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DOE OSTI2023

Fluctuations in heavy ion collisions and global conservation effects

Subensemble is a type of statistical ensemble which is the generalization of grand canonical and canonical ensembles. The subensemble acceptance method (SAM) provides general formulas to correct the cumulants of distributions in heavy-ion collisions for the global conservation of all QCD charges. The method is applicable for an arbitrary equation of state and sufficiently large systems, such as those created in central collisions of heavy ions. The new fluctuation measures insensitive to global conservation effects are presented. The main results are illustrated in the hadron resonance gas and van der Waals fluid frameworks.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Antarctic ice sheet model comparison with uncurated geological constraints shows that higher spatial resolution improves deglacial reconstructions

Accurately reconstructing past changes to the shape and volume of the Antarctic ice sheet relies on the use of physically based and thus internally consistent ice sheet modeling, benchmarked against spatially limited geologic data. The challenge in model benchmarking against geologic data is diagnosing whether model-data misfits are the result of an inadequate model, inherently noisy or biased geologic data, and/or incorrect association between modeled quantities and geologic observations. In this work we address this challenge by (i) the development and use of a new model-data evaluation framework applied to an uncurated data set of geologic constraints, and (ii) nested high-spatial-resolution modeling designed to test the hypothesis that model resolution is an important limitation in matching geologic data. While previous approaches to model benchmarking employed highly curated datasets, our approach applies an automated screening and quality control algorithm to an uncurated public dataset of geochronological observations (specifically, cosmogenic-nuclide exposure-age measurements from glacial deposits in ice-free areas). This optimizes data utilization by including more geological constraints, reduces potential interpretive bias, and allows unsupervised assimilation of new data as they are collected. We also incorporate a nested model framework in which high-resolution domains are downscaled from a continent-wide ice sheet model. We highlight the application of this framework by applying these methods to a small ensemble of deglacial ice-sheet model simulations, and demonstrate that the nested approach improves the ability of model simulations to match exposure age data collected from areas of complex topography and ice flow. We develop a range of diagnostic model-data comparison metrics to provide more insight into model performance than possible from a single-valued misfit statistic, showing that different metrics capture different aspects of ice sheet deflation.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Ensemble Score Filter for Tracking High-Dimensional Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

We propose an ensemble score filter (EnSF) for solving high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems with superior accuracy. A major drawback of existing filtering methods, e.g., particle filters or ensemble Kalman filters, is the low accuracy in handling high-dimensional and highly nonlinear problems. EnSF attacks this challenge by exploiting the score-based diffusion model, defined in a pseudo-temporal domain, to characterizing the evolution of the filtering density. EnSF stores the information of the recursively updated filtering density function in the score function, in stead of storing the information in a set of finite Monte Carlo samples (used in particle filters and ensemble Kalman filters). Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to approximate the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation that uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to directly approximate the score function at any pseudo-spatial-temporal location, which provides sufficient accuracy in solving high-dimensional nonlinear problems as well as saves tremendous amount of time spent on training neural networks. Another essential aspect of EnSF is its analytical update step, gradually incorporating data information into the score function, which is crucial in mitigating the degeneracy issue faced when dealing with very high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems. High-dimensional Lorenz systems are used to demonstrate the performance of our method. EnSF provides surprisingly impressive performance in reliably tracking extremely high-dimensional Lorenz systems (up to 1,000,000 dimension) with highly nonlinear observation processes, which is a well-known challenging problem for existing filtering methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Random matrix theory of the isospectral twirling

We present a systematic construction of probes into the dynamics of isospectral ensembles of Hamiltonians by the notion of Isospectral twirling, expanding the scopes and methods of ref. [1]. The relevant ensembles of Hamiltonians are those defined by salient spectral probability distributions. The Gaussian Unitary Ensembles (GUE) describes a class of quantum chaotic Hamiltonians, while spectra corresponding to the Poisson and Gaussian Diagonal Ensemble (GDE) describe non chaotic, integrable dynamics. We compute the Isospectral twirling of several classes of important quantities in the analysis of quantum many-body systems: Frame potentials, Loschmidt Echos, OTOCs, Entanglement, Tripartite mutual information, coherence, distance to equilibrium states, work in quantum batteries and extension to CP-maps. Moreover, we perform averages in these ensembles by random matrix theory and show how these quantities clearly separate chaotic quantum dynamics from non chaotic ones.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamical tuning of the chemical potential to achieve a target particle number in grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations

