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At least 181 records · Page 10

A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model-Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions

Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quadri-joint inversion: Method and application to the Big Sky 9C 3D data set in northern Montana

The Kevin Dome [Formula: see text] storage project, located in northern Montana, attempted to characterize the Duperow Formation as a potential long-term storage zone for injected [Formula: see text]. A multicomponent (9C) seismic survey was acquired for the Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership over a portion of the Kevin Dome using P- and S-wave sources. Prestack migrated PP, PS, SH, and SV data sets were generated. We then applied several stratigraphic inversion workflows using one or several kinds of seismic wavefield at the same time resulting in joint inversions of each data set. The aim of our study is to demonstrate the benefits of doing quadri-joint inversion of PP-, PS-, SH-, and SV-wavefields for the recovery of the elastic earth parameters, especially the S-wave impedance and density. These are crucial parameters because they can help determine lithology and porefill in the reservoir characterization workflow. Because the inversion workflow always uses the original seismic data recorded in its own time domain, it is necessary to compute registration laws between PP-PS-, PP-SH-, and PP-SV-wavefields using a time shift computation procedure (warping) based on inverted S-wave impedances from inversion of a single wavefield. This generated a significant improvement over methods that rely on attempting to match trace waveforms that may have a different phase, frequency content, and polarity. Finally, we wanted to investigate the reliability of the quadri-joint inversion results in the Bakken/Banff Formations, which have less lateral geologic variation than the underlying Duperow target. This interval shares many of the geophysical characterization challenges common to shale reservoirs in other North American basins. We computed geomechanical parameters, such as Poisson’s ratio and Young’s modulus, which are a proxy for brittleness. Comparison of these results with independent laboratory measurements in the Bakken interval demonstrates the superiority of the quadri-joint inversion method to the traditional inversion using P-wave data only.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

High-Resolution Wind Resource Data Set of the Greater Puerto Rico Region

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy and six national laboratories launched the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100). PR100 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of possible pathways for Puerto Rico's energy future, with a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. As a part of the renewable energy potential assessment in this project, we developed 20 years (2001-2020) of data using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for onshore and offshore wind resource assessment for the Puerto Rico. The research steps in developing the long-term wind resource data sets based on the NWP model were: 1. Model wind resource based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. 2. Develop WRF model configurations for Puerto Rico. 3. Test WRF with 11 different physics parameterizations for planetary boundary layer (PBL). 4. Assess WRF output from the different PBL schemes against observations. 5. Select a final model configuration which can produce the modeled wind speed with sufficient accuracy. 6. Produce 20 years wind resource data sets for Puerto Rico region. In the first stage of our framework for developing wind resource data, we developed a WRF model configuration using two nested domains (9 km and 3 km) to cover Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and downscale the ERA5 reanalysis data (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees; hourly interval) to a 3-km domain. For the second stage, we implemented one-year simulations focused on using 11 different PBL physics parameterizations to find a combination of WRF physics parameterizations that could provide accurately modeled wind speed for Puerto Rico. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the modeled wind speed to PBL schemes for onshore and offshore locations. The WRF output resulting from the 11 WRF experiments using different PBL parameterizations were evaluated against observations obtained from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) as well as at hub height for a location for which measurements were available. A final model setup selected through the validation with observational data was used to produce 20 years of data with 3-km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. The WRF model output was post-processed to include wind profiles and basic atmospheric variables in a format that can be easily used for downstream modeling. The 20 years of wind resource data will be made available through NREL and support the estimation of wind energy development costs for the PR100 study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Public Data Set: A Magnetic Diagnostic Suite for the Pegasus-III Experiment

This public data set contains openly-documented, machine readable digital research data corresponding to figures published in J.A. Reusch et al., 'A Magnetic Diagnostic Suite for the Pegasus-III Experiment,' Review of Scientific Instruments 95, 093518 (2024). DOI: 10.1063/5.0219341

