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At least 181 records · Page 10

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydropower operation in future power grid with various renewable power integration

Hydropower generation may play an increasingly important role in the power grid under increasing contribution of variable renewable sources such as wind and solar. An improved understanding of the changes to hydropower dispatch under future higher VRE grid conditions reveals research gap that should be informed power grid planning and reservoir water releases policies considering multiple other water uses and varying hydrologic condition. Here this study aims to understand the role of hydropower in a changing power grid by employing a production cost model, PLEXOS, across future power system scenarios, planning horizons, and regions. We explore optimized hydropower dispatch to understand its potential role in minimizing the system cost and renewable curtailment. We also examine the sensitivity of hydropower revenue under various grid scenarios of the Eastern U.S. and hydrology conditions. Results indicate hydropower generation follows net load and compensates for the variability of solar and wind generation. Although energy prices are lower during some periods in the future grid scenarios, there is a potential for higher revenue for hydropower by providing both energy and ancillary services during times of stress. Additionally, hydropower revenue is sensitive to hydrology in the SERC region, which we considered as an example. The feasibility of hydropower dispatching with higher ramps between low and high hourly-capacity factors, as indicated in the optimization model, requires further study to consider other water use and ecology constraints.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Market-Integrated Optimization of Wind-Battery-Hydrogen Hybrids for Peaking Capacity via Storage

As Integrated Energy Systems (IES) combine multiple energy and storage technologies to provide potentially more value and less risk via resource diversification, complementary overbuild, increased flexibility, and revenue-stacking, IES value is dependent on electricity market dispatch and grid interactions should play an important role in IES design and operation. This study hybridizes and retrofits wind and combustion turbine plants to study the impacts of replacing gas generation capacity with wind, battery, PEM electrolysis, hydrogen tanks and hydrogen turbines. The optimized design is co-simulated in a production cost model with different bidding strategies in order to compare performance and highlight the importance of grid-interactions. We analyze the revenue and dispatch changes as well as the price and cost implications of wind-battery-hydrogen IESs.

electrolysis↗

Optimization strategies for produced water networks with integrated desalination facilities

Optimal management and desalination of produced water is a major challenge for U.S. oil and gas development. Integrating rigorous desalination models into multi-period produced water network optimization problems presents several hurdles, which need to be tackled using advanced optimization strategies. Here, in this work, a novel multi-period produced water network formulation with separate solid and liquid flows is introduced to avoid singularities at zero flows. Rigorous steady state desalination models based on mechanical vapor recompression are embedded at the desalination sites in the network model. An integrated optimization formulation is developed to co-optimize the design of desalination units along with the operation of the network. Furthermore, a more robust approach based on the trust region filter method is developed to efficiently integrate complex desalination models into the multi-period planning problem. Both optimization approaches are demonstrated on a produced water network from the PARETO library (Drouven et al., 2022) using thermal desalination units. Our results show that while the TRF and integrated approaches have comparable solve times, the TRF approach has better performance reliability in terms of solver convergence. Furthermore, the optimal solution obtained by embedding rigorous models into the network is significantly different than when desalination costs are approximated using simple cost models, which motivates further research in this field.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Design-Point Techno-Economics of Brayton Cycle PTES for Combined Heat and Power

Pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) systems are grid batteries that use heat pumps to create both hot and cold thermal energy stores when there is excess electricity and then use a power cycle to convert the thermal energy into electricity when there is demand for electricity. In normal operation, Joule–Brayton PTES discharges low-grade heat at temperatures useful for thermal energy consumers like district and industrial heating. Furthermore, PTES designs, like conventional combined heat and power (CHP) technology, can be modified to sacrifice some round-trip efficiency (RTE) to increase the temperature of heat rejection. Here, this paper uses design-point performance and cost models that provide a detailed understanding of the efficiency and cost tradeoffs of rejecting heat at various temperatures in ideal-gas Brayton PTES configurations. First, we keep the heat rejection in its nominal location in the PTES system: in the discharge cycle after the low-pressure exit of the recuperator before the cold-storage heat exchanger. Next, we move the heat rejection to the discharge turbine exit. We define design-point metrics that isolate both the cost and performance penalty associated with the hotter heat rejection and attribute it exclusively to the heat economic metrics. Finally, we estimate the performance of electric heater technology to generate heat at equivalent temperatures. We find that the levelized cost of heat (LCOH), including the cost of thermal energy storage (TES) buffering the PTES and heat off-taker, compares favorably versus electric technologies and is less than the cost of natural gas for low temperature scenarios and competitive with the cost of natural gas in some regions of the contiguous U.S. in high temperature scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design-Point Techno-Economics of Brayton Cycle PTES for Combined Heat and Power