We present a method to facilitate Monte Carlo simulations in the grand canonical ensemble given a target mean particle number. The method imposes a fictitious dynamics on the chemical potential, to be run concurrently with the Monte Carlo sampling of the physical system. Corrections to the chemical potential are made according to time-averaged estimates of the mean and variance of the particle number, with the latter being proportional to thermodynamic compressibility. Here, we perform a variety of tests, and in all cases find rapid convergence of the chemical potential—inexactness of the tuning algorithm contributes only a minor part of the total measurement error for realistic simulations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Magnetic Field Reconstruction for a Realistic Multi-Point, Multi-Scale Spacecraft Observatory

Future in situ space plasma investigations will likely involve spatially distributed observatories comprised of multiple spacecraft, beyond the four and five spacecraft configurations currently in operation. Inferring the magnetic field structure across the observatory, and not simply at the observation points, is a necessary step towards characterizing fundamental plasma processes using these unique multi-point, multi-scale data sets. We propose improvements upon the classic first-order reconstruction method, as well as a second-order method, utilizing magnetometer measurements from a realistic nine-spacecraft observatory. The improved first-order method, which averages over select ensembles of four spacecraft, reconstructs the magnetic field associated with simple current sheets and numerical simulations of turbulence accurately over larger volumes compared to second-order methods or first-order methods using a single regular tetrahedron. Using this averaging method on data sets with fewer than nine measurement points, the volume of accurate reconstruction compared to a known magnetic vector field improves approximately linearly with the number of measurement points.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Classical field approximation of ultralight dark matter: Quantum break times, corrections, and decoherence

The classical field approximation is widely used to better understand the predictions of ultralight dark matter. Here, in this work, we use the truncated Wigner approximation method to test the classical field approximation of ultralight dark matter. This method approximates a quantum state as an ensemble of independently evolving realizations drawn from its Wigner function. The method is highly parallelizable and allows the direct simulation of quantum corrections and decoherence times in systems many times larger than have been previously studied in reference to ultralight dark matter. Our study involves simulation of systems in 1, 2, and 3 spatial dimensions. We simulate three systems, the condensation of a Gaussian random field in three spatial dimensions, a stable collapsed object in three spatial dimensions, and the merging of two stable objects in two spatial dimensions. We study the quantum corrections to the classical field theory in each case. We find that quantum corrections grow exponentially during nonlinear growth with the timescale being approximately equal to the system dynamical time. In stable systems the corrections grow quadratically. We also find that the primary effect of quantum corrections is to reduce the amplitude of fluctuations on the de Broglie scale in the spatial density. Finally, we find that the timescale associated with decoherence due to gravitational coupling to baryonic matter is at least as fast as the quantum corrections due to gravitational interactions. These results are consistent with the predictions of the classical field theory being accurate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Structural characterization of an intrinsically disordered protein complex using integrated small-angle neutron scattering and computing

Characterizing structural ensembles of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) and intrinsically disordered regions (IDRs) of proteins is essential for studying structure–function relationships. Due to the different neutron scattering lengths of hydrogen and deuterium, selective labeling and contrast matching in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) becomes an effective tool to study dynamic structures of disordered systems. However, experimental timescales typically capture measurements averaged over multiple conformations, leaving complex SANS data for disentanglement. We hereby demonstrate an integrated method to elucidate the structural ensemble of a complex formed by two IDRs. We use data from both full contrast and contrast matching with residue-specific deuterium labeling SANS experiments, microsecond all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with four molecular mechanics force fields, and an autoencoder-based deep learning (DL) algorithm. From our combined approach, we show that selective deuteration provides additional information that helps characterize structural ensembles. We find that among the four force fields, a99SB-disp and CHARMM36m show the strongest agreement with SANS and NMR experiments. In addition, our DL algorithm not only complements conventional structural analysis methods but also successfully differentiates NMR and MD structures which are indistinguishable on the free energy surface. Finally, we present an ensemble that describes experimental SANS and NMR data better than MD ensembles generated by one single force field and reveal three clusters of distinct conformations. Our results demonstrate a new integrated approach for characterizing structural ensembles of IDPs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonlinear Ensemble Filtering with Diffusion Models: Application to the Surface Quasigeostrophic Dynamics

