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Comparing Proxy and Model Estimates of Hydroclimate Variability and Change over the Common Era

Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations.We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.

Common Era↗

Site-wide occupancy assessment using camera traps for seven mammalian species at Los Alamos National Laboratory

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or Laboratory) is committed to solving national security challenges through scientific excellence and has been serving the nation and northern New Mexico for over 70 years. Being located on the Pajarito Plateau in the eastern flanks of the Jemez Mountains, the Laboratory is surrounded by a rich diversity of plants and animals. It is common to see many different species of wildlife on Laboratory property; however, sometimes interactions with wildlife can be negative. Vehicle accidents with wildlife have become a common occurrence. With the current and ongoing expansion of the Laboratory on the Pajarito Plateau, it has the potential to further impact wildlife movement including large game species. Local agencies and tribal Pueblos rely on large game species and do not want these species to be restricted from moving across property boundaries. Temporal and spatial aspects of where wildlife occur on the site is a phenomena that is either not well understood in uncommon species or needs periodic reevaluation for common species. Estimating the distribution of multiple species across the landscape provides wildlife biologists with crucial information for monitoring and conserving animal populations in a particular area. Utilizing motion activated wildlife cameras, also known as camera traps, to monitor wildlife populations has become an essential tool for biologists. Camera traps are non-invasive and cost-effective and can document multiple elusive or uncommon wildlife species, such as carnivores, simultaneously. Occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework for the analysis of the distribution for multiple wildlife species. It explicitly recognizes whether a species is spatially common or rare (occupancy = ψ) and if that species is easy or hard to detect (detection probability = p ). Multispecies and multi-season occupancy models can detect trends in species occupancy because individual species may vary in seasonal movements, detection probability, and transition rates between habitats. In this study, we assessed the site as a whole to ascertain when and where medium and large mammal species are present. Understanding wildlife patterns at the Laboratory will better inform future management decisions regarding land use and development strategies. We placed motion activated wildlife cameras in a random systematic sampling design and used these data to create occupancy models. We tested for differences in single-species occupancy and detection probability by season of mammal species captured on 20 camera traps placed across the Laboratory in a 40 mi² (103 km²) area. We focus the interpretation of our findings on seven mammal species found during this study. They are Rocky Mountain elk ( Cervus canadensis nelsoni ; hereafter “elk”), mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ; hereafter “deer”), mountain lion ( Puma concolor ; hereafter “lion”), American black bear ( Ursus americanus ; hereafter “bear”), coyote ( Canis latrans ), bobcat ( Lynx rufus ), and gray fox ( Urocyon cinereoargenteus ; hereafter “fox”).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Power modeling of degraded PV systems: Case studies using a dynamically updated physical model (PV-Pro)

Power modeling, widely applied for health monitoring and power prediction, is crucial for the efficiency and reliability of Photovoltaic (PV) systems. The most common approach for power modeling uses a physical equivalent circuit model, with the core challenge being the estimation of model parameters. Traditional parameter estimation either relies on datasheet information, which does not reflect the system's current health status, especially for degraded PV systems, or requires additional I-V characterization, which is generally unavailable for large-scale PV systems. Thus, we build upon our previously developed tool, PV-Pro (originally proposed for degradation analysis), to enhance its application for power modeling of degraded PV systems. PV-Pro extracts model parameters from production data without requiring I-V characterization. This dynamic model, periodically updated, can closely capture the actual degradation status, enabling precise power modeling. PV-Pro is compared with popular power modeling techniques, including persistence, nominal physical, and various machine learning models. The results indicate that PV-Pro achieves outstanding power modeling performance, with an average nMAE of 1.4 % across four field-degraded PV systems, reducing error by 17.6 % compared to the best alternative technique. Furthermore, PV-Pro demonstrates robustness across different seasons and severities of degradation. The tool is available as a Python package at https://github.com/DuraMAT/pvpro.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

On the use of air temperature and precipitation as surrogate predictors in soil respiration modelling