Pumped thermal energy storage (PTES) systems are grid batteries that use heat pumps to create both hot and cold thermal energy stores when there is excess electricity and then use a power cycle to convert the thermal energy into electricity when there is demand for electricity. In normal operation, Joule-Brayton PTES discharges low-grade heat at temperatures useful for thermal energy consumers like district and industrial heating. Furthermore, PTES designs, like conventional combined heat and power (CHP) technology, can be modified to sacrifice some round-trip efficiency RTE to increase the temperature of heat rejection. This paper uses design-point performance and cost models that provide a detailed understanding of the efficiency and cost trade-offs of rejecting heat at various temperatures in ideal-gas Brayton PTES configurations. First, we keep the heat rejection in its nominal location in the PTES system: in the discharge cycle after the low-pressure exit of the recuperator before the cold-storage heat exchanger. Next, we move the heat rejection to the discharge turbine exit. We define design-point metrics that isolate both the cost and performance penalty associated with the hotter heat rejection and attribute it exclusively to the heat economic metrics. Finally, we estimate the performance of electric heater technology to generate heat at equivalent temperatures. We find that the levelized cost of heat, including the cost of thermal energy storage (TES) buffering the PTES and heat off-taker, compares favorable versus electric technologies and is less than the cost of natural gas for low temperature scenarios and competitive with the cost of natural gas in some regions of the contiguous United States in high temperature scenarios.

CHP↗

Coordinated Ramping Product and Regulation Reserve Procurements in CAISO and MISO using Multi-Scale Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts (Pro2R)

How can probabilistic solar forecasts lower costs and improve reliability for independent system operator (ISO) markets? We tackle this question in three steps. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty in those forecasts to error distributions for net load ramps for the California ISO (CAISO) using statistical and machine learning methods. Projected net load errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Finally, a multi-period look-ahead production cost model quantifies how conditional ramp requirements can a) decrease operating costs by lowering requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods, and b) reduce generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. In addition to the products just described (quantification of solar uncertainty, its translation into requirements for ramp capability product, and quantification of the benefits of more accurate ramp requirements), this project also developed a visualization system that alerts system operators of ramp and uncertainty conditions within the network based on solar forecasts. The system is called Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RaVIS). These four products represent significant advances in the state-of-the-art of probabilistic solar forecasting, development of weather-informed reserve requirements, production costing methods for estimating the benefits of more accurate reserve requirements, and visualization of system status, respectively. Yet the products are also practical and can be immediately implemented, potentially enabling system operators to save millions of dollars in ramp product procurement costs per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Techno-Economic Modelling of Tidal Energy Converter Arrays in the Tacoma Narrows

Hydrokinetic tidal energy converter (TEC) technology is yet to become cost competitive with other renewable energy sources. Understanding the interaction between energy production and the costs incurred harvesting that energy may unlock the economic potential of this technology. Although hydrodynamic simulation of TEC arrays has matured over time, including demonstration of how small and large arrays affect the resource, integration of cost modelling is often limited. The advanced ocean energy array techno-economic modelling tool ‘DTOcean’ enables designers to calculate and improve the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) of an array through parametric simulation of the energy extraction, design of the electrical network, moorings and foundations, and simulation of the installation and lifetime operations and maintenance of the array. This work presents a verification of DTOcean’s ability to simulate the techno-economic performance of TEC arrays by reproducing the hypothetical RM1 reference model, a semi-analytical model of a TEC array based in the Tacoma Narrows of Washington state, U.S.A. It is demonstrated that DTOcean can produce a reasonable estimate to the LCOE predicted by the reference model, giving (in Euro cents per kiloWatt hour) 36.69 ¢/kWh against the reference model’s 34.612 ¢/kWh for 10 TECs, while for 50 TECs, DTOcean calculated 20.34 ¢/kWh compared to 17.34 ¢/kWh for the reference model.

Topper, Mathew B. R. (ORCID:0000000347324347)↗

Hydropower Flexibility and Environmental Tradeoffs Analysis

The importance of hydropower increases as the power grid evolves with the higher variable renewable contribution. As conventional thermal power plants are retired, the importance of hydropower contribution increases to balance the variability of solar and wind generation. However, reservoir water resources are constrained by multiple constraints, and variability of water inflow to the reservoirs creates limitations to dam water releases for power grid needs. Coordinating multiple tools, including water resources, ecological, and technical and economic power grid modeling, informs dam water releases. The case study, the Columbia River Basin multipurpose reservoir project, is operated for hydropower production and many other purposes considering the aquatic habitat of the river basin. Specifically, the river basin fish population is a vital element for the tribal community of the river basin. We integrated a production cost model, a water resource model, and decades of tribal knowledge to analyze the fish-friendly way of operating Columbia hydropower scheduling and grid impacts. We measure power grid impacts for various water resources planning scenarios in terms of total system operating cost, system reliability indicators, changes in wind and solar generation and curtailments, local marginal prices, and revenue for hydropower producers. The study results inform reservoir operating rules decisions from hydropower power producers, system operators, other water users, tribes, environmentalists, and other stakeholders.

