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DOE OSTI2025

A Joint Search for the Electromagnetic Counterpart to the Gravitational-Wave Binary Black-Hole Merger Candidate S250328ae with the Dark Energy Camera and the Prime Focus Spectrograph

The first detection of an optical counterpart to a gravitational wave signal revealed that collaborative efforts between instruments with different specializations provide a unique opportunity to acquire impactful multi-messenger data. We present results of such a joint search with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) and Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) for the optical counterpart of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA event S250328ae, a binary black hole merger candidate of high significance detected at a distance of 511$\pm$82 Mpc and localized within an area of 3 (15) square degrees at 50% (90%) confidence. We observed the 90% confidence area with DECam and identified 36 high-confidence transient candidates after image processing, candidate selection, and candidate vetting. We observed with PFS to obtain optical spectra of DECam candidates, Swift-XRT candidates, and potential host galaxies of S250328ae. In total, 3897 targets were observed by seven pointings covering ~50% of the 90% confidence area. After template fitting and visual inspection, we identified 12 SNe, 159 QSOs, 2975 galaxies, and 131 stars. With the joint observations of DECam and PFS, we found variability in 12 SNe, 139 QSOs, 37 galaxies, and 2 stars. We do not identify any confident optical counterparts, though the association is not ruled out for three variable candidates that are not observed by PFS and 6 QSO candidates without clear variability if the optical counterpart of S250328ae is faint. Despite the lack of confident optical counterparts, this paper serves as a framework for future collaborations between wide-field imagers and multi-object spectrographs to maximize multi-messenger analyses.

Zhang, Haibin [Natl. Astron. Observ. of Japan] (OR↗

DOE OSTI2022

Putting AlphaFold models to work with phenix.process_predicted_model and ISOLDE

AlphaFold has recently become an important tool in providing models for experimental structure determination by X-ray crystallography and cryo-EM. Large parts of the predicted models typically approach the accuracy of experimentally determined structures, although there are frequently local errors and errors in the relative orientations of domains. Importantly, residues in the model of a protein predicted by AlphaFold are tagged with a predicted local distance difference test score, informing users about which regions of the structure are predicted with less confidence. AlphaFold also produces a predicted aligned error matrix indicating its confidence in the relative positions of each pair of residues in the predicted model. The phenix.process_predicted_model tool downweights or removes low-confidence residues and can break a model into confidently predicted domains in preparation for molecular replacement or cryo-EM docking. These confidence metrics are further used in ISOLDE to weight torsion and atom–atom distance restraints, allowing the complete AlphaFold model to be interactively rearranged to match the docked fragments and reducing the need for the rebuilding of connecting regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis, Part 2: GIS methodology

Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) in geothermal exploration originates from a systematic methodology developed within the petroleum industry and is based on a geologic, geophysical, and hydrologic framework of identified geothermal systems. We tailored this methodology to study the geothermal resource potential of the Snake River Plain and surrounding region, but it can be adapted to other geothermal resource settings. We adapted the PFA approach to geothermal resource exploration by cataloging the critical elements controlling exploitable hydrothermal systems, establishing risk matrices that evaluate these elements in terms of both probability of success and level of knowledge, and building a code-based ‘processing model’ to process results. A geographic information system was used to compile a range of different data types, which we refer to as elements (e.g., faults, vents, heat flow, etc.), with distinct characteristics and measures of confidence. Discontinuous discrete data (points, lines, or polygons) for each element were transformed into continuous interpretive 2D grid surfaces called evidence layers. Because different data types have varying uncertainties, most evidence layers have an accompanying confidence layer which reflects spatial variations in these uncertainties. Risk layers, as defined here, are the product of evidence and confidence layers, and are the building blocks used to construct Common Risk Segment (CRS) maps for heat, permeability, and seal, using a weighted sum for permeability and heat, but a different approach with seal. CRS maps quantify the variable risk associated with each of these critical components. In a final step, the three CRS maps were combined into a Composite Common Risk Segment (CCRS) map, using a modified weighted sum, for results that reveal favorable areas for geothermal exploration. Additional maps are also presented that do not mix contributions from evidence and confidence (to allow an isolated view of evidence and confidence), as well as maps that calculate favorability using the product of components instead of a weighted sum (to highlight where all components are present). Our approach helped to identify areas of high geothermal favorability in the western and central Snake River Plain during the first phase of study and helped identify more precise local drilling targets during the second phase of work. By identifying favorable areas, this methodology can help to reduce uncertainty in geothermal energy exploration and development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

uncertainty, radiation risk estimation, Mayak Prod↗

NASA NTRS1975

Decision-related cortical potentials during an auditory signal detection task with cued observation intervals

