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Forecasting cosmological constraints from the weak lensing magnification of type Ia supernovae measured by the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope

We report that the weak lensing magnification of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is sensitive to the clustering of matter and provides an independent cosmological probe complementary to SN Ia distance measurements. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is uniquely sensitive to this measurement as it can discover high redshift SNe Ia and measure them with high precision. We present a methodology for reconstructing the probability distribution of the weak lensing magnification μ of SNe Ia, p(μ), from observational data, and using it to constrain cosmological parameters. We find that the reconstructed p(μ) can be fitted accurately by a stretched Gaussian distribution and used to measure the variance of μ, ξ μ , which can be compared to theoretical predictions in a likelihood analysis. Applying our methodology to a set of realistically simulated SNe Ia expected from the Roman Space Telescope, we find that using the weak lensing magnification of the SNe Ia constrains a combination of matter density Ω m and matter clustering amplitude σ 8 . SN Ia distances alone lead to a better than 1% measurement of Ωm. The combination of SN Ia weak lensing magnification and distance measurements result in a ~10 % measurement on σ 8 . The SNe Ia from Roman will be powerful in constraining the cosmological model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The cosmic microwave background

Recent observational and theoretical investigations of the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) are reviewed. Particular attention is given to spectral distortions and CMBR temperature anisotropies at large, intermediate, and small angular scales. The implications of the observations for inflationary cosmological models with curvature fluctuation are explored, and it is shown that the limits determined for intermediate-scale CMBR anisotropy almost rule out a baryon-dominated cosmology.

Silk, Joseph↗

Hunting Super-heavy Dark Matter with Ultra-high Energy Photons

At any epoch, particle physics must be open to completely unexpected discoveries, and that is reason enoughto extend the reach of searches for ultra-high energy (UHE) photons. The observation of a population ofphotons with energies𝐸 ≳100 EeVwould for example imply the existence of either a completely new physicalphenomena, or particle acceleration mechanisms heretofore never seen or imagined. But as we outline in thisLetter of Interest, there are also good arguments for super-heavy dark matter (SHDM) in a parameter rangesuch that it could be discovered via its decays to, in particular, UHE photons. Only ultra-high energy cosmic rayobservatories have capabilities to detect UHE photons. We first investigate how current and future observationscan probe and constrain SHDM models in important directions, and then outline some of the scenarios thatmotivate such searches. We also discuss connections between constraints on SHDM and on the parametervalues of cosmological models

Luis A Anchordoqui↗

Cold dark matter confronts the cosmic microwave background - Large-angular-scale anisotropies in Omega sub 0 + lambda 1 models

A new technique is used to compute the correlation function for large-angle cosmic microwave background anisotropies resulting from both the space and time variations in the gravitational potential in flat, vacuum-dominated, cold dark matter cosmological models. Such models with Omega sub 0 of about 0.2, fit the excess power, relative to the standard cold dark matter model, observed in the large-scale galaxy distribution and allow a high value for the Hubble constant. The low order multipoles and quadrupole anisotropy that are potentially observable by COBE and other ongoing experiments should definitively test these models.

Gorski, Krzysztof M.↗

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Particle Dark Matter Across Scales (Final Technical Report)

The research supported by this DOE grant investigated the nature of dark matter, particularly its particle properties and astrophysical manifestations, over the period of 2018 to 2024. The proposal focused on leveraging astrophysical probes, cosmological models, and high-resolution simulations to further our understanding of dark matter, its possible interactions, and the theoretical models that could explain its properties. This research directly contributes to the DOE's mission of exploring the fundamental constituents of the universe, advancing particle physics, and using cosmological and astrophysical observations to detect dark matter.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The primordial matter power spectrum on sub-galactic scales

