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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning curves for drug response prediction in cancer cell lines

Motivated by the size and availability of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating drug response data, a common question is whether the generalization performance of existing prediction models can be further improved with more training data. We utilize empirical learning curves for evaluating and comparing the data scaling properties of two neural networks (NNs) and two gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models trained on four cell line drug screening datasets. The learning curves are accurately fitted to a power law model, providing a framework for assessing the data scaling behavior of these models. The curves demonstrate that no single model dominates in terms of prediction performance across all datasets and training sizes, thus suggesting that the actual shape of these curves depends on the unique pair of an ML model and a dataset. The multi-input NN (mNN), in which gene expressions of cancer cells and molecular drug descriptors are input into separate subnetworks, outperforms a single-input NN (sNN), where the cell and drug features are concatenated for the input layer. In contrast, a GBDT with hyperparameter tuning exhibits superior performance as compared with both NNs at the lower range of training set sizes for two of the tested datasets, whereas the mNN consistently performs better at the higher range of training sizes. Moreover, the trajectory of the curves suggests that increasing the sample size is expected to further improve prediction scores of both NNs. These observations demonstrate the benefit of using learning curves to evaluate prediction models, providing a broader perspective on the overall data scaling characteristics. A fitted power law learning curve provides a forward-looking metric for analyzing prediction performance and can serve as a co-design tool to guide experimental biologists and computational scientists in the design of future experiments in prospective research studies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing high-fidelity neural network potentials through low-fidelity sampling

The efficacy of neural network potentials (NNPs) critically depends on the quality of the configurational datasets used for training. Prior research using empirical potentials has shown that well-selected liquid–solid transitional configurations of a metallic system can be translated to other metallic systems. This study demonstrates that such validated configurations can be relabeled using density functional theory (DFT) calculations, thereby enhancing the development of high-fidelity NNPs. Training strategies and sampling approaches are efficiently assessed using empirical potentials and subsequently relabeled via DFT in a highly parallelized fashion for high-fidelity NNP training. Our results reveal that relying solely on energy and force for NNP training is inadequate to prevent overfitting, highlighting the necessity of incorporating stress terms into the loss functions. To optimize training involving force and stress terms, we propose employing transfer learning to fine-tune the weights, ensuring that the potential surface is smooth for these quantities composed of energy derivatives. This approach markedly improves the accuracy of elastic constants derived from simulations in both empirical potential-based NNPs and relabeled DFT-based NNPs. Overall, this study offers significant insights into leveraging empirical potentials to expedite the development of reliable and robust NNPs at the DFT level.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

APOGEE Net: Improving the Derived Spectral Parameters for Young Stars through Deep Learning

Machine learning allows for efficient extraction of physical properties from stellar spectra that have been obtained by large surveys. The viability of machine-learning approaches has been demonstrated for spectra covering a variety of wavelengths and spectral resolutions, but most often for main-sequence (MS) or evolved stars, where reliable synthetic spectra provide labels and data for training. Spectral models of young stellar objects (YSOs) and low-mass MS stars are less well-matched to their empirical counterparts, however, posing barriers to previous approaches to classify spectra of such stars. In this work, we generate labels for YSOs and low-mass MS stars through their photometry. We then use these labels to train a deep convolutional neural network to predict logg, T {sub eff}, and Fe/H for stars with Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) spectra in the DR14 data set. This “APOGEE Net” has produced reliable predictions of logg for YSOs, with uncertainties of within 0.1 dex and a good agreement with the structure indicated by pre-MS evolutionary tracks, and it correlates well with independently derived stellar radii. These values will be useful for studying pre-MS stellar populations to accurately diagnose membership and ages.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Based Process Control for Injection Molding of Recycled Polypropylene

