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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

Decision Support Systems for Launch and Range Operations Using Jess

The virtual test bed for launch and range operations developed at NASA Ames Research Center consists of various independent expert systems advising on weather effects, toxic gas dispersions and human health risk assessment during space-flight operations. An individual dedicated server supports each expert system and the master system gather information from the dedicated servers to support the launch decision-making process. Since the test bed is based on the web system, reducing network traffic and optimizing the knowledge base is critical to its success of real-time or near real-time operations. Jess, a fast rule engine and powerful scripting environment developed at Sandia National Laboratory has been adopted to build the expert systems providing robustness and scalability. Jess also supports XML representation of knowledge base with forward and backward chaining inference mechanism. Facts added - to working memory during run-time operations facilitates analyses of multiple scenarios. Knowledge base can be distributed with one inference engine performing the inference process. This paper discusses details of the knowledge base and inference engine using Jess for a launch and range virtual test bed.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferences of hot electron preheat and its spatial distribution in OMEGA direct drive implosions

Hot electrons generated from laser plasma instabilities degrade performance of direct drive implosions by preheating the deuterium and tritium (DT) fuel resulting in early decompression and lower areal densities at stagnation. A technique to quantify the hot electron preheat of the dense DT fuel and connect it to the degradation in areal density is described in detail. Hot electrons are measured primarily from the hard x-rays they emit as they slow down in the target. The DT preheat is inferred from a comparison of the hard x-ray signals between a DT-layered implosion and its mass equivalent ablator only implosion. The preheat energy spatial distribution within the imploding shell is inferred from experiments using high Z payloads of varying thicknesses. It is found that the electrons deposit their energy uniformly throughout the shell material. For typical direct-drive OMEGA implosions driven with an overlapped intensity of ∼9·1014 W/cm2, approximately ∼0.02%–0.03% of the laser energy is converted into preheat of the stagnated fuel which corresponds to areal density degradations of 10%–20%. The degradations in areal density explain some of the observed discrepancies between the simulated and measured areal densities.

Christopherson, A. R. (ORCID:000000033578635X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulation-Based Inference for Neutrino Interaction Model Tuning

This project demonstrates, for the first time, the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques to tune neutrino–nucleus interaction models. Using a mock dataset based on the MicroBooNE tuning of the GENIE event generator, our approach employs a Neural Posterior Estimator (NPE) with Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF) to infer the posterior distributions of key GENIE parameters directly from simulated histograms. The workflow provides a scalable and amortized framework for performing likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional parameter spaces, offering a pathway to more efficient and uncertainty-aware model tuning for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE and SBND.

Tame-Narvaez, KarlaMaria [Fermi National Accelerat↗
DOE OSTI2023

The mass distribution of quasars in optical time-domain surveys

The determination of supermassive black hole (SMBH) masses is the key to understanding the host galaxy build-up and the SMBH mass assembly histories. The SMBH masses of non-local quasars are frequently estimated via the single-epoch virial black-hole mass estimators, which may suffer from significant biases. Here we demonstrate a new approach to infer the mass distribution of SMBHs in quasars by modelling quasar ultraviolet /optical variability. Here, our inferred black hole masses are systematically smaller than the virial ones by 0.3–0.6 dex; the ∼0.3 dex offsets are roughly consistent with the expected biases of the virial black-hole mass estimators. In the upcoming time-domain astronomy era, our methodology can be used to constrain the cosmic evolution of quasar mass distributions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

A massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)is used to assimilate temperature data from the TOGA/TAO array and altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON into a Pacific basin version of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. The EnKF is an approximate Kalman filter in which the error-covariance propagation step is modeled by the integration of multiple instances of a numerical model. An estimate of the true error covariances is then inferred from the distribution of the ensemble of model state vectors. This inplementation of the filter takes advantage of the inherent parallelism in the EnKF algorithm by running all the model instances concurrently. The Kalman filter update step also occurs in parallel by having each processor process the observations that occur in the region of physical space for which it is responsible. The massively parallel data assimilation system is validated by withholding some of the data and then quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The distributions of the forecast and analysis error covariances predicted by the ENKF are also examined.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark matter density profiles in dwarf galaxies: linking Jeans modelling systematics and observation