Soil respiration (R S ), the soil-to-atmosphere CO 2 flux that is a major component of the global carbon cycle, is strongly influenced by local soil temperature (T soil ) and water content (SWC). Regional to global-scale R S modelling thus requires this information at local scales, but few high-quality, wall-to-wall (global) T soil and SWC data exist. As a result, such modelling efforts commonly use air temperature (T air ) and monthly precipitation (P m ) as surrogate predictors, but their site-scale accuracy and potential bias are unknown. In this report we used monthly data from 880 sites across a wide variety of different environmental conditions (i.e., climate, ecosystem type, elevation, vegetation leaf habit and drainage conditions) to determine the suitability of T air as a surrogate for T soil , and data from 507 sites to examine the suitability of P m as a surrogate for SWC. Site-specific linear and second-order exponential non-linear models were compared using model evaluation metrics (i.e., slope, p-value of slope, root mean square error [RMSE], index of agreement and model efficiency). We found that T soil and T air are highly correlated and explain similar R S variability. In contrast, P m is not a good surrogate for SWC, even though P m explains a similar amount of R S variability to SWC. The wide variability in the site-specific relationships between R S and SWC means that no single relationship can be used for large-scale modelling. The results from this study support the use of T air in continental-to-global scale R S models, and highlight the urgent need for continental-to-global scale SWC datasets for the modelling and evaluation of future soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Validation of the aerosol optical property products derived by the GRASP/Component approach from multi-angular polarimetric observations

The multi-angle polarimetric satellite observations are helpful for improving the retrievals of aerosol parameters. However, practical applications of polarization technology are still limited because of complexity of measurement and interpretation of polarimetric observations. In this study, we analyze the performance of a new component approach developed in the frame of the Generalized Retrieval of Atmosphere and Surface Properties (GRASP) algorithm. In addition to aerosol optical properties including particle size distribution, non-sphericity and index of refraction that are commonly derived from multi-angle radiance and polarization measurements, the GRASP/Component approach also provides some information about aerosol composition. Specifically, in this approach aerosol is modeled as an internal mixture of several components with distinctly different chemical compositions and known refractive indices. The approach is intended not only to provide additional insight on aerosol composition but also to improve retrieval of basic aerosol optical properties. This study presents comprehensive validation and evaluation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Ångstrom exponent (AE), fine mode AOD (AODF), coarse mode AOD (AODC), and single scattering albedo (SSA) as retrieved by the GRASP/Component approach. The GRASP/Component products include aerosol retrievals using two different aerosol component mixing rules, i.e., Maxwell-Garnett (MG) effective medium approximation and a simple Volume- Weighted averaging (VW). The differences between the results obtained using these two assumptions are also discussed. The obtained results show that the aerosol optical property products of GRASP/Component approach have good agreement with the ground-based AERONET measurements, which is comparable to other PARASOL/ GRASP approaches. Specifically, the AOD retrieved by GRASP/Component approach show high correlation and nearly no bias both over land and ocean, as compared with AERONET. The more detailed aerosol properties such as AE, AODF, AODC and SSA also show one of the best comparisons with AERONET. These improvements can probably be attributed to the use of the additional physical constraints on spectral dependence of the complex refractive index and the reduction of total number of aerosol parameters directly retrieved in the GRASP/Component approach. In addition, the choice of mixing rules had no significant effect on optical retrievals. With the exception of SSA, the results obtained based on the MG mixing rule were found to be slightly better over those obtained using VW mixing rule, especially for bias.

Brent N Holben↗

Wavelet Techniques Applied to Modeling Transitional/Turbulent Flows in Turbomachinery

Computer simulation is an essential part of the design and development of jet engines for the aeropropulsion industry. Engineers concerned with calculating the flow in jet engine components, such as compressors and turbines, need simple engineering models that accurately describe the complex flow of air and gases and that allow them to quickly estimate loads, losses, temperatures, and other design parameters. In this ongoing collaborative project, advanced wavelet analysis techniques are being used to gain insight into the complex flow phenomena. These insights, which cannot be achieved by commonly used methods, are being used to develop innovative new flow models and to improve existing ones. Wavelet techniques are very suitable for analyzing the complex turbulent and transitional flows pervasive in jet engines. These flows are characterized by intermittency and a multitude of scales. Wavelet analysis results in information about these scales and their locations. The distribution of scales is equivalent to the frequency spectrum provided by commonly used Fourier analysis techniques; however, no localization information is provided by Fourier analysis. In addition, wavelet techniques allow conditional sampling analyses of the individual scales, which is not possible by Fourier methods.

