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NASA NTRS2016

An Invited Preface for the Following Book: Astrobiologia, Uma Ciencia Emergente

Since the dawn of civilization, we have beheld at the beauty and wonder of the natural world around us and wondered how it came to be. We have pondered the past, and have been intrigued about the future. For this we are unique. Our ancestors looked to the vastness of space and thought surely there are others out there. We are now at a new time in human history where we can address these age-old questions with a scientific approach and study rigorously the three big questions of astrobiology: Where do we come from? Where are we going? and Are we alone? These fundamental questions of astrobiology correspond to those of humanity, and arguably, what makes us human. And so we cannot help but be drawn to the field. Unlike other scientific disciplines, Astrobiology draws on the latest advances in a multitude of fields, from evolutionary and molecular biology, to prebiotic and interstellar chemistry, from astrophysics to astronomy, with a healthy dose of earth and planetary science. Astrobiology is in reality a "metadiscipline" drawing on useful science wherever it is to be found. From a practical point of view, this endeavor requires the interaction of scientists who might not normally meet each other, much less work on a common research project. And, unlike most other scientific disciplines, Astrobiology has implications for how we see ourselves, and how we interact with the earth and beyond. "Where do we come from" touches on the "why" questions that have intrigued not just scientists but philosophers and theologians. "Where are we going" adds to these an economic and political involvement that is currently being played out with discussions of climate change. "And are we alone" will someday force us to face the fact that we as living creatures are not unique, or perhaps that we are utterly alone in the universe, the result of a chemical history that was so improbable as to result in a sample size of one. Either result will force ethical considerations of either "the other" and their relationship to us, or our solitude and thus responsibility as the only life form in our cosmos. So what is Astrobiology? Let's start with the "Where do we come from?" A biologist will approach this looking at the evolution of life on earth, using such traditional tools as comparative anatomy and paleontology and newer tools such as molecular techniques. But this doesn't address why this happened the way it did without a comprehensive understanding of the environment. What was the temperature at such and such a time? Was the earth in a snowball phase or being bombarded by meteorites -- or even just a single large, well-placed one such as struck off the Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago. This event could not have been predicted by population genetics alone, yet it had the most profound influence on our evolution as without it, we could still be in a world dominated by dinosaurs with the mammals cowering under cover. But it is not enough to go back to LUCA, the Last Universal Common Ancestor of all extant life. One must go back to the dawn of life. How did life arise? What was the environmental backdrop that allowed it to happen? How did we happen to end up with a habitable planet? Indeed, what is the origin and evolution of our solar system, galaxy, biogenic elements all the way back to the Big Bang. The "Where are we going?" tends to be ignored in many astrobiology programs, but in fact this is of the most immediate importance to us. Whereas the past was dominated by physical and chemical processes, and organismal interactions, the future has a new major player: us. While we probably don't have the power (yet) to stop our galaxy passing through another, or even reset the sun or stop the movement of the moon away from the earth, all of these things will influence the future of life on earth. We are already proving that we have the power to visit other bodies in our solar system, either with humans or our robotic surrogates. We are changing our atmospheric composition and thus our climate. We have the power to render species extinct, including our own. But we also have the power to use these tools for the common good, to extend our lifetimes and reclaim our rivers and forests. Which will it be? And then there is the question where science fiction becomes a reality: "Are we alone?" While many people are anxious to find signs of intelligent life out there, such a creature may not share either our curiosity or values. But what if there was a beneficent alien civilization that could communicate with us, perhaps forging a mutual understanding? More likely in the forseeable future is finding a small life, less evolved, life form. Note I did not use the word "simple" as there is nothing "simple" about life, ever. Which brings us back to the question: what is life? So where does Brazil come in? For nearly a decade there has been interest in a Brazilian astrobiology program, from a small side meeting held by the Brazilian Exobiology Program (BEP) of the Brazilian National Research Council, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 12, 2009, in association with the IAU Assembly to subsequent workshops held in several locations and membership of the Brazilian program in the NASA Astrobiology Institute (NAI). Each time I go to Brazil, I am impressed by the enthusiasm of the community, both scientific and student, the latter an excellent omen for the future of astrobiology in Brazil. Facilities are being built to supplement the natural laboratories that Brazil is blessed to have. In my own lab I have been privileged to have a wonderful Brazilian postdoctoral fellow, Dr. Ivan Paulino-Lima, resulting in a daily reminder of the program. I am honored to have been part of the development of astrobiology in Brazil, and hope that this relationship will continue to flourish. Clearly to advance astrobiology needs new knowledge, a reorganization of that which is known, and space missions. To help the reader join on this quest, what follows is a buffet of topics that will allow the reader to nibble on the richness that is Astrobiology. And, like a fabulous meal, it should make you want more. Welcome to Astrobiology.