Cortical-evoked potentials were recorded from human subjects performing an auditory detection task with confidence rating responses. Unlike earlier studies that used similar procedures, the observation interval during which the auditory signal could occur was clearly marked by a visual cue light. By precisely defining the observation interval and, hence, synchronizing all perceptual decisions to the evoked potential averaging epoch, it was possible to demonstrate that high-confidence false alarms are accompanied by late-positive P3 components equivalent to those for equally confident hits. Moreover the hit and false alarm evoked potentials were found to covary similarly with variations in confidence rating and to have similar amplitude distributions over the scalp. In a second experiment, it was demonstrated that correct rejections can be associated with a P3 component larger than that for hits. Thus it was possible to show, within the signal detection paradigm, how the two major factors of decision confidence and expectancy are reflected in the P3 component of the cortical-evoked potential.

Squires, K. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Inference in infinite-dimensional inverse problems - Discretization and duality

Many techniques for solving inverse problems involve approximating the unknown model, a function, by a finite-dimensional 'discretization' or parametric representation. The uncertainty in the computed solution is sometimes taken to be the uncertainty within the parametrization; this can result in unwarranted confidence. The theory of conjugate duality can overcome the limitations of discretization within the 'strict bounds' formalism, a technique for constructing confidence intervals for functionals of the unknown model incorporating certain types of prior information. The usual computational approach to strict bounds approximates the 'primal' problem in a way that the resulting confidence intervals are at most long enough to have the nominal coverage probability. There is another approach based on 'dual' optimization problems that gives confidence intervals with at least the nominal coverage probability. The pair of intervals derived by the two approaches bracket a correct confidence interval. The theory is illustrated with gravimetric, seismic, geomagnetic, and helioseismic problems and a numerical example in seismology.

Stark, Philip B.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Final Results from the BIMA CMB Anisotropy Survey and Search for Signature of the SZ Effect

We report the final results of our study of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) with the BIMA array. Over 1000 hours of observation were dedicated to this project exploring CMB anisotropy on scales between 1' and 2' in eighteen 6'.6 FWHM fields. In the analysis of the CMB power spectrum, the visibility data is divided into two bins corresponding to different angular scales. Modeling the observed excess power as a flat band of average multipole l(sub eff)= 5237, we find deltaT(sup 2)(sub 1) = 220(sup +140)(sub -120) mu K(sup 2) at 68% confidence and deltaT(sup 2)(sub 1) greater than 0 muK(sup 2) with 94.7% confidence. In a second band with average multipole of l(sub eff) = 8748, we find deltaT(sup 2)(sub 2) consistent with zero, and an upper limit 880 muK(sup 2) at 95% confidence. An extensive series of tests and supplemental observations with the VLA provide strong evidence against systematic errors or radio point sources being the source of the observed excess power. The dominant source of anisotropy on these scales is expected to arise from the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect in a population of distant galaxy clusters. If the excess power is due to the SZ effect, we can place constraints on the normalization of the matter power spectrum sigma(sub 8) = 1.03(sup +0.20)(sub -0.29) at 68% confidence. The distribution of pixel fluxes in the BIMA images are found to be consistent with simulated observations of the expected SZ background and rule out instrumental noise or radio sources as the source of the observed excess power with similar confidence to the detection of excess power. Follow-up optical observations to search for galaxy over-densities anti-correlated with flux in the BIMA images, as might be expected from the SZ effect, proved to be inconclusive.

