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NASA NTRS1998

Observed Changes in Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor Transport From Satellite Measurements During the Summers of 1987 and 1988

The research described below focuses on the use of satellite measurements to monitor both monthly and interannual changes in UT (upper tropospheric) water vapor transport. The GOES-7 Pathfinder data set is used to estimate both winds and humidity during the summers (JJA) of 1987 and 1988. These two summers are of particular importance to climate variability since they were characterized by a dramatic shift in the Southern Oscillation index (i.e., 1987 as a warm ENSO event and 1988 as a cold La-Nina period) (Arkin, 1988; Ropelewski 1988). The contrasting features of the summers of '87 and '88 are exploited to demonstrate the utility of satellite wind and humidity estimates to analyze the role of water vapor in climate change.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗
NASA NTRS2019

Importance of Tree- and Species-Level Interactions With Wildfire, Climate, and Soils in Interior Alaska: Implications for Forest Change Under A Warming Climate

The boreal zone of Alaska is dominated by interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and soils. These interactions are likely to change in the future through increasing permafrost thaw, more frequent and intense wildfires, and vegetation change from drought and competition. We utilize an individual tree-based vegetation model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to estimate current and future forest conditions across sites within interior Alaska. We updated UVAFME for application within interior Alaska, including improved simulation of permafrost dynamics, litter decay, nutrient dynamics, fire mortality, and post-fire regrowth. Following these updates, UVAFME output on species-specific biomass and stem density was comparable to inventory measurements at various forest types within interior Alaska. We then simulated forest response to climate change at specific inventory locations and across the Tanana Valley River Basin on a 2 × 2 km2 grid. We derived projected temperature and precipitation from a five-model average taken from the CMIP5 archive under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results suggest that climate change and the concomitant impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in overall decreases in biomass (particularly for spruce (Picea spp.)) within the interior Tanana Valley, despite increases in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) biomass, and a resulting shift towards higher deciduous fraction. Simulation results also predict increases in biomass at cold, wet locations and at high elevations, and decreases in biomass in dry locations, under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. These simulations demonstrate that a highly detailed, species interactive model can be used across a large region within Alaska to investigate interactions between vegetation, climate, wildfire, and permafrost. The vegetation changes predicted here have the capacity to feed back to broader scale climate-forest interactions in the North American boreal forest, a region which contributes significantly to the global carbon and energy budgets.

forest modeling↗
NASA NTRS2020

Satellite Monitoring of Global Surface Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics Using the SMAP Level 4 Carbon Product

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important metric of soil health and the terrestrial carbon balance. Short‐term climate variations affect SOC through changes in temperature and moisture, which control vegetation growth and soil decomposition. We evaluated a satellite data‐driven carbon model, operating under the NASA Soil Moisture Active‐Passive (SMAP) mission, as a means of monitoring global surface SOC dynamics. The SMAP Level 4 Carbon (L4C) product estimates a daily global carbon budget including surface (0‐ to 5‐cm depth) SOC. We found that the L4C mean latitudinal SOC distribution is generally consistent with alternative assessments from static soil inventory records and dynamic global vegetation models (r ≥ 0.89). Within forest systems, based on inventory data, L4C SOC is most similar in magnitude to litterfall but is correlated with coarse woody debris ( urn:x-wiley:jgrg:media:jgrg21790:jgrg21790-math-0001) and total SOC ( urn:x-wiley:jgrg:media:jgrg21790:jgrg21790-math-0002). L4C SOC is sensitive to seasonal and annual climate variability, with mean residence times that range from 1.5 years in the wet tropics to 17 years in the cold tundra. Incorporating soil moisture retrievals from the SMAP L‐band (1.4 GHz) microwave radiometer within the L4C algorithm provides enhanced soil moisture sensitivity under low‐to‐moderate vegetation cover (<5 kg/sq.m vegetation water content). The L‐band soil moisture had the greatest impact on the L4C carbon budget in semiarid regions, which span almost 60% of the globe and account for substantial variability in the terrestrial carbon sink. The L4C operational product enables prognostic investigations into effects of recent climate trends and anomalies (e.g., droughts and pluvials) on shallow soil carbon dynamics.

