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Both pluvial and fluvial flooding events pose direct challenges on urban infrastructure and communities across the United States. Heavy rainfall events oversaturate the ground, overflow waterbodies, and overwhelm stormwater infrastructure. Vulnerable areas receive heavy damage from flooding events due to physical factors like increased impervious surfaces, poor stormwater systems, and limited greenspaces. These vulnerable neighborhoods are comprised of aging populations, minority communities, and lower income levels. Lack of data in these communities have made it difficult to implement policymaking and flood mitigation strategies. Using the Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model (InVEST) and the PlanetScope satellite constellation, the team visualized historical flooding and tree canopy coverage as a measure of flood susceptibility. The team also used the Arc-Malstrom model to provide further insight into where flooding accumulates via surface elevation depressions in the study area. To validate these models, the team explored the spatial variation of rainfall events using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG). The resulting maps highlight areas surrounding the cities of Youngstown and Warren as being the most flood susceptible and socially vulnerable, while the city centers contain the lowest tree canopy coverage. The DEVELOP team collaborated with the Environmental Collaborative of Ohio (ECO) to create products for end users within the City of Warren’s Water Pollution Control Department, the Eastgate Regional Council of Governments and the Healthy Community Partnership of Mahoning Valley. These products help identify target areas for preventative flood mitigation measures as well as areas ideal for green infrastructure intervention.
NASA’s view of risk changed between early Apollo and the Space Shuttle. Risk was a known serious problem at the beginning of Apollo and the risk estimates were disturbingly high. To avoid public concern, risk analysis was discontinued. Risk analysis was avoided in Shuttle, leading to an unnecessarily risky design. The immediate cause of the Challenger tragedy was the mistaken decision to launch in cold weather. The fundamental cause was the high risk of the Shuttle design. Before Challenger, management thought and testified that the probability of an accident was 1 in 100,000. After Challenger, Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) found a roughly 1 in 100 chance of a Shuttle failure. The recent Orion design uses the safer Apollo approach, with a hardened capsule, launch abort escape, and the crew placed above the rocket tanks and engines. During Apollo it was estimated that, “assuming all elements from propulsion to rendezvous and life support were done as well or better than ever before, that 30 astronauts would be lost before 3 were returned safely to the Earth.” The chance of astronaut survival was only 10%. After the Apollo 1 tragedy, the awareness of risk led to an intense focus on achieving safety. “The only possible explanation for the astonishing success – no losses in space and on time – was that every participant at every level in every area far exceeded the norm of human capabilities.” During Apollo, a NASA PRA found that the chance of success was “less than 5 percent.” The NASA Administrator felt that “the numbers could do irreparable harm,” and discontinued numerical risk assessment. This led to decreasing understanding of risk. The head of Apollo reliability and safety decided, “Statistics don’t count for anything,” and that risk is reduced by “attention taken in design.” The great and initially unexpected success of Apollo appeared to validate the neglect of PRA. Continuing to neglect the mathematical estimation of risk led Shuttle into a high risk design that produced tragic results. The initial design of the Shuttle emphasized increasing capability and reducing cost without analysis or even mention of risk. A retired NASA official stated, “some NASA people began to confuse desire with reality. … One result was to assess risk in terms of what was thought acceptable without regard for verifying the assessment. … Note that under such circumstances real risk management is shut out.” Not computing risk led to removing launch abort, removing crew escape, selecting less reliable Solid Rocket Boosters, placing the crew compartment next to the rocket boosters, and accepting more stressed shielding tile designs. Accepting these specific risks directly caused the shuttle disasters. The Challenger tragedy is frequently taught as a case of management failure. The focus is on the Challenger launch decision hours before, which is a dramatic example of bad management. However, the true cause of the Challenger disaster occurred decades earlier in the Apollo era. When the easily predictable failures occurred, failure investigations focused on how they might have been avoided. The Shuttle was cancelled after the space station was completed because of its high risk. The ultimate cause of the Shuttle tragedies was the choice by the Apollo-era NASA administrator to avoid a negative public reaction to realistic risk analysis.
SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.
NASA's Advanced Air Mobility Integration Office has coordinated a meeting with the National Research Council Canada (NRC) to have an interchange of technical area activities to evaluate merit for international partnership. Both NASA and NRC will provide a brief overview of their Advanced Air Mobility activities. Additional aeronautics projects will have an opportunity to present a few slides on current activities and plans. Topics include wildfire, vehicle automation technologies and detect and avoid, and national campaign flight initiatives. NASA's System-Wide Safety (SWS) Project will provide a high-level overview of the the safety demonstrator series. The project has scheduled operational demonstrations of an in-time aviation safety management system across a series of disaster-oriented operations. First up is a wildland fire demonstration scheduled for 2025. Opportunities for synergy will be discussed.
After the Shuttle Columbia catastrophe, the investigation board (CAIB) stated that NASA needs to develop a "learning culture", meaning a capability to learn from past failures by understanding the technical and organizational causes of these mistakes (CAIB report, 2003). While many organizations learn from obvious failures, we argue that it is harder for organizations to learn from near-miss events (i.e., situations where a failure does not occur but nearly did), because these near-misses are processed as successes. For the shuttle program, prior debris problems could have caused a similar failure as on the Columbia mission except that the large pieces missed the highly sensitive portions of the orbiter. This acceptance of foam debris was adopted as a normal occurrence by the shuttle program managers similar to the problems at the time of the Challenger Disaster (detailed in Vaughan, 1996). We extend that work to show that an outcome bias influences people's evaluation of project managers, such that managers of failed missions were perceived more poorly than managers who made the same decisions but whose mission ended in either success or a near-miss. The similarity of ratings between the near-miss and success condition imply that even when a problem occurs that is clearly linked to prior managerial decisions, if the project is not harmed because of good luck, that manager is not held accountable for faculty decision making and neither the individual manager nor the organization learn from the experience potentially increasing the likelihood of a failure in the future.
Increased visibility into records management: a) Partnered with NARA to provide electronic records management and Emergency Response training; b) Mandate all civil servants and records personnel attend training.Improve Disaster Recovery: a) TechDoc considered a vital system; b) All electronic documentation and records managed by our system available offsite.
Resiliency is one of the key challenges in today's power system. Natural disasters and cyber-attacks both can limit communications between microgrids and the central management system. Thus, having a Distributed Microgrid Coordination (DMC) algorithm can improve the system resiliency, which enables the microgrids to operate without communication with the central management system. Peer-to-Peer Energy Management System for Distributed Microgrid Coordination adopts a primal-dual approach, where each microgrid controller keeps a local estimate of the dual variables. The estimate is updated with local measurements and peer-to-peer communication, leading to a fully distributed algorithm. While the DMC is developed for microgrid coordination, it can be used for general distributed control purpose.
Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) will enable new types of aircraft to operate more cleanly, efficiently, and quietly, complemented by higher levels of autonomy and automation, and supported by air traffic management systems and infrastructure. The operations that these aircraft and systems are intended to conduct are designed to support missions that cover a varied set of use cases. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been helping to lead the way in its AAM research through a broad portfolio of efforts that leverages multiple internal activities and external collaborations with industry and government. As the AAM concept has continued to advance, it has also become clear that there are very likely great benefits in its application to disaster response and the challenges posed by such complex events. In this application, NASA is leveraging its foundational work performed in partnership with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) on integrated unmanned and manned aircraft operations in disaster response situations. The joint NASA and JAXA work, along with the ongoing AAM efforts, have contributed to the formulation of a new project that will expand the scope of technology integration with an initial focus on wildland firefighting.