The intersection between classical data assimilation methods and novel machine learning techniques has attracted significant interest in recent years. Here, we explore another promising solution in which diffusion models are used to formulate a robust nonlinear ensemble filter for sequential data assimilation. Unlike standard machine learning methods, the proposed ensemble score filter (EnSF) is completely training free and can efficiently generate a set of analysis ensemble members. Here, in this study, we apply the EnSF to a surface quasigeostrophic model and compare its performance against the popular local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which makes Gaussian assumptions in the analysis step. Numerical tests demonstrate that EnSF maintains stable performance in the absence of localization and for a variety of experimental settings. We find that while LETKF maintains optimal performance in the case of linear observations of the entire state and a perfect model, EnSF shows improvements over LETKF when nonlinear observations are assimilated and the system is subject to unexpected model errors. A spectral decomposition of the analysis results in this nonlinear observation regime shows that the largest improvements over LETKF occur at large scales (small wavenumbers), where LETKF lacks sufficient ensemble spread. Overall, this initial application of EnSF to a geophysical model of intermediate complexity motivates further development of the algorithm for more realistic problems.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2023

SQMBox: Interfacing a semiempirical integral library to modular ab initio electronic structure enables new semiempirical methods

Ab initio and semiempirical electronic structure methods are usually implemented in separate software packages or use entirely different code paths. As a result, it can be time-consuming to transfer an established ab initio electronic structure scheme to a semiempirical Hamiltonian. Here we present an approach to unify ab initio and semiempirical electronic structure code paths based on a separation of the wavefunction ansatz and the needed matrix representations of operators. With this separation, the Hamiltonian can refer to either an ab initio or semiempirical treatment of the resulting integrals. We built a semiempirical integral library and interfaced it to the GPU-accelerated electronic structure code TeraChem. Equivalency between ab initio and semiempirical tight-binding Hamiltonian terms is assigned according to their dependence on the one-electron density matrix. The new library provides semiempirical equivalents of the Hamiltonian matrix and gradient intermediates, corresponding to those provided by the ab initio integral library. This enables the straightforward combination of semiempirical Hamiltonians with the full pre-existing ground and excited state functionality of the ab initio electronic structure code. We demonstrate the capability of this approach by combining the extended tight-binding method GFN1-xTB with both spin-restricted ensemble-referenced Kohn–Sham and complete active space methods. We also present a highly efficient GPU implementation of the semiempirical Mulliken-approximated Fock exchange. The additional computational cost for this term becomes negligible even on consumer-grade GPUs, enabling Mulliken-approximated exchange in tight-binding methods for essentially no additional cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Avatar Tools

Supervised machine learning is the process of using past experience to predict the future. "Ensembles" are a machine-learning meta-method that can be applied to most machine learning algorithms. Ensembles generally greatly improve accuracy, reduce or remove most of the design issues presented by machine learning, and are admirably suited to parallel and distributed computation. The Avatar Tools codes are an implementation of ensembles specifically for decision trees. Some features that distinguish Avatar Tools from other "ensembles for decision trees" codes are: (1) Does the bookkeeping necessary for out of bag (OOB) validation. (2) Can use OOB validation to automatically determine optimal ensemble size. (3) Provides an MPI-based parallel implementation, for distributed operation. (4) Provides convenient tools for cross-validation, to assess the accuracy provided by a training set. SAND2020-3858 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Siefert, Christopher↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inference of Rock Flow and Mechanical Properties from Injection-Induced Microseismic Events During Geologic CO 2 Storage

Monitoring microseismic activities during CO 2 injection into geologic formations is important for ensuring the safety of the storage operations. The resulting data provide insight into the response of the storage formation to CO 2 injection and can be used to infer the underlying rock flow and mechanical properties. In this paper, assimilation of microseismic data is performed for dynamic characterization of the storage formation by using a stochastic simulation model to forecast the microseismic response of a geologic formation during CO 2 injection. Two modeling approaches are adopted to predict the space-time distribution of the injection-induced microseismicity. The first model is based on pore pressure relaxation assumption, while the second model uses coupled flow and geomechanics simulation to establish the complex physical relation between the storage formation properties and the corresponding microseismic responses during CO 2 injection. The stochastic predictive models in each case are used in ensemble data assimilation frameworks to estimate rock properties from the observed microseismic data. Two data assimilation methods are considered: (i) a new ensemble-based stochastic point process filter (EnPPF) that can directly integrate discrete microseismic events, and (ii) a variant of ensemble smoother, known as the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), which requires continuous representation of microseismic events for assimilation. The two methods are successfully applied to a geologically realistic model of the Farnsworth Field in Texas, with complex geologic flow units and interacting fault systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Colloidal quantum dots for optoelectronics

