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DOE OSTI2026

Buildings Sector Scenarios: Demand-side data to support energy system planning in the United States

The US energy system is in a period of high uncertainty about load growth, its implications for the energy generation mix, and downstream impacts on customer energy costs. In this context, there is a need for comprehensive, credible, and readily-customized projections of energy demand to ensure that planning decisions account for end-use management opportunities to improve system reliability and affordability. Here we introduce the Buildings Sector Scenarios (BSS) dataset, which includes a benchmark suite of such projections for the buildings sector — a key source of energy consumption, peak electricity demand, and consumer energy expenditures. The dataset contains projections through 2050 covering the contiguous United States (CONUS) resolved down to the county, hourly level by sector and end use for electricity demand and to the state, annual level by sector and end use for non-electric fuels. We summarize the BSS analysis workflow and the tools and datasets that support it, document key BSS scenario inputs and modeling assumptions, and outline BSS scenario outputs. We assess the technical quality of the dataset against historical surveys and projected estimates of buildings sector demand. Finally, we provide guidance on how stakeholders can access, use, and reproduce the dataset, and/or create new scenarios to explore their own analysis questions.

Langevin, Jared↗

DOE OSTI2020

Future material demand for automotive lithium-based batteries

The world is shifting to electric vehicles to mitigate climate change. Here, we quantify the future demand for key battery materials, considering potential electric vehicle fleet and battery chemistry developments as well as second-use and recycling of electric vehicle batteries. We find that in a lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide dominated battery scenario, demand is estimated to increase by factors of 18–20 for lithium, 17–19 for cobalt, 28–31 for nickel, and 15–20 for most other materials from 2020 to 2050, requiring a drastic expansion of lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply chains and likely additional resource discovery. However, uncertainties are large. Key factors are the development of the electric vehicles fleet and battery capacity requirements per vehicle. If other battery chemistries were used at large scale, e.g. lithium iron phosphate or novel lithium-sulphur or lithium-air batteries, the demand for cobalt and nickel would be substantially smaller. Closed-loop recycling plays a minor, but increasingly important role for reducing primary material demand until 2050, however, advances in recycling are necessary to economically recover battery-grade materials from end-of-life batteries. Second-use of electric vehicles batteries further delays recycling potentials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the electric vehicle charging demand of multi-unit dwelling residents in the United States

Abstract Early battery electric vehicle (EV) adopters can access home chargers for reliable charging. As the EV market grows, residents of multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) may face barriers in owning EVs and charging them without garage or parking availability. To investigate the mechanisms that can bridge existing disparities in home charging and station deployment, we characterized the travel behavior of MUD residents and estimated their EV residential charging demand. This study classifies the travel patterns of MUD residents by fusing trip diary data from the National Household Travel Survey and housing features from the American Housing Survey. A hierarchical agglomerative clustering method was used to cluster apartment complex residents’ travel profiles, considering attributes such as dwell time, daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT), income, and their residences’ US census division. We propose a charging decision model to determine the charging station placement demand in MUDs and the charging energy volume expected to be consumed, assuming that MUD drivers universally operate EVs in urban communities. Numerical experiments were conducted to gain insight into the charging demand of MUD residents in the US. We found that charging availability is indispensable for households that set out to meet 80% state of charge by the end of the day. When maintaining a 20% comfortable state of charge the entire day, the higher the VMT are, the greater the share of charging demand and the greater the energy use in MUD chargers. The upper-income group requires a greater share of MUD charging and greater daily kWh charged because of more VMT.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

The Social Cost of Individual Privacy in Aggregated Residential Demand Response

There is an increasing body of experimental and theoretical research related to demand response using smart, connected home equipment in smart grid. However, as technologies are deployed at scale, privacy has become a major concern. One possible approach to address this concern is to model an entire home as an aggregated unit of resource for engaging in demand response. Such an approach would allow residents to participate in demand response while abstracting the specifics of the appliance usage pattern from the utility provider. The benefits of privacy-preserving demand response notwithstanding, it implies a cost in terms of wasted capacity. This paper aims to explore the privacy/capacity tradeoff by simulating a fleet of homes and comparing the results with a fleet of individual appliances. The results show that a fleet of homes only bids about 70% of available capacity, and in the presence of an aggregator this number declines to 50%. Thus, privacy of individual homes comes at a cost of sacrificing part of otherwise available capacity.

