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NASA NTRS2020

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, F(M1)(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, F(M2)(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. F(M2)(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Human influence↗

NASA NTRS1990

Climate Impact of Solar Variability

The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the roles of microbes in facilitating plant adaptation to climate change

Plants benefit from their close association with soil microbes which assist in their response to abiotic and biotic stressors. Yet much of what we know about plant stress responses is based on studies where the microbial partners were uncontrolled and unknown. Under climate change, the soil microbial community will also be sensitive to and respond to abiotic and biotic stressors. Thus, facilitating plant adaptation to climate change will require a systems-based approach that accounts for the multi-dimensional nature of plant–microbe–environment interactions. In this perspective, we highlight some of the key factors influencing plant–microbe interactions under stress as well as new tools to facilitate the controlled study of their molecular complexity, such as fabricated ecosystems and synthetic communities. When paired with genomic and biochemical methods, these tools provide researchers with more precision, reproducibility, and manipulability for exploring plant–microbe–environment interactions under a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PowerCell aboard the EuCROPIS satellite - Results from the first synthetic biology experiment in space

Synthetic biology is the design and construction of new biological parts and systems not found in nature, a technology that we believe will be a game-changing technology for space exploration. The PowerCell concept is an ecology based on photosynthetic microbes taking advantage of in situ materials and energy to generate, on-demand, useful products (food, fuel, cloths, drugs, etc.) that satisfy specific needs of long-term human presence away from Earth. This first PowerCell experiment is testing this concept as well as several key mechanisms of engineering biology in a 48-well plate microfluidics system. NASA's PowerCell experiment was loaded in the fluidics system at NASA Ames in May 2016, and subsequently integrated on the DLR's compact satellite Eu:CROPIS (Euglena Combined Regenerative Organic food Production In Space), as a secondary payload. Launched into Earth’s orbit from the Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, USA, in December 3, 2019, the Eu:CROPIS platform has provided an artificial gravity through rotational acceleration, simulating gravity ranges compatible to those found on Mars and on the Moon, as well as microgravity in the absence of acceleration. Each set of biological experiments performed at Earth's orbit was compared to ground controls. Over 400 days' worth of mission data showed that all hardware and software worked as planned, and microbial growth was observed in all four gravity regimes, including growth on cyanobacterial cell extract in three out of four gravity regimes. The genetic transformation experiment was successful in microgravity and provided valuable long-term reagent stability data, including antibiotic efficacy. The demonstrated ability of hardy bacterial spores to recover from a long-term stasis period will be fundamental for deep human space missions. Lessons learned from hardware design to experimental operations are leading to improved designs and capabilities for future missions.

Ivan Glaucio Paulino Lima↗

DOE OSTI2022

Krylov subspace recycling for evolving structures

Krylov subspace recycling is a powerful tool when solving a long series of large, sparse linear systems that change only slowly over time. In PDE constrained shape optimization, these series appear naturally, as typically hundreds or thousands of optimization steps are needed with only small changes in the geometry. In this setting, however, applying Krylov subspace recycling can be a difficult task. As the geometry evolves, in general, so does the finite element mesh defined on or representing this geometry, including the numbers of nodes and elements and element connectivity. This is especially the case if re-meshing techniques are used. As a result, the number of algebraic degrees of freedom in the system changes, and in general the linear system matrices resulting from the finite element discretization change size from one optimization step to the next. Changes in the mesh connectivity also lead to structural changes in the matrices. In the case of re-meshing, even if the geometry changes only a little, the corresponding mesh might differ substantially from the previous one. Obviously, this prevents any straightforward mapping of the approximate invariant subspace of the linear system matrix (the focus of recycling in this work) from one optimization step to the next; similar problems arise for other selected subspaces. In this paper, we present an algorithm to map an approximate invariant subspace of the linear system matrix for the previous optimization step to an approximate invariant subspace of the linear system matrix for the current optimization step, for general meshes. This is achieved by exploiting the map from coefficient vectors to finite element functions on the mesh, combined with interpolation or approximation of functions on the finite element mesh. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach numerically with several proof of concept studies for a specific meshing technique.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Genome‐enabled exploration of microbial ecology and evolution in the sea: a rising tide lifts all boats

Summary As a young bacteriologist just launching my career during the early days of the ‘microbial revolution’ in the 1980s, I was fortunate to participate in some early discoveries, and collaborate in the development of cross‐disciplinary methods now commonly referred to as "metagenomics". My early scientific career focused on applying phylogenetic and genomic approaches to characterize ‘wild’ bacteria, archaea and viruses in their natural habitats, with an emphasis on marine systems. These central interests have not changed very much for me over the past three decades, but knowledge, methodological advances and new theoretical perspectives about the microbial world certainly have. In this invited ‘How we did it’ perspective, I trace some of the trajectories of my lab's collective efforts over the years, including phylogenetic surveys of microbial assemblages in marine plankton and sediments, development of microbial community gene‐ and genome‐enabled surveys, and application of genome‐guided, cultivation‐independent functional characterization of novel enzymes, pathways and their relationships to in situ biogeochemistry. Throughout this short review, I attempt to acknowledge, all the mentors, students, postdocs and collaborators who enabled this research. Inevitably, a brief autobiographical review like this cannot be fully comprehensive, so sincere apologies to any of my great colleagues who are not explicitly mentioned herein. I salute you all as well!

