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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 181 records · Page 10

EVs@Scale Next-Gen Profiles - EV Profile Capture 2024

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium Next-Gen Profiles (NGP) project, the profile capture and analysis of production electric vehicles undergoing high power charging (HPC) is conducted over a wide range of conditions to explore variance and performance. Charge session parameters are collected from both the electric vehicle (EV) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at a rate of 10Hz and entered into a time-series database for analysis. These charge profiles are captured under nominal and off-nominal conditions, exploring the impact of battery state of charge (SOC), battery temperature, vehicle condition, smart charge management (SCM), and EVSE limitations. Nominal conditions are defined to be ideal conditions that should transfer the maximum allowable energy in the minimum possible amount of time. Nominal condition profiles are compared across EVs to characterize state-of-the-art EV charging performance against one another. Off-nominal condition profiles are compared against its nominal condition profile counterpart to highlight the variance across less desirable starting conditions within a single EV. This EV Profile Capture 2024 report stands as an update from the EV Profile Capture 2023 report to include the additional EV & EVSE assets tested and analyzed in 2024. The major updates within this report include the addition of three next-generation electric vehicles, added test cases, and further analysis. This expansion of analysis includes power profiles, power distribution, quantifying SOC, energy and range performance, EVSE limitation impacts, boost converter performance, etc. Additionally, NGP time-series data has been used as input towards three national laboratory-led grid modelling efforts: ANL’s IEEE-37 HIL model, INL’s Caldera model, and NREL’s EVI-X model. A summary of these platforms and how NGP has worked to improve their effectiveness has also been added to this years’ report.

Thurston, Sam↗

Broadband integrated polarization splitter and rotator using subwavelength grating claddings

We present a broadband integrated photonic polarization splitter and rotator (PSR) using adiabatically tapered coupled waveguides with subwavelength grating (SWG) claddings. The PSR adiabatically rotates and splits the fundamental transverse-magnetic (TM 0 ) input to the fundamental transverse-electric (TE 0 ) mode in the coupler waveguide, while passing the TE 0 input through the same waveguide. The SWGs work as an anisotropic metamaterial and facilitate modal conversions, making the PSR efficient and broadband. We rigorously present our design approaches in each section and show the SWG effect by comparing with and without the SWG claddings. The coupling coefficients in each segment explicitly show a stronger coupling effect when the SWGs are included, confirmed by the coupled-mode theory simulations. The full numerical simulation shows that the SWG-PSR operates at 1500–1750 nm (≈250 nm) wavelengths with an extinction ratio larger than 20 dB, confirmed by the experiment for the 1490–1590 nm range. The insertion losses are below 1.3 dB. Since our PSR is designed based on adiabatical mode evolution, the proposed PSR is expected to be tolerant to fabrication variations and should be broadly applicable to polarization management in photonic integrated circuits.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "The Effects of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Gridded Meteorological Forcing on Watershed Hydrological Responses" (Shuai et al., 2022 HESS)

This data package contains the model inputs and outputs used in "The Effects of Spatial and Temporal Resolution of Gridded Meteorological Forcing on Watershed Hydrological Responses" (Shuai et al., 2022 HESS). The data.zip file contains the data used to drive the model simulations. The model.zip file contains the XML input file for ATS. The notebook.zip file contains the Jupyter notebooks for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures.zip file contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript.Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (10s of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow, and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) -- Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30% of the watershed area). However, the 4 km resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications on model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Indirect determination of neutron-capture cross sections for Sm isotopes

Neutron-capture cross sections in the energy range of 0.01–10 MeV for Sm 146 , 148 , 150 , 152 nuclei were calculated using the γ -ray strength and level density functions extracted from the Oslo-type experiments. The uncertainties in the cross-section values were determined using a Monte Carlo method. For the Sm 148 , 150 , 152 isotopes, the calculated cross sections are in a good agreement with the existing experimental data and for the Sm 146 nucleus, an experimental ( n , γ ) cross section is reported for the first time. The results are compared with the ENDF, EAF, and TENDL evaluations. Maxwellian-averaged cross sections were also calculated using the same input γ SF and LD functions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The effects of spatial and temporal resolution of gridded meteorological forcing on watershed hydrological responses