K. Arthur Endsley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer

MISR views the sunlit Earth simultaneously at nine widely spaced angles and provides ongoing global coverage with high spatial detail. Its imagery is carefully calibrated to provide accurate measures of the brightness, contrast, and color of reflected sunlight. MISR provides new types of information for scientists studying Earth's climate, such as the regional and global distribution of different types of atmospheric particles and aerosols. The change in reflection at different view angles provides the means to distinguish aerosol types, cloud forms, and land surface cover. Combined with stereoscopic techniques, this enables construction of 3-D cloud models and estimation of the total amount of sunlight reflected by Earth's diverse environments. MISR was built for NASA by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. It is part of NASA's first Earth Observing System (EOS) spacecraft, the Terra spacecraft, which was launched into polar orbit from Vandenberg Air Force Base on December 18, 1999. MISR has been continuously providing data since February 24, 2000. [Mission Objectives] The MISR instrument acquires systematic multi-angle measurements for global monitoring of top-of-atmosphere and surface albedos and for measuring the shortwave radiative properties of aerosols, clouds, and surface scenes in order to characterize their impact on the Earth's climate. The Earth's climate is constantly changing -- as a consequence of both natural processes and human activities. Scientists care a great deal about even small changes in Earth's climate, since they can affect our comfort and well-being, and possibly our survival. A few years of below-average rainfall, an unusually cold winter, or a change in emissions from a coal-burning power plant, can influence the quality of life of people, plants, and animals in the region involved. The goal of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is to increase our understanding of the climate changes that are occurring on our planet, and the reasons for these changes, so we are better equipped to anticipate and prepare for the future. The MISR instrument is a part of EOS. Its role is to measure the amount of sunlight scattered in different directions under natural conditions. These measurements will help quantify the amount of solar energy that heats the Earth's surface and atmosphere, and the changes that occur in them over the lifetime of the MISR instrument. From the MISR observations, we are also learning more about those components of the Earth's environment that scatter sunlight: particles in the atmosphere, the planet's surface, and clouds. MISR monitors changes in surface reflection properties, in atmospheric aerosol content and composition, and in cloudiness. Scientists use these data to study land use changes, air pollution, volcanic eruptions, as well as processes such as desertification, deforestation, and soil erosion. As part of the EOS program, computer models that predict future climate will be improved by the results of these studies. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=2000-02-24; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Diner, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmosphere Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: How Well Can We Quantify Hydrologic and Radiative Responses?

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system-- changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). Our analysis makes use a number of data bases, principally those derived from space-based measurements, to explore systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data set reveals errors in the surface longwave emission due to use of biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows subsequent use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative beating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 Wm-2 per K of SST change. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. Corresponding radiative fluxes seem systematically smaller resulting in a enhanced (suppressed) export of energy from the tropical ocean regions during warm (cold) SST events. Discussion of likely errors due to sampling and measurement strategies are discussed along with their impacts on our conclusions.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

The session "Mars Climate Change" included the following topics:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

Arctic PBL Cloud Height and Motion Retrievals from MISR and MINX

How Arctic clouds respond and feedback to sea ice loss is key to understanding of the rapid climate change seen in the polar region. As more open water becomes available in the Arctic Ocean, cold air outbreaks (aka. off-ice flow from polar lows) produce a vast sheet of roll clouds in the planetary boundary layer (PBl). The cold air temperature and wind velocity are the critical parameters to determine and understand the PBl structure formed under these roll clouds. It has been challenging for nadir visible/IR sensors to detect Arctic clouds due to lack of contrast between clouds and snowy/icy surfaces. In addition) PBl temperature inversion creates a further problem for IR sensors to relate cloud top temperature to cloud top height. Here we explore a new method with the Multiangle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) instrument to measure cloud height and motion over the Arctic Ocean. Employing a stereoscopic-technique, MISR is able to measure cloud top height accurately and distinguish between clouds and snowy/icy surfaces with the measured height. We will use the MISR INteractive eXplorer (MINX) to quantify roll cloud dynamics during cold-air outbreak events and characterize PBl structures over water and over sea ice.

Wu, Dong L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Reply to Comment by Cole-dai Et Al. on "Climatic Impact of the Long-lasting Laki Eruption: Inapplicability of Mass-independent Sulfur Isotope Composition Measurements"