The increased interest in artificial intelligence in manufacturing has driven the adoption of machine learning to optimize processes and improve efficiency. A key challenge in injection molding is the variability of recycled materials, which affects part quality and processing stability. This study presents a novel closed-loop process control approach for injection molding, leveraging machine learning to adaptively predict processing inputs and quality outcomes. The methodology was tested on five blends of recycled polypropylene (rPP), using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression, and polynomial regression to model the relationships between material properties and process parameters. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and testing sets. The ANN model was implemented using TensorFlow and Keras, with six hidden layers of 32 neurons per layer, ReLU activation, and an Adam optimizer. Empirical tuning and early stopping were used to optimize performance and prevent overfitting. Predictions were evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and percentage error. The results showed that yield stress, ultimate elongation, and part weight were accurately predicted within a 5% error for linear and polynomial regression models and within a 10% error for the ANN. However, modulus predictions were less reliable, with errors of ~11% for ANN and linear regression and ~40% for polynomial regression, reflecting the inherent variability of this property in rPP blends. Predictions of processing inputs had errors ranging from 3% to 25%, depending on the model and response variable. No single modeling approach was consistently superior across all responses, highlighting the complexity of the relationship between material properties, process parameters, and quality metrics. Overall, the work demonstrates that closed-loop process control, powered by machine learning, can effectively predict key quality parameters in injection molding of recycled materials. The proposed approach can improve process stability and material utilization, facilitating increased adoption of sustainable materials.

Krantz, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-head physics-informed neural networks for learning functional priors and uncertainty quantification

In numerous applications, the integration of prior knowledge and historical information is essential, particularly for tasks requiring the solution of ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs) in data-sparse or noisy environments. For instance, achieving accurate solutions to time-dependent PDEs with limited initial condition measurements necessitates an effective strategy for embedding prior knowledge. Hard-parameter sharing architectures in neural networks (NNs) have demonstrated success in both traditional and scientific machine learning domains, facilitating the learning of informative representations. Here, in this study, we introduce a novel, yet efficient, method to enhance physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) by incorporating a multi-head structure that enables the learning of functional priors from both empirical data and governing physical laws. This prior information can then be used to address data sparsity and high-level noise in solving ODE/PDE problems with uncertainty quantification (UQ). The approach, termed Multi-Head PINN (MH-PINN), consists of a shared body NN and multiple head NNs, each corresponding to an individual PINN instance. Our framework for functional prior learning is carried out in two stages: (1) training the MH-PINNs to develop a shared body NN alongside multiple head NNs, and (2) employing these trained head NNs to estimate a prior distribution through a normalizing flow-based density estimator. The learned functional prior can then be applied as a regularization mechanism in deterministic contexts or as an informative prior within a Bayesian inference framework, aiding in the resolution of subsequent ODE/PDE tasks. We evaluate the efficacy of MH-PINNs across five benchmark problems, including a high-dimensional parametric PDE, all characterized by data sparsity or substantial noise levels. Our findings reveal that MH-PINNs deliver accurate solutions and robust UQ, demonstrating adaptability across a range of complex and challenging scenarios.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental study of the S 38 excited level scheme

Information on the 38 S level scheme was expanded through experimental work utilizing a fusion-evaporation reaction and in-beam γ-ray spectroscopy. Prompt γ-ray transitions were detected by the Gamma-Ray Energy Tracking Array (GRETINA) and recoiling 38 S residues were selected by the Fragment Mass Analyzer (FMA). Tools based on machine-learning techniques were developed and deployed for the first time in order to enhance the unique selection of 38S residues and identify any associated γ-ray transitions. The new level information, including the extension of the even-spin yrast sequence through J π =8( + ), was interpreted in terms of a basic single-particle picture as well shell-model calculations which incorporated the empirically derived FSU interaction. A comparison between the properties of the yrast states in the even-Z, N = 22 isotones from Z = 14 to 20, and for 36 Si– 38 S in particular, was also presented with an emphasis on the role and influence of the neutron 1 p 3/2 orbital on the structure in the region.

20 ≤ A ≤ 38↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stability Constants of Lanthanide-nitrate Complexes in Aqueous Solutions: A Theoretical Study

Calculating stability constants for lanthanide--nitrate complexes in aqueous solution is challenging due to the complex free-energy landscapes of the participating species. In this work, we compare cluster-continuum solvation and condensed-phase approaches using universal machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) for determining the stability constants of lanthanide--nitrate complexes in aqueous solutions. Within the cluster--continuum solvation framework at the B3LYP level of theory, reactions involving lanthanide coordination numbers of both 8 and 9 are found to be relevant. After an empirical linear free-energy correction, the cluster--continuum results fall on the same order-of-magnitude scale as the experimental stability constants. By contrast, MACE-MP0 MLIP underestimates lanthanide hydration numbers and gives PMF-derived stability constants with large deviations from experiment, whereas MACE-MATPES-R2SCAN improves both hydration structure and the stability-constant scale but still does not quantitatively reproduce the detailed lanthanide trend. Across both approaches, nitrate binding is best viewed as a labile coordination motif rather than a fixed mono- or bidentate structure, with hydration-shell structure influencing which configurations are favored. Overall, the cluster--continuum calculations provide a practical semi-quantitative baseline for the experimental stability-constant scale, while the explicit-solvent MLIP benchmarks show clear progress from MACE-MP0 to MACE-MATPES-r2SCAN but also highlight the need for lanthanide-targeted training, fine-tuning, or improved long-range and polarization treatments to obtain predictive thermodynamics for complex aqueous lanthanide chemistry.