Dawson, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Analysis for Comparing Fatigue Data Based on Johnson-Weibull Parameters

Probabilistic failure analysis is essential when analysis of stress-life (S-N) curves is inconclusive in determining the relative ranking of two or more materials. In 1964, L. Johnson published a methodology for establishing the confidence that two populations of data are different. Simplified algebraic equations for confidence numbers were derived based on the original work of L. Johnson. Using the ratios of mean life, the resultant values of confidence numbers deviated less than one percent from those of Johnson. It is possible to rank the fatigue lives of different materials with a reasonable degree of statistical certainty based on combined confidence numbers. These equations were applied to rotating beam fatigue tests that were conducted on three aluminum alloys at three stress levels each. These alloys were AL 2024, AL 6061, and AL 7075. The results were analyzed and compared using ASTM Standard E739-91 and the Johnson-Weibull analysis. The ASTM method did not statistically distinguish between AL 6010 and AL 7075. Based on the Johnson-Weibull analysis confidence numbers greater than 99 percent, AL 2024 was found to have the longest fatigue life, followed by AL 7075, and then AL 6061. The ASTM Standard and the Johnson-Weibull analysis result in the same stress-life exponent p for each of the three aluminum alloys at the median or L(sub 50) lives.

Hendricks, Robert C.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Using the Monte Carlo Method to Evaluate the Reliability of Screening Multifamily Housing for Radon

When screening for radon in a multifamily housing complex using a fixed sample density (e.g., testing 1 in 10 (10%) or 1 in 4 units (25%)), the statistical confidence is dependent upon the assumed elevated radon frequency. For example, testing 25% of units in a complex estimated to have eight units with elevated radon levels will provide 90% confidence. However, if it is assumed that, in the same complex, there are only three units with elevated radon levels, the confidence drops to around 58% for the same sample density. Furthermore, in the previous example, if elevated radon levels are not found during the screening, all that can be stated is that the screening provides 90% confidence that there are no more than seven units in the complex with elevated radon levels. To more fully illustrate this uncertainty, ten separate multifamily housing radon data sets with 1 to 10 units with radon levels ≥4 pCi/L (Table 1) were selected for analysis using the Monte Carlo statistical method. Unlike other mathematically based statistical approaches, the Monte Carlo statistical method relies on repeated analysis of randomly selected data. from a 100% sampled complex at various sample densities. Success for each simulation is defined as finding at least one unit with elevated radon levels. In this statistical method, confidence in the overarching conclusion can be greatly enhanced by repeating the simulated screening hundreds or even thousands of times. For this study, each of the ten data sets was simulated 1,000 times. For each simulation, the data set was randomized three times before the fixed percentage of data was selected.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Custom Machine to Convey Radiologically Impacted Cohesive Soils to the Orion ScanSortSM System - 20382

An established method to reduce the volume of material required to be disposed of as radioactive waste is conveyor-based sorting of potentially radiologically impacted soils. With the Orion ScanSortSM system, potentially impacted soils are conveyed beneath radiation detectors and sorted into above and below criteria bins based on the detectors' response. Confident measurements can only be efficiently achieved when the soil column being conveyed has a reasonably consistent geometry. Highly cohesive soils present a very significant challenge as they tend to clump and adhere to the conveyor hopper, strike-off bar, and belt skirting. This causes voids and valleys in the soil column that affect the measurement geometry and reduce the confidence in the measurement. The reduction in confidence necessitates a longer residence time (i.e. reduction in conveyor belt speed and processing rates) or that the soils in highly unfavorable geometries be dispositioned as impacted or segregated for resurvey (should site logistics support that option). These outcomes may increase the volume of material required to be dispositioned as radiological waste and have a negative impact on project cost and schedule. To minimize impact to sorting operations, Wood designed and built a customized Extruder, to optimize the soil column prior to assay. The design was developed and refined to minimize the volume of highly cohesive soils presented in highly unfavorable geometries in the soil column in order to confidently assess and disposition such soils in a high-production environment. The Extruder is a customized 90 cm wide flat conveyor that has an oversized hopper with a pair of motor-driven rollers that force the soils in the hopper through an opening of adjustable height. The soils are extruded through the opening to produce a soil column that is ∼75 cm wide and ∼8-18 cm deep with a design rate of 225 metric tons/hr. The Extruder was recently deployed with the Orion ScanSort{sup SM} System to a site in northeast Ohio. The site has highly cohesive soils that result from the weathering of glacial sediments and consist of clay and clay loam, resulting in poor drainage and high moisture content. The project infrastructure only supported two bins of material (above and below criteria), which necessitated that soils with unfavorable geometries be discharged into the above criteria bin, along with material determined to have been contaminated. The Extruder was extremely successful in producing a stable soil column with favorable geometries for radiological assay. During production, less than 0.5% (by mass) of the soils processed were presented in unsatisfactory geometries requiring disposition as radioactive waste. The Extruder did not get clogged due to the cohesive soils (as is typical with conventional conveyors) and required very little maintenance, again minimizing impacts to sorting operations. The conveyor belt speed was operated at 14 cm/s with a typical belt loading of ∼109 kg/m resulting in a mean process rate of ∼49 metric tons/hr. The process rate was constrained by other project logistics, rather than by the capabilities of the Extruder, which was operated at less than 20% of the maximum design speed (75 cm/s). It is concluded that the Extruder is highly likely to produce a stable highly cohesive soil column suitable for efficient and confident radiological assay in production environments of 250 short tons/hr or more. The Extruder has the capability to drastically reduce the duration and costs of projects with radiologically impacted highly cohesive soils. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for CP violation in t$\overline{\textrm{t}}$H and tH production in multilepton channels in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