With increasing adverse weather events and disasters, enabling resiliency of the power distribution system (PDS) is becoming increasingly important. Here in this work, resiliency is defined as the systems ability to keep supplying critical loads even with multiple contingencies. Resiliency may depend on: (a) advanced tools to assist operators in situational awareness and decision making with the increasing volume of data generated by the PDS, (b) visualization and ease of interaction with system resources and information, especially during extreme events and resulting human operator stress, and (c) flexible resources and autonomous control. Operators and support engineers need to interact with the system for key information and take action under stress, given the requirement for decisions in a short time. Integrated technological solutions are prevailing steps to support the most appropriate decision during critical times to serve essential loads. In order to meet the required goals, a Real-time Resiliency Monitoring and Operational Decision Support (RT-RMOD) tool have been developed. It supports various functionalities, including real-time monitoring, resilience assessment, and proactive decision support. However, this work makes advanced feature additions to the tool by developing data-enabled resilience management algorithms for (i) outage detection and localization, (ii) Resiliency-metric driven restoration and reconfiguration, and (iii) NLP based digital assistant for operators called DINGO (DIgital assistaNt to Grid Operators) to interact with Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) and RT-RMOD. The developed algorithm was validated for multiple cases of weather events using a real-world, off-grid microgrid system modeled in a real-time simulator, sensor data, and software tools.
The urban drainage system constantly facing flooding issues in coastal and urban areas. Robust and accurate urban flood management, particularly considering fast-moving compound floods, is crucial to minimize the impact of flood disasters in coastal cities. Till now, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) lacks an effective means of urban flood management because of flood risk communication among residents. Existing flood risk communication tools rely on post-disaster flood model outcomes and data. Therefore, this research proposes a real-time Early Urban Flooding Warning System (EUFWS) integrated with a user-friendly web and app interface. The backbone of this system consists of flood models developed using machine learning (ML) algorithms, combined with big data and Web-GIS visualization, with ML serving as the core for constructing the EUFWS. EUFWS offer several key advantages: they are available at all times, accessible from anywhere, and provide a real-time, multi-user working platform. Additionally, the system is flexible, allowing for the easy addition of components and services and scalable, adjusting to workload demands. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. Research results indicate that EUFWS supported decision-makers to be effectively risk informed and make intelligent decisions during urban flood emergencies. Finally, this underscores the significant potential of integrating ML and information technology to enhance the management of smart urban drainage systems in flood-prone cities worldwide.
Natural disasters can result in the loss of life and cost governments and private industry billions to recover each year. Over the past decade the rate and severity of natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes have resulted in increasingly negative impacts to communities, public health, natural ecosystems, and the economy. To help reduce these impacts, NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate is working to advance technologies and enable the safe and efficient inclusion of novel aviation applications to better assist in disaster response. To execute on these efforts, NASA’s Advanced Capabilities for Emergency Response Operations (ACERO) and System-Wide Safety (SWS) projects have developed coordinated strategic research plans focused on aviation operations for disaster response. The ACERO project will be a multi-year effort that focuses on enabling the use of uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) to improve firefighter safety and efficiency and enable the use of UAS to conduct new missions such as logistics and aerial suppression. The ACERO project will demonstrate technologies that support the Second Shift concept, enabling UAS and ground technologies to support aerial suppression in degraded visual conditions (e.g., heavy smoke, nighttime). The SWS project will be a multi-year effort that focuses on addressing the key safety barriers that are preventing the authorization of UAS operations in a variety of increasingly complex disaster response applications: post-hurricane response, medical courier, and urban disaster response. The SWS project will demonstrate an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) designed to effectively monitor, assess, and mitigate safety risks associated with hazards to UAS operations for disaster response. This paper will provide a deeper insight into NASA’s research and development plans and discuss how solutions developed in partnership with industry stakeholders and federal agencies will improve disaster response across the globe.
