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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian GAN-Based False Data Injection Attack Detection in Active Distribution Grids With DERs

Advancements in information and communication technologies have revolutionized monitoring and control capabilities within smart grids. However, it also brings new vulnerabilities to data acquisition systems and state estimation functions, which attackers can subtly tamper with the measurement data through compromising the communication network. Moreover, the high penetration of renewable energy sources with the inherited characteristics of uncertainty and variability further complicates the design of effective intrusion detection systems. In this paper, a Bayesian deep learning-based approach is developed to detect cyber attacks and maintain the security of smart grids. Our method specifically addresses the prevalent issue of imbalanced data in real power systems, which arises from the predominance of normal system operations over compromised or attacked states. Employing a novel Bayesian GAN-based technique, our approach successfully discriminates between secure and compromised measurement data, even in scenarios with significant data imbalance. Furthermore, the proposed method accommodates various practical application factors, ensuring accurate intrusion detection despite the presence of measurement noise. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed detection mechanism are validated by testing on IEEE 13-node and 123-node test systems. Simulation results and comparisons with literature methods demonstrate the superiority of proposed cybersecurity solutions.

Bayesian GAN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neutron-neutron scattering length from the 6 He(p,pα)nn reaction

We propose a novel method to measure the neutron-neutron scattering length using the 6 He(p,pα)nn reaction in inverse kinematics at high energies. The method is based on the final-state interaction (FSI) between the neutrons after the sudden knockout of the α particle. We show that the details of the neutron-neutron relative-energy distribution allow for a precise extraction of the s-wave scattering length. Here, we present the state of the art in regard to the theory of this distribution. The distribution is calculated in two steps. First, we calculate the ground-state wave function of 6 He as a αnn three-body system. For this purpose we use Halo effective field theory, which also provides uncertainty estimates for the results. We compare our results at this stage to model calculations done with the computer code face. In a second step we determine the effects of the nn FSI using the nn t-matrix. We compare these FSI results to approximate FSI approaches based on standard FSI enhancement factors. While the final distribution is sensitive to the nn scattering length, it depends only weakly on the effective range. Throughout we emphasize the impact of theoretical uncertainties on the neutron-neutron relative-energy distribution, and discuss the extent to which those uncertainties limit the extraction of the neutron-neutron scattering length from the reaction 6 He(p,pα)nn.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph-based Simulation Framework for Power Resilience Estimation and Enhancement

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for assessing and enhancing the resilience of power distribution networks under such conditions. Resilience is estimated through Monte Carlo simulations, which simulate extreme weather scenarios and evaluate the impact on infrastructure fragility. Due to the proprietary nature of power network topology, a distribution network is synthesized using publicly available data. To generate the weather scenarios, an extreme weather generation method is developed. To enhance resilience, renewable resources such as solar panels and energy storage systems (batteries in this study) are incorporated. A customized Genetic Algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal locations and capacities for solar panels and battery installations, maximizing resilience while balancing cost constraints. Experiment results demonstrate that on a large-scale synthetic distribution network with more than 300,000 nodes and 300,000 edges, the proposed framework can efficiently evaluate the resilience, and enhance the resilience through the installations of distributed energy resources (DERs), providing utilities with valuable insights for community-level power system resilience estimation and enhancement.

Wang, Xuesong [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fault isolation and fault-tolerant control for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy time-varying delay stochastic distribution systems

A fault isolation, estimation, and fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme for nonlinear time-varying delay stochastic distribution control systems was presented in this paper. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model was adopted to approach the nonlinear dynamics of time-varying delay systems. According to the output equivalence principle and Laplace transformation, an augmented state vector was given to solve the time-varying delay problem. When multiple actuator faults and interference occur simultaneously, fault detection, isolation and fault estimation was designed to obtained the fault information. To decouple faults and obtain the value and location information of the fault, the system was separated into two parts through the designed multiple conversion matrices, in which one subsystem was only affected by one actuator fault. This has simplified the design of fault isolation and estimation. A adaptive observer for fault estimation was given. Then, fault information such as the time, location, and size was determined. The observer gain matrices were calculated using linear matrix inequality (LMI). When a fault was detected and diagnosed, a FTC algorithm was devised using the proportional-integral control scheme to compensate the fault as much as possible. It has been shown that even if multiple faults actuator occurred simultaneously, the FTC controller still ensured the output probability density function of the system traced the desired probability density function when a fault occurred. Finally, the expected results were obtained through the simulation example, which confirmed the effectiveness of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Examination of nucleon distribution with Bayesian imaging for isobar collisions

