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NASA NTRS1994

Frequency-Domain Identification With Composite Curve Fitting

Improved method of parameter identification based on decomposing single wide-band model into two or more component systems in parallel. Each component model predominates in specific frequency range. Wide-band mathematical model of system identified as two narrow-band models: one containing most of information on high-frequency components of dynamics, and one containing most of information on low-frequency components. Applicable to diverse systems, including vibrating structures, electronic circuits, and control systems.

Bayard, David S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Multibody model reduction by component mode synthesis and component cost analysis

The classical assumed-modes method is widely used in modeling the dynamics of flexible multibody systems. According to the method, the elastic deformation of each component in the system is expanded in a series of spatial and temporal functions known as modes and modal coordinates, respectively. This paper focuses on the selection of component modes used in the assumed-modes expansion. A two-stage component modal reduction method is proposed combining Component Mode Synthesis (CMS) with Component Cost Analysis (CCA). First, each component model is truncated such that the contribution of the high frequency subsystem to the static response is preserved. Second, a new CMS procedure is employed to assemble the system model and CCA is used to further truncate component modes in accordance with their contribution to a quadratic cost function of the system output. The proposed method is demonstrated with a simple example of a flexible two-body system.

Spanos, J. T.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Design and performance analysis of gas sorption compressors

Compressor kinetics based on gas adsorption and desorption processes by charcoal and for gas absorption and desorption processes by LaNi5 were analyzed using a two-phase model and a three-component model, respectively. The assumption of the modeling involved thermal and mechanical equilibria between phases or among the components. The analyses predicted performance well for compressors which have heaters located outside the adsorbent or the absorbent bed. For the rapidly-cycled compressor, where the heater was centrally located, only the transient pressure compared well with the experimental data.

Chan, C. K.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Engine System Model Development for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

In order to design, analyze, and evaluate conceptual Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) engine systems, an improved NTP design and analysis tool has been developed. The NTP tool utilizes the Rocket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) system tool and many of the routines from the Enabler reactor model found in Nuclear Engine System Simulation (NESS). Improved non-nuclear component models and an external shield model were added to the tool. With the addition of a nearly complete system reliability model, the tool will provide performance, sizing, and reliability data for NERVA-Derived NTP engine systems. A new detailed reactor model is also being developed and will replace Enabler. The new model will allow more flexibility in reactor geometry and include detailed thermal hydraulics and neutronics models. A description of the reactor, component, and reliability models is provided. Another key feature of the modeling process is the use of comprehensive spreadsheets for each engine case. The spreadsheets include individual worksheets for each subsystem with data, plots, and scaled figures, making the output very useful to each engineering discipline. Sample performance and sizing results with the Enabler reactor model are provided including sensitivities. Before selecting an engine design, all figures of merit must be considered including the overall impacts on the vehicle and mission. Evaluations based on key figures of merit of these results and results with the new reactor model will be performed. The impacts of clustering and external shielding will also be addressed. Over time, the reactor model will be upgraded to design and analyze other NTP concepts with CERMET and carbide fuel cores.

Nelson, Karl W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Finite Element Modeling of the NASA Langley Aluminum Testbed Cylinder

The NASA Langley Aluminum Testbed Cylinder (ATC) was designed to serve as a universal structure for evaluating structural acoustic codes, modeling techniques and optimization methods used in the prediction of aircraft interior noise. Finite element models were developed for the components of the ATC based on the geometric, structural and material properties of the physical test structure. Numerically predicted modal frequencies for the longitudinal stringer, ring frame and dome component models, and six assembled ATC configurations were compared with experimental modal survey data. The finite element models were updated and refined, using physical parameters, to increase correlation with the measured modal data. Excellent agreement, within an average 1.5% to 2.9%, was obtained between the predicted and measured modal frequencies of the stringer, frame and dome components. The predictions for the modal frequencies of the assembled component Configurations I through V were within an average 2.9% and 9.1%. Finite element modal analyses were performed for comparison with 3 psi and 6 psi internal pressurization conditions in Configuration VI. The modal frequencies were predicted by applying differential stiffness to the elements with pressure loading and creating reduced matrices for beam elements with offsets inside external superelements. The average disagreement between the measured and predicted differences for the 0 psi and 6 psi internal pressure conditions was less than 0.5%. Comparably good agreement was obtained for the differences between the 0 psi and 3 psi measured and predicted internal pressure conditions.