Are we alone?↗
NASA NTRS2001

Regulation of sympathetic nervous system function after cardiovascular deconditioning

Humans subjected to prolonged periods of bed rest or microgravity undergo deconditioning of the cardiovascular system, characterized by resting tachycardia, reduced exercise capability, and a predisposition for orthostatic intolerance. These changes in cardiovascular function are likely due to a combination of factors, including changes in control of body fluid balance or cardiac alterations resulting in inadequate maintenance of stroke volume, altered arterial or venous vascular function, reduced activation of cardiovascular hormones, and diminished autonomic reflex function. There is evidence indicating a role for each of these mechanisms. Diminished reflex activation of the sympathetic nervous system and subsequent vasoconstriction appear to play an important role. Studies utilizing the hindlimb-unloaded (HU) rat, an animal model of deconditioning, evaluated the potential role of altered arterial baroreflex control of the sympathetic nervous system. These studies indicate that HU results in blunted baroreflex-mediated activation of both renal and lumbar sympathetic nerve activity in response to a hypotensive stimulus. HU rats are less able to maintain arterial pressure during hemorrhage, suggesting that diminished ability to increase sympathetic activity has functional consequences for the animal. Reflex control of vasopressin secretion appears to be enhanced following HU. Blunted baroreflex-mediated sympathoexcitation appears to involve altered central nervous system function. Baroreceptor afferent activity in response to changes in arterial pressure is unaltered in HU rats. However, increases in efferent sympathetic nerve activity for a given decrease in afferent input are blunted after HU. This altered central nervous system processing of baroreceptor inputs appears to involve an effect at the rostral ventrolateral medulla (RVLM). Specifically, it appears that tonic GABAA-mediated inhibition of the RVLM is enhanced after HU. Augmented inhibition apparently arises from sources other than the caudal ventrolateral medulla. If similar alterations in control of the sympathetic nervous system occur in humans in response to cardiovascular deconditioning, it is likely that they play an important role in the observed tendency for orthostatic intolerance. Combined with potential changes in vascular function, cardiac function, and hypovolemia, the predisposition for orthostatic intolerance following cardiovascular deconditioning would be markedly enhanced by blunted ability to reflexly activate the sympathetic nervous system.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS2005

The NASA Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) Center: A Research to Operations Test Bed

Over the last three years, NASA/MSFC scientists have embarked on an effort to transition unique NASA EOS data/products and research technology to selected NWSEOs in the southeast U.S. This activity, called the Short-term Prediction and - Research Transition (SPoRT) program, supports the NASA Science Mission Directorate and its Earth-Sun System Mission to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth System and its response to natural or human-induced changes that will enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. The overarching question related to weather prediction is "How well can weather forecasting duration and reliability be improved by new space-based observations, data assimilation, and modeling?" The transition activity has included the real-time delivery of MODIS data and products to several NWS Forecast Offices. Local NWS FOs have used the MODIS data to complement the coarse resolution GOES data for a number of applications. Specialized products have also been developed and made available to local and remote offices for their weather applications. Data from &e Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) network has been used in severe storm forecasts at several offices in the region. At the regional scale and forecast horizons from 0-1 day, the next generation of high-resolution mesoscale forecast and data assimilation models have been used to provide local offices with unique weather forecasts not otherwise available. The continued use of near red-time infusion of NASA science products into high-resolution mesoscale forecast and decision-making models can be expected to improve the model initialization as well as short-term forecasts. A current focus of SPoRT is to expand collaborations to include contributions from the assimilation of AMSR-E data in the ADASIARPS forecast system (OU), inclusion of MODIS SSTs and AIRS thermodynamic profiles in the WRF, and to extend the distribution of real-time MODIS and AMSR-E data and products to the Florida coastal WFOs. A SPoRT Test bed, together with input from other interagency and university partners, will provide a means and a process to effectively transition ESE observations and technology to NWS operations and decision makers at both the globdnational and regional scales. The transition of emerging experimental products into operations through the SPoRT infrastructure will allow NASA to foster and accelerate the progress of this Science Mission Directorate research strategy over the coming years.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Activation and proliferation of lymphocytes and other mammalian cells in microgravity