Abstract. Meteorological forcing plays a critical role in accurately simulating the watershed hydrological cycle. With the advancement of high-performance computing and the development of integrated watershed models, simulating the watershed hydrological cycle at high temporal (hourly to daily) and spatial resolution (tens of meters) has become efficient and computationally affordable. These hyperresolution watershed models require high resolution of meteorological forcing as model input to ensure the fidelity and accuracy of simulated responses. In this study, we utilized the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model, to simulate surface and subsurface flow and land surface processes using unstructured meshes at the Coal Creek Watershed near Crested Butte (Colorado). We compared simulated watershed hydrologic responses including streamflow and distributed variables such as evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent (SWE), and groundwater table driven by three publicly available, gridded meteorological forcings (GMFs) – Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries (Daymet), the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). By comparing various spatial resolutions (ranging from 400 m to 4 km) of PRISM, the simulated streamflow only becomes marginally worse when spatial resolution of meteorological forcing is coarsened to 4 km (or 30 % of the watershed area). However, the 4 km-resolution has much worse performance than finer resolution in spatially distributed variables such as SWE. Using the temporally disaggregated PRISM, we compared models forced by different temporal resolutions (hourly to daily), and sub-daily resolution preserves the dynamic watershed responses (e.g., diurnal fluctuation of streamflow) that are absent in results forced by daily resolution. Conversely, the simulated streamflow shows better performance using daily resolution compared to that using sub-daily resolution. Our findings suggest that the choice of GMF and its spatiotemporal resolution depends on the quantity of interest and its spatial and temporal scale, which may have important implications for model calibration and watershed management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Weak neutral current axial form factor using $ \left(\overline{\nu}\right)\nu $-nucleon scattering and lattice QCD inputs

We present a determination of the neutral current weak axial charge $G$ $^{Z}_{A}$(0) = –0.654(3) stat (5) sys using the strange quark axial charge $G$ $^{s}_{A}$(0) calculated with lattice QCD. We then perform a phenomenological analysis, where we combine the strange quark electromagnetic form factor from lattice QCD with (anti)neutrino-nucleon scattering differential cross section from MiniBooNE experiments in a momentum transfer region 0.24 ≲ Q 2 ≲ 0.71 GeV 2 to determine the neutral current weak axial form factor $G$ $^{Z}_{A}$(Q 2 ) in the range of 0 ≲ Q 2 ≤ 1 GeV 2 . This yields a phenomenological value of $G$ $^{Z}_{A}$(0) = –0.687(89)stat(40)sys. The value of $G$ $^{Z}_{A}$(0) constrained by the lattice QCD calculation of $G$ $^{s}_{A}$(0), when compared to its phenomenological determination, provides a significant improvement in precision and accuracy and can be used to provide a constraint on the fit to $G$ $^{Z}_{A}$(Q 2 ) for Q 2 > 0. This constrained fit leads to an unambiguous determination of (anti)neutrino-nucleon neutral current elastic scattering differential cross section near Q 2 = 0 and can play an important role in numerically isolating nuclear effects in this region. We show a consistent description of $G$ $^{Z}_{A}$(Q 2 ) obtained from the (anti)neutrino-nucleon scattering cross section data requires a nonzero contribution of the strange quark electromagnetic form factor. We demonstrate the robustness of our analysis by providing a post-diction of the BNL E734 experimental data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

ANN-based ground motion model for Turkey using stochastic simulation of earthquakes

SUMMARY Turkey is characterized by a high level of seismic activity attributed to its complex tectonic structure. The country has a dense network to record earthquake ground motions; however, to study previous earthquakes and to account for potential future ones, ground motion simulations are required. Ground motion simulation techniques offer an alternative means of generating region-specific time-series data for locations with limited seismic networks or regions with seismic data gaps, facilitating the study of potential catastrophic earthquakes. In this research, a local ground motion model (GMM) for Turkey is developed using region-specific simulated records, thus constructing a homogeneous data set. The simulations employ the stochastic finite-fault approach and utilize validated input-model parameters in distinct regions, namely Afyon, Erzincan, Duzce, Istanbul and Van. To overcome the limitations of linear regression-based models, artificial neural network is used to establish the form of equations and coefficients. The predictive input parameters encompass fault mechanism (FM), focal depth (FD), moment magnitude (Mw), Joyner and Boore distance (RJB) and average shear wave velocity in the top 30 m (Vs30). The data set comprises 7359 records with Mw ranging between 5.0 and 7.5 and RJB ranging from 0 to 272 km. The results are presented in terms of spectral ordinates within the period range of 0.03–2.0 s, as well as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity. The quantification of the GMM uncertainty is achieved through the analysis of residuals, enabling insights into inter- and intra-event uncertainties. The simulation results and the effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the predicted values of ground motion parameters with the observed values recorded during previous events in the region. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model in simulating physical phenomena.

Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh (ORCID:0000000337531676)↗

Updating Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

Energy modeling of decarbonized scenarios in integrated energy systems requires nuclear energy parameters that are critical for forecasting, modeling and cost structure analysis. Using updated real-world data has always been a challenge to estimate current nuclear reactors costs and deployment scenarios. Given this, an updated set of parameters for overnight capital costs and operation and maintenance costs are estimated for the Net Zero World initiative using recent reports that provided a vast set of open sources data inputs. This paper follows the methodology developed in the Net Zero World report and applies the new ranges estimated in the Gateway for Accelerated Innovation in Nuclear report that address many of the current challenges in obtaining accurate cost data for advanced nuclear concepts. The final goal is to provide new estimates of the overnight capital costs and operational costs for different countries. The present paper improves the earlier capital cost estimations, building on recent literature that aims to obtain accurate data for modeling and simulation to enhance energy system evaluations and support decision-making in areas like de-carbonization and capacity expansion. Finally, the paper compares the new cost estimates with the old cost results.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Ab initio benchmarks of neutrinoless double- β decay in light nuclei with a chiral Hamiltonian

Here, we report ab initio benchmark calculations of nuclear matrix elements (NMEs) for neutrinoless double-β (0νββ) decays in light nuclei with mass numbers ranging from A = 6 to A = 22. We use the transition operator derived from light-Majorana neutrino exchange and evaluate the NME with three different methods: two variants of in-medium similarity renormalization group (IMSRG) and importance-truncated no-core shell model (IT-NCSM). The same two plus three nucleon interaction from chiral effective field theory is employed, and both isospin-conserving (ΔT = 0) and isospin-changing (ΔT = 2) transitions are studied. We compare our resulting ground-state energies and NMEs to those of recent ab initio no-core shell model and coupled-cluster calculations, also with the same inputs. We show that the NMEs of ΔT = 0 transitions are in good agreement among all calculations, at the level of 10%. For ΔT = 2, relative deviations are more significant in some nuclei. The comparison with the exact IT-NCSM result allows us to analyze these cases in detail, and indicates the next steps toward improving the IMSRG-based approaches. The present study clearly demonstrates the power of consistent cross checks that are made possible by ab initio methodology. This capability is crucial for providing meaningful many-body uncertainties in the NMEs for the 0νββ decays in heavier candidate nuclei, where quasiexact benchmarks are not available.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Anisotropic Flow in Fixed-Target 208 Pb + 20 Ne Collisions as a Probe of Quark-Gluon Plasma

The System for Measuring Overlap with Gas (SMOG2) at the LHCb detector enables the study of fixed-target ion-ion collisions at relativistic energies ($\sqrt{𝑠_{NN}}$ ∼ 100 GeV in the center of mass). Here, with input from ab initio calculations of the structure of 16 O and 20 Ne , we compute 3+1⁢D hydrodynamic predictions for the anisotropic flow of Pb+Ne and Pb+O collisions to be tested with upcoming LHCb data. This will allow the detailed study of quark-gluon plasma formation as well as experimental tests of the predicted nuclear shapes. Elliptic flow (𝑣 2 ) in Pb + Ne collisions is greatly enhanced compared to the Pb + O baseline due to the shape of 20 Ne , which is deformed in a bowling-pin geometry. Owing to the large 208 Pb radius, this effect is seen in a broad centrality range, a unique feature of this collision configuration. Larger elliptic flow further enhances the quadrangular flow (𝑣 4 ) of Pb + Ne collisions via nonlinear coupling, and impacts the sign of the kurtosis of the elliptic flow vector distribution (𝑐 2 ⁡{4}). Exploiting the shape of 20 Ne proves thus an ideal method to investigate the formation of quark-gluon plasma in fixed-target experiments at LHCb, and demonstrates the power of System for Measuring Overlap with Gas as a tool to image nuclear ground states.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Addressing energy storage needs at lower cost via on-site thermal energy storage in buildings