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Botswana water and surface energy balance research program. Part 2: Large scale moisture and passive microwaves

The Botswana water and surface energy balance research program was developed to study and evaluate the integrated use of multispectral satellite remote sensing for monitoring the hydrological status of the Earth's surface. The research program consisted of two major, mutually related components: a surface energy balance modeling component, built around an extensive field campaign; and a passive microwave research component which consisted of a retrospective study of large scale moisture conditions and Nimbus scanning multichannel microwave radiometer microwave signatures. The integrated approach of both components are explained in general and activities performed within the passive microwave research component are summarized. The microwave theory is discussed taking into account: soil dielectric constant, emissivity, soil roughness effects, vegetation effects, optical depth, single scattering albedo, and wavelength effects. The study site is described. The soil moisture data and its processing are considered. The relation between observed large scale soil moisture and normalized brightness temperatures is discussed. Vegetation characteristics and inverse modeling of soil emissivity is considered.

Vandegriend, A. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrating Hierarchical System Development With the Common Community Physics Package Single‐Column Model: A Case Study Over the Southern Great Plains

This study demonstrates a specific application of the hierarchical system development (HSD) approach to investigate, analyze, and attribute model issues within the Unified Forecast System (UFS), with a focus on process isolation. By evaluating a non‐precipitating, shallow cumulus case at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site in the UFS global forecast against the observation, the investigation identifies a warmer and deeper daytime convective planetary boundary layer (PBL) and misrepresented nocturnal PBL transition. Hypothesis testing, which employs the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) single‐column model (SCM) and uses the same physics as the UFS global model, confirms that these issues are attributed to the model physics and initialization. Specifically, misrepresented PBL processes are linked to problematic surface condition and a lack of cloud formation, which may stem from deficiencies in PBL and cloud microphysics parameterizations and their interactions. The UFS initial condition contributes to an earlier, excessively collapsed daytime convective boundary layer and a lack of decoupling between the stable boundary layer and residual layer late in the afternoon. This work introduces an avenue for the community to engage with the application of HSD, along with the CCPP and CCPP SCM, to understand the interplay of model physics, disentangle the roles of model components, as well as facilitate model and forecast improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal management of electric hotel loads in mild hybrid heavy duty truck

Here, the problem of engine idling for heavy-duty trucks has been under study for decades with Auxiliary Power Units (APUs) and Truck Stop Electrification (TSE) as the most compelling solutions. With the electrification of trucks approaching feasibility in terms of cost-effective technology, hybridization offers another “degree of freedom” to tackle the problem. Here, this work aims at exploiting a battery pack of a 48 V mild-hybrid heavy-duty truck to store sufficient onboard energy for powering the auxiliary loads during the hoteling. This problem is not trivial, as the battery packs typically cannot recover the entire energy required through regeneration alone; hence an optimal energy management strategy needs to be employed to charge the battery through the engine during drive operation. This strategy optimizes powertrain performances among the four modes: (i) Engine of Coasting (EOC), (ii) Regeneration by braking, (iii) Regeneration by engine, and (iv) engine idling. This paper presents the development of a Dynamic Programming (DP) framework that employs a multi-objective cost function to minimize the fuel consumption and maximize the regeneration using the above-mentioned four modes. A typical heavy-duty truck drive cycle is used to represent the drive phase, with mandatory hoteling stops as per regulations. A comprehensive powertrain model is developed using validated components’ model. The DP employs two state variables: battery State-of-Charge (SOC) and engine mode, and three control inputs: (i) the engine ON–OFF state, (ii) clutch engagement state, and (iii) power request at the Electric Machine (EM) for calculating optimal SOC trajectory. The framework also tackles rapid engine ON–OFF scenarios to avoid the challenges associated with DP and the compromises in fuel cost with those approaches. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested for potential fuel savings on two different battery packs by performing the full cycle simulations. The results show 6.47% of fuel consumption reduction as compared to traditional APU-based heavy-duty truck.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deffe: A Data-efficient Framework for Performance Characterization in Domain-Specific Computing

Predicting workload performance is a crucial task for many architecture and system research. In this paper we present Dee, a framework to estimate the workload performances under varying architectural configurations. The infrastructure component of Deffe is based on scalable and easy-to-use open-source software components. By casting the performance modeling as transfer learning tasks, the modeling component of Deffe can leverage the learned knowledge on one workload, and “transfer” it to a new workload. Extensive experimental results show that the method can achieve superior testing accuracy with an effective reduction of 32-80x in terms of the amount of required training data.