The experimental findings reviewed in this chapter support the following conclusions: Proliferation. Human T-lymphocytes, associated with monocytes as accessory cells, show dramatic changes in the centrifuge, in the clinostat and in space. In free-floating cells the mitogenic response is depressed by 90% in microgravity, whereas in cells attached to a substratum activation is enhanced by 100% compared to 1-G ground and inflight controls. The duration of phase G1 of the mitotic cycle of HeLa cells is reduced in hypergravity, resulting in an increased proliferation rate. Other systems like Friend cells and WI38 human embryonic lung cells do not show significant changes. Genetic expression and signal transduction. T-lymphocytes and monocytes show important changes in the expression of cytokines like interleukin-1, interleukin-2, interferon-gamma and tumor necrosis factor. The data from space experiments in Spacelab, Space Shuttle mid-deck, and Biokosmos have helped to clarify certain aspects of the mechanism of T-cell activation. Epidermoid A431 cells show changes in the genetic expression of the proto-oncogenes c-fos and c-jun in the clinostat and in sounding rockets. Membrane function, in particular the binding of ligates as first messengers of a signal, is not changed in most of the cell systems in microgravity. Morphology and Mortility. Free cells, lymphocytes in particular, are able to move and form aggregates in microgravity, indicating that cell-cell contacts and cell communications do take place in microgravity. Dramatic morphological and ultrastructural changes are not detected in cells cultured in microgravity. Important experiments with single mammalian cells, including immune cells, were carried out recently in three Spacelab flights, (SL-J, D-2, and IML-2 in 1992, 1993, and 1994, respectively). The results of the D-2 mission have been published in ref. 75; those of the IML-2 mission in ref. 76. Finally, many cell biology experiments in space have suffered in the past from a lack of adequate controls (like 1-G centrifuges) and of proper experimental conditions (like well-controlled temperature). In this respect the availability of Biorack, outfitted with proper incubators with 1-G control centrifuge as well as a glovebox with a microscope, is a great advantage. It is also desirable that cell biology experiments in space are accompanied or even preceded by a program of ground-based investigations in the fast rotating clinostat and in the centrifuge, and that preparatory experiments be done in parabolic flights and sounding rockets, whenever possible. Proper publication of the results of space experiments is another important need. A great number of data have been published in proceedings and reports that are not available to the broad scientific community. To guarantee the credibility and the international recognition of space biology it is important that the results be published in international, peer reviewed journals.

manned↗
NASA NTRS2024

Terrestrial Proving Ground Capabilities Needed for Lunar In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) & Construction Concepts of Operation