Colloidal quantum dots (QDs) are semiconductor nanocrystals that have unique size-tunable optoelectronic properties and are suitable for wet processing. QD research aims to answer fundamental questions about the chemical and physical properties of nanoscale materials and use these tools for technological applications ranging from bio-imaging to quantum optics. At the core of this field is a set of synthetic, processing and analytical methods designed to produce QDs in uniform ensembles that meet the highest performance standards. Here, this Primer reviews QD fabrication methods with a focus on the applications of QDs in printed optoelectronics and quantum optics. After outlining the current state-of-the-art QD syntheses, the experimental and computational analysis of QDs is discussed. These topics are then connected to the methodologies, processes and concepts required for developing QD-based photodetectors, light-emitting devices and quantum optics applications. Special attention is paid to challenges in reproducibility and current limitations of the field, such as the need to balance non-restricted material composition with high performing technology while achieving long-term stability in QD devices under operating conditions. Finally, the ongoing advancement in QD synthesis, precise atomic-level analysis and computational methodologies are highlighted as key drivers towards rational QD design, particularly in understanding how structural changes under loading impact QD properties.

optical materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

Boosting efficiency and reducing graph reliance: Basis adaptation integration in Bayesian multi-fidelity networks

The computational cost of high-fidelity numerical models makes outer-loop analysis, which requires repeated interrogation of the model such as uncertainty quantification, computationally demanding. Multi-fidelity methods, which construct a surrogate model using data from an ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy, can substantially reduce the cost of outer-loop analysis. However, these methods can be difficult to apply when the model ensemble does not admit a clear hierarchy a priori and the correlations between models are low. Consequently, in this paper, we present a multi-fidelity method that leverages dimension reduction to enhance the correlation between models, thereby reducing the amount of data needed to train a surrogate from an unordered ensemble of models. Our method utilizes basis adaptation to build low-dimensional polynomial chaos expansions of each model and employs Multi-fidelity Networks to encode the relationships among models. We show that the resulting method exhibit two notable advantages over its counterpart: (1) enhanced accuracy (both reduced bias and variance); and (2) reduced dependency on the graph structure encoding relationships among models. We demonstrate the approach on an analytical test problem and a challenging finite element model for a spent nuclear fuel. Our method produces a surrogate model that is significantly more accurate than either a single-fidelity surrogate or a multi-fidelity surrogate constructed without basis adaptation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Ensemble voting-based fault classification and location identification for a distribution system with microgrids using smart meter measurements

This study presents an ensemble learning approach for fault classification and location identification in a smart distribution network containing photovoltaics (PV)-based microgrid. Lack of available data points and the unbalanced nature of the distribution system make fault handling a challenging task for utilities. The proposed method uses event-driven voltage data from smart meters to classify and locate faults. The ensemble voting classifier is composed of three base learners; random forest, k-nearest neighbours, and artificial neural network. The fault location (FL) task has been formulated as a classification problem where the fault type is classified in the first step and based on the fault type, the faulty bus is identified. The method is tested on IEEE-123 bus system modified with added PV-based microgrid along with dynamic loading conditions and varying fault resistances from 0 to 20 Ω for both unbalanced and balanced fault types. A further sensitivity analysis has been done to test the robustness of the proposed method under various noise levels and data loss errors in the smart meter measurements. The ensemble method shows improved performance and robustness compared to some previously proposed FL methods. Finally, the proposed method has been experimentally validated on a real-time simulation-based testbed using a state-of-the-art digital real-time simulator, industry standard DNP3 communication protocol and a cpu-based control centre running the FL algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Finite temperature auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo in the canonical ensemble

Finite temperature auxiliary field-based quantum Monte Carlo methods, including determinant quantum Monte Carlo and Auxiliary Field Quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC), have historically assumed pivotal roles in the investigation of the finite temperature phase diagrams of a wide variety of multidimensional lattice models and materials. Despite their utility, however, these techniques are typically formulated in the grand canonical ensemble, which makes them difficult to apply to condensates such as superfluids and difficult to benchmark against alternative methods that are formulated in the canonical ensemble. Working in the grand canonical ensemble is furthermore accompanied by the increased overhead associated with having to determine the chemical potentials that produce desired fillings. Given this backdrop, in this work, we present a new recursive approach for performing AFQMC simulations in the canonical ensemble that does not require knowledge of chemical potentials. To derive this approach, we exploit the convenient fact that AFQMC solves the many-body problem by decoupling many-body propagators into integrals over one-body problems to which non-interacting theories can be applied. We benchmark the accuracy of our technique on illustrative Bose and Fermi–Hubbard models and demonstrate that it can converge more quickly to the ground state than grand canonical AFQMC simulations. We believe that our novel use of HS-transformed operators to implement algorithms originally derived for non-interacting systems will motivate the development of a variety of other methods and anticipate that our technique will enable direct performance comparisons against other many-body approaches formulated in the canonical ensemble.

Shen, Tong (ORCID:0000000206292468)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