Relativistic collision of isobaric systems is found to be valuable in differentiating the nucleon distributions for nuclei with the same mass number. In recent contrast experiment of $^{96}_{44}$Ru + $^{96}_{44}$Ru versus $^{96}_{40}$Zr + $^{96}_{40}$Zr collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV, the ratios of multiplicity distribution, elliptic flow, triangular flow, and radial flow are precisely measured and found to be significantly different from unity, indicating the difference in the shapes of the isobar pair. Here, in this work, we investigate the feasibility of nuclear structure reconstruction from heavy-ion collision observables. We perform Bayesian Inference with employing the Monte-Carlo Glauber model as an estimator of the mapping from nuclear structure to the final state observables and to provide the mock data for reconstruction. By varying combination of observables included in the mock data, we find it plausible to infer Woods–Saxon parameters from the observables. We also observe that single-system multiplicity distribution for the isobar system, rather than their ratio, is crucial to simultaneously determine the nuclear structure for the isobar system.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1976

Analytical study of the optimum geometric configuration of a space shuttle materials laboratory

A steady state, collisionless flow analysis was made of the density distribution within a hemisphere-disc system due to independent, uniformly distributed internal gas sources. The model was used to estimate the density within a molecular shield, deployed from the shuttle orbiter, which contained internal experiments having a prescribed gas source. Contour plots of the density distribution within the system were presented for disc-to-hemisphere radius ratios of .1, .3, .5, .7, and for disc-to-hemisphere surface emission flux density ratios of .01, 1, 100. The hemisphere-disc system was compared to the empty hemisphere, and it was found that if the disc emission flux density was the same as the hemisphere and the disc radius was not greater than 1/3 of the hemisphere radius, the increase in density at the center of the hemisphere-disc system was less than 50%.

Clay, F. P., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Structural Time Series for Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Disaggregation: Preprint

Distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation often occurs ``behind the meter": a grid operator can only observe the net load, which is the sum of the gross load and distributed PV generation. This lack of observability poses a challenge to system operation at both bulk level and distribution level. The lack of real-time or near-future disaggregated estimates of gross load and PV generation will lead to over scheduling of energy production and regulation reserves, reliability constraints violations, wear and tear of controller devices, and potentially cascading failures of a system. In this paper we propose the use of a Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with local solar irradiance measurements to disaggregate the summed PV generation and gross load signals at a downstream measurement site. BSTSs are a highly expressive model class that blends classic time series models with the powerful Bayesian state space estimation framework. Disaggregation is done probabilistically, which automatically quantifies the uncertainties of the estimated PV generation and gross load consumption. Depending on the data availability in real-time, it can be used to disaggragate PV and gross load at customer site, or can be used at the feeder level. In this paper, we focus on solving the problem at feeder level. We compare the performance of a BSTS model as well as a handful of state-of-the-art methods on a Pecan Street AMI dataset, using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to estimate local irradiance.

Bayesian structural time series↗

NASA NTRS2020

Integrated Demand Management: The FCA Balancing Algorithm

The Collaborative Trajectory Options Program (CTOP) is a new NextGen function that resides within the FAA’s Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) software. CTOP was designed to be used in the United States’ national airspace to control the distribution of air traffic demand, both temporally and geographically, through a set of Flow Constrained Areas (FCAs). Each FCA is assigned capacity values that represent an estimated upper limit of manageable demand, and CTOP controls to that capacity by using Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT) air traffic control clearances, and/or rerouting flights to an alternate FCA or out of the CTOP completely. CTOP’s decisions about which control options best meet system and user needs are based on the Trajectory Options Set (TOS) submitted by airline operators for each flight. The FCA Balancing Algorithm (FBA) described in this document is a proposed decision support capability that generates CTOP capacity entries for FCAs controlling traffic to a common downstream constraint. The FBA provides an equitable distribution of impact, and addresses the added complexity of assigning FCA capacity values for this specific type of use case, greatly simplifying the FAA air traffic manager’s task.

