in the GEOS real-time production system in July 2018. Implementation of the all-sky capability required several upgrades to the GEOS hybrid 4D-EnVar assimilation infrastructure including the addition of control variables for cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain and snow, enhancements to the radiative transfer model, new hybrid background and observational error models, and modified quality control and bias correction procedures. This talk describes the impact of GMI all-sky radiance assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts as determined from examination of various metrics including statistics of background departures and analysis increments, forecast skill scores, and forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) calculations. It is shown that in addition to the hydrometeors themselves, the initial wind, temperature and pressure fields all undergo significant dynamic adjustment in response to the analyzed cloud and precipitation features. Assimilation of GMI radiances leads to improved forecasts of lower tropospheric wind, temperature and humidity, especially in the tropics. The largest forecast improvements occur during the first 48 hours, with diminishing impact thereafter. However, combining GMI all-sky assimilation with improvements to the GEOS model physics as in the recent implementation of the real-time production system, extends these forecast improvements well in to the medium range. FSOI results based on a 24-hr moist global energy norm show that GMI radiances provide nearly uniform beneficial impact throughout the tropics, with more mixed impacts in the subtropics. While the overall impact of GMI is smaller than that of other, much more numerous microwave and hyperspectral infrared radiance types, its impact is among the largest of all radiance types on a per-observation basis.

Gelaro, Ron↗

The Impact of Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles on Short-term Weather Forecasts

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced spacebased atmospheric sounding systems. The combined AlRS/AMSU system provides radiance measurements used to retrieve temperature profiles with an accuracy of 1 K over 1 km layers under both clear and partly cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived humidity profiles is 15% in 2 km layers. Critical to the successful use of AIRS profiles for weather and climate studies is the use of profile quality indicators and error estimates provided with each profile Aside form monitoring changes in Earth's climate, one of the objectives of AIRS is to provide sounding information of sufficient accuracy such that the assimilation of the new observations, especially in data sparse region, will lead to an improvement in weather forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate highresolution AIRS profile data in a regional analysis/forecast model. The paper will focus on the impact of AIRS profiles on a rapidly developing east coast storm and will also discuss preliminary results for a 30-day forecast period, simulating a quasi-operation environment. Temperature and moisture profiles were obtained from the prototype version 5.0 EOS science team retrieval algorithm which includes explicit error information for each profile. The error profile information was used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for every profile location and pressure level for assimilation into the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS). The AIRS-enhanced analyses were used as initial fields for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system used by the SPORT project for regional weather forecast studies. The ADASWRF system will be run on CONUS domain with an emphasis on the east coast. The preliminary assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, intelligent use of the quality indicators, and forecast verification.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗

The Integrated Hazard Analysis Integrator

Hazard analysis addresses hazards that arise in the design, development, manufacturing, construction, facilities, transportation, operations and disposal activities associated with hardware, software, maintenance, operations and environments. An integrated hazard is an event or condition that is caused by or controlled by multiple systems, elements, or subsystems. Integrated hazard analysis (IHA) is especially daunting and ambitious for large, complex systems such as NASA s Constellation program which incorporates program, systems and element components that impact others (International Space Station, public, International Partners, etc.). An appropriate IHA should identify all hazards, causes, controls and verifications used to mitigate the risk of catastrophic loss of crew, vehicle and/or mission. Unfortunately, in the current age of increased technology dependence, there is the tendency to sometimes overlook the necessary and sufficient qualifications of the integrator, that is, the person/team that identifies the parts, analyzes the architectural structure, aligns the analysis with the program plan and then communicates/coordinates with large and small components, each contributing necessary hardware, software and/or information to prevent catastrophic loss. As viewed from both Challenger and Columbia accidents, lack of appropriate communication, management errors and lack of resources dedicated to safety were cited as major contributors to these fatalities. From the accident reports, it would appear that the organizational impact of managers, integrators and safety personnel contributes more significantly to mission success and mission failure than purely technological components. If this is so, then organizations who sincerely desire mission success must put as much effort in selecting managers and integrators as they do when designing the hardware, writing the software code and analyzing competitive proposals. This paper will discuss the necessary and sufficient requirements of one of the significant contributors to mission success, the IHA integrator. Discussions will be provided to describe both the mindset required as well as deleterious assumptions/behaviors to avoid when integrating within a large scale system.