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Miniaturized Hybrid Materials Inspired by Nature (Final Technical Report)

The objective of our research program is to develop a fundamental scientific understanding of assembly in biomolecular materials mediated by mechanisms that mimic complex events in the cellular environment. The building blocks that we study include globular, disordered, and filamentous proteins, lipids, and nucleic acids. Notably, the nanoscale assemblies may either be similar to, or highly distinct from, those occurring in vivo, owing to the complex nature of the systems. Novel assemblies may further result due to controlled shape changes in building blocks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1987

Control augmented structural synthesis with transient response constraints

An integrated approach to the optimum design of control augmented structural systems is presented in which structural variables and control variables are changed simultaneously during the design process. Constraints are imposed on peak transient dynamic displacements and accelerations, static displacements, natural frequencies, and control system effort. Side constraints imposed on structural member sizes and control system thresholds and actuator output forces insure the generation of physically meaningful designs. Example problems are presented which bring out the benefits of simultaneous treatment of both the structural design variables and the control design variables.

Manning, R. A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of fluctuating redox conditions on trace metal release from wetland soils from South Carolina and stream sediments from Tennessee

Natural aquatic systems undergo fluctuating redox conditions due to microbial activity, varying water saturation levels, and nutrients dynamics. With fluctuating oxic and anoxic conditions, trace metals can be mobilized or sequestered in response to changes in iron and sulfur speciation and the concentrations and lability of organic carbon. We conducted a systematic laboratory-based microcosm study to examine the effect of redox fluctuations on trace metal mobility in samples collected from two different natural aquatic systems: riparian wetlands and a stream. We incubated water-saturated soils under three cycles of anoxic-oxic conditions (τanoxic:τoxic = 3) spanning 24 days and monitored the change in dissolved and bioavailable metal (copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), zinc (Zn), cobalt (Co), iron (Fe), and manganese (Mn)) concentrations. The dataset includes the results of the variation in metal concentrations due to redox fluctuations in wetland soils and stream sediments. Additionally, the variation in the bioavailable concentration of metals obtained using passive samplers based on diffuse gradient in thin-films technique is included in the dataset. We have also reported the change in the pH values and dissolved oxygen concentrations in the microcosms during the entire study of 24 days. The dataset also contains the dissolved organic carbon and sulfate concentrations, and the data on fractions of metals bound to reducible and oxidizable phases. For materials from both the wetlands and the stream, anoxic conditions favored Co and Zn release, which corresponded with the reductive dissolution of iron oxides. In contrast, dissolved Cu concentrations increased under oxic conditions for both sites and correlated positively with the release of sulfate. In wetland soils, dissolution of Fe (hydr)oxides increased Ni solubility; however, in stream sediments, Ni release occurred when sulfides or organic matter were oxidized. For stream sediments, each subsequent redox cycle increased the bioavailability of trace metals. Upon redox fluctuations in wetland soils, the bioavailability of Zn and Cu increased, whereas bioavailable Ni and Co decreased. This study illustrates that different trace metals display distinct bioavailability patterns during oxic-anoxic fluctuations in natural environments. The biogeochemical cycling of carbon and nitrogen in systems with redox fluctuations may be influenced by these patterns in trace metal availability in addition to the availability of electron donors and acceptors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory

NASA's Earth System Observatory groundbreaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societal relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitigation, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. Central to the ESO vision is the notion of Open-Source Science (OSS), a collaborative culture enabled by technology that promotes the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge aiming to facilitate and accelerate scientific understanding, and the agile development of applications for the benefit of society. The larger vision of an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) calls for integrated Earth science frameworks that mirror the Earth by a proxy digital construct that includes km-scale resolution Earth system models and data assimilation systems along with an integrated set of analytic tools to enable the next generation of science discoveries and evidence-based decision making. The goal of this project is to develop an Analytic Collaborative Framework for ESO missions, based on realistic, science-based observing system simulations and the Program of Record (PoR). Tying it all together is a cloud-based cyberinfrastructure that will enable each uniquely designed satellite in the Earth System Observatory to work in tandem to create a 3D, holistic view of Earth. In this presentation, we lay the technological groundwork for enabling such a vision. Our approach consists of the 3 main interconnected building blocks: 1. Cloud-optimized representative datasets for ESO missions and the PoR to serve as basis for developing and prototyping an Analytic Collaborative Framework. 2. An Algorithm Workbench for enabling experimentation and exploration of synergistic algorithms not only for instruments within a mission, but also including the PoR and other ESO missions. 3. A series of concrete Open-Source Science demonstrations including use cases that span science discovery and end-user applications with direct societal impact. While our ultimate goal is to include all of the main missions comprising the Earth System Observatory, in our initial 2 years we will focus on AOS and SBG, two missions for which specific synergisms have been identified in a recent workshop. In this presentation we will describe our approach and discuss some illustrative examples of our framework.