Source record↗

Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture Project Update

Future Human Exploration missions will face new constraints as crews move further from terrestrial communication, resupply, and the real-time support enjoyed by Low Earth Orbit missions today. Exploration crews will need to be more self-reliant and able to respond to emergencies without immediate support from ground-based personnel. A new generation of technologies, employing advanced analytical and predictive modeling techniques, is needed to assist the crew’s work, help maintain their health, and inform the decisions they make on these future Exploration missions. The Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture (CHP-IDA) project is laying a foundation for these future technologies by integrating sources of data generated by and around the crew then providing them though common data models and Application Programming Interfaces to external systems. The combined data model makes comprehensive Crew Health and Performance data accessible and more meaningful to the decision-making process. This presentation will describe the currently ongoing effort to develop a path-to-flight concept of the CHP-IDA software, current integrations that have been developed, updates to the architecture, and examples of the corresponding exploration scenarios in which CHP-IDA would be used.

Exploration↗

Examination of the sensitivity of quasifree reactions to details of the bound-state overlap functions

It is often stated that heavy-ion nucleon knockout reactions are mostly sensitive to the tails of the bound-state wave functions. In contrast, (p,2p) and (p,pn) reactions are known to access information on the full overlap functions within the nucleus. We analyze the oxygen isotopic chain and explore the differences between single-particle wave functions generated with potential models, used in the experimental analysis of knockout reactions, and ab initio computations from self-consistent Green's function theory. Contrary to common belief, we find that not only the tail of the overlap functions, but also their internal part is assessed in both reaction mechanisms, which are crucial to yield accurately determined spectroscopic information.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Examining Infrasound Propagation at High Spatial Resolution Using a Nodal Seismic Array

Infrasound—acoustic waves in the atmosphere below 20 Hz—is a useful monitoring tool. Topography and atmospheric structure strongly control infrasound propagation, and at common source–receiver distances neither of these effects can be ignored when quantitative source constraints are sought. Detailed spatial measurements of the infrasound wavefield would inform propagation models and improve source estimates. However, the “large-N” deployment strategy now well-known in seismology has not yet been realized for infrasound studies. Here, we use the 900-node seismic array from the 2014 Imaging Magma Under St. Helens (iMUSH) experiment as a proxy for a large-N infrasound network, by leveraging acoustic–seismic coupled arrivals. The active-source component of iMUSH consisted of 23 shallowly buried explosions around Mount Saint Helens volcano; these explosions produced epicentral infrasound recorded on the nodes. We find that the bulk presence of ground-coupled infrasound on the nodes is controlled by wind noise and source–receiver distance, with observed arrivals for eight explosions. Explosions with the most extensive coupling produce complex spatial waveform patterns across the array. These patterns are related to both topographic and atmospheric propagation effects, as well as spatially variable site (coupling) effects. We compare our observations to simple topographic diffraction and high-resolution wind advection models, and full-wave numerical simulations. We find strong spatial correlations between (a) coupled arrival strength and modeled topographic obstruction and (b) coupled arrival time and along-path winds. Our seismoacoustic analyses and results are applicable to other existing and future nodal seismic data sets and can expand the utility of such deployments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Toward a Comprehensive Carbon Budget for North America: Potential Applications of Adjoint Methods with Diverse Datasets

A detailed mechanistic understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 will be required to reliably predict future COS levels and climate. A commonly used technique for deriving information about CO2 exchange with surface reservoirs is to solve an "inverse problem," where CO2 observations are used with an atmospheric transport model to find the optimal distribution of sources and sinks. Synthesis inversion methods are powerful tools for addressing this question, but the results are disturbingly sensitive to the details of the calculation. Studies done using different atmospheric transport models and combinations of surface station data have produced substantially different distributions of surface fluxes. Adjoint methods are now being developed that will more effectively incorporate diverse datasets in estimates of surface fluxes of CO2. In an adjoint framework, it will be possible to combine CO2 concentration data from long-term surface monitoring stations with data from intensive field campaigns and with proposed future satellite observations. A major advantage of the adjoint approach is that meteorological and surface data, as well as data for other atmospheric constituents and pollutants can be efficiently included in addition to observations of CO2 mixing ratios. This presentation will provide an overview of potentially useful datasets for carbon cycle research in general with an emphasis on planning for the North American Carbon Project. Areas of overlap with ongoing and proposed work on air quality/air pollution issues will be highlighted.

