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Results for “density estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Estimation of distributions via multilevel Monte Carlo with stratified sampling

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the joint cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a vector-valued quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters and initial conditions. Our approach combines MLMC with stratified sampling of the input sample space by replacing standard Monte Carlo at each level with stratified Monte Carlo initialized with proportionally allocated samples. We show that the resulting stratified MLMC (sMLMC) algorithm is more efficient than its standard MLMC counterpart due to the additional variance reduction provided by the stratification of the random parameter's domain, especially at the coarsest levels. Additional computational cost savings are obtained by smoothing the indicator function with a Gaussian kernel, which proves to be an efficient and robust alternative to recently developed polynomial-based techniques.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic learning and updating of a digital twin for composite material systems

This paper presents an approach for characterizing and estimating statistical dependence between a large number of observables in a composite material system. Conditional regression is carried out using the estimated joint density function, permitting a systematic exploration of interdependence between fine scale and coarse observables that can be used for both prognosis and design of complex material systems. An example demonstrates the integration of experimental data with a computational database. The statistical approach is based on the probabilistic learning on manifolds recently developed by the authors. This approach leverages intrinsic structure detected through diffusion on graphs with projected stochastic differential equations to generate samples constrained to that structure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering acoustic signatures of pore formation in laser powder bed fusion

Abstract We present a machine learning workflow to discover signatures in acoustic measurements that can be utilized to create a low-dimensional model to accurately predict the location of keyhole pores formed during additive manufacturing processes. Acoustic measurements were sampled at 100 kHz during single-layer laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) experiments, and spatio-temporal registration of pore locations was obtained from post-build radiography. Power spectral density (PSD) estimates of the acoustic data were then decomposed using non-negative matrix factorization with custom $$\varvec{k}$$ k -means clustering (NMF $$\varvec{k}$$ k ) to learn the underlying spectral patterns associated with pore formation. NMF $$\varvec{k}$$ k returned a library of basis signals and matching coefficients to blindly construct a feature space based on the PSD estimates in an optimized fashion. Moreover, the NMF $$\varvec{k}$$ k decomposition led to the development of computationally inexpensive machine learning models which are capable of quickly and accurately identifying pore formation with classification accuracy of supervised and unsupervised label learning greater than 95% and 90%, respectively. The intrinsic data compression of NMF k , the relatively light computational cost of the machine learning workflow, and the high classification accuracy makes the proposed workflow an attractive candidate for edge computing toward in-situ keyhole pore prediction in LPBF.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Thermal diffusivity recovery and defect annealing kinetics of self-ion implanted tungsten probed by insitu transient grating spectroscopy

Tungsten is a promising candidate material for plasma-facing armour components in future fusion reactors. A key concern is irradiation-induced degradation of its normally excellent thermal transport properties. In this comprehensive study, thermal diffusivity degradation in ion-implanted tungsten and its evolution from room temperature (RT) to 1073 K is considered. Five samples were exposed to 20 MeV self-ions at RT to achieve damage levels ranging from 3.2 x 10 -4 to 3.2 displacements per atom (dpa). Transient grating spectroscopy with in-situ heating was then used to study thermal diffusivity evolution as a function of temperature. Using a kinetic theory model, an equivalent point defect density is estimated from the measured thermal diffusivity. The results showed a prominent recovery of thermal diffusivity between 450 K and 650 K, which coincides with the onset of mono-vacancy mobility. After 1073 K annealing samples with initial damage of 3.2 x 10 -3 dpa or less recover close to the pristine value of thermal diffusivity. For doses of 3.2 x 10 -2 dpa or higher, on the other hand, a residual reduction in thermal diffusivity remains even after 1073 K annealing. Transmission electron microscopy reveals that this is associated with extended, irradiation-induced dislocation structures that are retained after annealing. A sensitivity analysis shows that thermal diffusivity provides an efficient tool for the assessing total defect content in tungsten up to 1000 K.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the measurement of shape: With applications to lunar regolith

With the renewed commitment from NASA and other commercial entities for a presence on the Moon, the importance of understanding the characteristics of lunar regolith and how to utilize it have become the target of increasing scrutiny. Much of what is known about lunar regolith was collected during and immediately after the Apollo program, however, analytical techniques and instrumentation have advanced in leaps and bounds in the subsequent decades. Specifically, dynamic image analysis systems have advanced to the point that millions of particles can have morphological characteristics automatically determined in relatively short time frames. Particle morphological data was collected on several lunar samples and a pair of widely used regolith simulants to ascertain the accuracy of these simulants and to explore statistical analysis methods of these large datasets. It is found that these morphology datasets can vary widely depending on the particle size of the particles, and simple averaging of the data skews the results heavily towards the numerically abundant size ranges, the fines. Different reporting methods are suggested to ameliorate these problems. When applied to the lunar regolith, the particles are noted to be less morphologically complex than initially suspected. Compared to the lunar material, the simulants are found to contain some more morphological variability and angular grains. Such difference is likely due to the wildly different comminution processes that these different powder systems are subjected to.