Morris, A. Terry↗

Global Geochemical Variation on the Lunar Surface: A Three-Element Approach

We present a method for displaying the relative abundances of three important elements (Th, Fe, and Ti) on the same map projection of the lunar surface. Using Th-, Fe-, and Ti-elemental abundances from orbital geochemical data and assigning each element a primary color, a false-color map of the lunar surface was created. This approach is similar to the ternary diagram approach presented by Davis and Spudis with some important differences, discussed later. For the present maps, Th abundances were measured by the Lunar Prospector (LP) Gamma-Ray Spectrometer(GRS).The new LPGRS low-altitude dataset was used in this analysis. Iron and Ti weight percentages were based on Clementine spectral reflectance data smoothed to the LP low altitude footprint. This method of presentation was designed to aid in the location and recognition of three principal lunar compositions: ferroan anorthosite (FAN), mare basalts (MB), and the Mg suite/ KREEP-rich rocks on the lunar surface, with special emphasis on the highlands and specific impact basins. In addition to the recognition of these endmember rock compositions, this method is an attempt to examine the relationship between elemental compositions that do not conform readily to previously accepted or observed endmember rocks in various specific regions of interest, including eastern highlands regions centered on 150 deg longitude, and a northern highlands Th-rich region observed. The LP low-altitude data has full width at half-maximum spatial resolution of about 40 km. The Clementine spectral reflectance datasets were adapted using an equal-area, gaussian smoothing routine to this footprint. In addition, these datasets, reported in weight percent of FeO and of Ti02, were adjusted to Fe and Ti weight percentages. Each dataset was then assigned one of the three primary colors: blue for Th, red for Fe, and green for Ti. For each element, the data range was normalized to represent the ratio of each point to the maximum in the dataset. (To view the color table, go to http://cass.jsc.nasa.gov/meetings/moon99/pdf/8033.pdf.) The full range of lunar longitudes is represented, but due to the lack of coverage of the Clementine data for latitudes > 70 deg and <-70 deg, the data for these regions is excluded. The differences between this approach and the ternary diagram approach of Davis and Spudis eliminate some of the uncertainty and ambiguity of the ternary diagram approach. Rather than using a ratio of Th to Ti normalized to CI chondritic ratios, and a ternary diagram with ternary apexes located at specific endmember compositional values, elemental compositions were used independently, eliminating the errors resulting from dividing numbers that can have high uncertainties, especially at low concentration. The three elements used in this method of presentation were chosen for several reasons. One reason for the inclusion of Th in this study is that it is an accurate indicator of KREEP. Iron and Ti concentrations are both low in highland regolith, causing any small fluctuations in Th to stand out very well. In addition, Fe and Ti are good compositional indicators of different mare basalts. Mixed with red for Fe, the green for Ti produces a yellow signal in high-Ti basalts. While universally high in Fe relative to the surrounding highlands, mare basalts have a diverse range of Ti values, making Ti concentration a valuable asset to the classification and identification of different basalt types. Finally, an important constraint in element selection is the availability of the global data, both from LP and Clementine results. Data for Th, Fe, and Ti are among the highest quality of existing lunar remote-sensing data. In addition, LP data for Fe and Ti will become available, enabling these data to be incorporated into the analysis. Using upper-limit values for end member rock compositions calculated from Korotev et al., attempts were made to locate the different endmember compositions of terranes on this diagram. Most strikingly, ferroan anorthosite (Th < and = 0.37 micro g/g; Fe (wt%)< and =2.29; Ti (wt%) < and = 0.22), which should appear as an almost black, reddish color, does not appear on the diagram at any noticeable frequency. Based on this analysis, the suggestion of extensive FAN regions on the lunar surface is not strong, especially at the presently accepted values for Fe and Th. However, to make sure this effect is not due to systematic errors, a thorough investigation of the precision, accuracy, and uncertainties of the Fe, Ti, and Th abundances needs to be carried out, especially at low concentrations. A particular region of interest is an area of high Th concentrations relative to Fe and Ti content north and east of Humboldtianum Crater. First observed by Lawrence et al., this region does not coincide with any visible impact structure and comprises one of the closest approximations to pure blue (high Th, very low Ti and Fe) on the lunar surface. Such an elemental composition does not lend itself readily to classification, and presents something of an anomaly. More detailed analysis of this region is needed to understand its structure and origin. There seems to be a longitudinal asymmetry in the Th concentrations of the highlands regolith. High-Th, low-Ti, and Fe regions are located between 135 deg and 180 deg longitude and between -30 deg and +30 deg latitude. While the Th levels are not high enough to attract attention in a single elemental display, the variation in the abundance of Th relative to Fe and Ti abundances can be clearly seen. The composition that these data suggest is not well represented in the sample return suite. In addition, these regions were largely missed by the Apollo orbital ground tracks, which only covered the outer edge of the areas of interest. The LP orbital Th data represent the first information about the Th concentrations in these regions of the highlands. Additional information contained in original.