Here we respond to the comments by Cole-Dai et al. [2014] on our article Schmidt et al. [2012]. Specifically, in response to section 2 of their reply, we argued in Schmidt et al. [2012] that based on previously published estimates of the volatile release height during the 1783-1784 C.E. Laki eruption, the lack of a sulfur massindependent fractionation (MIF) anomaly is expected. In other words, no previous study on Laki ever argued that this eruption emitted SO2 into altitudes >13-15 km. In section 2.3, Cole-Dai et al. [2014] argue that the nonzero Δ33S value of their Laki sample 1 may be explained by a short-lived explosive phase at Laki during which volatiles reached the stratosphere. In Schmidt et al. [2012] in section 2, we argued in agreement with Cole-Dai et al. [2014] (section 3.1) that for a MIF anomaly to be preserved, the Laki volatiles would have had to be emitted in >20 km altitude. Our main point is that eruption column heights >20 km are unlikely based on the historical accounts and plume-rise modeling for the Laki eruption [Stothers et al., 1986; Woods, 1993; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. In Schmidt et al. [2012], we argued that to deduce a short-lived climatic impact of the Laki eruption based on the lack of a MIF anomaly and the length of the sulfate deposition in Greenland ice cores may be misleading because the climatic impact will outlast the radiative forcing of the Laki aerosol cloud. Cole-Dai et al. [2014] acknowledge the latter in their reply in section 4.2. We agreewith Cole-Dai et al. [2014] in that themagnitude and length of the climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784 depends on the altitude of the volatile release during the eruption (sections 2.3 and 4.2). However, even if we assumed that during Laki all sulfur dioxide (SO2) would have been released in the troposphere, then the aerosol cloud would still be present in the upper troposphere during March 1784, as is evident from independent model simulations of this "tropospheric-only" scenario [Stevenson et al., 2003]. We acknowledge that there is uncertainty on the volatile release height for Laki; however, it is worth considering that those climate model simulations that used an injection altitude between 9 km and 13 km for the Laki SO2 [Highwood and Stevenson, 2003; Oman et al., 2006a, 2006b; Schmidt et al., 2012] best match the observed temperature changes during summer of 1783 [Angell and Korshover, 1985; Brázdil et al., 2010; Briffa et al., 1998; D'Arrigo and Jacoby, 1999; Jacoby et al., 1999; Kington, 1988; Manley, 1974; Parker et al., 1992; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. Based on these model simulations, a climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784, albeit weaker than during the climactic phases of Laki, is expected (and our argument here does not exclude the role of natural variability in contributing to the cold winter of 1783-1784 as discussed in Schmidt et al. [2012]). Therefore, we continue to argue that for high-latitude eruptions such as Laki, the applicability of sulfur isotopic measurements to interpret the climatic relevance has yet to be demonstrated. Itmay transpire that the interpretation of MIF signals for the climate-relevance of an eruption is valid and unambiguous only for short-lived explosive eruptions in the tropics. In terms of the processes producing a MIF anomaly (section 3.3 in Cole-Dai et al. [2014]), the works by Hattori et al. [2013] and Ono et al. [2013] suggest that there are remaining issues not discussed by Cole-Dai et al. [2014], for instance, self-shielding of SO2 due to high column densities typical for eruptions of Pinatubo-scale and greater, and the preservation of the MIF signature in general.

general circulation model↗
NASA NTRS1990

January-february Tropospheric Climate for the Northern Hemisphere and the 11-year Solar Cycle, the QBO and the Southern Oscillation

Examined here is a recently discovered association between the 11-year solar cycle and the atmosphere that is most easily detectable when the two phases of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) are considered individually rather than pooled. The influence of the Southern Oscillation (SO) for either of the two QBO phases is then combined with that of the solar cycle in the form of two-predictor multiple regression. The strong and well-defined relationship between the 11-year 10.7 cm solar flux cycle and the lower troposphere Northern Hemisphere January-February climate for QBO phase-stratified samples (van Loon and Labitzke 1988, Barnston and Livezey 1989) failed for the west QBO phase in 1989. Here, the opposing 1989 event is explained, at least in part, on the basis of the phase of the SO (the cold tropical Pacific SST event of 1988 to 1989). It is demonstrated that both the SO and the solar flux have moderate and quasi-independent correlations with the climate over certain regions, and where there is strong overlap they can work either in harmony or in opposition. In 1989 in North America the influences of the SO and the flux conflicted to an unprecedented extent, and the SO was the controlling influence in most regions of the continent (western Canada being one exception). The 1989 event draws attention to the smallness of the QBO phase-stratified samples and the still more serious holes in the two-dimensional sample space of flux and SO when both factors are viewed as predictors within one QBO phase.

Barnston, Anthony G.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Emulators and Empirical Models Combining Climate and Global Crop Models for Seasonal Agricultural Production

We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS1988

Long-term climate change and the geochemical cycle of carbon

The response of the coupled climate-geochemical system to changes in paleography is examined in terms of the biogeochemical carbon cycle. The simple, zonally averaged energy balance climate model combined with a geochemical carbon cycle model, which was developed to study climate changes, is described. The effects of latitudinal distributions of the continents on the carbon cycle are investigated, and the global silicate weathering rate as a function of latitude is measured. It is observed that a concentration of land area at high altitudes results in a high CO2 partial pressure and a high global average temperature, and for land at low latitudes a cold globe and ice are detected. It is noted that the CO2 greenhouse feedback effect is potentially strong and has a stabilizing effect on the climate system.

Marshall, Hal G.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Anomalous Winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki Eruption or an Analog of the 2009-2010 Winter to Blame?