Tsybina, Eve↗

DOE OSTI2020

Selling Demand Response Using Options

Wholesale electricity markets in many jurisdictions use a two-settlement structure: a day-ahead market for bulk power transactions and a real-time market for fine-grain supply-demand balancing. This paper explores trading demand response assets within this two-settlement market structure. Here, we consider two approaches for trading demand response assets: (a) an intermediate spot market with contingent pricing, and (b) an over-the-counter options contract. In the first case, we characterize the competitive equilibrium of the spot market, and show that it is socially optimal. Economic orthodoxy advocates spot markets, but these require expensive infrastructure and regulatory blessing. In the second case, we characterize competitive equilibria and compare its efficiency with the idealized spot market. Options contract are private bilateral over-the-counter transactions and do not require regulatory approval. We show that the optimal social welfare is, in general, not supported. We then design optimal option prices that minimize the social welfare gap. This optimal design serves to approximate the ideal spot market for demand response using options with modest loss of efficiency. Our results are validated through numerical simulations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing electrical demand and load diversity of low-power water and space heating appliances in US homes

Home renovation and remodeling projects can involve costly and time consuming electrical infrastructure upgrades at the household level. From the grid perspective they also lead to costly replacement of local infrastructure, such as transformers, and can add stress to the grid at peak times. The emergence of innovative, power-efficient household appliances offers a way to minimize these problems. These appliances are designed for lower power consumption, simplifying installation through standard plug-in connections, reducing the need for new electric circuits/panels/service, and minimizing the peak power demand for the home. Key examples include low-power heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) and cold climate window heat pumps that operate on standard 120V outlets. To assess the real-world impact of these solutions, we compiled and analyzed power metering data from several US field studies. This data provides insights into the effects on peak power demand of selecting lower-power appliances. Our analysis focuses on several key metrics, including the maximum power demand of individual appliances, their operational runtime, continuous operation and load diversity. While individual low-power 120V space and water heating appliances offer significant peak demand reductions compared to 240V heat pump or resistance alternatives, their longer runtimes might increase the likelihood of operation during whole-dwelling peak events, albeit at lower power levels.

Less, Brennan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Determining Utility System Value of Demand Flexibility From Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings

This report focuses on ways current methods and practices that establish the value to electric utility systems of distributed energy resource (DER) investments can be enhanced to determine the value of demand flexibility in grid-interactive efficient buildings that can provide grid services. The report introduces key valuation concepts that are applicable to demand flexibility that these buildings can provide and links to other documents that describe these concepts and their implementation in more detail.The scope of this report is limited to the valuation of economic benefits to the utility system. These are the foundational values on which other benefits (and costs) can be built. Establishing the economic value to the grid of demand flexibility provides the information needed to design programs, market rules, and rates that align the economic interest of utility customers with building owners and occupants. By nature, DERs directly impact customers and provide societal benefits external to the utility system. Jurisdictions can use utility system benefits and costs as the foundation of their economic analysis but align their primary cost-effectiveness metric with all applicable policy objectives, which may include customer and societal (non-utility system) impacts.This report suggests enhancements to current methods and practices that state and local policymakers, public utility commissions, state energy offices, utilities, state utility consumer representatives, and other stakeholders might support. These enhancements can improve the consistency and robustness of economic valuation of demand flexibility for grid services. The report concludes with a discussion of considerations for prioritizing implementation of these improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Safer Foundation Solar Demands Skill Collaborative

The milestones and accomplishments achieved in Safer’s Solar Demands Skill Training program required a collective effort of stakeholders. The ability to achieve the desired results and impact lives of the population we serve works best when collaborating with community stakeholders such as community-based organizations, faith-based organizations, community activists, local law enforcement, community residents, employers, and elected and appointed officials. We are working harder than ever to place clients in-demand careers and high-growth industry sectors. Our employer engagement with high growth sectors continues to increase, we have been able to deepen our relationships in this space by providing in demand stackable credential training. Launched our initiative in the green job space by partnering with organizations like ComEd, the Department of Energy, community-based organizations, faith-based organizations, and manufacturers that helped to train clients in the green jobs and renewable energy space. By the end of the year, we will have completed our tenth cohort of photovoltaic solar installation training. The training has been used as a foundation for solar panel installers to acquire new skills in in the green jobs career pathways, such as sales and customer service. It has also served as a pipeline to union-level trade positions through the skills participants obtained through partnership engagement. Safer Foundation's policy and advocacy team plays a major role in expanding opportunities for people with records to over one hundred occupations, including the trades. This reform has allowed many to secure living wage employment, reducing the high recidivism rate within Illinois. Safer continues to build our social enterprise with Reconstructive Technology Partners (RTP). RTP is introducing people with records to the construction trades such as solar, carpentry and electrical through residential remodeling of homes on smaller construction projects. Understanding the need to have a greater community presence, outreach was extended to a boots on the ground model, including, but not limited to door-to-door engagement, DE-EE0008571 Safer Foundation Page 4 of 29 local radio broadcasting and print ads in local newspapers. We continue to seek innovative ways to increase Safer Foundations' presence in the renewable energy space. Outreach efforts gave us an opportunity to share critical reentry information and opportunities about our PV installer program. Giving us reach with local and national audiences alike. We launched a systematic approach to improving client data and client tracking through an evidence-based practices initiative. That implemented an agency wide cross-functional data management system. The system supported our goal of reviewing, evaluating, and making recommendations to improve operational processes, program delivery, information sharing, and more. Played a significant part in the success of the solar program. Finally, economists around the nation agree that there is a significant labor shortage. The shortage directly threatens our ability to sustain our economic growth; if employers do not have access to the workers they need, it can lead to a shutdown in the economic recovery. The demand for Safer Foundation services is more important and impactful than ever. We will continue to build upon our 50 years of experience to address the challenges ahead and serve more people in a better way. We are confident we will accomplish beautiful things that benefit everyone involved because together, we are powerful.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand

Distribution transformers, used to step-down medium voltage to service-voltage level for end-use electrical consumption, are currently experiencing major shortages. Utilities are experiencing extended lead times for transformers of up to 2 years (a 4x increase on lead times pre-2022) and prices have gone up by as much as 5-6 times in the past 2 years. Current shortages have been attributed to pent-up post-pandemic demand, workforce shortages and low retention rates, component supply chain challenges, and materials shortages (grain-oriented electrical steel, aluminum, and copper). The supply of this equipment is critical for the reliability and growth of the power system, and in meeting administration climate goals in terms of electrification of demand and the growth of renewable energy. This report details some of the initial analysis conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity and Office of Policy, in assessing the long-term demand trends for distribution transformers. Expected increased demand is due to a confluence of not only electrification and renewable energy growth, but also in the context of aging electric infrastructure, increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and utility-driven investments in reliability and resiliency of the electricity distribution system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Residential Water Heating Demand Side Management (DSM) - South Africa

The electricity crisis in South Africa has deteriorated significantly, with the country experiencing frequent and prolonged rolling blackouts. These outages have severe economic repercussions, leading to decreased growth and productivity. Demand Side Management (DSM), particularly focusing on electric water heaters due to their significant energy consumption and peak demand contribution, is identified as a key strategy. The study aims to assess opportunities for DSM programs targeting water heating to reduce energy consumption and peak demand. It entails developing a bottom-up simulation model to establish a baseline scenario of water heating electricity load demand in 2023 and 2033, identifying technologies for energy reduction, estimating the impacts of a selected number of measures and providing recommendations to inform policy makers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

The State of Demand Flexibility Programs and Rates

This report provides foundational data on programs and rates that promote demand flexibility in residential and commercial buildings in the United States. Leveraging a dataset of 148 programs and 94 rates collected through a review of utility websites, published electricity tariffs, and a database of demand-side programs, we describe the structure of demand flexibility events and the types and levels of incentives offered. For the two most common program types in our dataset—Wi-Fi thermostat and battery storage programs—we provide additional details on program designs. We also report data on program outcomes, including enrollment and participation, energy and demand savings, and costs. Furthermore, we describe the structure of dynamic rate events, report prices for critical peak pricing and variable peak pricing rates, and describe features of technology rates.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand response providing ancillary services: A comparison of opportunities and challenges in US wholesale markets

Interest in using demand response (DR) resources to supply low cost reliability products to the bulk electricity system is on the rise due to the uncertain impacts of increasing penetrations of intermittent generation and recent rulings supporting demand side participation in wholesale markets from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. However, organized electricity and ancillary services markets are just beginning to support DR resources for ancillary services, and the set of rules and requirements for participation are unique to each market. This paper discusses the opportunities that exist in the ancillary service markets in each US Independent System Operator territory and identifies challenges to market participation for demand response resources. It compares resource requirements, limits to aggregation, measurement and verification, bidding requirements, market timelines, and the types of organizations that can play in the markets. Additionally, it uses market clearing prices and market size to compare what value may be extracted from these markets, and identifies how these prices are currently determined. Using these criteria, PJM and ERCOT have the most favorable conditions for demand response participation in ancillary service markets, and changes to rules that effect aggregation and minimum resource size could promote more participation in other AS markets across the US.