The charge-parity (CP) structure of the Yukawa interaction between the Higgs (H) boson and the top quark is measured in a data sample enriched in the t$\overline{t}$H and tH associated production, using 138 fb -1 of data collected in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. The study targets events where the H boson decays via H → WW or H → ττ and the top quarks decay via t → Wb: the W bosons decay either leptonically or hadronically, and final states characterized by the presence of at least two leptons are studied. Machine learning techniques are applied to these final states to enhance the separation of CP -even from CP -odd scenarios. Two-dimensional confidence regions are set on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, which are respectively defined as the CP -even and CP -odd top-Higgs Yukawa coupling modifiers. No significant fractional CP -odd contributions, parameterized by the quantity |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| are observed; the parameter is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.59 with an interval of (0.24, 0.81) at 68% confidence level. The results are combined with previous results covering the H → ZZ and H → γγ decay modes, yielding two- and one-dimensional confidence regions on $κ$ t and $\widetilde{k}$t, while |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| is determined to be |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.28 with an interval of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| < 0.55 at 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model CP -even prediction of |$f^{Htt}_{CP}$| = 0.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Search for direct production of electroweakinos in final states with missing transverse momentum and a Higgs boson decaying into photons in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for a chargino-neutralino pair decaying via the 125 GeV Higgs boson into photons is presented. The study is based on the data collected between 2015 and 2018 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No significant excess over the expected background is observed. Upper limits at 95% confidence level for a massless $χ$~ $^0_1$ are set on several electroweakino production cross-sections and the visible cross-section for beyond the Standard Model processes. In the context of simplified supersymmetric models, 95% confidence-level limits of up to 310 GeV in m($χ$~$^±_1$/ $χ$~ $^0_2$), where m($χ$~ $^0_1$) = 0.5 GeV, are set. Limits at 95% confidence level are also set on the $χ$~$^±_1$/ $χ$~ $^0_2$ cross-section in the mass plane of m($χ$~$^±_1$/ $χ$~ $^0_2$) and m($χ$~ $^0_1$), and on scenarios with gravitino as the lightest supersymmetric particle. Upper limits at the 95% confidence-level are set on the higgsino production cross-section. Higgsino masses below 380 GeV are excluded for the case of the higgsino fully decaying into a Higgs boson and a gravitino.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A search for decays of the Higgs boson to invisible particles in events with a top-antitop quark pair or a vector boson in proton-proton collisions at $$\sqrt{s} = 13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V} $$

A search for decays to invisible particles of Higgs bosons produced in association with a top-antitop quark pair or a vector boson, which both decay to a fully hadronic final state, has been performed using proton-proton collision data collected at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV by the CMS experiment at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138fb -1 . The 95% confidence level upper limit set on the branching fraction of the 125 GeV Higgs boson to invisible particles, B(H → inv), is 0.54 (0.39 expected), assuming standard model production cross sections. The results of this analysis are combined with previous B(H → inv) searches carried out at $\sqrt{s} = 7$, 8, and 13 TeV in complementary production modes. The combined upper limit at 95% confidence level on B(H → inv) is 0.15 (0.08 expected).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hawai‘i Play Fairway (Final Report)