The primordial matter power spectrum quantifies fluctuations in the distribution of dark matter immediately following inflation. Over cosmic time, overdense regions of the primordial density field grow and collapse into dark matter haloes, whose abundance and density profiles retain memory of the initial conditions. By analysing the image magnifications in 11 strongly lensed and quadruply imaged quasars, we infer the abundance and concentrations of low-mass haloes, and cast the measurement in terms of the amplitude of the primordial matter power spectrum. We anchor the power spectrum on large scales, isolating the effect of small-scale deviations from the Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) prediction. Assuming an analytic model for the power spectrum and accounting for several sources of potential systematic uncertainty, including three different models for the halo mass function, we obtain correlated inferences of $\log _{10}\left(P / P_{\Lambda \rm {CDM}}\right)$, the power spectrum amplitude relative to the predictions of the concordance cosmological model, of $0.0_{-0.4}^{+0.5}$, $0.1_{-0.6}^{+0.7}$, and $0.2_{-0.9}^{+1.0}$ at k = 10, 25, and 50 $\rm {Mpc^{-1}}$ at $68 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence, consistent with CDM and single-field slow-roll inflation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CMB Spectral Distortions: Status and Prospects

Departures of the energy spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from a perfect blackbody probe a fundamental property of the universe - its thermal history. Current upper limits, dating back some 25 years, limit such spectral distortions to 50 parts per million and provide a foundation for the Hot Big Bang model of the early universe. Modern upgrades to the 1980's-era technology behind these limits enable three orders of magnitude or greater improvement in sensitivity. The standard cosmological model provides compelling targets at this sensitivity, spanning cosmic history from the decay of primordial density perturbations to the role of baryonic feedback in structure formation. Fully utilizing this sensitivity requires concurrent improvements in our understanding of competing astrophysical foregrounds. We outline a program using proven technologies capable of detecting the minimal predicted distortions even for worst-case foreground scenarios.

Kogut, A.↗

Model independent comparison of supernova and strong lensing cosmography: Implications for the Hubble constant tension

We use supernovae measurements, calibrated by the local determination of the Hubble constant $H_0$ by SH0ES, to interpolate the distance-redshift relation using Gaussian process regression. We then predict, independent of the cosmological model, the distances that are measured with strong lensing time delays to test their mutual agreement. In this work we find excellent agreement between these predictions and the measurements. The agreement holds when we consider only the redshift dependence of the distance-redshift relation, independent of the value of $H_0$. Our results disfavor the possibility that lens mass modeling contributes a 10% bias or uncertainty in the strong lensing analysis, as suggested recently in the literature. In general our analysis strengthens the case that residual systematic errors in both measurements are below the level of the current discrepancy with the CMB determination of $H_0$, and supports the possibility of new physical phenomena on cosmological scales. With additional data our methodology can provide more stringent tests of unaccounted for systematics in the determinations of the distance-redshift relation in the late universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gamma-ray burst data strongly favour the three-parameter fundamental plane (Dainotti) correlation over the two-parameter one

ABSTRACT Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), observed to redshift z = 9.4, are potential probes of the largely unexplored z ∼ 2.7–9.4 part of the early Universe. Thus, finding relevant relations among GRB physical properties is crucial. We find that the Platinum GRB data compilation, with 50 long GRBs (with relatively flat plateaus and no flares) in the redshift range 0.553 ≤ z ≤ 5.0, and the LGRB95 data compilation, with 95 long GRBs in 0.297 ≤ z ≤ 9.4, as well as the 145 GRB combination of the two, strongly favour the 3D Fundamental Plane (Dainotti) correlation (between the peak prompt luminosity, the luminosity at the end of the plateau emission, and its rest-frame duration) over the 2D one (between the luminosity at the end of the plateau emission and its duration). The 3D Dainotti correlations in the three data sets are standardizable. We find that while LGRB95 data have ∼50 per cent larger intrinsic scatter parameter values than the better-quality Platinum data, they provide somewhat tighter constraints on cosmological-model and GRB-correlation parameters, perhaps solely due to the larger number of data points, 95 versus 50. This suggests that when compiling GRB data for the purpose of constraining cosmological parameters, given the quality of current GRB data, intrinsic scatter parameter reduction must be balanced against reduced sample size.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Parameter inference with non-linear galaxy clustering: accounting for theoretical uncertainties