ABSTRACT The distribution of dark matter in dwarf galaxies can have important implications on our understanding of galaxy formation as well as the particle physics properties of dark matter. However, accurately characterizing the dark matter content of dwarf galaxies is challenging due to limited data and complex dynamics that are difficult to accurately model. In this paper, we apply spherical Jeans modelling to simulated stellar kinematic data of spherical, isotropic dwarf galaxies with the goal of identifying the future observational directions that can improve the accuracy of the inferred dark matter distributions in the Milky Way dwarf galaxies. We explore how the dark matter inference is affected by the location and number of observed stars as well as the line-of-sight velocity measurement errors. We use mock observation to demonstrate the difficulty in constraining the inner core/cusp of the dark matter distribution with data sets of fewer than 10 000 stars. We also demonstrate the need for additional measurements to make robust estimates of the expected dark matter annihilation signal strength. For the purpose of deriving robust indirect detection constraints, we identify Ursa Major II, Ursa Minor, and Draco as the systems that would most benefit from additional stars being observed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Pantheon+ Analysis: Forward Modeling the Dust and Intrinsic Color Distributions of Type Ia Supernovae, and Quantifying Their Impact on Cosmological Inferences

Abstract Recent studies have shown that the observed color distributions of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be well described by a combination of a dust distribution and an intrinsic color distribution. Using the Pantheon+ sample of 1701 SN Ia, we apply a new forward-modeling fitting method (Dust2Dust) to measure the parent dust and color distributions, including their dependence on host-galaxy mass. At each fit step, the SN Ia selection efficiency is determined from a large simulated sample that is reweighted to reflect the proposed distributions. We use five separate metrics to describe the goodness of fit: distribution of fitted light-curve color c , cosmological residual trends with c , cosmological residual scatter with c , fitted color–luminosity relationship β SALT2 , and intrinsic scatter σ int . We present the results and the uncertainty in 12-dimensional space. Furthermore, we measure that the uncertainty on this modeling propagates to an upper threshold uncertainty in the equation of state of dark energy w of 0.014(1) for the Pantheon+ cosmology analysis and contributes negligible uncertainty to the Hubble constant H 0 . The Dust2Dust code is made publicly available at https://github.com/djbrout/dustdriver .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring Type II-P Supernova Progenitor Masses from Plateau Luminosities

Abstract Connecting observations of core-collapse supernova explosions to the properties of their massive star progenitors is a long-sought, and challenging, goal of supernova science. Recently, Barker et al. presented bolometric light curves for a landscape of progenitors from spherically symmetric neutrino-driven core-collapse supernova (CCSN) simulations using an effective model. They find a tight relationship between the plateau luminosity of the Type II-P CCSN light curve and the terminal iron-core mass of the progenitor. Remarkably, this allows us to constrain progenitor properties with photometry alone. We analyze a large observational sample of Type II-P CCSN light curves and estimate a distribution of iron-core masses using the relationship of Barker et al. The inferred distribution matches extremely well with the distribution of iron-core masses from stellar evolutionary models and namely, contains high-mass iron cores that suggest contributions from very massive progenitors in the observational data. We use this distribution of iron-core masses to infer minimum and maximum masses of progenitors in the observational data. Using Bayesian inference methods to locate optimal initial mass function parameters, we find M min = 9.8 − 0.27 + 0.37 and M max = 24.0 − 1.9 + 3.9 solar masses for the observational data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Latitudinal distribution of solar-wind speed from magnetic observations of the sun

Empirical studies suggest a close relationship between the solar-wind speed near the earth and the magnetic structure of the solar corona. The correlation can be used to infer the latitudinal distribution of wind speed at different phases of the sunspot cycle, and to identify the sources of fast, high-latitude wind streams such as those that might be encountered by the Ulysses spacecraft on its journey toward the solar poles during 1992-1995.

Wang, Y.-M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A differentiable simulation package for performing inference of synchrotron-radiation-based diagnostics

The direction of particle accelerator development is ever-increasing beam quality, currents and repetition rates. This poses a challenge to traditional diagnostics that directly intercept the beam due to the mutual destruction of both the beam and the diagnostic. An alternative approach is to infer beam parameters non-invasively from the synchrotron radiation emitted in bending magnets. However, inferring the beam distribution from a measured radiation pattern is a complex and computationally expensive task. To address this challenge we present SYRIPY ( SYnchrotron Radiation In PYthon ), a software package intended as a tool for performing inference of synchrotron-radiation-based diagnostics. SYRIPY has been developed using PyTorch , which makes it both differentiable and able to leverage the high performance of GPUs, two vital characteristics for performing statistical inference. The package consists of three modules: a particle tracker, Lienard–Wiechert solver and Fourier optics propagator, allowing start-to-end simulation of synchrotron radiation detection to be carried out. SYRIPY has been benchmarked against SRW , the prevalent numerical package in the field, showing good agreement and up to a 50× speed improvement. Finally, we have demonstrated how SYRIPY can be used to perform Bayesian inference of beam parameters using stochastic variational inference.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Toward a Global Map of Raindrop Size Distributions: Rain-Type Classification and Its Implications for Validating Global Rainfall Products - Part 1