Most of Hawai'i's geothermal resources are blind—their manifestations, such as hot springs and steam vents, do not appear on the ground surface because the heated water flows far below. With the exception of $K\bar{i}lauea East Rift Zone$, in most areas of Hawai'i, high lateral permeability in the first kilometer below ground surface prevents surface thermal features from developing. As a methodology for discovering these blind resources, Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) involves finding potential locations of blind hydrothermal systems and describing potential geothermal sources in rift-zone settings. Using the PFA to find Hawai'i's geothermal resources, the University of Hawai'i (UH) conducted the Hawai‘i Play Fairway Project, Hawai'i's first statewide geothermal resource assessment since 1985. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Hawai'i Play Fairway Project provided an updated resource assessment, a roadmap for additional exploration activities, and the identification of areas for further exploration. Benefitting from UH's core competency in earth sciences and experienced geothermal researchers, the project comprised three phases. During the first phase, the team identified, compiled, and ranked existing geologic, groundwater, and geophysical datasets relevant to subsurface heat, fluid and permeability. Using a Bayesian statistical approach, the team developed a statistical methodology to integrate these data into a resource probability map. The team evaluated the confidence in the probability value and considered development viability of areas with geothermal resources. With these analyses, the team identified 10 locations in the Hawaiian Islands for exploration activities. For the second phase, the team collected new groundwater data in 10 locations across the state and new geophysical data on $L\bar{a}na‘i, Maui$, and central Hawai'i Island and modeled topographically induced stress to better characterize subsurface permeability. Analyzing the subsurface stresses, the team evaluated the potential for fracture-induced permeability. The team inverted the MT and gravity data to produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on $L\bar{a}na‘i$, across $Haleakal\bar{a}'s$ SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawai‘i Island). The team developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The team incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. Through combining data from the first and second phases, the team determined locations for further exploration during the third phase. For MT and gravity surveys, the team recommended $Kaua'i's$ $L\bar{i}hu'e$ $Basin$, the east rift of $Maui's$ $Haleakal\bar{a}$ volcano, and the southwest rift of Hawai'i Island's Mauna Loa volcano. The MT and gravity surveys aimed to enable improved confidence in the resource potential in these locations. For drilling deep groundwater well(s), the team recommended Southeast Mauna Kea and $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$. During the third phase, further exploration involved drilling a groundwater well in $L\bar{a}na's$ $P\bar{a}l\bar{a}wai$ $Basin$ and performing more geophysical surveys. We deepened an existing water well proximal to our target area on $L\bar{a}na'i$ due to funding constraints that precluded us from spudding a new well that would exceed 1km depth. Drilling was preceded by a number of substantial elements including: writing an Environmental Assessment and the subsequent legal process, performance of deviation logging, lowering a camera down the well, coordinating site preparation with $P\bar{u}lama$ $L\bar{a}na'i$, shipping the UH-owned rig interisland, procuring supplies, and leading 3 community meetings on $L\bar{a}na'i$. Drilling occurred 24/7 the entire month of June 2019 over which time $L\bar{a}na'i$ $Well$ 10 was deepened from 427 m to 1057 m, with continuous core collected. We measured a roughly linear temperature gradient averaging 42°C/km and a maximum bottom hole temperature of 66°C. This gradient is more than twice the background for Hawai'i and within a range of gradients measured in this depth range for some exploration wells within KERZ. We consider these results encouraging for $L\bar{a}na'i's$ resource potential and recommend following with a slim hole within $L\bar{a}na'i's$ caldera (our target zone) to ~ 2 km. Further, the positive implications such results have for the island of O‘ahu are substantial - the shield stage of O'ahu's volcanoes ended 1-2 My earlier. However, O'ahu uses more electricity than the rest of the islands combined, and the utility recently called for 500-700MW of firm, dispatchable renewable electricity on O'ahu by 2033. In Phase 3, we also collected limited new encouraging groundwater data, and updated our thoughts on the probabilities of fluid and permeability at resource depths (Pr F = 1; Pr P = mostly unconstrained). Ultimately, we advocate for using our final probability of heat, and confidence in this probability, to drive the next phase of exploration. We contend further development of geothermal in Hawai‘i will enable the state to achieve its 100% renewable policy objective and Hawai'i to transition off of fossil fuels through geothermal discovery and development. The project not only produced a large amount of data and expanded the existing knowledge of Hawai'i's geothermal resources, but also produced publications, theses, presentations, core photos, datasets, media reports, television interviews, community events, and a blog. Students and new professionals benefitted from the project's hands-on research experiences and educational opportunities and earned awards and recognition.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress in Constraining Nuclear Symmetry Energy Using Neutron Star Observables Since GW170817