This is a proposal to develop a uniform global environmental data gathering and distribution system to support the calibration and validation of remotely sensed data. SAMS is based on an enhanced version of FE MA's Integrated Emergency Management Information Systems and the Department of Defense's Air Land Battlefield Environment Software Systems. This system consists of state-of-the-art graphics and visualization techniques, simulation models, database management and expert systems for conducting environmental and disaster preparedness studies. This software package will be integrated into various Landsat and UNEP-GRID stations which are planned to become direct readout stations during the EOS timeframe. This system would be implemented as a pilot program to support the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). This will be a joint NASA-FEMA-University-Industry project.
This is a proposal to develop a uniform global environmental data gathering and distribution system to support the calibration and validation of remotely sensed data. SAMS is based on an enhanced version of FEMA's Integrated Emergency Management Information Systems and the Department of Defense's Air land Battlefield Environment Software Systems. This system consists of state-of-the-art graphics and visualization techniques, simulation models, database management and expert systems for conducting environmental and disaster preparedness studies. This software package will be integrated into various Landsat and UNEP-GRID stations which are planned to become direct readout stations during the EOS (Earth Observing System) timeframe. This system would be implemented as a pilot program to support the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). This will be a joint NASA-FEMA-University-Industry project.
The world has great need for analysis of Earth observation data, be it climate change, carbon monitoring, disaster response, national defense or simply local resource management. To best provide for spatial and time-dependent information analysis, the world benefits from an open standards and open source infrastructure for spatial data. In the spirit of NASA's motto "for the benefit of all" NASA invites the world community to collaboratively advance this core technology. The World Wind infrastructure for spatial data both unites and challenges the world for innovative solutions analyzing spatial data while also allowing absolute command and control over any respective information exchange medium.
Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phaseout of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040 as established in Act 17. [1] To meet these goals and support widespread end-use electrification, the territory must explore how renewable energy and other generation technologies can be developed with energy storage, distributed generation, distribution control, electric vehicles, and energy efficient and responsive loads in each of Puerto Rico's cities and communities. To support Puerto Rico in reaching its renewable energy goals; help ensure energy system resilience against future extreme weather events; improve energy justice; and provide inputs to LUMA Energy's walk, jog, and run approach in its coordinated planning roadmap, the U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories propose to evaluate 100% renewable energy pathways through an integrated analysis process. This talk will present steps in designing a two-year study entitled Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy (PR100). [1] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2020. Puerto Rico Territory Energy Profile.
Natural disasters, such as flooding, wildfire, hurricane, tornadoes, earthquakes and tsunamis, pose challenges in preserving human life and minimizing the damages to a region. During catastrophic events, timely response of disaster relief personnel, an efficient deployment of resources in the recovery effort, and coordinated information sharing amongst different relief agencies can make a substantial difference in responding to those impacted by the disaster. Many relief activities currently utilize both ground personnel and manned airborne assets during different phases of the disaster response. Typically, multiple organizations support relief activities and this often creates logistics coordination challenges between agencies which can result in wasted time or resources. The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been developing an "Integrated aircraft operation system for disaster relief (D-NET)", which assists collection and sharing of disaster information through the integrated operation of aircraft such as helicopters, aircraft, and satellites, for efficient and safe rescue operations by disaster relief aircraft. Due to the advancement in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) technologies, public safety organizations have started incorporating small UAS (sUAS) as an asset in their disasters response activities. To address the airspace integration challenges of the influx of sUAS in the United States the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), under the UAS Traffic Management (UTM) project, has been engaged in research to enable large-scale commercial applications of sUAS operating in low altitude airspace. This paper presents the integration of D-NET, which incorporate sUAS in the planning, information sharing, and operation support of disasters response activities, and UTM, which provides airspace management to enable large scale high density operations. The integration of the DNET and UTM systems enables coordination, data sharing, and airspace management to improve the timeliness of the disaster response, enable relief organization to reduce cost and overhead by using UAS assets and still maintain airspace safety during the relief activities.