Incorporating any new technology or system into a human exploration mission or architecture requires development well in advance of the mission to eliminate technology, cost, and schedule risk concerns. It is often stated that technologies need to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 6, i.e. ‘system/subsystem model or prototype demonstration in a relevant environment (ground or space)’, by Authority To Proceed (ATP) or by the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) for the mission at the latest. There are two game changing capabilities for sustained human exploration of space that can have a significant effect on the overall exploration architecture and the technologies and systems included in the architecture. The first game changing capability, known as In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), involves the search for, acquisition, and processing of resources on the Moon and Mars into mission consumables and usable products, and the second is the ability to utilize space resources in the construction of roads, structures, and surface infrastructure. ISRU and surface construction capabilities have the potential to greatly reduce the cost and risk of human exploration while enabling sustained lunar surface and commercial operations. However, ISRU and surface construction systems are complex and must operate in extremely harsh environments, with abrasive regolith and pervasive dust, for long-periods of time, with potentially limited opportunities for maintenance and repair by humans. The complexity of these capabilities and operations also means that there are a limited number of companies that can design, build, and operate end-to-end systems on their own. The majority of the technologies being developed for these systems are by small companies and at the component or subsystem level. With the overarching strategy of the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) to enable industry to implement ISRU and surface infrastructure for Artemis and space commercialization, it is therefore important to establish processes and capabilities to promote and foster collaborations among large and small companies involved in ISRU and surface infrastructure development. For ISRU and infrastructure systems and capabilities to be used in Artemis missions and future commercial lunar surface operations, a coordinated framework with virtual/physical integration and testing locations, or ‘Proving Grounds’, needs to be established and operated on a regular basis and open to all. This paper will discuss the ISRU and surface construction near and long-term concepts of operations, and review operations and lessons-learned from the previous ISRU analog field tests. From this information, requirements and capabilities will be proposed to support and enable the integration and testing of ISRU and construction systems with industry, academia, and international agencies, as well as what facilities and organizations could help establish these Proving Grounds.

ISRU↗
NASA NTRS1999

Monitoring and Correcting Autonomic Function Aboard Mir: NASA Technology Used in Space and on Earth to Facilitate Adaptation

The broad objective of the research was to study individual characteristics of human adaptation to long duration spaceflight and possibilities of their correction using autonomic conditioning. The changes in autonomic state during adaptation to microgravity can have profound effects on the operational efficiency of crewmembers and may result in debilitating biomedical symptoms. Ground-based and inflight experiment results showed that certain responses of autonomic nervous system were correlated with, or consistently preceded, reports of performance decrements or the symptoms. Autogenic-Feedback-Training Exercise (AFTE) is a physiological conditioning method that has been used to train people to voluntary control several of their own physiological responses. The specific objectives were: 1) To study human autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses to sustained exposure to microgravity; 2) To study human behavior/performance changes related to physiology; 3) To evaluate the effectiveness of preflight autonomic conditioning (AFTE) for facilitating adaptation to space and readaptation to Earth; and 4) To archive these data for the NASA Life Sciences Data Archive and thereby make this information available to the international scientific community.

Cowings, P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Preliminary Development of The Intelligent Change Detection System (ICDS): Using Machine Learning to Combat Change Blindness in Remote Operation Environments

The emergence of Advance Air Mobility (AAM) will increase the number and types of aerial vehicles operating in shared airspaces, which will subsequently affect the amount of actionable data that ground control station operators (GCSOs) will be expected to manage. In this environment, GCSOs are particularly susceptible to the visual perceptual phenomenon known as change blindness, in which a stimulus undergoes a change without the change being noticed by its observer. A machine agent designed to detect change blindness and mitigate the effects could improve human agent performance in a data-saturated remote operations environment. The objective of this paper is to describe a proof-of-concept system architecture that integrates real-time eye tracking and vehicle telemetry data to prevent human-agent errors resulting from change blindness while operating aircraft from a remote ground control station (GCS).

Real-Time Streaming Data Architecture↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Preliminary Development of The Intelligent Change Detection System (ICDS): Using Machine Learning to Combat Change Blindness in Remote Operation Environments

The emergence of Advance Air Mobility (AAM) will increase the number and types of aerial vehicles operating in shared airspaces, which will subsequently affect the amount of actionable data that ground control station operators (GCSOs) will be expected to manage. In this environment, GCSOs are particularly susceptible to the visual perceptual phenomenon known as change blindness, in which a stimulus undergoes a change without the change being noticed by its observer. A machine agent designed to detect change blindness and mitigate the effects could improve human agent performance in a data-saturated remote operations environment. The objective of this paper is to describe a proof-of-concept system architecture that integrates real-time eye tracking and vehicle telemetry data to prevent human-agent errors resulting from change blindness while operating aircraft from a remote ground control station (GCS).