Andrews, A.↗

An Adjoint-Based Analysis of the Sampling Footprints of Tall Tower, Aircraft and Potential Future Lidar Observations of CO2

A detailed mechanistic understanding of the sources and sinks of CO2 will be required to reliably predict future CO2 levels and climate. A commonly used technique for deriving information about CO2 exchange with surface reservoirs is to solve an 'inverse problem', where CO2 observations are used with an atmospheric transport model to find the optimal distribution of sources and sinks. Synthesis inversion methods are powerful tools for addressing this question, but the results are disturbingly sensitive to the details of the calculation. Studies done using different atmospheric transport models and combinations of surface station data have produced substantially different distributions of surface fluxes. Adjoint methods are now being developed that will more effectively incorporate diverse datasets in estimates of surface fluxes of CO2. In an adjoint framework, it will be possible to combine CO2 concentration data from longterm surface and aircraft monitoring stations with data from intensive field campaigns and with proposed future satellite observations. We have recently developed an adjoint for the GSFC 3-D Parameterized Chemistry and Transport Model (PCTM). Here, we will present results from a PCTM Adjoint study comparing the sampling footprints of tall tower, aircraft and potential future lidar observations of CO2. The vertical resolution and extent of the profiles and the observation frequency will be considered for several sites in North America.

Andrews, Arlyn↗

Loggers and Forest Fragmentation: Behavioral Models of Road Building in the Amazon Basin

Although a large literature now exists on the drivers of tropical deforestation, less is known about its spatial manifestation. This is a critical shortcoming in our knowledge base since the spatial pattern of land-cover change and forest fragmentation, in particular, strongly affect biodiversity. The purpose of this article is to consider emergent patterns of road networks, the initial proximate cause of fragmentation in tropical forest frontiers. Specifically, we address the road-building processes of loggers who are very active in the Amazon landscape. To this end, we develop an explanation of road expansions, using a positive approach combining a theoretical model of economic behavior with geographic information systems (GIs) software in order to mimic the spatial decisions of road builders. We simulate two types of road extensions commonly found in the Amazon basin in a region: showing the fishbone pattern of fragmentation. Although our simulation results are only partially successful, they call attention to the role of multiple agents in the landscape, the importance of legal and institutional constraints on economic behavior, and the power of GIs as a research tool.

Arima, Eugenio Y.↗

Gradient-Enhanced Reliability Analysis of Transonic Aeroelastic Flutter

Reliability computation for transonic aeroelastic systems is a challenging task, given the complex physical mechanisms involved, and broader challenges associated with computing small probabilities of failure/flutter. This paper demonstrates the use of four different reliability estimation tools, with a particular focus on tools that can utilize gradient information: the derivative of flutter boundaries with respect to random parametric inputs. Results are shown for two test cases: the AGARD 445.6 case and the Common Research Model, and the strength and weaknesses of each UQ tool are compared in terms of cost and accuracy. Two of the UQ tools used here require gradients as part of a search process, but the other two are sample-based, and are able to leverage the existence of gradients for improved performance.

Bret K Stanford↗

Hyper Spectral Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection is a common machine learning (ML) task with growing importance in the fields of imaging, quality assurance, and multiple security related disciplines. Anomaly detection is more difficult than traditional machine learning methods due to the inherent unlabeled nature of the datasets. Existing anomaly detection architectures commonly face challenges with explainability, retaining information related to the relational structure of the data, and false positive rates. Hyperspectral Imaging Anomaly Detection (HSI) is a statistical model that employs vertex and edge weighted graphs to preserve the data’s relationships on different topographical scales. The model is able to generalize from anomaly detection in 2D images to novel datasets related to cyber-security. Furthermore, the use of multi-spectral and other filtering methods results in fewer false positives and increases the explainability of model predictions. When applying HSI to cyber-security datasets, we are able to successfully detect malicious activity with a relatively high degree of accuracy.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture Project Updates