Dinpajooh, Mohammadhasan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning and Controlling Silicon Dopant Transitions in Graphene Using Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy

A machine learning approach is introduced to determine the transition dynamics of silicon atoms on a single layer of carbon atoms, when stimulated by the electron beam of a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM). This method is data-centric, leveraging data collected on a STEM. The data samples are processed and filtered to produce symbolic representations, which is used to train a neural network to predict transition probabilities. These learned transition dynamics are then leveraged to guide a single silicon atom throughout the lattice to pre-determined target destinations. Empirical analyses are presented that demonstrate the efficacy and generality of the approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Speeding up and reducing memory usage for scientific machine learning via mixed precision

Scientific machine learning (SciML) has emerged as a versatile approach to address complex computational science and engineering problems. Within this field, physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) stand out as the leading techniques for solving partial differential equations by incorporating both physical equations and experimental data. However, training PINNs and DeepONets require significant computational resources, including long computational times and large amounts of memory. In search of computational efficiency, training neural networks using half precision (float16) rather than the conventional single (float32) or double (float64) precision has gained substantial interest, given the inherent benefits of reduced computational time and memory consumed. However, we find that float16 cannot be applied to SciML methods, because of gradient divergence at the start of training, weight updates going to zero, and the inability to converge to a local minima. To overcome these limitations, we explore mixed precision, which is an approach that combines the float16 and float32 numerical formats to reduce memory usage and increase computational speed. Our experiments showcase that mixed precision training not only substantially decreases training times and memory demands but also maintains model accuracy. Here, we also reinforce our empirical observations with a theoretical analysis. The research has broad implications for SciML in various computational applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Criticality analysis of nuclear binding energy neural networks

Machine learning methods, in particular deep learning methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) with many layers, have become widespread and useful tools in nuclear physics. However, these ANNs are typically treated as ‘black boxes’, with their architecture (width, depth, and weight/bias initialization) and the training algorithm and parameters chosen empirically by optimizing learning based on limited exploration. We test a non-empirical approach to understanding and optimizing nuclear physics ANNs by adapting a criticality analysis based on renormalization group flows in terms of the hyperparameters for weight/bias initialization, training rates, and the ratio of depth to width. This treatment utilizes the statistical properties of neural network initialization to find a generating functional for network outputs at any layer, allowing for a path integral formulation of the ANN outputs as a Euclidean statistical field theory. We use a prototypical example to test the applicability of this approach: a simple ANN for nuclear binding energies. We find that with training using a stochastic gradient descent optimizer, the predicted criticality behavior is realized, and optimal performance is found with critical tuning. However, the use of an adaptive learning algorithm leads to somewhat superior results without concern for tuning and thus obscures the analysis. Nevertheless, the criticality analysis offers a way to look within the black box of ANNs, which is a first step towards potential improvements in network performance beyond using adaptive optimizers.

artificial neural network↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measure Utility, Gain Trust: Practical Advice for XAI Researchers

Research into explanation of machine learning models, i.e. explainable AI (XAI), has seen a sympathetic exponential growth alongside deep artificial neural networks throughout the past decade. For historical reasons explanation and trust have been intertwined. However this focus on trust is too narrow, and has led the research community astray from tried and true empirical methods that lead to more defensible scientific knowledge about people and explanations. To address this, we contribute a practical path forward for researchers in the XAI field. We recommend researchers focus on the utility and impact of their explanations instead of trust. We outline five broad use cases where explanations are useful and, for each, we describe pseudo-experiments that rely on objective empirical measurements and falsifiable hypotheses. We believe that this experimental rigor is necessary to contribute to scientific knowledge in the field of XAI.