ABSTRACT We implement euclidemulator (version 1), an emulator for the non-linear correction of the matter power spectrum, into the Markov chain Monte Carlo forecasting code montepython. We compare the performance of halofit, hmcode, and euclidemulator1, both at the level of power spectrum prediction and at the level of posterior probability distributions of the cosmological parameters, for different cosmological models and different galaxy power spectrum wavenumber cut-offs. We confirm that the choice of the power spectrum predictor has a non-negligible effect on the computed sensitivities when doing cosmological parameter forecasting, even for a conservative wavenumber cut-off of $0.2\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We find that euclidemulator1 is on average up to 17 per cent more sensitive to the cosmological parameters than the other two codes, with the most significant improvements being for the Hubble parameter of up to 42 per cent and the equation of state of dark energy of up to 26 per cent, depending on the case. In addition, we point out that the choice of the power spectrum predictor contributes to the risk of computing a significantly biased mean cosmology when doing parameter estimations. For the four tested scenarios we find biases, averaged over the cosmological parameters, of between 0.5σ and 2σ (from below 1σ up to 6σ for individual parameters). This paper provides a proof of concept that this risk can be mitigated by taking a well-tailored theoretical uncertainty into account as this allows to reduce the bias by a factor of 2 to 5, depending on the case under consideration, while keeping posterior credibility contours small: the standard deviations are amplified by a factor of ≤1.4 in all cases.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

New Thermonuclear Rate of 7 Li(d,n)2 4 He Relevant to the Cosmological Lithium Problem

Accurate 7 Li(d,n)2 4 He thermonuclear reaction rates are crucial for precise prediction of the primordial abundances of lithium and beryllium and to probe the mysteries beyond fundamental physics and the standard cosmological model. However, uncertainties still exist in current reaction rates of 7 Li(d,n)2 4 He widely used in big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) simulations. In this work, we reevaluate the 7 Li(d,n)2 4 He reaction rate using the latest data on the three near-threshold 9 Be excited states from experimental measurements. We present for the first time uncertainties that are directly constrained by experiments. Additionally, we take into account for the first time the contribution from the subthreshold resonance at 16.671 MeV of 9 Be. We obtain a 7 Li(d,n)2 4 He rate that is overall smaller than the previous estimation by about a factor of 60 at the typical temperature of the onset of primordial nucleosynthesis. We implemented our new rate in BBN calculations, and we show that the new rates have a very limited impact on the final light element abundances in uniform density models. Typical abundance variations are in the order of 0.002%. For nonuniform density BBN models, the predicted 7 Li production can be increased by 10% and the primordial production of light nuclides with mass number A > 7 can be increased by about 40%. Our results confirm that the cosmological lithium problem remains a long-standing unresolved puzzle from the standpoint of nuclear physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The ISM From the Soft X-ray Background Perspective

In the past few years progress in understanding the local and Galactic ISM in terms of the diffuse X-ray background has been as much about what hasn't been seen as it has been about detections. High resolution spectra of the local SXRB have been observed, but are inconsistent with current thermal emission models. An excess over the extrapolation of the high-energy (most clearly visible at E greater than 1.5 keV) extragalactic power law down to 3/4 keV has been observed but only at the level consistent with cosmological models, implying the absence of at least a bright hot Galactic halo. A very recent FUSE result indicates that O VI emission from the Local Hot Bubble is insignificant, if it exists at all, a result which is also inconsistent with current thermal emission models. A short review of the current status of our (well, at least my) understanding of the Galactic SXRB and ISM is presented here.