MacDonald, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detailed Laboratory Evaluation of Electric Demand Load Shifting Potential of Controlled Heat Pump Water Heaters

The demand profile management of electric end uses is vital research for utilities and policymakers planning greenhouse gas emission reductions. In this study, detailed laboratory research was conducted on the load shifting potential of 4 grid-connected HPWHs and one electric resistance water heaters (ERWH). The testing applied different CTA-2045 shed and critical peak command designs under three water draw profiles. Highly-controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in Florida. One of the four HPWHs was a prototype incorporating the new CTA-2045-B protocol feature allowing ‘advanced’ load-up above tank setpoint. A three-hour morning (6 – 9 AM) and four-hour evening curtailment (4 – 8 PM) were defined as the shed or critical peak periods reflecting high-value control periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. Tests were performed under baseline conditions (no load shift) and under varied load-shifting schemes, including load up and advanced load up, ahead of shed and critical peak commands. Data were collected from December 2020 – February 2022 in the laboratory and compared with field experiments in Florida and the Pacific Northwest. Grid-connected HPWHs were found to reduce peak demand by up to 0.47 kW compared to uncontrolled HPWH units, depending on time of day, control scheme, draw profile, and temperature cluster. The load up strategy demonstrated the ability of all units to utilize heat pump mode for extended periods ahead of peak events. Demand reductions for the HPWHs were much larger when compared with the ERWH— up to 1.64 kW with large hot water draws in winter.

Fenaughty, Karen↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recharge Demand Mitigation for Latent Heat Thermal Energy Storage at Off-peak Hours

The utilization of integrated heat pump thermal energy storage (HP-TES) systems for space conditioning applications can reduce electrical power demand and achieve utility savings resulting from peak shaving and load shifting. However, issues arise when the energy required to recharge the TES exceeds the shifted energy demand, especially in extreme climates where high-temperature lifts between the outdoor air conditions and phase-change materials (PCMs) during recharging may occur. In this work, a single room-temperature (22°C) PCM-TES is integrated into a single-speed heat pump system using a secondary hydronic loop where the TES is recharged using the outdoor unit during off-peak hours. Three recharge strategies were investigated as potential pathways to reduce recharging power demand: (i) considering different heat source/sink temperatures, (ii) using a variable-speed compressor, and (iii) using a variable-speed pump. Simulations were conducted using Modelica for HP-TES recharging at different heat source/sink temperatures from -30 – 20℃ in heating mode and 0 – 30℃ in cooling mode. Results show that the most effective recharge demand reduction strategy is an HP-TES system using a single-speed compressor with a variable-speed pump for the hydronic loop run at preferable heat source/sink temperatures when the temperature lifts were reduced. Utilizing a variable-speed compressor for the HP-TES system reduced recharge time in extreme cases at the cost of additional compressor power input. The findings motivate potential control strategies that minimize recharge energy and maximize peak energy savings, hence reducing overall operating costs and annual energy consumption for HP-TES systems for space conditioning applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Assessment of Data Center Load Demand Powered by Small Modular Reactors and Distributed Energy Resources

The rapid increase in data center energy demand, driven by AI and large-scale data processing, poses significant challenges to global energy infrastructure. Data centers require substantial and reliable energy for continuous operations and high-performance computing. Current electrical grids face issues such as transmission bottlenecks and aging infrastructure, making it difficult to meet these demands. Integrating inverter-based-resources (IBRs) like solar and wind presents both opportunities and challenges due to their intermittent nature. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) offer a promising solution with their enhanced safety, modularity, reliability, and scalability, providing consistent base load power ideal for data center operations. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of powering data center load demand using a combination of SMRs and IBRs with grid-connected and islanded mode. This study utilized Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) HPC data center hourly load profiles and Xendee microgrid optimization platform to conduct the analysis. In this configuration, SMRs serves as the primary base load power source, consistently providing a steady supply of electricity necessary to meet the minimum load demand of the data center with support from the IBRs. Key performance indicators such as Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Net Present Value (NPV) has been calculated to assess the economic feasibility. The findings from this research will underscore the strategic benefits of integrating SMR plant with DERs – particularly for critical infrastructure load such as data centers.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demand response of loads having thermal reserves

Systems and methods are described herein that improve grid performance by smoothing demand using thermal reserves. The smoothed demand can reduce peak loads as well as the ramp rate of demand that will otherwise require the use of inefficient, expensive generation sources. These improvements are tied to the selective switching on or off electrical loads that are coupled to thermal reserves, effectively using the thermal reserves as an energy storage mechanism. Historical data of past usage can be used to create load model and ensure that effects on customer comfort are minimized while still accomplishing the beneficial effects for the overall grid, which enables grid owners to both reduce their operational cost by avoiding expensive generation and improve system reliability by achieving more predictable power demand.

Ren, Wei↗