The multi ]stage eruption of the Icelandic volcano Laki beginning in June, 1783 is speculated to have caused unusual dry fog and heat in western Europe and cold in North America during the 1783 summer, and record cold and snow the subsequent winter across the circum-North Atlantic. Despite the many indisputable impacts of the Laki eruption, however, its effect on climate, particularly during the 1783.1784 winter, may be the most poorly constrained. Here we test an alternative explanation for the unusual conditions during this time: that they were caused primarily by a combined negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and an El Nino ]Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event. A similar combination of NAO ]ENSO phases was identified as the cause of record cold and snowy conditions during the 2009.2010 winter in Europe and eastern North America. 600-year tree-ring reconstructions of NAO and ENSO indices reveal values in the 1783.1784 winter second only to their combined severity in 2009.2010. Data sources and model simulations support our hypothesis that a combined, negative NAO ]ENSO warm phase was the dominant cause of the anomalous winter of 1783.1784, and that these events likely resulted from natural variability unconnected to Laki.

D'Arrigo, Rosanne↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cold Reversal on Kodiak Island, Alaska, Correlated with the European Younger Dryas by Using Variations of Atmospheric C-14 Content

High-resolution AMS (accelerator-mass-spectrometer) radiocarbon dating was performed on late-glacial macrofossils in lake sediments from Kodiak Island, Alaska, and on shells in marine sediments from southwest Sweden. In both records, a dramatic drop in radiocarbon ages equivalent to a rise in the atmospheric C-14 by approximately 70%. coincides with the beginning of the cold period at 11000 yr B.P. (C-14 age). Thus our results show that a close correlation between climatic records around the globe is possible by using a global signature of changes in atmospheric C-14 content.

Hajdas, Irka↗
NASA NTRS2001

Volcanoes, Polar Clouds and Arctic Ozone

Satellite observations and model calculations show 5 to 10% local column ozone loss in some tropical and mid latitude locations, following El Chichon and Mount Pinatubo eruptions. The rapid deepening of the Antarctic ozone hole in the early 1980s has also been partially attributed to chemistry on volcanic aerosols from a number of large eruptions. Here the effects of volcanoes on Arctic polar processes are explored. Large polar stratospheric cloud particles that cause denitrification cannot form in a volcanically perturbed environment. Denitrification can increase Arctic ozone loss by up to 30% in a future colder climate. However, we show that enhanced chemical processing on volcanic aerosols can increase Arctic ozone loss in a cold year by about 60% independent of denitrification. A coupled chemistry-microphysics model is used to show that widespread distribution of volcanic aerosols in 2000 could have caused severe springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere. While, volcanic aerosols can strongly affect the current Arctic column ozone abundance in a cold year, denitrification effects on ozone can only become important in a much colder lower stratosphere.

Tabazadeh, Azadeh↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Intercomparison of Microphysical Retrieval Algorithms for Upper Tropospheric Ice Clouds

The large horizontal extent, location in the cold upper troposphere, and ice composition make cirrus clouds important modulators of the earth's radiation budget and climate. Cirrus cloud microphysical properties are difficult to measure and model because they are inhomogeneous in nature and their ice crystal size distribution and habit are not well characterized. Accurate retrievals of cloud properties are crucial for improving the representation of cloud scale processes in large-scale models and for accurately predicting the earth's future climate. A number of passive and active remote sensing retrieval algorithms exist for estimating the microphysical properties of upper tropospheric clouds. We believe significant progress has been made in the evolution of these retrieval algorithms in the last decade, however, there is room for improvement. Members of the Atmospheric Radiation measurement program (ARM) Cloud properties Working Group are involved in an intercomparison of optical depth(tau), ice water path, and characteristic particle size in clouds retrieved using ground-based instruments. The goals of this intercomparison are to evaluate the accuracy of state-of-the-art algorithms, quantify the uncertainties, and make recommendations for improvement.

Comstock, Jennifer M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Combined Effect of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Lake Chad Level Variability Region

In this study, the combined effect of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Lake Chad (LC) level variability is explored. Our results show that the lake level at the Bol monitoring station has a statistically significant correlation with precipitation (R2 = 0.6, at the 99.5% confidence level). The period between the late 1960s and early 1970s marked a turning point in the response of the regional rainfall to climatic drivers, thereby severely affecting the LC level. Our results also suggest that the negative impact of the cold phase of AMO on Sahel precipitation masks and supersedes the positive effect of La Niña in the early the 1970s. The drop in the size of LC level from 282.5 m in the early 1960s to about 278.1 m in 1983/1984 was the largest to occur within the period of study (1900-2010) and coincides with the combined cold phase of AMO and strong El Niño phase of ENSO. Further analyses show that the current warm phase of AMO and increasing La Niña episodes appear to be playing a major role in the increased precipitation in the Sahel region. The LC level is responding to this increase in precipitation by a gradual recovery, though it is still below the levels of the 1960s. This understanding of the AMO-ENSO-rainfall-LC level association will help in forecasting the impacts of similar combined episodes in the future. These findings also have implications for long-term water resources management in the LC region.

ENSO↗