Variability in the global distribution of precipitation is recognized as a key element in assessing the impact of climate change for life on earth. The response of precipitation to climate forcings is, however, poorly understood because of discrepancies in the magnitude and sign of climatic trends in satellite-based rainfall estimates. Quantifying and ultimately removing these biases is critical for studying the response of the hydrologic cycle to climate change. In addition, estimates of random errors owing to variability in algorithm assumptions on local spatial and temporal scales are critical for establishing how strongly their products should be weighted in data assimilation or model validation applications and for assigning a level of confidence to climate trends diagnosed from the data. This paper explores the potential for refining assumed drop size distributions (DSDs) in global radar rainfall algorithms by establishing a link between satellite observables and information gleaned from regional validation experiments where polarimetric radar, Doppler radar, and disdrometer measurements can be used to infer raindrop size distributions. By virtue of the limited information available in the satellite retrieval framework, the current method deviates from approaches adopted in the ground-based radar community that attempt to relate microphysical processes and resultant DSDs to local meteorological conditions. Instead, the technique exploits the fact that different microphysical pathways for rainfall production are likely to lead to differences in both the DSD of the resulting raindrops and the three-dimensional structure of associated radar reflectivity profiles. Objective rain-type classification based on the complete three-dimensional structure of observed reflectivity profiles is found to partially mitigate random and systematic errors in DSDs implied by differential reflectivity measurements. In particular, it is shown that vertical and horizontal reflectivity structure obtained from spaceborne radar can be used to reproduce significant differences in Z(sub dr) between the easterly and westerly climate regimes observed in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (TRMM-LBA) field experiment as well as the even larger differences between Amazonian rainfall and that observed in eastern Colorado. As such, the technique offers a potential methodology for placing locally observed DSD information into a global framework.

L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sequential Bayesian inference of transition rates in the hidden Markov model for multi-state system degradation

The more easily available system performance data and advances in data analytics have provided us with opportunities to optimize maintenance programs for engineered systems, for example nuclear power plants. One key task in maintenance optimization is to obtain an accurate model for system degradation. Here, in this research, we propose a Bayesian method to address this problem. Noting that systems usually exhibit multiple states and that the actual state of a system usually is not directly observable, in the method we first model the system degradation process and the observation process based on a hidden Markov model. Then we develop a sequential Bayesian inference algorithm based on importance sampling and the forward algorithm to infer the posterior distributions of the transition rates in the hidden Markov model based on available observations. The proposed Bayesian method allows us to take advantage of evidence from multiple sources, and also allows us to perform Bayesian inference sequentially, without the need to use the entire history of observations every time new observations are collected. We demonstrate the proposed method using both synthetic data for a nuclear power plant feedwater pump and realistic data for a nuclear power plant chemistry analytical device.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dimensional Reduction for Sampled Priors and Application to Photometric Redshift Distributions

A typical Bayesian inference on the values of some parameters of interest q from some data D involves running a Markov Chain (MC) to sample from the posterior $p$($q$,$n$|$D$) $\propto$ $\mathcal{L}$($D$|$q$,$n$)$p$(q)$p$($n$), where n are some nuisance parameters with a separable prior. In some cases, the nuisance parameters are high-dimensional, and their prior p(n) is itself defined only by a set of samples that have been drawn from some other MC. The MC for the posterior will typically require evaluation of p(n) at arbitrary values of n, i.e., one needs to provide a density estimator over the full n space from the provided samples. But the high dimensionality of n hinders both the density estimation and the efficiency of the MC for the posterior. We describe a solution to this problem: a linear compression of the n space into a much lower-dimensional space u, which projects away directions in n space that cannot appreciably alter $\mathcal{L}$. The algorithm for doing so is a slight modification to principal components analysis, and is less restrictive on p(n) than other proposed solutions to this issue. We demonstrate this “mode projection” technique using the analysis of 2-point correlation functions of weak lensing fields and galaxy density in the Dark Energy Survey, where n is a binned representation of the redshift distribution n(z) of the galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Gaussian Process Approach to Shear Mapping with MuyGPs