Cost-effective energy storage is a critical enabler for the large-scale deployment of renewable electricity. Significant resources have been directed toward developing cost-effective energy storage, with research and development efforts dominated by work on lithium ion (Li-ion) battery technology. Though Li-ion batteries have many attractive qualities, it is not clear whether they can provide an affordable levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for certain applications, such as buildings. Buildings consume most of the world's electricity, and as much as 50% of their consumption goes toward meeting thermal loads. Thermal energy storage (TES) can provide a cost-effective alternative to Li-ion batteries for buildings; however, two questions remain to be answered. First, how much of total building energy storage requirements can be met via thermal storage for building loads? Second, can the LCOS for TES be favorable compared with Li-ion batteries? In this perspective, using the United States as a case study, we show that the total requirement for TES in buildings is in the range of ~1200–4500 electrical GW h, depending on the fraction of solar versus wind in the generation mix. Furthermore, we show that with at least 25% wind generation, all of the storage needed by buildings to support the grid can be met by TES. We also introduce a framework to calculate LCOS for on-site TES in buildings to enable a direct comparison with electrical storage technologies such as Li-ion batteries. This is not trivial, because the input energy type for TES (electricity) differs from the output energy type (thermal energy), and the efficiency can depend on ambient conditions. Our LCOS analysis shows that in many situations, TES can be more cost-effective for buildings than Li-ion batteries. We conclude our perspective by discussing future research and development opportunities that can significantly advance the deployment of TES for buildings to help enable a renewable electricity-dependent grid.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Assessment of Machine Learning Wall Modeling Approaches for Large Eddy Simulation of Gas Turbine Film Cooling Flows: An a Priori Study

Here, in this work, a priori analysis of machine learning (ML) strategies is carried out with the goal of data-driven wall modeling for large eddy simulation (LES) of gas turbine film cooling flows. High-fidelity flow datasets are extracted from wall-resolved LES (WRLES) of flow over a flat plate interacting with the coolant flow supplied by a single row of 7-7-7 shaped cooling holes inclined at 30 degrees with the flat plate at different blowing ratios (BR). The WRLES are performed using the high-order Nek5000 spectral element computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. Light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) is employed as the ML algorithm for the data-driven wall model. Parametric tests are conducted to systematically assess the influence of a wide range of input flow features (velocity components, velocity gradients, pressure gradients, and fluid properties) on the accuracy of ML wall model with respect to prediction of wall shear stress. In addition, the use of spatial stencil and time delay is also explored within the ML wall modeling framework. It is shown that features associated with gradients of the streamwise and spanwise velocity components have a major impact on the prediction fidelity of wall model, while the effect of gradients of wall-normal velocity component is found to be negligible. Moreover, adding flow feature information from an x-y-z spatial stencil significantly improves the ML model accuracy and generalizability compared to just using local flow features from the matching location. Overall, highest prediction accuracy is achieved when both spatial stencil and time delay features are incorporated within the data-driven wall modeling paradigm.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Multigroup Examination of Nickel-Reflected HEU System

Critical configurations of HEU-MET-FAST-003 (HMF-003) from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook were modeled for addition into the Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data maintained at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. HMF-003 contains models of a highly enriched uranium sphere with a spherical metal reflector of natural uranium, tungsten carbide, or nickel. For these simple models, good agreement is expected between the k eff calculated with continuous-energy (CE) and multigroup (MG) transport. However, using the CSAS5 sequence of the SCALE 6.2.4 package, the 8 in. thick nickel reflector model resulted in a difference of around 1.2 % Δ k . Results presented a clear indication of poor performance for the SCALE 252-group based on ENDF/B-VII.1 cross section library for this model. The bias was investigated over a range of nickel thickness and then compared with other MG libraries available in SCALE 6.2.4. As the nickel thickness increases, the MG k eff deviates from the CE result, confirming a performance issue with the MG calculation. Additionally, the reactions were compared between the two libraries to help determine the cause of k eff bias. Finally, additional MG libraries within SCALE 6.3 and based on ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII were reviewed. The 302-group and 1597-group result in significant improvements compared with the 252-group library. Nickel cross sections were modified from ENDF/B-VII.1 to ENDF/B-VIII. For the ENDF/B-VIII library, the deviation between the CE libraries and MG libraries is less pronounced than for ENDF/VII.1, except for the 1597-group. This examination clearly indicates the importance of validating calculations with applicable benchmark experiments and caution when using MG libraries.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

iMaNGA: mock MaNGA galaxies based on IllustrisTNG and MaStar SSPs – I. Construction and analysis of the mock data cubes