Thomsen, D. R.↗

Visible - Near Infrared Spectral Indices for Mapping Mineralogy and Chemistry with OSIRIS-REx

The primary objective of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, SecurityRegolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission is to return to Earth a pristine sample of carbonaceous material from the primitive asteroid (101955) Bennu. To support compositional mapping as part of sample site selection and characterization, we tested 95 spectral parameters on visible to near infrared laboratory reflectance data of minerals and carbonaceous meteorites to find which of these parameters reliably identified spectral features of interest. Most spectral parameters had high positive detection rates when used on spectra of pure, single component materials. The meteorite spectra have fewer and weaker absorption features and, as a result, fewer detections with the spectral parameters. Parameters targeting absorptions at 0.7 and 2.7 – 3 µm, which arise due to hydrated minerals, were most successful for the meteorites. Based on these results, we have identified a set of 17 parameters that are most likely to be useful at Bennu and spectral analogs. These parameters detect olivines, pyroxenes, carbonates, water/OH-bearing minerals, serpentines, ferric minerals, and organics. Particle size and albedo are known to affect band depth but had a negligible impact on parameter accuracy. The effect of instrument-like noise added to the laboratory spectra can result in more false positive detections, but these exhibit large errors. Our study has determined the prioritization of spectral parameters used for OSIRISREx spectral analysis and mapping and informs the reliability of all parameter-derived data products.

Hannah H Kaplan↗

Observing System Simulation Experiments Exploring Potential Spaceborne Deployment Options for a Differential Absorption Radar Measuring Marine Surface Pressures

A new technology for remote measurements of marine surface pressure has been proposed, employing a V-band differential absorption radar and a radiometric temperature sounder to calculate the total column atmospheric mass. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are performed to evaluate the potential impact of Spaceborne Marine Surface Pressure (SMSP) on Numerical Weather Prediction. These experiments build on prior efforts (Privé, McLinden, et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3254), but with an updated version of the OSSE framework and with more sophisticated simulation of the SMSP observations and a longer experiment period. Several different instrument configurations are compared, including both scanning and non-scanning orbits. SMSP impacts are calculated for analysis quality and forecast skill, and a forecast sensitivity observation impact tool is employed to place SMSP observations in context with the global observing network. The effects of rain contamination on observation quality are explored. Different magnitudes of simulated SMSP observation error are tested in the context of data assimilation to show the range of potential behaviors. Overall, SMSP observations are found to be most beneficial in the southern hemisphere extratropics, with statistically significant forecast improvements for the first 72 hr of the forecast. A constellation of four non-scanning SMSP satellites is found to outperform a single scanning instrument with a 250 km wide swath.

N C Prive↗

Sensitivity Studies for Assimilated Ozone Profiles

An ozone data assimilation system at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) produces three-dimensional global ozone fields. They are obtained by assimilating ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line parameterized chemistry and transport model. In this talk we focus on the quality of lower stratospheric assimilated ozone profiles. Ozone in the lower stratosphere plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the lower stratosphere are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. We investigate the sensitivity of assimilated ozone profiles to changes in a variety of system inputs: TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, forecast and observations error covariance models, inclusion or omission of a parameterized chemistry model, and different versions of DAO assimilated wind fields used to drive the transport model. Comparisons of assimilated ozone fields with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Analysis of navigation performance for the Earth Observing System (EOS) using the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS)