2D shape↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electrochemical recovery of Gd into liquid Bi in molten LiCl-KCl-GdCl 3

The electrochemical recovery of Gd into liquid Bi electrodes was investigated in molten LiCl-KCl-GdCl 3 electrolyte at 773–973 K using constant currents of 10–150 mA cm −2 . High round-trip coulombic efficiency (>97 %) was demonstrated for deposition and removal of Gd into and from liquid Bi at all temperatures, confirming chemically reversible electrode reactions towards high recovery yield of Gd using liquid Bi. Furthermore, the overpotential associated with deposition of Gd into the liquid Bi electrode gradually increased with current density and decreased with temperature. At the lowest temperature of 773 K, a steep increase in overpotential was evident at high current densities due to slower mass transport and low solubility of Gd in liquid Bi (0.5 at.% Gd). Based on the impedance spectra of Bi electrodes at 773–973 K, the exchange current density was estimated to be 110–220 mA cm −2 , indicating facile charge transfer at the liquid electrode-electrolyte interface. Post-mortem characterization of Bi cathodes after electrolysis at 873 K indicated the formation of a solid GdBi(s) compound layer at the Bi electrode surface. Chemical analysis of Bi cathodes at various deposited Gd compositions resulted in Faradaic efficiencies of ∼75–84 %, promising a high recovery yield of Gd from molten salts using a strongly-interacting liquid Bi electrode.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Configuration and impurity quantification of AmLi sources using radiography and gamma spectroscopy

This paper presents the non-destructive assay of two AmLi sources used for detector characterization and active interrogation at PNNL, identified as MRC-101 and MRC-103. First, a detailed description of the internal configuration of 2724-BT encapsulated MRC sources is established. X-ray radiographs of the AmLi sources are reported for the first time to verify the dimensions and orientation of the encapsulation. Notably, a density variation was observed as a contrast change across the height of the source cavities. Contrary to commonly made assumptions in literature, it is indirectly observed that the AmLi source/target material only occupies a portion of the source cavity. The intensity of the prompt gamma-rays resulting from the inelastic scatter of alpha particles on 7Li was used to calculate the mass ratios of LiH:AmO2. The gamma-ray spectra revealed the presence of numerous impurities in both source and target material (243Am, 237Np, 154Eu, 23Na, and 9Be). Neutron-gamma production ratios were applied to the intensity of the Doppler-broadened peaks from alpha-induced reactions with 7Li, 9Be, and 23Na to calculate neutron rates for both sources. A neutron/alpha production yield (derived in this work) was then related to the atomic concentration of these isotopes to find the approximate masses within each source. Ultimately, the AmLi source density was estimated with prompt gamma analysis based on partial source volumes as 0.45±0.08 g/cm^3.

DTRA, AmLi, neutron↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Drift‐Kinetic Method for Obtaining Gradients in Plasma Properties From Single‐Point Distribution Function Data

Abstract In this paper, we derive a new drift‐kinetic method for estimating gradients in the plasma properties through a velocity space distribution at a single point. The gradients are intrinsically related to agyrotropic features of the distribution function. This method predicts the gradients in the magnetized distribution function and can predict gradients of arbitrary moments of the gyrotropic background distribution function. The method allows for estimates on density and pressure gradients on the scale of a Larmor radius, proving to resolve smaller scales than any method currently available to spacecraft. The model is verified with a set of fully kinetic VPIC particle‐in‐cell simulations.

Wetherton, B. A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-classical embedding via ghost Gutzwiller approximation for enhanced simulations of correlated electron systems

Simulating correlated materials on present-day quantum hardware remains challenging due to limited quantum resources. Quantum embedding methods offer a promising route by reducing computational complexity through the mapping of bulk systems onto effective impurity models, allowing more feasible simulations on pre- and early-fault-tolerant quantum devices. Here, this work develops a quantum-classical embedding framework based on the ghost Gutzwiller approximation to enable quantum-enhanced simulations of ground-state properties and spectral functions of correlated electron systems. Circuit complexity is analyzed using an adaptive variational quantum algorithm on a statevector simulator, applied to the infinite-dimensional Hubbard model with increasing ghost mode numbers from 3 to 5, resulting in circuit depths growing from 16 to 104. Noise effects are examined using a realistic error model, revealing significant impact on the spectral weight of the Hubbard bands. To mitigate these effects, the Iceberg quantum error detection code is employed, achieving up to 40% error reduction in simulations. Finally, the accuracy of the density matrix estimation and the derived spectral function is benchmarked on IBM and Quantinuum quantum hardware, featuring distinct qubit-connectivity and employing multiple levels of error mitigation techniques.