ABSTRACT Galaxy formation and evolution simulations are essential tools to probe poorly known astrophysics processes, but particular care is needed to compare simulations with galaxy observations, as observed data need to be modelled as well. We present a method to generate mock galaxies from the hydro-dynamical IllustrisTNG simulations which are suited to compare with integral field spectroscopic observation of galaxies from the SDSS-IV/Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey. First, we include the same instrumental effects and procedures as adopted in the acquisition and analysis of real data. Furthermore, we generate the galaxy spectra from the simulations using new stellar population models based on the MaNGA stellar library (MaStar). In this way, our mock data cubes have the same spatial sampling, cover the same wavelength range (3600–10 300 Å), and share the same spectral resolution (R ≈ 1800) and flux calibration of real MaNGA galaxy spectra. In this first paper, we demonstrate the method over an early- and a late-type simulated galaxy from TNG50. We analyse the correspondent mock MaNGA-like data cubes with the same full spectral fitting code, firefly, which was used for the observed spectra. We find that the intrinsic and recovered age and metallicity gradients are consistent within 1σ, with residuals over all tassels consistent with 0 at the 68 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ confidence level. We also perform the challenging test at comparing intrinsic and recovered star formation histories, finding a close resemblance between input and output. In follow-up papers, we will present a full simulated MaNGA-like catalogue (≈10 000 galaxies) with a comprehensive comparison of TNG50 simulations to MaNGA observational results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Near-Real-Time Forecast of Satellite-Based Soil Moisture Using Long Short-Term Memory with an Adaptive Data Integration Kernel

Nowcasts, or near-real-time (NRT) forecasts, of soil moisture based on the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission could provide substantial value for a range of applications including hazards monitoring and agricultural planning. To provide such a NRT forecast with high fidelity, we enhanced a time series deep learning architecture, long short-term memory (LSTM), with a novel data integration (DI) kernel to assimilate the most recent SMAP observations as soon as they become available. The kernel is adaptive in that it can accommodate irregular observational schedules. Testing over the CONUS, this NRT forecast product showcases predictions with unprecedented accuracy when evaluated against subsequent SMAP retrievals. It showed smaller error than NRT forecasts reported in the literature, especially at longer forecast latency. The comparative advantage was due to LSTM’s structural improvements, as well as its ability to utilize more input variables and more training data. The DI-LSTM was compared to the original LSTM model that runs without data integration, referred to as the projection model here. We found that the DI procedure removed the autocorrelated effects of forcing errors and errors due to processes not represented in the inputs, for example, irrigation and floodplain/lake inundation, as well as mismatches due to unseen forcing conditions. The effects of this purely data-driven DI kernel are discussed for the first time in the geosciences. Furthermore, this work presents an upper-bound estimate for the random component of the SMAP retrieval error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Freshwater Input and Vertical Mixing in the Canada Basin’s Seasonal Halocline: 1975 versus 2006–12

Abstract The Arctic seasonal halocline impacts the exchange of heat, energy, and nutrients between the surface and the deeper ocean, and it is changing in response to Arctic sea ice melt over the past several decades. Here, we assess seasonal halocline formation in 1975 and 2006–12 by comparing daily, May–September, salinity profiles collected in the Canada Basin under sea ice. We evaluate differences between the two time periods using a one-dimensional (1D) bulk model to quantify differences in freshwater input and vertical mixing. The 1D metrics indicate that two separate factors contribute similarly to stronger stratification in 2006–12 relative to 1975: 1) larger surface freshwater input and 2) less vertical mixing of that freshwater. The larger freshwater input is mainly important in August–September, consistent with a longer melt season in recent years. The reduced vertical mixing is mainly important from June until mid-August, when similar levels of freshwater input in 1975 and 2006–12 are mixed over a different depth range, resulting in different stratification. These results imply that decadal changes to ice–ocean dynamics, in addition to freshwater input, significantly contribute to the stronger seasonal stratification in 2006–12 relative to 1975. These findings highlight the need for near-surface process studies to elucidate the impact of lateral processes and ice–ocean momentum exchange on vertical mixing. Moreover, the results may provide insight for improving the representation of decadal changes to Arctic upper-ocean stratification in climate models that do not capture decadal changes to vertical mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