Snowden, S. L.↗

Using lower-redshift, non-CMB, data to constrain the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters

Here we use updated Hubble parameter and baryon acoustic oscillation data, as well as other lower-redshift Type Ia supernova, Mg ii reverberation-measured quasar, quasar angular size, H ii starburst galaxy, and Amati-correlated gamma-ray burst data, to jointly constrain cosmological parameters in six cosmological models. The joint analysis provides model-independent determinations of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 69.7 ± 1.2 km s -1 Mpc -1 , and the current non-relativistic matter density parameter, Ω m0 = 0.295 ± 0.017. These error bars are factors of 2.2 and 2.3 larger than the corresponding error bars in the flat ΛCDM model from Planck TT,TE,EE+lowE+lensing cosmic microwave background anisotropy data. Based on the deviance information criterion (DIC), the flat ΛCDM model is most favored but mild dark energy dynamics and a little spatial curvature are not ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the halo-mass and radial scale dependence of the lensing is low effect

ABSTRACT The canonical Lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model makes precise predictions for the clustering and lensing properties of galaxies. It has been shown that the lensing amplitude of galaxies in the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) is lower than expected given their clustering properties. We present new measurements and modelling of galaxies in the BOSS LOWZ sample. We focus on the radial and stellar mass dependence of the lensing amplitude mismatch. We find an amplitude mismatch of around $35{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ when assuming ΛCDM with Planck Cosmological Microwave Background (CMB) constraints. This offset is independent of halo mass and radial scale in the range Mhalo ∼ 1013.3−1013.9h−1 M⊙ and $r=0.1\!-\!60 \, h^{-1} \mathrm{Mpc}$ ($k \approx 0.05\!-\!20 \, h \, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$). The observation that the offset is both mass and scale independent places important constraints on the degree to which astrophysical processes (baryonic effects, assembly bias) can fully explain the effect. This scale independence also suggests that the ‘lensing is low’ effect on small and large radial scales probably have the same physical origin. Resolutions based on new physics require a nearly uniform suppression, relative to ΛCDM predictions, of the amplitude of matter fluctuations on these scales. The possible causes of this are tightly constrained by measurements of the CMB and of the low-redshift expansion history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fundamental problems in astroparticle physics and cosmology (Final Technical Report)

In the standard cosmological model, structure forms when gas cools and condenses to the center of dark matter halos. The onset of structure is governed by rapid star formation and subsequent evolution of the first massive stars. One of the endpoints of stellar evolution is the formation of a black hole. We showed that all black hole merger events must occur after the universe is about 85 million years old. This prediction is important because it means that if a future experiment makes a detection of a black hole merger event at an earlier time then our understanding of cosmology and the onset of structure formation is not fully developed. In addition, we explored dark matter models that have either self-interactions or experience decays. In the first case, self-interactions may lead to the formation of a thick disk that can be co-planar to the Galactic disc due to correlations in angular momentum between dark matter and baryons that are predicted by tidal torque theory. We showed that for heavy dark matter particles, either the self interaction may not be strong enough to solve the small scale structure motivation or a dark disc cannot be present in the Milky Way. In the second-case, we showed that if dark matter experiences decays into two particles, one of which behaves like radiation, then it is possible to relieve the tension that exists between measurements of the local expansion rate. Finally, we developed methods on how to distinguish gamma-ray excesses from promising dark matter targets as compared to conventional astrophysical sources. This is an important toolset that is applicable to any suspected dark matter source.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Expansion-history preferences of DESI DR2 and external data

We explore the origin of the preference of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 2 (DR2) baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and external data from cosmic microwave background (CMB) and type Ia supernovae (SNIa) that dark energy behavior departs from that expected in the standard cosmological model with vacuum energy (Λ ⁢CDM). In our analysis, we allow a flexible scaling of the expansion rate with redshift that nevertheless allows reasonably tight constraints on the quantities of interest, and adopt and validate a simple yet accurate compression of the CMB data that allows us to constrain our phenomenological model of the expansion history. We find that data consistently show a preference for a 3%–4% increase in the expansion rate at 𝑧 ≃ 0.7 relative to that predicted by the standard Λ⁢ CDM model, in excellent agreement with results from the less flexible (𝑤 0 ,𝑤 𝑎 ) parametrization which was used in previous analyses. Even though our model allows a departure from the best-fit Λ⁢ CDM model at zero redshift, we find no evidence for such a signal. We also find no evidence (at greater than 1⁢𝜎 significance) for a departure of the expansion rate from the Λ ⁢CDM predictions at higher redshifts for any of the data combinations that we consider. Altogether, our results strengthen the robustness of the findings using the combination of DESI, CMB, and SNIa data to dark-energy modeling assumptions.