Davis, Brittany F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid machine learning/physics-based approach for predicting oxide glass-forming ability

Predicting the liquid compositions that will vitrify at experimentally accessible quench rates remains one of the grand challenges in the field of condensed matter physics. This glass-forming ability can be quantified as the critical quench rate needed to suppress crystallization. Knowledge of this critical quench rate also informs which glass composition could be used for new applications. There have been several physical and empirical models presented in the literature to predict the critical quench rate/glass forming ability. These models range from those theoretically derived to those quantified only through experimental characterization. In this work, we instead propose a new method to calculate the critical quench rate using the recently developed toy landscape model combined with machine learning. The toy landscape model accesses the underlying physics that control the vitrification behavior by directly simulating the liquid thermodynamics and kinetics. In conclusion, the results are discussed in terms of industrial impact, physical insights, and how the glass science community can develop improved predictions of glass-forming ability.

Crystallization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need?

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. We will elucidate the differences in the basic concepts of UQ of physics-based models and data-driven ML models. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties, including Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian Processes and conformal prediction. Lastly, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

pvOps: a Python package for empirical analysis of photovoltaic field data

The purpose of pvOps is to support empirical evaluations of data collected in the field related to the operations and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) power plants. pvOps presently contains modules that address the diversity of field data, including text-based maintenance logs, current-voltage (IV) curves, and timeseries of production information. The package functions leverage machine learning, visualization, and other techniques to enable cleaning, processing, and fusion of these datasets. These capabilities are intended to facilitate easier evaluation of field patterns and extraction of relevant insights to support reliability-related decision-making for PV sites. The open-source code, examples, and instructions for installing the package through PyPI can be accessed through the GitHub repository.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Exploratory Approach Using Regression and Machine Learning in the Analysis of Mass Absorption Cross Section of Black Carbon Aerosols: Model Development and Evaluation

Mass absorption cross-section of black carbon (MAC BC ) describes the absorptive cross-section per unit mass of black carbon, and is, thus, an essential parameter to estimate the radiative forcing of black carbon. Many studies have sought to estimate MAC BC from a theoretical perspective, but these studies require the knowledge of a set of aerosol properties, which are difficult and/or labor-intensive to measure. We therefore investigate the ability of seven data analytical approaches (including different multivariate regressions, support vector machine, and neural networks) in predicting MAC BC for both ambient and biomass burning measurements. Our model utilizes multi-wavelength light absorption and scattering as well as the aerosol size distributions as input variables to predict MAC BC across different wavelengths. We assessed the applicability of the proposed approaches in estimating MAC BC using different statistical metrics (such as coefficient of determination (R 2 ), mean square error (MSE), fractional error, and fractional bias). Overall, the approaches used in this study can estimate MAC BC appropriately, but the prediction performance varies across approaches and atmospheric environments. Based on an uncertainty evaluation of our models and the empirical and theoretical approaches to predict MAC BC , we preliminarily put forth support vector machine (SVM) as a recommended data analytical technique for use. We provide an operational tool built with the approaches presented in this paper to facilitate this procedure for future users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning thermodynamically constrained equations of state with uncertainty

Numerical simulations of high energy-density experiments require equation of state (EOS) models that relate a material’s thermodynamic state variables—specifically pressure, volume/density, energy, and temperature. EOS models are typically constructed using a semi-empirical parametric methodology, which assumes a physics-informed functional form with many tunable parameters calibrated using experimental/simulation data. Since there are inherent uncertainties in the calibration data (parametric uncertainty) and the assumed functional EOS form (model uncertainty), it is essential to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve confidence in EOS predictions. Model uncertainty is challenging for UQ studies since it requires exploring the space of all possible physically consistent functional forms. Thus, it is often neglected in favor of parametric uncertainty, which is easier to quantify without violating thermodynamic laws. This work presents a data-driven machine learning approach to constructing EOS models that naturally captures model uncertainty while satisfying the necessary thermodynamic consistency and stability constraints. We propose a novel framework based on physics-informed Gaussian process regression (GPR) that automatically captures total uncertainty in the EOS and can be jointly trained on both simulation and experimental data sources. A GPR model for the shock Hugoniot is derived, and its uncertainties are quantified using the proposed framework. We apply the proposed model to learn the EOS for the diamond solid state of carbon using both density functional theory data and experimental shock Hugoniot data to train the model and show that the prediction uncertainty is reduced by considering thermodynamic constraints.

Sharma, Himanshu (ORCID:000900050235718X)↗