The density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy is among the most uncertain parts of the Equation of State (EOS) of dense neutron-rich nuclear matter. It is currently poorly known especially at suprasaturation densities partially because of our poor knowledge about isovector nuclear interactions at short distances. Because of its broad impacts on many interesting issues, pinning down the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy has been a longstanding and shared goal of both astrophysics and nuclear physics. New observational data of neutron stars including their masses, radii, and tidal deformations since GW170817 have helped improve our knowledge about nuclear symmetry energy, especially at high densities. Based on various model analyses of these new data by many people in the nuclear astrophysics community, while our brief review might be incomplete and biased unintentionally, we learned in particular the following: (1) The slope parameter L of nuclear symmetry energy at saturation density ρ0 of nuclear matter from 24 new analyses of neutron star observables was about L≈57.7±19 MeV at a 68% confidence level, consistent with its fiducial value from surveys of over 50 earlier analyses of both terrestrial and astrophysical data within error bars. (2) The curvature Ksym of nuclear symmetry energy at ρ0 from 16 new analyses of neutron star observables was about Ksym≈−107±88 MeV at a 68% confidence level, in very good agreement with the systematics of earlier analyses. (3) The magnitude of nuclear symmetry energy at 2ρ0, i.e., Esym(2ρ0)≈51±13 MeV at a 68% confidence level, was extracted from nine new analyses of neutron star observables, consistent with the results from earlier analyses of heavy-ion reactions and the latest predictions of the state-of-the-art nuclear many-body theories. (4) While the available data from canonical neutron stars did not provide tight constraints on nuclear symmetry energy at densities above about 2ρ0, the lower radius boundary R2.01=12.2 km from NICER’s very recent observation of PSR J0740+6620 of mass 2.08±0.07M⊙ and radius R=12.2–16.3 km at a 68% confidence level set a tight lower limit for nuclear symmetry energy at densities above 2ρ0. (5) Bayesian inferences of nuclear symmetry energy using models encapsulating a first-order hadron–quark phase transition from observables of canonical neutron stars indicated that the phase transition shifted appreciably both L and Ksym to higher values, but with larger uncertainties compared to analyses assuming no such phase transition. (6) The high-density behavior of nuclear symmetry energy significantly affected the minimum frequency necessary to rotationally support GW190814’s secondary component of mass (2.50–2.67) M⊙ as the fastest and most massive pulsar discovered so far. Overall, thanks to the hard work of many people in the astrophysics and nuclear physics community, new data of neutron star observations since the discovery of GW170817 have significantly enriched our knowledge about the symmetry energy of dense neutron-rich nuclear matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1978

Automotive Stirling engine development program

The Ford/DOE automotive Stirling engine development program is directed towards establishing the technological and developmental base that would enable a decision on whether an engineering program should be directed at Stirling engine production. The fuel economy assessment aims to achieve, with a high degree of confidence, the ERDA proposal estimate of 20.6 MPG (gasoline) for a 4500 lb 1WC Stirling engine passenger car. The current M-H fuel economy projection for the 170 HP Stirling engine is 15.7 MPG. The confidence level for this projection is 32%. A confidence level of 29% is projected for a 22.1 MPG estimate. If all of the planned analyses and test work is accomplished at the end of the one year effort, and the projected improvements are substantiated, the confidence levels would rise to 59% for the 20.6 MPG projection and 54% for the 22.1 MPG projection. Progress achieved thus far during the fuel economy assessment is discussed.

Kitzner, E. W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Search for X-ray polarization in the Crab pulsar

Results of a search for X-ray polarization in the Crab pulsar are presented which were obtained by observing the pulsar at 2.6 and 5.2 keV with identical X-ray polarimeters aboard OSO 8. The polarization in different portions of the X-ray light curve is analyzed, the polarization contribution due to the nebula is removed, and the results of the analysis are given for isolated portions of both the primary pulse and the interpulse at 2.6 and 5.2 keV. No evidence for X-ray polarization is found at the 99% confidence level; 3-sigma upper limits to the polarization at 2.6 keV are given along with the largest polarization allowed at 5.2 keV by the 99% confidence counter. It is noted that the trailing edge of the interpulse at 2.6 keV is 26% polarized at the 92% confidence level, while the 5.2-keV polarization measurement of 40% in the leading edge of the primary pulse is different from zero at 96% confidence. X-ray and optical polarization measurements are compared.

Silver, E. H.↗