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Briefing slide deck on IM3's work on the energy and water impacts of data centers. Briefing was given to BER program managers on 19-Mar and 26-Mar 2025.
This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.
The X-37 was planned as an automated vehicle capable of flight-testing new aerospace technologies in combined environments that are beyond the capability of existing ground or flight platforms. Flight demonstration with the X-37 architecture and configuration in relevant environments was planned to reduce the risk of developing launch vehicle technologies for sustainable, affordable exploration and other aerospace applications. Current plans are for the X-37 Approach and Landing Test Vehicle (ALTV) to be atmospheric tested in 2005 from Scaled Composite's White Knight carrier aircraft at up to 40,000 feet over California's Mojave Spaceport, with and turnaround maintenance performed. The fight Operations Control Center will conduct the mission, using a streamlined operations concept. Taxi-tow and captive-carry tests will be conducted prior to the atmospheric-test series. Sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) with NASA participation, technical objectives are to: (1) mature Computed Air Data System/Remote Pressure Sensor technology, (2) manage energy during Terminal Area Energy Management/Heading Alignment Cone maneuvers, and (3) validate the aerodatabase. The X-37 Project began in 1999 under a cooperative agreement as an element of NASA's Future X Program and transitioned to a NASA Research Announcement under the Space Launch Initiative. In mid-2004, NASA transferred ownership to DARPA, with its heritage of performing high-risk, high-payoff research and development. NASA contributes technical expertise, including risk analysis and system integration. The Boeing Company is the prime contractor, with nationwide suppliers. This recent partnership exemplifies the synergy attainable when NASA Centers, other Government agencies, and industry work together toward a common goal - contributing to the knowledge base for U.S. exploration and other aerospace endeavors. The X-37 team represents a range of space transportation disciplines - from engineering to management. Some members have been with the project since its inception. All have gained priceless experience during the design, manufacturing, and testing of the ALTV, as well as through developing advanced orbital flight technologies, such as state-of-the-art Thermal Protection Systems and hot structures. Throughout this process, the X-37 Project team captures lessons that are directly applicable to other such efforts. The upcoming ALTV flights offer another dimension of data and first-hand experience that will prove invaluable to those designing new generations of reusable spacecraft. And ongoing technology developments will expand the aerospace knowledge base. Delivering prototype hardware is always a risky proposition. During the course of the X-37 effort, the team has experienced many challenging opportunities, delivering significant accomplishments and learning numerous lessons in the process. The ability to manage the risk landscape is key to overcoming obstacles, especially technical hurdles that are encountered in progressing hardware from design to flight. The approach to managing risk under this partnership is evolving but, in general, the team allocates resources to reduce the likelihood of severe-consequence risks, thus maximizing mission success and ensuring that the X-37 Project delivers value to its stakeholders. As the team sharpens its focus on operations, it continues to contribute knowledge to those who would undertake high-risk, high-payoff research and development and provides valuable experience to implement the exploration vision.
The X-37 was planned as an automated vehicle capable of flight-testing new aerospace technologies in combined environments that are beyond the capability of existing ground or flight platforms. Flight demonstration with the X-37 architecture and configuration in relevant environments was planned to reduce the risk of developing launch vehicle technologies for sustainable, affordable exploration and other aerospace applications. Current plans are for the X-37 Approach and Landing Test Vehicle (ALTV) to be atmospheric tested in 2005 from Scaled Composite s White Knight carrier aircraft at up to 40,000 feet over California's Mojave Spaceport, with landing and turnaround maintenance performed. The Flight Operations Control Center will conduct the mission, using a streamlined operations concept. Taxi-tow and captive-carry tests will be conducted prior to the atmospheric-test series. Sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) with NASA participation, technical objectives are to: (1) mature Computed Air Data System/Remote Pressure Sensor technology, (2) manage energy during Terminal Area Energy Management/Heading Alignment Cone maneuvers, and (3) validate the aerodatabase. The X-37 Project began in 1999 under a cooperative agreement as an element of NASA's Future X Program and transitioned to a NASA Research Announcement under the Space Launch Initiative. In mid-2004, NASA transferred ownership to DARPA, with its heritage of performing high-risk, high-payoff research and development (R&D). NASA contributes technical expertise, including risk analysis and system integration. The Boeing Company is the prime contractor, with nationwide suppliers. This partnership exemplifies the synergy attainable when NASA Centers, other Government agencies, and industry work together toward a common goal - contributing to the knowledge base for U.S. exploration and other aerospace endeavors. The X-37 team represents a range of space transportation disciplines - from engineering to management. Some members have been with the project since its inception. All have gained priceless experience during the design, manufacturing, and testing of the ALTV, as well as through developing advanced orbital flight technologies, such as state-of-the-art Thermal Protection Systems and hot structures. Throughout this process, the X-37 Project team captures lessons that are directly applicable to other such efforts. The upcoming ALTV flights offer another dimension of data and first-hand experience that will prove invaluable to those designing new generations of reusable spacecraft. And ongoing technology developments will expand the aerospace knowledge base. Delivering prototype hardware is always a risky proposition. During the course of this effort, the X-37 team has experienced many challenging opportunities, delivering significant accomplishments and learning numerous lessons in the process. The ability to manage the risk landscape is key to overcoming obstacles, especially technical hurdles that are encountered in progressing hardware from design to flight. The approach to managing risk under this partnership is evolving but, in general, the team allocates resources to reduce the likelihood of severe-consequence risks, thus maximizing mission success and ensuring that the X-37 Project delivers value to its stakeholders. As the team sharpens its focus on operations, it continues to contribute knowledge to those who would undertake high-risk, high-payoff R&D and provides valuable experience to implement the Vision for Space Exploration.