Future Human Exploration missions will face new constraints as crews move further from terrestrial communication, resupply, and the real-time support enjoyed by Low Earth Orbit missions today. Exploration crews will need to be more self-reliant and able to respond to emergencies without immediate support from ground-based personnel. A new generation of technologies, employing advanced analytical and predictive modeling techniques, is needed to assist the crew’s work, help maintain their health, and inform the decisions they make on these future Exploration missions. The Crew Health and Performance Integrated Data Architecture (CHP-IDA) project is laying a foundation for these future technologies by integrating sources of data generated by and around the crew and then providing them though common data models and Application Programming Interfaces to external systems. The combined data model makes comprehensive Crew Health and Performance data accessible and more meaningful to the decision-making process. This presentation will describe the currently ongoing effort to develop and evaluate a path-to-flight concept of the CHP-IDA software, current integrations, updates to the architecture, and examples of exploration scenarios in which CHP-IDA would be used.

B Schmitt↗

Space and Time Dynamics of Transpiration in the East River Watershed: Biotic and Abiotic Controls

Alpine forests have important impacts on water resources by affecting how much of the precipitation that falls on a watershed is routed to streamflow or returned to the atmosphere as transpiration – so-called “green water”. In many of the high-altitude watersheds that supply critical water resources to the western US, it remains a challenge to predict how much water forests will utilize limiting the ability to predict both short and long term information on downstream water resources. The uncertainty emerges because transpiration varies between tree species, across landscapes and over time in ways that cannot readily be predicted from physically-based models for evaporation. In this project, we utilized a technique called sap flux to measure the rate of water use for three common species of fir, spruce and aspen distributed across a hillslope in the East River Watershed from 2019-2021. We also made ~weekly measurements of the concentration of stable isotopic tracers in transpiration to understand not only how much water was being used but whether it originated from summer rain or snowmelt. Firstly, our results show that the species tend to use similar amounts of total water but they achieve this similar cumulative water flux both by using water at different times of the year and by using different water sources. This shows the importance of including species-level information into models used to make seasonal streamflow predictions. Secondly, our results show that trees lower on the hillslope use older waters all through the summer whereas trees higher on the hillslope rely more heavily on recent summer rain. This means trees lower on the hillslope are less sensitive to year-to-year changes in summer climate. Lastly, we found that sites with dense forest stands displayed the largest amounts of year-to-year changes in transpiration and thus these high localized spots in the watershed are the primary drivers of changes in “green water” use. The results provide an unprecedented spatial and temporal picture of forest water use that confirms a number of fundamental hypotheses on hillslope ecohydrology that had not previously been tested against observations. Predictions of streamflow that will benefit from this work are highly valuable for agriculture management, flood control and ecological restoration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Closures and Simulation for Thermal Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media with Nonlinear Temperature Dependence

Because of the practical challenge of rendering very complex realistic spatial structures for numerical work, it is common practice to resort to characterizing such media as stochastic mixtures of materials, ideally parametrized with low order statistics such as the mean, variance, and correlation functions of the now random material properties. This enables realizations of the medium to be repeatedly generated and radiation transport computations to, in principle, be performed for a large ensemble of these realizations to obtain a statistically well-characterized radiation field. Statistical post-processing yields desired quantities such as conditional and unconditional mean radiation flux and probability distributions of transmitted radiation. However, such computations prove expensive for all but the simplest stochastic geometries and are most suited for benchmarking approximate models. The most common approximations lead to homogenized media so that transport computations are required only on a single medium realization but by construct provide only limited statistical information on the radiation field. Almost all approximate approaches to this problem attempt to develop equations for low order moments of the radiation intensity (mean, second moment, correlation function) but inevitably encounter a closure problem: the equation for any statistical moment will contain terms depending on unknown higher-order moments. Thus, the challenge shifts to one of developing closure relations that relate the unknown moments to the lower order moments. Under very special conditions, an exact closure can be derived but in general closures are heuristically stated constitutive relations. Also, closure approaches depend on whether the mixing statistics are spatially and/or temporally continuous as in fluctuating turbulent fields, or discontinuous as in randomly mixed solid chunks of material. Thus, unconditional averaging is generally applied in the former case but conditional averaging is more appropriate when the mixing is discontinuous. In this work, the emphasis is on binary statistical mixtures of immiscible fluids as as such the quantities of interest are averages (flux, temperature) conditioned on the material type.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