Analysis of cosmic shear is an integral part of understanding structure growth across cosmic time, which in turn provides us with information about the nature of dark energy. Conventional methods generate shear maps from which we can infer the matter distribution in the universe. Current methods (e.g., Kaiser–Squires inversion) for generating these maps, however, are tricky to implement and can introduce bias. Recent alternatives construct a spatial process prior for the lensing potential, which allows for inference of the convergence and shear parameters given lensing shear measurements. Realizing these spatial processes, however, scales cubically in the number of observations—an unacceptable expense as near-term surveys expect billions of correlated measurements. Therefore, we present a linearly scaling shear map construction alternative using a scalable Gaussian process prior called MuyGPs. MuyGPs avoids cubic scaling by conditioning interpolation on only nearest neighbors and fits hyperparameters using batched leave-one-out cross-validation. This work is the first step toward a full, scalable mass mapping method. We work in a simplified regime where we validate our method by interpolating and analyzing maps given noisy point-estimate data from all three shear fields, taken from a suite of N -body ray-tracing simulations. We also show that we can perform these operations at the scale of billions of galaxies on high-performance computing platforms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving unfolding and systematic uncertainty estimation using generative diffusion networks (Final Technical Report)

This final technical report summarizes the key accomplishments on the unfolding using diffusion model project, a DOE award received by PI Pierre-Hugues Beauchemin at Tufts University. This project main goal was to investigate the potential of diffusion models for unfolding experimental High Energy Physics data from detector effects while controlling systematics uncertainties. The project accomplished its goals by completing the following objectives: 1) Performing an object-by-object, event-by-event unfolding of various kinematic distributions reconstructed from detector data in HEP in a way that keeps correlations between unfolded observables while demonstrating competitive performance compared to standard algorithms used in the field; 2) Address the generalization problem by developing an unfolding algorithm capable to correctly infer the underlying distributions of observables and processes never seen before, while controlling the dominant theoretical uncertainties affecting the process, therefore increasing the effectiveness, the precision, and the applicability of the developed algorithm; 3) Understand the theoretical foundations between the developed algorithm so to extend it to applications beyond experimental HEP, for broader benefits to the society. This report provides an overview of the accomplishments related to each of these key objectives.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing correlated truncation errors in modern nucleon-nucleon potentials

We test the BUQEYE model of correlated effective field theory (EFT) truncation errors on Reinert, Krebs, and Epelbaum's semilocal momentum-space implementation of the chiral EFT (𝜒⁢EFT ) expansion of the nucleon-nucleon (NN) potential. This Bayesian model hypothesizes that dimensionless coefficient functions extracted from the order-by-order corrections to NN observables can be treated as draws from a Gaussian process (GP). We combine a variety of graphical and statistical diagnostics to assess when predicted observables have a 𝜒⁢EFT convergence pattern consistent with the hypothesized GP statistical model. Our conclusions are that, first, the BUQEYE model is generally applicable to the potential investigated here, which enables statistically principled estimates of the impact of higher EFT orders on observables. Second, parameters defining the extracted coefficients such as the expansion parameter 𝑄 must be well chosen for the coefficients to exhibit a regular convergence pattern—a property we exploit to obtain posterior distributions for such quantities. Third, the assumption of GP stationarity across lab energy and scattering angle is not generally met; this necessitates adjustments in future work. We provide a workflow and interpretive guide for our analysis framework, and show what can be inferred about probability distributions for 𝑄, the EFT breakdown scale Λ 𝑏 , the scale associated with soft physics in the 𝜒⁢EFT potential 𝑚 eff , and the GP hyperparameters. All our results can be reproduced using a publicly available Jupyter notebook, which can be straightforwardly modified to analyze other 𝜒⁢EFT NN potentials.

Bayesian methods↗
NASA NTRS1980

Vertical distribution of aerosol extinction cross section and inference of aerosol imaginary index in the troposphere by lidar technique

The paper reports on vertical profiles of aerosol extinction and backscatter in the troposphere which were obtained from multi zenith angle lidar measurements. It is reported that a direct slant path solution was found to be not possible due to horizontal inhomogeneity of the atmosphere. Attention is given to the use of a regression analysis with respect to zenith angle for a layer integration of the angle dependent lidar equation in order to determine the optical thickness and aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratio for defined atmospheric layers and the subsequent evaluation of cross-section profiles.

Spinhirne, J. D.↗