IDM↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control for T-S fuzzy stochastic distribution systems subject to sensor and actuator faults

The problem of fault diagnosis (FD) and fault tolerant control (FTC) for a class of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy stochastic distribution control (SDC) systems subject to sensor and actuator faults is discussed in this paper. First, fuzzy logic models are used to approximate the output probability density function (PDF). Next, an adaptive augmented state/fault diagnosis observer is proposed to estimate the system state, sensor and the actuator faults simultaneously. New expected weights based on the sensor fault estimation information and a PI-type fuzzy feedback fault tolerant (FT) controller are designed to compensate the effect of sensor fault and actuator fault simultaneously. When the sensor fault occurs, the expected objective is redesigned to compensate the sensor fault. Meanwhile, the PI controller can compensate the effect of actuator fault, and the output PDF of the system can still track the desired PDF after the fault occurs. Finally, an example of quality distribution control in chemical reaction process is given to confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Comparison of Filter-based Approaches for Model-based Prognostics

Model-based prognostics approaches use domain knowledge about a system and its failure modes through the use of physics-based models. Model-based prognosis is generally divided into two sequential problems: a joint state-parameter estimation problem, in which, using the model, the health of a system or component is determined based on the observations; and a prediction problem, in which, using the model, the stateparameter distribution is simulated forward in time to compute end of life and remaining useful life. The first problem is typically solved through the use of a state observer, or filter. The choice of filter depends on the assumptions that may be made about the system, and on the desired algorithm performance. In this paper, we review three separate filters for the solution to the first problem: the Daum filter, an exact nonlinear filter; the unscented Kalman filter, which approximates nonlinearities through the use of a deterministic sampling method known as the unscented transform; and the particle filter, which approximates the state distribution using a finite set of discrete, weighted samples, called particles. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we conduct a number of simulation-based experiments investigating the performance of the different algorithms as applied to prognostics.

prognostics↗

NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties with a Single-Moment Mircophysics Scheme

Single-moment microphysics schemes are utilized in an increasing number of applications and are widely available within numerical modeling packages, often executed in near real-time to aid in the issuance of weather forecasts and advisories. In order to simulate cloud microphysical and precipitation processes, a number of assumptions are made within these schemes. Snow crystals are often assumed to be spherical and of uniform density, and their size distribution intercept may be fixed to simplify calculation of the remaining parameters. Recently, the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO Validation Project (C3VP) provided aircraft observations of snow crystal size distributions and environmental state variables, sampling widespread snowfall associated with a passing extratropical cyclone on 22 January 2007. Aircraft instrumentation was supplemented by comparable surface estimations and sampling by two radars: the C-band, dual-polarimetric radar in King City, Ontario and the NASA CloudSat 94 GHz Cloud Profiling Radar. As radar systems respond to both hydrometeor mass and size distribution, they provide value when assessing the accuracy of cloud characteristics as simulated by a forecast model. However, simulation of the 94 GHz radar signal requires special attention, as radar backscatter is sensitive to the assumed crystal shape. Observations obtained during the 22 January 2007 event are used to validate assumptions of density and size distribution within the NASA Goddard six-class single-moment microphysics scheme. Two high resolution forecasts are performed on a 9-3-1 km grid, with C3VP-based alternative parameterizations incorporated and examined for improvement. In order to apply the CloudSat 94 GHz radar to model validation, the single scattering characteristics of various crystal types are used and demonstrate that the assumption of Mie spheres is insufficient for representing CloudSat reflectivity derived from winter precipitation. Furthermore, snow density and size distribution characteristics are allowed to vary with height, based upon direct aircraft estimates obtained from C3VP data. These combinations improve the representation of modeled clouds versus their radar-observed counterparts, based on profiles and vertical distributions of reflectivity. These meteorological events are commonplace within the mid-latitude cold season and present a challenge to operational forecasters. This study focuses on one event, likely representative of others during the winter season, and aims to improve the representation of snow for use in future operational forecasts.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Discovering causal structure with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space ε -machines

We merge computational mechanics’ definition of causal states (predictively equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely applicable method that infers causal structure directly from observations of a system’s behaviors whether they are over discrete or continuous events or time. A structural representation—a finite- or infinite-state kernel ϵ-machine—is extracted by a reduced-dimension transform that gives an efficient representation of causal states and their topology. In this way, the system dynamics are represented by a stochastic (ordinary or partial) differential equation that acts on causal states. We introduce an algorithm to estimate the associated evolution operator. Paralleling the Fokker–Planck equation, it efficiently evolves causal-state distributions and makes predictions in the original data space via an RKHS functional mapping. We demonstrate these techniques, together with their predictive abilities, on discrete-time, discrete-value infinite Markov-order processes generated by finite-state hidden Markov models with (i) finite or (ii) uncountably infinite causal states and (iii) continuous-time, continuous-value processes generated by thermally driven chaotic flows. The method robustly estimates causal structure in the presence of varying external and measurement noise levels and for very high-dimensional data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1977

Effect of experiments on the density distribution in a molecular shield

A steady-state, collisionless flow analysis has been made of the density distribution within a hemisphere-disk system due to independent, uniformly distributed internal gas sources. The model may be used to estimate the density within a molecular shield, deployed from the Shuttle Orbiter, which contains internal experiments having a prescribed gas source. Contour plots of the density distribution within the system are presented for disk-to-hemisphere radius ratios of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7, and for disk-to-hemisphere surface emission flux density ratios of 0.01, 1, and 100. The hemisphere-disk system is compared to the empty hemisphere and it is found that if the disk emission flux density is the same as the hemisphere and the disk radius is not greater than one-third of the hemisphere radius, the increase in density at the center of the hemisphere-disk system is less than 50%.