Real-Time Streaming Data Architecture↗
NASA NTRS1992

Our Changing Planet: The FY 1993 US Global Change Research Program. A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, a supplement to the US President's fiscal year 1993 budget

The U.S. Global Change Reasearch Program (USGCRP) was established as a Presidential initiative in the FY-1990 Budget to help develop sound national and international policies related to global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The USGCRP is implemented through a priority-driven scientific research agenda that is designed to be integrated, comprehensive, and multidisciplinary. It is designed explicitly to address scientific uncertainties in such areas as climate change, ozone depletion, changes in terrestrial and marine productivity, global water and energy cycles, sea level changes, the impact of global changes on human health and activities, and the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Earth system. The USGCRP addresses three parallel but interconnected streams of activity: documenting global change (observations); enhancing understanding of key processes (process research); and predicting global and regional environmental change (integrated modeling and prediction).

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1988

A graphical, rule based robotic interface system

The ability of a human to take control of a robotic system is essential in any use of robots in space in order to handle unforeseen changes in the robot's work environment or scheduled tasks. But in cases in which the work environment is known, a human controlling a robot's every move by remote control is both time consuming and frustrating. A system is needed in which the user can give the robotic system commands to perform tasks but need not tell the system how. To be useful, this system should be able to plan and perform the tasks faster than a telerobotic system. The interface between the user and the robot system must be natural and meaningful to the user. A high level user interface program under development at the University of Alabama, Huntsville, is described. A graphical interface is proposed in which the user selects objects to be manipulated by selecting representations of the object on projections of a 3-D model of the work environment. The user may move in the work environment by changing the viewpoint of the projections. The interface uses a rule based program to transform user selection of items on a graphics display of the robot's work environment into commands for the robot. The program first determines if the desired task is possible given the abilities of the robot and any constraints on the object. If the task is possible, the program determines what movements the robot needs to make to perform the task. The movements are transformed into commands for the robot. The information defining the robot, the work environment, and how objects may be moved is stored in a set of data bases accessible to the program and displayable to the user.

Mckee, James W.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Gravity as a biochemical determinant

Hypogravity effects on the biochemistry of living organisms are surveyed, and the differences found under orbital, clinostat, and flotation conditions are examined. Changes can be transient - such as altered serum hormone and electrolyte levels in man - and disappear shortly after return to earth, or changes can be more persistent or permanent, as seems to be the case for changes in the skeletal system mineral and protein constituents for humans who have been in space. While plant ethylene and peroxidase both increase under orbital, clinostat, or flotation conditions, 3-PGA-dehydrogenase increases under orbital but not clinostat conditions and cytochrome C reductase and malic dehydrogenase are affected by clinostat but not actual free fall conditions. Reasons for these discrepancies are considered.

Siegel, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Spacelab Life Sciences 1 results

Results are presented from the experiments conducted by the first Shuttle/Spacelab mission dedicated entirely to the life sciences, the Spacelab Life Sciences 1, launched on June 5, 1991. The experiments carried out during the 9-day flight included investigations of changes in the human cardiovascular, pulmonary, renal/endocrine, blood, and vestibular systems that were brought about by microgravity. Results were also obtained from the preflight and postflight complementary experiments performed on rats, which assessed the suitability of rodents as animal models for humans. Most results verified, or expanded on, the accepted theories of adaptation to zero gravity.

Seddon, Rhea↗
NASA NTRS2005

Proper Criteria of Nonlinear Optical Crystals for Space Laser Systems and the Possible Causes for Space Laser Failures

NASA is striving to develop a scientific understanding of the universe and the Earth-Sun System and its response to natural or human-induced changes. Space lasers are vital tools for NASA's missions to advance our understanding of space research and improving our prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. Unfortunately, several past space missions that utilized lasers proved to be short-lived and unreliable. In this paper, we are reporting the results of our investigations on several nonlinear optical crystals, which are vital components in space lasers. Examples of these investigations are: The correlation of the phase diagrams of nonlinear crystals and its durability, the effect of radiating these crystals by high-energy beams of protons and gamma on their second harmonic efficiency, and measurements of the high-energy and low-energy thresholds for each crystal before and after irradiation. A set of proper criteria for these crystals will be presented. We will also discuss the possible causes of failures in a space laser and propose a solution to a contamination problem in all future space lasers.