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

PARALLEL HOP: A SCALABLE HALO FINDER FOR MASSIVE COSMOLOGICAL DATA SETS

Modern N-body cosmological simulations contain billions (10{sup 9}) of dark matter particles. These simulations require hundreds to thousands of gigabytes of memory and employ hundreds to tens of thousands of processing cores on many compute nodes. In order to study the distribution of dark matter in a cosmological simulation, the dark matter halos must be identified using a halo finder, which establishes the halo membership of every particle in the simulation. The resources required for halo finding are similar to the requirements for the simulation itself. In particular, simulations have become too extensive to use commonly employed halo finders, such that the computational requirements to identify halos must now be spread across multiple nodes and cores. Here, we present a scalable-parallel halo finding method called Parallel HOP for large-scale cosmological simulation data. Based on the halo finder HOP, it utilizes message passing interface and domain decomposition to distribute the halo finding workload across multiple compute nodes, enabling analysis of much larger data sets than is possible with the strictly serial or previous parallel implementations of HOP. We provide a reference implementation of this method as a part of the toolkit {sup yt}, an analysis toolkit for adaptive mesh refinement data that include complementary analysis modules. Additionally, we discuss a suite of benchmarks that demonstrate that this method scales well up to several hundred tasks and data sets in excess of 2000{sup 3} particles. The Parallel HOP method and our implementation can be readily applied to any kind of N-body simulation data and is therefore widely applicable.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Ocean Stratification Data Set for the Tropical North Atlantic With Potential Applications for Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

D2U: Data Driven User Emulation for the Enhancement of Cyber Testing, Training, and Data Set Generation

Whether testing intrusion detection systems, conducting training exercises, or creating data sets to be used by the broader cybersecurity community, realistic user behavior is a critical component of a cyber range. Existing methods either rely on network level data or replay recorded user actions to approximate real users in a network. Our work is the first to produce generative models trained on actual user data (sequences of application usage) collected on endpoints. Once trained to the user's behavioral data, these models can generate novel sequences of actions %that appear to come from the same distribution as the training data. These sequences of actions are then fed to our custom software via configuration files, which replicate those behaviors on end devices. Notably, our models are platform agnostic and could generate behavior data for any emulation software package. In this paper we present our model generation process, software architecture, and an initial evaluation of the fidelity of our models. Our software is currently deployed in a cyber range to help evaluate the efficacy of defensive cyber technologies. We suggest additional ways that the cyber community as a whole can benefit from more realistic user behavior emulation. The data used to train our model, as well as sample configuration files produced by the model, are available at [redacted].

Oesch, T↗

The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics

The 15 yr pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Improved learning from data competitions through strategic design of training and test data sets

Leveraging the depth and breadth of solutions generated through crowdsourcing can be a powerful accelerator to method development for high consequence problems. While data science competitions have become quite popular and prevalent, particularly in supervised learning formats, their implementations by the host are highly variable. Without careful planning, a supervised learning competition is vulnerable to overfitting, where the winning solutions are so closely tuned to the particular set of provided data that they cannot generalize to the general underlying problem of interest to the host. This paper outlines important considerations for strategically designing relevant and informative data sets to maximize the learning outcome from hosting a competition. These include: precisely defining the scope of the problem, encouraging participation by competitors from diverse technical backgrounds, specifying the most interesting solution space in order to encourage improvement and distinguish between competitors, strategically generating data sets that enable testing for interpolation and extrapolation to new scenarios of interest, leveraging design of experiment principles for strategic data design while preventing unintentional artifacts in the competition data set that an algorithm could exploit without addressing the real problem of interest, and carefully designing the leaderboard scoring metric to select top solutions that exactly match the overall competition goals. The methods are illustrated with a recently completed competition in the context of urban radiological search to evaluate algorithms capable of detecting, identifying, and locating radioactive materials. Simulated data were used in the urban search competition. Ideas for using measured real data in competitions are also suggested

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