Chen, I-Chi [Ames Laboratory (AMES), Ames, IA (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2022

Octahedral oxide glass network in ambient pressure neodymium titanate

Abstract Rare-earth titanates form very fragile liquids that can be made into glasses with useful optical properties. We investigate the atomic structure of 83TiO 2 -17Nd 2 O 3 glass using pair distribution function (PDF) analysis of X-ray and neutron diffraction with double isotope substitutions for both Ti and Nd. Six total structure factors are analyzed (5 neutron + 1 X-ray) to obtain complementary sensitivities to O and Ti/Nd scattering, and an empirical potential structure refinement (EPSR) provides a structural model consistent with the experimental measurements. Glass density is estimated as 4.72(13) g cm −3 , consistent with direct measurements. The EPSR model indicates nearest neighbor interactions for Ti-O at $$\overline{r}_{TiO}$$ r ¯ TiO = 1.984(11) Å with coordination of $$n_{TiO}$$ n TiO = 5.72(6) and for Nd-O at $$\overline{r}_{NdO}$$ r ¯ NdO = 2.598(22) Å with coordination of $$n_{NdO}$$ n NdO = 7.70(26), in reasonable agreement with neutron first order difference functions for Ti and Nd. The titanate glass network comprises a mixture of distorted Ti-O 5 and Ti-O 6 polyhedra connected via 71% corner-sharing and 23% edge-sharing. The O-Ti coordination environments include 15% nonbridging O-Ti 1 , 51% bridging O-Ti 2 , and 32% tricluster O-Ti 3 . This structure is highly unusual for oxide glasses melt-quenched at ambient pressure, as it consists of Ti-O x predominantly in octahedral (with nearly no tetrahedral) coordination.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Floating zone crystal growth, structure, and properties of a cubic Li 5.5 La 3 Nb 1.5 Zr 0.5 O 12 garnet-type lithium-ion conductor

As a promising candidate for solid-state electrolytes in Li-ion batteries, the garnet-type Li-ion conductor series Li 5+x La 3 Nb 2-x Zr x O 12 (LLNZO) (0 ≤ x ≤ 2) exhibits high ionic conductivity at room temperature. However, no previous single-crystal growth or characterization has been reported for LLNZO compositions 0 ≤ x ≤ 1. To obtain a complete understanding of the trend in the structure–property relationship in this class of materials, we used the floating zone (FZ) method to grow a single crystal of Li 5.5 La 3 Nb 1.5 Zr 0.5 O 12 that was 4 mm in diameter and 10 mm in length. Using Laue neutron single-crystal diffraction, two distinct Li sites were observed: tetrahedral 24d and octahedral 96h sites. The maximum entropy method (MEM) based on neutron single-crystal diffraction data was used to map Li nuclear density and estimate that the bottleneck of Li transport exists between neighboring tetrahedral and octahedral sites, and that Li is delocalized between split octahedral sites. Room-temperature Li-ion conductivity in Li 5.5 La 3 Nb 1.5 Zr 0.5 O 12 measured with electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) was 1.37 × 10 -4 S cm -1 . The Li migration activation energy was estimated to be 0.50 eV from EIS and 0.47 eV from dielectric relaxation measurements. The Li-ion jump attempt rate was estimated to be 1.47 × 10 12 Hz while the time scale of successful migration is 10 -7 to 10 -6 s.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations

We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the significantly enhanced (u,v) coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The integration of the 12−m Kitt Peak Telescope (USA) and NOEMA (France) stations into the array introduces two critical intermediate-length baselines to SMT (USA) and IRAM 30−m (Spain), providing sensitivity to emission structures at spatial scales of ∼250 μas and ∼2500 μas (∼ 0.02 pc and ∼ 0.02 pc). Without these new baselines, previous EHT observations of the source in 2017 and 2018 lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a “missing flux” of order ∼1 Jy is expected to reside. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases–robust against station-based gain calibration errors–and model the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian component offset from the compact ring emission at spatial separations > 100 μas. Our analysis revealed a Gaussian feature centered at (ΔRA ≈ 320 μ as, ΔDec. ≈ 60 μ as), projected separation of ≈ 5500 AU, with an estimated flux density of only ∼60 mJy, implying that most of the missing flux identified in previous EHT studies had to originate from different, larger scales. Brighter emission at the relevant spatial scales is firmly ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred position of the large-scale jet and is therefore physically consistent with the emission of the jet base. While our findings point to detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, the limited coverage provided by only two intermediate baselines limits our ability to robustly reconstruct its morphology. Consequently, we treated the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component with higher precision.