Arlindo da SIlva↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Analytic Collaborative Framework for the Earth System Observatory

Arlindo da SIlva↗

DOE OSTI2022

Monitoring Fracture Saturation With Internal Seismic Sources and Twin Neural Networks

Seismic coda-wave analysis is a well-developed method for detecting subtle physical changes in complex media by measuring arrival times in the late-arriving energy from multiply scattered or reflected waves. However, a challenge arises when multiply scattered waves are not sufficiently separated in time from the direct arrivals to provide a clear coda wave train. Additional complications for monitoring changes in fracture systems arise when the signals originate from unsynchronized internal sources, such as natural or induced seismicity, from acoustic emission, or from transportable intra-fracture sources (chattering dust), that generate uncontrolled signals that vary in arrival time, amplitude and frequency content. Here, we use a twin neural network (TNN also known as a Siamese neural network) for dimensionality reduction to analyze signals from chattering dust to classify the fluid saturation state of a synthetic fracture system. The TNN with shared weights generates a low-dimensional representation of the data input by minimizing contrastive loss, serving as the input to a multiclass classifier that accurately classifies whether multiple fractures in a fracture system are fully saturated or partially saturated, or whether a change in saturation has occurred in different fractures in the system. Furthermore, these results show that information buried in unresolved codas from uncontrolled sources can be extracted using machine learning to monitor the evolution of fracture systems caused by physical and chemical processes even when the scattered and direct wave fields overlap.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data for Monitoring Fracture Saturation with Internal Transportable Seismic Sources and Twin Neural Networks

Seismic coda-wave analysis is a well-developed method for detecting subtle physical changes in complex media by measuring arrival times in the late-arriving energy from multiply-scattered or reflected waves. However, a challenge arises when multiply-scattered waves are not sufficiently separated in time from the direct arrivals to provide a clear coda wave train. Additional complications for monitoring changes in fracture systems arise when the signals originate from unsynchronized internal sources, such as natural induced seismicity, from acoustic emission, or from transportable intra-fracture sources (chattering dust), that generate uncontrolled signals that vary in arrival time, amplitude and frequency content. Here, we use a twin neural network (also known as a Siamese neural network) for dimensionality reduction to analyze signals from chattering dust to classify the fluid saturation state of a synthetic fracture system. The twin neural network with shared weights generates a low-dimensional representation of the data input by minimizing contrastive loss, serving as the input to a multiclass classifier that accurately classifies whether multiple fractures in a fracture system are fully saturated or partially saturated, or whether a change in saturation has occurred in different fractures in the system. These results show that information buried in unresolved codas from uncontrolled sources can be extracted using machine learning to monitor the evolution of fracture systems caused by physical and chemical processes even when the scattered and direct wave fields overlap.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1998

NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data. This committee emphasized that the only feasible way to collect these consistent, long-term data is through the use of space-based Earth "remote sensors" (instruments that can measure from a distance things like temperature).

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evolvable Neural Software System

The Evolvable Neural Software System (ENSS) is composed of sets of Neural Basis Functions (NBFs), which can be totally autonomously created and removed according to the changing needs and requirements of the software system. The resulting structure is both hierarchical and self-similar in that a given set of NBFs may have a ruler NBF, which in turn communicates with other sets of NBFs. These sets of NBFs may function as nodes to a ruler node, which are also NBF constructs. In this manner, the synthetic neural system can exhibit the complexity, three-dimensional connectivity, and adaptability of biological neural systems. An added advantage of ENSS over a natural neural system is its ability to modify its core genetic code in response to environmental changes as reflected in needs and requirements. The neural system is fully adaptive and evolvable and is trainable before release. It continues to rewire itself while on the job. The NBF is a unique, bilevel intelligence neural system composed of a higher-level heuristic neural system (HNS) and a lower-level, autonomic neural system (ANS). Taken together, the HNS and the ANS give each NBF the complete capabilities of a biological neural system to match sensory inputs to actions. Another feature of the NBF is the Evolvable Neural Interface (ENI), which links the HNS and ANS. The ENI solves the interface problem between these two systems by actively adapting and evolving from a primitive initial state (a Neural Thread) to a complicated, operational ENI and successfully adapting to a training sequence of sensory input. This simulates the adaptation of a biological neural system in a developmental phase. Within the greater multi-NBF and multi-node ENSS, self-similar ENI s provide the basis for inter-NBF and inter-node connectivity.