The performance of state-of-the-art, series-connected, lattice-matched (LM), triple-junction (TJ), III-V tandem solar cells could be improved substantially (10-12%) by replacing the Ge bottom subcell with a subcell having a bandgap of approx.1 eV. For the last several years, research has been conducted by a number of organizations to develop approx.1-eV, LM GaInAsN to provide such a subcell, but, so far, the approach has proven unsuccessful. Thus, the need for a high-performance, monolithically integrable, 1-eV subcell for TJ tandems has remained. In this paper, we present a new TJ tandem cell design that addresses the above-mentioned problem. Our approach involves inverted epitaxial growth to allow the monolithic integration of a lattice-mismatched (LMM) approx.1- eV GaInAs/GaInP double-heterostructure (DH) bottom subcell with LM GaAs (middle) and GaInP (top) upper subcells. A transparent GaInP compositionally graded layer facilitates the integration of the LM and LMM components. Handle-mounted, ultra-thin device fabrication is a natural consequence of the inverted-structure approach, which results in a number of advantages, including robustness, potential low cost, improved thermal management, incorporation of back-surface reflectors, and possible reclamation/reuse of the parent crystalline substrate for further cost reduction. Our initial work has concerned GaInP/GaAs/GaInAs tandem cells grown on GaAs substrates. In this case, the 1- eV GaInAs experiences 2.2% compressive LMM with respect to the substrate. Specially designed GaInP graded layers are used to produce 1-eV subcells with performance parameters nearly equaling those of LM devices with the same bandgap (e.g., LM, 1-eV GaInAsP grown on InP). Previously, we reported preliminary ultra-thin tandem devices (0.237 cm2) with NREL-confirmed efficiencies of 31.3% (global spectrum, one sun) (1), 29.7% (AM0 spectrum, one sun) (2), and 37.9% (low-AOD direct spectrum, 10.1 suns) (3), all at 25 C. Here, we include recent results of testing similar devices under the concentrated AMO spectrum, and also present the first demonstration of a high-efficiency, ultra-thin GaInP/GaAs/GaInAs tandem cell processed on a flexible kapton handle.
Big-data Efficient and Automated Science Transfer (BEAST) was conceived to address the existing ground testing data management of the NASA Ames arc jet facilities (e.g., manually entered Excel files and USB drive data transfers). These data management practices were seen as a choke point for future thermal protection system (TPS) development as they limit statistical tracking, resolution of diagnostics, coordination between video/time series, data throughput, and data processing speed/efficiency. Consequently, BEAST was developed to provide a new data infrastructure with streamlined data collection, processing, transfer, and analysis. This new framework also seeks to implement the FAIR principles of data stewardship: Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable. The BEAST framework is based on a combination of the Python Django web framework and the Python data stack to provide a monolithic, open-source platform for data management, automation, and machine learning. This architecture was chosen for maintainability and scalability for a small, in-house development team. This paper will describe the application framework, deployment, and discuss the benefits and future plans for the system.
Big-data Efficient and Automated Science Transfer (BEAST) was conceived to address the existing ground testing data management of the NASA Ames arc jet facilities (e.g., manually entered Excel files and USB drive data transfers). These data management practices were seen as a choke point for future thermal protection system (TPS) development as they limit statistical tracking, resolution of diagnostics, coordination between video/time series, data throughput, and data processing speed/efficiency. Consequently, BEAST was developed to provide a new data infrastructure with streamlined data collection, processing, transfer, and analysis. This new framework also seeks to implement the FAIR principles of data stewardship: Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable. The BEAST framework is based on a combination of the Python Django web framework and the Python data stack to provide a monolithic, open-source platform for data management, automation, and machine learning. This architecture was chosen for maintainability and scalability for a small, in-house development team. This paper will describe the application framework, deployment, and discuss the benefits and future plans for the system.
NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been a central component of the NASA Earth observation program since the 1990's. The data collected by NASA represent a significant public investment in research. Consequently, NASA developed a free, open and non-discriminatory policy consistent with existing international policies to maximize access to data. EOSDIS manages data covering a wide range of Earth science disciplines including cryosphere, land cover change, polar processes, field campaigns, ocean surface, geodesy, atmosphere dynamics and composition, and inter-disciplinary research, and many others.
NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been a central component of the NASA Earth observation program since the 1990's. The data collected by NASA represent a significant public investment in research. Consequently, NASA developed a free, open and non-discriminatory policy consistent with existing international policies to maximize access to data. EOSDIS manages data covering a wide range of Earth science disciplines including cryosphere, land cover change, polar processes, field campaigns, ocean surface, geodesy, atmosphere dynamics and composition, and inter-disciplinary research, and many others. This presentation will discuss data stewardship and archive activities.
Understanding and accounting for uncertainty in risk analysis is a critical step in the management and communication of risk in engineered systems. The component and system-level analysis to determine the probability of a negative outcome and its consequence is often quantified by a point estimate. Many Program and Enterprise decisions involving technical concerns and issues rely on reliability engineering activities to produce quantified risk analysis to inform the decision making process. At NASA, it is common to use a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) to inform the overall risk to Loss of Mission or Loss of Crew that involves integration across all spacecraft subsystem fault trees to produce an overall probability of mission failure. The point estimate is an estimate of this overall probability and is an immediate result of a fault tree model. It is the result of a model where the probability of each event is taken to be equal to its mean. The value provides an approximation of the overall mean without running any uncertainty calculations (e.g., no sampling). Using only the point estimate can lead to a false sense of precision and the point estimate may not match the resulting mean when uncertainty is taken into consideration. This paper will explore five conditions that can cause the PRA model mean to diverge from the point estimate and will provide engineers and managers insight into the importance of understanding uncertainty in the elements of PRA models.
Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) technologies have advanced to the point where they can provide significant automated assistance with real-time fault detection, diagnosis, guided troubleshooting, and failure consequence assessment. To exploit these capabilities in actual operational environments, however, ISHM information must be integrated into operational concepts and associated information displays in ways that enable human operators to process and understand the ISHM system information rapidly and effectively. In this paper, we explore these design issues in the context of an advanced caution and warning system (ACAWS) for next-generation crewed spacecraft missions. User interface concepts for depicting failure diagnoses, failure effects, redundancy loss, "what-if" failure analysis scenarios, and resolution of ambiguity groups are discussed and illustrated.
As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.
NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) is tasked with archiving and distributing Earth Observation data across a range of disciplines, including atmospheric science, oceanography, land processes, natural hazards, solar radiance and even socioeconomic aspects relating to the environment. Driven by rapidly rising data volumes, EOSDIS is migrating to a cloud computing based archive over the next few years. Although this simplifies data management somewhat, the main aim is to provide the data in an environment where end users can bring their analysis to the data rather than attempting to download and manage ever-increasing volumes. To that end, a cloud-based analysis platform is being constructed to enable data transformations, analyses and visualization without egressing the data from the cloud. In this endeavor, we expect a wide variety of users, algorithms and use cases. Consequently, the architecture of this cloud analytics platform is expressly designed to be based on open services, thus fostering an ecosystem that enables the efficient combination of common components with data-specific or analysis-specific components. Reviewed and approved by Andrew Mitchell, ESDIS project manager.
Offshore wind energy has entered a pivotal phase of development for the U.S. Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), a region that supports critical habitats, migratory corridors and flyways for many marine species. Assessing where and when marine wildlife occurs is a crucial first step in developing a risk assessment framework to evaluate potential risks and impacts of offshore wind development. In this study, we perform this initial assessment by evaluating the expected occurrence of marine mammal, seabird and sea turtle taxa in areas of interest to identify patterns and potential areas of concern. Specifically, this work depicts the expected monthly density of 84 marine species and taxa within each of the 29 active wind energy lease areas plus a 10 km buffer to account for nearby activity. We then compare these densities to subregional thresholds, evaluated as the 90th percentile of the subregion’s monthly density, to provide comparisons across the shelf region. This analysis synthesizes the most recent spatial distribution models of 31 marine mammal taxa (26 species and 5 guilds), 49 seabird species and 4 sea turtle species to provide a unified evaluation of the major marine wildlife in the region. Out of the 84 species and taxa analyzed, 56 exhibit levels of expected density in wind energy areas that exceed the corresponding 90th percentile subregional threshold at some point throughout the year. These results represent an initial assessment in the broader Occurrence, Exposure, Response, and Consequence (OERC) framework, originally developed by the U.S. Navy for marine species risk assessments. These results offer valuable guidance to marine spatial planners, management agencies and offshore wind developers on the expected locations and timing of interaction risk to wildlife species in or near wind energy areas across the region.
Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Model-based analyses play an ever-increasing role in informing policy and decision-making. However, many large-scale societal challenges unavoidably involve questions about the fair distribution of positive and negative consequences. How are the costs of the energy transition distributed over households and businesses? How are flood risks redistributed under different flood risk management plans? How are the impacts of climate change and climate mitigation distributed over different parts of the world?These kinds of questions play an important role when deliberating public policy, and the lack, in many cases, of clear answers becomes an obstacle to decision-making. At recent COPs, for example, wicked questions about loss and damages and the phase-out versus phase-down of coal became obstacles to global climate action, illustrating the misalignment of the direction of scientific research and decision-makers' information needs. In this talk, I'll explore advances that are being made that enable analysts to start providing grounded model-based answers to questions of distributive justice, as well as argue that analysts should embrace and explicate the normative nature of their work instead of hiding behind the purported neutrality of science. Presenters: Dr. Jan Kwakkel (Delft University of Technology) Moderator(s): Rebecca Saari (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Univ. of Waterloo), Matt Sparks (Univ. of Waterloo); Sarah Fletcher (MSD CoP Working Group Co-Chair; Stanford University), Juan Moreno-Cruz (Univ. of Waterloo), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 13, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET
The spectral characterization of soils is discussed with particular reference to the bidirectional reflectance factor as a quantitative measure of soil spectral properties, the role of soil color, soil parameters affecting soil reflectance, and field characteristics of soil reflectance. Comparisons between laboratory-measured soil spectra and Landsat MSS data have shown good agreement, especially in discriminating relative drainage conditions and organic matter levels in unvegetated soils. The capacity to measure both visible and infrared soil reflectance provides information on other soil characteristics and makes it possible to predict soil response to different management conditions. Field and laboratory soil spectral characterization helps define the extent to which intrinsic spectral information is available from soils as a consequence of their composition and field characteristics.
The purpose of Space Medicine is to ensure mission success by providing quality and comprehensive health care throughout all mission phases to optimize crew health and performance and to prevent negative long-term health consequences. Space flight presents additional hazards and associated risks to crew health, performance, and safety. With an extended human presence in space it is expected that illness and injury will occur on orbit, which may present a significant threat to crew health and performance and to mission success. Maintaining crew health, safety and performance and preventing illness and injury are high priorities necessary for mission success and agency goals. Space flight health care should meet the standards of practice of evidence based clinical medicine. The function of Space Medicine is expected to meet the agency goals as stated in the 1998 NASA Strategic Plan and the priorities established by the Critical Path Roadmap Project. The Critical Path Roadmap Project is an integrated NASA cross-disciplinary strategy to assess, understand, mitigate, and manage the risks associated with long-term exposure to the space flight environment. The evidence based approach to space medicine should be standardized, objective process yielding expected results and establishing clinical practice standards while balancing individual risk with mission (programmatic) risk. The ability to methodically apply available knowledge and expertise to individual and mission health issues will ensure appropriate priorities are assigned and resources are allocated. NASA Space Medicine risk management process is a combined clinical and engineering approach. Competition for weight, power, volume, cost, and crew time must be balanced in making decisions about the care of individual crew with competing agency resources.
This report delves into the critical aspects of grid services provided by solar inverter-based resources (IBRs), with an emphasis on the evolving landscape of microgrids, virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregators, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). As the energy sector undergoes a transformative shift towards more decentralized and resilient grid architectures, understanding the multifaceted risks associated with these technologies becomes paramount. The report categorizes these risks into organizational, technical, and procedural domains, providing a thorough risk assessment framework that stakeholders can utilize to anticipate and mitigate potential issues. In addressing the increasing complexity of grid interconnections, the report highlights the importance of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). By embedding engineering controls and cybersecurity measures into the early stages of system design, this approach aims to fortify grid infrastructure against emerging cyber threats. The analysis includes an exploration of best practices and strategies for integrating CIE principles to enhance grid security and resilience. To provide practical insights, the report conducts a detailed consequence analysis of various grid services and cyber mitigations that can be applied through the interconnection process. This analysis evaluates the potential impacts of different failure modes and vulnerabilities, offering a clear understanding of the consequences that could arise from disruptions within the energy grid. The findings are further enriched by a series of case studies that illustrate real-world scenarios and lessons learned from past incidents. Through this comprehensive examination of grid services and their criticality, the report aims to prepare industry professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of modern energy systems. By providing a comprehensive approach that includes risk assessment, cybersecurity, and consequence analysis, solar stakeholders can more effectively guarantee the reliability, efficiency, and security of the energy grid.