Hueser, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Closed-form solution of decomposable stochastic models

Markov and semi-Markov processes are increasingly being used in the modeling of complex reconfigurable systems (fault tolerant computers). The estimation of the reliability (or some measure of performance) of the system reduces to solving the process for its state probabilities. Such a model may exhibit numerous states and complicated transition distributions, contributing to an expensive and numerically delicate solution procedure. Thus, when a system exhibits a decomposition property, either structurally (autonomous subsystems), or behaviorally (component failure versus reconfiguration), it is desirable to exploit this decomposition in the reliability calculation. In interesting cases there can be failure states which arise from non-failure states of the subsystems. Equations are presented which allow the computation of failure probabilities of the total (combined) model without requiring a complete solution of the combined model. This material is presented within the context of closed-form functional representation of probabilities as utilized in the Symbolic Hierarchical Automated Reliability and Performance Evaluator (SHARPE) tool. The techniques adopted enable one to compute such probability functions for a much wider class of systems at a reduced computational cost. Several examples show how the method is used, especially in enhancing the versatility of the SHARPE tool.

Sjogren, Jon A.↗

NASA NTRS1989

An active optimal control strategy of rotor vibrations using external forces

An active control strategy for lateral rotor vibrations using external forces is proposed. An extended state observer is used to reconstruct the full states and the unbalance distribution. An optimal controller which accommodates persistent unbalance excitation is derived with feedback of estimated states and unbalances. Numerical simulations were conducted for two separate four degree of freedom rotor systems. These simulations indicated that the proposed strategy can achieve almost complete vibration cancellation. This was shown to be true even when the number of external control forces was less than the system order so long as coordinate coupling was present. Both steady state and transient response at a constant speed are presented.

Zhu, W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Colloidal State Machines as Smart Tracers for Chemical Reactor Analysis

A widely utilized tool in reactor analysis is passive tracers that report the residence time distribution, allowing estimation of the conversion and other properties of the system. Recently, advances in microrobotics have introduced powered and functional entities with sizes comparable to some traditional tracers. This has motivated the concept of Smart Tracers that could record the local chemical concentrations, temperature, or other conditions as they progress through reactors. Herein, the design constraints and advantages of Smart Tracers by simulating their operation in a laminar flow reactor model conducting chemical reactions of various orders are analyzed. It is noted that far fewer particles are necessary to completely map even the most complex concentration gradients compared with their conventional counterparts. Design criteria explored herein include sampling frequency, memory storage capacity, and ensemble number necessary to achieve the required accuracy to inform a reactor model. Cases of severe particle diffusion and sensor noise appear to bind the functional upper limit of such probes and require consideration for future design. The results of the study provide a starting framework for applying the new technology of microrobotics to the broad and impactful set of problems classified as chemical reactor analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1986

On compactness of admissible parameter sets: Convergence and stability in inverse problems for distributed parameter systems

A series of numerical examples is reported and several algorithms compared for estimation of coefficients in differential equation models. Unconstrained, constrained and Tikhonov regularization methods are tested for their behavior with regard to both convergence (of approximation methods for the states and parameters) and stability (continuity of the estimates with respect to perturbations in the data or observed states).

Banks, H. T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Symmetric-asymmetric collision comparison: Disentangling nuclear structure and subnucleonic structure effects for small system flow

Previous flow measurements in small collision systems were mostly based on highly asymmetric collisions (p+Pb, p+Au, d+Au, 3 He+Au), where both nuclear structure and subnucleonic fluctuations are important. Comparing these asymmetric systems with the newly available symmetric 16 O+ 16 O collisions at RHIC and LHC provides a unique opportunity to disentangle these two contributions. Using Glauber models incorporating both nucleon and quark-level substructure, we analyze multiplicity distributions and initial-state estimators: eccentricities ε n for anisotropic flow ν n and inverse transverse size d ⟂ for radial flow. We find that subnucleonic fluctuations impact O+O collisions differently from asymmetric systems, creating specific patterns in flow observables that enable disentangling the competing contributions. Such experimental comparisons will reduce uncertainties in the initial conditions and improve our understanding of the properties of the QGP-like medium produced in small systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