Columbia River↗

Isotherm Modeling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Contactor Technologies for New Tetraamine-Appended MOF for NGCC Applications

Recently, a family of tetraamine-functionalized metal-organic frameworks (MOF) has been reported as promising sorbent materials for capturing CO2 from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) applications. The main advantages of these materials are their two-step cooperative CO2 adsorption, which gives rise to unusual two step-shaped CO2 adsorption profiles and their high thermal stability. This work presents the modelling of the two-transition isotherm of the tetraamine-appended MOF, N,N'-bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane (3-4-3)-appended Mg2(dobpdc), and the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of carbon capture processes utilizing this sorbent. Due to the unusual isotherm shapes of the experimental CO2 adsorption data for tetraamine-appended Mg2(dobpdc) and the strong nonlinearity of CO2 loading with respect to temperature and pressure, we tested two different models which use logistic functions for representing the different isotherm behaviors in the different pressure ranges. The first model uses the quadratic isotherm model in the low-pressure region, the Langmuir isotherm model in the middle pressure range, and the dual site Langmuir isotherm model in the high-pressure range. To model the transition between regions we used the arctangent functions independent of temperature and the thermal effect was accounted by using the Clausius-Clapeyron relation]. The second model is an extension of the weighted dual-site Langmuir isotherm model presented by Hughes et al.. In this extended model, the dual-site Langmuir isotherm is employed in the three transition regions, using temperature-dependent logistic functions to activate or deactivate the isotherm model in the low, middle, and high-pressure ranges. Both models fit the experimental data quite well with root mean squared errors (RMSE’s) of 0.41 and 0.17 for model 1 and model 2, respectively. Since model 2 resulted in a lower RMSE, it was leveraged for the development of the gas/solid contactor models used by the TEA. Specifically, two different contactor models, an axial-flow fixed bed and moving bed contactor, were developed as part of this work. These models are dynamic, pressure-driven, and consist of mass, energy, and momentum conservation equations. A kinetic model was also developed by performing parameter estimation using experimental fixed bed breakthrough data. These models are then used to simulate CO2 capture processes from the flue gas generated from a ~600 gross MW NGCC power plant. A cost model was developed which considers the capital cost of the reactors and the significant operating costs such as steam and electricity. Using NETL’s Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS), which has the capability of linking models built using numerous modelling platforms with derivative-free optimization solvers, a techno-economic optimization of the carbon capture processes was performed which minimizes the cost of capture.

Caballero, Daison↗

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Isotherm modeling and techno-economic analysis of a TSA moving bed process using a tetraamine-appended MOF for NGCC applications

Tetraamine-appended metal-organic frameworks (MOF) are a new family of amine-functionalized MOF materials that show potential for CO 2 capture from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. This work presents isotherm modeling of the tetraamine-appended MOF Mg 2 (dobpdc)(3-4-3)(dobpdc 4- =4,4'-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3'dicarboxylate;3-4-3=N,N'bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane), process modeling, scale up, and a techno-economic optimization of a moving bed Temperature Swing Adsorption (TSA) process for carbon capture using this sorbent. This MOF exhibits a unique two-step CO 2 adsorption profile in three different pressure ranges. Thus, arctangent-based logistic functions and, quadratic and Langmuir models were employed to represent such isotherm behavior. The results of the isotherm model show good fitting vs the experimental data with an RMSE of 0.41. Here, to model the carbon capture process, the isotherm model was embedded into a moving bed contactor model, and this was used to simulate a TSA CO 2 capture cycle and evaluate cost-optimal designs considering flue gas from a -650 MWe NGCC power plant. The capital cost model consists of CAPEX correlations for reactors, compressors, ducting, etc., while the operating costs include steam, water, chemicals, and electricity (following NETL's quality guidelines for energy systems studies). A techno-economic optimization of the capture system was performed by using NETL's Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS). Results suggest that a moving bed carbon capture system with tetraamine-appended MOF can be competitive compared to conventional MEA solvent-based capture processes for NGCC plants, when a heat recovery efficiency of at least 40% is achieved, and MOF materials can be produced at a cost below -$9/kg.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗

HybridBOSSE (Hybrid Balance-of-System (BOS) Systems Engineering Model)

Hybrid Power Plants (HPPs) have the potential to increase the value of renewable energy systems and decrease their costs through shared development (e.g., permitting) and infrastructure (e.g., collection system). Prior work has identified potential cost savings and technical and economic performance improvements for solar plus storage plants. However, additional research is needed to understand cost drivers that are specific to hybrid wind plants. Here we analyze the potential for shared infrastructure cost savings at one type of hybrid plant: wind plus solar photovoltaic (PV). To perform this analysis, we developed a new open-source, Python-based cost modeling tool: the Hybrid Balance-of-System (BOS) Systems Engineering model (HybridBOSSE). HybridBOSSE is an extension of NREL's LandBOSSE tool.