Cosmological parameters↗

Anomalies in the topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background: An analysis of the NPIPE and FFP10 data releases

We present a topological analysis of the temperature fluctuation maps from the Planck 2020 Data Release 4 NPIPE dataset and the Planck 2018 Data Release 3 FFP10 dataset. We performed a multiscale analysis in terms of the homology characteristics of the maps, invoking relative homology to account for the analysis in the presence of masks. We performed our analysis for a range of smoothing scales spanning sub- and super-horizon scales corresponding to a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 5',10',20',40',80',160',320', and 640', and employed simulations based on the standard model for comparison, which assumes the initial fluctuation field to be an isotropic and homogeneous Gaussian random field. Examining the behavior of topological components, represented by the 0D homology group, we find the observations to be approximately 2σ or less deviant from the simulations for all resolutions and scales for the NPIPE dataset. For the FFP10 dataset, we detect a 2.96σ deviation between the observations and simulations at N = 128, FWHM = 80'. For the topological loops, represented by the first homology group, the simulations and observations are consistent within 2σ for most resolutions and scales for both the datasets. However, for the NPIPE dataset, we observe a high deviation between the observation and simulations in the number of loops at FWHM = 320', but at a low dimensionless threshold ν = –2.5. Under a Gaussian assumption, this would amount to a deviation of ~4σ. However, the distribution in this bin is manifestly non-Gaussian and does not obey Poisson statistics either. In the absence of a true theoretical understanding, we simply note that the significance is higher than what may be resolved by 600 simulations, yielding an empirical p-value of at most 0.0016. Specifically in this case, our tests indicate that the numbers arise from a statistically stable regime, despite being based on small numbers. For the FFP10 dataset, the differences are not as strong as for the NPIPE dataset, indicating a 2.77σ deviation at this resolution and threshold. The Euler characteristic, which is the alternating sum of the ranks of relative homology groups, reflects the deviations in the components and loops. To assess the significance of combined levels for a given scale, we employed the empirical and theoretical versions of the χ 2 test as well as the nonparametric Tukey depth test. Although all statistics exhibit a stable distribution, we favor the empirical version of the χ 2 test in the final interpretation, as it indicates the most conservative differences. For the NPIPE dataset, we find that the components and loops differ at more than 95%, but agree within the 99% confidence level with respect to the base model at N = 32, FWHM = 320'. The Euler characteristic at this resolution displays a per mil deviation. In contrast, the FFP10 dataset shows that the observations are consistent with the base model within the 95% confidence level, at this and smaller scales. This is consistent with the observations of the Planck analysis pipeline via Minkowski functionals. For the largest smoothing scale, N = 16, FWHM = 640', both datasets exhibit an anomalous behavior of the loops, where FFP10 data exhibit a deviation that is larger by an order of magnitude than that of the NPIPE dataset. In contrast, the values for the topological components and the Euler characteristic agree between observations and model to within a confidence level of 99%. However, for the largest scales, the statistics are based on low numbers and may have to be regarded with caution. Even though both datasets exhibit mild to significant discrepancies, they also exhibit contrasting behaviors at various instances. Therefore, we do not find it feasible to convincingly accept or reject the null hypothesis. Disregarding the large-scale anomalies that persist at similar scales in WMAP and Planck, observations of the cosmic microwave background are largely consistent with the standard cosmological model within 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