Curtis, Steven A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Variability of African Farming Systems from Phenological Analysis of NDVI Time Series

Food security exists when people have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food at all times to meet their dietary needs. The natural resource base is one of the many factors affecting food security. Its variability and decline creates problems for local food production. In this study we characterize for sub-Saharan Africa vegetation phenology and assess variability and trends of phenological indicators based on NDVI time series from 1982 to 2006. We focus on cumulated NDVI over the season (cumNDVI) which is a proxy for net primary productivity. Results are aggregated at the level of major farming systems, while determining also spatial variability within farming systems. High temporal variability of cumNDVI occurs in semiarid and subhumid regions. The results show a large area of positive cumNDVI trends between Senegal and South Sudan. These correspond to positive CRU rainfall trends found and relate to recovery after the 1980's droughts. We find significant negative cumNDVI trends near the south-coast of West Africa (Guinea coast) and in Tanzania. For each farming system, causes of change and variability are discussed based on available literature (Appendix A). Although food security comprises more than the local natural resource base, our results can perform an input for food security analysis by identifying zones of high variability or downward trends. Farming systems are found to be a useful level of analysis. Diversity and trends found within farming system boundaries underline that farming systems are dynamic.

Vrieling, Anton↗

DOE OSTI2020

Annual Scientific Focus Area Report for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Project: Phase II

The project's long-term goal is to assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system models that address the grand challenge of actionable predictions of Earth system variability and change, with an emphasis on the most critical scientific questions facing the nation and DOE. The grand challenge will be addressed by overcoming three major limitations: Pushing the high-resolution frontier of Earth system modeling through a combination of strategic model development and computational advances targeting exascale computers and beyond. Bridging the gap in scales and processes by developing a new class of models that couple the natural, managed, and man-made systems across scales to address energy sector vulnerability to variability and change. The project will achieve its goal through four intersecting project elements: A series of prediction and simulation experiments addressing scientific questions and mission needs; A well-documented and tested, continuously advancing, evolving, and improving system of model codes that comprise the E3SM Earth system model; The ability to use effectively leading (and “bleeding”) edge computational facilities soon after their deployment at DOE national laboratories; and An infrastructure to support code development, hypothesis testing, simulation execution, and analysis of results. To achieve the Grand Challenge of actionable Earth system predictions to address the most critical scientific questions facing our nation and DOE, the E3SM project defined its strategy in a fifteen-year roadmap with four intersecting project elements: A series of prediction and simulation experiments addressing scientific questions and mission needs; A well-documented and tested, continuously advancing, evolving, and improving system of model codes that comprise the E3SM Earth system model ; The ability to use effectively leading (and “bleeding”) edge computational facilities soon after their deployment at DOE national laboratories; and An infrastructure to support code development, hypothesis testing, simulation execution, and analysis of results. Figure 1 depicts the E3SM Project Roadmap, showing the relationships among the first three major project elements: the simulations, the modeling system to perform those simulations, and the machines on which they will be executed. Unlike the other three elements that have distinct but overlapping phases, the fourth element, the infrastructure, will evolve continuously based on the requirements imposed by project needs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reimagining Earth in the Earth System

Abstract Terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems regulate climate at local to global scales through exchanges of energy and matter with the atmosphere and assist with climate change mitigation through nature‐based climate solutions. Climate science is no longer a study of the physics of the atmosphere and oceans, but also the ecology of the biosphere. This is the promise of Earth system science: to transcend academic disciplines to enable study of the interacting physics, chemistry, and biology of the planet. However, long‐standing tension in protecting, restoring, and managing forest ecosystems to purposely improve climate evidences the difficulties of interdisciplinary science. For four centuries, forest management for climate betterment was argued, legislated, and ultimately dismissed, when nineteenth century atmospheric scientists narrowly defined climate science to the exclusion of ecology. Today's Earth system science, with its roots in global models of climate, unfolds in similar ways to the past. With Earth system models, geoscientists are again defining the ecology of the Earth system. Here we reframe Earth system science so that the biosphere and its ecology are equally integrated with the fluid Earth to enable Earth system prediction for planetary stewardship. Central to this is the need to overcome an intellectual heritage to the models that elevates geoscience and marginalizes ecology and local land knowledge. The call for kilometer‐scale atmospheric and ocean models, without concomitant scientific and computational investment in the land and biosphere, perpetuates the geophysical view of Earth and will not fully provide the comprehensive actionable information needed for a changing climate.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