accretion, accretion disks↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of impact sensitivity, heat of formation and heat of explosion using atomic connectivity

In these proceedings we revisit a large collection of explosives and explosive descriptors with the goal of predicting impact sensitivity using only local atomic environments that can be deciphered from molecular SMILES strings as descriptors without utilizing empirically measured values or computationally expensive electronic structure calculations. From the original database of nearly 500 descriptors, removing empirically measured and electronic structure values decreased the number of descriptors to 135, which we reduced to 18 the most important descriptors using Random Forests. The condensed model predicted impact sensitivity with essentially the same accuracy as the existing, more complex model (R 2 = 0.788 and RSME = 0.312), while remaining applicable to all types of explosives (Peroxides, azides, C-Nitros, Nitroamines, Nitrate Esters, etc.). In addition to impact sensitivity, we proposed similar models to accurately predict values heat of formation (ΔH f ) and heat of explosion (Q), with R 2 = 0.966 and 0.916, respectively. In conclusion, the work in these proceedings allows for prediction of explosive performance and sensitivity with only chemical structure information and an estimate of density.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS

Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.

frequentist statistics↗
DOE OSTI2020

i- flow: High-dimensional integration and sampling with normalizing flows

In many fields of science, high-dimensional integration is required. Numerical methods have been developed to evaluate these complex integrals. We introduce the code i-flow, a python package that performs high-dimensional numerical integration utilizing normalizing flows. Normalizing flows are machine-learned, bijective mappings between two distributions. i-flow can also be used to sample random points according to complicated distributions in high dimensions. We compare i-flow to other algorithms for high-dimensional numerical integration and show that i-flow outperforms them for high dimensional correlated integrals. The i-flow code is publicly available on gitlab at https://gitlab.com/i-flow/i-flow.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discovery and characterization of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems

ABSTRACT AM CVn systems are ultra-compact, hydrogen-depleted, and helium-rich, accreting binaries with degenerate or semidegenerate donors. We report the discovery of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems with orbital periods of 61.5, 55.5, 53.3, 37.4, and 35.4 min. These systems were discovered by searching for deep eclipses in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) light curves of white dwarfs selected using Gaia parallaxes. We obtained phase-resolved spectroscopy to confirm that all systems are AM CVn binaries, and we obtained high-speed photometry to confirm the eclipse and characterize the systems. The spectra show double-peaked H e lines but also show metals, including K and Zn, elements that have never been detected in AM CVn systems before. By modelling the high-speed photometry, we measured the mass and radius of the donor star, potentially constraining the evolutionary channel that formed these AM CVn systems. We determined that the average mass of the accreting white dwarf is ≈0.8 M⊙, and that the white dwarfs in long-period systems are hotter than predicted by recently updated theoretical models. The donors have a high entropy and are a factor of ≈2 more massive compared to zero-entropy donors at the same orbital period. The large donor radius is most consistent with H e-star progenitors, although the observed spectral features seem to contradict this. The discovery of five new eclipsing AM CVn systems is consistent with the known observed AM CVn space density and estimated ZTF recovery efficiency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Baryon acoustic oscillations in the projected cross-correlation function between the eBOSS DR16 quasars and photometric galaxies from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys

ABSTRACT We search for the baryon acoustic oscillations in the projected cross-correlation function binned into transverse comoving radius between the SDSS-IV DR16 eBOSS quasars and a dense photometric sample of galaxies selected from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. We estimate the density of the photometric sample of galaxies in this redshift range to be about 2900 deg−2, which is deeper than the official DESI emission line galaxy selection, and the density of the spectroscopic sample is about 20 deg−2. In order to mitigate the systematics related to the use of different imaging surveys close to the detection limit, we use a neural network approach that accounts for complex dependences between the imaging attributes and the observed galaxy density. We find that we are limited by the depth of the imaging surveys that affects the density and purity of the photometric sample and its overlap in redshift with the quasar sample, which thus affects the performance of the method. When cross-correlating the photometric galaxies with quasars in the range 0.6 ≤ z ≤ 1.2, the cross-correlation function can provide better constraints on the comoving angular distance DM (6 per cent precision) compared to the constraint on the spherically averaged distance DV (9 per cent precision) obtained from the autocorrelation. Although not yet competitive, this technique will benefit from the arrival of deeper photometric data from upcoming surveys that will enable it to go beyond the current limitations we have identified in this work.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