Liu, Frank↗

DOE OSTI2021

On AI Prediction of Hydrological Processes Based on Integration of Retrospective and Forecasting ML Techniques

Focus areas: (1) Data assimilation enabled by machine learning, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, comprising a hierarchy of models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

LANL Institutional Computing Report: Towards a digital twin of Arctic sea ice

Our goal is to develop a digital twin of Arctic sea ice that combines high-resolution predictive modeling with observational products. This effort will provide an optimized model for use in seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasting and a tool for policymakers to better anticipate, plan for, and mitigate the national security impacts of rapidly changing Arctic conditions. The modeling component uses the Discrete Element Model for Sea Ice (DEMSI), which uses discrete elements to represent the sea ice with an explicit representation of forces between them.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Diffuse cosmic gamma rays - Present status of theory and observations.

Theoretical interpretations are proposed for recent positive diffuse gamma-ray flux findings with energy measurements up to the 100 MeV range. Several models of isotropic gamma ray production are considered. Diagrams are plotted to compare the observed background spectrum with (1) an electron bremsstrahlung model, (2) a two-component model involving neutral pion production and decay in cosmic-ray interactions at redshifts up to 100, and (3) a theoretical model involving matter-antimatter annihilation. New results on the diffuse flux from the galaxy are viewed as supporting the pion-decay origin hypothesis for gamma-radiation above 100 MeV.

Stecker, F. W.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Aerodynamic characteristics of a fixed arrow-wing supersonic cruise aircraft at Mach numbers of 2.30, 2.70, and 2.95

Tests were conducted in the Langley Unitary Plan wind tunnel at Mach numbers of 2.30. 2.70, and 2.95 to determine the performance, static stability, and control characteristics of a model of a fixed-wing supersonic cruise aircraft with a design Mach Number of 2.70 (SCAT 15-F-9898). The configuration had a 74 deg swept warped wing with a reflexed trailing edge and four engine nacelles mounted below the reflexed portion of the wing. A number of variations in the basic configuration were investigated; they included the effect of wing leading edge radius, the effect of various model components, and the effect of model control deflections.

Morris, O. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The effects of compliant walls on transition and turbulence

Two theoretical approaches to the phenomenon of drag reduction by a compliant wall are proposed. One is to study the limit cycle oscillations of the Navier-Stokes equations for a boundary layer flow over a compliant wall or a Poiseuille flow in a channel with a compliant wall. The other is a complementary study of a simpler, sequential model, which partially decouples the fluid and wall motions. In this approach, a 'Total Model' is constructed from suitable component models. While the first study is more rigorously based, it will be initially limited, by computational constraints, to relatively low Reynolds numbers. The second, more approximate approach, will allow consideration of a fully developed turbulent flow. The Total Model will predict the compliant wall motion accurately, but will not per se be sufficient to predict the skin friction drag. However, once the wall motion is known, the skin friction drag and the pressure drag can be computed separately, using one of the existing models.

Dowell, E. H.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Turbulent and directed plasma motions in solar flares

An improved method for fitting asymmetric soft X-ray line profiles from solar flares is presented. A two-component model is used where one component represents the total emission from directed upflow plasma and the other the emission from the plasma at rest. Unlike previous methods, the width of the moving component is independent from that of the stationary component. Time variations of flare plasma characteristics (i.e., temperature, emission measure of moving and stationary plasma, upflow and turbulent velocities) are derived from the Ca XIX and Fe XXV spectra recorded by the Bent Crystal Spectrometer on the Solar Maximum Mission. The fitting technique provides a statistical estimation for the uncertainties in the fitting parameters. The relationship between the directed and turbulent motions has been studied, and a correlation of the random and directed motions has been found in some flares with intensive plasma upflows. Mean temperatures of the upflowing and stationary plasmas are compared for the first time from ratios of calcium to iron X-ray line intensities. Finally, evidence for turbulent motions and the possibility of plasma upflow late into the decay phase is presented and discussed.

Fludra, A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A software system for laser design and analysis

A laser-material database and laser-modeling software system for designing lasers for laser-based Light Detection And Ranging (LIDAR) systems are presented. The software system consists of three basic sections: the database, laser models, and interface software. The database contains the physical parameters of laser, optical, and nonlinear materials required by laser models. The models include efficiency calculations, electrooptical component models, resonator, amplifier, and oscillator models, and miscellaneous models. The interface software provides a user-friendly interface between the user and his personal data files, the database, and models. The structure of the software system is essentially in place, while future plans call for upgrading the computer hardware and software in order to support a multiuser multitask environment.

Cross, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Finite and Boundary Element Modeling of the NASA Langley Aluminum Testbed Cylinder (ATC)

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.↗