Barker, Aaron↗

Electric-vehicle battery second-life and recycling pathways: How economics depend on chemistry, processing, and application

We assess the economics of repurposing and recycling electric vehicle (EV) batteries by estimating the maximum acquisition price repurposers and recyclers could pay for used EV packs across cathode chemistries, first-life conditions, second-life applications, and recycling processes. We develop a novel open-source process-based cost model of a UL-1974-certified repurposing facility and leverage battery degradation models to estimate the maximum acquisition price repurposers could pay for used EV batteries while producing second-life battery energy storage systems with life-adjusted costs equivalent to new systems. We compare these maximum price estimates to maximum prices for recyclers based on cost and revenue estimates from the EverBatt model. We find that repurposing is more economical than recycling for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, due to their relatively long life and low value materials; recycling is generally more economical than repurposing for lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) batteries, due to their shorter life and higher value materials; and the economics for lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) batteries depend more heavily on first life retirement conditions and second life application intensity. These results suggest an overall strategy: reuse LFP, recycle NCA, and sort NMC into recycling or repurposing pathways based on state of health and second-life application.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Optimal hybrid power plants for electric vehicle charging demand

Transmission constraints, increasing motivations to decarbonize, and concerns over peak electric vehicle (EV) load impacts on local grids have driven electric customers to consider behind-the-meter, hybrid power plant generation and storage at the distributed-grid level for EV charging. In this study, we develop capabilities to optimize hybrid power plant component capacities for EV charging. We then demonstrate these capabilities in a case study for Boulder, Colorado, using public EV charging data as well as wind and solar resource data. Our results show system designs that balance the cost of energy with load-meeting and peak shaving performance. Within the case study, systems designed for wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and storage resulted in lower cost of energy than those optimized for PV and storage only. This indicates that in areas where wind resource exists, hybrid power plants that include wind, PV, and battery assets can better meet EV charging loads (including peak loads that are prone to overloading local grids) than PV and battery assets alone. Future work to address limitations in this paper include extending cost modeling to include performance losses (e.g., based on operations or weather) and charging station costs to estimate levelized cost of charging, and quantifying uncertainty and error in our aggregation methods for estimating EV charging loads at the hourly timescale.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Offshore Wind Farm Turbine and Energy Storage Optimization

Abstract This paper evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of repurposing decommissioned offshore oil and gas platforms as electrical substations for offshore wind projects in the U.S. Gulf of America, a region characterized by relatively low and highly variable wind speeds, extensive legacy offshore infrastructure, and exposure to merchant electricity markets. A unified techno-economic framework is developed using the Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Continued Energy (ROICE) Economic Model (REM) to integrate Gulfspecific wind resource assessment, commercial wind turbine performance, offshore infrastructure cost modeling, and wholesale electricity market exposure. Gulf wind speed data are vertically extrapolated to turbine hub height and combined with manufacturer power curves to compute annual energy production and capacity factors across a broad portfolio of commercial turbines, enabling identification of turbine designs best suited for low-wind offshore environments. Hourly electricity price data from the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) day-ahead market are incorporated to characterize revenue potential, price volatility, and the temporal alignment between wind generation and market conditions. In addition, a conceptual framework for offshore battery energy storage system (BESS) integration is developed to support future investigation of market-responsive energy shifting at repurposed platforms. Results from the turbine evaluation demonstrate that machines with lower cut-in wind speeds and earlier ‘rated-power’ characteristics significantly outperform larger, industry-standard offshore turbines for the same net power under Gulf wind conditions, underscoring the need for region-specific technology selection. Market analysis further reveals substantial price variability and limited intrinsic alignment between wind production and high-price periods, motivating consideration of operational flexibility mechanisms. While storage optimization is not implemented in this study, the REM framework establishes a transparent and replicable foundation for co-evaluating turbine selection, infrastructure constraints, and market exposure, providing a practical pathway for assessing the potential role of repurposed offshore platforms in enabling economically viable offshore wind development in the Gulf of America.

02 PETROLEUM↗