Use of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Onboard Navigation System (TONS) was proposed as an alternative to the Global Positioning System (GPS) for supporting the Earth Observing System (EOS) mission. The results are presented of EOS navigation performance evaluation with respect to TONS based orbit, time, and frequency determination (OD/TD/FD). Two TONS modes are considered: one uses scheduled TDRSS forward link service to derive one way Doppler tracking data for OD/FD support (TONS-I); the other uses an unscheduled navigation beacon service (proposed for Advanced TDRSS) to obtain pseudorange and Doppler data for OD/TD/FD support (TONS-II). Key objectives of the analysis were to evaluate nominal performance and potential sensitivities, such as suboptimal tracking geometry, tracking contact scheduling, and modeling parameter selection. OD/TD/FD performance predictions are presented based on covariance and simulation analyses. EOS navigation scenarios and the contributions of principal error sources impacting performance are also described. The results indicate that a TONS mode can be configured to meet current and proposed EOS position accuracy requirements of 100 and 50 m, respectively.

Elrod, B.↗

The GEMPAK Barnes interactive objective map analysis scheme

The analysis scheme and meteorological applications of the GEMPAK data analysis and display software system developed by NASA are described. The program was devised to permit objective, versatile, and practical analysis of satellite meteorological data using a minicomputer and a display system with graphics capability. A data area can be selected within the data file for the globe, and data-sparse regions can be avoided. Distances between observations and the nearest observation points are calculated in order to avoid errors when determining synoptic weather conditions. The Barnes (1973) successive correction method is employed to restore the amplitude of small yet resolvable wavelengths suppressed in an initial filtering pass. The rms deviation is then calculated in relation to available measured data. Examples are provided of treatment of VISSR data from the GOES satellite and a study of the impact of incorrect cloud height data on synoptic weather field analysis.

Koch, S. E.↗

The Role of Computational Fluid Dynamics at Marshall Space Flight Center

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is the Center of Excellence for Space Propulsion Technology within NASA. One of MSFC's goals is to lower the cost of access to space. MSFC's Fluid Dynamics Division, a part of the Structures and Dynamics Lab, assists in accomplishing this goal. This division is divided into two branches: experimental and analytical, whose work is complimentary and integrated. In the analysis branch, the emphasis is to apply, rather than develop computational fluid dynamics (CFD), to reduce the cost of design and development of: (1) pump and turbine feedlines and feed manifolds; (2) all primary and secondary flow paths in pumps; (3) all primary and secondary flow paths in turbines; (4) combustion chambers; (5) rocket engine nozzles and plumes; and (6) launch vehicles ascent. The broad range of applications imposes unique constraints on the software. The use of CFD in evaluating rocket engine hardware, specifically, is of value due to several reasons: (1) Rocket engine hardware is extremely expensive to build and test; (2) high engineering and development cost is due to limited production; (3) the cost of one engine test is greater than the average yearly hardware and software cost; (4) CFD represents a relatively small investment relative to the impact it has on the engine development; and (5) computing costs are continuously decreasing. In terms of accuracy the predictable error is more useful than the inconsistent accuracy. The achievable accuracy varies from application to application. The lack of accuracy is often caused by improper analyses: such as improperly applied or located boundary conditions, or attempting steady analysis of unsteady flows. This report is in viewgraph format.

Garcia, Roberto↗

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning: Summary report

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This summary report discusses the results of each of the four major tasks of the study. Task 1 compared airline flight plans based on operational forecasts to plans based on the verifying analyses and found that average fuel savings of 1.2 to 2.5 percent are possible with improved forecasts. Task 2 consisted of similar comparisons but used a model developed for the FAA by SRI International that simulated the impact of ATc diversions on the flight plans. While parts of Task 2 confirm the Task I findings, inconsistency with other data and the known impact of ATC suggests that other Task 2 findings are the result of errors in the model. Task 3 compares segment weather data from operational flight plans with the weather actually observed by the aircraft and finds the average error could result in fuel burn penalties (or savings) of up to 3.6 percent for the average 8747 flight. In Task 4 an in-depth analysis of the weather forecast for the 33 days included in the study finds that significant errors exist on 15 days. Wind speeds in the area of maximum winds are underestimated by 20 to 50 kts., a finding confirmed in the other three tasks.

Keitz, J. F.↗