Abdeldayem, Hossin A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Cole, Stuart K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

On the Moral Hazard of Autonomy

This paper describes the concept of moral hazard as applied to technologies that incorporate automation and autonomy. Moral hazard is said to exist when a party to a transaction feels more comfortable taking undue risks because another party will bear the costs if things go badly. As opposed to regular physical hazards, a moral hazard comes from within a person. In this paper, we reveal two categories of moral hazards related to autonomy. The first category of moral hazard occurs when the owner of the autonomy introduces an autonomous system without accepting the full responsibility for improper operation thereby shifting the risks from one party to another party. This category of moral hazard is similar to moral hazards experienced in other industries and can often be addressed through appropriate policy and establishing liability for irresponsible behavior. The issue becomes more complicated in cases where the operator of the autonomy may not have a full understanding of the system behavior. In the second category of moral hazard, risks are shifted from people to autonomy. In this category, the humans in proximity to the autonomous system begin to trust its behavior. Their behavior may change in that they may believe they are more insulated from harm and subsequently exhibit more risky behavior towards increasingly autonomous technologies. Mitigating this type of moral hazard may require the autonomy to possess certain design features to discourage this type of harmful human behavior so that humans do not suffer needlessly in their interactions with autonomous systems by placing inappropriate trust where that trust is neither warranted nor deserved.

Cybernetics↗
NASA NTRS2014

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

Human error cannot be defined unambiguously in advance of it happening, it often becomes an error after the fact. The same action can result in a tragic accident for one situation or a heroic action given a more favorable outcome. People often forget that we employ humans in business and industry for the flexibility and capability to change when needed. In complex systems, operations are driven by their specifications of the system and the system structure. People provide the flexibility to make it work. Human error has been reported as being responsible for 60%‐80% of failures, accidents and incidents in high‐risk industries. We don't have to accept that all human errors are inevitable. Through the use of some basic techniques, many potential human error events can be addressed. There are actions that can be taken to reduce the risk of human error.

DeMott, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Ozone–Climate Penalty Over South America and Africa By 2100

Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (O3) concentrations, known as the “ozone–climate penalty”, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the response of surface O3 to changing climate is relatively understudied but has important consequences for air pollution and human and ecosystem health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface O3 due to climate change over South America and Africa using three state-of-the-art Earth system models that follow the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 emission scenario from CMIP6. In order to quantify changes due to climate change alone, we evaluate the difference between simulations including climate change and simulations with a fixed present-day climate. We find that by 2100, models predict an ozone–climate penalty in areas where O3 is already predicted to be high due to the impacts of precursor emissions, namely urban and biomass burning areas, although on average, models predict a decrease in surface O3 due to climate change. We identify a small but robust positive trend in annual mean surface O3 over polluted areas. Additionally, during biomass burning seasons, seasonal mean O3 concentrations increase by 15 ppb (model range 12 to 18 ppb) in areas with substantial biomass burning such as the arc of deforestation in the Amazon. The ozone–climate penalty in polluted areas is shown to be driven by an increased rate of O3 chemical production, which is strongly influenced by NOx concentrations and is therefore specific to the emission pathway chosen. Multiple linear regression finds the change in NOx concentration to be a strong predictor of the change in O3 production, whereas increased isoprene emission rate is positively correlated with increased O3 destruction, suggesting NOx-limited conditions over the majority of tropical Africa and South America. However, models disagree on the role of climate change in remote, low-NOx regions, partly because of significant differences in NOx concentrations produced by each model. We also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone–climate penalty in the Congo Basin has greater inter-model variation than that in the Amazon, so further model development and validation are needed to constrain the response in central Africa. We conclude that if the climate were to change according to the emission scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of high O3 exposure, irrespective of any direct impacts on O3 via the prescribed emission scenario.

Surface ozone↗